EIA: Saudi Arabia was world's largest petroleum producer and net exporter in 2012

Saudi Arabia was the world's largest producer and exporter of petroleum and other liquids in 2012, producing an average of 11.6 million barrels per day (bbl/d) and exporting an estimated 8.6 million bbl/d (net). Saudi Arabia produces more than three times as much of these liquids as the next largest member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Iran), and as much as the rest of the Arab Middle East put together.

In addition to leading the world in production and exports, Saudi Arabia has an estimated 268 billion barrels of proved oil reserves, over 16% of the global total, and is the only country in the world with extensive spare oil production capacity, which can help cushion market disruptions. While Saudi Arabia has about a hundred major oil and natural gas fields, more than half of its proved reserves are contained in eight fields. Saudi Arabia's (and the world's) largest oil field (Ghawar) alone contains an estimated 70 billion barrels of proved reserves, more than the proved reserves in all but seven other countries.

 

In 2012, 16% of Saudi liquids exports were sent to the United States, accounting for 13% of total U.S. liquids imports. While Canada is the prime supplier of U.S. liquids imports, Saudi Arabia remains an important supplier.

Although leading the world in exports, Saudi Arabia's own liquids consumption is growing. Unlike the United States, Saudi Arabia uses significant amounts of oil for electricity generation, reaching as much as one million bbl/d during hot summer months. Electric demand has doubled since 2000 and is expected to continue its rapid growth. Without initiatives to facilitate fuel switching and increase efficiency, growing volumes of oil, expensive in relation to other fuels, will be consumed domestically.

Finally, as EIA has previously discussed, the choice of accounting conventions for measuring liquids production can also affect which country is considered the world's leading producer at a given date.

Get John Carter's new "Options Trading Strategies for 2013"

Size Doesn't Matter.....Your Account Size that Is

More and more traders are trying their luck in the options trading game. But it has nothing to do with luck. It simply has to do with "time decay", the inevitable passing of time and the hope of reducing your risk and improving your odds of taking a profit before the clock runs out.

This is not an area of the market that anyone should blindly take a spin at. You need to understand the adjustability and broad range of trade structure that allows you to profit whether you are confronting a low volatility market, sideways or consolidating conditions, or a high volatility marketplace.

We get messages here at The Crude Oil Trader on a regular basis asking us to recommend options set ups and make suggestions on our members trades. We pass these messages on to one of two options traders that have become the most highly regarded options traders around. J.W. Jones and John Carter.

This week John has put together a video for us explaining how he is using options as income trades, no matter what the account size. What's interesting is he literally "gives" us the set ups that he uses on his own accounts. You need to see why these trades can be used on any size account and still be profitable. I think this will interest a lot of home gamers and pros alike who are trying to break into options trading. A market that has grown by 500% in the last decade.

One of the things that has made so many people resistant to options trading is just how complicated the talking heads on TV make options trading sound as they rush through their trade of the week. John teaches more about options income trading in a few minutes then you've read in most books.

Here's just a sample of what John will show us in this short video......

* How he made $52,875.00 last week trading Google Options

* His favorite options trading strategy for generating income

* Trading Setups with a probability of 75%

* How to limit your risk when the trade goes against you and much more

Grab a pen and paper so you can take some notes then just click here to watch the video. It's only 12 minutes long and in that short time I think John will change your mindset when it comes to options.

Final Stages of the Advance on SP 500....The Wave Pattern

Our trading partner David Banister has been projecting a potential rally pivot at 1552-1576 for many weeks now. The recent drop to 1485 although harrowing, was a normal fibonacci retracement of the last major rally leg to 1531 pivot highs. Banister believes that this 5 wave advance 1343 pivot lows is nearing an end based on mathematics and relationships to prior waves 1-3.

At 1569 the SP 500 would mark a perfect fibonacci relationships to waves 1-3 for this final 5th wave to the upside. In the big picture, we are still working higher off the 1010 pivot lows on the SP 500, and this rally takes 5 full waves to complete. He thinks we are near wave 3 highs, and wave 4 correction would be up next, followed by another thrust to highs if all goes well this year.

That all said, a multi-week correction and consolidation wave 4 pattern is likely once we pivot at 1552-1576. We should expect this correction to retrace anywhere from 80 -100 points on the SP 500, but one week at a time.

