It Looks Like Gold’s Cyclical 34 Month Run is About to Run Out

David Banister of  The Market Trend Forecast just updated his previous gold forecast which was spot on (no pun intended).....Now he has a new forecast for what to expect next which I'm sure all of our readers will find interesting......

Gold hit $1805 tonight in trading, a Fibonacci Fractal figure I gave out a few weeks ago as a possible top. We are close to a near term high in Gold and Investors should be trimming back positions on this run. Back as recently as $1600 an ounce I forecasted a run to $1805 for Gold using fractal and wave analysis and behavioral patterns, now that we hit that figure it’s time to update the cycle and where we are.

Here is the Chart I did at 1599 gold on July 22nd:

I have been a Gold Bull since November 2001, having conducted seminars for public employees on investing back then and advising gold mutual funds and gold stocks very early. I have talked in the past about a 13 fibonacci year Gold Bull cycle that will end around 2014, so there are still three years left in my opinion. However, gold does have peaks and valleys and has moved in very clear Wave and Fibonacci fractal patterns for years.

Given the history of how I have forecasted Gold, I am going to share my short term and moderately long term views on where we are in the up cycle which I expect to last 13 fibonacci years to 2014. Right now it is my opinion that we are completing a MAJOR WAVE 3 up in Gold from the 2001 lows from $300 an ounce. We have had a 34 fibonacci month rally since the October 2008 lows of $681 per ounce. Every Taxi driver, CNBC guest or analyst, and 200 Radio and TV commercials a day are blaring to buy Gold. This is how intermediate tops form.

The rough wave count is below:
Wave 1- 300 to 1030
Wave 2- 1030 to 681 (October 2008 lows)
Wave 3- 618- 1805 currently, 34 Fibonacci month cycle. *Likely high is 1862-1900*
Wave 4- Due up next… a multi month consolidation.

It is my opinion that at the top of a Major wave 3 in Gold, that everyone should be univerally bullish, that gold radio and TV commercials would be all over the place, and that everyone on CNBC would be talking about and recommending Gold.

Sound familiar?

So the likely conclusion to this massive parabolic blow off top of Wave 3 is nigh. Most recently I upped my estimates to as high as $1900 per ounce with $1805 already here as of tonight, which was one of my figures by the way many weeks ago. Gold should under normal circumstances top between 1862 and 1900 per ounce fairly soon should the 1805 level not hold as a high. At that level we will be dramatically overbought. 

We are already running 15.7% above the 20 week moving average line which historically is about as high as Gold will get before correcting hard and consolidating. A final lift to the 1862-1900 ranges should lead to a fairly good sized correction to the downside designed to kick all the late comer Taxi Cab driving buyers off the bull’s back. With that said, at $1805 I would be trimming my position and or hedging my long positions aggressively.

Watch for a Maximum Gold top at 1862 -1900 per ounce and keep in mind 1805 is being hit tonight and that is a qualifying fibonacci fractal top as well. Investors should be trimming back positions and looking to re-deploy back into Gold at better prices. We could get a huge blow off top over 1900, but it would be very very rare if it happens.

If you’d like to stay ahead of the peaks and valleys in Gold, Silver, and the SP 500 (Recently called a tradable bottom at 1101), then check out Market Trend Forecast for a 33% 48 hour coupon or sign up for the occasional but infrequent free updates.

Ken Salazar in Alaska....President Obama Backs Additional Oil Drilling in Alaska

Interior Secretary Ken Salazar came to Anchorage on Monday and said the Obama administration supports more oil drilling in Alaska, potentially including offshore Arctic development.

Salazar joined Alaska Sen. Mark Begich and Rhode Island Sen. Jack Reed, both Democrats, for a meeting with Alaska businesspeople and said the president's feeling toward Arctic offshore drilling is "Let's take a look at what's up there and see what it is we can develop." But any Arctic oil development must be done carefully, he said. Salazar said the Arctic lacks needed infrastructure for responding to potential offshore oil spills and cited painful lessons from the Deepwater Horizon spill in the Gulf of Mexico last year.

"Not the mightiest companies with multibillion dollar pockets were able to do what needed to be done in a timely basis, and the representations of preparation simply turned out not to be true from the oil companies that had a legal obligation to shut down that kind of an oil spill. ...

When you look at the Arctic itself, we recognize that there are different realities - the ocean is a much shallower ocean, conditions are very different than we had in the Gulf of Mexico. (But) there are challenges that are unique to the Arctic," Salazar told Alaska reporters......Read the entire article.

Adam Hewison: An Extraordinary Admission Of Failure!

Yesterday, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, acknowledged in what was perhaps the most stunning statement ever by a sitting chairman of the Fed…. That the economy was not doing as well as they had predicted.

