Crude Oil Consolidates Below Broken Support

March crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates below broken support marked by December's low, which crosses at $38.00.

Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $39.75 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If March extends this year's decline, psychological support crossing at $30.00 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at $37.11. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $39.75.

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at $33.55.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $30.00.

Crude Oil Market Key Events For Thursday

10:30 AM ET. Feb 13 EIA Natural Gas Inventories, in billion cubic feet

Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 2020)

Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous –159)

11:00 AM ET. Feb 13 US Energy Dept Oil Inventories

Crude Oil Stocks (previous 350.78M)

Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (expected +2.7M; previous +4.71M)

Gasoline Stocks (previous 217.55M)

Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (expected -400K; previous -2.66M)

Distillate Stocks (previous 141.56M)

Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (expected -1M; previous -1.03M)

Refinery Usage (expected 81.6%; previous 81.6%)

Crude Oil's Low Range Close Sets The Stage For Possible Lower Opening On Thursday

March crude oil closed lower on Wednesday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $40.46 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at $48.59 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If March renews this month's decline, psychological support crossing at $30.00 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at $37.57.

Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $40.14.

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at $33.55.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $30.00.

Oil Futures Fall Ahead Of Thursday Inventory Numbers

"Oil Futures for April Fall on Expectations of Further U.S. Inventory Gain"
Crude oil for April delivery fell on speculation that a government report tomorrow will show U.S. supplies climbed for the 19th time in 21 weeks as the recession cuts demand....Complete Story

"Oil Companies Bet on Swift Price Rebound Has Its Risks"
Major oil companies are promising to maintain investment through the current price dip, but the risk is growing that a prolonged slump could stymie their plans....Complete Story

"How Much Is Oil Really Worth?"
Is crude oil in the mid $30s per barrel, or in the low-$40s? Both, it turns out, which makes it increasingly difficult to figure out the headline price of crude, the world's heaviest traded commodity....Complete Story

"Sakhalin 2 Project Starts Russia's First LNG Plant"
Sakhalin Energy, the Gazprom-led consortium developing the Sakhalin 2 project in Russia's Far East, Wednesday started up Russia's first LNG liquefaction plant....Complete Story

Crude Oil Slightly Higher Overnight On Short Covering

March crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline.

Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $40.16 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If March extends this year's decline, psychological support crossing at $30.00 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at $37.61.

Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $40.16.

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at $33.55.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $30.00.


4:30 PM ET. Feb 13 API Oil Industry Report

Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous +1.99M)

Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -2.92M)

Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous -853K)

Refinery Runs (previous 81.9%)

Crude Oil Oversold, Is The Short Term Low In?

March crude oil closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. If March renews this month's decline, psychological support crossing at 30.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 40.46 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 48.59 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 38.19. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 40.45. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 33.55. Second support is psychological support crossing at 30.00.

Transocean Profits Fall, China To Prop Up Russia With Loan

"Oil Falls Below $35 as Deepening Recession Slows Global Demand for Fuels"
Crude oil fell below $35 a barrel in New York on speculation a deepening recession in the U.S., Europe and Asia will reduce fuel demand....Complete Story

"Transocean's Profit Falls as Tumbling Energy Prices Reduce Value of Rigs"
Transocean, the world’s largest offshore oil driller, said quarterly profit fell for the first time in more than two years after tumbling energy prices cut the value of some rigs and well-management services....Complete Story

"Eyes on Saudis As OPEC Weighs Output Cuts"
As OPEC ponders its next move at its March 15 meeting, analysts said the scope for further output cuts by the Saudis may be limited by domestic energy needs for natural gas to cool the desert kingdom as spring approaches....Complete Story

"Russia, China Ink $25B Oil Loan Deal"
Russia signed its biggest ever energy deal with China on Tuesday, under which its oil companies will receive $25 billion in loans in exchange for long-term crude supplies....Complete Story

IEA, Exxon and Russia All Eye The Future Of Oil Inventory

"IEA Chief Urges OPEC Against More Output Cuts"
The International Energy Agency on Monday urged OPEC nations against cutting oil production further when they meet next month....Complete Story

"ExxonMobil To Carry On Spending Despite Oil Price"
U.S. oil giant Exxon Mobil Corp will not cut back on investments in new crude production, despite the collapse in oil prices, the company's regional head of exploration said on Monday....Complete Story

"Russia Studies Large Crude Inventory"
Russia is working towards creating a state reserve to buy crude from producers when prices are low, potentially removing up to 16 million tonnes of Russian oil from export markets....Complete Story

NYMEX Trading and Processing Schedule

Monday February 16, 2008 (President's Day)

* NYMEX and COMEX trading floors will be closed.
* The DME intraday settlement price (OSP) to be published at the normal
time of 3:30 AM for February 16 calendar date. No post-close
settlement to be published.
* NYMEX and COMEX products on CME Globex and NYMEX ClearPort (including
DME Direct) will open for trading/trade submission for the February 19
trade date until the trading halt at 5:15 PM.
* Day/session orders entered on CME Globex or DME Direct will be for the
February 17 trade date and will continue until Tuesday's close at
5:15 PM.
* NYMEX trading at settlement (TAS) products on CME Globex will be
available for trading for the February 17 trade date.
* NYMEX TMS will be available for trade management for February 19 trade
date.
* NYMEX cleared trades API will be available.
* Markets will not be settled and settlements will not be published, as
February 16 is not a trade or processing date.
* NYMEX intraday files will not be produced, no clearing will occur, and
no clearing functionality will be available.
* Daily SPAN and erosion files will not be produced (an additional
erosion file will be produced on February 17).
* Options cannot be exercised.
* There will not be any allocation of energy and metal deliveries or
delivery notices, and related forms will not be accepted.
* The first normal intraday file generated on calendar date February 17
will contain trades from calendar date February 16.
* NYMEX and COMEX products on CME Globex and NYMEX ClearPort (including
DME Direct) all reopen for trading/trade submission at 6:00 PM
(February 19 Trade Date).


Tuesday February 17, 2008

* Normal schedule resumes.
* Banking for February 15th clearing cycle will occur.
* Large trader reporting for NYMEX and COMEX for February 15th trade date
for any clearing members not holding DME positions are due by 8:00 AM.
* "Double Erosion" will occur to account for the February 18 Peak Day.
Two erosion files will be produced.

Crude Oil Futures Price Updates

Just click on the graph to enlarge......