Click here to see his updated pattern views and sign up for free reports.

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Gold, Crude Oil & the SPX Trends and Setups

Over the past year our long term trends and outlooks have not changed for gold, oil or the SP500. Though there has been a lot of sideways price action to keep everyone one their toes and focused on the short term charts.

As we all know if the market does not shake you out, it will wait you out, and sometimes it will do both. So stepping back to review the bigger picture each weeks is crucial in keeping a level trading/investing strategy in motion.

The key to investing success is to always trade with the long term trend and stick with it until price and volume clearly signals a reversal/down trend. Doing this means you truly never catch the market top nor do you catch market bottoms. But the important thing is that you do catch the low risk trending stage of an investment (stage 2 – Bull Market, Stage 4 Bear Market).

Lets take a look at the charts and see where prices stand in the grand scheme of things.

Gold Weekly Futures Trading Chart:

Last week to talk about about how precious metals are nearing a major tipping point and to be aware of those levels because the next move is likely to be huge and you do not want to miss it.

Overall gold and silver remain in a secular bull market and has gone through many similar pauses to what we are watching unfold over the past year. As mentioned above the gold market looks to be trying to not only shake investors out but to wait them out also with this 18 month volatile sideways trend.

A lot of gold bugs, gold and stock investors of mining stocks are starting to give up which can been seen in the price and selling volume for these investments recently. We are contrarians by nature so when we see the masses running for the door we start to become interested in what everyone is unloading at bargain prices.

Gold is now entering an oversold panic selling phase which happens to be at major long term support. This bodes well for a strong bounce or start of a new bull market leg higher for this shiny metal. If gold breaks below $1500 – 1530 levels it could trigger a bear market for precious metals but until then we're bullish at this price. We think we could see another spike lower in gold to test the $1500- $1530 level this week but after that it could be off to the races to new highs.

 

Crude Oil Weekly Trading Chart:

Crude oil had a huge bull market from 2009 until 2011 but since then has been trading sideways in a narrowing bullish range. We expect some big moves this year for oil and technical analysis puts the odds on higher prices. If we do get a breakout and rally then $130 will likely be reached. But if price breaks down then a sharp drop to $50 per barrel looks likely.



Utility & Energy Stocks – XLU – XLE – Weekly Investing Chart

The utility sector has done well and continues to look very bullish for 2013. This high dividend paying sector is liked by many and the price action speaks for its self. If the overall financial market starts to peak then these sectors should hold up well because they are services, dividend and a commodity play wrapped in one.


 

SP500 Trend Daily Chart:

The SP500 continues to be in an uptrend which we are trading with until price and volume tells us otherwise. But there are some early warning signs that another correction or a full blown bear market may be just around the corner.

Again, sticking with the uptrend is key, but knowing what to look for and prepare for is important so that when the trend does change your transition from long positions to short positions is a simple measured move in your portfolios.



Weekend Trend Conclusion:

In short, we remain bullish on stocks and commodity related stocks until I see a trend change in the SP500.

Energy sector is doing well and looks bullish for the next month. As for gold and gold miners, we feel they are entering a low risk entry point to start building a new long position. Risk is low compared to potential reward.

When the price of a commodity or index trade near the apex of a narrowing range or major long term support/resistance level volatility typically increases as fear and greed become heightened which creates larger daily price swings. So be prepared for some turbulence in the coming weeks while the market shakes things up.

If you like our work then be sure to get on our free mailing list to get these emails each week on various investments and investment ideas.



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How to Trade POMO Manipulation

This week I talked about how the uptrend is to be the focus of trading positions until a down trend is actually confirmed via price and volume action. The SP500 was very close to reversing down this week but with the POMO’s (permanent open market operations) scheduled largest injection of money for February of over $5 billion dollars sent stocks soaring jamming stocks back up into its uptrend.

Take a look at the normal daily injections and then look at Feb 27th’s....



SP500 Futures 10 Minute Chart Zoomed Back 48 Hours....



SP500 Trend – Green, Orange, Red candles indicate trend direction....



Short Term Trading Conclusion:

Following the bigger underlying trend of the market along with the big money will keep you on the right side of the market more times than not. My trading strategy which is now programmed into my trading system clearly tells me the current market trend, entry signals, profit taking, stop adjustments and exit prices.

