Crude Oil Prices Will Be Driven by the Externals This Week

From CME Group contributor Dominick Chirihella......

Last week was all about jawboning out of Europe. First from ECB President Draghi followed up by comments from Germany's Merkel reinforcing Draghi's main comment that the ECB will do everything to support the euro. Support for this type of comment from Merkel is very important as Germany is where the money is. For now the jawboning was enough to send many risk asset markets into a modest end of the week short covering rally. However, we can't lose sight that these type of comments have been coming out of Europe for the last three years and so far the sovereign debt issues are still not solved.

The big question is will the bold comments finally be converted to actions. Especially this coming week as the ECB holds its monthly meeting on Thursday August 2. Will the ECB initiate a bold solution that puts the EU problems on the back burner once and for all which has not been the case for the last several years. Will they simply lower short term interest rates and issue the usual support of the euro comments or will their actions include stimulus and some form of bond backing or buying of bonds from the troubles EU member states?

Whatever the ECB decides to do this week the market is now expecting actions that will support the debt problems and drive down the bond yields of the problem countries as well as send the euro into a much longer lasting rally that goes well beyond a simple modest short covering rally like we saw the last two trading days of last week. With the market now trading over the last few session with a strong ray of hope that the ECB and the EU will finally get a handle on the problems any disappointment next week will result in a huge push to the downside in the euro as well as in global equity markets.

Who said August is a quiet and sleepy time for global risk asset markets? Yes many participants are at the peak of the summer vacation season coupled with the London Summer Olympics at its peak but that is not going to prevent the markets from potentially active and volatile trading over the upcoming week and possibly for the rest of the summer. In addition to what is setting up to be a major ECB meeting on Thursday the US Federal Reserve FOMC will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday with many expecting the Fed to embark on a new round of quantitative easing of some form. The US economy has slowed to just a 1.5% growth rate a decline of 0.5% from the first quarter. The employment situation is not getting any better and the plethora of economic data that has hit the media airwaves over the last month or so has been supportive of further slowing of the US economy.

Is there enough negative data to support the Fed taking action now (as a recent WSJ article suggested) or will the Fed take a wait and see of what comes out for the ECB on Thursday while it awaits more data points like Friday's latest nonfarm payroll data? A new round of easing out of the US Fed is not a slam dunk at this meeting in my opinion. I think there are many reasons why it will be prudent for the Fed to wait another month or two before initiating a new round of easing that many believe will have limited success in bolstering the US economy and spurting the private sector hiring process. I do not think the Fed will act at this meeting and save their next so called silver bullet until the end of August at the Jackson Hole symposium (possibly mentioned in Bernanke's speech) or until the mid September FOMC meeting.

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Still Doubting COT Favorite SeaDrill? SDRL

If you are still doubting the crew at Seadrill's (SDRL) ability to keep up with the current dividend this may be yet another reason to....think again. The latest news of a $4 billion commitment for the use of three offshore rigs in the Gulf of Mexico should assuage concerns about the company's ability to contract out all the rigs it has ordered as speculation rigs. Calculating the contract works out to $576,800 per rig per day over six plus years and increases SDRL's contract revenue backlog by nearly a third.

Here is your free trend analysis for SDRL

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EIA: Rail Deliveries of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products up 38% in First Half of 2012

How To Position Yourself for a 10 Year Pattern Breakout

Railroads are playing a more important role in transporting U.S. crude oil to refineries, especially oil production from North Dakota's Bakken formation where there is limited pipeline infrastructure to move supplies. The amount of crude oil and petroleum products transported by U.S. railways during the first half of 2012 increased 38% from the same period in 2011, according to industry data.

The number of rail tanker cars hauling crude oil and petroleum products totaled close to 241,000 during January-June 2012 compared to 174,000 over the same period in 2011, according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR). Rail deliveries of crude oil and petroleum products in June alone jumped 51% to 42,000 tanker cars from a year earlier to an average weekly record high of 10,500 tanker cars for the month.

One rail tanker car holds about 700 barrels. This would be equivalent to about 927,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) of oil and petroleum products shipped, on average, during the first half of 2012 versus 673,000 bbl/d in the same period in 2011, and June 2012 shipments were almost 980,000 bbl/d.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on Association of American Railroads.
Note: Crude oil and petroleum products rail shipments do not include ethanol. 

