Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Wednesday Evening Oct. 13th

The U.S. stock indexes closed higher today and hit fresh five month highs. The stock index bulls have the overall near term technical advantage as price uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts. Stock index bulls have been very pleased with price action so far this autumn a time which is normally not favorable to market bulls. My bias is that prices will trade mostly sideways, but with a slight upside bias, into the end of the year.

Crude oil closed up $1.36 at $83.03 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today in the wake of a bullish IEA report that showed increasing worldwide demand for oil. A weaker U.S. dollar index also supported crude today. Prices are still in a six week old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near term upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $84.43 a barrel.

Natural gas closed up 5.5 cents at $3.684 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. More tepid short covering in a bear market was featured today. The bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $4.00.

Gold futures closed up $25.30 at $1,372.00 today. Prices today closed near the session high and scored another fresh all time record high. A weaker U.S. dollar index and a two year high in the Continuous Commodity Index invited fresh speculative interest into the gold market on the long side today. The gold bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage. Prices are in a 2 1/2 month old uptrend on the daily bar chart.

The U.S. dollar index closed down 28 points at 77.30 today. Prices closed near the session low again today and are hovering near a nine month low. Bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no early clues to suggest a market bottom is close at hand.

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Phil Flynn: Can Rising Commodity Prices Derail QE 2?

The odds of quantitative easing continues to go up almost as fast as corn prices as the Fed Minutes confirmed that the Fed is getting ready to run the printing presses. The FOMC is worried that, “the recent and anticipated progress toward meeting the Committee’s mandate of maximum employment and price stability to be unsatisfactory”.

The Fed says that economic data had been mixed, with readings early in the period generally weaker than anticipated but the more recent data coming in on the strong side of expectations. So, “in light of the considerable uncertainty about the current trajectory for the economy, some members saw merit in accumulating further information before reaching a decision about providing additional monetary stimulus” But that they would consider it appropriate to take action soon.”

How soon? While the Fed is talking about more purchases of securities, European Central Bank Governing Council member Axel Weber is talking about an exit stagy. He said that the European Central Bank should stop its bond purchase program while our Fed is talking about stepping it up thus creating the potential for a larger wedge between the Euro and the dollar and a continuing spike in commodity prices......Read the entire article.


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Crude Surges amid Demand Upgrades, China Imports Reach Record High

Crude oil strengthened further in European session as both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the OPEC raised their forecasts on global oil demand as global economic recovery provides support for oil consumption. Also supporting oil prices was China's trade data in September. Strong imports for crude oil indicate resilience in domestic demand. WTI crude oil price soared to 82.9, up from yesterday's close of 81.67. Gold crawled above 1360 in European session as renewed selling pressure in USD raised demand for safe haven. GFMS forecasts the metal to reach 1400 by the end of the, citing low interest rates, the European sovereign debt crisis and fears about an economic slowdown factors supporting prices.

The IEA raised its global oil demand outlook to 86.9M bpd in 2010 and 88.2M bpd in 2011. That's +0.3M bpd more than last month's forecast for both those years. According the agency, the upgrades were driven by signs that 'the underlying demand trend in the OECD is more resilient than previously thought'. On the supply side, non-OPEC supply will increase to 52.6M bpd in 2010 (unchanged from August's estimates) from 51.5M bpd in 2009, followed by a rise to 53.1M bpd in 2010 (August: 52.9M bpd). Call on OPEC will be around 28.3M bpd (August: 28.8M bpd) in 2010 and 29.3M in 2011 (August: 29.3M bpd).

At an OPEC report released yesterday, the cartel also raised its demand forecast for 2010 to 85.6M bpd (August: 85.5Mbpd) while keeping that for 2011 unchanged at 86.6M bps. The 'stronger-than-expected, stimulus-led economic growth in the first half of the year' was the key reason for the upgrade. Non-OPEC supplies are revised higher for both 2010 and 10 as driven by growth in Brazil, Canada, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhsta. In contrast with the IEA, the OPEC revised lower the demand for the cartel's production for 2011 to 28.8M bpd from 28.9. The cartel forecasts demand for its production would be around 28.6M bpd for 2010 and 28.8M bpd for 2011. The estimate for 2010 represents a mild drop from August's reading.

