Oil and Gas Tumble on World Bank Report, More Rigs For Petrobras?

"Oil, Gasoline Tumble as World Bank Predicts a Deeper Recession"
Crude oil fell more than $2 and gasoline tumbled after the World Bank said the global recession will be deeper than forecast, bolstering concern that fuel consumption will remain depressed. Oil dropped as much as 4.7 percent after the bank projected the global economy will contract 2.9 percent this year, more than its previously forecast decrease of 1.7 percent. Prices also declined as the dollar strengthened, reducing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. “We’re lower because reality is asserting itself,”.....Complete Story

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"Petrobras to Reel in More Rigs for Offshore Santos Basin"
Brazilian state-run energy giant Petrobras (PBR) expects to bring up to four more drilling rigs to a prospect in the offshore Santos Basin in the second half of the year. The ultra-deepwater rigs will be used to "attack" areas in the subsalt region in the Santos Basin, Petrobras' Mario Carminatti told the local Estado news agency. The Santos Basin is home to the Tupi field, the Western Hemisphere's largest oil discovery in more than 30 years.....Complete Story

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"Oil’s Channel Break May Signal End to Rally"
Oil prices moved out of a so called ascending channel that started in April, signaling crude’s rally may falter. Crude oil for July delivery fell 2.6 percent to $69.55 a barrel on June 19, the biggest drop for the front-month contract in two weeks. It was the first close outside a channel that’s bounded intraday highs and lows during the last two months, Zug, Switzerland-based consultant Petromatrix GmbH said today. “The ascending channel was invalidated for the first time and this clearly need to be taken as a negative,” Petromatrix managing director Olivier Jakob said in a note to clients.....Complete Story

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Crude Oil Bears Seem To Have Near Term Advantage

Crude oil was lower overnight and is trading below the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.66. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.66 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree decline into the end of June.

If July resumes this spring's rally, the 38% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target.

Crude oil pivot point for Monday is 70.76

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 70.75
Second resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 73.23

First support is the overnight low crossing at 67.89
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 64.95

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Natural gas was lower overnight as it extends last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.926 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

If July renews this month's rally, May's high crossing at 4.690 is the next upside target.

Natural gas pivot point for Monday is 4.07

First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 4.387
Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.690

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.990
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.926

Could This Be Crude Oil's New Trading Range?

I couldn't resist posting this chart from one of my favorite swing traders Atilla and his blog xtrends. Atilla has become popular this year as a die hard bear, an unfair title as he is just a realistic trader that looks at long term trends. And yes it's true, we are still in a bear market.

Here is his current view on the trading range we are in for crude oil

Just click on the chart to enlarge.....

Crude Oil Trading Small Specs

If you haven't visited or subscribed to Rich Olney's "Crude Oil Trading Small Specs" site, it's time you did. Rich provides some of the best crude oil trading calls available, worth every bit of the small fee he charges.

Here is his weekend call for June 20th....

"Crude Oil Thoughts"

Oh so close to a sell signal on the daily but not yet. The daily is still on a buy. Every pull back has been a buy so is this time diff? If the FED stays the course, which I think they will, Crude should make new highs before the pull back happens that everyone is looking for. I will add more to this string later but the commercials increased their OI last week and reduced their net short position as well not bearish action by any means. Also the USO chart is misleading since it is the second derivative and we are in contango market use the futures contract..........(USO chart paints a diff picture).

I think we can get the big sell off many are looking for if the FED changes their bias statement to indicate a move away from quantitative easing (QE). The current US QE policy is the main reason for the oil rise and dollar weakness. So that is what oil traders will be looking for a change to the current QE policy in the Wednesday FED statement. If no change to QE policy then more of the same declining dollar and rising crude oil. So if you are shorting oil looking for an IT move down then you are betting that the FED will change their QE stance on Wednesday IMHO.

You can see on the chart below from the 2008 bull market that 38.2% and 50% retracements on the daily chart were par for the course and a buying opportunity every single time. Buying the pull backs at the the 38.2% and 50% retracements was the way to go till the trendline on the daily broke.

Crude is currently at the 50% retrace at 69.90 which is the half way mark between the previous swing low at 65.92 and swing high at 73.90. So my point is the daily trend line is not broken, and we are at the 50% from the last swing low to swing high which when looking at the last bull market was a golden opportunity to buy. That's what has me long here despite all the bearishness on crude.....Click Here For His Complete Post and Charts

Eric Bolling: Street Meat, Got gas?

I don't know about you but I miss Eric Bolling on CNBC. Seems like they dump anyone with a mind of their own. You can't argue this, Eric Bolling knows the energy sector. Check out this video from Fox Business, Street Meat, are oil prices surging?

Crude Oil Post Key Reversal Down Day on Friday

Crude oil posted a key reversal down on Friday and closed below the 10 day moving average crossing at 70.72 signaling that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday.

Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.33 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 73.23
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38

First support is today's low crossing at 68.90
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.33

Energy Prices Drop, With Gas Leading The Way

Benchmark crude for July delivery dropped $1.09 to $70.28 a barrel on Friday in light trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange as the contract was set to close Monday.

The August contract fell $1.18 to $70.73 a barrel.

The slump in crude came as gasoline markets showed the first signs this week that an extended rally in pump prices is nearing an end after 52 straight days of price increases.