In 2009, crude oil accounted for 3% of the combined deliveries in the oil and petroleum products category tracked by AAR. The trade group estimates crude oil now accounts for almost 30% of the rail deliveries in this category, and says that crude oil is responsible for nearly all of the recent growth.

Much of the growth in shipping oil by rail is due to the rise in North Dakota's oil production, which has more than tripled in the last three years. North Dakota surpassed California in December 2011 to become the third biggest oil producing state and took over the number two spot from Alaska in March 2012.

Most crude oil is moved in the United States by pipeline. However, because of limited pipeline infrastructure in North Dakota's Bakken region, oil producing companies there rely on rail to move their barrels. Shipping oil by rail costs an average $10 per barrel to $15 per barrel nationwide, up to three times more expensive than the $5 per barrel it costs to move oil by pipeline, according to estimates from Wolfe Trahan, a New York City based research firm that focuses on freight transportation costs. Wolfe Trahan also notes that using rail tank cars allows oil producers to separate grades of crude more easily and ensure their purity than when different oils are mixed in a pipeline.

Argus Media reports that rail rates for unit trains moving Bakken oil to major refining centers on the Gulf Coast are about $12.75 per barrel to St. James, Louisiana and $12.25 per barrel to Port Arthur, Texas. The unit train delivery rate to New York Harbor is around $15 per barrel.
BNSF is the biggest railway mover of U.S. crude, transporting one-third of Bakken oil production alone with unit trains carrying up to 85,000 barrels of oil. The company's carloadings of crude oil and petroleum products increased 60% during the first six months of 2012.

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Chevron Reports Second Quarter Net Income of $7.2 Billion

SP500, Russell 2K, Dollar Index and Gold’s – Fake out or Shakeout?

Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) today reported earnings of $7.2 billion ($3.66 per share – diluted) for the second quarter 2012, compared with $7.7 billion ($3.85 per share – diluted) in the 2011 second quarter.

“Our second quarter earnings and cash flow were among our strongest ever, even with softer oil markets,” said Chairman and CEO John Watson. “Despite current weakness in the global economy, we continue to invest in our long term growth projects to help deliver affordable energy to meet future demand. We took several important steps to advance our major upstream capital projects, in particular achieving milestones in our natural gas development projects in the Asia-Pacific region. We also expanded our global exploration resource acreage, including new leases in the Gulf of Mexico where we already hold a significant position.”

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SP500, Russell 2K, Dollar Index and Gold’s – Fake out or Shakeout?

 From The Technical Traders.......

Today has been quite a trading session with risk assets rocketing higher after Mario Draghi of the European Central Bank reiterated what has already been stated. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is posting some nice gains, but price has not taken out the recent ascending trendline illustrated in the daily chart of SPX shown below. Until that ascending trendline is taken out, the bears remain in control of the price action.

S&P 500 Index (SPX) Daily Chart

Today’s rally has certainly served to work off short term oversold conditions. With the first GDP estimate for the 2nd Quarter scheduled for tomorrow things could get interesting. In the meantime, the closing price today is key. My expectation is that we will not see the S&P 500 Index push back above the ascending trendline today. For the price action to flip back bullish, we need a much stronger than expected GDP result tomorrow.

Another key daily chart which helps provide support that the bears remain in control of the price action is the Russell 2000 Index (RUT). The RUT has given back roughly 50% of its entire move and at this point has failed to even regain the 200 period moving average on the daily chart. Price action would need to climb over 20 points to simply backtest the breakdown level illustrated below.

Russell 2000 Index (RUT) Daily Chart

As long as the RUT holds below the key rising trendline, the bulls must be questioned. However, should the S&P 500 Index and the RUT push back above the ascending trendlines on their daily charts I will become much more constructive regarding the short to intermediate time frames for risk assets.

The other key chart of the day can be found no further than the U.S. Dollar Index futures. The U.S. Dollar Index futures absolutely collapsed today and move all the way down to test the 50 period moving average on the daily chart. So far, the short-term rising trendline has offered support along with the 50 period moving average and the Dollar has bounced sharply higher.