The China trade report showed that export growth slowed to +25.1% in September from +34.4% in August, import growth slowed to +24.1% from +35.2% while trade surplus narrowed to $16.9B from $20B. The market was not disappointed by the slowdown but viewed it as a result of strong base effect last year. Imports for crude oil surged to 23.29M metric tons (2.69M bpd), up +35.4% and +11.4% on annual and monthly basis respectively. The record-high imports for crude oil signals the country's robust demand for the commodity.

Base metals rallied despite decline in imports from China. Rather investors were thrilled by the prospect that the market will be 'tighter' next year. LME copper surged to a 27-month high while lead also rose to the highest level in 6 months. Chile's Codelco, the world's biggest copper producer, expects a 'tighter' market next year as 'China is continuing to have a strong demand and from the supply side we have only a couple of new projects coming on- stream'. In September, China imported 368410 tons of unwrought copper and copper products (-7.68% y/y and -2.93% m/m) and 65772 metric tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products (-66.42% y/y and -9.44% m/m).

Courtesy Oil N'Gold .Com



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Bob Lang: Markets, the Fed, and Metals

From Bob Lang at Big Trends ETF Tradr.......

Market Noise is Deafening
When we don't know what to do or where to go, we ask someone. The obvious path is not so any longer and we need direction. Well, in the markets we're now at that critical juncture. Much like the 'advice' that was given in fall 2008, bargains of a lifetime, 'you have to be in this market', long term it makes sense, etc, only to have markets fall another 50% into the spring of 2009. Was that advice we needed to follow? Today, the word on the 'street is 'how far this rally can go, and should I stay or get on the sidelines'. Naturally, market sages will tell you to stay the course if you're invested, they want you all in at all times. Yet with all the noise and distractions around can we afford to make the one decision that could lead to a setback? The LESS we listen to media accounts, hurray the Dow hit 11,000 again, let's have a party, the better off we'll be. It'll be all over the place now and louder than ever! This type of 'workplace noise' can be hazardous, a news story the other evening stated that those prone to noise at work are more likely to have a stroke, heart attack or high blood pressure. Let the market tell you WHEN to should exit, remain or re-enter.

What's All this Fed Talk About?
We've heard quite a bit lately about this Fed game called QE2. To be sure, they are playing upon our positive expectations at the end of the game. The hope is that this program will help spur some economic activity, inflation and move people back to work. But, what is QE2, and did what did QE1 accomplish? Simply put, QE is quantitative easing, implemented when the Fed has no more additional room to cut short-term rates to stimulate the economy. Basically, cutting borrowing rates has failed to control the money supply. By definition, QE is upping the supply of money by increasing excess reserves of the banking system, expanding their balance sheet. By purchasing government assets and other bonds in the open market they give banks excess reserves required to create new money. Hopefully the banks will use this extra money to lend out to borrowers, thereby stimulating activity. Many argue this is the wrong approach, creating dollars. To be certain, QE measures have had mixed results and there is not a direct correlation to creating new jobs, which seems to be the big issue of today. Back in early 2009 the Fed implemented the first round of QE and while it improved growth a bit, the desired effect and length lagged badly. In fact, the economy recently fell into a 'soft patch', enough warning for the Fed to jump to the fore with their new easing plan. Is that a pattern we'll see develop over time?


Metals are sure Precious!
New highs again for gold, new multiyear highs for silver. Haven't seen such a blistering move on a commodity since crude oil went parabolic in 2008. Do we know the reasons for this parabolic rise, or do we 'think' we know the reasons. By all accounts it seems everyone is talking about the metals these days. Heck, there are four new gold shops that popped up in my town over the last several months, and on every other street corner is a guy holding a sign that says 'will buy your gold'. The fever pitch is reaching that of the miner 49ers over 160 yrs ago! Can it last? Sure, any bubble move can keep going until every last one gets in and then POP! I'm not calling for this, but certainly the reasons for buying gold are consistent with past bubbles, oil, housing, tech, and biotech. Oh, I've participated, silver has been my choice, but if you fail to acknowledge what is happening around you then you'll get taken in by the hype. We choose to listen to what and whom we want that makes us feel good (read up top again about the noise factor). Being in a bubble and profiting is ok, in fact it's great as an options player, but knowing your exit is most important. Enjoy the ride while it lasts!


