Crude Oil Falls as Equities Decline, Oil Workers Seem To Be Kept On The Job, OPEC Unlikely To Announce New Cuts

"Crude Oil Falls as Equities Decline, Signaling Lower Demand"
Crude oil fell as declining equity markets signaled that the recession in major energy consuming countries will prevent demand from rebounding. Prices retreated from the highest level this year as a drop in telephone and technology companies snuffed out an early stock rally. The Energy Department said yesterday that U.S. crude oil supplies climbed to the highest level since 1990 as fuel consumption tumbled.

“We’re just tracking equities,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst with Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “The recent demand data are so weak that we could have a remarkable increase in demand.....Complete Story

"Oil Workers Stay Put In a Downturn"
The recent oil boom spurred the largest expansion in offshore drilling since the 1970s. Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO) particularly cashed in on the huge demand for its 45 deepwater oil rigs that it contracts to oil companies such as ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX) and Conoco-Phillips (COP). During the past three years, Diamond's average annual growth rate was 41%, and in 2008 it increased profits by 55%,to $1.3 billion. But when the economy took a nosedive and oil prices plummeted last year, drilling activity saw a precipitous drop, too. While Diamond is still growing, the pace has slowed: On Apr. 23 the Houston company announced a 13% revenue increase in the first quarter of 2009. In 2008, revenue had grown by nearly 30% compared to the same period the year before.....Complete Story

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

"OPEC Unlikely to Announce New Output Cut in May, Barclays Says"
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, supplier of about 40 percent of the world’s oil, is unlikely to announce a further output cut at its next meeting as prices “stabilize,” according to Barclays Capital. OPEC will probably keep production targets unchanged as long as crude prices remain around current levels and inventory growth continues to slow, according to Barclays’s head of commodities research, Paul Horsnell. The group meets on May 28 in Vienna.

“If they held the meeting today, there’s no reason to change” quotas, Horsnell said in a telephone interview from London. “Prices are stabilizing and starting to nudge up in the direction they want.....Complete Story



Do you think OPEC cuts have an influence on the price of oil anymore? Let's us know what you think, please feel free to leave a comment!


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Crude Oil Lower Overnight, Higher Prices Possible Near Term

June crude oil traded slightly lower overnight as it consolidated some of Monday's rally but move higher as we close in on regular trading hours. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends last week's rally, April's high crossing at 55.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.42 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

We will be watching the SP 500 and the U.S. dollar closely as we expect a pull back in the markets to take crude oil down with it. We still are only playing crude on the long side as this bull run is a train we won't get in front of until the SP trades in the 950 area.

Tuesday's pivot point is 53.90

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 54.64.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 54.81.

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 51.59.
Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.42.

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The June S&P 500 index was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 856.14 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 895. Above 895 we are bullish and look to take profits near 1st resistance.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 913.25
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 924.75

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 884.50
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 866

The June S&P 500 Index was up 0.40 points. at 903.20 as of 5:58 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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The June Dollar was lower overnight as it extends last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends the decline, March's low crossing at 83.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.44 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.05.
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.44.

First support is the overnight low crossing at 83.81.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.


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Oil Hits Highest Prices In 5 Weeks, Alaska Projects Revving Up, Oil Execs On Energy Independence

"Oil Rises to Highest in 5 Weeks as Pending Home Sales Increase"
Crude oil rose to a five week high as the number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes jumped along with spending on U.S. construction projects, signaling energy demand may improve with the economy.

Oil climbed as much as 1.4 percent and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index came within 1 percent of erasing its 2009 loss as the National Association of Realtors said the index of signed purchase agreements jumped 3.2 percent in March, compared with a 2 percent gain in February.....Complete Story

"Two New Projects Revving Up in Alaska's Oil Patch"
Oil prices are down and some oil-patch work is being throttled back, but North Slope producers are going full steam ahead on two large projects. Several hundred people have been put to work and the numbers will increase as the work continues, the companies involved say. One project underway is at Point Thomson, 60 miles east of Prudhoe Bay, where ExxonMobil Corp. is rigging up to begin drilling a large undeveloped gas and condensate field.

The company has completed the move of a large drill rig and other equipment to the site over 50 miles of ice road. Nabors Rig 19-E, one of the largest in Alaska, is now being reassembled. Plans are to start drilling in early May and continue operations through the summer.....Complete Story

"U.S. Energy Independence? Get Real, Oil Execs Say in Survey"
Most oil industry executives scoff at the idea that the U.S. can wean itself off foreign crude in the next couple of decades, a survey showed. Only 16 percent of oil and natural gas executives said that by 2030 the U.S. will be able to depend solely on its own energy supplies, according to a survey by KPMG LLP’s Global Energy Institute. A majority said it will be after 2015 before it’s “viable” to mass produce alternative energy.

