Crude Rises After Dollar Weakens, Report Shows Gain in Consumer Spending

Crude oil rose after the dollar dropped against the euro and U.S. manufacturing increased at the fastest pace since August 2004, signaling that fuel use in the world’s biggest energy consuming country will gain.

Oil climbed as much as 1.8 percent as the weak dollar bolstered the appeal of commodities. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index advanced to 58.4, higher than anticipated, from December’s 54.9, figures from the Tempe, Arizona-based group showed. A separate report showed that European manufacturing gained last month.

“The first factor at work is the weaker dollar,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “The ISM number was very strong. The strength isn’t just here, European manufacturing is also expanding.”

Crude oil for March delivery rose 95 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $73.84 a barrel at 11:31 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures fell to $72.89 on Jan. 29, the lowest settlement since Dec. 21.

The greenback slipped 0.4 percent versus the euro to $1.3911, from $1.3863 on Jan. 29.

The U.S. manufacturing figure exceeded economists’ median forecast of 55.5, according to 67 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Readings higher than 50 signal an expansion. Manufacturing accounts for about 12 percent of the economy.

European manufacturing also accelerated more than estimated in January. An index of manufacturing in the 16-nation euro region increased to 52.4 from 51.6 in December, London-based Markit Economics said today.....Read the entire article.

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Traders Ditching Oil Hoarded At Sea As Market Tightens

The amount of oil held in tankers at sea has halved from its April 2009 peak of 90 million barrels according to ship broker ICAP. Given that much of this oil was held in order to arbitrage current vs. future oil prices, a reduction in floating storage implies a tightening of the oil market.

WSJ: ICAP said there were currently 21 trading VLCCs offshore with some 43 million barrels of crude. Seven of these are expected to discharge in February and one more in March. So far, it appeared those discharged cargoes wouldn't be replaced by new ones.

"I haven't seen any fixtures for VLCC storage in the last two weeks," said Simon Newman, ICAP's senior tanker analyst. "That would imply that storage looks set to fall in the short term."

Assuming there are no new fixtures, the amount of crude in storage could sink to 27 million barrels by March, the lowest level since the current contango play began in late 2008.

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Weaker Dollar Pushes Crude Oil Higher, Bears Still have The Advantage

Crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.10 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Crude oil pivot point for Monday, our line in the sand is 73.38

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.10
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.41

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 72.43
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.70

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Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends last week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.547 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Monday's pivot point for natural gas is 5.170

First resistance is broken trading range support crossing at 5.327
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.417

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 5.060
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919

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The U.S. Dollar was slightly lower due to light profit taking overnight after testing resistance marked by the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.07 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 79.76
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.73
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.07

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Iraq Seals Deal with Russia's Lukoil-led Group

A consortium grouping Russia's private oil giant Lukoil and Norway's Statoil ASA on Sunday signed a final deal to develop one of Iraq's biggest oil fields, capping an auction process key to the OPEC nation's plans to boost output and generate sorely needed reconstruction revenues. The deal on West Qurna Phase 2 field in southern Iraq is the last of the 10 fields that Iraq awarded last year during two international licensing rounds as it looked to revamp an oil sector battered by years of sanctions, neglect and, most recently, postwar violence and political bickering.

The signing Sunday also offers some much needed political capital for Iraqi officials as they head into elections in March determined to show that they are actively turning the country around following the turmoil and instability that has defined Iraqis' daily lives since the 2003 U.S. led invasion to topple Saddam Hussein. "These contracts will bring in cash to Iraq, and move ahead plans to develop the infrastructure," said Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani, adding that these deals afforded Iraqis the chance to "look toward a bright future."

Although it sits atop the world's third largest proven reserves of conventional crude, Iraq currently only produces about 2.5 million barrels per day, a level still far below its pre-2003 war output. Officials say international companies like Lukoi and Statoil, which together won West Qurna Phase 2 in the December licensing round, are key to raising that output to over 12 million barrels per day in about six years.