Check out Bob Lang's calls and articles at Big Trends.Com


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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Wednesday Morning Oct. 13th

Crude oil was higher overnight and appears poised to renew the rally off August's low. At the same time, stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.93 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If November renews the rally off last week's low, the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 84.65 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 84.09
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 84.65

Crude oil pivot point for Wednesday morning is 81.63

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.99
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.93


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Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Commodity Corner: Crude Falls on Fed's Release of Minutes

Light, sweet crude settled lower Tuesday after the record of a recent Federal Reserve meeting failed to meet traders' expectations. Oil futures for November delivery settled 54 cents lower Tuesday at $81.67 a barrel after Fed policymakers released details of their September meeting. The minutes of the meeting indicated that several board members believed additional steps might be needed for the struggling economy.

The dollar gave up earlier gains on release of the meeting minutes. The drop came too late in the trading session to help crude prices. Analysts anticipate the dollar will fall lower if the Fed purchases government securities next month. Meanwhile, the euro and stocks rebounded following the Fed's minutes. NASDAQ and S&P 500 were up slightly, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by nearly 30 points in afternoon trading.

Earlier Tuesday, crude fell on speculation that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will leave production quotas unchanged. Investors moved to lock in profits ahead of the OPEC meeting, which is set to take later this week. The intraday range for crude futures was $80.88 to $82.33 Tuesday.

Natural gas futures rose 2.8 cents Tuesday as traders were reluctant to bet prices would fall with the upcoming winter's gas heating demand. Henry Hub natural gas settled at $2.63 per thousand cubic feet after fluctuating between $3.55 and $3.67. Reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, ended Tuesday's trading session 1.9% lower, at $2.12 a gallon. Gasoline prices peaked at $2.16 and bottomed out at $2.12 Tuesday.

Courtesy Rigzone.Com

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Sharon Epperson: Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Wednesday

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil and gold are likely headed tomorrow.



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Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Tuesday Evening Oct. 12th

The U.S. stock indexes closed firmer again today in quieter trading. The stock index bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage as uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts. However, the uptrends have turned into more sideways price action recently, which is likely to continue in the near term. Stock index bulls have been very pleased with price action so far this autumn, a time which is normally not favorable to market bulls.

Crude oil closed down $0.56 at $81.65 a barrel today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw more profit taking from recent gains. A firmer U.S. dollar index also put light pressure on crude today. Prices are still in a six week old uptrend on the daily bar chart.

Natural gas closed up 4.6 cents at $3.647 today. Prices closed near the session high today after hitting a fresh contract low early on. Tepid short covering in a bear market was featured. The bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage.

Gold futures closed down $6.00 at $1,348.40 today. Prices today closed near mid-range and saw profit taking. A firmer U.S. dollar index also slightly weighed on the precious yellow metal today. The gold bulls still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. Prices are in a 2 1/2 month old uptrend on the daily bar chart.

The U.S. dollar index closed down 11 points at 77.54 today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no early clues to suggest a market bottom is close at hand.



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Crude Oil Falls Ahead Of Fed Minutes

Crude futures fell Tuesday as investors grew nervous ahead of the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve that could offer clues on the central bank's plans to stimulate the economy. Light, sweet crude for November delivery recently traded 74 cents, or 0.9%, lower at $81.47 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange traded 56 cents lower at $83.16 a barrel. The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's Sept. 21 meeting, due for release at 2 p.m. EDT, will be closely watched for any signals on how the central bank may restart a Treasury buying program, known as quantitative easing, in an effort to revive the slowing economic recovery.

But after a rally above $84 a barrel last week, oil traders are wary about how the central bank will decide to act, and how it will influence oil and the financial markets that crude has closely followed in recent months. "We've put this quantitative easing premium in the marketplace, and now people are a little worried about the size of it," said Phil Flynn, an analyst with PFG Best, which tracks the market. He said traders are selling to lock in profits.