U.S. Dollar Index Futures Daily Chart

As long as price holds above the short-term rising trendline, the Dollar will be able to continue to push higher from this level. Should a breakdown occur we have even more support below around the $81 price level. After a move this strong, it could take days and maybe even weeks for the Dollar to regain its footing. However, the forthcoming Federal Reserve announcement next week will likely seal the Dollar’s fate.

Gold and silver futures are both trading nicely higher on the session in light of the weaker Dollar. However, both precious metals have faded later today as the Dollar started to drift back to the upside. Gold and silver are trying to breakout, but we need to see some continuation before I intend to get involved.

Gold Futures Daily Chart

Sometimes weak breakouts in price action can lead to ugly reversals. I’m not suggesting that a failed breakout will occur in gold and silver futures, but I remain cautious as the breakout so far does not have me totally convinced. Volume in silver is not spiking like it should be and gold volume is also weak considering the possibility that major breakouts are taking place.  Another element that is simply not confirming with strong price action or volume is the gold miners. On a day like today, all that they can muster is a relatively small gain on super light volume. Caution is warranted!

Oil futures are also not shooting considerably higher even though the Dollar remains under pressure. To me, today seems like it could be a misdirection day based on the price action and lack of volume we are seeing to the upside in hard assets like gold, silver, and oil. In addition, volume in the major equity indices and futures is super light. For now, I am going to remain cautious and will likely look to avoid taking on any major risk until the dust settles on the GDP number and the Fed’s future decision. Sometimes sitting in cash is not so bad after all!

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Is Gold Ready to Run to All Time High?

Just under two weeks ago I updated my subscribers with a chart pattern on the GLD ETF, and in that update we discussed what to look for to find clues in this GOLD consolidation that has continued from last August-September highs. My theory all along has been that we peaked in a “Wave Three” top at 1900-1920 last fall after a Fibonacci 34 month rally from $681 per ounce. The ensuing corrective patterns are part of a normal “Wave 4” consolidation that works off the sentiment and overbought nature of that wave 3 updraft. Following this consolidation, I fully expect GOLD to continue past the $1900 per ounce area and run to $2300 per ounce or higher in a Wave 5 rally into the summer of 2013.

What can we continue to watch for clues though as to when this new uptrend begins? Specifically a close over 158 on the GLD ETF (About $1630 on the GOLD Charts) would confirm that the wave 4 lows are in at the $1520 area and the early stages of Primary wave 5 to the upside have begun. The only downside risk I have near term between now and October is if we drop below 153 on the GLD ETF, it would likely point to GOLD dropping to the $1445-$1455 per ounce area, the same low target I have had for 9 plus months now as the worst case downside.

Advice would be to start scaling into long positions on a break over 158 on the GLD ETF and adding on pullbacks along the way up. If we can’t break 158 then the advice is to sit back and watch before acting.

Below is the chart I completed for my subscribers about fourteen or so days ago, and we continue to use it as our short term indicator for the next leg up or down. Eventually, gold will run to all time highs, we simply would like to time our entry and reduce our risk as much as possible.

If you would like to receive occasional free weekly reports on the SP 500, gold and silver  sign up at Market Trend Forecast and or take advantage now of a one time 33% off discount code to subscribe and receive updates five days a week.

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National Oilwell Varco Announces Second Quarter 2012 Earnings

How To Position Yourself for a 10 Year Pattern Breakout

National Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NYSE: NOV) today reported that for its second quarter ended June 30, 2012 it earned net income of $605 million, or $1.42 per fully diluted share. Earnings per share increased 26 percent compared to the second quarter of 2011 and were sequentially flat compared to the first quarter of 2012. Excluding transaction charges of $28 million pre tax, second quarter 2012 net income was $626 million, or $1.46 per fully diluted share.

The Company’s revenues for the second quarter of 2012 were $4.7 billion, which improved 10 percent from the first quarter of 2012 and 35 percent from the second quarter of 2011. Operating profit for the second quarter of 2012 was $907 million or 19.2 percent of sales, excluding transaction charges. Year over year second quarter operating profit increased 27 percent and sequentially second quarter operating profit increased three percent.

