Crude Oil Market Commentary For Tuesday Evening

Crude oil closed lower on Tuesday as it extended last week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 62.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 69.44 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 67.78
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 69.44

First support is today's low crossing at 62.35
Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 62.20

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EIA Sees Slightly Smaller Drop in US Natural Gas Production for 2009

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has revised its forecast for U.S. natural gas production, the decline of which has been lessened for 2009 compared to the governmental agency's prediction last month. In June 2009, the EIA estimated that U.S. natural gas production would fall by 1.1% in 2009 and 2.6% in 2010. According to its Short Term Energy Outlook, the EIA now expects total U.S. marketed natural gas production to drop by 0.6% in 2009.....Complete Story

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OPEC Oil Price Plummets

The oil price of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) took a steep fall of $2.46 at the start of the week,the Vienna based group announced Tuesday. The basket price for OPEC produced oil dropped to $63.66 Monday. Since the end June, it has shed $5.90. Analysts have linked the current downward trend to lower than forecast economic data from the United States, particularly last week's bleak jobless figures. OPEC's 12 member countries produce more than a third of the world's crude oil.

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Technical Analysis: Gasoline Poised for Slide to 8 Week Low

Gasoline futures may fall nearly 7 percent to an eight week low if the August contract closes below $1.70, according to a technical analysis by Lind-Waldock & Co. in Chicago.
A drop below the 55 day smooth moving average around $1.70 would send prices down to $1.625, the uptrend line connecting the Feb. 19 and April 27 lows, said Blake Robben, a strategist at Lind-Waldock, a division of MF Global Ltd. If prices fall below trendline support, "$1.55 is the next level,” Robben said in an interview.....Complete Story

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Saudi Aramco, Total Sign $9.6B Refinery Deals

State run oil giant Saudi Aramco and France's Total S.A. on Tuesday signed $9.6 billion in deals with contractors to build the 400,000 barrel per day Jubail export refinery, one of the oil rich kingdom's top projects. The two companies awarded 13 contracts for the project, the official Saudi Press Agency reported. The Jubail refinery is seen as a key part of Saudi Arabia's plan to boost overall capacity. But the joint venture had suffered.....Complete Story

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Video: Why Are Oil Prices Falling?

Phil Flynn of PFG Best Research talks to Fox Business on why oil has declined this week and what he thinks about talk of $55 dollar oil.



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Oil, Gas Market Speculation May Face Restrictions by U.S. CFTC

U.S. regulators say they may clamp down on oil and gas price speculators by limiting the holdings of energy futures traders, including index and exchange traded funds. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission will hold hearings to explore the need for government imposed restrictions on speculative trading in oil, gas and other energy markets, Chairman Gary Gensler said today in a statement. The agency didn’t say when the hearings would start or who would be asked to testify.....Complete Story

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Crude Oil Slightly Higher on Short Covering

Crude oil was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August extends the decline off last week's high, the 38% retracement level of the February-June rally crossing at 62.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 69.54 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Tuesday's pivot point for crude oil, our line in the sand is 64.38

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 67.98
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 69.54

First support is Monday's low crossing at 63.40
Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 62.25

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Video: S&P 500 Update For Monday Evening

Today we are going to take another look at the S&P 500 Index. It appears that some of the rose coloring on traders’ glasses is beginning to wear thin. Many more traders now perceive this as a two way trading market as opposed to a one way street we witnessed in March and April.

We are going to be analyzing a daily S&P index chart and making some observations that We think potentially could work out if certain elements fall into place.

At the present time our “Trade Triangle” technology is indicating a neutral stance in this market. With the -55 reading our “Trade Triangles” are indicating a trading range which could possibly be an early sign of a reversal.

You can watch this video [just click here] with our compliments and there is no registration requirements. We would love to get your feedback about this video so please feel free to leave a comment.

Sharon Epperson: Where Is Oil Headed Tuesday

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow [Tuesday].




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Energy Market Summary For Monday

Crude oil closed down $2.36 at $64.37 a barrel today. Prices closed near mid range and did hit a fresh six week low. The market was pressured again by concerns about a weak U.S. economy after last Thursday's jobs report. The bulls are fading badly.

Heating oil closed down 656 points at $1.6360 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh six week low today. Bulls are fading badly.

