Trade ideas, analysis and low risk set ups for commodities, Bitcoin, gold, silver, coffee, the indexes, options and your retirement. We'll help you keep your emotions out of your trading.
Companies working with the state of Alaska to develop a major natural gas pipeline estimated Friday that the project would cost $20 billion to $41 billion, depending on the route. The Alaska Pipeline Project seeks to move natural gas from the harsh North Slope to market in Alaska, through Canada and to the Lower 48.
The high end of the estimate is at least a billion more than earlier thought, but project officials believe the pipeline is economically viable and could start carrying gas in about 2020. More details of the plan came in a filing Friday with federal regulators, the first step toward an "open season," when companies behind the project will court gas producers and try to secure commitments for shipping deals.
TransCanada Corp., based in Calgary, Alberta, is working with Irving, Texas based Exxon Mobil Corp. to advance the project. The state of Alaska has promised to reimburse up to $500 million of eligible costs. A rival project by Britain's BP PLC and Houston-based ConocoPhillips is also moving ahead, though its difficult for many, given the economics involved, to see more than one project going forward.
Tony Palmer, TransCanada vice president of Alaska Development, told reporters Friday that he believes the best and most effective way to bring the project forward is to form an alliance between the state, TransCanada and the North Slope's current major players, Exxon Mobil, BP and ConocoPhillips. It's during open season when shippers interested in moving gas to markets in Alaska and outside the state indicate which their preferred route.....Read the entire article.
Crude oil closed lower on Friday and spiked below support marked by December's low crossing at 72.45. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signal that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March extends today's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.74 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.60. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.74. First support is today's low crossing at 72.43. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.70.
Natural gas closed lower on Friday and tested the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.114. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.560 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is broken trading range support crossing at 5.327. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.456. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 5.060. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919.
The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Friday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways prices are possible near term. If March extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 79.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.98 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 79.65. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 79.71. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 78.48. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.98.
Crude oil rose for the first time in four days after a government report showed that the U.S. economy expanded at the fastest pace in six years, signaling demand may rise in the world’s biggest energy market. Oil climbed as much as 1.6 percent after the Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product grew by 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter, exceeding the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. It was the best performance since the third quarter of 2003. Oil has lost 6.9 percent in January, the first monthly decline since July.
“It’s a good GDP number, and frankly that’s what the market needed to see,” said Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis. “If there are any doubters out there that the economy is not in recovery, this should quash that.” Crude oil for March delivery increased 71 cents, or 1 percent, to $74.35 a barrel at 10:10 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, it touched $74.82.
Oil has fallen 12 percent since reaching a 15-month high of $83.95 a barrel on Jan. 11 amid concern the U.S. government will limit trading by banks and that China will take further steps to cool its economy. China is the fastest-growing energy market. “We might have gotten more of a bounce off this GDP number if the Chinese weren’t raising the reserve requirements for the banks and slowing lending,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in Chicago.....Read the entire article.
Sometimes is not about what you say, it's about what you do not say. In the big Fed statement yesterday, one lone rouge inflation hawk dared to stand up and say, Hey guys, it is our job to worry about inflation. The lack of a comment about the housing market left traders wondering whether it was a glaring omission or perhaps it was an admission to the fact that the Fed is under a lot of political pressure. The Fed also changed their wording on inflation prospects from inflation would remained subdued for some time to it "likely" would remained subdued.
Ah yes, the changing face of politics where everything remains the same. Obama tried to move to the right though overall, at times he seemed a bit contradictory. Obama tried to reach out to the energy sector by embracing drill, drill, drill, nuclear power and clean coal technology as long as we at same time have a lot of money for “big green”. Oh yes you have to take care of the "big green” lobby as they spent millions to put him in office and they expect billions of green dollars back in return. And don’t forget he also said he would repeal "tax breaks” for oil companies and give tax breaks to big green. The Robin Hood energy plan: take from the rich and then run the energy companies and then give their money to the poor inefficient green energy companies.