Backlog for capital equipment orders for the Company’s Rig Technology segment was $11.28 billion at June 30, 2012, up nine percent from the end of the first quarter and up 46 percent from the end of the second quarter of 2011. During the second quarter of 2012 the Company’s Rig Technology segment booked incoming new capital equipment orders of $2.73 billion (through a combination of $2.22 billion in new orders and $0.51 billion in orders through acquisitions completed during the quarter) offset by revenues out of backlog of $1.82 billion.

Pete Miller, Chairman, President and CEO of National Oilwell Varco, remarked, “Our Company achieved strong earnings this quarter, thanks to the hard work of our many dedicated employees. All three segments posted higher sequential and year over year revenues and operating profit, and we are pleased at the high level of demand we continue to see for new drilling equipment.

The Company continues to expand organically as well as through acquisitions. We closed six transactions during the quarter for total consideration of $2.0 billion, to strengthen the technology, product and service offerings we provide our oil and gas customers around the globe. Most markets we serve have remained buoyant, despite lower commodity prices, and we therefore expect solid results for the second half of the year.”

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Exxon Mobil Announces Second Quarter 2012 Results

How To Position Yourself for a 10 Year Pattern Breakout

Exxon Mobil Corporation free trend analysis > NYSE:XOM

		Second Quarter						First Half
		2012		2011		%		2012				2011		%
Earnings Excluding Special Items 1
$ Millions		15,910		10,680		49		25,360				21,330		19
$ Per Common Share
Assuming Dilution		3.41		2.18		56		5.41				4.32		25
Special Items
$ Millions		0		0				0				0
Earnings
$ Millions		15,910		10,680		49		25,360				21,330		19
$ Per Common Share
Assuming Dilution		3.41		2.18		56		5.41				4.32		25
Capital and Exploration
Expenditures - $ Millions		9,339		10,306		-9		18,173				18,127		0

EXXONMOBIL'S CHAIRMAN REX W. TILLERSON COMMENTED....


“Second quarter results reflect our ongoing commitment to develop and deliver the energy needed to help meet global demand and underpin economic recovery and growth. Despite global economic uncertainty, we continue to invest throughout the business cycle taking a long-term view of resource development.


“Second quarter earnings of $15.9 billion included a net gain of $7.5 billion associated with divestments and tax-related items. Excluding these items, second quarter earnings were $8.4 billion.


“Capital and exploration expenditures were $9.3 billion in the second quarter and a record $18.2 billion for the first six months of 2012 as we progress our plans to invest about $37 billion per year over the next five years to help meet the global demand for energy.


“The Corporation distributed $7.7 billion to shareholders in the second quarter through dividends and share purchases to reduce shares outstanding.”


SECOND QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS

• Earnings of $15,910 million increased $5,230 million or 49% from the second quarter of 2011. Earnings included a net gain of $7.5 billion associated with divestments and tax-related items.
• On June 1, ExxonMobil completed the restructuring of its Downstream and Chemical holdings in Japan. Under the restructuring, TonenGeneral Sekiyu K.K. (TG) purchased ExxonMobil’s shares in a wholly-owned affiliate in Japan for approximately $3.9 billion. As a result, ExxonMobil’s effective ownership of TG was reduced from 50% to 22%.
• Earnings per share (assuming dilution) were $3.41, an increase of 56%.
• Capital and exploration expenditures were $9.3 billion, down 9% from the second quarter of 2011.
• Oil-equivalent production decreased 5.6% from the second quarter of 2011. Excluding the impacts of entitlement volumes, OPEC quota effects and divestments, production was essentially flat.
• Cash flow from operations and asset sales was $13.9 billion, including proceeds associated with asset sales of $3.7 billion.
• Share purchases to reduce shares outstanding were $5 billion.
• Dividends per share of $0.57 increased 21% compared to the second quarter of 2011.
• ExxonMobil and Rosneft signed agreements to jointly develop tight oil reserves in Western Siberia and establish a joint Arctic Research Center for Offshore Developments.
• ExxonMobil has filed permit applications to progress plans for a world class petrochemical expansion on the U.S. Gulf Coast, in anticipation of a 2016 start-up. The potential project would include a new ethane cracker and premium product facilities at ExxonMobil’s integrated Baytown complex in Texas.
• ExxonMobil and joint venture partner Saudi Basic Industries Corporation will proceed with construction of a world scale specialty elastomers facility. The 400 thousand metric tons per year facility will be integrated with the existing Al Jubail complex in Saudi Arabia, and completion is anticipated in 2015.
  
