Crude Oil Bulls and Bears Appear To Be On Level Playing Field

May crude oil closed down $2.17 at $50.07 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Trading has turned choppy. The key "outside markets" were mixed for crude during the day, as the U.S. dollar was sharply lower but equities prices were also weaker. Bulls and bears are still on a level near term technical playing field amid choppy trading conditions.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down 135 points at 84.72 today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls faded badly today. Bears have regained the slight near term technical advantage.

The U.S. stock indexes closed mixed today and nearer their session highs after being under solid pressure in the early going. The bulls still have some upside near term technical momentum, but need to show more power soon. There are early clues that major market lows are in place.

Crude Oil Opens Lower Monday Morning

May crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last Thursday's rally.

Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If May extends last Thursday's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 then January's high crossing at 58.31 are the next upside targets.

Monday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 51.50.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.

Crude oil appears to be range bound at this point in the 47 to 54 area. Most traders should be looking to go long on all dips into the 47 to 48 area while less conservative traders may also want to short crude in the 53 to 54 area.

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The June S&P 500 index was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 7.50 points. at 845.10 as of 5:53 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 808.32 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Our SP 500 pivot point, our line in the sand is 843.50. If we break below 843 in the regular trading session we will go short for our SP day trade.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 854.50.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 822.91.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 808.32.

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The June Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 86.61 is the next upside target. Closes below last Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 86.22.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is last Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

This Week's Chart For Crude Oil

Crude Oil Closes Higher On Short Covering and Rally In Stocks

May crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near term. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If May renews last week's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is today's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26.

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The June Dollar closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.53 signaling that a short term low has been posted. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.53 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If June resumes last week's decline, March's low crossing at 83.14 is the next downside target.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 86.13.
Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 86.61.

First support is Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

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The June S&P 500 index closed higher on Wednesday and above the 10 day moving average crossing at 817.04 as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 798.30 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June renews the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 847.90.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 867.50.

First support is today's low crossing at 802.60.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 798.30.

Crude Supplies Grow Less Than Expected

"Crude Supplies Grow Less Than Expected"
Oil prices rose Wednesday as stocks opened higher, and after a government report showed supplies of crude increased less than expected. In its weekly inventory report, the Energy Information Administration said crude stocks increased by 1.7 million barrels in the week ended April 3. Analysts expected an increase of 2.3 million barrels of crude oil, according to a consensus estimate of industry analysts....Complete Story

Crude Oil Extends Tuesday's Decline In Overnight Trading

May crude oil was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline below the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.63.

Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If May renews last week's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 then January's high crossing at 58.31 are the next upside targets.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 49.79

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.63
Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 53.90

First support is the overnight low crossing at 47.37
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26

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10:30 AM ET. Apr 3...US Energy Dept Oil Inventories

.....................Crude Oil Stocks (previous 359.4M)

.....................Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (previous +2.84M)

.....................Gasoline Stocks (previous 216.79M)

.....................Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous +2.22M)

.....................Distillate Stocks (previous 144.1M)

.....................Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +221K)

.....................Refinery Usage (previous 81.7%)


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The June Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it extends Monday's rally and is trading above resistance marked by the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.53.

Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.53 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted and would confirm that the c-wave of an a-b-c correction off March's low is underway.

If June renews the decline off last week's high, March's low crossing at 83.15 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 86.13.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

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The June S&P 500 index was lower overnight and trading below initial support marked by the 10 day moving average crossing at 816.17 signaling that a short term top has been posted.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 797.93 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 847.90.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 797.93.
Second support is last week's low crossing at 775.70.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 4.40 points. at 809.60 as of 5:56 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the March S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

Crude Oil Close Lower On Tuesday, Continues Lower In After Market Trading

May crude oil closed lower on Tuesday due to profit taking as it extends Monday's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday.

Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If May renews last week's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 49.79, we will look to go short if we open below 49.79.

First support is today's low crossing at 48.89.
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26.

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The June Dollar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends Monday's rally. Today's close above the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.28 tempers the near term bearish outlook. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday.

Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.66 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If June resumes last week's decline, March's low crossing at 83.14 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.66.
Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 86.61.

First support is Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

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The June S&P 500 index closed lower on Tuesday and below the 10 day moving average crossing at 815.14 signaling that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 793.37 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June extends the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 847.90.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 867.50.

First support is today's low crossing at 812.00.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 793.37.

Oil Industry Stock Market Winners and Losers

Winners

Atlas Pipeline Partners......7.78%
Cimarex Energy..............5.06%
Edge Petroleum..............4.55%
Parallel Petroleum...........3.75%
Tesoro Petroleum............3.46%

Losers

Meridian Resource..........-8.00%
ENSCO International........-7.55%
Parker Drilling..............-7.08%
McMoRan Exploration.......-6.43%
Dawson Geophysical........-5.84%

Change based on the last 2 days of trading

Crude Oil Higher Overnight, Falling At Friday's Open

May crude oil was higher overnight as it extends Thursday's rally above the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.95.

Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If May extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 54.66 then January's high crossing at 58.31 are the next downside targets.

Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.23.
Second support is Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26.

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The June Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends Thursday's decline below the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.05.

Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Multiple closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.05 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

Closes above Monday's high crossing at 86.61 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.09.
Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 86.61.

First support is Thursday's low crossing at 84.46.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

Crude Oil Extends This Week's Decline

May crude oil closed lower on Wednesday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 49.60 as it extends this week's decline.

The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If May extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 43.74 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.77 would temper the near term bearish outlook.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 49.60.
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.77.

First support is today's low crossing at 47.26.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 43.74.

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The June Dollar closed higher on Wednesday due to short covering as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's rally, the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.55 is the next upside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.55 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Closes below the weekly uptrend line crossing near 83.70 would confirm that a major top in the Dollar has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree decline this spring.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.55.
Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 86.61.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.89.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 83.14.

Crude Oil Moving Lower, Below 20 Day Moving Average

May crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates below the 20 day moving average crossing at 49.61.

Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If May extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 43.74 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.78 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 49.61.
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.78.

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 47.77.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 44.72.

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And because the crude oil/dollar trade is on........
The June Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates below the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.55. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.55 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.90 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.55.
Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 86.61.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.90.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

10:30 AM ET. Mar 27 US Energy Dept Oil Inventories

....................Crude Oil Stocks (previous 356.5M)

....................Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (expected +2.6M; previous +3.3M)

....................Gasoline Stocks (previous 214.5M)

....................Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (expected -1.1M; previous -1.14M)

....................Distillate Stocks (previous 143.9M)

....................Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (expected -500K; previous -1.58M)

....................Refinery Usage (expected 82.2%; previous 82%)

Crude Oil Should Open Higher Wednesday, Lower Prices Still Likely Near Term

May crude oil closed higher on Tuesday due to short covering but remains below the 20 day moving average crossing at 49.53.

The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday.

Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If May extends Monday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 43.74 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.78 would temper the near term bearish outlook.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 52.25.
Second resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is today's low crossing at 47.77.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 43.74.

And since the crude-dollar trade seems to be on......

The June Dollar closed lower on Tuesday due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Monday's rally but remains above the 10 day moving average. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's rally, the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.71 is the next upside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.71 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Closes below the weekly uptrend line crossing near 83.00 would confirm that a major top in the Dollar has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree decline this spring.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 86.61.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.71.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.79.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 83.14.

Oil Rises on Stock Rally, Caps Biggest Monthly Gain Since May

"Oil Rises on Stock Rally, Caps Biggest Monthly Gain Since May"
Crude oil rose, heading for its biggest monthly gain since May, as equities increased and a weaker dollar enhanced the appeal of commodities. Oil climbed as much as 3.3 percent after U.S. and European stocks rebounded....Complete Story

SocGen Technical Analyst Says "Oil May Fall to $28 a Barrel"
Crude oil is set to drop to $28 a barrel in New York in the second quarter, according to technical analysis by Societe Generale SA. Prices may rally until meeting resistance at $71 a barrel and....Complete Story

