Barclays' Favorite Oil Companies

From Barclays Capital's "Global Energy Outlook" report published on Aug. 11, 2011, the following exploration, production, integrated oil and refining companies are ranked overweight with a positive sector outlook. Barclays' energy experts are bullish on oil long-term and that could help out the equities of the following 10 undervalued names.



Chevron (CVX) is one of Barclays' favorite big oil overweights. Price target: $135. Upside potential: 45%.

Hess Corporation (HES) is trading under 7 times forward earnings. Barclays price target: $108. Upside potential: 93%.

Murphy Oil Corp (MUR) is mainly U.S. dependent. But Barclays likes them. Price target: $77. Upside potential: 49%.

Canada's Imperial Oil (IMO) has a price target of $57 with a potential upside of 44%, according to Barclays' estimates.

Sunoco (SUN) is a household name in the U.S. And the bain of the average America's existence when gasoline prices hit $4 a gallon. Barclays price target: $54. Upside potential: $74.

Tesoro (TSO) is a national refiner headquartered in Texas. Barclays price target: $38. Upside potential: 95%.

Headquarterted in the UK, Afren PLC (LON: AFR) drills for oil off the coast of Africa. Barclays price target: $200. Upside potential: 111%.

BowLeven (LON: BLVN) is another UK based oil and gas exploration and production company with most of its assets off coastal Africa. Barclays price target: $515. Upside potential: 312%.

Max Petroleum (LON: MXP) explores and produces oil in Kazakhstan. Is nice! Barclays price target: $45. Upside potential: 275%.

Premier Oil (LON: PMO) maintains oil and gas exploration and production ops in the North Sea and on land in Pakistan and the Middle East. Barclays price target: $631. Upside potential: 86%.

Posted courtesy of Forbes.Com

Dan Dicker: Oil's Endless Bid

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ConocoPhillips Is Cheaper Than Rivals but Has Plenty to Prove

From Y Charts.Com......

Oil prices are creeping back up, mirroring the expanding (if still sickly) global economy, and so one wonders: which major oil company to buy?

Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) are well managed, diversified and trading at bargain prices, according to YCharts Pro Ratings. But ConocoPhillips (COP), which lags behind its bigger rivals, is by some measures even cheaper. All the company has to do is make good on its many promises, which, of course, is easier said than done.

On a price to sales basis, ConocoPhillips looks like a steal. Its p/e ratio is also super low. And if you’re making comparisons to bond yields, ConocoPhillips’ earnings yield puts most junk bonds to shame. All that disrespect by investors means ConocoPhillips’ dividend yield is pretty rich, too. Why so cheap? Well, ConocoPhillips carries a higher debt load than its bigger rivals. And it holds less cash, though recent sales of LUKOIL shares have fattened the cash account.

And even though the company is eight years into the merger of Conoco and Phillips, there are signs it’s still working to get its act together. CEO James J. Mulva, though he’s nearing age 65, swept much of top management out the door in early October, bringing in some outside talent. And Mulva is pushing a financial strategy, reduced capital expenditures, debt reduction, rising buybacks and dividends, that seems like the right idea, but perhaps a little late in arriving.

ConocoPhillips has more oil and gas properties around the world than it can reasonably develop, so it is selling some to raise cash and pay down debt. Super, though the assets might have fetched more when oil prices were sky high a few years back. And like all major oil companies, ConocoPhillips faces the daunting task of replacing the oil and gas it pumps and sells each year, a task that is growing ever riskier and more expensive.

So, when oil prices surge, and they will, you might get a little extra bounce with shares of unloved ConocoPhillips, though Exxon and Chevron will certainly rise, as well. Warren Buffett bought ConocoPhillips in the low $70s, so you can buy it more cheaply. The Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) CEO overpaid because oil prices soon fell. But relative to other major oil companies, did he see a bargain?

Here's the Y charts showing the comparison to Exxon and Chevron


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Exxon Holds Its Ground

Nearly a year ago, Exxon Mobil made a multibillion dollar bet on its vision that natural gas will become a dominant fuel during the next few decades. Tuesday, Chevron made a similar, albeit smaller, wager on a domestic natural gas producer. As Chevron starts to sell its Atlas deal to shareholders, Exxon continues to have trouble convincing its investors it made the right move.

Still, Exxon isn't veering from its long-term strategy of bulking up on U.S. natural gas. In December, the oil company announced plans to buy XTO Energy Inc. of Fort Worth, Texas, making Exxon the largest gas producer in the U.S. This summer, it bought gas producer Ellora Energy Inc. of Boulder, Colo., for $695 million, and opened a terminal along the Gulf Coast to import natural gas from the Middle East.