Duh Ben, welcome to the real world!

In our comments yesterday before the chairman spoke, we hoped that the Fed wouldn’t do anything stupid like announce QE3 or that they will be dropping money from helicopters. Instead, the United States has just played its cards out to the world, saying that we are not going to be raising interest rates until………let me guess 2013, after the elections.

What the chairman’s statement really meant to many traders, myself included, is that the U.S. economy is not even halfway good. It is in the toilet! The Fed also stated in a very subtle way, that there is not going to be another huge bailout for the economy. That can only mean one thing in my mind, and that is the equity markets are going to continue to erode for the balance of 2011 and for most of 2012.

I suspect that we have seen a minor bottom in the equity markets as they have churned back and forth trying to stabilize after there disastrous losses in the past 12 days.

Everyone is euphoric about the price of crude oil coming down, but I suspect this is just going to be a correction in what will be a bull market when inflation kicks in. Other commodity markets are, in my opinion, getting closer and closer to making a bottom. I would pay particular attention to the Reuters/Jefferies CRB commodity index that we talk about every day on this blog.

Here’s what I think is going to happen in the next few days: I think we will see more choppy, irrational and erratic market behavior that will rule the day. I think that investors who haven’t been using a structured approach, like our “Trade Triangle” technology, are going to be scared to death at what is happening to their investment and will find them selves without a rudder in these tumultuous financial seas. Only by having a game plan in place, can you survive what I believe is going to happen in the future.

In a nutshell, the balance of 2011 and 2012, will be more about capital preservation and less about growth. The good news is, with our “Trade Triangle” technology we will continue to find winning trades and you will come out ahead of the game.

So let’s go to the 6 major markets we track every day and see how we can create and maintain your wealth in 2011.

S&P 500

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 90

Chances are we reached an interim low point yesterday. The Fibonacci retracement zone has been satisfied and this market is in a heavily oversold condition. Continue to see choppy action overall for this index.

SILVER 

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 60

Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines and out of silver at the present time. Our -60 Chart Analysis Score indicates more two way market and a trading range.

GOLD 

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100

Short term, intermediate-term, and long-term traders should all remain long gold. We would use our Trade Triangles for exit points should they give signals. Is $1800 the next stop for gold.

CRUDE OIL 

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 100

Yesterday the crude oil market looked like we have put in the bottom in this market for the time being. We would not be surprised to see further two way action and a further reflex rally.

DOLLAR INDEX

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 60

The dollar index continues to remain in a broad trading range. The index remains below its 200 day moving average while our longer term Trade Triangle remains positive.

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Ray Carbone: Oil Correction Will Be Severe, But Short Lived

This weeks move in crude oil was severe, but Ray Carbone, President of Paramount Options believes the rally will eventually resume.




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Rigzone: Crude Oil Slips Below $80

Crude oil futures extended losses Tuesday after the Federal Reserve said risks to the economic outlook have increased. Light, sweet crude continued to retreat on the New York Mercantile Exchange Tuesday settling at $79.30 a barrel, down $2.01. For the first time in nearly 10 months, crude prices settled below $80 a barrel.


The Fed failed to ease fears as Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues promised to extend the benchmark interest rate for another two years but stopped short of initiating an additional round of economic stimulus.


In separate monthly reports, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and OPEC cut demand forecasts for 2011. The EIA cut its 2011 world demand growth forecast by 60,000 barrels per day (bpd). It raised its 2012 projections to 1.64 MMbpd. Meanwhile, OPEC cut oil demand growth for this year by 150,000 bpd and 20,000 bpd for next year. The intraday range for crude was $75.71 to $83.05 a barrel.


At its lowest close since Feb. 18, Brent futures lost $1.17 to end Tuesday's trading session at $102.57 a barrel. Prices traded as low as $99.06 and as high as $105.81 Tuesday. Gasoline for September delivery settled 2.4 cents lower at $2.67 a gallon Tuesday. The EIA reported a 2 percent decline in gasoline demand over the summer driving season, pushing prices as low as $2.59. The intraday high for gasoline was $2.76.


Conversely, natural gas futures gained 5.9 cents, or 1.5 percent, settling at $3.99 per thousand cubic feet. Natural gas futures pushed past the $4 mark Tuesday, peaking at $4.04 and bottoming out just below $3.89. High temperatures continue to support gains.


Posted Courtesy of Rigzone.Com




Today’s Trading Triangles

What is Next For The SP 500?

Three weeks ago he began urging members of his service to reduce risk and raise cash. He pounded the table incessantly for the past two weeks to continue to raise cash and reduce risk. He has not issued a trade alert to members in over 3 weeks, but by acknowledging risk ahead of the debt ceiling debate he was able to sidestep one of the worst weeks in U.S. financial markets since 2008.