Unleaded gasoline closed down 408 points at $1.7500 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh six week low today. Bulls are fading badly.

Natural gas closed down 11.3 cents at $3.502 today. Prices closed near mid range and hit a fresh contract low today. Bears are in firm technical control again.

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Oil Falls to Five Week Low, Gasoline Drops on Economic Concern

Crude oil fell to a five week low and gasoline declined on growing concern that the global economic recovery will falter, curbing fuel consumption. Oil dropped for a fourth day, the longest losing streak since February, as U.S., European and Asian stock markets declined. The dollar advanced against the euro, curbing the appeal of commodities to investors looking for an inflation hedge. Oil in New York is down 13 percent from an eight month high of $73.38 touched on June 30.....Complete Story

Six Attacks on Natural Gas Pipelines.....IN CANADA!

A series of bombings of natural gas pipelines in northeastern British Columbia in Canada are "domestic terrorism," authorities said. The first attack was reported in early October. This past weekend, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police confirmed a sixth bombing caused a leak in an EnCana Corp. line south of Dawson Creek, British Columbia. No one has been injured in the bombings, but they have caused leaks that could prove hazardous, authorities said.....Complete Story

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Oil Plunges Below $64 on Fears Recovery May Lag

Oil prices plunged nearly $3 to below $64 a barrel Monday as dismal unemployment figures from the U.S. and Europe last week sparked investor doubts about any nascent economic recovery. A significant fall in natural gas prices - a likely sign that industries are still struggling and unlikely to add jobs - as well as gains by the U.S. dollar and falling stock markets around the world all helped push energy prices lower.....Complete Story

Crude Oil Hits New Six Week Low Overnight

Crude oil prices are sharply lower early today, and hit a fresh six week low overnight. Bulls have faded badly recently.

In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $64.00 and then just above resistance at $65.00.

Look to sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $63.40 and then more sell stops just below support at $63.00.

Today's key near term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $62.31.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0

Free Trend Analysis

The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today. Trading is still choppy, but bears still have the overall near term technical edge.

Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter term technical resistance at 81.25 and then at 81.50. Shorter term support is seen at 80.75 and then at the overnight low of 80.53.

Today's key near term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.42.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

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Crude Oil Falls on Dollar Advance, Speculation of Supply Gains

Crude oil fell to the lowest in five weeks on a stronger dollar and speculation U.S. fuel inventories will increase as the recession curbs demand in the world’s biggest energy consuming country. Oil and commodities including gold declined as the dollar climbed against the Euro, limiting investor appetite for assets to hedge against inflation. Eighteen of 37 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 49 percent, said oil futures will decline through July 10.....Complete Story

Crude Oil Lower Overnight, Lower Prices Possible

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight and trading below the 10 day moving average crossing at 69.33 tempering the near term friendly outlook. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the reaction low crossing at 66.37 would renew the decline off June's high while opening the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the February-June rally crossing at 62.25.

If August renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 73.90 is the next upside target.

Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 69.86

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 70.33
Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 73.38

First support is the overnight low crossing at 67.72
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 66.37

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Crude Oil Falls a Third Day on Forecast U.S. Shed More Jobs

Crude oil fell for a third day before a report forecast to show the U.S. unemployment increased last month, signaling the world’s largest energy user remains mired in recession. U.S. fuel demand in the four weeks ended June 26 fell 5.8 percent from a year earlier, while demand for distillate fuel including heating oil and diesel, fell 9.4 percent, according to a Department of Energy report yesterday. The Labor Department will likely report the U.S. shed an additional 365,000 jobs in June, a Bloomberg survey showed.....Complete Story

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Crude Oil Is Little Changed After Falling on Weak Fuel Demand

Crude oil traded little changed after falling in the past two days, as demand for gasoline and diesel in the U.S. remained weak during the recession. Fuel demand in the world’s largest energy user in the four weeks ended June 26 fell 5.8 percent from a year earlier, according to a Department of Energy report yesterday. Demand for distillate fuel including heating oil and diesel fell 9.4 percent to 3.4 million barrels a day during the period.....Complete Story

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Natural Gas Set Up For Lower Opening on Thursday

Natural gas closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off June's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.710 is the next downside target. From a broad perspective, August needs to close above 4.820 or below 3.520 to confirm a breakout of this spring's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.01
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.57

First support is today's low crossing at 3.76
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.71

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