Crude Oil Bounces Back After Two Days of Loses

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Crude oil [May contract] closed higher on Monday ending a two day decline off Wednesday's high but remains locked in March's down trending channel. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday.

Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 105.07 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at 97.84 is the next downside target.

First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing near 105.07. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 105.49. First support is this month's low crossing at 100.68. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at 97.84.

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ConocoPhillips Reports First Quarter Earnings

ConocoPhillips [NYSE:COP] today reported first quarter earnings of $2.9 billion, compared with first quarter 2011 earnings of $3.0 billion. Excluding $330 million of special items, first quarter 2012 adjusted earnings were $2.6 billion. Special items were primarily related to gains on asset dispositions, partially offset by impairments and repositioning costs.

“We operated according to plan during the first quarter of 2012, achieving production and refinery utilization targets,” said Jim Mulva, chairman and chief executive officer. “We continued to progress our asset divestment program and execution of our major projects and growth plans. We also accomplished several repositioning milestones, including obtaining a favorable IRS ruling and final board of directors’ approval. Beginning May 1, 2012, our company will become two leading, independent energy companies, ConocoPhillips and Phillips 66.”

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Crude Oil Trades Near Three Days Highs on U.S. Economic Outlook

Crude oil traded near the highest close in three days before reports that may show a strengthening of the economy in the U.S., the world’s biggest crude consumer. Futures were little changed in New York after rising 0.2 percent last week. Consumer purchases that account for about 70 percent of the U.S. economy probably climbed by the most since the end of 2010, according to a Bloomberg News survey before an April 27 Commerce Department report. Iraq halted crude exports from northern fields because of a technical fault at a pipeline network in neighboring Turkey, the Oil Ministry said.

Crude for June delivery was at $103.77 a barrel, down 11 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:40 a.m. Sydney time. The contract rose 1.1 percent to $103.88 on April 20, the highest close since April 17. Front month prices are 5 percent higher this year. Brent oil for June settlement was at $118.63 a barrel, down 13 cents, on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark contract’s front month premium to West Texas Intermediate was at $14.85, from $14.88 on April 20.

Iraq’s crude exports stopped at 7:45 p.m. on April 21, the ministry said in a statement on the website of the official National Media Center yesterday. The nation normally exports 450,000 to 500,000 barrels a day from northern fields through Turkey. It ships most of its oil from the south on tankers sailing from the Persian Gulf.

U.S. consumer spending may have risen 2.3 percent last quarter, according to the Bloomberg survey. That would follow a 2.1 percent gain in the prior period. Gross domestic product rose at a 2.5 percent annual rate after advancing 3 percent in the previous three months, according to the median forecast in a separate Bloomberg survey before the Commerce Department’s April 27 release.

Posted courtesy of Bloomberg News

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Phil Flynn: Precautionary Demand

Crude oil prices were rising early Friday and there is better than expected data from Germany and Microsoft, yet in the big picture, there are those that are saying that oil prices have risen in recent months not due to speculation but what we should call “precautionary demand”. According to Dow Jones U.S. sanctions against Iran are hurting growth in that country and creating "precautionary demand" for oil, which is part of the reason oil prices remain at current high levels according to Caroline Freund, the World Bank's chief economist for the Middle East and North Africa.

In other words, countries have been hoarding oil in the event that oil supply might get cut. This has increased demand and prices have gone higher. It is a valid fundamental reason for oil prices to rise and has been a major factor in the pricing oil. The rise is not due to speculators, as the uninformed would have you believe, but the physical buying of extra barrels. As the Iran risk seems to be pushed back that buying has eased a bit.

Dow Jones reported overnight that European Union member states have agreed to postpone by one month the deadline for a review of the oil embargo on Iran. The EU agreed in January to implement a full oil embargo on Iranian crude oil exports by July 1 in response to its nuclear program. But as a concession, to Greece in particular, it agreed to hold by May 1 a review of the effect of a full embargo. That left next Monday's Foreign Affairs Ministers Summit as the last opportunity to agree any change to the embargo.....Read the entire article.

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Commodities Market Summary for Sunday April 22nd

Crude oil closed higher on Friday but remains locked in March's down trending channel. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 105.07 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at 97.84 is the next downside target. 