Here's what else J.W. Jones saying about the potential bottom in these markets........

Armed with cash and my emotional capital intact, I am going to be able to take advantage of price action in coming days and weeks. I am expecting a bounce in the near term, but the downgrade of U.S. debt on Friday by the S&P rating agency could have a dramatic impact at the open on Monday morning. I intend to remain in cash until the news is digested by the marketplace.

My first public warnings about a potential top came back on July 8 when I posited an article which illustrated the bullish and bearish position of the market at that time ahead of the debt ceiling debate in Washington. The following excerpt and chart was taken directly from that article:

“In addition to the short term overbought nature of the S&P 500, the daily and weekly charts clearly illustrate a head and shoulders pattern. The head and shoulders pattern is a typical characteristic of a topping formation that is often found at several major historical tops. The daily chart below illustrates the head and shoulders pattern: 




This particular head and shoulders pattern is not getting a lot of recognition in the media which lends it a bit more credence. If we start hearing about this pattern on CNBC or FOX Business I will expect the pattern to fail. Call me a contrarian, but in the past when major television personalities are constantly talking about chart patterns they almost always fail.


Besides just technical data points, continued worries stemming from the European sovereign debt crisis helps the bear’s case further. In the event of a major default in the Eurozone, the implications to the financial sector of the U.S. economy will come into focus. It is widely expected that a banking crisis in Europe could spread to some degree to the large money center banks in the United States. Clearly this would have negative implications on price action in domestic equity markets.

In addition to the European debt crisis, the United States government has a looming credit crisis of its own. With politicians currently arguing over whether to raise the debt ceiling, bears point out that if the United States defaulted on its debt (unlikely) the implications would be severe. However, many traders and economists point out that the end of QE II may have dramatic implications on price action as well. The current uncertainty around the world lends itself in favor of the bears.”


Clearly the head and shoulders pattern has played out and barring a breakout over the 2011 highs on the S&P 500, an intermediate to long term top has been carved out. In fact, I believe we are likely entering the next phase of the ongoing bear market that started back in 2000.

Panic level selling pressure has been registered and the S&P 500 is in an extremely oversold condition as is evident by the charts below:
Stocks Above 50 Period Moving Average



Stocks Above 200 Period Moving Average

The charts above illustrate that we are extremely oversold in the intermediate term time frame and that we are nearing extreme oversold conditions in the longer term time frame as well. I am expecting a bottom to form in the next few weeks which should offer outstanding risk / reward long entries for short to intermediate term trades.

Another indicator that is showing some extreme fear in the marketplace is the Volatility Index (VIX). The VIX has traded in a choppy pattern for quite some time before finally pushing higher the past few weeks.

The daily chart of the VIX below demonstrates the fear in the marketplace:



Almost every indicator that I monitor is screaming that the current market is extremely oversold and fear levels are running at or near 2011 highs. When the masses are fearful and the S&P 500 is this oversold, I want to be looking for opportunities to get long risk assets.
While consistently picking bottoms is nearly impossible, there are a few key levels on the S&P 500 that I’m going to be monitoring.

The weekly chart below illustrates the key support levels which could hold up prices and also future targets for the likely reflex rally:



Once a bottom has been carved out, the use of Fibonacci Retracement and/or Extension analysis will help me determine more precise resistance levels. We could see further selling pressure this week before we see a pronounced bottom carved out. With volatility at these levels price action will be pretty wild. I intend to use smaller position sizes with wider stops to start layering into exposure as opportunities present themselves.

By sitting on the sidelines during this downside move, members of my service are ready to take advantage of lower prices to get long. Now the interesting part will be how Mr. Market handles the downgrade of U.S. debt on Monday ........


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What a Weekend....The United States Has Been Marked Down!

What a weekend!! S&P marks America down to to AA+. That bombshell comes on top of everything else that is happening like the markets crashing and Italy imploding. But you know what, it is also a time of great opportunity if you follow our Trade Triangle technology.

Let’s see how the markets performed last week. Out of the six markets we track every trading day, four markets were in negative territory for the week. The two markets that did not end up in the minus column were gold up 2.25% and the dollar index which was up 1.06%

The percentage loser for the week was crude oil which lost a massive 9.21% and is now officially in a bear trend according to our Trade Triangle technology. The S&P500 was close behind with another negative week which saw this index shed 7.18%.

Let’s take a look at the charts, because unlike politicians, pundits and gurus, they tell you what is really going on in the world.

So here’s what happened last week in the major markets....

