Crude Oil Rises Above $82 as U.S. Imports, Fuel Supplies Drop

Crude oil rose above $82 a barrel after the Energy Department reported U.S. imports fell to a seasonal low and fuel inventories dropped. Crude imports slipped 0.8 percent last week to the smallest level for the second week in March since 2002. Supplies of gasoline and distillate fuels, which include heating oil and diesel, decreased more than forecast by analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. OPEC ministers meeting in Vienna today left production targets unchanged to support current price levels.

“Imports are down to a really, really small trickle,” said Carl Larry, president of Oil Outlooks & Opinions LLC in Houston. “We’re not able to bring in as much oil as we’d like to because the oil that is out there is going elsewhere. When the economy does start to grow and the refineries start to pick up runs, that crude isn’t going to be there.” Crude oil for April delivery gained $1.22, or 1.5 percent, to $82.92 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have increased 69 percent in the past year. Oil traded at $82.50 a barrel before the release of the inventory report at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.

Oil imports decreased by 64,000 barrels a day last week to 8.43 million. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries delivered 47 percent of its crude and refined products to the Asia Pacific region in 2008, up from 45 percent the year before, according to data on its Web site. That compares with a decline in the U.S. to 22 percent in 2008 from 26 percent in 2007.....Read the entire article.

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New Video: Dan Dicker and Stephen Schork "Avoid Refiners"

Dan Dicker, expert trader and Stephen Schork, president of the Schork Report, break down oil refiners and whether or not now is the time to buy.



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Crude Oil Numbers For Wednesday Morning

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends Tuesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 85.43 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 79.41 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. Wednesday's pivot point is 81.04. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 82.78. Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 83.47. First support is Monday's low crossing at 79.41. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 77.44.

Natural gas was slightly lower overnight as it extends this winter's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 4.157 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.726 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. Wednesday's pivot point is 4.364. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.535. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.726. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.400. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.157.

The U.S. Dollar was lower overnight and has broken out below the lower boundary of trading range of the past six weeks, which crosses at 79.92. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 79.92 would open the door for a larger degree decline during March. If June renews this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 81.97 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.50. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.71. First support is the overnight low crossing at 79.74. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 79.17.

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Where is Crude Oil Headed on Wednesday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Tuesday Evening

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last Friday's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May extends Monday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 77.44 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 85.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 82.32. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 85.43. First support is Monday's low crossing at 80.89. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 77.44.

Natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it extends this winter's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.157 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.777 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.578. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.777. First support is today's low crossing at 4.400. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.157.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Tuesday and is challenging the lower boundary of the trading range of the past six weeks, which crosses at 79.92. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 79.92 are needed to confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range and would open the door for a larger degree decline into spring. If June renews this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 81.97 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 81.70. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 81.97. First support is the reaction low crossing at 79.92. Second support is today's low crossing at 79.85.

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Crude Oil Gains the Most in Four Weeks in New York as the Dollar Weakens

Crude oil rose the most in four weeks as the dollar fell against the euro, buoying demand for most commodities as an alternative investment, and as OPEC ministers indicated they would refrain from increasing output. Oil gained as much as 2.7 percent as the dollar weakened against the euro after Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services affirmed its sovereign credit ratings on Greece. Saudi Arabia’s oil minister said yesterday oil prices are in the right range. The kingdom is OPEC’s biggest producer.

“It’s a pretty good move down for the dollar, and that’s definitely getting things perked up,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Round Earth Capital, a New York based hedge fund that focuses on food and energy commodities. “The OPEC decision is baked in the cake.” Crude oil for April delivery rose $1.81, or 2.3 percent, to $81.61 a barrel at 10:59 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, oil touched $81.99 a barrel in its biggest increase since Feb. 16. Oil has advanced 72 percent in the past year.

Most major currencies, including the dollar, weakened against the euro after European finance ministers worked out a strategy for emergency loans to Greece should the nation’s plan to reduce the region’s biggest budget deficit fall. S&P affirmed its BBB+ long term and A-2 short term credit ratings on Greece. The dollar weakened 0.6 percent against the euro to $1.3762 at 11:02 a.m. in New York from $1.3677 yesterday. Some investors buy commodities like oil, gold and copper as an alternative investment to the dollar.

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities advanced for the first time in seven days, gaining 0.7 percent to 272.74. Twelve of the commodities increased, led by heating oil, crude and gasoline.....Read the entire article.

