Have the crude oil bears taken the clear advantage?

September crude oil closed slightly lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 104.15 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 109.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 109.45. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 104.15. Second support is today's low crossing at 103.90.

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The September S&P 500 closed lower due to profit taking on Friday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1657.12 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the next trading into uncharted territory. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1695.50. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1666.00. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1657.12.

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August gold closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extend the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 1394.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1277.50 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1348.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1394.00. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1277.50. Second support is June's low crossing at 1179.40.

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August Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.546 is the next downside target. If August renews the rally, the reaction high crossing at 4.003 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 3.835. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.003. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.546. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.365.

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Is this a buy signal in coffee? JO

Our trading partner Jim Robinson of INO.com is talking coffee today and he is sharing his expert analysis of charts to our readers. Each week he'll be be analyzing a different chart using our Trade Triangle technology and his experience. Today he is going to take a look at the technical picture of Coffee, contract (NYBOT_KC.Z13.E). Here at The Crude Oil Trader we are using ticker JO for our current coffee trades.

This week let's take a look at the December Coffee futures chart.

We use the weekly MarketClub Trade Triangle to tell the trend when trading futures and the daily MarketClub Trade Triangle to time the trade. December Coffee is on a weekly green MarketClub Trade Triangle and a daily red MarketClub Trade Triangle which is just exactly the way we want the Triangles to line up for a buy setup.

If December Coffee trades higher from here and puts in a daily green MarketClub Trade Triangle that is the place to go long because the weekly and daily Trade Triangles will then both be pointing up. If a long trade does happen in Coffee, then the stop if wrong is if Coffee trades lower and puts in a red daily Trade Triangle.

This is a great way to trade because we are getting long with the trend and will catch all the big trending moves when they happen, while cutting our loses short if the trade doesn't move our way. If Coffee continues lower from here and puts in a red weekly Trade Triangle then the long trade is off, which is fine, as we are following what the market is telling us, and lower prices from here would cancel the current long trade setup.

Coffee is a Chart to Watch right now, because a big move higher from here could be about to happen.




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Bears taking charge....Crude oil bulls struggle to trade above 20 day moving average

The September S&P 500 closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1653.23 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the next trading into uncharted territory. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1695.50. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1666.00. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1653.23.

September crude oil closed slightly higher on Thursday but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 106.43. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 103.77 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 109.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 109.45. First support is today's low crossing at 104.08. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 103.77.

August Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.668 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.546 is the next downside target. If August renews the rally, the reaction high crossing at 4.003 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 3.835. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.003. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.546. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.365.

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EIA: By 2040 world energy consumption will rise by 56%

From Robin Dupre at Rigzone.com......

World energy consumption will rise 56 percent in the next three decades, driven by growth in the developing world, noted The Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its International Energy Outlook 2013 report Thursday. China and India’s rising prosperity is a major factor in the outlook for global energy demand, noted EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski in a press conference call.

“These two countries combined account for half the world’s total increase in energy use through 2040. This will have a profound effect on the development of world energy markets.” Energy demand will increase to 820 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2040, up from 524 quadrillion Btus. By 2040, China’s energy use will double the United States’, according to EIA estimates.

One quadrillion Btu is equal to 172 million barrels of crude oil.

Additionally, renewable energy and nuclear power are the fastest growing source of energy consumption with each increasing by 2.5 percent per year. But fossil fuels, including oil, natural gas and coal will continue to supply almost 80 percent of the world’s energy through 2040, noted Sieminski.

Natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel in EIA’s outlook, and will continue to dominate the landscape, increasing by 1.7 percent per year. Swelling supplies of tight gas, shale gas and coalbed methane support growth in projected worldwide gas use with non OECD Europe/Eurasia, Middle East and the United States accounting for the largest increases in natural gas production.

The explosion in supply from unconventional sources will underpin growth of natural gas demand, while high oil prices will encourage countries to focus on liquid fuels “when feasible”, the report stated.

