Trade ideas, analysis and low risk set ups for commodities, Bitcoin, gold, silver, coffee, the indexes, options and your retirement. We'll help you keep your emotions out of your trading.
After hitting our first upside target of $1,110 two days ago, gold prices backed off but still managed to close at their best levels today for a new record high close in New York basis the spot gold.
The main trend continues to be positive and we believe that any pullback in this market should be met with good support. It is possible that we could see a pullback of $20-$25 which would not change the overall positive trend of the market which we see continuing until the end of the year.
As readers of this blog know, we have an upside target zone of $1,250-$1,300 an ounce for gold. While that target zone is still in place, we believe that the huge “energy field” that we’ve discussed in our earlier gold videos is capable of pushing this market higher.
In this new video we explain some of the areas that we are looking at and also some of the places where you can place tight stops to lock in profits.
Just Click Here to watch the video and as always the videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. We would love to hear your views on gold in our so please feel free to leave a comment.
After surging yesterday on the weak dollar and now tropical storm Ida, I think we can focus on all the bearish stuff that did not seem to matter. You know stuff like gas gluts and supply surpluses. As Ida hits the coast the market realizes that there is plenty of oil, products and spare production capacity to easily weather this tropical storm. More oil is on the way as the Saudis and OPEC send signals that more oil production is likely at the December OPEC meeting and news that China is raising the domestic cost of gasoline which could put a dent in China’s domestic oil demand.
Reuters News reported that Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, has increased December supplies to large companies, and one Asian customer is expected to receive full contract volume. Bloomberg News reported that OPEC is increasing output at the fastest pace in two years, adding to near record inventories. This is raising speculation that this is a precursor to OPEC oil increase at the December OPEC meeting. Yet Dow Jones reports that.....Read the entire article.
Crude oil fluctuated as Tropical Depression Ida weakened and the dollar gained against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners. Ida’s sustained winds have dropped to 35 miles (56 kilometers) per hour from 45 mph earlier, the National Hurricane Center said on its Web site. Producers have begun preparations to resume operations. A stronger dollar reduces the appeal of commodities to investors looking for an inflation hedge.
“I doubt there was any severe damage caused by Ida,” said Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis. “There will probably be some impact on next week’s inventory data, but that’s it.” Crude oil for December delivery fell 32 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $79.11 a barrel at 11:36 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures dropped as much as 88 cents and climbed as much as $1.08 today. Prices have increased 77 percent this year.....Read the entire article.
The Dow jumped to new highs for the year, extending its gains from the lows seen in March.
What does this mean for the future?
The Dow is now within 100 points of being into thin air as it has retraced close to 50% of its down move. The NASDAQ has already done this, and the S&P 500 has come very close to achieving this goal. Clearly the trend continues to be positive for the Dow with today’s new highs. The other two indices, while closing very well and on an upbeat note, must clear their previous highs to start another push to the upside. It remains to be seen whether or not that will take place.
Clearly this is an emotional market that’s been driven more by sentiment then hard economic news.
Having said that, one must take into consideration the perception of the marketplace, and as of right now that perception continues to be friendly towards the long side of these markets.
In our new video we show you some of the key points to look at in terms of where these markets could potentially break down, and possibly reverse to the downside.
Just Click Here to watch the video, and as always please feel free to leave a comment and let us know where you think the Dow is headed.
What are the questions that educated investors ask in oil and gas?
Last month I gave investors 10 questions they should be asking management teams, or searching for on the company website, in a recent article. They were basic questions, and you can read them here. After those first 10 are answered, you know how much production a company has, how fast they’re growing, how much cash or debt they have etc. But if you’re still not sure if you want to invest in the company after all that, or just want to know more…what are the right questions to ask? What pitfalls or opportunities might an investor uncover?