“The executives’ perceptions of energy independence mirror their views on the viability of alternatives in the near term,” Bill Kimble, executive director of the institute, said in a statement. KPMG surveyed 382 U.S. financial executives in the oil and gas business last month.....Complete Story


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Crude Oil Closes Higher, Higher Prices Possible Near Term

June crude oil closed sharply higher on Friday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 51.54 confirming that a short term low has been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 54.81 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 50.21 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 53.65.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 54.81.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 50.21.
Second support is Monday's low crossing at 48.01.

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The June Dollar closed slightly lower on Friday as consolidates some of Thursday rally. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends the decline, March's low crossing at 83.14 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.64 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.53.
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.64.

First support is Thursday's low crossing at 84.03.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

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The June S&P 500 index closed higher on Friday as it extended the rally off March's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 849.22 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Friday's high crossing at 887.10.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 855.31.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 849.22.


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Shell Says Rebound Unlikely, Motor Fuel Supplies Decline

"Crude Oil, Gasoline Rise as Supplies of the Motor Fuel Decline"
Crude oil and gasoline rose after a government report showed an unexpected drop in U.S. inventories of the motor fuel as refiners reduced operating rates.

Gasoline supplies declined 4.7 million barrels to 212.6 million last week, the biggest reduction since September, the Energy Department said. Stockpiles were forecast to rise by 200,000 barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Prices also increased after stocks rallied and the dollar dropped.

“Nobody was looking for a gasoline decline of that size,” said Sean Brodrick, natural resource analyst with Weiss Research in Jupiter, Florida. “This shows that refineries are keeping processing rates too low because there’s obviously some demand out there for gasoline.....Complete Story

"Iraq Launches Tenders for 60 Wells in Southern Oil Fields"
Iraq Sunday issued two tenders for foreign companies to drill a total of 60 wells in the country's large oil fields in southern Missan governorate in a bid to increase crude oil output, according to tender document posted on the oil ministry Web site.

The first tender, issued through Missan Oil Co., or MOC, an affiliate of the oil ministry, calls for the drilling of 15 wells in the Halfaya and Amarah oil fields, and another 15 wells in the Abu Ghirab.....Complete Story

"Shell Says Oil Unlikely to Rebound as Profit Slumps"
Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe’s largest oil company, said crude prices are unlikely to rebound in the next 12 to 18 months as it reported a 62 percent slump in first-quarter profit.

Net income declined to $3.49 billion, or 57 cents a share, from $9.08 billion, or $1.46, a year earlier, The Hague based company said today in a statement. Excluding inventory changes and one time items, earnings beat analysts’ estimates.

Shell follows BP Plc, its smaller rival, in posting lower earnings after oil prices plunged about $100 from a record. Chief Executive Jeroen van der Veer has pledged to pay out about $10 billion in dividends this year, even as Shell funds the industry’s biggest spending program to revive production growth......Complete Story


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Oil Falls For Second Day, Valero Profits Up

"Oil Falls a Second Day on Concern Swine Flu Will Curb Fuel Use"
Crude oil fell for a second day on concern that fuel demand will drop as the swine-flu outbreak curtails travel and delays a recovery from the global recession.

Oil, gold and copper declined as the World Health Organization raised its global pandemic alert to the highest since the warning system was adopted in 2005, saying the disease is not containable. Crude rose in eight of the past 10 weeks as the stock market climbed on speculation that the economy and energy consumption would rebound later this year.

“There’s a potential that a swine-flu outbreak will crimp economic growth,” said Rick Mueller, a director of oil markets at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. “There’s also recognition that the recent rally was overly optimistic. Demand isn’t recovering.....Complete Story

"OPEC Oil Price Eases Early In The Week"
The price for oil produced by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) shed nearly $0.80 Monday, the group announced Tuesday.

After rising to just below the 50 dollar mark at the end of last week, one barrel (158 liters) of OPEC crude oil fell by $0.76 to settle at $49.21 on Monday.

The Vienna based organization calculates a basket price based on 12 brands produced by its members.....Complete Story

"Valero Energy Profit Rises on Higher Refining Margins"
Valero Energy Corp., the largest U.S. oil refiner, said first-quarter profit rose 18 percent on increased margins for processing crude into gasoline and other petroleum products.