Creating a proven trading strategy which works in all market conditions and having it programmed to do 95% of the analysis for you keep my trading emotions in check, saves me time and money and keeps things simple which is the key for long term success. So keep your eye on the POMO’s injection schedule each month for days to focus on long day trades or entry points for swing trades.

Receive Free Weekly Reports, Trading Tips and my Book at The Gold & Oil Guy.com

Chris Vermeulen
 

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Gold, Silver and Miners Remain Junk Grade Investments

Since silver and gold topped in 2011 investors have been struggling with these positions hoping this cyclical bull market for metals continues. The simple truth is no one knows for sure if prices will continue and make new highs and those who say its a for sure thing we all know deep down is full of bull crap.

All investments move in cycles, waves or trends which ever you want to call it. The market has 4 simple yet distinct stages each require a completely different skill set and trading tactics to navigate.

Stage 1 – After a period of decline a stock consolidates at a contracted price range as buyers step into the market and fight for control over the exhausted sellers. Price action is neutral as sellers exit their positions and buyers begin to accumulate the stock.

Stage 2 – Upon gaining control of price movement, buyers overwhelm sellers and a stock enters a period of higher highs and higher lows. A bull market begins and the path of least resistance is higher. Traders should aggressively trade the long side, taking advantage of any pullback or dips in the stock’s price.

Stage 3 – After a prolonged increase in share price the buyers now become exhausted and the sellers again move in. This period of consolidation and distribution produces neutral price action and precedes a decline in the stock’s price.

Stage 4 – When the lows of Stage 3 are breached a stock enters a decline as sellers overwhelm buyers. A pattern of lower highs and lower lows emerges as a stock enters a bear market. A well positioned trader would be aggressively trading the short side and taking advantage of the often quick declines in the stock’s price. More times than not all of stage 2 gains are given back in a short period of time.



Now that you know the stages and what it looks like its time to review the gold, silver and miners charts.

Gold Chart – Weekly

Gold has been in a bull market for several years but is starting to show its age in terms of the size of the price patterns, volume levels and extreme bullish sentiment. Back in 2011 a week before price topped we exited precious metals because the short term charts and volume levels were warning of a sharp drop. Since then I have not done many trades in either gold or silver because I do not like shorting in bull markets. Waiting for a bullish setup/price pattern before getting involved is my focus.

Gold has pulled back with a bullish 5 wave correction the last 5 months and at key support. While the long term charts are pointing to higher gold prices you must be aware that if gold and silver start to breakdown things will likely get ugly quickly. To be honest I do not care which way it goes, I just want it to either rally from support here and make new highs or breakdown and crash. Both will be very profitable if traded properly.



Silver Chart – Weekly

Silver has a very similar chart to that of its big sister (yellow gold). This shiny metal has the energy of a 3 year old making it a very volatile investment. I have touched on the topic of gold and silver being so called safe havens and if you have been reading my work for a while you know that any investment that can move 18-45% in value within 1 month is NOT a safe haven.

While it has done well in the past decade and boosted a lot of retirement accounts the day will come with these things collapse and most people holding them will give back most if not all the gains they had simply because people get attached to large positions and most do not know when to just exit a position.



Gold Miners Chart – Monthly

This chart gives me cold sweats because I know how many people own gold mining stocks and I know how fast these things can move. If the price closed below the green support line the bottom could fall out and be very painful for those who get paralyzed by denial and do nothing but watch their accounts lose value week after week.



Precious Metals Investing Conclusion:

In short, this report is to show you the very basics of how investments move in stages. It is also to show a warning that precious metals are technically very close to a major breakdown which the big money players are watching closely. This thinly traded sector can move extremely fast when everyone rushes for the door.

Do not get me wrong, I am not saying a crash is about to happen, actually it’s the opposite. All I am doing is planning the idea in your subconscious so that if prices continue to move lower you will remember that these price levels and take action with your investments. Remember, you can always buy the investment back at any time again if the outlook changes in a week, month or year.

Just click here to get My FREE Weekly Gold, Silver and Mining Reports and Trade with the Stages

Chris Vermeulen

Playing the ABC Gap fill for swing trading entry at ATP

From guest analyst David Banister....

One of my favorite “Crowd Behavioral” patterns is the ABC Gap fill pattern. This is a normal correction pattern in the stock market that works off overbought sentiment. You can apply this to liquid individual stocks in most cases, and look ahead to spot potential entries on your watch list for trading.