1. Decline rates are something management teams don’t really hide, but don’t really talk about either. Every well has declining production until it’s uneconomic. The new shale gas plays often have 85% decline in production in the first year. Tight oil plays (Bakken, Lower Shaunavon etc) have 75% initial decline rates. Decline rates are increasing over time now as the industry drills deeper and tighter plays. Ask management what the initial decline rate is, both company wide, and specifically on their main, big play that they believe will be the growth engine of the company. Then ask what the decline rate flattens out to it’s usually 20-30%.
Why is this important? Because many investors, when forecasting growth, use the only public numbers given for a well – the ones in the press release. Most companies have a production decline graph in their powerpoint, but few actually say what the production levels in the wells in the area flatten out at.....Read the entire article.
Crude oil rose as a falling dollar bolstered investor demand for commodities and Tropical Storm Ida entered the Gulf of Mexico, forcing BP Plc and Chevron Corp. to cut output. Oil climbed more than $2 after the greenback fell against a basket of six major currencies following a decision by the Group of 20 governments to maintain economic stimulus measures. Workers were evacuated in the region, an area that accounts for 27 percent of U.S. crude production and 15 percent of natural gas output. “The G-20 didn’t comment about the dollar, which indicates that no action will be taken, and the greenback will further deteriorate,” said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president of energy with MF Global in New York. “A weak dollar translates into higher oil prices.”
Crude oil for December delivery rose $2.01, or 2.6 percent, to $79.44 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices rose as much as 3.6 percent to $80.19, the biggest gain since Sept. 30. Oil is up 78 percent this year. Prices dropped $2.19, or 2.8 percent, to $77.43 on Nov. 6, the lowest settlement since Oct. 30, after a report showed unemployment in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy consuming country, climbed to 10.2 percent, the highest in 26 years......Read the entire post.
I think it is because they try to apply a long term strategy to a short term time frame. Once they get on the right side of the trade, they have the illusion that they are going to ride that trade for 60, 80, or 100 pips. Most of the time they get a price reversal, stopped out or scared into a losing trade. There are a few exceptions when you can ride price like that, but normally you can not, so let's deal with the everyday market.
If you are going to be a long term successful day trader; it is imperative that you understand that you are not going to ride a 5min set-up into everlasting pip glory. On a short term trade set-up like your 5 chart, look to get in after a confirmation in the direction of the trend, then get out quickly.
After a confirmation, you can usually get out with about 5-10 pips, before price begins to retrace(in the candles) on you or it begins to trade sideways. I think your 15 min chart is a better chart to trade from as a short term trader. Be sure to trade in harmony with the trend.
In the morning, draw a short term trendline on your chart. Be sure to also check to see what the trend is on your daily chart. I generally check my hourly, 4 hour and daily, just to see. If I have an evening star pattern on my hourly chart, then I am not going to take a trade to the long side on my 5 min chart. You have a much stronger chance of quick profit if all or most of your charts agree. You will have the opportunity to go short or long on your 5min chart, but your most successful and profitable trades are going to come when you trade in harmony with your trend.
Keep in mind that your trend is likely to CHANGE or take a BIG DIP or a HUGE SPIKE, so watch your candles for that.
I know traders who get 200 or more pips many days. I can tell you I don't even close to net those kind of pips on an average day. I usually set my TP level for 5-7pips on my 5 min chart and 10-12 on my 15 min chart. I use my small trades to build up my accounts, and I use my larger trade set-ups for my profit rides. My smaller trades during the day give me that extra SL money I need to facilitate my longer term trading, so if I am stopped out, then it doesn't hurt nearly as bad.
(K.I.S.S), Keep it simple sexy. Trading is not physics, it is just a bit tricky until you get use to the way price moves.
I am an equal opportunist and trade all time frames, and I can tell you from experience that a valid set-up on a larger time frame is going to give you more accurate and profitable rides. The downside to longer term trading is that you have to wait longer for those trade set-ups. The downside to day trading is that your profit run isn't as long and the trend within a trend can get confusing, and you must be very good at getting in and getting out quickly. The benefit of course is that you get more trading opportunities and you don't wait as long for valid set-ups.
