New Video: An Indicator we Can't Ignore, an Insight Into The CRB Index

In our latest video we look into an important indicator that none of us can ignore. Including our elected officials!

This is an indicator which has been around since 1957 and has accurately forecasted every inflationary and deflationary cycle since.

If you only watch one of our videos today make it this one. Weather you trade stocks, futures or commodities you have to pay close attention to world trade trends, and this is the indicator to track.

Just Click Here to watch our third video on this indicator.

Take a few minutes to watch today's short video and see how you can benefit from this indicator. As always the video is free to watch and there is no need to register.

Here is the most recent video in the series from June 9th My Favorite Indicator Of Inflation....And It's Not Gold!.

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Refining Stocks with Dan Dicker

Expert trader Dan Dicker says to buy stocks of refining companies when they report earnings and then sell the stocks next spring.

Weekend Update: UNG - US Natural Gas Fund ETF

Considering how UNG has been trading in the past few months, this weeks trading was "relatively" stable. This is evidenced by the width of its Bollinger Bands which are tighter than normal. Additionally, UNG is trading within its Bollinger Bands. This is a normal condition and suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold relative to the recent price action.

UNG's MACD is indicating a weak bearish signal. Although the indicator is above the critical level of 0, which implies that the underlying moving averages are bullish, the MACD has crossed below its 9day moving average or signal line. This suggests that positive momentum has begun to slow.

On Friday one of our favorite buy/sell indicators, the Parabolic Sar, showed the UNG closing above the trigger point for the Parabolic SAR and is currently registering a bullish signal. The current Significant Point, below which a reversal to the bearish side would occur, is 10.99.

The Stochastic Oscillator is registering a bearish signal as the %K is below the %D. However, UNG is neither overbought nor oversold.

The RSI is currently at 46.56%, just below the critical 50% line which indicates that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. Keep an eye on the trend of the RSI to see if the internal strength of UNG is improving or weakening.

Smart Scan Chart Analysis of UNG

Our "Smart Scan" technology shows a strong downtrend in place and that downtrend looks to continues negative longer term and for this market to remain weak. If trading this strong Downtrend make sure to use tight money management stops. The triangle Smart Scan is showing indicates the presence of a very strong trend that is being driven by strong forces and insiders.

Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, UNG scored -90 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

+10......Last Hour Close Above 5 Hour Moving Average
-15......New 3 Day Low on Thursday
-20......Last Price Below 20 Day Moving Average
-25......New 3 Week Low, Week Ending October 17th
-30......New 3 Month Low in September
-90......Total Score



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Crude Oil Closes Lower on Strength in The U.S. Dollar

Crude oil closed lower [80.50] due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.28 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 84.64 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 82.00
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level at 84.64

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.29
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.28

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Natural gas closed lower [4.787] on Friday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Today's decline turned stochastics and the RSI bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 5.280 is the next downside target.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 5.989
Second resistance is June's high crossing at 6.170

First support is today's low crossing at 5.473
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.280

5 Markets & 5 Ways To Improve Your Trading Profits In 2009

The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 73.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.28 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.68
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.28

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 75.09
Second resistance is monthly support crossing at 73.39

Are the U.S. Dollar and Crude Oil Joined at the Hip?

It would certainly appear that way, as continued weakness in the U.S. Dollar has sparked a stampede into the Crude Oil market lately. On Wednesday, the lead month December Crude Oil futures soared to yearly highs, nearly touching the $82.00 price level. This was the highest nearby futures price since October of 2008. Among the many reasons behind Oil's price rise are signs of an economic rebound, especially in Asia, and to a lesser extent in the U.S. and Europe. The recovery is expected to increase the demand for Oil worldwide as industrial demand improves. However, looking at near term supply and demand in the U.S., the high prices do not seemed justified. Oil stocks (excluding the SPR) are up 10 % from year ago levels. Gasoline supplies are up 7.5% and Distillate Fuel Oil up 33.2% as of October 16th, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Not only are U.S. Oil inventories higher than last year, but poor refining margins have caused refiners to curtail production.

Wednesday's EIA energy stocks report showed refinery utilization stood at 81.1% last week. This compares to 84.8% in 2008 and the 3 year average of 86.03 during the same time period. So if refiners (who are actual users of Oil) are curtailing their Crude purchases, then who is buying and why? Large speculative traders are holding sizeable net long positions in Crude Oil, Gasoline, and Heating Oil according to the Commitment of Traders report. As of October 13th, large non-commercial traders were net long 151,631 Crude Oil contracts, 40,644 Gasoline contracts, and 35,271 Heating Oil contracts. This was up a cumulative 28,930 contracts for the week and shows that new buying was taking place as prices rose.....Read the entire article and charts.

Crude Oil Futures May Decline on Ample Stockpiles, Survey Shows

Crude oil futures may fall next week on speculation that U.S. inventories are sufficient to meet weakening demand. Eighteen of 36 analysts, or 50 percent, said oil will drop through Oct. 30. Twelve respondents, or 33 percent, forecast that the market will rise and six said prices will be little changed. Last week, analysts were split over whether prices would rise or fall.

