Crude oil was slightly lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last week's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If January extends the rally off last week's low, November's high crossing at 89.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.82 would temper the near term friendly outlook.
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 87.10
Second resistance is November's high crossing at 89.10
Crude oil pivot point for Thursday morning is 85.78
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.95
Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.82
Natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last week's high. However, stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If January renews this week's decline, November's low crossing at 3.853 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.312 would temper the near term bearish outlook.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.312
Second resistance is last week's high crossing at 4.515
Natural gas pivot point for Thursday morning is 4.252
First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.126
Second support is November's low crossing at 3.853
Gold was higher overnight as it continues to rebound off the mid-November low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If December extends the rebound off the mid-November low, November's high crossing at 1424.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 1370.40 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1396.60
Second resistance is November's high crossing at 1424.30
Gold pivot point for Thursday morning is 1,389.90
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1370.40
Second support is the 25% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1330.20
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Thursday, December 2, 2010
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Commodity Corner: Crude Oil Up 3%
According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the PMI increased by 0.9 percent in November. Also benefiting oil was an ADP Employer Services report indicating that private sector employers in the U.S. added 93,000 jobs last month. The finding was above expectations.
Bullish sentiment also was evident in the natural gas futures price. January natural gas increased nine cents to settle at $4.27 per thousand cubic feet. Projections of below normal temperatures through next week in the Northeast and Midwest provided an impetus for Wednesday's increase. The natural gas futures price fluctuated from $4.16 to $4.32.
Gasoline for January delivery also ended the day higher, gaining 13 cents to settle at $2.30 a gallon. It peaked at $2.31 and bottomed out at $2.18. The December gasoline contract, which expired Tuesday, finished at $2.27.
Posted courtesy of Rigzone.Com
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Bloomberg: Crude Oil Rises on Gain in Chinese Output, Reduced European Debt Concern
“As the global economy goes, so goes oil,” said Andre Julian, chief financial officer and senior market strategist at OpVest Wealth Management in Irvine, California. “The economic numbers in China and elsewhere today have been very strong and point to accelerating growth.” Crude oil for January delivery increased $2.16, or 2.6 percent, to $86.27 a barrel at 12:30 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices climbed to $86.47, the highest level since Nov. 12.
Brent crude oil for January settlement rose $2.32, or 2.7 percent, to $88.24 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Goldman increased its forecast for U.S. gross domestic product growth next year to 2.7 percent from 2 percent. The U.S. economy will expand 3.6 percent in 2012, according to a report sent to Goldman Sachs clients today. The global economy will expand 4.6 percent next year and 4.8 percent in 2012, the bank said.
“Goldman has been banging the bull drum all year,” said Phil Flynn, a Chicago-based analyst and trader with investment adviser PFGBest.......Read the entire article.
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Is Gold Headed For a Major Correction?
David Banister of Market Trends.Com has been hitting gold spot on. And we are lucky enough to get another guest post from him. Let's see what David is thinking about the possibility that gold will head to 1480-1525 before a major correction......
Gold has been consolidating other than a spike to an intermediate wave 3 top of $1424, for about 7 weeks or so now. It’s typical to see Fibonacci periods of time as part of consolidations whether it be an individual stock or a precious metal in this case. Gold was overbought at the $1425 pivot highs a few weeks ago, and that terminated what I label a “wave 3″ pattern. This led us into a 4th wave corrective pattern which we remain in now. My worst case pivot low is expected at $1,321 and so far we have seen $1,331 an ounce and then an ensuing bounce to $1370 ranges.
In the intermediate term then, I’m looking for further consolidation likely for another week or so followed by a breakout over $1425 leading to my objectives of $1480-$1525 to complete the entire rally from the $1040 lows in February of this year. Many are starting to get bearish on Gold and Silver up here, and to me that is bullish and indicative of “4th wave mentality”. In a 4th wave, there is growing bearish sentiment, but not so much as to topple the bull structure.