Such production, viewed by analysts as unrealistic in that timeframe, would rival Saudi Arabia's. The kingdom, seen as the de facto leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, currently produces over 8 million barrels per day, but has an overall output capacity in excess of 12 million barrels per day.

For the 15 international firms that won development rights in the various fields, the 20 year contracts were their first chance at access to Iraq since Saddam expelled foreign firms and nationalized the sector in the 1970s. Despite the tempting spoils, the auction results were mixed, with only 10 deals struck out of the 21 oil and gas fields offered during the two licensing rounds.....Read the entire article.

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Weekly Fundamental Outlook For Crude Oil

Despite brief rebound to 74.82 after release of strong USD GDP, crude oil price dived to one month low at 72.43 amid rally in USD. The benchmark contract ended the week at 72.89, losing -2.2% on weekly basis and recorded the third consecutive weekly decline after surging to 83.95, the highest level in 15 months, in the beginning of January.

Fundamentals in the US energy market remain weak. The US Energy Department reported crude oil inventory dropped -3.89 mmb to 326.7 mmb in the week ended January 22. Cushing stocks also drew-0.69 mmb, the 5th consecutive weekly decline. We believe the main reason for the huge decline in crude stocks was the closure of the Houston Ship Channel, which serves the largest US petroleum port, shut for 2 days because of fog. It was reopened on January 21. Also, the oil-tanker spill in the Sabine Neches Waterway has led refiners to cut back production. We expect to see another draw next week as the oil spill is still impacting imports.

Both gasoline and distillate rose +1.99 mmb to 229.4 mmb and +0.36 mmb to 157.5 mmb respectively. Demand for gasoline edged slightly high on weekly basis but the level at 8.619M bpd remained below last year's level. Beware that last year's demand was very weak as it was in the midst of the worst of economic crisis. Distillate inventory built modestly compared with market exception or a draw. Imports surged +142%, on weekly basis, to 0.658M bpd, the highest level never seen since 2006. Demand dropped -2.6% to 3.725M bpd during the week. The level was still -12.5% below last year's level.

In coming few years, oil demand will be heavily relying on growth in Asian market. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), preliminary data indicated that China's total oil demand soared +16.4% yoy in November, driven by both government spending and supply disruption due to cold weather. Demand is anticipated to have increase +7.2% to 8.5M bpd in 2009, followed by a +4.3% rise to 8.8M bpd in 2010. China takes up almost 10% of world oil demand and that's why market sentiment has deteriorated dramatically after China guided yields higher, increased required reserve ratio and limited bank lending. The market worried that the growth engine will lose momentum this year.

Other than China, India is another hot spot. Total oil demand probably rose +5.4% in 2009, followed by another +3% this year. Robust oil consumption in India was driven by gasoline demand which, in turn, was due to strong car sales.....Read the entire article.



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Companies Say Alaska Gas Pipeline Could Cost $41Billion

Companies working with the state of Alaska to develop a major natural gas pipeline estimated Friday that the project would cost $20 billion to $41 billion, depending on the route. The Alaska Pipeline Project seeks to move natural gas from the harsh North Slope to market in Alaska, through Canada and to the Lower 48.

The high end of the estimate is at least a billion more than earlier thought, but project officials believe the pipeline is economically viable and could start carrying gas in about 2020. More details of the plan came in a filing Friday with federal regulators, the first step toward an "open season," when companies behind the project will court gas producers and try to secure commitments for shipping deals.

TransCanada Corp., based in Calgary, Alberta, is working with Irving, Texas based Exxon Mobil Corp. to advance the project. The state of Alaska has promised to reimburse up to $500 million of eligible costs. A rival project by Britain's BP PLC and Houston-based ConocoPhillips is also moving ahead, though its difficult for many, given the economics involved, to see more than one project going forward.

Tony Palmer, TransCanada vice president of Alaska Development, told reporters Friday that he believes the best and most effective way to bring the project forward is to form an alliance between the state, TransCanada and the North Slope's current major players, Exxon Mobil, BP and ConocoPhillips. It's during open season when shippers interested in moving gas to markets in Alaska and outside the state indicate which their preferred route.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Low Range Close Sets The Stage For Lower Open on Monday

Crude oil closed lower on Friday and spiked below support marked by December's low crossing at 72.45. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signal that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March extends today's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.74 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.60. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.74. First support is today's low crossing at 72.43. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.70.