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Phil Flynn: You've Got A Friend

When your down and troubled and you need a helping hand and nothing oh nothing is going right. Just close your eyes and think of Ben and soon he will be there to brighten even your darkest night. You’ve got a friend! The Fed has been the oil bull best friend but is that friendship going to start to become a little strained. With a better than expected jobs report and dissension within the committee the possibility of laying the groundwork for change is in the language in the much debated Fed Statement is rising. Let’s face it oil has been dependant on Fed policy and for all intents and purposes it has been a one sided relationship.

Now with the Fed feeling pressure to change the language about rates staying low for an extended period oil bulls may have their dreams of $85 or $90 dollar barrel oil squashed despite the illusion of their peak oil fantasies. Oh yes there are some that are betting on a change in the language even though the majority think things will not change but any hint of a softening in Fed resolve will be a big blow to oil bulls.

Oil broke the sharp intermediate uptrend and despite the fact that the move on a short term bias makes us look oversold and on target for an attempt at a recovery rally at least on a day trade basis the truth is that without more help by the Fed the oil bulls have failed to break out of the wider trading range with the highs established earlier this year. With the cheaters in the OPEC cartel beginning to meet and the Chinese more than likely to raise reserve requirements on their banks (assuming their egos and politics do not get in the way) the bulls will need a friend in Ben if they are going they have the fortitude to take oil to the next level If not then repeated failures to take out the mid eighties we will then eventually go and test the lower end of the range. Does this sound familiar?

The other help to the bulls may come from the Chinese. Now that President Obama has politicized the Chinese’s currency peg to the dollar in the eyes of the Chinese it makes it less likely that they will let the Yuan float .The Chinese says in effect that the policy of devaluing our currency to improve our competitive advantage. Well they might have a point if it were not for the fact the china pegged their currency to the dollar when the dollar was strong as well. The AFP reports that China on Tuesday dismissed calls from US lawmakers for Beijing to be labeled a currency manipulator, saying the value of the Yuan was not to blame for global trade imbalances. The comments echoed those by Premier Wen Jiabao at the weekend, who said Beijing would not yield to foreign pressure to allow the Yuan to appreciate, and warned other countries to stop "finger-pointing".

The AFP says that on Monday, a group of 130 Democratic and Republican lawmakers called on US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to single out China's Yuan policy in a report due next month, saying Beijing was in effect subsidizing exports. "The impact of China's currency manipulation on the US economy cannot be overstated," the lawmakers said in the letter submitted to Geithner and US Commerce Secretary Gary Locke."Maintaining its currency at a devalued exchange rate provides a subsidy to Chinese companies and unfairly disadvantages foreign competitors." us Chinese commerce ministry spokesman Yao Jian said the strong Yuan, effectively pegged to the dollar since mid-2008, was not the reason for China's trade surplus.


Energy analyst Phil Flynn can reached at pflynn@pfgbest.com


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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Tuesday

Crude oil's break of 80.61 support indicates that a short term top is already formed at 83.16 on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Deeper decline should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 83.16 at 77.94 next and break will target 6.18% retracement at 74.72. On the upside, in case of recovery, break of 83.16 is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, we'd expect another fall as correction from 83.16 extends.

In the bigger picture, crude oil is still trading well inside medium term rising channel and the rise from 33.2 might still be in progress. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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New Video: A Sneak Peek At Gold

This week could be shaping up to be an extraordinary week in the markets. I strongly recommend that traders everywhere take precautionary measure measures to protect capital.

Last week we gave you a Trade Triangle alert to exit the gold market on the long side. Since that alert was issued gold has dropped significantly.

In today's short video we bring you up to date with our thoughts on what we think is going to happen next to gold.

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Where is Crude Oil Headed on Tuesday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Monday Evening

Crude oil closed lower on Monday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.44 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 77.44 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.44 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.44. Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 83.47. First support is today's low crossing at 80.89. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 77.44.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidates some of this winter's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.157 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.824 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.614. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.824. First support is today's low crossing at 4.407. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.157.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Monday as it rebounds off the lower boundary of the trading range of the past six weeks. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 79.92 are needed to confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range and would open the door for a larger degree decline into spring. If June renews this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 81.97 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 81.70. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 81.97. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 79.95. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 79.92.

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New Video: A Sneak Peek At The S&P 500

This week could be shaping up to be an extraordinary week in the markets. We strongly recommend that traders everywhere take precautionary measure measures to protect capital.