Short term trades - GET IN, GET OUT!!!!!! Longer term trades - sit back and enjoy the ride!
Learn your candlestick patterns and always let price be your first indicator. Only take trades with proper confirmations.
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Everyone is talking about commodities as the place to be in the coming months. I tend to agree, but it is still important to know where each commodity is trading to maximize returns and reduce risk.
That being said we are also seeing money flow out of the small cap stocks and into the large cap blue chips Stocks. These companies prove year after year that they are profitable and that’s where investors have been putting their money the past couple weeks. This can be seen by simply looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2000 index as the Russell has dropped in value much more than the Dow. But if we see the market turn back up and make a new yearly high in the coming weeks, small cap stocks will most likely provide explosive opportunities for traders.
Below is some analysis on Crude oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Silver....
GLD ETF Trading – Weekly Trading Chart By looking at the weekly chart of gold we can see two simple things. 1 – Each breakout is happening quicker as money continues to move into gold. 2 – This step like pattern (bull flags) is very powerful and can continue for a very long time.
GLD ETF Trading – Daily Trading Chart This chart shows the same price action but on a daily chart. It also shows one way to find and trade low risk setups for the GLD ETF traded fund.
SLV ETF Trading – Weekly Trading Chart Silver ETF trading has not been as exciting. Silver has yet to breakout above the 2008 high. It is actually trading at a major resistance level and still has some work to be done before looking really bullish in my eyes. This is acting like major resistance level for two main reasons.
1 – It is testing the 2008 highs where a lot of traders bought silver over a 5-6 month period. There are a lot of sellers to flush out before moving higher.
2 – The drop in silver price in late 2008 was so scary for investors who bought at $16-20 that they cannot believe they are getting their money back. I think this is making a higher volume of investors sell their positions at break even because they just want out after seeing 50% loss at one point last year.
UNG Fund Trading – Daily Trading Chart UNG has been sliding lower and lower since hitting its head on resistance back in October. The gap down on Friday is bearish indicating traders are starting to panic out of UNG and willing to get out at any price.
UNG Fund Trading – Natural Gas Seasonality Timing UNG and the seasonality chart seem to be spot on for timing the price of natural gas. Keeping an eye on seasonality and general market seasonal patterns can really help improve ones performance. It may be better to trade stocks or commodities, or maybe just carry more cash depending on the timing and situation the market is in.
USO Fund Trading – Daily Trading Chart USO has broken out from its large multi month consolidation from August – early October and is now forming a bull flag. While this flag could last a couple months I have feeling we will see a breakdown or a breakout sooner than later. This is just a gut feel and I will continue to watch and wait for a low risk setup.
Commodity Trading Newsletter Conclusion: To sum up next weeks market action I feel it will not be anything to write home about. Gold and silver will most likely trade sideways or up, natural gas should continue lower and crude oil should trade sideways. With any luck stocks will continue to rally and test the highs once again.
GLD ETF continues to be our investment of choice as it provides the more accurate low risk setups time and time again. With any luck we could get some low risk setups this week but I am not counting on it.
Saudi Aramco is abandoning the West Texas Intermediate benchmark to price oil for sale to U.S. consumers because it is “disconnected” from the company’s customers, Chief Executive Officer Khalid Al-Falih said. The state owned oil company said on Oct. 29 it will start using the Argus Sour Crude Index published by Argus Media Ltd, from next year. Sour refers to the oil’s sulfur content.
“WTI has really become disconnected with the market where we sell and what we sell -- we sell sour crude, heavier sour crude in the U.S. Gulf coast, that is where most of our barrels in North America go,” al-Falih told reporters today in Rabigh, near the Red Sea town of Jeddah in Saudi Arabia. Aramco has priced its U.S. deliveries against WTI, a light, sweet crude delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma, since 1994. The price is determined by oil futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange and published by Platts, the energy- information division of McGraw Hill Cos.....Read the entire article.
Sponsors of the United States Natural Gas Fund, UNG, took baby steps toward restoring the fund’s ability to issue new shares yesterday.
