SP 500 and Crude Oil Monday Morning Madness

Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!

Crude oil prices are trading lower in early trading today. Trading has turned choppy but bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. In July crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $84.00 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $83.00 and then at $82.50.

In S&P 500 futures Prices hit a fresh four week high overnight. The shorter term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18- day) are bullish early today. The 4 day moving average is above the 9 day and 18 day. The 9 day is above the 18 day moving average. Short term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.

Today, shorter term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,347.00 and then at 1,360.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Friday's low of 1,324.40 and then at 1,305.80. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

It’s Easy, get started trading options today. Let’s us show you how

The Facts Behind Oil Prices

Posted courtesy of Gary Morsches at the CME Group....

Following up on my post about the benefits of speculation, and what really impacts the price of oil and gasoline, it’s worth sharing this infographic we designed to visually break down the elements that determine the price of energy. As you can see, it’s a mixture of many factors, each of which carries a varying amount of influence depending on current economic and geopolitical conditions.

Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!

Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Market Commentary For Thursday Evening June 14th

Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!

Crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates above the 87% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 81.36. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July renews this spring's decline, last October's low crossing at 77.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.21 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.03. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.21. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 81.07. Second support is last October's low crossing at 77.05.

Natural gas closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.487 signaling that a double bottom with April's low appears to have been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish with today's rally hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.487 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 2.136 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.522. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 2.838. First support is today's low crossing at 2.168. Second support is April's low crossing at 2.136.

Gold closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's rally off last Friday's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August renews the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 1674.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1591.10 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1632.00. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1674.30. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1591.10. Second support is May's low crossing at 1529.30.

Get Started Trading Crude Oil Now....With 10 FREE Trading Lessons

Natural Gas Steals The Headlines on EIA Injection Report

Today's story in Nat Gas is all about the weekly EIA injection report which came in below all of the market expectations today sending the market into an instant short covering rally that is still underway as of this writing. The inventory injection was below the market consensus as well as below last year and the five year average for the same week.

So far the weekly injections have underperformed for the entire injection season so far. This pattern will have to continue to avoid storage from hitting maximum capacity limitations before the end of the injection season (normally around the end of November to early December). Keep in mind in the short term the market will have limited upside as rising prices will eliminate the economic advantage of Nat Gas over coal for power generation.

This switching has contributed strongly to injections underperforming for the last three months. I still view this market as trading most of the time in the $2.25 to $2.50/mmbtu trading range.

Today's EIA report was bullish from the perspective that the injection was below the consensus level and bullish when compared to last year and the five year average injection level for the same week. The EIA injection was 7 BCF below the consensus (74 BCF) and below last year's injection and below the injection level for the five year average for the same week.

The net injection of 67 BCF was less than my model forecast (70 BCF) this week and at the very low end of the range of market projections. The inventory surplus narrowed modestly versus both last year and the more normal five year average also. The current inventory level is now 666 BCF above the five year average.

Video

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses todays spike in natural gas prices and the day's activity in the commodities markets and looks at where crude oil and precious metals are likely headed tomorrow.

CME: Simplest Way to Describe Oil Market....Uncertainty

Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!

The simplest way to describe the oil markets as well as the broader risk asset markets is in one word "uncertainty". Uncertainty is coming from many different directions all at the same time. June is the month of events and thus the month of above normal uncertainty. In the last five trading sessions oil prices have reversed direction each day demonstrating the lack of conviction by the majority of market participants. Each 30 second news snippet hitting the media airwaves sends the market in different directions as traders and investors try to sort out what is the next issue to emerge from the growing risk pyramid.

Today the first of the many June events will become clearer as OPEC decides what their forward production levels will be. There has been a group of OPEC members or the hawks...Iran & Venezuela in particular who are calling for a cut in production to bolster prices after about a $25/bbl decline over the last month or so. On the other hand the doves led by Saudi Arabia are looking to actually increase the official production ceiling and were showing no signs of agreeing to a cut ahead of the official meeting. History has told us that the position the Saudi's take heading into the meeting is generally the outcome of the meeting. All signs suggest history will repeat itself today and there will be no cuts in production with the official ceiling staying the same of raised marginally. I am expecting a rollover of the existing agreement.