Net income rose to $309 million, 59 cents a share, from $261 million, or 48 cents, a year earlier, San Antonio-based Valero said today in a statement. The per-share results beat by 9 cents the average of 18 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Sales fell 50 percent to $13.8 billion.

Valero benefited from lower costs and a rebound in gasoline prices as U.S. refiners cut processing rates faced with reduced fuel demand in an economy hobbled by recession. The company earned an average of $8.77 for each barrel of oil it processed in the first quarter.....Complete Story


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PetroChina Misses Analyst Estimates, Shell Profits Plummet

"PetroChina First Quarter Net Falls, Trailing Analyst Estimates"
PetroChina Co., the world’s second largest company by market value, posted a profit that trailed analysts’ estimates for the first quarter of what will be its “most challenging” year.

Net income declined 35 percent to 18.96 billion yuan ($2.8 billion) from 29.3 billion yuan a year earlier, the Beijing based company said in a statement to the Shanghai exchange yesterday. That’s worse than a median estimate of 19.5 billion yuan in a Bloomberg survey of three analysts.

China’s economy grew at its weakest pace in nearly a decade in the first quarter, and PetroChina faces “huge difficulties” in 2009 as the global financial crisis reduces demand for oil products, it said last month. Asia’s biggest crude producer said it will cut costs and reduce risk in the second quarter, and China passed a $585 billion stimulus package to revive growth.....Complete Story

"Florida House Members Mull Offshore Drilling Bill"
A bill that would allow oil drilling off Florida's coast is ready for a vote in the state House of Representatives.

Today legislators questioned Rep. Charles Van Zant, R-Keystone Heights, for more than an hour, voicing concern about the bill that would allow the governor and Cabinet to approve drilling leases between 3 and 10.5 miles off the state's coast. They expressed worries that drilling could hurt the tourism industry, the seafood industry, and the environment.

Van Zant assured members that drilling technology has advanced to the point that there is minimal risk. He said opening the coast to oil and natural gas exploration could create thousands of jobs.....Complete Story

"Shell, BP Profits May Drop Most In Five Years On Oil"
Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc, Europe’s largest oil companies, may post the biggest drop in quarterly earnings in at least five years after the recession dragged down crude prices.

U.S. oil futures averaged $43.31 a barrel in the quarter, 56 percent lower than a year earlier, after plunging from a record $147.27 reached in July. The companies responded by shelving projects and demanding price cuts from suppliers. BP may scale back its joint Sunrise oil-sands project in Alberta to cut expenses, while Shell has said industry costs could fall as much as 50 percent.

“We are going to see a very substantial drop in income and there’s very little they can do about costs in the short-term,” said Colin Morton, who helps manage about $2 billion, including BP and Shell stock, at Rensburg Fund Management in Leeds, England. “It’s going to be quite a tough period.”.....Your keyword


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OPEC General Sec. See No Cuts But Schlumberger Does

"OPEC Secretary General Doesn't See New Oil Cuts in May"
OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem El-Badri said he doesn't expect the oil cartel to cut production when the group meets next month, despite signs of even weaker crude demand and swelling oil inventory in big energy consuming nations. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries needs to fully implement an agreement announced back in December to remove 4.2 million barrels a day from world markets before embarking on more reductions, El-Badri said. "We need to take all that off the market before we can talk about new cuts....Complete Story

"Oil Falls on Speculation Slow Recovery Will Limit Energy Demand"
Crude oil fell for the first time in five days in New York on speculation a slow recovery from the global recession may limit demand. The economy in the U.S., the world’s largest oil consumer, will continue to contract “for some time,” Lawrence Summers, director of the White House National Economic Council, said yesterday. Increased output by non OPEC producers has left the market oversupplied by about 720,000 barrels a day, said Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil. “It’s difficult to see a really sustained rally in oil,” said Toby Hassall, research analyst at Commodity Warrants Australia Pty in Sydney. “There are so many downside risks to the global economy....Complete Story

"Schlumberger CFO: Another Headcount Reduction Likely"
Schlumberger's Chief Financial Officer, Simon Avat, said Friday the oilfield services major will likely reduce its employment levels in the coming months, Dow Jones reports. The world's largest oilfield services company, Schlumberger cut some 5,000, or 6%, of its 84,000 global employees in the first round of layoffs announced in January amid a worldwide downturn in oil and gas activity and weakened crude prices. In the last five years, Schlumberger, whose principal offices are in Houston, Paris and The Hague, recruited 11,613 engineers from 140 countries and 8,754 specialists....Complete Story


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Conoco-Phillips Reports 80 Percent Decline In Profits

ConocoPhillips said Thursday its first quarter profit tumbled 80 percent from a year ago as sharply lower crude and natural gas prices walloped results at the nation's third largest oil company.