While the S&P 500 made new highs for the year last week, it did not do so in a very convincing manner. In today's short video we show you some of the elements that we think should be cause for concern.

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Oil Drops to One Week Low Below $80 a Barrel as Dollar Gains

Crude oil fell to the lowest level in more than a week as the dollar gained, curbing demand for most commodities as an alternative investment.

Oil decreased as much as 2.3 percent as the dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against six others, advanced for the first time in four days and as crude broke through a technical-support level at $80 a barrel.

“There’s some dollar buying, which is putting some pressure on commodities,” said Tom Bentz, a broker at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. The selling “is more technical than anything else.”

Crude oil for April delivery fell $1.70, or 2.1 percent, to $79.54 a barrel at 11:06 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, it touched $79.40 a barrel, the lowest price since March 2 on an intraday basis. Crude has risen 73 percent in the past year.

The dollar index climbed 0.4 percent to 80.184, its first increase since March 9.

Equities retreated, led by emerging markets, and commodities declined on concern that China and India will seek to restrict economic growth to curb inflation.

“That kind of sets up for a possible topping scenario in crude oil,” said Richard Ilczyszyn, a Chicago-based senior market strategist with Lind-Waldock, a division of MF Global Ltd.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which rose to a 17-month high on March 11, lost 0.5 percent to 1,144.39 at 11:08 a.m. in New York. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at the lowest level in five weeks.

China Growth

China will account for almost a third of global oil-demand growth this year, the International Energy Agency said last week as it raised its forecast for global oil demand this year by 70,000 barrels a day to 86.6 million. Economies outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development will continue to lead a recovery in energy consumption, it said.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will maintain existing production at a meeting this week as it awaits further confirmation of a recovery in demand, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts. The group, which pumps 40 percent of the world’s oil, meets for the first time this year on March 17.

Brent crude oil for April settlement dropped $1.81, or 2.3 percent, to $77.65 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.


Reporter Margot Habiby can be contacted at mhabiby@bloomberg.net

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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Monday

Crude oil drops further to as low as 80.44 and momentum continues to turn to the downside with 4 hours MACD turned negative. However, with 80.16 minor support intact, there is still no confirmation of topping yet and another rise could still be seen to retest 83.95 resistance before topping. However, break of 80.16 will suggest that a short term top is already formed at 83.16 with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and deeper fall should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 83.16 at 77.94 next.

In the bigger picture, crude oil is still trading well inside medium term rising channel and the rise from 33.2 might still be in progress. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Technical View of What’s Next for Precious Metals, Stocks & the Dollar

From guest analyst Chris Vermeulen.....

Last weeks price action unfolded just as we expected. Money poured into stocks with the focus being on small cap, banks and technology stocks. The fact that these sectors are showing strength while utilities, health care and consumer staples lag is a good sign that investors are once again taking risks in the market.

Because investors and traders are bullish on the stock market again the money flow into the safe havens like Gold and Silver decrease. I believe this is the reason stocks moved up last week while precious metals drifted lower.

Below are three charts (Dollar, Gold and Silver) showing what I think is most likely to happen in the coming week or two.

US Dollar Index – Daily Chart
The US Dollar has put in a very nice bounce/rally since the low in November 2009. Last month the dollar finally reached a key resistance level of 81. I have been talking about this major resistance level since January as the Dollar would find it difficult to break above this level.

Take a look at the daily chart below. You can see a head & shoulders pattern and a neckline which appears to have broken late Friday afternoon. There is a strong chance we could see 78 reached which is the measured move down. If we get follow through selling this week then I would expect 78 to be touched within 5-10 days.

GLD & SLV ETF Trading Charts
Precious metals have been moving very well for us recently. From looking at the charts using technical analysis we were able to catch the Feb. 5th low and also the Feb. 25th low on a several ETF’s.

As you can see from the GLD and SLV charts, both metals are not in an uptrend showing bullish chart patterns and trading at support. If we see the US Dollar break down next week then be ready to go long gold, silver and stocks.



Precious Metals, Stocks and the Dollar Trading Conclusion:
As a technical analyst the above charts are pointing to higher prices in the coming day’s which is exciting for us all. BUT when things are this perfect looking we must be very cautious as the market has way to suck people into setups like this and spit them out a couple days later for a nasty loss.

Understanding how the market moves is crucial for avoiding and/or minimizing losses when trades go against us. That is why I continue to wait for my signature low risk setup before putting any money to work.

