Crude oil falls as inventories increased sharply across the board. As of 10:40 EST crude oil is trading below the critical 48.50 level as institutional traders look to defend $45.00 this week. Next target is 1st support at $48.02.
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Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Crude Oil Lower As Earnings Reports Bring Down The Market's
June crude oil traded higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. But has traded below 48.0 in pre market trading as financial's weigh on the overall markets.
Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If June extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 45.11 is the next downside target.
Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 52.22 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.
Traders appear to be focused on the 48.50 50% retracement level as their line in the sand.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.43.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 52.22.
First support is the overnight low crossing at 48.02.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 45.11.
10:30 AM ET. Apr 17..US Energy Dept Oil Inventories
....Crude Oil Stocks (previous 366.7M)
....Crude Oil Stocks(Net Change}(expected+2.5M;previous +5.6M)
....Gasoline Stocks(previous 216.5M)
....Gasoline Stocks(Net Change)(expected-900K;previous-900K)
....Distillate Stocks(previous 139.6M)
....Distillate Stocks(Net Change)(expected-900K;previous-1.2M)
....Refinery Usage(expected 81%;previous 80.4%)
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The June S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally. Once again it appears the markets are allowing the financial's to take the lead and poor earnings reports this morning from Morgan Stanley are weighing on the market.
Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that a short term top appears to have been posted.
Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 831.56 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
If June renews the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target.
Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand, is 840.
First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 867.00.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 831.56.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 802.60.
The June S&P 500 Index was down 3.70 points. at 844.00 as of 6:05 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
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The June Dollar was lower due to light profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If June extends Monday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 88.26 is the next upside target. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 84.72 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 87.22.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 88.26.
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.94.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.61.
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Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Crude Oil Closes Higher After Trading At Six Week Low
June crude oil closed up $0.18 at $48.69 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short covering following strong losses on Monday. Prices hit a fresh six week low early on today and some near term chart damage has been inflicted this week. Crude oil bears have the near term technical advantage.
The U.S. stock indexes closed higher today and nearer their session high on a rebound from solid losses on Monday. Some positive comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner today helped the market. However, a slew of upcoming corporate earnings reports this week will likely keep the bulls tentative. The recent uptrends in the stock indexes will begin to "roll over" on the daily charts and start to produce bearish chart signals if more price weakness occurs this week.
June gold futures closed down $5.80 at $881.70 today. Prices closed near the session low today amid a rebound in the U.S. stock market today. The gold bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. Prices are in a two month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
The June U.S. dollar index closed down 16 points at 86.82 today. Prices closed near mid range today. Bulls still have the near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 89.00.
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Crude Oil Below $45, SABIC's First Loss, Iran Supports OPEC Cut
"Nymex Crude Falls Below $45 Barrel On Economic Fears, Expiration"
Crude oil futures were down Tuesday, slipping below $45 a barrel on lingering concerns about the U.S. economy.
Light, sweet crude for May delivery was down $1.82, or 4%, at $44.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after falling as low as $43.83 a barrel. June Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange fell $1.37 to $48.49 a barrel.
For the past month, oil prices have held up relatively well, hovering around or above the $50 a barrel mark despite domestic crude supplies swelling to 18 year highs. But crude sliced nearly a tenth off its value Monday, plunging with equity markets as investors worried about the health of U.S. banks, despite a series of better than expected quarterly results....Complete Story
"SABIC Drops After First Quarterly Loss Since 2001"
Saudi Basic Industries Corp., the world’s largest chemicals maker by market value, dropped the most in five months in Riyadh trading after reporting a surprise quarterly loss on slumping demand for plastics and fertilizers.
Sabic fell 9.9 percent to 42 riyals, the biggest decline since Nov. 22. The first quarter net loss was 974 million riyals ($259.7 million) after booking 1.18 billion riyals in goodwill writedowns, the Riyadh based company said today in a statement. The loss is the company’s first since the last quarter of 2001 and misses analyst estimates of 1.02 billion riyals in profit.
The first simultaneous recession for six decades in the U.S., Japan and Germany forced Sabic to slash polyethylene and polypropylene prices and cut its workforce as demand weakened for plastics....Complete Story
"Iran Supports OPEC Output Cut Conditionally"
Iran said on Thursday that it will conditionally support OPEC output cut, the official IRNA news agency reported.
Iran's representative to OPEC Seyyed Mohammad-Ali Khatibi voiced the conditional support to some reporters on the sidelines of an oil gas show in Tehran, MENA said.
"The OPEC decision to cut its output at a meeting in May in Vienna depends on the market condition," Khatibi was quoted as saying, adding "if there is an oversupply of oil (in the market), the output cut will be considered."....Complete Story
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Crude Oil Trading Lower, Breaking Through Critical Levels
Crude oil is trading lower as it extends Monday's breakout to the downside of this spring's symmetrical triangle formation.
Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If May extends Monday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 43.74 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.38 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.
Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 49.61
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 49.15.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.38.
First support is the overnight low crossing at 45.19.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 43.74.
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4:30 PM ET. Apr 17...API Oil Industry Report
.....................Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous +6.5M)
.....................Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -613K)
.....................Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +87K)
.....................Refinery Runs (previous 79.9%)
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The June S&P 500 index was steady to slightly higher due to short covering in the overnight trading session as it consolidates some of Monday's decline, but has now moved lower has we near the regular trading session.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short term top appears to have been posted. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 828.86 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target.
The pivot point, our line in the sand is 843.25.
First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 867.00.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 828.86.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 802.60.
The June S&P 500 Index was up 1.50 points. at 834.20 as of 5:51 AM CST. But has now sharply sold off [6+ points] before the opening of regular trading hours.
It had appeared that the overnight action set the stage for a steady to higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
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The June Dollar was lower due to light profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If June extends Monday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 88.26 is the next upside target. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 84.72 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 87.22.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 88.26.
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.82.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.48.
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Monday, April 20, 2009
Crude Oil Closes Lower, Pressured By Dollar and Stocks
June crude oil closed down $4.02 at $48.45 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session low today, hit a fresh five week low and saw a bearish downside "breakout" from a wedge pattern on the daily chart. Crude oil bears have regained the near term technical advantage. A big drop in the stock market today and a stronger U.S. dollar helped to pressure crude oil.
The June U.S. dollar index closed up 71 points at 87.00 today. Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh four week high today. Bulls have regained the near term technical advantage.
The U.S. stock indexes closed solidly lower today and near their session lows. The bulls faded today and need to show fresh power soon, or else the recent uptrends on the daily charts will begin to "roll over" and start to produce bearish chart signals.
A heavy slate of corporate earnings reports are due out this week and traders will examine them very closely. It's likely that most of those reports will encourage the stock index bears.
Haliburton Profits Tumble, Oil Falls the Most in Seven Weeks
"Oil Falls the Most in Seven Weeks as Dollar Gains, Stocks Drop"
Oil fell the most in seven weeks as a stronger dollar reduced the appeal of commodities and on speculation supplies will rise as the recession reduces demand.
Oil dropped as the dollar rose to a one-month high versus the euro, making crude less attractive as a currency and inflation hedge. An Energy Department report last week showed U.S. crude oil inventories climbed to the highest level since September 1990 as demand dropped.
“The strength of the dollar has prompted a selling in the oil market,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “We repeatedly shift from concentrating on the fundamentals of high inventories and low demand on one hand and hopes of recovery later this year. The fundamental picture has reasserted itself today.”....Complete Story
"Halliburton 1Q Profit Tumbles, Cuts Jobs"
Halliburton Co. kicked off the oil sector's first-quarter earnings period on a dour-but-not-unexpected note Monday, reporting net income that tumbled 35 percent from a year ago and offering a poor outlook. It also said it cut more than 2,000 jobs in the first three months of the year.
The company, which has corporate headquarters in Houston and Dubai, was hurt as oil and natural gas producers, stung by low prices, cut back on exploration and drilling, particularly in North America. That's bad news for service companies like Halliburton, which help producers with drilling, reservoir management and other oilfield work.
A major barometer of oil-patch activity is the U.S. rig count, which has fallen more than 50 percent since the end of August. Analysts say the count is likely to fall even more — perhaps another 20 to 30 percent — as producers continue to scale back spending amid bloated oil and gas supplies and weak demand....Complete Story
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Crude Oil Opens Down, Lower Prices Possible Near Term
May crude oil was sharply lower overnight and appears to be breaking out to the downside of this spring's symmetrical triangle formation.
Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Closes above March's high crossing at 54.66 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the current consolidation pattern.
The pivot point for Monday is 50.44
First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.89.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 52.45.
First support is the reaction low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.
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Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
The June S&P 500 index was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near term.
If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 829.14 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
The pivot point, our line in the sand, for Monday is 864.25
First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 867.00.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.
First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 831.70.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 829.14.
The June S&P 500 Index was down 11.40 points. at 855.40 as of 5:45 AM CST.
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The June Dollar was higher overnight and is trading above the reaction high crossing at 86.62 thereby renewing the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 84.72 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 86.85.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 88.26.
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.62.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.33.