Here's our pivot, resistance and support numbers to get the week started tonight!

Daily Pivot Points				Normal Range					Last Bar
Commodity	Chart	S3	S2	S1	PP	R1	R2	R3	H	L	C
Crude Oil		100.48	101.31	102.01	102.84	103.54	104.37	105.07	103.66	102.13	102.72
Natural Gas		1.813	1.858	1.882	1.927	1.951	1.996	2.020	1.971	1.902	1.907
Heating Oil		3.0771	3.0944	3.1098	3.1271	3.1425	3.1598	3.1752	3.1445	3.1118	3.1251
Gasoline RBOB		3.0244	3.0797	3.1169	3.1722	3.2094	3.2647	3.3019	3.2275	3.1350	3.1541
Gold		1606.4	1618.8	1630.1	1642.5	1653.8	1666.2	1677.5	1654.9	1631.2	1641.4
Silver		30.649	30.970	31.374	31.695	32.099	32.420	32.824	32.015	31.290	31.779
Copper		3.5408	3.5692	3.5983	3.6267	3.6558	3.6842	3.7133	3.6550	3.5975	3.6275
Platinum		1544.8	1559.4	1568.7	1583.3	1592.6	1607.2	1616.5	1597.9	1574.0	1578.0
			Extreme Range

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SandRidge Mississippian Trust II Announces Pricing of Initial Public Offering at The Top End of Price Range

SandRidge Mississippian Trust II (the Trust) announced today that it has priced its initial public offering of 26,000,000 common units at a price per common unit of $21.00, which represents the top end of the expected price range of $19.00 to $21.00. The 26,000,000 common units being sold in the offering represent a 52% beneficial interest in the Trust. The underwriters have 30 days to exercise an option to purchase an additional 3,900,000 common units from the Trust to cover over allotments, if any. 

Following completion of the offering, SandRidge Energy, Inc. (NYSE: SD) as sponsor of the Trust, will own approximately 11.3 million common units, assuming no exercise of the underwriters' option, and approximately 12.4 million subordinated units convertible into common units, and the Trust will have a total of 49,725,000 trust units outstanding. The common units have been approved for listing on the New York Stock Exchange, and will trade under the symbol "SDR." The offering, which is subject to customary closing conditions, is expected to close on or about April 23, 2012.

The Trust will own royalty interests conveyed to it by SandRidge that will entitle the Trust to a percentage of the proceeds received by SandRidge from the production of hydrocarbons from currently producing wells and development wells to be drilled by SandRidge on approximately 53,000 net acres in the Mississippian formation in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas.

Visit the SandRidge Investors page for a list of sponsors and more info.

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EXCO Resources to Release 1st Quarter 2012 Results

COT holding EXCO Resources [NYSE: XCO] will be releasing first quarter 2012 results on Tuesday, May 1, 2012, after market close. EXCO will host a conference call on Wednesday, May 2, 2012, at 10:00 a.m. (Dallas time) to discuss the contents of this release and respond to questions.

 Please call (800) 309-5788 if you wish to participate, and ask for the EXCO conference call ID# 70531704. The conference call will also be webcast on EXCO’s website at www.excoresources.com under the Investor Relations tab. Presentation materials related to this release will be posted on EXCO’s website on Tuesday, May 1, 2012, after market close.

 EXCO Resources, Inc. is an oil and natural gas exploration, exploitation, development and production company headquartered in Dallas, Texas with principal operations in East Texas, North Louisiana, Appalachia and West Texas.

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Chevron Announces Webcast on 1st Quarter Earnings

Chevron’s discussion of first quarter 2012 earnings with security analysts will take place on Friday, April 27, 2012, at 8:00 a.m. PST. A webcast of the meeting will be available in a listen only mode to individual investors, media, and other interested parties on Chevron’s website at www.chevron.com under the “Investors” section.

Additional financial and operating information will be contained in the Earnings Supplement that will be available under “Events & Presentations” in the “Investors” section on the website.

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Crude Oil Remains Locked in March's Down Trending Channel

Crude oil [May contract] closed lower on Thursday, as it remains locked in March's down trending channel. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. 


Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 103.83 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at 97.84 is the next downside target. 


First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing near 103.83. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 105.49. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 100.68. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at 97.84.