All the while, the price of natural gas has been falling, and is off 21% since Exxon announced the $25 billion XTO deal. On Tuesday, natural gas futures contract for December settled up 12.2 cents at $4.210 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The commodity is trading at low prices after newly developed drilling techniques exploited tight shale gas rock formations during the past decade, creating a glut.

The XTO acquisition lifted Exxon's energy output by nearly 14%, but brought in only about $150 million in net earnings in the third quarter, the first in which Exxon reported financial data that included XTO. That is about 3% of what the company earned from the sale of oil and natural gas during that period......Read the entire article.


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Major Oil & Energy Earnings On Deck

This is the peak of earnings season and the flow of earnings is coming on strong. This week is jammed full of energy companies reporting earnings and it will be interesting to see how these companies compare against last year’s earnings and after the September rise in oil prices. Of the integrated oil giants, we have ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM), and Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) this week. Solar is far from being a true energy sector of yet in the grand scheme of things when you see how little of the overall energy comes from it, but industry leader First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is on deck this week.

We have compiled the Thomson Reuters earnings estimates, shown price ranges and performance relevance and added in color on each where applicable. We have also added in the oil and gas ETF performance in the ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas (NYSE: DIG) for a comparison on how each has performed.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) reports its oil earnings Wednesday morning. Thomson Reuters has estimates for the oil giant of $1.45 EPS and $45.59 billion in revenues. Estimates for the quarter ahead are $1.36 EPS and $46.99 billion in revenues. With shares at $61.34, the stock just hit a new 52 week high of $61.88 on Friday and hit a new 52 week high on Monday of $62.63. The market cap here is $91.3 billion and the average analyst price target is $62.00. Shares are up more than 10% from the August lows......Read the entire article.



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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Wednesday Morning Oct. 13th

Crude oil was higher overnight and appears poised to renew the rally off August's low. At the same time, stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.93 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If November renews the rally off last week's low, the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 84.65 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 84.09
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 84.65

Crude oil pivot point for Wednesday morning is 81.63

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.99
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.93


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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Friday Morning Oct. 1st

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If November extends the rally off last week's low, the 87% retracement level of August's decline crossing at 82.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.69 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 81.08
Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of August's decline crossing at 82.41

Crude oil pivot for Friday morning is 79.23

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.69
Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 73.58



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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning Sept. 28th

Crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If November extends the rally off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 78.86 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 73.58 would renew the decline off this month's low.


First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 77.17
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.86

Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 76.40

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 73.58
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 73.08

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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Friday Morning

Crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.26 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 70.35 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.26
Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 75.58

Crude oil pivot point for Friday morning is 74.42

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 70.76
Second support is May's low crossing at 70.35


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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook Wednesday Morning

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September extends the aforementioned rally, the reaction high crossing at 84.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.12 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 82.64
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.50

Crude oil's pivot point for Wednesday morning is 82.10

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.49
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.12

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Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Dollar Commentary For Monday Evening

Crude oil closed sharply higher on Monday and above June's high crossing at 80.82 as it renews the rally off May's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 84.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.26 would temper the near term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 71.77. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.50. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.46. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.26.

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Natural gas posted a key reversal down due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off July's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the reaction high crossing at 5.082 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.575 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.007. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.082. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.668. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.575.

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The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 80.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.98 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.33. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.98. First support is today's low crossing at 80.90. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 80.47.

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Gold closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it continues to rebound off the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1158.30. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1189.90 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing at 1132.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1189.90. Second resistance is today's high crossing at 1191.80. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 1155.60. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing at 1132.70.

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Monday Morning

Crude oil was higher overnight and has renewed the rally off July's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish again signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September extends the aforementioned rally, June's high crossing at 80.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.17 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 79.90
Second resistance is June's high crossing at 80.82

Crude oil's pivot point for Monday morning is 78.28

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.28
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.17

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Natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September extends the aforementioned rally, June's high crossing at 5.282 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.587 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 5.007
Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.282

Natural gas pivot point for Monday morning 4.881

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.692
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.587

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Conoco's 2nd Quarter Profit Soars, Plans To Sell Entire Lukoil Stake

ConocoPhillips' (COP) second quarter earnings more than quadrupled on higher commodities prices and as its refining business returned to profitability, with results topping expectations. The company also reached an agreement to sell about 40% of its stake in Russian oil giant OAO Lukoil Holdings (LUKOY, LKOH.RS) and unveiled plans to sell all of it by the end of next year, instead of prior plans to just halve it. Conoco agreed to sell the initial part of its 20% stake in Lukoil for $3.44 billion. The deal is set to close in the current quarter. The rest will be sold to either Lukoil or on the open market.