My focus is to take the least amount of trades possible each year, only focusing on the best of the best setups. My low risk setups require downside risk to be under 3% for the investment of choice when the broad market shows signs of strength, as well. I use several different types of analysis to confirm if a setup has a high probability of winning and those which do are the trades I take along with my subscribers.

It is very important to wait for the market to confirm a move higher before taking a position with this type of setup. The market could go either way quickly and jumping the gun is not a safe bet.

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Phil Flynn: Absolutely Astonishing

Oil prices are on the rise again as the International Energy Agency is the latest forecaster to increase their expectations for China oil demand. Yet the IEA went far beyond just increasing demand expectations for China they said that the demand growth that we have seen so far is astonishing. The IEA beat all the other forecasters by predicting that world demand will increase by 70,000 barrels a day to 86.6 million barrels or close to 1.6 million barrels more than a year ago.

Yet what have captured the imagination of the marketplace were their comments that Chinese demand surged by an “astonishing,” 28 percent year on year in January. That led to the IEA astonishing forecast for a growth in China demand to increase by 130,000 barrels a day to 9 million barrels a day, representing an increase of 6.2 percent from 2009.

Of course at the same despite all of these rising demand expectations are China on an unsustainable path? First it was the Department of Energy, then it was the OPEC cartel and now it is the International Energy Agency. Yet this demand growth is not without risks both political and economic and the White House may be raising the stakes and the pressure on the Chinese to let some air out of this risky China bubble and adding to tensions.

China’s economy is leading to a global recovery but also is adding to tension between China and the Obama administration. Yesterday the Obama administration promised a mini cabinet to focus on imports. He also called on the Chinese to embrace a "market oriented" exchange rate policy .President Obama also said he would start to enforce existing trade deals but what made the Chinese mad was that was the currency comment.

Long story short, the Chinese bubble may the biggest threat to the global economic recovery.

Analyst Phil Flynn can be reached at pflynn@pfgbest.com



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Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Crude oil edged higher to 83.16 last week but upside was again limited by loss of momentum. Nevertheless, there is no confirmation of topping yet with 80.16 minor support intact and current rally from 69.50 could still continue to retest 83.95 high. On the downside, however, note that break of 80.16 will indicate that a short term top is already in place and deeper fall should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 83.16 at 77.94 next.

In the bigger picture, crude oil is still trading well inside medium term rising channel and the rise from 33.2 might still be in progress. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.

In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.....
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Friday Evening

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of this rally off February's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in place. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.18 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 85.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 83.47. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 85.43. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.35. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.18.

Natural gas closed lower on Friday as it extends some of this winter's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.157 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.875 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.640. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.875. First support is today's low crossing at 4.443. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.157.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Friday and is challenging the lower boundary of the trading range of the past five weeks. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 79.92 are needed to confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range and would open the door for a larger degree decline into spring. If June renews this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 81.97 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 81.70. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 81.97. First support is today's low crossing at 79.95. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 79.92.


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Oil Falls the Most in Two Weeks After Consumer Sentiment Drops

Crude oil declined the most in two weeks after a report showed that confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly dropped this month. Oil fell as much as 1.7 percent as the Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index dropped to 72.5 from February’s reading of 73.6. A gain to 74 was forecast, according to the median of 68 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Prearranged orders to sell oil at specific prices, known as stops, may have been triggered when oil breached today’s low.

“The selling started after the consumer confidence numbers were released,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “The market has been tenuous and once we started working lower the move gathered strength. We’ve taken out some stops and are looking to test more.” Crude oil for April delivery fell $1.16, or 1.4 percent, to $80.95 a barrel at 12:27 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices touched $83.16, the highest level since Jan. 11. Futures are little changed this week and are 72 percent higher than a year ago.

Brent crude oil for April delivery declined $1.24 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $79.04 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Prices climbed earlier as retail sales gained. The Commerce Department reported that purchases gained 0.3 percent last month. A 0.2 percent decline was projected, according economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. “There’s a rush to interpret every new piece of economic data,” said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president of energy at MF Global in New York. “We did reach $83.16, a new high, but otherwise today is a sleeper.”

Reporter Mark Shenk can be reached at mshenk1@bloomberg.net


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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Friday

While upside momentum is diminishing in crude oil, further rise is still in favor with 80.16 minor support index. Current rally from 69.50 could extend further to retest 83.95 high. Nevertheless, break of 80.16 will indicate that a short term top is already in place and deeper pull back should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 83.03 at 77.86 and below.

In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The strong rebound from 69.50 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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