To wit, last week in my ATP service I recommended a brand new Core Position in a Gold,Silver stock and it rallied as much as 40% intra-week at it’s highs. We are in a super bull market for Gold stocks as I outlined in August of 2009, and we have another four years left to go. I’m seeing alot of amazing chart patterns in the Junior space that are in relentless climbs. Owning the the explorers that are finding the Gold is how best to take advantage of the remaining four years. At ATP, we are exposed to Rare Earths, Silver, Gold, and Oil and Gas related plays in our Core Positions. Make sure you own hard assets and precious metals resources one way or another. My silver forecast in late August was basically predicated on the small investor swarming into the Silver market to buy up coins, look for that to continue and Silver to be over $30 in the not too distant future.
Below is my updated Gold forecast using a weekly chart, remember to Keep it Simple!
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Gold has been consolidating other than a spike to an intermediate wave 3 top of $1424, for about 7 weeks or so now. It’s typical to see Fibonacci periods of time as part of consolidations whether it be an individual stock or a precious metal in this case. Gold was overbought at the $1425 pivot highs a few weeks ago, and that terminated what I label a “wave 3″ pattern. This led us into a 4th wave corrective pattern which we remain in now. My worst case pivot low is expected at $1,321 and so far we have seen $1,331 an ounce and then an ensuing bounce to $1370 ranges.
In the intermediate term then, I’m looking for further consolidation likely for another week or so followed by a breakout over $1425 leading to my objectives of $1480-$1525 to complete the entire rally from the $1040 lows in February of this year. Many are starting to get bearish on Gold and Silver up here, and to me that is bullish and indicative of “4th wave mentality”. In a 4th wave, there is growing bearish sentiment, but not so much as to topple the bull structure.
To wit, last week in my ATP service I recommended a brand new Core Position in a Gold,Silver stock and it rallied as much as 40% intra-week at it’s highs. We are in a super bull market for Gold stocks as I outlined in August of 2009, and we have another four years left to go. I’m seeing alot of amazing chart patterns in the Junior space that are in relentless climbs. Owning the the explorers that are finding the Gold is how best to take advantage of the remaining four years. At ATP, we are exposed to Rare Earths, Silver, Gold, and Oil and Gas related plays in our Core Positions. Make sure you own hard assets and precious metals resources one way or another. My silver forecast in late August was basically predicated on the small investor swarming into the Silver market to buy up coins, look for that to continue and Silver to be over $30 in the not too distant future.
Below is my updated Gold forecast using a weekly chart, remember to Keep it Simple!
You can follow our weekly updates or consider subscribing by going to Market Trend Forecast.com
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Phil Flynn: A Study In Contradictions
Or perhaps the market might take heart from the fact that consumer confidence soared to a reading of 54.1, the highest level since June in the heart of the Christmas shopping season. Yet with the dark clouds emanating out of Europe and commodity funds getting frustrated with their $100 barrel oil bets, prices drove lower as funds wanted to take what profit incentive fees they could before they go flat for the holiday and start shopping for that GI Joe with the Kung-Fu grip for their kids. That was the case even as the dollar rallied, capping off a month where the dollar rallied off its QE2 lows hitting the highest levels since the Fed hinted that they would print more money as investors seek shelter from economic storm clouds in Europe. The oil bulls lost their moxie as risk in the......Read the entire article.
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Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Market Commentary For Wednesday Morning Dec. 1st
Crude oil was higher overnight and is poised to extend the rally off last week's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If January extends the rally off last week's low, November's high crossing at 89.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.12 would temper the near term friendly outlook.
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 85.90
Second resistance is November's high crossing at 89.10
Crude oil pivot point for Wednesday morning is 84.52
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.12
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 80.28
Gold was higher overnight as it continues to rebound off the mid-November low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If December extends the rebound off the mid-November low, November's high crossing at 1424.30 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off last month's low, the reaction low crossing at 1315.60 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1396.60
Second resistance is November's high crossing at 1424.30
Gold pivot point for Wednesday morning is 1,380.40
First support is the 25% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1330.20
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1315.60
Natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last week's high. However, stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If January extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 3.853 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.295 would temper the near term bearish outlook.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.295
Second resistance is last week's high crossing at 4.515
Natural gas pivot point for Wednesday morning is 4.187
First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.126
Second support is November's low crossing at 3.853
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If January extends the rally off last week's low, November's high crossing at 89.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.12 would temper the near term friendly outlook.