The euro is also falling against the dollar, and was recently down 0.3% to $1.3828. A weaker dollar makes oil cheaper for buyers in other currencies, and its recent decline to 8 month lows against the euro has been a primary factor in crude's most recent surge. Equities markets are also trading lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average recently down 55 points to 10954. "Another day, another dollar," said Gene McGillian, a broker and analyst with Tradition Energy, summing up the motivation for crude's price move.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on Tuesday revised up its forecast for global oil demand growth this year, encouraged by stimulus-led economic growth in the first half of 2010. OPEC upgraded its forecast for world oil demand growth by 100,000 barrels a day to 1.13 million barrels a day, and its non OPEC supply forecast for 2010 was also increased by 100,000 barrels a day to 1.01 million barrels a day. OPEC is expected to keep quotas unchanged when the group meets Thursday, though some member countries have said prices should move higher due to the weakening dollar.

Despite U.S. inventories of oil and fuel products that hit 27 year highs last month, economic data and moves in the dollar have trumped worries about oil supply and demand. U.S. crude oil stocks are expected to rise in a report due Thursday from the Department of Energy, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts. Crude stocks are seen increasing by 1.2 million barrels, according to data covering the week ended Oct. 8.

Meanwhile, France was hit by a nationwide strike against pension reform, and the industrial dispute that has closed the Fos-Lavera oil terminal, the world's third largest oil port, entered its 16th day. The Marseille port authority said 85 ships have been affected, of which 56 are oil tankers. Front month November reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, recently traded 3.41 cents, or 1.6%, lower at $2.1314 a gallon. November heating oil recently traded 1.97 cents lower at $2.2593 a gallon.

Courtesy of Wall Street Journal/Dow Jones Newswire


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White House Signals Deepwater Drilling Ban to End Soon

Top Obama administration officials signaled Tuesday that a moratorium on deepwater oil drilling could end "very soon," but it's unclear how quickly idled oil rigs could go back to work in the Gulf of Mexico. The Interior Department scheduled a 1 p.m. EDT news conference to discuss what it said would be an announcement on "the current suspensions on deepwater drilling." White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs told reporters Tuesday that the Interior Department will lift its moratorium on deep water oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico "very soon," likely this week. Asked if he was saying the ban will be lifted this week, Gibbs said: "I do."

But the government's top offshore drilling regulator, Michael Bromwich, separately told reporters during an event across town that it is unlikely companies could resume drilling immediately, even when the moratorium is lifted. Bromwich, director of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, said his agency will need to time to carefully vet companies' applications to ensure they comply with new safety and environmental regulations established since the April 20 explosion of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig and the subsequent oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. He emphasized that the pace of approvals will depend on......Read the entire article.


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Phil Flynn: QE2...Is It A Bounce Or Bust?

Surging retail gasoline prices and surging food costs! Cotton price going through the roof! Not to worry it is just the Fed here to help you. I do not know about the consumers but the farmers sure love the Fed. The Wall street Journal’s lead article is, "How the Farm Belt” is bouncing back in part based on strong Asian demand as the USDA projects net farm income to climb 24% this year to 77.1 billion dollar,s the fourth highest year on record.

Farmers are getting about 62% more for hogs than a year ago and 32% more for milk! That means for most Americans to feed their families costs are going up. The cost of filling their gas tank is going up as well. Gas prices have surged at the retail level almost 20 cents a gallon since the Federal Reserve said it wants inflation. Oh sure, the French refinery strike and the improved export picture for gasoline is part of the story, but in reality the spike in gas and the timing of the spike can be traced back directly to your friends at the Fed.

With friends like that you need policy makers. Since the Fed meeting we have seen the price of oil add over 11 dollars a barrel from peak to valley. RBOB gasoline futures went up from a low of 192 a gallon to as high as $2.20 a gallon and Heating oil hit as low as $2.11.14 a gallon to a high of $233.41 a gallon. Are you feeling the Fed's love now?......Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning Oct. 12th

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.64 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If November renews the rally off last week's low, the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 84.65 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 84.09
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 84.65

Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 82.51

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.47
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.64


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Monday, October 11, 2010

Crude Oil Decline as Dollar Strengthens Against the Euro and Yen

Crude oil fell for a second day after the dollar strengthened, reducing the appeal of commodities as an investment, and as Saudi Arabia signaled that OPEC may leave oil production quotas unchanged. The dollar yesterday climbed from an eight month low against the euro and a 15 year low to the yen. The currency had retreated earlier on speculation the Federal Reserve will signal it’s willing to buy more government debt to spur economic growth.