But the results easily beat Wall Street expectations and Conoco shares rose 3.6 percent, or $1.36, to $39.75. The Houston based company said net income for the January-March period amounted to $840 million, or 56 cents per share, versus $4.14 billion, or $2.62 per share, a year earlier.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected earnings of 42 cents a share, on average. Revenue fell 44 percent to $30.7 billion from $54.9 billion a year ago.

ConocoPhillips was the first of the major oil companies to report first-quarter results, which as a whole are expected to be the worst in years as the global economic downturn saps demand for energy. After peaking around $150 in July, the price of crude tumbled....Complete Story


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Crude Oil Struggles At The $50 Level, Unemployment Numbers Weigh On Demand

June crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. But higher unemployment numbers may weigh on demand and lower than expected numbers from UPS this morning look to weigh on the entire market.

Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 45.11 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 51.99 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Today's daily pivot point, our line in the sand is 48.48

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.18.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 51.99.

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 46.72.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 45.11.

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The June Dollar was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 84.72 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June extends Monday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 88.26 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 87.22.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 88.26.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.97.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.70.

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The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight [Index was up 6.80 points. at 843.60 as of 5:58 AM CST.] due to short covering as it consolidates above the 20 day moving average crossing at 833.00. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short term top appears to have been posted. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 833.00 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June renews the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target.

The daily pivot point is 844.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 867.00.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 833.00.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 802.60.

The June S&P 500 Index was up 6.80 points. at 843.60 as of 5:58 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.


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Crude Oil Closes Lower, Pressured By Dollar and Stocks

June crude oil closed down $4.02 at $48.45 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session low today, hit a fresh five week low and saw a bearish downside "breakout" from a wedge pattern on the daily chart. Crude oil bears have regained the near term technical advantage. A big drop in the stock market today and a stronger U.S. dollar helped to pressure crude oil.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 71 points at 87.00 today. Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh four week high today. Bulls have regained the near term technical advantage.

The U.S. stock indexes closed solidly lower today and near their session lows. The bulls faded today and need to show fresh power soon, or else the recent uptrends on the daily charts will begin to "roll over" and start to produce bearish chart signals.

A heavy slate of corporate earnings reports are due out this week and traders will examine them very closely. It's likely that most of those reports will encourage the stock index bears.

Bears Seem To Have Term Advantage On Crude Oil

May crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. Closes above March's high crossing at 54.66 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the current consolidation pattern.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.

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The June S&P 500 index was steady to slightly lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near term.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 824.30 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Friday's pivot point, the line in the sand, is 856.25

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 867.00.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 831.70.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 824.30.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 0.10 points. at 861.40 as of 5:58 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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The June Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24 would open the door for additional short covering gains during April.

If June renews Monday's decline, last Monday's low crossing at 84.10 is the next downside target. Closes below last Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is last Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.


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Crude Rises On Jobless Claims, Petrobras Seeks Additional Rigs

"Crude Oil Rises After Unexpected Decline in U.S. Jobless Claims"
Crude oil rose after the number of U.S. workers claiming jobless benefits unexpectedly fell last week, indicating the pace of economic decline may be slowing. Oil climbed as much as 2.5 percent after the Labor Department reported that claims decreased by 53,000 to 610,000 in the week ended April 11, the fewest since January. China, the biggest oil consumer after the U.S., grew 6.1 percent during the first quarter, the slowest pace in almost 10 years....Complete Story

"Petrobras Seeks New Rigs, Marches On With Expansion Plan"
Petrobras will start seeking bids for new rigs in the next couple of months as it marches on with its ambitious five-year investment plan. The Brazilian state energy giant in January announced it planned to invest $174.4 billion in 2009-13, including $28.6 billion this year -- an increase from $23 billion in 2008, which is unusual as global oil majors including U.S. firms Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips are cutting back on investment....Complete Story

"Total, China In Venezuela Oil Talks"
France's Total, China National Petroleum Corp and Petroleos de Venezuela are in advanced talks about a deal to produce and refine Venezuelan oil to send to China, the Wall Street Journal reported. Senior officials from all three groups plan to meet in Caracas next month to discuss a possible multi billion dollar accord, the paper said on Wednesday, citing people close to the talks.
The 20 year venture could see 200,000 barrels of oil a day shipped to China possibly starting in 2013....Complete Story


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Crude Higher On Short Covering, Signals Turn Bearish

May crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. However, stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Closes above March's high crossing at 54.66 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the current consolidation pattern.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.