The EIA’s July short term energy outlook projected benchmark Brent crude to average $105 a barrel in 2013 and $100 in 2014.The report projects that prices will increase long term with the world oil price reaching $106 a barrel in 2020 and $163 in 2040 in the Reference case.

With more than 10 years of journalism experience, Robin Dupre specializes in the offshore sector of the oil and gas industry. Email Robin at rdupre@rigzone.com.

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Statoil Reports 2013 Second Quarter Results STO

Statoils (NYSE:STO) second quarter 2013 net operating income was NOK 34.3 billion. Adjusted earnings were NOK 38.0 billion. "Statoil delivered an operationally solid quarter. We produced as planned, delivering record production from our portfolio outside Norway. We are on track and maintain our guidance for 2013," says Helge Lund, Statoil's president and CEO.

"Our financial results were impacted by lower prices for liquids and gas and weak trading results. However, we have maintained good cost control and delivered strong earnings, particularly from our international portfolio," says Lund.

In the quarter, Statoil ramped up several fields. The company continues to have a high activity level in projects on the Norwegian continental shelf, with major field developments ongoing such as Gudrun, Åsgard subsea compression and Valemon.

"The activity level on new field developments is high. We are executing our projects according to plan," says Lund.

Statoil continued its exploration progress with five discoveries in the quarter. The company has accessed attractive exploration acreage in Norway, Russia, Azerbaijan, Tanzania and Australia, further strengthening its position for profitable long term growth.

Second quarter results 2013

Statoil's net operating income was NOK 34.3 billion compared to NOK 62.0 billion in the second quarter of 2012. Adjusted earnings [5] were NOK 38.0 billion, compared to NOK 45.8 billion in the second quarter of 2012. Adjusted earnings after tax [5] were NOK 11.3 billion, compared to NOK 11.5 billion in the second quarter of 2012. Net income was NOK 4.3 billion compared to NOK 26.6 billion in the second quarter of 2012.

Key events since first quarter 2013:

Revitalising Statoil's legacy position on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS) by progressing new projects as planned, including Gudrun, Åsgard subsea gas compression, Valemon and Aasta Hansteen. Two category- J rigs acquired by the licence partners of Gullfaks and Oseberg Area Unit to increase recovery and extend field life. Johan Castberg project postponed for review, due to updated project estimates and pending clarification in the fiscal framework.

Accessing attractive acreage in the Barents Sea, Brazil, Tanzania, Russia, Caspian and Australia. Oil discoveries announced offshore Newfoundland in Canada and in the Grane area in Norway. Important Johan Sverdrup appraisal completed, confirming the extent and characteristics of the reservoir.

Stepping up our activity in unconventional resources by assuming operatorship for all activities in the eastern part of our Eagle Ford asset in Texas. Statoil now has operational activities in all onshore assets in the US (Bakken, Marcellus and Eagle Ford).

Building offshore clusters by sanctioning the Julia and Heidelberg developments in the Gulf of Mexico.

Creating value from a superior gas position: The Shah Deniz consortium announced that it has selected the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) to deliver gas from the Shah Deniz Stage 2 project.

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Commodities Market Summary for Wednesday Evening

The September S&P 500 closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the next trading into uncharted territory. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1648.65 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1695.50. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1666.00. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1648.65.

September crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday and below the 10 day moving average crossing at 106.29 signaling that a short term top is in or is near. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 103.25 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 109.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 109.45. First support is today's low crossing at 104.79. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 103.25.

August Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.672 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews last Thursday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 4.003 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 3.835. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.003. First support is the 87% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 3.508. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.365.

August gold closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday consolidating some of the rally off June's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extend the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 1394.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1266.60 would temper the near term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1348.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1394.00. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1266.70. Second support is June's low crossing at 1179.40.