A sample we will use today is KORS, a fast growth stock of the leading luxury retailer Michael Kors. We notified our subscribers several days in advance to watch for a gap fill at $57 on this stock before entering a long trade. We also spotted what looked like a classic C wave pattern coming down from a B wave interim top.

Sure enough it took several days but the stock worked its way down to $57 and hit the gap on the nose on February 26th. It immediately reversed to end the day $2.25 higher or about 4-5% swing gains on this pattern. The chart below shows a 1, 2, 3, and 4 pattern with ABC making up the 4 pattern on KORS stock.

At ATP, we look for ABC and other patterns in growth plays and swing trade them long for reversals, just as the crowd of traders has stopped out and gone sour on the stock. Consider joining us by learning more at The Active Trading Partners.com



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Gold, Copper, and Crude Oil Forecasted the Recent Selloff in the S&P 500

Nobody better in the industry at understanding herd mentality then the staff at The Technical Traders. And of course they have been telling us it would be like this.....you just have to know which herd to watch and when.....

For the past several weeks, everywhere I looked all I could find was bullish articles. After the fiscal cliff was patched at the last second, prices surged into the 2013 and have since climbed higher all the way into late February.

I warned members of my service that this runaway move to the upside which was characterized by a slow grinding move higher on excessively low volume and low volatility would eventually end violently. I do not have a crystal ball, this is just based on my experience as a trader over the years.

Unfortunately when markets run higher for a long period of time and just keep grinding shorts what typically follows is a violent selloff. I warned members that when the selloff showed up, it was likely that weeks of positive returns would be destroyed in a matter of days.

The price action in the S&P 500 Index since February 20th has erased most of the gains that were created in the entire month of February already and lower prices are possible, if not likely. However, there are opportunities to learn from this recent price action.

There were several warning signs over the past few weeks that were indicating that a risk-off type of environment was around the corner. As a trader, I am constantly monitoring the price action in a variety of futures contracts in equities, currencies, metals, energy, and agriculture to name a few.

Besides looking for trading opportunities, it is important to monitor the price action in commodities even if you only trade equities. In many cases, commodity volatility will occur immediately prior to equity volatility. Ultimately the recent rally was no different.

As an example, metals were showing major weakness overall with both gold and silver selling off violently. However, what caught my eye even further was the dramatic selloff in copper futures which is shown below.

Copper Futures Daily Chart



As can be seen above, copper futures had rallied along with equities since the lows back in November. However, prices peaked in copper at the beginning of February and a move lower from 3.7845 on 02/04 down to recent lows around 3.5195 on 02/25 resulted in roughly a 7% decline in copper prices over a 3 week period.

As stated above, commodity volatility often precedes equity volatility. As can be seen above, copper futures appear to be reversing during the action today and many times commodities will bottom ahead of equities.

I want to be clear in stating that equities will not necessarily mirror the action in commodities or copper specifically, but some major volatility was seen in several commodity contracts besides just metals. Oil futures were also coming under selling pressure as well.

Crude Oil Futures Daily Chart



As can be seen above, oil futures topped right at the end of January and then sold off briefly only to selloff sharply lower a few weeks later. Oil futures gave back roughly 6% – 7% as well which is quite similar to copper’s recent correction. I have simply highlighted some key support / resistance levels on the oil futures chart for future reference and for possible price targets.

In equity terms, since February 20th the S&P 500 futures have sold off from a high of around 1,529 to Monday’s low of 1481.75. Thus far we are seeing a move lower of about 3.10% since 02/20 in the S&P 500 E-Mini futures contract. While I am not calling for perfect correlation with commodities, I do believe that a 5% correction here not only makes sense, but actually would be healthy for equities.

S&P 500 E-Mini Futures Daily Chart



If we assume the S&P 500 E-Mini contracts were to lose 5% from their recent highs, the price that would correspond with that type of move would be around 1,453.

As shown above, while 1,453 does represent a consolidation zone in the S&P 500 which occurred in the beginning of January of 2013, there is a major support level that corresponds with the 1,460 – 1,470 price range.

I am expecting to see the S&P 500 test the 1,460 – 1,470 price range in the futures contract, however the outcome at that support level will be important for future price action. If that level holds, I think we likely reverse and move higher and we could even take out recent highs potentially. In contrast, if we see a major breakdown below 1,460 I believe things could get interesting quickly for the bears.