Friday, April 17, 2009
Chinese Refining Price Increases, California Says No To New Drilling
"Crude Oil Rises as Chinese Refineries Increase Processing Rates"
Crude oil rose after a report showed that Chinese refineries bolstered processing rates for the first time in five months, signaling the government’s economic stimulus measures improved fuel demand. China refined 29.4 million metric tons of crude, or about 6.92 million barrels a day, in March, the China Mainland Marketing Research Co. said in a statement today. That’s up 0.7 percent from a year earlier. U.S. stocks drifted between gains and losses....Complete Story
"California Officials Say No to New Offshore Drilling"
California officials expressed unanimous opposition Thursday to new offshore oil and gas drilling in a meeting U.S. Interior Secretary Ken Salazar held to gauge public sentiment on the issue. Opening the California coast to drilling for oil and natural gas would be an environmental and economic disaster for the state, said Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif. The most populous U.S. state relies on tourism, recreation and other coastal industries....Complete Story
"Norway Oil Industry Seen At Risk If New Areas Not Opened"
Norway's oil and gas production and industry risk going into serious decline by the mid-2020s if a ban on exploration in unexplored offshore areas in the North isn't lifted quickly, oil chiefs say. Combined oil and gas production from Norway, the second-biggest gas exporter to Europe after Russia, and the world's fifth-largest oil exporter, is at a peak that operators hope to sustain until at least 2015, while stemming the decline beyond that....Complete Story
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Bears Seem To Have Term Advantage On Crude Oil
May crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. Closes above March's high crossing at 54.66 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the current consolidation pattern.
First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.
First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.
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The June S&P 500 index was steady to slightly lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near term.
If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 824.30 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Friday's pivot point, the line in the sand, is 856.25
First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 867.00.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.
First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 831.70.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 824.30.
The June S&P 500 Index was down 0.10 points. at 861.40 as of 5:58 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
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The June Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24 would open the door for additional short covering gains during April.
If June renews Monday's decline, last Monday's low crossing at 84.10 is the next downside target. Closes below last Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15.
First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.
First support is last Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.
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Thursday, April 16, 2009
Crude Oil Closes Higher On Choppy Trading
May crude oil closed up $0.69 at $49.94 a barrel today. Prices closed near mid range today in quieter trading. Trading has turned choppy. A potentially bearish descending triangle pattern is in place on the daily bar chart. Crude oil bulls and bears are on a level near term technical playing field.
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The June U.S. dollar index closed up 10 points at 85.46 today. Prices closed near mid range today. Bulls and bears are on a level near term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 86.61.
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The June S&P 500 futures index closed up 13.20 at 861.70. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh nine week high. The June Dow futures closed up 80 points at 8,060. Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh nine week high today.
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Crude Rises On Jobless Claims, Petrobras Seeks Additional Rigs
"Crude Oil Rises After Unexpected Decline in U.S. Jobless Claims"
Crude oil rose after the number of U.S. workers claiming jobless benefits unexpectedly fell last week, indicating the pace of economic decline may be slowing. Oil climbed as much as 2.5 percent after the Labor Department reported that claims decreased by 53,000 to 610,000 in the week ended April 11, the fewest since January. China, the biggest oil consumer after the U.S., grew 6.1 percent during the first quarter, the slowest pace in almost 10 years....Complete Story
"Petrobras Seeks New Rigs, Marches On With Expansion Plan"
Petrobras will start seeking bids for new rigs in the next couple of months as it marches on with its ambitious five-year investment plan. The Brazilian state energy giant in January announced it planned to invest $174.4 billion in 2009-13, including $28.6 billion this year -- an increase from $23 billion in 2008, which is unusual as global oil majors including U.S. firms Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips are cutting back on investment....Complete Story
"Total, China In Venezuela Oil Talks"
France's Total, China National Petroleum Corp and Petroleos de Venezuela are in advanced talks about a deal to produce and refine Venezuelan oil to send to China, the Wall Street Journal reported. Senior officials from all three groups plan to meet in Caracas next month to discuss a possible multi billion dollar accord, the paper said on Wednesday, citing people close to the talks.
The 20 year venture could see 200,000 barrels of oil a day shipped to China possibly starting in 2013....Complete Story
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Crude Higher On Short Covering, Signals Turn Bearish
May crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. However, stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Closes above March's high crossing at 54.66 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the current consolidation pattern.
First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.
First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.
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The June S&P 500 index was steady to slightly lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 819.51 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target.
Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 844.
First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 861.30.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.
First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 831.70.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 819.51.
The June S&P 500 Index was down 1.10 points. at 847.40 as of 6:00 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
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The June Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If June extends this week's decline, last Monday's low crossing at 84.10 is the next downside target. Closes below last Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24 would open the door for additional short covering gains during April.
First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.
First support is last Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Crude Oil Closes Near The Session Lows Again
May crude oil closed up $0.12 at $49.53 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today. Trading has turned choppy. A bearish weekly DOE storage report did limit gains in crude and kept prices under pressure most of the day. Crude oil bulls and bears are still on a level near term technical playing field.