"Petrobras Invests Heavily in Offshore Drilling"
With massive deepwater finds in the pre-salt layer, as well as the Campos and Santos Basins, Brazilian state-owned Petrobras pledged an investment of $174.4 billion for 2009 to 2013. With a firm commitment to....Complete Story

"Kuwait Raises Oil Output Capacity"
OPEC member Kuwait has boosted its oil production capacity to three million barrels per day and aims to raise it to four million by 2020, a top oil executive said on Monday. "We have the capability to....Complete Story

Crude Oil Moving South, Hinting That Short Term High Is In

Pre market Monday morning May crude oil was already down 1.85 breaking through 1st support of 51.83. May crude oil closed lower on Friday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of this month's rally. The low range close set the stage for the lower opening we will get today.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 48.97 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If May extends this month's rally, January's high crossing at 58.31 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 54.66.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 58.31.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.83.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 48.97.

Crude Oil Trading Signals May Be Turning Bearish

May crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of this month's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 48.97 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If May extends this month's rally, January's high crossing at 58.31 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 54.66.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 58.31.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.83.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 48.97.

How High Can Crude Oil Rally Given The World Economy

In our new video on the crude oil market we see how this market has been creeping up in value and in now trading over $50 a barrel. The question is "How high can crude oil rally given the world economy?"

Just Click Here To Watch Crude Oil Video

The potential is that crude can go higher as the United States is addicted to oil and cannot at this stage run without it. The same goes for most other countries. Whatever the arguments are for crude oil we think you will find this short video of interest.

The short video outlines the path for crude oil and is free to watch.

We hope you learn something from this video. Feel free to give us your feedback on what you think is going to happen to this market in the future.

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The direction of the S&P 500 is such a big part of our daily research for trading crude oil that I want to include this video on the S&P on the rally we have been experiencing.

Take a look at this short video and see if the rally in the S & P 500 market is for real, or if it's just a rally in a bigger bear market.

Just Click Here To Watch SP 500 Video

Our brand new video details what we think is going on in the equity markets. We also want to share with you the key S & P 500 number that if broken will turbo charge this market.

The video is, as always, free to watch. Please feel free to leave a comment, your comments and feedback are always welcome.

Crude Oil Looks To Open Lower

May crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If May extends this month's rally, January's high crossing at 58.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 48.67 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 54.66.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 58.31.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.27.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 48.67.

Pre market crude oil is already trading down in the 52.69 area. We are going short for a scalp trade against the trend as we look for crude oil to follow the SP 500 down at the opening. Don't get stuck in this trade, we will probably take our profits at the 10 day moving average 51.27.

Crude Oil Closes Higher, Market Conditions Are Overbought

May crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If May extends this month's rally, January's high crossing at $58.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at $48.67 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at $54.66.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at $58.31.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at $51.27.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at $48.67.

The Battle Insues, Obama and Oil Industry

"Oil, Gasoline Rise as Gains for Equities Signal Strengthening Fuel Demand"
Crude oil rose to the highest in almost four months and gasoline gained as an advancing U.S. stock market signaled that fuel demand will increase....Complete Story

"Obama Revives Battle with Oil Industry"
The Obama administration's push to raise taxes on the oil industry is reigniting a battle the industry fought and won last year....Complete Story

"Petrobras May Compete For Iraqi Oil Deal"
Petrobras could join a U.S. firm and two European companies in competing for a contract to develop Iraq's Nahr Bin Umar oil field....Complete Story

"US Company Halts More Oil Rigs In Venezuela"
U.S oil driller Helmerich & Payne said Wednesday it is continuing to halt operations in Venezuela due to delayed payments from Venezuela's state oil company....Complete Story

Crude Oil Overnight, Do Traders Expect A Lower Inventory Number Today?

May crude oil closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this month's rally.

The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If May extends this month's rally, January's high crossing at $58.31 is the next upside target.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at $48.34 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $54.20.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at $58.31.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at $50.65.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at $48.34.

10:30 AM ET. Mar 20 EIA National Gas Inventories, in billion cubic feet

....................Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 1651)

....................Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous –30)