Natural gas closed lower on Friday and tested the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.114. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.560 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is broken trading range support crossing at 5.327. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.456. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 5.060. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Friday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways prices are possible near term. If March extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 79.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.98 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 79.65. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 79.71. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 78.48. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.98.

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Crude Oil Rises in New York After U.S. Economy Grows More Than Expected

Crude oil rose for the first time in four days after a government report showed that the U.S. economy expanded at the fastest pace in six years, signaling demand may rise in the world’s biggest energy market. Oil climbed as much as 1.6 percent after the Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product grew by 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter, exceeding the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. It was the best performance since the third quarter of 2003. Oil has lost 6.9 percent in January, the first monthly decline since July.

“It’s a good GDP number, and frankly that’s what the market needed to see,” said Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis. “If there are any doubters out there that the economy is not in recovery, this should quash that.” Crude oil for March delivery increased 71 cents, or 1 percent, to $74.35 a barrel at 10:10 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, it touched $74.82.

Oil has fallen 12 percent since reaching a 15-month high of $83.95 a barrel on Jan. 11 amid concern the U.S. government will limit trading by banks and that China will take further steps to cool its economy. China is the fastest-growing energy market.
“We might have gotten more of a bounce off this GDP number if the Chinese weren’t raising the reserve requirements for the banks and slowing lending,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in Chicago.....Read the entire article.

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Phil Flynn: You Don’t Say

Sometimes is not about what you say, it's about what you do not say. In the big Fed statement yesterday, one lone rouge inflation hawk dared to stand up and say, Hey guys, it is our job to worry about inflation. The lack of a comment about the housing market left traders wondering whether it was a glaring omission or perhaps it was an admission to the fact that the Fed is under a lot of political pressure. The Fed also changed their wording on inflation prospects from inflation would remained subdued for some time to it "likely" would remained subdued.


Ah yes, the changing face of politics where everything remains the same. Obama tried to move to the right though overall, at times he seemed a bit contradictory. Obama tried to reach out to the energy sector by embracing drill, drill, drill, nuclear power and clean coal technology as long as we at same time have a lot of money for “big green”. Oh yes you have to take care of the "big green” lobby as they spent millions to put him in office and they expect billions of green dollars back in return. And don’t forget he also said he would repeal "tax breaks” for oil companies and give tax breaks to big green. The Robin Hood energy plan: take from the rich and then run the energy companies and then give their money to the poor inefficient green energy companies.

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Chevron Rakes in $3.1Billion, Earnings Down 37%

Chevron Corporation reported earnings of $3.07 billion ($1.53 per share-diluted) for the fourth quarter 2009, compared with $4.90 billion ($2.44 per share-diluted) in the fourth quarter 2008. Earnings in the 2008 quarter included a gain of approximately $600 million on an upstream asset exchange transaction. Foreign currency effects reduced earnings in the 2009 quarter by $67 million, compared with a benefit to income of $478 million a year earlier.

Full year 2009 earnings were $10.48 billion ($5.24 per share-diluted), down 56 percent from $23.93 billion ($11.67 per share-diluted) in 2008.

Sales and other operating revenues in the fourth quarter 2009 were $48 billion, compared with $43 billion in the year ago quarter. For the full year 2009, sales and other operating revenues were $167 billion, versus $265 billion in 2008. The decrease in the twelve month period was primarily due to lower prices for crude oil, natural gas and refined products.

"Earnings decreased in 2009 as a result of lower crude oil and natural gas prices and a decline in refined product sales margins, driven by a weak global economy," said Chevron’s Chairman and CEO, John Watson. "In this challenging environment, Chevron's successes in operational reliability and cost management made valuable contributions to our bottom line. Our financial strength enabled continued investment in our excellent portfolio of capital and exploratory projects and an increase in the annual dividend on our common shares for the 22nd consecutive year.....Read the entire article.


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