UNG is an exchange traded fund that invests in the natural gas futures market. The fund stopped issuing new shares on Aug. 12, citing regulatory uncertainty in the commodities marketplace. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating the role of ETFs in the commodities market and is expected to announce strict position limits for such funds. Many expect the $4 billion UNG ETF to exceed the allowable limits, as it controls a significant portion of the front-month natural gas futures market.
Since halting the issuance of new shares, UNG has traded at a sharp premium to its underlying net asset value, as demand for the fund has outstripped supply. As of 2:32 p.m. ET, Aug. 21, it was trading at a 16% premium to NAV. The sponsors of UNG have been looking for ways to maintain exposure to the natural gas market while reducing the number of futures contracts they hold. Yesterday, UNG secured a $500 million total return swap that could help.
Total return swaps are privately negotiated agreements between two parties to exchange cash flows based on the performance of a target index. In this case, UNG entered into an agreement with a bank to exchange cash flows based on the performance of a front month natural gas futures contract. Because swap contracts are privately negotiated and not linked to any underlying holding, they should not count toward any new CFTC limits.....Read the entire article.
I was just looking at the charts and they are beginning to look very, very bullish. The formation I show you in today’s video is a classic continuation pattern to the upside. This pattern also confirms a Fibonacci target number we are looking at.
This video is short and to the point and I think it will get you thinking about this energy market.
Just Click Here to watch the video and as always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. After you watch the movie, please feel free to leave a comment.
* Natural gas spot prices fell over the week at most market locations, declining on average 16 cents per million Btu (MMBtu). Decreases ranged between 2 cents and 77 cents per MMBtu. In the few trading locations where prices rose, increases were modest, ranging between 1 and 4 cents per MMBtu. The Henry Hub natural gas spot price fell 10 cents on the week, closing at $4.49 per MMBtu.
* At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the December 2009 natural gas contract fell 34 cents per MMBtu, or 7 percent. The November contract expired on Wednesday, October 28, at $4.289 per MMBtu.
* Working natural gas in storage increased to 3,788 billion cubic feet (Bcf) as of October 30, according to EIA�s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report. This figure represents an implied net injection of 29 Bcf. Storage levels reached new record highs in all three storage regions, as well as on a national level.
* The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil contract rose $2.91 per barrel, or 4 percent, ending the report week at $80.30 per barrel, or $13.84 per MMBtu.
* The number of natural gas rotary rigs rose by 3 to 728, according to data Baker Hughes Incorporated released on October 30.
Precious Metals ETF have gone wild the past 2 weeks. Last week we saw gold and silver prices drop sharply as it shook out short term trader’s stop orders before breaking out and moving higher. Also there is a disconnect between the gold and the dollar. Energy commodities like natural gas and crude oil are moving in opposite directions and look to be picking up speed. Natural gas is losing pressure and oil is on fire.
GLD ETF Trading – Pivot Trading Low Last week we had our pivot trading low generate another buy signal for gold. Trading pivot lows is a simple trading strategy. I call them low risk setups and take advantage of buying a stock, commodity or currency after a pullback to support and when a reversal candle is formed. This chart clearly shows when you are trading with the trend buying on the dips is generally a low risk play with great up side potential.
Precious Metals ETF Trading – Gold Bullion Takes Control This is a chart which shows the performance of gold stocks (red), silver bullion (blue) and gold bullion (green). As you can see the past 2 weeks while the market has been selling down precious metals stocks have been hit harder than silver and gold.
Because of the heavy selling in stocks recently the smart money had been going into commodities especially gold bullion. Gold stocks are a great play but this is telling us investors feel safer in physical bullion than stocks.
Gold is the most known precious metal and safe haven which is why it’s holding value better than silver and stocks. This week we are seeing gold become more valuable in several major currencies which means gold is actually making a real move higher.
