Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidates below the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 80.33. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends this spring's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 73.28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.31 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.31. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.32. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 77.56. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 73.28.
Natural gas closed higher on Tuesday as it extended this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends this month's rally, May's high crossing at 2.838 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.449 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.778. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 2.838. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.449. Second support is this month's low crossing at 2.168.
Gold closed lower on Tuesday and poised to renew the decline off last week's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends last week's decline, May's low crossing at 1529.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1602.60 are needed to temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1602.60. Second resistance is reaction high crossing at 1642.40. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1556.40. Second support is May's low crossing at 1529.30.
Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
Tuesday, June 26, 2012
CME Recap Energy Market Report For Tuesday June 26th
August crude oil prices registered an inside day trading range that was slightly higher on the session. The market spent most of the session within a tight trading range, despite fractional improvement in outside market sentiment.
Early support for the market came from gains in Brent crude oil and from expectations that US weekly crude stocks drew down last week. Prices took a negative turn in the wake of US economic data that showed Consumer Confidence falling by more than expected in June.
Some traders pointed to gains in Brent crude oil and concerns over a workers' strike in Norway that could tighten up near term supply as a force providing a late morning turnaround. As a result, the price differential between Brent and WTI crude oil increased by nearly $2.00 on the session.
Expectations for this week's EIA crude oil report are for a draw in the range of 750,000 to 1.0 million barrels.
Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
Drop in U.S. Gasoline Prices Reflects Decline in Crude Oil Costs
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
Since reaching a recent peak of $3.94 per gallon on April 2, the average retail price U.S. drivers paid for gasoline has fallen for 12 weeks in a row to $3.44 per gallon, according to EIA's weekly motor fuel survey. The drop in gasoline prices largely reflects the decline in crude oil prices (see chart below), which have historically comprised the biggest part of the pump price.
The national average price for regular unleaded gasoline fell 50 cents per gallon over the 12-week period, while the spot prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil declined the equivalent of 63 cents per gallon and Brent crude oil fell the equivalent of 81 cents per gallon. WTI and Brent are among the world's leading oil pricing benchmarks.
If crude oil price changes are fully passed through to consumers, for every $1 per barrel change in crude oil prices, consumers could expect to see a 2.4-cent-per-gallon change in retail gasoline prices. However, EIA analysis indicates that generally about 50% of the crude oil price change is usually passed on to consumers at the pump within two weeks, and 80% is generally passed on within four weeks. Gasoline prices are also sensitive to conditions affecting particular regional markets, such as significant refinery outages on the West Coast this spring that led to higher prices in that area.
The price of crude oil accounts for about two thirds of the retail price of gasoline. Refining costs, distribution and marketing costs, and state and federal taxes make up the rest of the retail gasoline price. Pump prices vary by region, with some drivers paying more or less for gasoline than the national average depending on where they live (see chart below).
Concerns that a weak global economy will lead to reduced petroleum demand has contributed to lower crude oil prices. However, part of the reason retail gasoline prices have not dropped as much as crude oil prices is that U.S. gasoline demand has started to show some growth in recent months. During the first quarter of 2012, monthly EIA data shows U.S. gasoline demand was down about 1.4% from the first quarter of last year. However, since the gasoline price peak, weekly EIA data indicate that gasoline demand has started to strengthen, with demand down only 0.9% in April compared to a year earlier and up by 0.2% in May.
The current 12 week drop in gasoline costs is the second longest period of declining pump prices recorded by EIA's weekly fuel price survey since the drop at the end of 2008, when pump prices fell for 15 straight weeks.
Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
Since reaching a recent peak of $3.94 per gallon on April 2, the average retail price U.S. drivers paid for gasoline has fallen for 12 weeks in a row to $3.44 per gallon, according to EIA's weekly motor fuel survey. The drop in gasoline prices largely reflects the decline in crude oil prices (see chart below), which have historically comprised the biggest part of the pump price.
The national average price for regular unleaded gasoline fell 50 cents per gallon over the 12-week period, while the spot prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil declined the equivalent of 63 cents per gallon and Brent crude oil fell the equivalent of 81 cents per gallon. WTI and Brent are among the world's leading oil pricing benchmarks.
If crude oil price changes are fully passed through to consumers, for every $1 per barrel change in crude oil prices, consumers could expect to see a 2.4-cent-per-gallon change in retail gasoline prices. However, EIA analysis indicates that generally about 50% of the crude oil price change is usually passed on to consumers at the pump within two weeks, and 80% is generally passed on within four weeks. Gasoline prices are also sensitive to conditions affecting particular regional markets, such as significant refinery outages on the West Coast this spring that led to higher prices in that area.