This seems to be the outcome that the consensus of market participants has been expecting for the last several weeks and if the expectations are met I do not expect any major move in oil prices after the meeting communiqué is issued solely based on the outcome of the OPEC meeting. Oil prices are likely to remain in the $80 to $90/bbl range basis WTI and $95 to $105/bbl trading range basis Brent until the next round of events hit staring on Sunday. The outcome of the OPEC meeting...especially one that is likely to be a status quo meeting is certainly not the most important issue facing all of the risk markets in the short term and certainly not the main price driver for oil or the major risk asset markets.....Read the entire report.

Get 4 FREE Trading Videos from INO TV!

Crude Oil Continues in Trading Range Slightly Above 87% Retracement

Crude oil closed lower on Wednesday but remains above the 87% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 81.36. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July renews this spring's decline, last October's low crossing at 77.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.66 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.03. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.66. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 81.07. Second support is last October's low crossing at 77.05.

Natural gas closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off May's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July renews the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 2.136 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.496 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.496. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 2.838. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 2.173. Second support is April's low crossing at 2.136.

Gold closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rebound off last Friday's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August renews the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 1674.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1586.90 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1632.00. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1674.30. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1586.90. Second support is May's low crossing at 1529.30.

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

CME: Crude Oil Steady Ahead of EIA Inventory Report

Crude oil prices have been steady over the last twenty four hours after a short covering rally driven by a recovery in the euro and equity markets in Europe and the US after Monday's post Spanish bailout sell off. We are now entering the major event period for the month of June with the OPEC meeting kicking off tomorrow and the Greek elections on Sunday. Also since yesterday the EIA, IEA and OPEC have all released their oil forecasts while today the EIA will release its weekly oil inventory report. Last night the API data showed a surprise build in crude oil and decline in gasoline stocks (see below for more details on all of the fundamental reports.

I am still expecting a rollover with no production cuts from the OPEC meeting. I am still of the view that the Saudi's will keep oil production high even if oil prices continue to decline. I believe part of the strategy is to add pressure on Iran with lower oil prices and thus hope that it motivates Iran and the West to eventually negotiate a deal over Iran's nuclear issues. The next Iran/West meeting is in Moscow early next week.

At the moment most risk asset markets are still in a downtrend even after a short covering rally yesterday. The technicals for all of the markets are also suggesting lower values going forward. However, event risk will take over as the main price driver for all of the risk asset markets including the oil complex as the macro correlations remain very tightly linked. I believe there is a lot of trading and investing dollars sitting on the sidelines which is likely to remain parked in bonds and money markets until more clarity emerges from the major market headwinds. Following are just some of the main questions clouding all of the markets

Who will win the Greek elections?

Will the Spanish bank bailout actually go forward?

Is Italy next on the agenda?

Will the EU move to eurobonds?

Will contagion spread around to other EU countries as well as outside the EU?

Will the EU slip back into recession?

Will the US economy continue to slow?

Will China's easing result in a growth spurt for this meteoric economy?

Will the US Fed announce another quantitative easing program at their June meeting?

What will be the outcome of the OPEC meeting...production cut or status quo?

Will any progress be made at the next round of talks between Iran and the West?

If no progress is made does it quickly increase the likelihood of military action in the region?

There are more but I trust you all get the point as to the magnitude of the event risk to all of the markets over the next two to three weeks. All of the above have implications for the market and are likely to impact the direction of the markets...at least for the short term. In addition to all of the normal technical and fundamentals approaches you use for trading and investing for the next two to three weeks you must pay close attention to not only the outcome of all of the events but the 30 second news snippets hitting the media airwaves leading up to all of the events. The only guarantee is markets will remain volatile with sudden price reversals as we saw during Monday's US trading session.....

Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!

U.S. Dry Natural Gas Production Growth Levels off Following Decline in Natural Gas Prices

U.S. dry natural gas production has increased since late 2005 due mainly to rapid growth in production from shale gas resources. However, there have been two notable instances (see red ovals in the chart) in the last seven years when natural gas production leveled off during a period of falling spot natural gas prices. The first was during the recent economic recession and the latest began in the fourth quarter of 2011 and continued through the first quarter of 2012.



Weather events (see green ovals) have also affected U.S. natural gas production.
The major events over the past seven years that have caused dry gas output to level off or even decline include:

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (Sep-Oct 2005) - Disrupted up to 12.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in offshore natural gas production.