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 85.90
Second resistance is November's high crossing at 89.10
Crude oil pivot point for Wednesday morning is 84.52
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.12
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 80.28
Gold was higher overnight as it continues to rebound off the mid-November low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If December extends the rebound off the mid-November low, November's high crossing at 1424.30 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off last month's low, the reaction low crossing at 1315.60 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1396.60
Second resistance is November's high crossing at 1424.30
Gold pivot point for Wednesday morning is 1,380.40
First support is the 25% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1330.20
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1315.60
Natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last week's high. However, stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If January extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 3.853 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.295 would temper the near term bearish outlook.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.295
Second resistance is last week's high crossing at 4.515
Natural gas pivot point for Wednesday morning is 4.187
First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.126
Second support is November's low crossing at 3.853
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Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Debt Contagion Spreads to Italy, Belgium. Global Markets Tumble
Sovereign concerns about debt-ridden European countries remained elevated even though a bailout program of 85B euro for Ireland has been approved. The rescue program's impacts on easing worries were short-lived and the market soon began speculating Portugal as the next country following Ireland to seek help from EU/IMF. Look at bond markets, yield spreads between peripheral European bonds and German bunds continued to widen. While Greek and Irish spreads were the widest, Spanish and Italian spreads accelerated and reached record highs. A similar picture was seen in CDS spreads and we find it particularly interesting that Italian and Belgium spreads were widening fast.
In Asia, China reported the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) expanded to 55.2 in November from 54.7 a month ago. This is the strongest reading in 7 months and signaled the country's manufacturing activities have been growing robustly despite the government measures. Asian shares fluctuated after the report. While investors were encouraged by the strong growth, it also fueled tightening concerns as the government may accelerate measures to control inflation.
Gauges for manufacturing activities will also be released in Europe and the US later. In the US, ISM manufacturing index probably eased to 56.5 in November from 56.9 a month ago. We will also get some employment data in the NY session. ADP will probably report +65K addition of payrolls last month while Challenger's estimates for job cuts may have been lowered from 31.8% in October.
We will also get EIA's weekly oil inventory report. The market forecasts crude and distillate inventories fell while gasoline stockpiles gained in the week ended November 26. The industry-sponsored API estimated crude inventory drew -1.4 mmb while both gasoline and distillate recorded stock builds.
Let's Look at The Charts....5 Year Sovereign CDS Spread and 10 Year Yield Spreads
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Commodity Corner: Crude Oil Tumbles on Lingering Debt Concerns
Fear lingers as investors worry that other countries, such as Spain, Portugal, or Italy, might also need financial assistance after Ireland’s massive bailout package earlier this week. The euro lost 0.9 percent Tuesday, hitting a two month low against the dollar. The greenback rose 0.5 percent on the U.S. dollar index, which gauges the dollar to an array of six other currencies. As the dollar strengthens, crude becomes more expensive for foreign buyers and dollar denominated commodities lose their appeal.
Natural gas futures also tumbled Tuesday, as stockpiles exceeded expectations of an increase in heating demand due to the forecasted colder than normal temperatures. Although natural gas prices typically correlate with heating demand in the winter, analysts predict that the surplus in supplies has limited rallies; however, they remain uncertain about long term predictions. January Natural gas traded lower for the second consecutive session at $4.18 per thousand cubic feet. It peaked at $4.25 and bottomed out at $4.13 Tuesday.
Posted courtesy of Rigzone.Com
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Sharon Epperson: Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Wednesday?
CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil and gold are likely headed Friday.
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Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Tuesday Evening Nov. 30th
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ConocoPhillips Is Cheaper Than Rivals but Has Plenty to Prove
Oil prices are creeping back up, mirroring the expanding (if still sickly) global economy, and so one wonders: which major oil company to buy?
Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) are well managed, diversified and trading at bargain prices, according to YCharts Pro Ratings. But ConocoPhillips (COP), which lags behind its bigger rivals, is by some measures even cheaper. All the company has to do is make good on its many promises, which, of course, is easier said than done.
On a price to sales basis, ConocoPhillips looks like a steal. Its p/e ratio is also super low. And if you’re making comparisons to bond yields, ConocoPhillips’ earnings yield puts most junk bonds to shame. All that disrespect by investors means ConocoPhillips’ dividend yield is pretty rich, too. Why so cheap? Well, ConocoPhillips carries a higher debt load than its bigger rivals. And it holds less cash, though recent sales of LUKOIL shares have fattened the cash account.
And even though the company is eight years into the merger of Conoco and Phillips, there are signs it’s still working to get its act together. CEO James J. Mulva, though he’s nearing age 65, swept much of top management out the door in early October, bringing in some outside talent. And Mulva is pushing a financial strategy, reduced capital expenditures, debt reduction, rising buybacks and dividends, that seems like the right idea, but perhaps a little late in arriving.
ConocoPhillips has more oil and gas properties around the world than it can reasonably develop, so it is selling some to raise cash and pay down debt. Super, though the assets might have fetched more when oil prices were sky high a few years back. And like all major oil companies, ConocoPhillips faces the daunting task of replacing the oil and gas it pumps and sells each year, a task that is growing ever riskier and more expensive.
So, when oil prices surge, and they will, you might get a little extra bounce with shares of unloved ConocoPhillips, though Exxon and Chevron will certainly rise, as well. Warren Buffett bought ConocoPhillips in the low $70s, so you can buy it more cheaply. The Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) CEO overpaid because oil prices soon fell. But relative to other major oil companies, did he see a bargain?
Here's the Y charts showing the comparison to Exxon and Chevron
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Crude Oil Retreats amid Rate Hike Concerns in China
The market focus has once again turned to China. Zhong Jiyin, an economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences wrote in China Daily that the country needs to raise interest rates by another 200 bps to curb inflation, given existing excess liquidity. Although the government has implemented a series of measures, including increasing RRR and raising margins for certain commodity futures, the impacts on inflation are not significant and CPI rose to 4.4% y/y in October, The market has been speculating that a rate hike can come over the next few weeks. According to Zhong, raising RRR may help ease the situation but is 'not enough to reverse it. The increase in the required reserve ratios for banks can prevent the rise of excess liquidity and ensure that the situation does not deteriorate further'. It will 'do little to get rid of the existing excess liquidity. Increasing interest rates is a common measure taken to check inflation'.
In Europe, it's obvious that the bailout for Ireland failed to stem contagion. The market currently expects the EU will need to rescue more peripheral European countries with Portugal being the one after Ireland. Indeed, apart from Portugal, CDS spreads and yield spreads between Spanish/Italian bonds and German bunds have continued to soar. According to Bloomberg news, Spain's banks may struggle to refinance about 85B euro in debt in 2011 and this may trigger the country to seek a bailout from EU/IMF.
China' rate hike and European sovereign concerns have dominated the headlines, overshadowing macroeconomic data. Germany's unemployment fell -9K to 3.14M, the lowest level since December 1992, in November. Unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 7.5%. We will have housing, manufacturing and confidence data in the NY session. Growth in S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20 index may have eased to +1% in September. Chicago Fed will report its manufacturing PMI which probably dipped -0.7 to 59.9 in November. Consumer Confidence is expected to have improved to 52.7 in November from 50.2 in the prior month.
Posted courtesy of Oil N'Gold
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New Video: Where is Gold Headed and How Can You Prepare?
The gold market has been pushing out its normal level of frustration and anxiety for the past several weeks.
So the question becomes, is the gold market pausing to move higher, and of course the Bulls would argue this, or is it forming the head and shoulders top that many technicians are looking for? Of course, this would be a bearish sign for gold if this technical formation is completed.
