Crude Oil Bulls Take on Serious Chart Damage....Bears Take Clear Near Term Advantage

Crude oil closed down $2.95 at $79.79 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh 10 week low amid the EU debt crisis that is playing out. A stronger U.S. dollar index was a main bearish factor for crude today. Serious near term chart damage has been inflicted in crude the past two days, to suggest a near term market top is now in place.

Natural gas closed down 3.8 cents at $3.975 today. Prices closed near mid-range today in quieter trading. The recent pause at lower price levels is not bullish. A minor bear flag has formed on the daily bar chart. The bears have the solid near term technical advantage.

Gold futures closed up $5.40 at $1,174.60 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today as traders stepped in to "buy the dip" and do some bargain hunting at lower price levels. A stronger U.S. dollar and lower crude oil prices did limit the upside in gold today. Gold was also supported today on safe haven buying support as rioting occurred in Greece due to austerity measures taken by the government to reduce is massive debt. No chart damage occurred on the downside correction.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 79 points at 84.22 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another fresh contract and 12 month high. European Union sovereign debt troubles will continue to support the dollar index. The bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. However, the dollar index is now short term overbought, technically.


Don't miss our newest videos....

Did You Pull the Trigger on The Dow?

The S&P 500 Went South....Did You Cash in Your Chips?


Share

Did You Pull the Trigger on The Dow?

We have been concerned for some time that the market was in a rotational phase and that some key levels were being tested on the upside. The yesterday's action, Tuesday, can only be viewed one way, and that is negative. We do not expect this market to make a miraculous recovery to new highs and would not be surprised if we have seen the highs for the year.

In today's short video on the Dow, we look at potential downside targets that this market may be headed for. One of the key things to remember in trading, and this applies to all markets, is perception. This is why technical analysis plays such an important part in detecting shifts in market perceptions. Our "Trade Triangles" have done extraordinarily well in this environment.

Just click here to watch Did You Pull the Trigger on The Dow? and as always you can watch our videos without registration and there are no fees involved. Please take a minute to leave a comment and let us know if you pulled the trigger on the DOW.


Watch: The S&P 500 Went South....Did You Cash in Your Chips?


Share

Crude Oil Tumbles Below $80 as Euro Drops on Greek Debt Crisis

Crude oil fell below $80 a barrel in New York as the euro dropped against the dollar on concern that Greece’s bailout may have to be extended to other indebted nations. Oil slipped as much as 4.3 percent as the common currency tumbled to its lowest level against the dollar since March 2009, curbing the appeal of commodities to investors. U.S. stockpiles of crude oil rose 2.76 million barrels last week to the highest level since June, an Energy Department report showed today.

“The Greek crisis appears to be spreading, which is raising concerns about the economic recovery,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in Chicago. “Prices have been supported on expectations that demand will climb as economies rebound. Now the focus may return to the market fundamentals and the huge oversupply of oil.”

Crude oil for June delivery fell $2.54, or 3.1 percent, to $80.20 a barrel at 10:37 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $79.15, the lowest level since March 22. Prices slumped 6.9 percent yesterday and today, the biggest two day drop since Feb. 4 and 5.

Brent oil for June settlement declined $2.44, or 2.9 percent, to $83.23 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange. European Central Bank council member Axel Weber said today there is a threat of “grave contagion effects” in the euro area. The euro fell 1 percent to $1.2855, down from $1.2987 yesterday. The 16 nation currency touched $1.2804, the weakest level since March 12, 2009.....Read the entire article.


New Video: The S&P 500 Went South....Did You Cash in Your Chips?


Share

The S&P 500 Went South....Did You Cash in Your Chips?

For some time now we have been concerned about the lack of upside momentum and the divergences that have been building in many key oscillators. We were also concerned that we'd reached a very important Fibonacci level which we pointed out in a recent video.

It never ceases to amaze me how these levels have worked both in the past and in the present. If you're serious about the markets, you must pay attention to these key levels as many professional traders do, and perhaps you will understand why.