OPEC may leave oil production quotas unchanged when it meets this week after Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi described the market as “very well balanced,” and said an oil price between $70 and $80 a barrel is “ideal.” “The dollar is so heavily sold at the moment, creating the opportunity for a bit of strength in the dollar and softness in oil,” Mark Pervan, head of commodity research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne, said by phone. “You would be leaning toward a softer oil price this week.”

Crude for November delivery fell as much as 66 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $81.55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $81.62 at 12:14 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, prices lost 0.5 percent to $82.21. Futures last week recorded a third consecutive weekly gain, the longest stretch since June. Brent crude for November settlement declined as much as 0.8 percent to $83.07 a barrel. The contract slipped 31 cents, or 0.4 percent, yesterday to $83.72 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London......Read the entire article.


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Matt Nesto: China Moves into Texas with Billions on Natural Gas

CNBC's Matt Nesto discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil and gold are likely headed tomorrow.



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Commodity Corner: Crude Oil, Gasoline Settle Higher

A stronger dollar contributed to lower November crude oil futures Monday. Oil settled at $82.21 a barrel, a 45 cent drop from Friday, as the euro declined 0.8% during Monday's trading. Because oil is priced in dollars, a stronger dollar makes the commodity more expensive and thus less attractive to investors. Oil peaked at $83.50 and bottomed out at $82.01.

Crude oil might have lost more ground had gasoline not rallied for the second consecutive trading day. Gasoline, which settled two cents higher to end the day at $2.17 a gallon, has benefited from a recent prediction by the U.S. Department of Agriculture that this year's corn harvest will bring smaller yield. Consequently, prices for the corn based gasoline additive ethanol are expected to rise. Gasoline for November delivery traded within a range from $2.14 to $2.17.

November natural gas continued to follow a downward course Monday, settling a nickel lower at $3.60 per thousand cubic feet. The front month natural gas price fluctuated between $2.14 and $2.17.

Courtesy of  Rigzone.Com


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Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Monday Evening Oct. 11th

The U.S. stock indexes closed mixed again today in quieter holiday trading. The stock index bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage as uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts. However, the uptrends have turned into more sideways price action recently, which is likely to continue in the near term. Stock index bulls have been very pleased with price action so far this autumn a time which is normally not favorable to market bulls.

Crude oil closed down $0.61 at $82.05 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session low today on profit taking from recent gains. Prices are still in a six week old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near term upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at $86.00 a barrel.

Natural gas closed down 4.9 cents at $3.602 today. Prices closed near the session low today and closed at a fresh contract low close. The bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $4.00.

Gold futures closed up $9.30 at $1,354.60 today. Prices today closed near the session high and closed at a fresh contract and all time record high close. Bargain hunters stepped in to buy some early session weakness and prices pushed higher. The gold bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage and have regained upside momentum the past two trading sessions. Prices are in a 2 1/2 month old uptrend on the daily bar chart.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 19 points at 77.75 today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh nine month low. Tepid short covering in a bear market was featured. Bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no early clues to suggest a market bottom is close at hand.


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Correlating Financial Factors to Crude Oil Q4 Pricing

Although the future of oil prices and related exchange traded funds are usually based on the basic fundamentals of demand and supply and the Crude oil prices did indeed fall after the American Petroleum Institute (API) report citing oversupply but its interesting to note that crude oil prices have been reacting more to the financial factors (such as moves in the S&P 500 index and the USD) much more as compared to the gross fundamentals of supply and demand.

Oil rose for a second straight session on Monday to top $83 as the dollar extended 15 year lows versus the yen and weakened against the euro, bolstering the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. Earlier, oil prices had hit a five month peak near $83 a barrel, boosted by a slumping dollar after a BoJ rate cut and by tanker disruptions after a French strike and a closed Texan shipping route. November crude rose 1.42 percent to $82.63 per barrel, the highest settlement since closing at $86.19 on May 3rd.

Crude Oil vs. Financial Factors
An 8% stronger S&P 500 and a 4% weaker USD could very well push oil up to USD85/bbl level as a regression on oil as a function of the S&P 500 and the USD since September 1 suggests that current equity and currency levels are compatible with USD80/bbl oil. Crude oil prices are not only highly sensitive to global political and economic developments but also the US dollar as most of the worldwide oil sales are denominated in dollars. Usually when the dollar’s value declines as.......Read the entire article.