S&P500: change for the week: -7.18%
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 100

Silver: change for the week: -3.38%
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 65

Gold: change for the week: +2.25%
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100

Crude Oil: change for the week: -9.21%
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 90

$ Index: change for the week: +1.06%
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 65

CRB Index: change for the week: – 4.46%
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 90

Great Video: How to Spot Winning Trades

Adam Hewison: Welcome to the Bear Market

From Crude Oil Trader contributor Adam Hewison.....

Ladies and gentlemen, the market action yesterday was real. Please be aware that we have started on a bear market. As we have pointed out in our previous updates, we were looking for a move to the downside. That has now happened with all our indicators firmly in negative mode.

Most folks who are not in their 60s do not remember the bear markets of the 70s and 80s which caused a tremendous amount of pain for investors. It seems as though we just kicked the can down the road for the last time. The markets are bringing common sense back and they will find a solution for the economy.

President Obama came on the TV today to reassure everyone that it was not his fault that the stock market was down, it had to do with Europe, the tsunami in Japan. Mr. President we are and have been in a global economy for years. It’s too bad that Ben Bernanke and you don’t understand that.

Folks who saw their 401(k) and IRA retirement accounts decimated in 2008 are having a déjà vu moment. In the last 10 days the S&P 500 has lost over $1 trillion and we expect it will lose more. A simple solution to get America running again is to cut corporate taxes to 25%. Money will pour in, corporations will start hiring again and start building business. Corporations are the ones that create business and pay taxes in this country. It’s not the government that pays taxes.

So, President Obama will you please help give businesses the environment to thrive in, less regulation, less taxation? This is the only way for the country to get out of this recession.
The key element which is overriding everything right now is the current market psyche....Scared.

Last night every TV and cable show’s lead story was the market crash. If the market closes lower today, everybody will be frantic and worried about their investments over the weekend which means we’ll probably see a continuation early next week to the downside.

The equity markets are getting close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1148 for the S&P 500 index. We expect that this level will be reached. We would expect to see some profit taking at that area and a modest retracement back to the upside. That is not to say we are bullish, it just means we going to see some profit taking coming into this market.

I would like to thank everybody for their positive feedback! We are thankful we can help you muddle through this extremely volatile time in the markets.

So let’s go to the 6 major markets we track every day and see how we can create and maintain your wealth in 2011.

S&P 500

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 100
Watch Video for update.

SILVER (SPOT)

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 55
Watch Video for update.

GOLD (SPOT)

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 90
Watch Video for update.

CRUDE OIL (SEPTEMBER)

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 100
Watch Video for update.

DOLLAR INDEX

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 65
Watch Video for update.

REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 100

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Musings: Gas Shale Debate May Be Moving to Next Higher Stage

For the past 18-24 months, the debate about the economic performance of the gas shale revolution has been ongoing deep in the industry's trenches. Questions were originally raised by geologist Art Berman about the performance of natural gas shale wells writing in a column in an industry trade magazine, World Oil. The columns bothered certain managements of producers who were totally committed to gas shale developments.

As additional critical columns appeared using acceptable industry data analysis of the results of producing gas shale wells, these unhappy producers voiced their criticism to the publisher of World Oil. The pressure on Mr. Berman to drop the topic increased to the point that he elected to stop writing his column. World Oil's editor also left due to the pressure on Mr. Berman.

In late June, The New York Times published an article based on a number of emails between industry, government and investment professions discussing the latest gas shale data. Those exchanges focused on whether there might be a risk that the abundant volumes of natural gas trapped in the shales would not be developed because the cost of extracting them was actually far in excess of the current or even near term future gas price and that producers were misleading investors about gas shale economics.

If E&P companies were attracting the necessary investor funds to finance their gas shale developments predicated on assumptions that later proved overly optimistic, substantial financial losses could be experienced. Many of the participants in the email chains were long time students of the E&P industry and are aware of the history of producers destroying capital through poor management decisions......Read the entire article.



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This is Not Working Mr. President

Well, we are a couple of percentage points lower today in the equity markets and unfortunately your administration points the finger at the tsunami in Japan and other external issues that are stifling the economy. It is always someone else’s fault and not your administration.

It doesn’t matter if you are a Republican or a Democrat, this is YOUR economy and YOUR administration has to accept responsibility for it. You have spent trillions of tax payer’s money on unneeded and unwanted legislation, and it is never going to help the country or create jobs.

You came into office on “Hope and Change”....America got neither.

Do you really want to help the country and ensure your reelection? I think you should turn over the billion dollars you are amassing for your reelection campaign to the treasury. I would see that as a very positive gesture and it would likely get you reelected.