“There is significant downside risk for crude oil,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst with Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “Inventories remain high and demand is still weak.” Crude oil stockpiles rose 1.31 million barrels to 339.1 million last week, the U.S. Energy Department said in a report Oct. 21. The gain left inventories 9.4 percent above the five year average for the period. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, were 30 percent higher than average, the department said.....Read the entire article.

Oil Trades Slightly Lower Overnight on Short Covering in The U.S. Dollar

Crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If December extends this month's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 84.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.33 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Friday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 80.88

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 82.00
Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 84.83

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.39
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.33

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Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 5.280 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If December extends this rally, June's high crossing at 6.170 then the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 6.450 are the next upside targets.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 5.989.
Second resistance is June's high crossing at 6.170.

First support is Thursday's low crossing at 5.580
Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 5.280

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The U.S. Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 73.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.27 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.66
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.27

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 75.08
Second support is monthly support crossing at 73.39

Crude Oil and Natural Gas Daily Technical Outlook

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil turns sideway after reaching 82 level and met 100% projection of 58.32 to 75 from 65.05 at 81.72. Upside momentum is diminishing a bit but after all, further rise is still expected with 77.61 remains intact. Sustained trading above 81.72 will pave the way to next medium term fibonacci level at 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. On the downside, though, below 77.61 will indicate that a short term top is likely in place, possibly with bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Deeper decline should then be seen to 75 resistance turned support and below.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 75.0 resistance confirms that medium term rebound from 33.2 has resumed and further rally should be seen. Note that crude oil is now in an important resistance zone of 76.77/90.24 (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2). As we're expecting rise from 33.2 to conclude in this zone, we'll look for sign of loss of momentum in the current rise, as well as reversal sign. Nevertheless, note that break of 65.05 is needed to indicate that crude oil has topped out. Otherwise, further rise is still in favor.....here is the charts.

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Natural gas' retreat from 5.318 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, further rally is still in favor as long as 4.35 support holds and break of 5.318 will target 38.2% retracement of 13.64 to 2.409 at 6.7 next. However, considering bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD, break of 4.35 will indicate that a short term top is formed and deeper pull back should then be seen instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005. The whole consolidation might have completed at 2.409 after meeting 100% projection of 15.78 to 4.593 from 13.69 at 2.50. We'll prefer the bullish case as long 55 days EMA (now at 4.119 holds) and expect the current rise from 2.409 to extend further to 61.8% retracement of 13.64 to 2.409 at 9.38 in medium term.....here is the charts.

Phil Flynn: Economic Smack Down

I am trying to figure out who is getting beat up worse, the refiners or the dollar. The smack down on refiners and the dollar send oil on another bullish adventure as commodity price inflation starts to show its adverse economic effects. Refiners for the second week in a row kept refinery runs at historically low levels causing another large drop in gasoline supply which drove RBOB gasoline futures to a seven week high.

The Energy Information Agency reported that refinery use rates rose 0.2 percentage point to 81.1 well below average for this time of year with finished gasoline production at a paltry 8.46 million barrels a day. According to Bloomberg News that was the second week in a row that production fell below 8.5 million barrels and the lowest production was since the week of February 6. The EIA reported that gas supplies fell 2.3 million barrels in the latest week which followed a 5 million barrel plus drop in supply from the week before. Gasoline supply which were almost 7% above the five year average a few weeks ago are now just 3.3% above the five year average. Refiners might as well be on strike as they cannot continue to produce a product that people are buying less of as input prices like crude go up and the dollar weakens. The EIA reported that gasoline demand 3.3 percent from the prior week to an average 8.95 million barrels a day which was the lowest in four weeks.

Add to that another dollar drubbing which helped send oil soaring to another new high. The euro gained strength on speculation that rates in the “zone” could be rising and broke through the $150 level versus the U.S. dollar for the first time in 14 months. Overnight China 8.9% GDP growth was stimulating but is raising questions how long the Chinese government can fuel the growth. Car sales in China were impressive but came on the back of government tax breaks. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke wants the Chinese to spend more but also let the yuan re-adjust so the trade deficit between the US and China can narrow. Early on commodity prices are not that impressed with the Chinese GDP.

Now as oil prices go above $80 OPEC is worried what may happen to demand. Dow Jones is reporting that, “The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will increase its output quota in December, if inventories fall and oil prices and the economy keep recovering", the group's secretary general said Thursday. "If this price continues, if we see the stocks go back to the normal level" and the global economy continues to recover, "I am sure our member countries will take the decision to increase production," Abdalla Salem el-Badri told reporters. He subsequently added another condition to increase output would be "an end to floating storage." OPEC is due to meet next on Dec. 22 in Luanda, Angola. “OPEC is watching what is happening to US refiners and is aware that prices are now at a level that will start a new round of demand destruction and probably will start trying to jawbone the market down. They may be forced to start cheating on production to get prices under control. This would really be a shame because you know how these guys hate to cheat.