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Phil Flynn: Be Careful Of What You Wish For

The Federal Reserve wanted inflation and inflation is what they got! The Feds plan to restore activity to the economy by printing money and inspiring people to spend may have hit what you might call a reality check. While after a very weak jobs report showing that the economy lost 9500 jobs increasing the odds of quantitative easing, a report released simultaneously from the Department of Agriculture shows the perils of this policy. The USDA dramatically lowered its corn stocks to the lowest level in 14 years.

Corn shot up to the daily price limit sending shockwaves across the grain complex and the stock market as well. The Wall street Journal reported that, “A steep cut to U.S. corn harvest estimates triggered a rash of trades by investors who bet that tighter corn supplies could keep rippling through the stock market.“ “Analysts called the U.S. Department of Agriculture report a shocker. It shaved a record 6.7 bushels per acre from last month's corn yield estimate, pushing the figures well below.......Read the entire article.


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Bigger Gains, Less Time. Tap Into the Potential of Weekly Options

From Price Headley's  "Potential of Weekly Options Series".....

Traders spoke, and the exchanges listened. And, if the growing popularity of the new weekly expiration options is any indication, these shorter term puts and calls will soon join their monthly expiration counterparts as mainstream trading instruments.

Just as the name implies, the newest innovation in option trading are derivatives that are issued on Thursdays, and then expire the following Friday six trading days later.

But why bother with short duration instruments when the traditional monthly expiries have been working fine for all these years? There are actually quite a few advantages these instruments boast that simply can't be said for the alternatives. Consider this: Weekly options inherently offer a greater Delta. That just means each of them are more responsive to changes in the underlying security's price during their lifespan than monthly options are.

Weekly options don't suffer from a high theta
In other words, time decay isn't a major impediment for weekly options. Since they're so short in duration, there's no excess time value (or premium) baked into the price. As a result, weekly options tend to cost less.

While those two details are the favorable technicalities, the overarching attraction to these new short term derivatives is not only bigger picture, but much more important than the high delta and low theta.... weekly options are amazingly flexible.

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One of the more challenging drawbacks of trading traditional options has been the misalignment of a traders timeframe and the options lifespan.

For example, a trades sweet spot may end up spanning the last week of one month and the first week of the next month. However, since monthly options expire right before that sweet spot has occurred (and are issued several weeks before that period), a trader may be forced to choose an option, expiration, or strike price that doesn't fully maximize a trades potential.

Said another way, a lack of choices of when an options life begins and ends means the trade's theta and delta aren't ideal, leaving money on the table.

Weekly options, conversely, are new every week, so a trader can pick and choose to step into a trend that's moving at the time. Or, he or she can choose to pass on a trade that's stagnant at the time. And what happens when the underlying stock or index starts to move again? No problem,  just step in again with the next weekly issue. There's no need to waste time and tie up capital by holding an option during the underlying security's dead periods.

And what sorts of securities or indices currently offer these weekly options. All the usual suspects in terms of indices are available. Major indices like the S&P 500, and weekly options for some of the major sector ETFs are on the table as well. A few of the most highly-traded stocks are in the fray too. Since these are issued on a revolving basis at the discretion of the exchanges though (largely depending on demand), you never know which stock you may be able to play this way in the future. [Indeed, many traders have used them as a way to leverage a position for purely a one-time event, like an earnings announcement.]

While the advantages of trading weekly options are clear, a new set of trading mindsets and rules also apply:
Get your short term charts and ebb/flow predictions ready. One of the primary reasons equity and index options exist in their traditional time frames, with a lifespan of months if not more than a year, is to offer an active investor a way to leverage his or her capital, while allowing that same trader to ride out rough patches on the way to the end goal. Weekly options, on the other hand, are a short-term chartists dream. The key question is, where will this stock/index be in a week (or less)?

Use the market tide to your advantage. In the same vein is think short term, traders should tap the markets near term tidal forces since 3 out of 4 stocks tend to move in tandem with the markets strong moves. Yes, given enough time, the best individual stock trends can defy the market's ebb and low. The whole point here is speed though, which means calling the market right at any given time is half the battle (whether you?re trading stock or index options).