The price of crude oil accounts for about two thirds of the retail price of gasoline. Refining costs, distribution and marketing costs, and state and federal taxes make up the rest of the retail gasoline price. Pump prices vary by region, with some drivers paying more or less for gasoline than the national average depending on where they live (see chart below).
Concerns that a weak global economy will lead to reduced petroleum demand has contributed to lower crude oil prices. However, part of the reason retail gasoline prices have not dropped as much as crude oil prices is that U.S. gasoline demand has started to show some growth in recent months. During the first quarter of 2012, monthly EIA data shows U.S. gasoline demand was down about 1.4% from the first quarter of last year. However, since the gasoline price peak, weekly EIA data indicate that gasoline demand has started to strengthen, with demand down only 0.9% in April compared to a year earlier and up by 0.2% in May.
The current 12 week drop in gasoline costs is the second longest period of declining pump prices recorded by EIA's weekly fuel price survey since the drop at the end of 2008, when pump prices fell for 15 straight weeks.
Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
Is this technical support for oil or a lift on tensions in Syria?
CME: August crude oil prices took a slightly higher track during the initial morning hours, helped by a modest lift in outside market sentiment and expectations that week's EIA inventory report will show a draw. August Brent crude oil broke out to a new three day high during the initial morning hours, supported by a modest level of short covering, as well as expectations that US crude oil inventories drew down last week. The crude oil market also appears to be getting a modest lift from rising tensions in Syria. Meanwhile, the supply situation looks more than ample given soft economic data that continues to weigh on demand prospects and as Saudi Arabia continues their active production pace.
COT: August crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. If August extends this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.31 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.31. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.32. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 77.56. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28.
Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
Monday, June 25, 2012
Crude Oil Bears Supported by Lack of Confidence in European Debt Crisis and China Numbers
Get ready for tomorrows trading....Get today's 50 top trending stocks!
Crude oil closed lower on Monday as it consolidates below the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 80.33. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends this spring's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 73.28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.91 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.91. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.32. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 77.56. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 73.28.
Natural gas closed higher on Monday as it extended this month's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends this month's rally, May's high crossing at 2.838 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.434 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.731. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 2.838. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.434. Second support is this month's low crossing at 2.168.
Gold closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends last week's decline, May's low crossing at 1529.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1606.40 are needed to temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1606.40. Second resistance is reaction high crossing at 1642.40. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1556.40. Second support is May's low crossing at 1529.30.
Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
Crude oil closed lower on Monday as it consolidates below the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 80.33. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends this spring's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 73.28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.91 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.91. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.32. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 77.56. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 73.28.
Natural gas closed higher on Monday as it extended this month's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends this month's rally, May's high crossing at 2.838 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.434 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.731. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 2.838. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.434. Second support is this month's low crossing at 2.168.
Gold closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends last week's decline, May's low crossing at 1529.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1606.40 are needed to temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1606.40. Second resistance is reaction high crossing at 1642.40. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1556.40. Second support is May's low crossing at 1529.30.
Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
Crude Oil Opens Lower as Debby Loses Focus
Get Today's 50 Top Trending Stocks
CME: August crude oil prices grinded higher during the Sunday evening trade but reversed course throughout the initial morning hours. It seemed that ongoing concerns over weakening global growth and European debt issues weighed on oil demand prospects. Fears over weakening demand took some of the focus away from Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico, which shuttered nearly 25% of oil and gas operations in the region. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of June 19th showed non commercial traders were net long 192,059 contracts, a decrease of 8,943. Non commercial and nonreportable traders combined held a net long position of 198,111 contracts, for a decrease of 15,830 in their net long positioning.
COT: August crude oil was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. If August extends this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.89 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.89. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.32. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 77.56. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28.
Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
CME: August crude oil prices grinded higher during the Sunday evening trade but reversed course throughout the initial morning hours. It seemed that ongoing concerns over weakening global growth and European debt issues weighed on oil demand prospects. Fears over weakening demand took some of the focus away from Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico, which shuttered nearly 25% of oil and gas operations in the region. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of June 19th showed non commercial traders were net long 192,059 contracts, a decrease of 8,943. Non commercial and nonreportable traders combined held a net long position of 198,111 contracts, for a decrease of 15,830 in their net long positioning.
COT: August crude oil was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. If August extends this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.89 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.89. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.32. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 77.56. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28.
Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
Saturday, June 23, 2012
ONG: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook Saturday June 23rd
From the staff at ONG......