We've just finished a short video that shows you what we're looking at right now in gold and how I think it is going to be resolved. The video is a little over 2 minutes. It's quick and to the point while supplying you with what you need to take your place in or out of this market.
Just Click Here to Watch today's video "Where is Gold Headed and How Can You Prepare?"
You may also wish to attend our gold webinar which we are holding on the 2nd of December at 4 PM EST. The webinar is free of charge, but you need to register in order to attend. This is no hype, but we have limited space and it will be on a first come first served basis. The important thing is that you register as soon as possible.
Here is the link to register for the webinar
While you do need to register to attend our gold webinar, in order to watch today's short video no registration is required nor is there any charge.
We hope to see you at this week's Gold webinar so don't forget to register.
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So the question becomes, is the gold market pausing to move higher, and of course the Bulls would argue this, or is it forming the head and shoulders top that many technicians are looking for? Of course, this would be a bearish sign for gold if this technical formation is completed.
We've just finished a short video that shows you what we're looking at right now in gold and how I think it is going to be resolved. The video is a little over 2 minutes. It's quick and to the point while supplying you with what you need to take your place in or out of this market.
Just Click Here to Watch today's video "Where is Gold Headed and How Can You Prepare?"
You may also wish to attend our gold webinar which we are holding on the 2nd of December at 4 PM EST. The webinar is free of charge, but you need to register in order to attend. This is no hype, but we have limited space and it will be on a first come first served basis. The important thing is that you register as soon as possible.
Here is the link to register for the webinar
While you do need to register to attend our gold webinar, in order to watch today's short video no registration is required nor is there any charge.
We hope to see you at this week's Gold webinar so don't forget to register.
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Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Market Commentary For Monday Morning Nov. 30th
If January extends the rally off last week's low, November's high crossing at 89.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.00 would temper the near term friendly outlook.
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 85.90
Second resistance is November's high crossing at 89.10
Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 85.07
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.00
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 80.28
First resistance is last week's high crossing at 4.515.
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.654.
Natural gas pivot point for Tuesday is 4.288
First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.166.
Second support is November's low crossing at 3.853.
If December extends the rebound off the mid-November low, the reaction high crossing at 1388.10 is the next upside target. If December renews this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1315.60 is the next downside target.
First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 1382.90
Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1424.30
Gold pivot point for Tuesday morning is 1,362.60
First support is the 25% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1330.20
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1315.60
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Monday, November 29, 2010
Commodity Corner: Crude Oil Begins Week Much Higher
Oil traded within a range from $83.59 to $85.54. Gasoline, meanwhile, peaked at $2.29 and bottomed out at $2.21. Despite a chillier than normal forecast for the Northeast, January natural gas fell 19 cents to settle at $4.21 per thousand cubic feet. The natural gas futures price fluctuated from $4.17 to $4.49.
Posted courtesy of Rigzone.Com
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Matt Nesto: Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Tuesday?
CNBC's Matt Nesto discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks at where oil and gold are likely headed tomorrow.
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Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Monday Evening Nov. 29th
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Crude Oil Prices Rise to Two Week High on U.S. Retail Sales, Irish Bailout
“People are looking at a pretty decent retail environment, and that’s giving oil a boost,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. “Cold weather is more bullish earlier in the season than later. If people turn on their heaters early and they stay on, that’s good for the season.” Oil for January delivery climbed $1.97, or 2.4 percent, to $85.73 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since Nov. 11. Futures have gained 13 percent in the past year.
Brent crude for January settlement rose $1.76, or 2.1 percent, to $87.34 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London. About 212 million shoppers went to stores and websites over the holiday weekend in the U.S., on average spending $365.34, the Washington based National Retail Federation reported. Temperatures in the eastern half of the U.S. will be below normal from Dec. 7 to Dec. 13, according to a forecast issued today by the U.S. Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland......Read the entire article.
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Gold's Trading Range
Jeff Friedman, senior market strategist at Lind-Waldock reveals why he thinks gold prices will reach for $1,380 an ounce.
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