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EIA: Underground Natural Gas Working Storage Capacity

Natural gas working storage capacity increased by about 2 percent in the Lower 48 states between November 2011 and November 2012. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has two measures of working gas storage capacity, and both increased by similar amounts:

*   Demonstrated maximum volume increased 1.8 percent to 4,265 billion cubic feet (Bcf)

*   Design capacity increased 2.0 percent to 4,575 Bcf

Maximum demonstrated working gas volume is an operational measure of the highest level of working gas reported at each storage facility at any time over the previous five years, according to EIA's monthly survey of storage operators. Working gas is the volume of natural gas in an underground natural gas facility available to be withdrawn, not including base gas.

The maximum demonstrated working gas volume is a practical measure of full storage. Filling storage, which requires compressors to inject the gas into the storage facility, becomes more difficult and expensive as storage volume nears its maximum and pressures inside the facility increase.

That's why the demonstrated maximum is generally less than the design capacity, averaging 93% over the past two measurement periods (see Table 1), and why any given week's storage inventory is generally less than the demonstrated maximum. The maximum demonstrated volume provides guidance to operators and market analysts on the economics of filling the system.

Last October, for example, when working gas in storage reached a record-high of 3,930 Bcf, a simple calculation using the then current maximum demonstrated volume (4,188 Bcf) showed storage to be 94% full.

Read the entire EIA Report


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Tuesday's Trading Gives Crude Oil Bulls Some Hope

Tuesday gives oil bulls some hope, but is this the short of a lifetime in crude oil?

September crude oil closed higher [107.38] on Tuesday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 109.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 102.75 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 109.45. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 106.33. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 102.75.

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Free Replay of "How to use Fibonacci Analysis in your Trading" with Carolyn "The Fibonacci Queen" Boroden

Our wildly popular webinar from last week was over subscribed so our trading partner John Carter at Simpler Options has decided to offer it one last time Tuesday July 23rd at 2 p.m. eastern standard time.

In this Free webinar replay Carolyn Boroden and John Carter will discuss:

*      How to identify Fibonacci support & resistance zones

*     The simple way to manage your risk/reward using Fibonacci ratios

*    The brain dead easy ways to set up your support & resistance zones

*     How you can identify what markets to trade and when

*     The secret to identifying high probability targets in stocks and ETFs

........ and much more

Simply fill out this simple registration form and you will be automatically registered for the webinar.

See you on Tuesday!

Ray @ The Crude Oil Trader

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Halliburton Announces Second Quarter Income and Earnings HAL

Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) announced today that income from continuing operations for the second quarter of 2013 was $677 million, or $0.73 per diluted share. This compares to income from continuing operations for the first quarter of 2013 of $624 million, or $0.67 per diluted share, excluding a $637 million charge, after-tax, or $0.68 per diluted share, to increase a reserve related to the Macondo litigation.

Halliburton's total revenue in the second quarter of 2013 was a company record of $7.3 billion, compared to $7.0 billion in the first quarter of 2013. Operating income was $1.0 billion in the second quarter of 2013, compared to operating income of $902 million in the first quarter of 2013, adjusted for the Macondo charge. For the first quarter of 2013, reported loss from continuing operations was $13 million, or $0.01 per diluted share, and reported operating loss was $98 million.

“I am pleased with our second quarter results, as total company revenue of $7.3 billion was a record quarter for Halliburton,” commented Dave Lesar, chairman, president and chief executive officer.

“Looking at our product lines, Baroid, Cementing, Completion Tools, Multi-Chem, and Testing set quarterly revenue records, while Baroid, Testing, and Artificial Lift all set quarterly operating income records.

“Relative to our primary competitors, we have delivered leading year-over-year international revenue growth for five consecutive quarters. Eastern Hemisphere operations grew revenue 11% sequentially, resulting from record revenues in both of our regions, and operating income was up 23%.

“Middle East / Asia, our fastest growing market, improved revenue 12% and operating income 17% sequentially. This across the board growth was led by higher stimulation, wireline, and fluids activity in Malaysia, and improved sales in China.

Read the entire Halliburton earnings report


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