The U.S. stock indexes closed mixed but nearer their session highs today following more weak U.S. economic data. However, there were some minor positives in the data that gave stock traders some confidence the worst of the economic crisis is past. Stock index futures prices are still in uptrends from the March lows.
The June U.S. dollar index closed up 32 points at 85.25 today. Prices closed near mid range today. Bulls and bears are back on a level near term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 86.61.
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Crude Oil falls As Supplies Rise, OPEC Cuts Forcast
"Crude Oil Falls As U.S. Supplies Rise To The Highest Since 1990"
Crude oil fell after a government report showed that U.S. stockpiles climbed to the highest level in almost 19 years as demand dropped. Inventories rose 5.67 million barrels to 366.7 million last week, the highest since September 1990, the Energy Department said today....Complete Story
"Energy Stocks Experience Difficult First Quarter"
The S&P 500 Index experienced an 11.7% loss for the first quarter of 2009 while the index's Energy sector generated a slightly worse quarterly performance with a 12.1% loss. Of the S&P 500's ten industry sectors, only Technology produced a positive investor return....Complete Story
"OPEC Cuts 2009 Oil Demand Forecast As World Economy Contracts"
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its forecast for oil demand this year for an eighth successive month as the economic slowdown in the world’s biggest oil consumers worsens. The estimate for 2009 global demand was lowered by 430,000 barrels a day....Complete Story
Crude Oil Higher Overnight, Will Equities Bring Oil Down?
May crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline.
However, stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Closes above March's high crossing at 54.66 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the current consolidation pattern.
First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.
First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.
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The June S&P 500 index was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI remain overbought.
If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 816.28 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Wednesday's daily pivot point is 845, weekly pivot is 837.
First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 861.30.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 833.84.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 816.28.
The June S&P 500 Index was down 1.10 points. at 839.20 as of 6:01 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
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The June Dollar was lower overnight and is poised to extend Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If June extends this week's decline, last Monday's low crossing at 84.10 is the next downside target. Closes below last Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24 would open the door for additional short covering gains during April.
First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.
First support is last Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.
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10:30 AM ET. Apr 10..US Energy Dept Oil Inventories
.....Crude Oil Stocks (previous 361M)
.....Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (expected +2.1M; previous +1.6M)
.....Gasoline Stocks (previous 217.4M)
.....Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (expected -500K; previous +656K)
.....Distillate Stocks (previous 140.7M)
.....Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (expected -700K; previous -3.3M)
.....Refinery Usage (expected 82.1%; previous 81.8%)
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Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Crude Oil Falls On Weak Retail Numbers, OPEC Thwarted By Brazil and Russia
"Crude Oil Falls After U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Drop"
Crude oil fell after a report showed that retail sales in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy consuming country, unexpectedly declined in March. The oil market retreated after the Commerce Department reported that sales dropped 1.1 percent. Prices paid to U.S. producers decreased in March after two months of gains, a Labor Department report showed....Complete Story
"World Awash in Oil: Demand Lacking Says IEA"
On Friday the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its forecast for global oil demand by one million barrels per day (b/d) to 83.4 million b/d. That means the world will be using approximately 2.4 million b/d less than in 2008, or roughly a 3% decline from a year ago. This matches the first year decline experienced during the 1979-1983 period, but the IEA does not....Complete Story
"OPEC Cuts Thwarted as Brazil, Russia Grab U.S. Market"
As OPEC nations make their biggest oil production cuts on record, Brazil, Russia and the U.S. are pumping more, threatening to send crude back below $50 a barrel as demand slows. U.S. imports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries fell 818,000 barrels a day, or 14 percent, to 5.02 million in January from a year earlier....Complete Story
"Qatar Energy Minister Says Oil Between $40-50/Barrel Realistic"
Qatar's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy and Industry Abdullah al-Attiya said on Monday that oil prices between $40 and $50 per barrel are realistic under the current global financial crisis. Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum....Complete Story
Crude Oil Higher Overnight On Short Covering
May crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If May extends last Thursday's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 then January's high crossing at 58.31 are the next upside targets. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.
First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.
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The June S&P 500 index was steady to lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 813.68 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 861.30.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 830.56.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 813.66.
The June S&P 500 Index was down 2.10 points. at 851.90 as of 5:58 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
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The June Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.
If June renews last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 86.61 is the next upside target. Closes below last Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15.
First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.
First support is last Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.
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4:30 PM ET. Apr 10...API Oil Industry Report
.....................Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous +3.2M)
.....................Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -451K)
.....................Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +1.7M)
.....................Refinery Runs (previous 81.8%)
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