  Read the entire earnings report at ExxonMobil.Com

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Spot Natural Gas Prices at Marcellus Trading Point Reflect Pipeline Constraints

How To Position Yourself for a 10 Year Pattern Breakout

Daily natural gas spot prices between Tennessee Gas Pipeline (TGP) Zone 4 Marcellus and Henry Hub have diverged recently largely due to rising Marcellus production, which has outpaced the growth of available take away pipeline capacity in northern Pennsylvania. As a result, the spot price of natural gas at the TGP Zone 4 Marcellus trading point has fallen, at times considerably, below the spot price at Henry Hub in Louisiana, and is currently the least expensive wholesale natural gas in North America.

To address this rapid growth in natural gas production, several Northeast interstate pipeline projects were completed in 2011, adding nearly 1.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of capacity in Pennsylvania. Many additional pipeline projects have been proposed or are in various stages of completion in the Northeast to reduce transportation constraints caused by growing Marcellus natural gas production. EIA's website has information on the status of some of these pipeline projects.



Dry natural gas production in Pennsylvania, a key part of the Marcellus supply basin, continues to grow and according to Bentek Energy is now approaching 6 Bcf/d. Estimated June 2012 Marcellus dry natural gas production (5.7 Bcf/d) has nearly doubled since June 2011 (2.9 Bcf/d) and represents about 9% of overall U.S. dry natural gas production. Further, Bentek Energy estimates that there are over 1,000 natural gas wells that have been drilled in northern Pennsylvania but which are not yet producing natural gas because there is not enough interstate and gathering pipeline infrastructure to accommodate the new production.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration based on Bentek Energy, LLC.

Note: Reflects monthly averages of Bentek Energy's daily estimates of dry natural gas production for the state of Pennsylvania. These figures exclude a small amount of natural gas production received directly by local distribution companies and end users via gathering lines that are not subject to Federal Energy Regulatory Commission posting requirements for interstate natural gas pipelines.     

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Offshore Oil Expansion Passes U.S. House as Obama Considers Veto

How To Position Yourself for a 10 Year Pattern Breakout

The Republican led U.S. House of Representatives passed legislation opening the California and Virginia coasts for offshore oil drilling, defying a presidential veto threat.

The measure, if approved by the Senate, would replace President Barack Obama’s 2012-2017 leasing plan, almost doubling total sales to 29 from 15 and speeding auctions off the north coast of Alaska.

“We can do better than the president’s proposed plan, and our nation deserves better,” said Representative Doc Hastings, a Washington Republican and bill sponsor. “By passing this bill, we are standing up for American energy and American jobs and moving our country forward.”

Republicans and the American Petroleum Institute, the largest trade group representing the energy industry, criticized Obama for limiting access to offshore resources after the record 2010 spill at a BP Plc (BP) well in the Gulf of Mexico.

The administration “strongly opposes” the measure and senior Obama advisers would recommend a veto, according to a July 23 statement of administration policy. The Senate, where Democrats have a majority, doesn’t plan to take up similar legislation.

The Interior Department has held two auctions for drilling leases since BP’s Macondo well blow out, killing 11 workers and spewing about 4.9 million barrels of oil into the Gulf of Mexico.

In an auction last month, Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) offered $406.6 million, or 24 percent of all winning bids, to drill in the central Gulf of Mexico, followed by Statoil ASA (STO) with $333.3 million, the Interior Department said June 20.

Chevron Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp., Apache Corp., LLOG Exploration Offshore LLC, Stone Energy Corp., Noble Energy Inc. and ConocoPhillips were among companies submitting winning bids, according to a list posted June 20 on the Interior Department website.

The bill is H.R. 6082.

Posted courtesy of Bloomberg News and Katarzyna Klimasinska. Katarzyna can be reached at kklimasinska@bloomberg.net

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