Crude oil's decline resumed last week and dropped to as low as 77.56 before recovering mildly. As long as 84.34 resistance holds, deeper fall is still expected for 74.95 key support next. Though, we'd start to look for reversal signal below there. Meanwhile, break of 84.34 will argue that a short term bottom is at least formed, with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. In such case, stronger rebound should be seen back to 90 psychological level.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 114.84 are developing into a three wave consolidation pattern with fall from 110.55 as the third leg. Deeper fall should eventually be seen to 74.95 low and possibly below. Though, we'd likely see strong support from 64.23 cluster level, 61.8% retracement of 33.20 to 114.83 at 64.38 and bring another medium term rise. Hence we'll look for reversal signal below 74.95.
In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.
Nymex crude oil continuous contract 4 hour, daily, weekly and monthly charts
Gold Still at Risk of a Large Downward Move Before the Rally
Friday, June 22, 2012
North American Spot Crude Oil Benchmarks Likely Diverging Due to Bottlenecks
Gold and Silver on the Verge of Something Spectacular
West Texas Intermediate at Cushing, Oklahoma (WTI Cushing), a light, sweet crude grade, is North America's most closely observed crude oil price benchmark and the underlying commodity of the NYMEX crude futures contract. Until 2008, all North American crude grades broadly tracked fluctuations in WTI Cushing prices and were clustered within about $8 per barrel of the WTI Cushing price. Pricing differences between crude grades were largely explained by the different quality characteristics of the crude oil in each location and transportation costs to Cushing, the delivery point of the NYMEX contract.
Since 2008, however, the price differences between WTI Cushing and other North American crude oil benchmarks have increased sharply (see chart below). In addition to WTI, other crude grades have emerged as alternative benchmarks. In particular, the Argus Sour Crude Price Index (ASCI), a weighted average of prices for several offshore Gulf of Mexico sour crude grades, has become the benchmark or reference used for assessing the price of several imported grades sold on a long-term contract basis, including Saudi Arabian and Kuwaiti crude grades.
Transportation constraints in the wake of rising production from inland fields in Canada, North Dakota, and Texas are one of the main drivers of the growing price discrepancy between crude grades since 2008. Limited pipeline capacity has made it difficult to bring crude oil out of the center of the continent, lowering all the affected benchmarks compared to prices outside the area. But within the constrained area, prices have also diverged from each other, reflecting local transmission bottlenecks within the larger constrained area. For example, crude oil benchmarks for the Bakken, Western Canada, and West Texas Sour (Midland, Texas) have traded at a discount to WTI Cushing. Rising production in the Bakken and West Texas have exacerbated these price differences. Outside the constrained areas, benchmarks like Louisiana Light Sweet, Alaska North Slope, and Mars Blend in the Gulf of Mexico reflect premiums to WTI Cushing, sometimes significant.
The phrase "transportation constraints" refers to a broad range of logistic issues, with inadequate pipeline capacity being the most common issue. However, EIA is not aware of any crude oil production capacity being shut in because of a lack of capacity to move the oil. In the short term, production surges and/or pipeline shutdowns force oil producers to compete with each other for more expensive transport options: rail and then truck. In the longer term, additional transportation capacity (rail and pipeline) is likely to be built, which should lower the cost of transporting the oil to markets.
Some North American crude oil benchmark locations are identified in the map below.
Gold Still at Risk of a Large Downward Move Before the Rally
West Texas Intermediate at Cushing, Oklahoma (WTI Cushing), a light, sweet crude grade, is North America's most closely observed crude oil price benchmark and the underlying commodity of the NYMEX crude futures contract. Until 2008, all North American crude grades broadly tracked fluctuations in WTI Cushing prices and were clustered within about $8 per barrel of the WTI Cushing price. Pricing differences between crude grades were largely explained by the different quality characteristics of the crude oil in each location and transportation costs to Cushing, the delivery point of the NYMEX contract.
Since 2008, however, the price differences between WTI Cushing and other North American crude oil benchmarks have increased sharply (see chart below). In addition to WTI, other crude grades have emerged as alternative benchmarks. In particular, the Argus Sour Crude Price Index (ASCI), a weighted average of prices for several offshore Gulf of Mexico sour crude grades, has become the benchmark or reference used for assessing the price of several imported grades sold on a long-term contract basis, including Saudi Arabian and Kuwaiti crude grades.