Hurricanes Gustav and Ike (Sep 2008) - Disrupted up to 9.5 Bcf/d in offshore natural gas production.

Economic recession and falling prices (Oct 2008- Sep 2009), Reduced industrial and manufacturing activity, and lower electricity use eased demand for natural gas as a feedstock and a power generation fuel. Natural gas prices fell sharply as a result.

Winter well freeze offs (Feb 2011) - Disrupted up to 7.5 Bcf/d in natural gas production from Texas to Arizona, when water froze inside wellheads during extremely cold weather and blocked gas flows.

Supply overhang and falling natural gas prices (Oct 2011-Mar 2012) A warm winter that reduced heating fuel demand and record high gas inventories resulted in a nearly 50% drop in gas prices, causing some energy companies to postpone new drilling and cut back on some existing operations.

Natural gas production was relatively flat between October 2011 and March 2012, when Henry Hub spot gas prices declined from just above $3.50 to around $2.00 per million British thermal units in March. Preliminary EIA data indicate a slight drop in production during March, according to the Natural Gas Monthly report released on May 31.

Of the five large gas producing states tracked monthly by EIA Texas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Wyoming, New Mexico had the highest percentage decline in its March gross natural gas production, down 2.2 percent from the previous month, while Texas had the largest volumetric drop, down 150 million cubic feet per day. States that EIA does not presently track on a monthly basis, such as Pennsylvania, may have seen their gas output increase during March.

Get Today's 50 Top Trending Stocks

Are Commodities Putting in a Bottom?

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidates above the 87% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 81.36. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 88.25 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July renews this spring's decline, last October's low crossing at 77.05 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.03. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 88.25. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 81.21. Second support is last October's low crossing at 77.05.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July renews the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 2.136 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.515 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.515. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 2.838. First support is today's low crossing at 2.173. Second support is April's low crossing at 2.136.

Gold closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it extends the rebound off last Friday's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1583.80 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 1674.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1632.00. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1674.30. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1583.80. Second support is May's low crossing at 1529.30.

6 Things Successful Traders Have in Common

Crude Oil Trade For This Week....Understanding Follow Through and Utilizing a Trailing Stop

From guest analyst Brian Booth.....

The chart shown below is a snapshot of the July Crude Oil futures. After spending the entire month slipping lower alongside of most of the major global markets, Crude Oil prices have tried to recover off of $82.00 a barrel in the first week of June.

One of the identifiable themes for this chart is the range that Crude traded in throughout May (see blue trendlines on chart). There were four days in the month when prices closed outside of this range, and this is what I feel is most important to highlight.

A common theme in market reports over the last few months has been the lack of volume in many of the futures, and markets overall. As Europe and China continue to disappoint, traders have been booking gains on their long term positions and have failed to return with the same enthusiasm that we saw when the US FED was actively easing the market.

Over the next few weeks, the markets will not only wait for the FED’s next FOMC policy statement but will also look for a final election decision out of Greece. This week, traders look to news from OPEC on Thursday as they meet to discuss oil output levels. The impact of these meetings and reports will be instrumental in determining whether many markets will recover from May’s slides, or whether they will endure another leg lower.

The reason that I chose the Crude Oil as the chart of the week is because I feel that the next time that Crude prices close outside of this range again, the move will show us a trend to trade. What I think is very important is to note how prices broke the trend on the upper end for two days, and then fell back into the range. Normally, closes above the range for multiple days would see follow through buying. Instead, prices quickly corrected lower.

Three days later, prices were not only lower; they closed outside of the range on the bottom end! Normally, traders would look for a follow through sell after two days below the range but were treated to an almost $5 rally in three days which was corrected twenty four hours later and almost corrected AGAIN twenty fours after that! If Johnny Carson were reporting on the technicals over the last eleven days, I imagine he would say, “This is some wild, weird stuff”!

With all of this in mind, I will be watching for Crude prices to close outside of the range again. I believe that the next time this happens, the trade will see follow through buying or selling instead of two days followed by a reversal. If Crude closes above the range, I will look for a continued move higher, but will definitely be recommending traders use stops below and in the range. If Crude prices begin closing below the range again, I will look for follow through selling and will recommend selling the futures with stop orders above and in the range. I will also recommend that traders utilize a trailing stop as the market allows.



We want to welcome Brian to the MarketClub team. Get a FREE Two Week Trial From MarketClub