You were recommended to lower the corporate tax rate from 34% down to about 27%, earlier in you administration. What happened to that idea? That would mean that millions of small companies could hire more people, plan more and do more. The program was rapidly shelved because it didn’t help everybody. Mr. President corporations employ people. Corporations pay taxes. Corporations and the lack of government regulations and interference are what made America run and be a great country.

I think you’re probably a very smart man and you should recognize it’s time to change course on this spend, spend, spend attitude. You wouldn’t do it with your own checkbook, but it seems to be okay to borrow more money and spend more money for the country under the guise that it’s all going to work out.

Mr. President, it is not working out.

It’s about 16 months before the election and one promise I will make… If there are no radical changes in your policies, with unemployment at 9.2% officially and unofficially closer to 16%, then your chances of getting reelected are going to be ZERO.

P.S. Please don’t come on TV again to tell us your latest plan as it will probably send the markets further into a tailspin.

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How To Spot Winning Futures....Watch Video NOW

Set The Emotion Aside, Here is a Technicians View of VIX, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and the SP 500

So did Crude Oil Trader contributor J.W. Jones get whacked by the sell off.......

The following article is an update on the current technical position of the marketplace as I see it. Obviously the price action this week has been ugly as the situation in Europe has become front and center in the minds of traders and market prognosticators. The information below is an adaptation of what members of my service at Options Trading Signals.com received earlier today.

The S&P 500 sold off sharply earlier this morning and has since bounced higher. Price is drifting lower as I write this but on the shorter term time frame we may see a short / intermediate term bottom traced out during intraday trade today. It would make sense that prices would rebound after being so extremely oversold.

The 10 minute chart of the S&P 500 E-Mini futures chart below illustrates the intraday price action:

If the S&P 500 does carve out an intraday bottom, the daily chart of the S&P 500 below illustrates the key price levels that will come into play on a potential reflex rally:

The VIX is trading lower after popping higher this morning. The data coming out tomorrow and Friday may give traders an opportunity to get involved with a short side try on the VIX. However, I am going to wait patiently for the setup to present itself. Clearly any trade would be a shorter term type of trade as the VIX can behave wildly.

The usual suspects (IYT, XLF, EEM, IWM) are all trading to the downside again today. The financials (XLF) are showing relative weakness at this point in time. The rest of the usual suspects are all rolling over quite similarly to the S&P 500.

The daily chart of the XLF is shown below:

The U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading lower today and continue to base right at a key support level. If price breaks down we could see risk assets like the S&P 500 and oil push higher. For right now, the Dollar is trading well above key support.

Gold futures sold off sharply this morning but have since regained most of the intraday losses and are trading strongly to the upside from Tuesday’s close. Gold is starting to get a bit stretched to the upside and I am stalking a potential short trade on gold for the service. It would only be a short term trade, but I think a pullback is likely.

Silver futures have broken out and intraday price action has pushed silver above recent resistance levels. I’m not going to chase silver here as it could be the beginning of a failed breakout. However, if prices continue higher in coming days or price consolidates at this breakout level I will become interested in taking silver long.

For now, the precious metals are intriguing, but I like the price action in silver better than gold as we have more crisply defined risk levels as gold has runaway to all time highs.

The silver futures daily chart illustrates the key levels in silver:

Oil futures are trading sharply lower today and are coming into a key support level going back to late June. If those prices do not hold up, we could see oil trade down below the key $90/barrel price level. At this point in time, I am not interested in trading oil, but if price works down into the $85/barrel price level I will be interested in oil as a longer term trade for the service.

Lastly, Treasuries are really pushing higher recently. I am patiently stalking a long term entry on TBT for the service similar to the oil trade discussed above. For right now, I’m going to remain in cash and see how price action plays out. Members of my service have been sitting in cash for the past few weeks and we have sidestepped this entire selloff. While I’m sitting in cash for now, I have a growing list of names I am stalking for trades in the future.

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Rigzone: Crude Oil Drops 1.2% on Economic Worries

Crude oil futures continued to retreat Tuesday as economic concerns weighed on the market. At its lowest in more than a month, light, sweet crude settled lower at $93.79 a barrel, down $1.10 from yesterday. Tuesday's trading session reached lows last seen on June 28.

Early Tuesday, a U.S. Commerce Department report showing a drop in consumer spending for the first time in nearly two years weighed down oil prices. The report also showed that incomes barely rose for the month of June. Analysts believe that the series of negative economic data is overshadowing the U.S. deficit-cutting package.

The Brent contract traded between $115.77 and $118.36, before settling at $116.46 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London. The 35 cent day on day drop came on supply disruptions in the North Sea and a refinery fire in Taiwan.