In today's short video, we're looking at the S&P 500 and some of the downside targets we have scoped out using a very simple tool. We had a nice run on the upside based on our "Trade Triangle" technology and we are happy to cash in our chips and watch from the sidelines for the time being.

Click here to watch The S&P 500 Went South....Did You Cash in Your Chips? and as always you can watch our videos without registration and there are no fees involved. Please feel free to leave a comment and let us and our readers know what you think is the direction the markets are headed.




Share

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook Wednesday Morning

Crude oil dropped sharply to as low as 81.85 so far and further decline would still be seen to 80.53/81.29 support zone. Note that as long as this 80.53/81.29 support zone holds, we're still treating price actions from 87.09 as consolidations in the larger rally only. Above 83.48 minor resistance will indicate that fall from 87.15 is completed and will flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting this retesting. However, decisive break of 80.53 will argue that whole rise from 69.05 is completed with a double top reversal pattern (87.05, 87.15) and will turn outlook bearish for deeper decline

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 33.20 is viewed as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27. Our preferred view is that rise from 33.2 is in form of a three wave structure (73.23, 65.05, ?) and should be near to completion. Strong resistance is expected around 90 psychological level, which coincide with 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 and 61.8% projection of 33.2 to 73.23 from 65.05 at 89.79, and bring reversal. Hence, even though another rally cannot be ruled out, upside potential should be limited. On the downside, break of 69.50 support will break the series of higher low pattern from 33.2 and will be an important indication that the trend has reversed. In such case, we'll turn bearish on crude oil and expect the then down trend to target a new low below 33.2.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.



Share

Crude Oil Falls Towards $82 on High U.S. Stockpiles, Firm U.S. Dollar

Crude oil fell toward $82 a barrel on Wednesday, extending the steepest one day percentage loss in three months in the previous session, on rising oil inventories and a firm dollar. The dollar surged to a one year high against a basket of six major currencies .DXY. It climbed to its strongest since last May against the Swiss franc as share markets around Asia lost ground on heightening fears that Greece's debt woes could spread to other countries.

U.S. crude for June delivery fell 37 cents to $82.37 a barrel by 0459 GMT. The contract dropped $3.45, or 4 percent, to settle at $82.74 a barrel on Tuesday. In post settlement trading, it ended electronic trading at $82.07, down $4.15 or 4.78 percent, the largest one day percentage loss since the 4.99 percent slide on February 4.

London Brent crude lost 32 cents to $85.35 a barrel. "The main influences now are the rise in the dollar, the sovereign concerns in the euro zone spreading into Portugal and Spain. I think a pretty important factor though going forward is the build in oil stocks in the United States," said Ben Westmore, an analyst at National Australia Bank.

"The price at those low $80s per barrel sort of mark is consistent with the market fundamental alone. I would expect oil price to track around the low $80s for the rest of the week." The dollar, which rose 0.37 percent against a basket of currencies on Wednesday, was supported by signs that the U.S. economy was on the mend. Data released on Tuesday showed pending U.S. home sales rose 5.3 percent in March while factory orders increased 1.3 percent. Both numbers handily beat forecasts.

A strong U.S. currency makes dollar denominated commodities, such as oil, more pricey for holders of other currencies and tends to dampen crude prices. Crude oil inventories at the key storage hub at Cushing, Oklahoma, rose by 1.7 million barrels to a record high of 36.3 million barrels, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed.

Overall, U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 3 million barrels in the week to April 30, API data showed, versus analyst expectations of a 1.1 million barrel rise in the latest Reuters poll. Gasoline stocks rose by 1.5 million barrels last week, sharply higher than a rise of 200,000 barrels analysts had expected. Distillates, including heating oil and diesel, rose by 1.4 million barrels, versus expectations of a 1.7 million barrel rise. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's report is set to arrive on Wednesday at 1400 GMT.