Chevron Corporation reported earnings of $3.07 billion ($1.53 per share-diluted) for the fourth quarter 2009, compared with $4.90 billion ($2.44 per share-diluted) in the fourth quarter 2008. Earnings in the 2008 quarter included a gain of approximately $600 million on an upstream asset exchange transaction. Foreign currency effects reduced earnings in the 2009 quarter by $67 million, compared with a benefit to income of $478 million a year earlier.
Full year 2009 earnings were $10.48 billion ($5.24 per share-diluted), down 56 percent from $23.93 billion ($11.67 per share-diluted) in 2008.
Sales and other operating revenues in the fourth quarter 2009 were $48 billion, compared with $43 billion in the year ago quarter. For the full year 2009, sales and other operating revenues were $167 billion, versus $265 billion in 2008. The decrease in the twelve month period was primarily due to lower prices for crude oil, natural gas and refined products.
"Earnings decreased in 2009 as a result of lower crude oil and natural gas prices and a decline in refined product sales margins, driven by a weak global economy," said Chevron’s Chairman and CEO, John Watson. "In this challenging environment, Chevron's successes in operational reliability and cost management made valuable contributions to our bottom line. Our financial strength enabled continued investment in our excellent portfolio of capital and exploratory projects and an increase in the annual dividend on our common shares for the 22nd consecutive year.....Read the entire article.
Crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 72.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.73 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.
Crude oil pivot point for Friday is 73.69
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.73 Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.80
First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 72.65 Second support is December's low crossing at 72.45
Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If March extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.564 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.
Natural gas pivot point for Friday is 5.152
First resistance is broken trading range support crossing at 5.327 Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.465
First support is Thursday's low crossing at 5.060 Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919
The U.S. Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If March extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.96 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 79.33 Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.44 Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.96
Commodities move with great volatility but ended up with little changes Thursday. The benchmark contract for crude oil plunged to as low as 72.93 before recovering to 73.64, compare with Wednesday's close at 73.67. While heating oil price also closed almost flat gasoline slid -1.1% to 19.174 as higher than expect jobless claims data implied weaker gasoline consumption.
Initial jobless claims reduced to 470K in the week ended January 23, compared with an expected drop to 452K, from 482K a week ago. The 4 week average increased +10K to 456K while continuing claims dipped -57K to 4602K, the lowest level in a year. We believe the overall trend continues to suggest improvement in the job market, though at a pace slower than previously anticipated.
Headline of durable goods orders disappointed the market by recording only +0.3% mom in December after dropping -0.4% a month ago. However, the reading with transportations excluded showed a +0.9% increase on monthly basis. November's reading was also revised up slightly to +2.1%.
Strength in USD and JPY indicated investors gave up higher-yield investment and sought safe assets yesterday. This was probably a major reason for the softness in commodity prices. The euro slumped against the dollar and the yen as investors doubted if Greece can reduce its huge deficit without the help from outside. The 16 nationed single currency fell to a 6 month low against USD on concerns that the Greek problem will spread to other high deficit economies in Europe.....Read the entire article.
Crude oil closed slightly higher due to short covering on Thursday but remains below the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 73.95. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signal that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March extends today's decline, December's low crossing at 72.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.11 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.
Crude oil pivot point for Thursday evening is 73.77
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.33 Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.11
First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 72.65 Second support is December's low crossing at 72.45
Natural gas closed lower on Thursday and tested the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.114. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If March extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.589 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
Thursday evenings natural gas pivot point is 5.166
First resistance is broken trading range support crossing at 5.327 Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.504
First support is today's low crossing at 5.060 Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919
The March Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways prices are possible near term.
If March extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 79.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.91 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 79.27 Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 79.71
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.27 Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.91
Oil may rise to $79.50 a barrel after holding above its 200 day moving average, according to a technical analysis by Lind-Waldock & Co. in Chicago.
Prices will probably “bounce” next week after March oil futures dropped for 10 of the past 12 sessions without sliding below support at the 200 day level, said Richard Ilczyszyn, a senior market strategist with Lind-Waldock, a division of MF Global Ltd. Oil dropped $1.04, or 1.4 percent, to $73.67 yesterday, the lowest settlement since Dec. 21.