Conoco, the third largest U.S. oil company by market value after Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Chevron Corp. (CVX), is in the midst of a major restructuring program that includes plans for $10 billion in divestitures in an effort to repay debt, a shift from a debt fueled acquisition spree when commodities prices were soaring. It reported a profit of $4.16 billion, or $2.77 a share, up from $900 million, or 57 cents a share, a year earlier. The latest quarter included a net $1.10 a share in gains. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters forecast earnings of $1.56 a share. Conoco didn't provide revenue figures.

Exploration and production, which accounts for most of the company's profits, saw earnings soar on higher prices, though, as average daily oil and gas production fell 7.5% amid normal field declines and planned maintenance. Conoco's refining business profit also soared as margins strengthened and utilization rates improved. Refiners have benefited as demand for gasoline and diesel began to improve this year, though the sustainability is highly uncertain. Shares closed Tuesday at $54.44 and were inactive premarket. The stock is up 6.6% this year.

From the.....Dow Jones Newswire.

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Are Crude Oil Signals Turning Neutral? Here's Fridays Numbers

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 73.49 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 78.46 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 78.13
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 78.46

Fridays pivot point for crude oil is 76.92

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 74.92
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 73.49

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Natural gas was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.628 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If July extends this week's rally, the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 5.196
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429

Fridays pivot point for natural gas is 5.107

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.931
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.628

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Crude Oil Signals Remain Bullish After Overnight Profit taking

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain bullish signaling that additional short term gains are possible.

If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 78.46 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 73.27 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 78.13
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 78.46

Thursday's pivot point for crude oil is 77.29

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 74.56
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 73.27

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Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.574 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If July extends this week's rally, the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 5.196
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429

Thursday's pivot point for natural gas is 5.046

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.884
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.574

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Crude Oil Rises Above $75 After European Industrial Output Gains

Crude oil rose above $75 a barrel on speculation economic growth will accelerate after European industrial production climbed more than forecast in April. Oil increased as much as 3 percent after the European Union’s statistics office reported that output in the 16 nations using the euro advanced 0.8 percent. Economists projected a gain of 0.5 percent, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The dollar dropped to its lowest level against the common currency in more than a week, strengthening the appeal of commodities.

“The industrial numbers out of Europe were somewhat better than expected, which is bolstering confidence about the region’s economy,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in Chicago. “The strength of the euro is a major factor pushing most commodities higher today.” Crude oil for July delivery rose $1.25, or 1.7 percent, to $75.03 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are up 4.2 percent from a year ago.

Brent crude oil for July delivery increased 68 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $75.03 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Oil retreated from the day’s high after Moody’s Investors Service said it downgraded Greece’s government bond ratings by four levels to Ba1 from A3. Oil and the euro tumbled in May on concern that Greece’s debt crisis would spread to other nations using the common currency.

The dollar declined against the euro for the fourth time in five days. The single currency gained as much as 1.5 percent to $1.2299, the highest since June 3. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 0.2 percent to 1,093.89.....Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Dollar Commentary For Friday Evening

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 78.46 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 69.51 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 76.30. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 78.46. First support is Monday's low crossing at 69.51. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 67.15.

Natural gas closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.444 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.151 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.995. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.151. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.635. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.444.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Friday due to short covering but remains below the 10 day moving average. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.01 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 88.80. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 89.71. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.01. Second support is today's low crossing at 86.77.

Gold closed higher due to short covering on Friday and closed above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1225.80. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 1198.10 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August extends this spring's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1254.50. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1216.10. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 1198.10.

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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Friday Morning

As noted before, Crude oil's rebound from 64.24 is possibly still in progress and further rise might be seen. But after all, we're still expecting strong resistance at 61.8% retracement of 87.15 to 64.23 at 78.39 to limit upside to conclude the correction. On the downside, below 69.51 minor support will argue that such recovery is finished and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 64.24 low first.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms our view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, we'd anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. On the upside, break of resistance at 78 level is needed to be indicate that fall from 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Thursday Morning

Current development suggests that whole rebound from 64.24 is still in progress and might extend beyond 75.72. But after all, we'd expect upside to be limited by 61.8% retracement of 87.15 to 64.23 at 78.39 and bring fall resumption. Below 69.51 minor support will argue that such recovery is finished and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 64.24 low first.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms our view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, we'd anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. On the upside, break of resistance at 78 level is needed to be indicate that fall from 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Crude Oil, Natural Gas and U.S Dollar Commentary For Wednesday Evening

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 75.72 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, last July's low crossing at 66.11 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 74.96. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 75.72. First support is Monday's low crossing at 69.51. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 67.15.

Natural gas closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends this week's rally, the 50% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.151 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.413 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.995. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.151. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.539. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.413.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and turning neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.85 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 88.80. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 89.71. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 87.35. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.85.

Gold closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday hinting that a double top with May's high could have been posted today. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extends this week's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 1198.10 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1254.50. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1217.60. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 1198.10.

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