Following the Jockeys in the Oil Patch

You’re only as good as your last deal.

Buy the jockey, not the horse.

That’s what came to mind today when I read that Eagle Rock Explorations (ERX-TSXv) was bringing in a new management and re-capitalizing this 550 boe producer operating in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Half the new group is from Crescent Point Energy (CPG-TSX) the most highly valued intermediate oil producer on the TSX. That’s a great calling card. The other half comes from Wild River and Prairie Schooner, two junior producers that were build and sold earlier this decade.

And the Eagle Rock stock showed the worth of this team, quadrupling to 32 cents on huge volume of 12 million shares – 22% of the stock outstanding. Many investors follow this strategy, find successful management teams who have built and sold companies before, and follow them on every deal. So in my next issue for subscribers, due out in the first couple weeks of October, I will profile three new young companies that are the new ventures for three highly successful management teams in the Canadian oil patch.....Read the entire article

Where is Crude Oil Headed on Thursday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




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Crude Oil Bulls Fail to Defend $69 Level

Crude oil closed down $3.21 at $68.55 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session low today. Trading has turned choppy in crude. Bulls faded badly today. Crude bulls still have the slight near term technical advantage. The next downside price objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the September low of $67.66.

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Natural gas closed up 20.1 cents at $4.721 today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today. Prices are still in a two week old uptrend on the daily bar chart. However, bulls have more work to do to suggest prices can continue to trend higher.

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The U.S. dollar index closed up 24 points at 76.59 today. Prices closed near the session high today on a late rally after hitting another fresh contract low early on. Short covering in a bear market was featured. Bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues that a market low is close at hand for the index.

Phil Flynn: Go Ahead and Make my Day

Go ahead and make my day. Commodity prices explode in what really shouldn’t be called trading, it should be called tainting. One day after paying all “due respect” to the Federal Reserve the dollar tanked and the commodities rallied almost trash talking the Federal Reserve and daring them to do something about it. I know what you’re thinking, did the Fed cut rates 4 times or was it five? In fact in all the excitement I kind of forgot myself.

I guess the question is: does the Fed feel lucky? Well do ya punk? The commodity markets are confident that the Fed is powerless at this point and does not have the courage to challenge the dollar. Everyone knows that the Fed can’t raise rates and the Fed will keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4. The fact is the market does not believe the Fed has the courage to even hint at an exit strategy. Go ahead, keep printing money.....Read the entire article

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Crude Oil Drops Below $69 After Unexpected U.S. Supply Gain

Crude oil fell below $69 a barrel in New York after a U.S. Energy Department report showed an unexpected increase in stockpiles as refineries idled units for seasonal maintenance and fuel demand dropped. Inventories climbed 2.86 million barrels to 335.6 million last week, the report showed. A decline of 1.4 million barrels was forecast, according to the median of 17 analyst responses in a Bloomberg News survey. Supplies of gasoline and distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, rose more than estimated.

“These numbers are bearish across the board,” said Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis. “We’ve been in a $60 to $75 range since early July. Prices should go down and test the bottom end of the range after these numbers.” Crude oil for November delivery fell $2.59, or 3.6 percent, to $68.96 a barrel at 10:49 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $68.57, the lowest since Sept. 15.....Read the entire article

Crude Oil Trading Choppy Ahead of FOMC Statement

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Trading has turned choppy. In November crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $72.00 and then just above resistance at Monday's high of $72.65. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $71.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $70.00. Pivot point for crude oil today is 71.18. Today's key near term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $70.65. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

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The December U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early trading today, and hit yet another fresh contract low overnight. Bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter term technical resistance at 76.50 and then at Tuesday's high of 76.95. Shorter term support is seen at the overnight contract low of 76.11 and then at 76.00. Today's key near term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 77.32. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

Can you learn to trade crude oil in just 90 seconds?

December S&P 500: The shorter term moving averages (4, 9 and 18 day) are bullish early today. The 4 day moving average is above the 9 day and 18 day. The 9 day is above the 18 day moving average. Short term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,064.00 and then at Tuesday's low of 1,059.50. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at last week's and the overnight high of 1,070.50 and then at 1,080.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra day Market Rating: 5.5 Today's key near term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,039.00.

Pivot point--------- 1,065.35
1st Support:-------- 1,061.50
2nd Support:-------- 1,055.65
1st Resistance:----- 1,071.20
2nd Resistance:----- 1,075.05

Oil Falls After Industry Report Shows Increase in Fuel Supplies

Crude oil fell in New York after an industry report showed an increase in fuel supplies in the U.S., adding to signs demand has yet to recover in the world’s largest energy consumer.Oil pared yesterday’s 2.6 percent gain after a report from the industry funded American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. gasoline stockpiles climbed the most since January. The Energy Department report today is expected to show increases in the nation’s fuel inventories, according to a Bloomberg News survey.