Crude oil prices have not been seriously impacted so far from a giant oil spill off the U.S. Gulf Coast. A flotilla of nearly 200 boats tackled a massive oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, taking advantage of calm weather to intensify containment efforts while a scientist warned that a powerful current could carry the crude to Miami and points beyond.


Here’s a Great Alternative to High Price Trading Courses


Share

Crude Oil Market Commentary For Tuesday Evening

Crude oil closed down $3.44 at $82.75 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session low today amid the EU debt crisis that is playing out. The bulls faded badly today but still have the overall near term technical advantage.

Natural gas closed up 1.6 cents at $4.016 today. Prices closed near mid range today and saw tepid short covering in a bear market. Prices last Friday hit a fresh contract low. The bears have the solid near term technical advantage.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 102 points at 83.42 today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh contract and 12 month high. European Union sovereign debt troubles will continue to support the dollar index. The bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are no early technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand.

Gold futures closed down $11.00 at $1,172.30 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart, whereby the high was higher and low was lower than Monday's trading range, with a lower close. Profit taking pressure was seen today following recent gains in gold. Gold prices hit a fresh five month high early on today. Gold was also pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar index today. No significant chart damage occurred today, but strong follow through selling pressure on Wednesday would begin to dent bullish technical momentum in gold.


Get 4 FREE Trading Videos from INO TV!


Share

Randy Ollenberger: Is Now the Time to Invest in Oil?

Discussing whether now is the time to invest in oil, with Randy Ollenberger, BMO Capital Markets and Thaddeus Vayda, Stifel Nicolaus.




Dennis Gartman’s 22 Rules of Trading

Share

Crude Oil Tumbles Most in Three Months as Dollar Surges, Stocks Drop

Crude oil declined the most in three months as the dollar strengthened against the euro, curbing the appeal of commodities to investors, and a slowdown in Chinese manufacturing sent global equities lower. Oil fell more than $3 a barrel as the dollar climbed to the highest level versus the common currency in a year on concern the Greek debt crisis will spread. A Chinese purchasing managers’ index fell to a six month low. Prices topped $87 a barrel for the first time in three weeks yesterday on signals the U.S. economic recovery is accelerating.

“Prices are considerably lower because the dollar is very strong and equities are being pounded,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy, a Stamford, Connecticut based procurement adviser. “There’s been a strong reversal over the last 24 hours after we failed to hang above $87 for a second time.”
Crude oil for June delivery fell $3.05, or 3.5 percent, to $83.14 a barrel at 1:53 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil dropped as much as 4.1 percent, the most since Feb. 4. Futures are up 4.8 percent this year.

Oil in New York rose as much as $1 a barrel yesterday to a 19 month high of $87.15 after the Institute for Supply Management’s factory index climbed to 60.4, the most since June 2004. Economists projected a gain to 60, based on a Bloomberg News survey. Prices last breached $87 on April 6 and 7. Brent oil for June settlement declined $3.05, or 3.4 percent, to $85.89 on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

‘The Nasty Reality’

“Yesterday’s positive economic indicators have been overtaken by the nasty reality in Europe,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. “It looks like oil will remain under pressure”....Read the entire article.


Get 4 FREE Trading Videos from INO TV!


Share

New Video: Is it All Over For The Euro?

Things have been bad in Europe recently. Between the travel restrictions due to the volcano and ash, as well as Greece not wanting to conform to strict fiscal policies, problems are adding up and adding weight onto the euro.

It is interesting to note that in the beginning of 2010, everyone was bearish on the dollar. Looking at the market action alone we could see that the dollar has done very well vis-à-vis the euro. This is where technical analysis shines as it is an unbiased viewpoint of the collective wisdom of all market participants.

In this new video we show you how you can trade the euro/USD cross using our "Trade Triangle" technology and come out of winner no matter what happens to Greece, Portugal, or Spain.

Just click here to watch Is it All Over For The Euro? And as always you can watch our videos without registration and there are no fees involved. Please feel free to leave a comment and let us know what you think about the EURO/USD trade.



Share