“The 200 day moving average held, which is a sign that prices are headed back up,” Ilczyszyn said in a telephone interview.
The contract will next hit resistance at the 50 day and 21 day moving averages, which were $78.33 and $79.41, respectively, yesterday, Ilczyszyn said.
“If the market closes below $72, there is going to be a big flood,” Ilczyszyn said. “There would be repercussions across the board and we would see big drops in both gasoline and heating oil.”
A settlement below $72, which last occurred on Oct. 7 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, would be a signal for the contract to test $67.99, the price on Sept. 25, he said.
The stock indexes have been trading very choppy making it difficult for swing/trend traders. It’s during times like this when seasoned traders rise above the herd of average traders.
If you only trade one strategy like swing trading or trend trading then you are likely finding it difficult to make money right now. On the other hand, day traders are having a blast right now as they take advantage of the powerful intraday rallies and sell offs.
I personally like swing trading but during times like this, when I know it will not work, I have to switch my strategy to day trading and focus on the 60 minute and 5 minute charts.
SP500 Index Fund – Intraday Setup I posted this chart earlier this week and I want to be sure everyone takes something away from this chart as I believe it shows a perfect low risk setup for shorting the market, or you could buy a reverse fund which goes up as the market moves down.
At first glance this chart is noisy, but if you simply focus on the all the different color analysis separately you will notice how simple trading can be and what you should be looking for.
Red Analysis: 1. Overall market trend is down so we are looking for a short trade, signs of weakness. 2. First we see a light volume test of the previous high set earlier in the day. The low volume indicates there are not many participants in the move up and that is a weak sign. 3. Between 14:30- 15:30 we notice the price start to drift higher on very light volume. Also, the price moved up into a resistance level. This to me is a perfect setup. 4. You would sell short or buy a reverse index fund at this point hoping for the market to start selling. You could also wait until it started to drop before taking a position but when a chart looks this good I try to get in at the highest price possible.
Blue Analysis: 1. The price starts to drop forming several small bear flags going into 14:30 before bouncing. Also note the volume began to rise as more selling was happening. This tells us that trading activity is predominately selling and that we should also focus on shorting when the time is right. 2. Again, the price starts to drop forming several small bear flags going from 15:00 – 15:45 before bouncing. Also note the volume began to rise as more sellers took part in this short term trend.
Black Analysis: 1. This shows more or less the resistance level, area to short the index and the nice trend down.
Gold GLD ETF Trading Gold has been under selling pressure since early December. That powerful drop and the chart pattern it has formed will generally resolves itself after an ABC retrace pattern. I have drawn this on the chart which is what I think will happen in the near term. This daily chart of GLD ETF has a small 4 day bear flag and bearish reversal candle which is pointing to lower prices in the near term.
Silver SLV ETF Trading Silver has a funky looking chart. It has formed a large megaphone pattern and possible head & shoulders pattern. Both are bearish and if we use the Head & Shoulders to calculate where silver could end up trading if it continues to break down, then $14.00 would be a level to look for a bounce.
Natural Gas UNG Fund The natural gas fund UNG has been in a down trend for over a year and the recent drop looks to be the start of another sell off. This could possibly form a reverse head & shoulders pattern with this drop moving UNG down to the $8.75 – $9.00 area. We will have to wait and watch things unfold for now.
Crude Oil USO Fund USO looks to be trading at support. I am inclined to patiently wait another session before possibly taking a position.
Mid-Week Trading Conclusion: In short, I feel the overall market could bounce including stocks and possibly commodities, but the selling is not over yet in my opinion. The drop we have seen in the past week is the half way mark. So this bounce would be the starting of an ABC retrace for stock indexes. During choppy times I like to be sitting in cash and or day trading for short term profits.
Precious metals do look oversold and ready for a small bounce or sideways move; I do think they will head lower. Too many traders are still holding on to their gold positions and until a large number of them get scared out of their positions, we will not see gold rocket higher.
Natural gas looks like it’s about to head much lower this week while oil looks ready for a solid bounce off support.
We continue to wait for new low risk setups as different investment scenarios unfold.