“We’ve been expecting a demand recovery but we still haven’t seen much of a justification in the supply demand fundamentals,” said Toby Hassall, a research analyst with CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney. “The underlying supply-demand profile still suggests the market could be vulnerable to a pullback”.....Read the entire article

Finding the Right Oil Plays Is Easier than You Think

It's a mistake that too many people make. I'm not immune, by any means. In fact, one of the first trades I ever made proved to be an important lesson. The mistake was simple. Several years ago, I was star struck by a big name in natural gas and thought buying this company would prove a win win deal for me. A few months later, I swallowed my pride and ended up taking the big loss.

Believe me, it's a mistake I won't make again, and the good (if any) that comes from a loss is that the bad deals end up being the ones we learn from. So what has me thinking about a painful trade from the past? A reader of mine recently shared what he called, in his words, a 'hugely successful trading story.' At first, I was elated. . . I'm always in the mood to hear a good story from one of my readers. Yet the moment he told me the name of the company.....Read the entire article

The Chinese Oil Demand Teaser

One day China’s oil demand is bad and the next, good. Welcome to another mystery from The Middle Kingdom. Yesterday oil prices were pressured on reports of bulging inventories in China and weak demand. Platts reported that Chinese oil demand in August slid 5.4% from July. Platts said that China's implied oil demand totaled 33.02 million metric tons in August versus 34.92 million metric tons in July. Oil refiners in China are reporting that demand is still weak. Reuter’s news reported that Chinese oil company Sinopec had sales of refined oil products still lower than one year ago. Reuters says that despite a moderate inventory draw in August, China's diesel inventories had been building up faster than gasoline had in past months, reflecting the slower consumption for the main transportation fuel used by Chinese industry and trucks.....Read the entire article

New Video: The Reason Why Gold Hasn’t Skyrocketed

With the printing presses in full printing mode, many people are questioning why gold prices haven’t gone higher....much higher.

In our new video, we explain some of the subtle market cycles that are at play right now in this market. These short term cycles have been the dominant force in gold all year and appear to be still in control of price action.

We believe the longer term upward trend in gold is very much intact, short term we could see more of a trading range that has a downward bias. We think when you watch this video you will get a much better understanding about the rhythm of this market.

If we are correct, you will see some amazing opportunities that we believe will be presented to traders in Q4. In fact, if everything goes according to plan we could all be looking at some very nice Christmas/holiday profits.

The video is easy to follow and I think you’ll learn a whole lot about cyclic price action in the gold market.

Just Click Here to watch the video, and of course it's Free with our compliments and you are not required to register to view this video.

Enjoy the video and please leave a comment to let us know what you think about the video and the direction of gold.

Crude Oil Rises for First Time in Four Days as Dollar Weakens

Crude oil rose for the first time in four days as the dollar declined, bolstering the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation. Oil climbed as much as 2.9 percent as the U.S. currency slipped to $1.4821 per euro, its weakest level since Sept. 23, 2008. Net crude oil imports by China, Asia’s biggest energy consuming country, increased 18 percent to 17.92 million metric tons in August, the second highest level on record.

“More than anything else, we are seeing a reaction to the incredible weakness of the dollar,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “Yesterday, the dollar strengthened and oil fell more than $2. Now the dollar’s plunged to the lowest level against the euro in a year and look what’s happened”.....Read the entire article

Oil Options Hit Highs as Verleger Predicts 44% Plunge

Oil traders are paying more than ever in the options market to protect against a plunge in crude prices. The gap between prices of options betting on a decline and those that would profit from a rise in oil widened to a record 10 percentage points, according to five years of data compiled by Bank of America Securities Merrill Lynch. Crude stockpiles in the U.S. are 14 percent larger than a year ago and OPEC is pumping 600,000 barrels a day more than the world needs, according to the International Energy Agency.

While the recovery from the first global recession since World War II pushed oil up 62 percent this year to $72.04 a barrel in New York, growth alone isn’t likely to erode the glut by the end of next year because production exceeds demand, data from the Paris based IEA shows. A drop in prices would penalize companies from Exxon Mobil Corp. to BP Plc and exporters.....Read entire article

Market Report: Oil Prices Set to Decline Amid Global Econ Matters

As the dollar world turns. Oil prices are heading lower ahead of a big week in global economic matters. Not only will the G-20 meet in Pittsburgh to try to assess what went wrong with the global economy and try to fix it, but also the Fed meets to decide whether or not it's time to remove some of the props that have been lifting the global markets. And the question for oil traders is whether or not the dollar can find love and happiness in a world gone mad.