Gasoline for July delivery fell 6.85 cents Friday to $1.9610 a gallon.

Crude prices have doubled their value in three months, hitting a high for the year of $73.23 a barrel last week.....Complete Story

Crude Attempts To Extend Trading Range To The Upside

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the current narrow trading range, which began last Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish with the overnight rally hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July resumes this spring's rally, the 38% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.46 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Friday's pivot point for crude oil is 71.10

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 73.23
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 69.00
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.46

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Natural Gas Rally Appears to be on Hold

Natural gas closed lower on Thursday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday.

Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends this week's rally, May's high crossing at 4.690 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.892 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.387
Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.690

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.948
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.893

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Thursday Proves To Be Consolidation Day For Crude Oil

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday.

Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that a short
term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 67.90 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 73.23
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 69.00
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 67.90

Analyst: Crude Oil Market Looking Tired Here

"Oil Fluctuates on Signals Recession Easing, Fuel Supplies Gain"
Crude oil fluctuated in New York after reports signaled that the U.S. recession is easing and as fuel inventories increased. Oil climbed from the day’s lows after manufacturing in the Philadelphia region contracted in June at the slowest pace in nine months. U.S. supplies of gasoline and distillate fuel, a category that includes diesel and heating oil, rose last week, the Energy Department said yesterday. “The market is looking a bit tired here,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst with Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “The fundamentals are really poor, with poor demand and excess supply. The recent rally has priced in quite a lot of good news that hasn’t had any impact on the energy.....Complete Story

Crude Oil Continues Narrow Trading Range

Crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends the current narrow trading range, which began last Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 67.89 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If July resumes this spring's rally, the 38% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target.

Thursday's pivot point for crude oil, our line in the sand is 70.37

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 73.23
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 69.00
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 67.89

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Natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends this week's rally, May's high crossing at 4.690 is the next upside target.

Thursday pivot point for natural gas is 4.19

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.387
Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.690

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.968
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.903

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U.S. Dollar Closes Lower On Wednesday

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday increasing the chance of crude oil moving higher. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September renews the rally off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 83.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 79.62 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 81.97
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.69

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 79.62
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 78.83

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Crude Consolidates Decline With High Range Close

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 67.43 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 73.23
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38

First support is today's low crossing at 69.00
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 67.43

New Video: S&P 500 - A Correction or a Major Turn?

With the S&P 500 falling to a fresh two week low, the big question is....is this a correction, or the start of a major trend on the downside?

We have just finished a short video that details many of the key concerns that we have for this market. If you have not seen our videos before you may enjoy this one. This video does not require a plug-in.

The video is free to watch and there is no need to register. We would like to get your feedback about this video so please leave a comment here on our blog.

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Crude Oil Lower On Demand Concerns

Crude oil was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this spring's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 67.38 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If July extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 70.94

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 73.23
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38

First support is the overnight low crossing at 69.66
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 67.38

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U.S. Dollar Post Inside Day, Indicators Remain Bullish

The U.S. Dollar posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

As of 10:30 EST the dollar was slightly higher in the over night session increasing the likelihood of a lower open in crude oil Wednesday morning. Supporting the bears case that a near term high in crude is in.

If September renews the rally off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 83.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 79.62 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 81.97
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.69

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 79.62
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 78.83

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Crude Oil Closes Lower, Sets Up Lower Open Wednesday

Crude oil closed slightly lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidated some of this spring's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near.

If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 66.90 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 73.23
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 69.87
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 66.90

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Natural Gas Consolidates Monday's Rally

Natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday.

Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends Monday's rally, May's high crossing at 4.690 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.869 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.387
Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.690

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.869
Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.550

Crude Oil Falls as Equities Extend Losses, Daniel Bruno's Crude Oil Call

"Crude Oil Falls as Equities Extend Losses, Dollar Rebounds"
Crude oil fell, erasing earlier gains, as U.S. equities dropped and the dollar rebounded from intraday lows, reducing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. Oil retreated from gains of 3 percent, as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped as much as 1.3 percent. The U.S. currency strengthened to $1.3832 against the euro after touching $1.3933, the weakest level since May 21. “We started the day out with the idea that we’d have both a weaker dollar and a higher.....Complete Story

"Sinopec Plans 1st Deep Water Well in South China Sea"
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. is aiming to drill its first deepwater well next year in the South China Sea, ending a moratorium on exploration in waters close to acreage disputed by Vietnam, two company officials said Tuesday. The company, known as Sinopec, has begun a 3D seismic survey in an area of 1,250 square kilometers in the Qiongdongnan basin and drilling at the best prospects will follow, said the officials, declining to be named.Sinopec has a license to explore more than 8,000 sq km in the Qiongdongnan basin, including some blocks in territorial waters claimed by Vietnam.....Complete Story

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"Analyst Daniel Bruno: Crude Oil Poised to Break $79, Head to $93"
Crude oil is poised to break $79 and rise to at least $93 a barrel by late August, according to technical analysis by fund manager Daniel Bruno, reaffirming a prediction he first made in December. “Crude held above $70 a barrel support yesterday, which is a good sign,” said Bruno, the head of CEO Capital Management in New York and a chartered market technician. “If crude maintains $70, there could be a breakout above $79 by the end of June.” Bruno on Dec. 23 called for crude to rebound from below $40 a barrel up to $93. He said yesterday in a telephone interview that crude was.....Complete Story

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