USO ETF Trading – Breakout & Bull Flag Crude oil has had some great breakouts this year and it looks like we are about to get another buy signal shortly. We had a breakout in Oct from the large pennant and are now flagging which is very bullish. We could see USO reach $50 in the next month or two.
UNG ETF Trading – Pivot Low or Waterfall Sell Off? Natural gas is at a crucial level for a higher low bounce or another massive panic sell off. Trading right now with UNG is a 50/50 shot so we will just have to wait and let things unfold more before taking any action.
The Stock Markets, Precious Metals & Energy Trading Conclusion: The market is starting to feel a little squirmy as it tries to find support. Small cap stocks continue to get crushed while blue chip (large cap) stocks are holding more of their value. Gold has broken higher this week while silver and precious metal stocks under perform their big sister Yellow Gold.
Crude oil is holding up nicely forming a 3 week bull flag and showing signs of life while natural gas continues to get hammered.
The market has been jumpy the past 2 weeks because market participants are very uneasy about the future direction of the US dollar.
Crude oil rose after a government report showed that U.S. inventories unexpectedly dropped as imports declined to a two month low. Stockpiles of crude oil fell 3.94 million barrels to 335.9 million last week, the Energy Department said today. A 1.5 million barrel gain was forecast, according to the median of responses in a Bloomberg News survey of analysts. Oil also advanced as equities gained and a weaker U.S. dollar bolstered the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. “The inventory report today was definitely supportive,” said Tom Bentz, a senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. “Prices were already up because of the weak dollar and rising stocks. These numbers just added to the upward momentum.”
Crude oil for December delivery rose 59 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $80.19 a barrel at 2:12 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $81.06, the highest since Oct. 26. Prices are up 80 percent this year. Oil traded at $80.13 before the release of the supply report at 10:30 a.m. in Washington. “It is very hard to justify oil going from $30 to above $80 based only on the fundamentals of supply and demand,” Nouriel Roubini, the economist who predicted the global economic crisis, said today at the Inside Commodities Conference in New York. Oil touched $32.40 in December. Current prices are “in part” a bubble.....Read the entire article.
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.0 million barrels per day during the week ending October 30, 233 thousand barrels per day below the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 80.6 percent of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.0 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.0 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 8.1 million barrels per day last week, down 764 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 8.6 million barrels per day, 1.5 million barrels per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 1.1 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 197 thousand barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.0 million barrels from the previous week. At 335.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are near the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.3 million barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.4 million barrels, and are above the upper boundary of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 1.4 million barrels last week and are in the upper half of the average range.....Read the entire report.
Crude oil rose more than $1 a barrel after failing to decline below a two week low and as the India’s central bank purchase of gold bolstered the appeal of commodities to investors. Selling stopped after futures fell to $76.55 a barrel earlier today, the lowest intraday price since Oct. 15. When prices do not drop after reaching a new low, technical traders see it as a sign to purchase oil. Prices also increased after the Reserve Bank of India bought 200 metric tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund.
“Oil tested support in the $76.50 area and failed to break through,” said Tom Bentz, a senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. “From a technical standpoint, this was a sign that prices are moving higher.” Crude oil for December delivery climbed $1.16, or 1.5 percent, to $79.29 a barrel at 1:37 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have risen 78 percent this year. Oil fell as much as 2 percent earlier today on the announcement that the Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Lloyds Banking Group Plc received a second bailout from U.K. taxpayers, signaling that the global economy may take longer to recover from the worst recession since the 1930s.....Read the entire article.
In our last video on the S&P 500 (10/27), we indicated that this market may have topped out for the year. Today’s action puts in place a weekly “Trade Triangle” which indicates that a temporary or a permanent top is now in place for this market.
In this latest video, we share with you some of the ideas that we think could potentially come into play for this market. Not only do we have some downside targets in mind, but we also see a pattern that could evolve in the next several weeks which will confirm that we’ve made a serious high in this market.
Just Click Here to watch the new video and please take a moment to leave a comment on what you think of the video and where the SP 500 is headed.