Once again the dollar is the key driver moving the crude market. Traders are covering the dollar on fear that perhaps the G-20 may do something to support the dollar or that the Fed may slow down its purchases of treasuries. Of course the dollar has been oversold and it's possible that we are getting to the point where the carry trade has gotten.....Read the entire article

New Video: Two Major Technical Forces Are About to Collide in the S&P 500

The S&P 500 has seen remarkable recovery from the lows that were seen earlier this year. However, all of that may come to an end as we fast approach a strategic level for this market. There are two major technical indicators that are colliding at a crucial point and time. Unless you’re aware of these indicators, it could be very expensive.

In today’s short video, I explain both the technical indicators we are discussing and also the important time frame that we are just about to enter.

I think you will find today’s video not only interesting, but also educational.

There is no need to register for this video and of course you can watch it with my compliments. I highly recommend watching this video today, otherwise you risk missing out on what could be the move of the year.

Just Click Here to enjoy the video and please feel free to leave a comment and let our readers know what you think!

Bloomberg Technical Analysis: N.Y. Natural Gas Set to Decline Below $3

Natural gas futures, which jumped 28 percent last week, may revisit seven year lows after surging into an “overbought” area of resistance between $3.58 and $3.87 per million British thermal units, according to a technical analysis by Barclays Capital. Gas tumbled 82 percent from a high of $13.694 per million Btu in July 2008 to touch $2.409 on Sept. 4. Gas then surged 57 percent through Sept. 18. The futures have entered a resistance zone and the downtrend is likely to resume, MacNeil Curry, a New York based analyst at Barclays, said in an interview. “We’re around the high end of this resistance zone and things are overbought,” Curry said. “This is still an environment where bounces should be sold.....Read the entire article

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Weekly Summary From Crude Oil Trading Small Spec.

From Guest analyst Rich Olney.....

Weekly Summary for Sunday 9/20/09
Nov Crude Oil finished the week up 4% or 2.77 points to close at 72.49. Nat Gas finished the week up 21.6% closing at 3.778. The SnP cash closed the week up 2.5% closing at 1068.30. The USD lingers around support at 76 closing the week at 76.67. Gold finished the week up 4 points or up 1/2% at 1009.40. This week we get the FED MTG on Wed.

The commercials increased their net short position on crude this last week. It increased from -133,519 to -143,033 which is the second highest net short position this year. The high is 145,499 this year so we are at a yearly extreme. The Nat Gas net long position is at 40,512 which is the highest it has been since the commercials went net long last May.

For inventories crude oil imports have been decreasing and inputs into refineries have been increasing which means lower crude oil inventories. However Gasoline and Heating oil inventories are increasing. For Nat Gas current inventories are at 3458 and there are about 7 -10 more injections left before nat gas winter demand ramps up. If Nat Gas injections were to match last year then that would mean an additional 524 bcf of injections. Here are the balance of last years injections:

9/18 +54 bcf
9/25 +82 bcf
10/2 +87 bcf
10/9 +81 bcf
10/16 +71 bcf
10/23 +49 bcf
10/30 +23 bcf
11/6 +54 bcf
11/13 +23 bcf
11/20 -55 bcf

For technicals on crude support lies at 68. There is resistance at 73 which has held back crude for two weeks. If crude closes above 73 then it can make a run at the highs at 75.89 where there is strong resistance. For Natty it needs to close above the down trend line and above the rally high at 3.90. If natty can close above 3.90 two session in a row then that should confirm higher prices are in the cards. However Natty to close above the trend line first.....Read the entire post with charts!

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“As California goes, so goes the nation”....Let’s hope not!

From guest blogger Adam Hewison....

There’s a saying that most of us have heard many times before, “As California goes, so goes the nation.” The saying is/was intended to recognize Californians for consistently being on the cutting edge of new developments in science, business and innovation.

Let’s hope that the current dire unemployment picture in California doesn’t end up sweeping the rest of the nation.

—————-

This graphic courtesy of the Los Angeles Times, Full article here.

Crude's Rally Derailed from Fundamentals Again

Strength in stock markets and decline in USD were the major reasons for the rises in commodities. In the US, Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed +2.2% to settle at 9820 while S&P 500 Index surged +2.6% to 1068.3 as driven by better-than-expected housing market (housing starts), employment situation (jobless claims) and improvements in manufacturing activities (Empire State and Philly Fed Index). The dollar weakened further with every rebound being treated an opportunity to sell as investors' risk appetite increases. In the coming week, the FOMC meeting will be market's focus. While the Fed will likely announce to keep its policy rate at 0-0.25% for an extended period of time, it may talk more about plans for exiting from the current stimulus policies.

Crude Oil
Crude oil price retreated to -0.6% to settle 72.04 Friday, the second consecutive day of fall as USD recovered after substantially weakened against major currencies in the past week. On weekly basis, the October contract reached 73.16 the highest and gained +4%. Recent rally in crude oil has been determined by movements in USD and stock markets, rather than fundamentals....Read the entire article

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