Futures for September natural gas decreased 3.3 cents Tuesday, closing at $4.155 per thousand cubic feet. According to the National Hurricane Center, the Caribbean's latest storm Tropical Storm Emily could pick up strength in a day or two; but, as of now, the storm poses a low threat to the Gulf's output. Approximately 7.4 percent of the U.S. natural-gas production lies in the Gulf of Mexico.

Natural gas prices fluctuated between $4.135 and $4.23, maintaining a similar trading range to Monday's session. Gasoline blendstock for September delivery dropped for a fifth consecutive session, closing at $3.04 a gallon.

Posted Courtesy of Rigzone.Com

Gold and the QE3 Ship – Are Both About to Sail?

From Gold ETF Trader contributor David Banister at Market Trend Forecast.....

Back in Mid-May of this year we had a big rally in the Dollar and Gold was correcting hard. There was a bit of Dollar Bull hysteria at the time which I felt was quite unfounded. I wrote an article entitled, “The Dollar Bull Monkey Dance Will Soon End Badly, QE3 Next?” You see, the collective herd psychology at that time, just a short ten weeks ago, was that Gold would drop hard at the end of QE2, and The Dollar would of course rally as high as 82, maybe more against the weighted index.

The dollar has dropped hard since mid-May as I expected and Gold has continued to rally as well. I had forecasted $1627 for Gold back when we were under $1,500 and last Friday we closed at $1627 on the nose! During the mid May time, most disagreed with my QE3 forecast, and probably still do but I think the ships is soon leaving port. This could blast Gold up to a target of $1805 on the high end and certainly into the low 1700’s to the $1730 per ounce range.

Gold has had a powerful 5 wave rally (Elliott Wave Theory) since the October 2008 lows of $681 per ounce, and certainly one could argue that a correction would make sense fairly soon. However, the fundamentals for Gold are only getting stronger as we have inflation climbing at an 8-9% real rate and interest rates continuing to drop. This is creating a “negative” real interest rate environment amidst a continuing weaker US dollar. Hence it is hard fundamentally to argue against Gold at this time, creating difficulty in forecasting the intermediate highs and lows.

With that said, assuming QE3 or some form takes place soon then my $1805 target is quite likely to be hit before we can look for any meaningful correction in the precious metal complex. With the ISM manufacturing index turning down sharply as reported this morning and other economic indicators and GDP report rolling over, a QE3 ship horn is likely to sound soon. Below is my latest chart dated July 22nd with Gold at $1599 at the time, outlining the likely interim moves in Gold using my crowd behavioral methodology that I employ at my forecasting service.

The combination of crowd behavior and fundamental analysis often delivers stunningly accurate forecasts in advance on the SP 500, Gold and Silver at TMTF. Consider signing up for our regular updates and use our 72 hour coupon code at Market Trend Forecast

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Just Three More Days To The Debt Deadline and What is Warren Buffetts Solution?

Just three more days to the debt deadline. I’m guessing that it is an artificial deadline made up for political reasons. I am positive that this is just an arbitrary date that some policy wonk came up with to get everyone up in arms about doing something with the debt.

I believe Warren Buffett had the best idea on how to end our debt problems. Here is what Warren had to say: “I could end the deficit in five minutes. You just pass a law that says that anytime there is a deficit of more than 3% of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for re-election.” Way to go Warren!!!

Well, we have made it to the last day of the trading week and the last day of the trading month. The equity markets are, as of this writing, sharply lower for the week and also the month. Gold and Silver on the other hand, are sharply higher for the week and the month.

As we have been indicating, we felt the equity markets were rolling over to the downside. Technically we are getting closer to pulling the trigger on our major monthly Trade Triangle which sets the trend for the equity markets.

Now let’s take a look at what the markets are telling us and the direction they’re taking on this last trading day of the month.

S&P 500

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 70
Looking at the monthly S&P 500 index chart, a close around current levels would be the lowest close we’ve seen in this index for the past 6 months. The monthly PSAR comes in at 1256. As we have stated many times before, this is a line in the sand level that if broken would indicate further downside action.

SILVER (SPOT)

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 85
Silver is closing out the month with a gain of over 15%. The action continues to be positive and we expect this market to trade to the $43 level basis the spot market.

GOLD (SPOT)

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100
In July, gold moved up over 8% and in doing so hit new all-time highs against the US dollar. The trend remains positive with all of our Trade Triangles positive and we have an intermediate target zone between $1640 and $1650.

CRUDE OIL (SEPTEMBER)

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 75
For the month of July, crude oil closed essentially unchanged. We still feel that this market is building an energy field to move higher. We want to closely watch this market in the coming days and weeks and look for a turn to the upside.

DOLLAR INDEX

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 55
The dollar index was essentially flat during the month of July with a loss of 0.62%. For the last four months, this index has been moving sideways unable to break out of its trading range. Eventually you will see this change and a stronger trend developing.

REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 75

One of the reasons we eye this particular index so carefully and closely is because it is the indicator of inflation and deflation. In the month of July, this index closed up over 1%. The 350 level is the key level down to watch on the upside.

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Weekend Wrap Video....Calendar Count Down to Debt Ceiling Decision

Adams weekend trading update for the week ending on 7/22/11......

The percentage winner for the week was crude oil which moved up 2.32% and is on the verge of breaking out on the upside. The markets continue to wait and wonder as to what is going to happen with the debt ceiling talks.

It would seem like neither the democrats or the republicans give a hoot about the country, all they seem to be interested in is political gamesmanship and preserving their own power. We are as of today’s taping no closer to getting a debt ceiling deal in place than we were a week ago. UGH!!!

Europe is still in a quandary even though the politicians are trying to save face and save the no win situation in Greece. Imagine the first bailout to Greece didn’t work, so now we are going to loan Greece even more money to pay back. Does that make any sense to anyone?

Its like Greece belongs to this exclusive country club and can’t afford to pay it’s monthly tab or membership fees. Well, guess what, in the real world, i.e. the private sector, Greece would be kicked out of the club, end of story. However, in the world of political make believe and Kabuki theater, we’ll just loan you more of the tax payers money to pay for your dues. Sorry, I forgot it’s Europe’s turn to “Kick The Can Down The Road”.

Let’s take a look at the charts, because unlike politicians, they tell you what is really going on in the world.

So here’s what happened last week in the major markets.....

S&P500 move for the week: +2.19%
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 90

Silver move for the week: +2.00%
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100

Gold move for the week: +.47%
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 90

Oil move for the week: +2.32%
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 60

Dollar Index move for the week: -1.19%
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 75

CRB Index move for the week: +.43%
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 60

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Crowd Behavior Moves Gold, Silver and SP 500…Not The News!

From our partner David Banister at Market Trend Forecast.....

How many times have you scratched your trading head wondering why gold or silver were either rallying hard or dropping hard on seemingly bearish or bullish news? How about the general stock market represented by the SP500 Index? Has it ever rallied when the headlines were horrible or tanked when the news seemed good? Well, welcome to crowd behavioral dynamics and investing!

At my TMTF service, I use Elliott Wave Theory combined with a few other indicators like sentiment gauges and Fibonacci relationships to forecast the coming bottom and top pivots in Gold, Silver, and the SP 500 indexes in advance. In doing so, I often ignore the day’s headlines completely and rarely if ever use them to forecast the next movements in the precious metals or broad stock markets.

Let me give some examples of why you should learn to ignore economic indicators, headlines, and talking heads on CNBC and elsewhere and focus on crowd behavioral patterns. Learning to scale in long when everyone is getting bearish and taking profits when everyone is universally bullish is much easier if you follow Elliott Wave Theory, and apply that theory correctly. If the matter between your ears is unabashedly biased, it will not work… 

One must be objective and open minded to change to survive these volatile markets.

Recently with Gold, we had a major drop from $1557 to $1482 over brief window of time. When I last wrote about Gold several weeks ago publicly, I presented a bullish and a bearish case. I had said Gold must close over $1551, otherwise it may have a truncated top and correct hard. Sure enough, a few days later Gold hit $1557 intra-day and could not get over $1551 on that close. Within days it collapsed and dropped below $1500. How did I know this in advance? Crowd Behavioral Patterns are repeated throughout the markets over and over again and again. Here is the original chart I sent out many weeks ago showing the possible drop:

Gold did end up dropping to the 20 week Exponential moving average at $1480 range, and as it did I noticed a clear “ABC” weekly pattern. Now this is an Elliott Wave pattern that can warn you of an imminent bottom in Gold in this case. In late June, after this major correction I wrote up another chart and showed a potential bottom coming in Gold around 1480, and then on July 5th I confirmed the Bull views on Gold were coming back into play, which you can see with the June 29th chart I did below for my TMTF subscribers:

We were able to adjust our views from short term bearish to moving back to bullish and still catch the big swing in Gold. The precious metal rallied from $1480 ranges to $1610 recently, and now is likely to go through a minor correction to $1568 or so. All of this is the crowd’s action together pushing positions into overbought stages of hysteria, and back to oversold stages of pessimism…I simply track those patterns and try to forecast the next move ahead of the crowd running in or out.

Another sample is Silver as it collapsed from $49 down to $32-$33 per ounce not long ago. After the dust settled I sent out a chart and told my TMTF subs we would likely seeSilver trade in the $34-$41 range for quite a while, before mounting another attack back towards $50. Right now I see Silver soon running to $45-$47 per ounce once it takes a breath. Below is the original early June silver chart I sent to my TMTF subscribers: We had an ABC strong rally which we forecast at TMTF in late August 2010 ahead of time, and once those rallies are over it takes quite a while to work off the sentiment.