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The June S&P 500 index was steady to slightly lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 819.51 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target.

Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 844.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 861.30.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 831.70.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 819.51.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 1.10 points. at 847.40 as of 6:00 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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The June Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's decline, last Monday's low crossing at 84.10 is the next downside target. Closes below last Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24 would open the door for additional short covering gains during April.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is last Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

Crude Oil Higher Overnight, Will Equities Bring Oil Down?

May crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline.

However, stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Closes above March's high crossing at 54.66 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the current consolidation pattern.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.

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The June S&P 500 index was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI remain overbought.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 816.28 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Wednesday's daily pivot point is 845, weekly pivot is 837.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 861.30.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 833.84.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 816.28.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 1.10 points. at 839.20 as of 6:01 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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The June Dollar was lower overnight and is poised to extend Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's decline, last Monday's low crossing at 84.10 is the next downside target. Closes below last Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24 would open the door for additional short covering gains during April.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is last Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

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10:30 AM ET. Apr 10..US Energy Dept Oil Inventories

.....Crude Oil Stocks (previous 361M)

.....Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (expected +2.1M; previous +1.6M)

.....Gasoline Stocks (previous 217.4M)

.....Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (expected -500K; previous +656K)

.....Distillate Stocks (previous 140.7M)

.....Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (expected -700K; previous -3.3M)

.....Refinery Usage (expected 82.1%; previous 81.8%)

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Crude Oil Higher Overnight On Short Covering

May crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If May extends last Thursday's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 then January's high crossing at 58.31 are the next upside targets. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.

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The June S&P 500 index was steady to lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 813.68 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 861.30.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 830.56.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 813.66.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 2.10 points. at 851.90 as of 5:58 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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The June Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

If June renews last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 86.61 is the next upside target. Closes below last Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is last Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

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4:30 PM ET. Apr 10...API Oil Industry Report

.....................Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous +3.2M)

.....................Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -451K)

.....................Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +1.7M)

.....................Refinery Runs (previous 81.8%)

IEA Cuts Demand Forecast to Five Year Low, Sends Crude Oil Lower

"Crude Oil Falls After IEA Cuts Demand Forecast to Five Year Low"

Crude oil fell the most in two weeks after an International Energy Agency report showed that 2009 demand may slump to the lowest level in five years as factories shut and car sales tumble amid a global recession.

Consumption will decline 2.4 million barrels a day this year, about the same amount that Iraq produces, to 83.4 million barrels a day, according to the IEA report on April 10. U.S. crude oil supplies are at their highest since July 1993, the Energy Department said on April 8....Complete Story

May crude oil closed up $2.65 at $52.03 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today. The key "outside markets" were mixed for crude during the day, as the U.S. dollar was stronger and equities prices were also stronger. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading conditions.

The U.S. stock indexes closed solidly higher today as the indexes closed at bullish weekly high closes and hit multi-week highs. The bulls today did gain fresh upside near term technical momentum. There are now early clues that major market lows are in place.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 33 points at 86.04 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a bullish weekly high close. Bulls have regained the slight near-term technical advantage.

Crude Oil Falls Overnight, Trading Below 20 Day Moving Average

May crude oil was lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline and is trading below the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.50.

Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If May renews last week's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 then January's high crossing at 58.31 are the next upside targets.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is the overnight low crossing at 50.00.
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26.

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The June Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it extends Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.66 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted and would signal that the c-wave of an a-b-c correction off March's low is underway.

If June renews the decline off last week's high, March's low crossing at 83.15 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.66.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

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The June S&P 500 index was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 793.60 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 847.90.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 816.59.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 793.60.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 10.90 points. at 819.50 as of 5:50 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the March S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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4:30 PM ET........Apr 3 API Oil Industry Report

..................Crude Stocks (Net Change) (expected +2.3M; previous +3.27M)

..................Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (expected -700K; previous -451K)

..................Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (expected -200K; previous +1.77M)

..................Refinery Runs (expected 82.1%; previous 81.8%)

Crude Oil Opens Sharply Lower Monday Morning

May crude oil was higher overnight, above the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.81 but has opened sharply lower this morning.

Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Near term is the key here, we still see crude falling back to the $45 dollar area.

If May extends last week's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 then January's high crossing at 58.31 are the next upside targets.

Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.81.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.45.

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The June Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends last Thursday's decline below the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.09. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends the decline off last week's high, March's low crossing at 83.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.82 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.09.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.82.

First support is the overnight low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.