Crude oil rose from a two week low as manufacturing expanded in the U.S. and China in October, signaling energy demand is increasing in the world’s two biggest oil consuming countries. Oil gained as the Institute for Supply Management said U.S. manufacturing grew at the fastest pace in more than three years. Chinese manufacturing climbed to the highest level in 18 months, according to a purchasing managers’ index from HSBC Holdings Plc today and a government backed index issued yesterday.
“It’s a great indication that the industrial component of these economies, which is the energy intensive component, is doing better than it was,” said Brad Samples, a commodity analyst for Summit Energy Inc. in Louisville, Kentucky. “As opposed to the trend last year when it was falling, now it’s rising.” Crude oil for December delivery climbed $1.28, or 1.7 percent, to $78.28 a barrel at 11:23 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, it touched $78.38 a barrel. Futures lost 4.4 percent last week, the first pullback in a month.....Read the entire article.
The last week of October was something else. Heavy fiscal year end selling for mutual funds seemed to put a damper on good news and push stocks and commodities lower. October is historically a tough month on the US market with mutual funds locking in profits on their books.
Below are some charts showing my analysis on gold, silver, oil, natural gas and the S&P 500 index along with a seasonality chart proving that October has more selling pressure than other months.
Gold GLD ETF – Gold Pivot Trading Low – Daily Chart As you can see from the chart below we appear to be in the middle of a pivot low correction which can make for some great entry points. The trend is up, gold is oversold and it looks like we had a reversal low last week.
Silver SLV ETF – Silver Pivot Trading Low – Weekly Chart This is a chart I posted a couple months ago and so far silver has traded within the trend lines and support & resistance levels I pointed out in early August. Silver still looks bullish as it is trading at a pivot low.
Gold Miners GDX ETF – Gold Miners Pivot Trading Low – Weekly Chart Gold mining stocks appear to be trading near the bottom of the trend channel. The odds are still pointing to higher prices.
Crude Oil USO Fund – Oil Pivot Trading Low – Daily Chart This chart of USO is also from a recent post in early October. USO broke out and is now trading at our support trend lines. There was a nice reversal candle last week but the heavy selling across the entire market pulled oil back down.
Natural Gas UNG Fund – Natural Gas Pivot Trading Low – Daily Chart Pivot trading low could be close for UNG. The daily chart is telling me we saw the bottom in natural gas back in September as prices collapsed washing out most long (bullish) traders. I figure we will see prices trade between $9-12 for several months as the commodity forms a base.
S&P 500 Index – S&P 500 Pivot Trading Low – Daily Chart The broad market looks and feels oversold. This chart uses Andrews Pitchfork analysis to show where short term pullbacks to the middle trend line (middle of trading range) have been a buying opportunity. Deeper corrections drop to the bottom support trend channel. These corrections sometimes form a lower low and lower high that scares traders and inestors out of the market before heading higher.
S&P 500 Seasonality Chart – S&P 500 Pivot Trading Low This chart shows the performance for each month over the past 37 years. Simple analysis shows selling pressure in Sept and Oct as mutual funds sell positions to lock in gains for their books each year. This move is generally compounded because seasoned traders know about this seasonal movement and also sell positions and even short the market to take advantage of this at times.
I think we are inline for a perfect storm going into year end. The market is trading at a pivot low from many different analysis theories. This forms a high probability trading opportunity in the next 2 months if we see prices reverse and start heading higher this month.
Pivot Trading Low Conclusion: A lot of stocks have taken a real beating this past month as sell orders flooded the trading desks last week. Technology, financials and small cap stocks took is the worst. The sharp drop is not really what we wanted to see but it makes good sense. With those groups posting the largest gains since March it is only normal that money will be coming out of those stocks to lock in gains.
Many traders are starting to panic about another possible market melt down. This negative sentiment is a bullish indicator for higher prices. If everyone is scared and exiting their positions then we must be close to trading a pivot low.
I am still bullish on the market and will be looking for new opportunities if we see prices start to head higher this month.