Silver has indeed consolidated as forecast for about 7 weeks now between 34-41, having recently hit $40.80 and backed off. I expect Silver to break out over this range soon and attack $60 by year end as possible, but certainly $46-$50 by the fall. Last Wednesday I finally went bullish again based on crowd patterns and told my subs to go long at $37 as you can see below in the chart sent out then with a target of $46 likely coming. The herd of investors had formed yet another ABC weekly pattern, and it was time to go long.

Finally we look at the SP 500 which I forecast on a regular basis as well using Elliott Wave Theory and other indicators. This past week or so we saw a huge drop in the SP 500 and broader markets supposedly on Italy concerns and Eurozone issues. Although I am well aware of these issues, they are used to explain what just happened in the stock market, but not forecast it. Late last week I sent out the chart below to my subscribers and said as long as 1294/95 pivot holds, I remain very bullish on the markets. The SP 500 hit 1295 and has since rallied 31 points in a few days catching everyone off guard. That is Crowd Behavior 101 if I ever saw it!

The bottom line is understanding that the precious metals and broader markets tend to move based on major swings in sentiment from optimistic to pessimistic. The collective psyche of the herd is the most important because we can have periods of very bad news where the market will continue to rally, and also periods of seemingly great news when the market is dropping. The perception of the news of the day and how the crowd decides to react is more important than the news itself! If you’d like to try the TMTF service and take advantage of a coupon as well, go to Market Trend Forecast and check us out. You can also sign up for an occasional but somewhat infrequent free reports.

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Adam Hewison: I Was Thinking This Weekend….

From Crude Oil Trader contributor Adam Hewison.....

Well, Monday is here and we are no closer to solving the debt problem than we were last week. Europe is still a disaster and that’s been reflected in the bank stocks today.

I was thinking this weekend....If everybody moved out of Greece, what would happen to the debt and who would pay it? I know it sounds weird to say, but the reality is with the euro zone you do have the freedom to work in other countries.

The world has changed, yet the politicians still think it’s the same game. In the world of the Internet you can be based practically anywhere that’s advantageous to you. In an example like Greece, which is so far underwater it seems they are never going to be able to bail themselves out....Why not just walk away from the debt? One could stand to reason that most well educated Greeks have the mobility and the language power to move to other countries in the euro zone and work.

Today’s markets reflect what I was saying all last week in regards to the bank stocks which are under tremendous pressure today. BAC is down over 3% and other bank stocks don’t look much better.

Gold and silver moved dramatically high today with gold topping the $1,600 an ounce level before some profit taking came in to the market. Silver is up close to 3% as I write this, and is moving higher and faster than gold percentage wise. So let’s take a look at these markets in more detail and workout some target zones for gold and silver, as well as the banks.
Now, let’s go to the markets and see how we can protect and make your money grow.

S&P 500

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 55

The 200 day moving average comes in at 1276 as does a long-term trend line from the lows set in March of 2009. That is the line in the sand for this market. We expect this level to be broken in the coming days and weeks.

SILVER

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100

Traders should be long this market as all of our Trade Triangles are in a positive mode indicating higher prices ahead. As we have been indicating, we are expecting this market to reach highs towards the latter part of Q3 and early Q4. Look for support for this market at 36.00. The upside target for silver based on the Fibonacci count of 61.8% is $42.98.

GOLD

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100

Traders who have been listening to my updates should be long gold. Short term traders should have taken the 52 week rule that we mentioned last Friday and have a trading unit on and have some nice profits in hand. We are looking for gold to move higher until the end of Q3 and possibly into Q4. Intermediate targets for gold are $1,642 and $1,650.

CRUDE OIL

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 65
The -65 score indicates that this market remains in a trading range. At the present time, the crude oil market continues to have problems just over the $99 a barrel price point. Our Trade Triangle indicators both long and intermediate term remain negative for this market. Support comes in around $94 a barrel and resistance coming in just over $99. We are looking to buy this market later in the week, given the correct signals.

DOLLAR INDEX

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100

The Dollar Index has been trapped in a broad trading range for the past two months. The Dollar Index remains below its 200 day moving average. The longer term trend for the Dollar Index is positive based on our Trade Triangle technology. Resistance remains between 76.00 and 77.00. Support comes in today at 74.00.

REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 55

The CRB index remains in a broad trading range. At the present time, our Trade Triangle technology is mixed for this index. Resistance is now at 350 and support looks to be at 340.

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