Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Thursday Morning

Crude oil extended fall from 83.95 to as low as 72.65 before recovering. Downside momentum is a bit unconvincing with 4 hours MACD staying above signal line. Nevertheless, further decline is still in favor as long as 75.42 minor resistance holds. Next target will be a retest of 68.59 support. On the upside, above 75.42 will indicate that a short term bottom is possibly formed and should bring strong recovery then.

In the bigger picture, upside momentum is clearly diminishing as seen in bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. However, there is no confirmation that medium term rise has topped out yet as long as 68.59 support holds. Such medium term rise could still continue and above 83.95 will target 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. Nevertheless, even in such case, we'll continue to look for reversal signal and expect crude oil to top out finally as it approaches 90 level. On the downside, break of 68.59 support will confirm that a medium term top is in place and will turn outlook bearish for a retest on 33.2 low as correction from 147.27 resumes.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

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Crude Oil Pivot, Support and Resistance Numbers For Thursday Morning

Crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering and is trading above the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 73.95. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 72.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.36 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Thursdays pivot point for crude oil is 73.80

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.36
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.13

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 72.65
Second support is December's low crossing at 72.45

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Natural gas was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.591 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

Natural gas pivot point for Thursday is 5.282

First resistance is broken trading range support crossing at 5.327
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.507

First support is the overnight low crossing at 5.130
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919

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The U.S. Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.90 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 79.26
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.26
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.90

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Crude Oil, Natural Gas and U.S Dollar Commentary For Wednesday Evening

Crude oil closed lower on Wednesday and below the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 73.95. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signal that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends today's decline, December's low crossing at 72.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.40 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Crude oil pivot point for Wednesday evening is 73.83

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.94
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.40

First support is today's low crossing at 72.65
Second support is December's low crossing at 72.45

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Natural gas closed lower on Wednesday and below trading range support crossing at 5.327. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends today's decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.114 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.622 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.

Natural gas pivot point for Wednesday evening is 5.280

First resistance is broken trading range support crossing at 5.327
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.559

First support is today's low crossing at 5.182
Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.114

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The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways prices are possible near term.

If March extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 79.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.87 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 79.01
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 79.71

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.05
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.87

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Crude Oil Falls to a Five Week Low in New York as Gasoline Supplies Rise

Crude oil and gasoline fell to five week lows after a U.S. government report showed inventories of the motor fuel rose to a 22 month high. Oil dropped as much as 2.8 percent after the Energy Department said that gasoline supplies climbed 1.99 million barrels to 229.4 million last week, the highest level since March 2008. Oil stockpiles tumbled amid expectations that they would increase.

“The crude number was certainly supportive for prices, but the product numbers were negative,” said Tom Bentz, senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. “We headed for some new lows and the selling dried up.” Crude oil for March delivery fell $1.45, or 1.9 percent, to $73.26 a barrel at 1:38 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil touched $72.65, the lowest level since Dec. 21.

Oil supplies dropped 3.89 million barrels, or 1.2 percent, to 326.7 million, the department said. They were forecast to rise 1.5 million barrels in the Bloomberg survey, according to the median estimate of 19 analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. Gasoline stockpiles were estimated to increase 900,000 barrels.

“The only bullish number in today’s report was crude oil, and that was apparently due to the closure of the Houston Ship Channel,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. The Houston Ship Channel, which serves the largest U.S. petroleum port, reopened Jan. 21 after shutting two days earlier because of fog.....Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil Pivot, Support and Resistance Numbers For Wednesday Morning

Crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates above the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 73.95. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 72.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.07 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Wednesday's pivot point for crude oil is 74.64

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.07
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.47

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 73.82
Second support is December's low crossing at 72.45

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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Wednesday Morning

With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, some more sideway trading could be seen in crude oil and another recovery might be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 76.52). Nevertheless, fall fro 83.95 is still in favor to continue as long as 79.16 resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 68.59 to 83.95 at 74.46 will target a retest on 68.59 support. However, note that break of 79.16 will indicate that fall from 83.95 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, upside momentum is clearly diminishing as seen in bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. However, there is no confirmation that medium term rise has topped out yet as long as 68.59 support holds. Such medium term rise could still continue and above 83.95 will target 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. Nevertheless, even in such case, we'll continue to look for reversal signal and expect crude oil to top out finally as it approaches 90 level. On the downside, break of 68.59 support will confirm that a medium term top is in place and will turn outlook bearish for a retest on 33.2 low as correction from 147.27 resumes.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Where is Crude Oil Headed on Wednesday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




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New video: Are These Markets in Trouble?

The recent run up in the markets and the fact that the markets have exceeded some key Fibonacci retracement levels has lured many investors into believing that this will be a "V" shaped recovery this time around.

For months now we have voiced our concerns that all the major indexes are in the "thin air". This new short video explores that and looks at a key Japanese candlestick formation that could really make a difference and be the first clue in the demise of the Dow.

We also want to share with you a specific number to look for in February. Should this level be broken, then it will signal a major reversal to the downside for the Dow.

Just click here to watch the new video and as always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to sign up or register to watch them. Please take a minute to leave a comment and let us know what you think.


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Oil Falls as Dollar Strengthens Versus Euro, Analysts Forecast Supply Gain

Crude oil fell to a five week low as the dollar strengthened against the euro, reducing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. Oil dropped as much as 1.9 percent as the U.S. currency gained against its major counterparts on speculation China will take further steps to cool its economy, discouraging demand for higher yielding assets. A U.S. Energy Department report tomorrow will probably show oil supplies rose last week, based on a Bloomberg News survey of analysts.

“It’s a further erosion of prices exacerbated somewhat by a stronger dollar today,” said Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics LLC, an Austin, Texas based energy consultant. “If we see another big build in crude tomorrow, I think you’ll just see the market move lower.”

Crude oil for March delivery dropped 63 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $74.63 a barrel at 10:15 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, it touched $73.82 a barrel, the lowest since Dec. 22. Futures fell 8.8 percent in the two weeks through yesterday. The U.S. currency strengthened 0.6 percent to $1.4062 per euro as of 9:46 a.m. New York time, from $1.4151 yesterday.

Oil stockpiles probably climbed 1.58 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 22 from 330.6 million the prior week, according to the median of 18 analyst estimates in the survey of analysts. Oil inventories were 6.5 percent above the five year average in the week ended Jan. 15. Refining rates, already at their lowest outside the Atlantic hurricane season since at least 1989, probably fell 0.1 percentage point, according to the Bloomberg survey.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Taking a Fall and Threatens to Take The Markets Along, Here's Your Numbers

Crude oil was lower overnight and is poised to extend last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends last week's decline, December's low crossing at 72.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.69 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday, our line in the sand is 74.91

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.69
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.69

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 74.01
Second support is December's low crossing at 72.45

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Natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidated some of last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends last Friday's rally, the January's high crossing at 6.027 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.604 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

Tuesday's pivot point for natural gas is 5.749

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 5.804
Second resistance is December's high crossing at 6.027

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.604
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.327

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The U.S. Dollar was higher overnight hinting that the correction off last week's high might be ending. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends last week's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.84 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 79.00
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.87
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.84

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