I am watching the price action today closely as I am interested in what kind of retracement we will get based on yesterday’s large bullish engulfing candlestick on the daily chart of the S&P 500 futures.

Ultimately if the retracement remains below the .500 Fibonacci Retracement area into the bell we could see some stronger selling pressure setting in later this week. The Fibonacci retracement of the 02/25 candlestick can be seen below.

S&P 500 E-Mini Futures Hourly Chart



So far today we have not been able to crack the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement area. This is generally considered a relatively weak retracement and can precede a strong reversal which in this case would be to the downside in coming days.

It is always possible to see strength on Wednesday and a move up to the .500 retracement level. As long as price stays under the .500 Fibonacci retracement level, I think the bears will remain in control in the short-term. However, should we see the highs from 02/25 taken out in the near term the bulls will be in complete control again.

Right now I think it is early to be getting long unless a trader is looking to scale in on the way down. I think the more logical price level to watch carefully is down around 1,460 – 1,470 on the S&P 500. If that level is tested, the resulting price action will be critical in shaping the intermediate and long-term price action in the broad equity indexes.

If you have to trade, keep position sizes small and define your risk. Risk is elevated at this time.

If you would like to get our detailed trading videos each week and know what is just around the corner test out here:

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Chris Vermeulen & JW Jones
The "Traders Video Playbook"


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Question & Answer Per Your Request

I just received an email from trading legend, Todd Mitchell, that his PowerStock Mentoring Program is filling up.

That's pretty remarkable considering he just started accepting new students last week. But questions remain and he fired up his computer camera with his partners Doc and Dave, and answered all your questions.

I'm not sure if it's Todd's 100%, one year Performance Guarantee, the fact you get ALL of his highly coveted stock trading strategies, or that he's making himself personally available to you. Including giving them his cell phone number. I think that's what has so many traders excited.

Either way, I'm sure it's only a matter of a couple of days before the entire course is sold out. But before you enroll in PowerStock Trading, click here to check out this 5 minute video he just created.

It's answers the 3 most popular questions about the course and how you can personally get in contact with Todd for additional questions.

Watch the 5 Minute Question & Answer Video Here

GOLD Should be Completing a Cyclical Low in February

David A. Banister of Market Trend Forecast has been our go to trader when it comes to gold. Here's what he says about the bottoming process in gold.....

Over the past 5 calendar years we have seen GOLD either complete an intermediate cyclical top or bottom in each February. My forecast was for February of 2013 to be no different and for Gold and Silver to make trough lows this month. With that said, I did not expect the drop in GOLD to go much below $1,620 per ounce at worst, but in fact it has. Where does that leave us now on the technical patterns and crowd behavioral views?

First let’s examine the last 5 years and you can see how I noted tops and bottoms in the chart below




That brings us forward to todays $1,573 spot pricing and trying to determine where the next move will go. To help with that end, some of our work centers on Elliott Wave Theory, along with fundamentals and traditional technical patterns of course.

In this case, the recent action around Gold has been very difficult to ascertain, and I will be the first to admit as much. With that said, one pattern we can surmise is a rare pattern Elliott termed the “Double Three” pattern. Essentially you have two ABC type moves, and in the middle what is dubbed an “X” wave, which breaks up the ABC’s on each end of the pattern.

That brings us forward to todays $1,573 spot pricing and trying to determine where the next move will go. To help with that end, some of our work centers on Elliott Wave Theory, along with fundamentals and traditional technical patterns of course. In this case, the recent action around Gold has been very difficult to ascertain, and I will be the first to admit as much. With that said, one pattern we can surmise is a rare pattern Elliott termed the “Double Three” pattern.

Essentially you have two ABC type moves, and in the middle what is dubbed an “X” wave, which breaks up the ABC’s on each end of the pattern. For sure, if we add in traditional technical indicators along with sentiment, we can see very oversold levels coupled with the potential Double Three pattern and probably start getting long here for a trade back to the 1650’s as possible....




Obviously this chart shows oversold readings in the lower right corner using the CCI indicator. That said we would like to see 1550 hold on a weekly closing basis to remain optimistic for a strong rebound.

Consider our free weekly reports or a 33% discount, just click here and go to Market Trend Forecast