Keep the original intent in mind. It's contrary to most everything we?ve been taught as investors, but the whole point of weekly options is to reap the benefit from a short term move,  get in and out accordingly. Some traders are using them to profit from news announcements (like earnings). Others are just using them to hedge a position through a certain timeframe. Don't be afraid to cut loose once your reasonable objective has been met.

The proliferation of weekly option trading is sure to be a beneficial one for traders. Like any other trading arena though, it's the mastery of the nuances more than the mechanics that will be the key to your success.

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Sunday, October 10, 2010

Crude Oil and Energy Headlines For Sunday Evening Oct. 10th

Crude Oil Rises a Second Day Amid Speculation Fed May Buy Debt to Boost Economy

Crude Oil advanced for a second day in New York as the dollar fell against the euro after bigger than expected U.S. job losses spurred speculation that the Federal Reserve will buy more debt to boost the economy. Futures rose 1.2 percent on Oct. 8 after the Labor Department said that employers cut 95,000 workers in September following a revised 57,000 decrease in August. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a drop of 5,000. A weaker U.S. currency increases the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.

“The market is pricing in a high probability of quantitative easing and so the U.S. dollar has come off,” said Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. “A lot of it seems to be because of the weaker non-farm payrolls number.” Crude for November delivery gained as much as 76 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $83.42 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $83.13 at 12:43 p.m. Sydney time. Futures climbed 99 cents to $82.66 on Oct 8. Prices are up 4.8 percent this year.

The dollar lost 0.3 percent to $1.3978 per euro, after closing at $1.3939 on Oct. 8 in New York. The Fed may purchase bonds in a strategy known as quantitative easing, weakening the U.S. currency and boosting dollar denominated commodities. Brent crude for November settlement climbed as much as 53 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $84.56 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London. It jumped 60 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $84.03 on Oct. 8.......Read the entire article.


OPEC May Maintain Oil Output in Vienna on Uneven Economic Growth




OPEC may leave oil production unchanged when it meets in three days’ time because signs of a recovery in demand have yet to emerge among the world’s developed economies. The oil market is “a little oversupplied,” Mohamed al- Hamli, the oil minister of the United Arab Emirates, the third- biggest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said Oct. 9. OPEC members are all exceeding their allotted quotas after prices surged 78 percent in 2009 and a further 4 percent this year.
Fuel demand in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer, dropped 6.4 percent to 18.5 million barrels a day, according to the U.S. Energy Department, the biggest weekly decline since 2004. Oil prices are forecast to slide this week, according to an Oct. 8 survey of 33 analysts by Bloomberg. “I don’t think there will be any shift” in quotas by OPEC, Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah al-Attiyah said in a phone interview yesterday after meeting in Kuwait with ministers from Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf nations. “Producers and consumers are happy” with current oil prices, he said.
Crude oil closed at $82.66 a barrel in New York last week, about the same level as when the group last met on March 17. Growth in oil demand will be uneven next year, with the International Energy Agency forecasting a 4.3 percent increase in China and a 0.8 percent retraction in Europe’s five biggest countries. OPEC members, which supply 40 percent of the world’s oil, meet Oct. 14 at the group’s headquarters in Vienna........Read the entire article.


Hedge Funds Raise Bullish Bets on Oil to Five Month High



Hedge funds raised bullish bets on oil to the highest level in more than five months amid speculation that the Federal Reserve will enact further stimulus measures to keep the economic recovery on track. Hedge funds and other large speculators increased wagers on rising crude prices by 44 percent in the seven days ended Oct. 5, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly Commitments of Traders report. It was the highest level since April 23.
“The writing has been on the wall for the rally in crude oil for the last few weeks,” said Hamza Khan, an analyst with Schork Group Inc., a consulting company in Villanova, Pennsylvania. Crude has rallied 12 percent since Sept. 17 amid growing evidence that the Fed will need to start debt purchases to prevent the world’s biggest economy from sliding back into a recession, weakening the U.S. currency and boosting dollar denominated commodities. The dollar depreciated 1.1 percent last week, while crude advanced 1.3 percent.
Oil for November delivery rallied 99 cents to settle at $82.66 a barrel on Oct. 8 on the New York Mercantile Exchange after the Labor Department said U.S. employers cut hiring more than forecast in September, trimming 95,000 workers. The median estimate of 87 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a decline of 5,000 jobs........Read the entire article.

Courtesy of Bloomberg News







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