Transportation constraints in the wake of rising production from inland fields in Canada, North Dakota, and Texas are one of the main drivers of the growing price discrepancy between crude grades since 2008. Limited pipeline capacity has made it difficult to bring crude oil out of the center of the continent, lowering all the affected benchmarks compared to prices outside the area. But within the constrained area, prices have also diverged from each other, reflecting local transmission bottlenecks within the larger constrained area. For example, crude oil benchmarks for the Bakken, Western Canada, and West Texas Sour (Midland, Texas) have traded at a discount to WTI Cushing. Rising production in the Bakken and West Texas have exacerbated these price differences. Outside the constrained areas, benchmarks like Louisiana Light Sweet, Alaska North Slope, and Mars Blend in the Gulf of Mexico reflect premiums to WTI Cushing, sometimes significant.
The phrase "transportation constraints" refers to a broad range of logistic issues, with inadequate pipeline capacity being the most common issue. However, EIA is not aware of any crude oil production capacity being shut in because of a lack of capacity to move the oil. In the short term, production surges and/or pipeline shutdowns force oil producers to compete with each other for more expensive transport options: rail and then truck. In the longer term, additional transportation capacity (rail and pipeline) is likely to be built, which should lower the cost of transporting the oil to markets.
Some North American crude oil benchmark locations are identified in the map below.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Gold Still at Risk of a Large Downward Move Before the Rally
Thursday, June 21, 2012
Gold Still at Risk of a Large Downward Move Before the Rally
Gold has been busy consolidating in what I believe will be a 13 Fibonacci month Primary wave 4 correction. The Gold bull market I’ve been following since 2001 is a likely 13 year bull cycle that will end in 2013 or 2014 depending on how you count. This current correction pattern is working off a 34 Fibonacci month rally that took Gold from 681 to 1923 at its ultimate highs. Last fall I warned about the parabolic run likely ending in the 1908 ranges and for investors to position themselves accordingly.
Today we have Gold trading around 1600 and our recent forecast in May was for a rally into Mid June topping around 1620-1650 ranges in US Dollars. The intermediate forecast still calls for a possible drop to 1445-1455 ranges this summer, the same figures I gave out on TheStreet.Com interview last September for a Primary wave 4 low.
Only a close and a strong move over 1650 will eliminate the downside risk in my opinion. Below we can see a weekly chart showing the 34 week moving average line as well as the obvious downtrend line. The 34 week moving average line acted as support during the Primary wave 3 rally from 681-1923. It now is acting as a resistance ceiling to break through, and I don’t think we will until this fall. The likely cyclical lows for this Gold correction will be in the October window and investors should make sure they are positioned long by that time.
Subscribe to our regular updates to stay informed on a dialy basis on the SP 500 and GOLD in the meantime with a discount offer. Go to Market Trends Forecast.com to sign up or to ask for our free weekly reports.
Today we have Gold trading around 1600 and our recent forecast in May was for a rally into Mid June topping around 1620-1650 ranges in US Dollars. The intermediate forecast still calls for a possible drop to 1445-1455 ranges this summer, the same figures I gave out on TheStreet.Com interview last September for a Primary wave 4 low.
Only a close and a strong move over 1650 will eliminate the downside risk in my opinion. Below we can see a weekly chart showing the 34 week moving average line as well as the obvious downtrend line. The 34 week moving average line acted as support during the Primary wave 3 rally from 681-1923. It now is acting as a resistance ceiling to break through, and I don’t think we will until this fall. The likely cyclical lows for this Gold correction will be in the October window and investors should make sure they are positioned long by that time.
Subscribe to our regular updates to stay informed on a dialy basis on the SP 500 and GOLD in the meantime with a discount offer. Go to Market Trends Forecast.com to sign up or to ask for our free weekly reports.
U.S. Dollar Safe Haven Demand Sends Crude Oil Lower....Much Lower
Crude oil [August contract] closed down $2.93 a barrel at $78.52 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit another fresh 8 1/2 month low. A bearish economic report out of China combined with a stronger U.S. dollar index and a downbeat assessment of the U.S. economy by the Federal Reserve combined to sink the crude oil market agaon today. The crude bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage.
Natural gas closed up 6.6 cents at $2.621 today. Prices closed near mid range today and saw short covering. Bulls and bears are on a level near term technical playing field.
Gold futures closed down $50.00 an ounce at $1,566.00 today. Prices closed near the session low and closed at a fresh three week low close as the bulls have faded badly. The key “outside markets” were fully bearish for gold today, as the U.S. dollar index was solidly higher while crude oil prices were sharply lower. Gold market bears have regained the overall near term technical advantage.
The September U.S. dollar index closed up 76 points at 82.51 today. Prices closed near the session high today and saw support on fresh safe haven demand after the FOMC's downbeat assessment of the U.S. economy and some weak China economic data. Bulls have the overall near term technical advantage and regained upside momentum today
Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
