Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook Wednesday Morning

Intraday bias in crude oil remained neutral for the moment and retreat from 80.51 could extend further to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 77.69) But still, rise fro 69.50 is in favor to continue as long as 75.69 support holds. Above 80.51 will target a retest on 83.95 high. However, note that Break of 75.69 will argue that rebound from 69.50 has completed and will turn focus back to this low.

In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The strong rebound from 72.43 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Oil Rises After Dollar Declines, Report Shows Drop in U.S. Crude Supplies

Crude oil rose in New York after an industry report showed U.S. stockpiles declined and the dollar dropped, increasing the incentive to buy commodities.

Crude inventories fell 3.14 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute said late yesterday. The drop is counter to analysts’ expectations of an increase in a U.S. Energy Information Administration report due today. The dollar snapped two days of gains against the euro as the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates to support economic growth.

“Everyone is expecting a 2 million barrel build but you’ve got API showing a 3 million barrel draw,” said Clarence Chu, a trader with options dealers Hudson Capital Energy in Singapore. “This is making people nervous but they’re waiting to see the EIA numbers to confirm. The dollar will continue to be significant in terms of moving the market.”

Crude oil for April delivery rose as much as 47 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $79.33 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $79.21 at 13:03 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, futures declined 1.6 percent to settle at $78.86.

Prices also gained today as the dollar fell against the euro. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is expected to tell Congress in testimony starting today that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s increase in discount interest rate last week won’t be a prelude to changes in the benchmark borrowing costs. The dollar traded at $1.3534 per euro at 12:47 p.m. Singapore time, from $1.3507 yesterday.....Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil Bulls Lose Round Two, Hold Slight Advantage For Wednesday

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off this month's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If May extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 81.63 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.33 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Tuesday evening's pivot point, our line in the sand is 79.26

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 81.15
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 81.63

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.78
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.33

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Natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it extends last Friday's breakout below the lower boundary of this month's trading range, which crosses at 5.060. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends this week's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.734 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.281 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.

Natural gas pivot point for Tuesday evening is 4.856

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.221.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.281.

First support is today's low crossing at 4.773
Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.734

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The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Tuesday ending a two day correction off last Friday's high but remains below the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this winter's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 82.92 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.04 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 81.43
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 82.92

First support is today's low crossing at 80.15
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.04



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Tension Builds As British Start Drilling For Oil In Contested Falkland Islands

The most hotly contested piece of land in the world has just discovered oil.

British oil and gas exploration company Desire Petroleum started drilling today sixty miles off coast of the Falkland Islands. The South Atlantic territory may contain 3.5 billion barrels of oil and significant quantities of natural gas, according to CNN.

But the enterprise risks reigniting a sovereignty dispute between Argentina and the UK, which led to a two month war in 1982.

Although the islands are occupied by British troops and pay tribute to the Queen, they are self governed and self supporting.

President Cristina Fernandez has ruled out any military action to stop the drilling, according to the AP. However, she is leading a diplomatic campaign that may face the emergent powers of Latin America against the lame duck empire.

Argentina has unilateral regional support in its claim to the islands, including the vociferous backing of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez.

Reuters:
"The British are desperate for oil since their own fields in the North Sea are now being depleted," Chavez said in a televised speech. When will England stop breaking international law? Return the Malvinas to Argentina!"

"The English are desperate, the Yankees are desperate and here we have the biggest petroleum reserves in the world," Chavez said.



Author Gus Lubin is a writer at The Business Insider





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New Video: Looking At Silver for All the Wrong Reasons

Late in 2009 a lot of folks began asking us about buying silver instead of gold. At the time, we stated exactly how we felt, in that, why would you try to buy something that is not in the same league as gold? The two markets are completely different and are driven by a different set of emotions and fundamentals.

This is the first video that we have done on silver in quite some time, but we think it's an important one for you to see.

One of the standout features that I noticed was the fact that when gold was making new all time highs in early December, silver failed to take out the March 2008 high. I consider this to be a negative.

In this short video you will very quickly see how we feel about silver and how you can benefit from looking at this market from a different perspective.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. We hope you find this video both informative, educational, and enjoyable and that you have time to leave a comment.


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Crude Oil Drops More Than $2 as U.S. Consumer Confidence Falls

Crude oil fell more than $2 a barrel as confidence among U.S. consumers dropped in February to the lowest level in 10 months, a signal that energy demand may be slow to recover.

Oil for April delivery decreased as much as 2.6 percent from a five week high as the Conference Board’s confidence index weakened to 46, lower than anticipated, from a revised 56.5 in January. A report earlier today showed German business confidence declined for the first time in 11 months in February.

“This is a huge drop from the Conference Board,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in Chicago. “If consumers are going back into the hole, the likelihood of gasoline demand being strong is pretty weak.”

Crude oil for April delivery declined $1.94, or 2.4 percent, to $78.37 a barrel at 10:15 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, it touched $78.22 a barrel.
Yesterday, the March contract expired at $80.16, capping a five day rally of 8.1 percent.

The Ifo institute in Munich reported earlier today that its business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, fell to 95.2 from 95.8 in January. Economists expected a gain to 96.1, according to the median of 37 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.....Read the entire article.


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Traders Come to Their Senses, Crude Oil Trades Sharply Lower

Crude oil plummets in European session as investors see price above 80 not justifiable with weak fundamentals. Crude oil traded sharply lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If May extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 81.63 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.32 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 80.25

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 81.15
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 81.63

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.77
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.32

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Natural gas was lower overnight as it extends last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends the overnight decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.734 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.285 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Natural gas pivot point for Tuesday is 4.904

First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at 5.008
Second resistance is broken trading range support crossing at 5.060

First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.841
Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.734

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The U.S. Dollar was higher overnight hinting that the two day correction off last Friday's high might be ending. Despite the overnight rally, March remains below the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.03 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March extends this winter's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 82.92 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 81.43
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 82.92

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.03
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 79.61

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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Tuesday

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line again, an intraday top is in place at 80.51 and bias is turned neutral. Some consolidations could be seen, with risk of retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 77.40). But downside should be contained above 75.69 support and bring another rise. Above 80.51 will target a retest on 83.95 high. However, note that Break of 75.69 will argue that rebound from 69.50 has completed and will turn focus back to this low.

In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The strong rebound from 72.43 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support is now needed to indicate that crude oil has topped out.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Where is Crude Oil Headed on Tuesday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




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Crude Oil Bulls Continue to Maintain Slight Near Term Advantage

Crude oil closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off this month's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 80.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.30 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 80.51
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 80.72

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.30
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.30

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Natural gas gapped down and closed lower on Monday as it extended last Friday's breakout below the lower boundary of this month's trading range, which crosses at 5.060. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends today's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.734 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.323 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.265
Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.323

First support is today's low crossing at 4.841
Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.734

Is Gold Poised to Go Higher or Lower?

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Monday due to profit taking as it consolidates below the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this winter's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 82.92 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.93 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 81.43
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 82.92

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.31
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.93

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