The weak dollar is having an impact on everything. How do you protect yourself in a weak dollar environment? Buying precious metals may be one way. If you think that you cannot afford to get in well maybe you are wrong. What if I told you could get into precious metals for as low as $50! Find out how! Just call me at 800-935-6487 or email me. Check me out every day on the Fox Business Network! And if you want a brokerage firm that does things right, you need to be with PFGBest! Whatever you're trading needs we can handle it: cash, grains metals, gold coins, bars and even stocks. If your broker is not doing enough for you call me at 800-935-6487 or email me at pflynn@pfgbest.com. Our platforms are great and the service beyond compare!

Buy December crude at 7427 - stop 7300.
Buy December RBOB at 18000 - stop 17800.
Buy December heating oil at 19500 - stop 19300.
Buy December natural gas at 510 - stop 470.

Phil Flynn @ PFGBEST Research Team
800.462.4691
pflynn@pfgbest.com

Where is Crude Oil Headed on Friday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.

Crude Oil Trades Lower as Dollar Bears Fail to Defend $75

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday.

If December extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 84.64 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 73.59 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 82.00
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level at 84.64

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.50
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 73.59

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Natural gas closed lower on Thursday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Despite today's decline, stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If December extends the rally off September's low, June's high crossing at 6.170 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 5.280 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 5.989
Second resistance is June's high crossing at 6.170

First support is today's low crossing at 5.580
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.280

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 73.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.36 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.79
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.36

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 75.09
Second resistance is monthly support crossing at 73.39

Weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage Report

Working gas in storage was 3,734 Bcf as of Friday, October 16, 2009, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 18 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 397 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 432 Bcf above the 5 year average of 3,302 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 114 Bcf above the 5 year average following net injections of 11 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 252 Bcf above the 5 year average of 935 Bcf after a net injection of 5 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 65 Bcf above the 5 year average after a net addition of 2 Bcf. At 3,734 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5 year historical range.



Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2004 through 2008.

Mid Week Oil and Natural Gas Trading Report

Commodities so far this week have not changed much. But I can point out a few things for us to watch Thursday and Friday.

Energy – Oil USO Fund – Energy Stocks XLE Fund
We are seeing a similar pattern in the energy sector. Oil had a nice move higher today while energy stocks sold off. Stocks are starting to fall out of favor.



Natural Gas – UNG Fund
Natural gas is still in a bear market and trading under a major resistance trend line. This commodity could go either way so I am going to wait for the odds to be more on my side before jumping on board with a long or a short trade.



Mid-Week Oil and Nat Gas Conclusion:
The market is starting to look and feel top heavy with many indicators and price action patterns giving cross signals. While the market could continue to rocket higher with new money getting dumped in from average investors because of solid 3rd quarter earnings, we must be cautious by tightening our stops and take some profits off the table. Until we get a short term oversold market condition I am trading very conservatively.

Waiting for a good trade is crucial in trading. If you always want to trade and force positions when the market is choppy you end up with lower probability trades.

To receive Chris Vermeulen's free trading reports just The Gold N Oil Guy.

Record Supplies Have Not Deterred Natural Gas Bulls

The old saying 'every dog has its day' could certainly apply to the Natural Gas futures market as the December futures contract has risen to highs not seen since June, despite a record amount of natural gas in storage. It is still too early to tell to what extent the recent rally may be due to speculative short covering. The most recent Commitment of Traders report shows large non commercial traders were holding a net short position of 64,050 contracts as of October 13th. This was a decline of 1,902 contracts for the week and does not take into account the activity that occurred during the nearly 0.750 point rally since the report was released. Also adding a bit of bullish fuel to the recent rally are predictions that a weak El Nino weather pattern may result in a colder than normal winter.

If true, it may cause utilities Gas usage for heating demand to increase, helping to cut into the current burdensome supplies. Traders are also beginning to anticipate an uptick in industrial demand now that there are signs that the worst of the recession is behind us and an improvement in industrial production may not be far off. However, until we start to see fresh buying entering the market, any major rally attempts could be met with eager sellers, especially with futures trading above cash prices. Traders should monitor government data to gauge the extent of any economic recovery, as Natural Gas futures have been acting as a barometer to economic conditions here in the U.S......read the entire article and charts.

Oil Surges to One Year High on U.S. Gasoline Supply Decline

Crude oil rose above $81 a barrel in New York for the first time in a year and gasoline surged after a U.S. Energy Department report showed a greater than forecast drop in supplies of the motor fuel. Gasoline stockpiles fell 2.21 million barrels, more than twice the median of analyst forecasts, to 206.9 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 16, according to the department’s report. Oil also advanced as U.S. equities increased and the dollar slipped against the euro, bolstering the appeal of commodities.

“The gasoline number has clearly changed the landscape,” said John Kilduff, senior vice president of energy at MF Global in New York. “The industry is seen constraining fuel supply, which is underpinning the market.” Crude oil for December delivery climbed $2.52, or 3.2 percent, to $81.64 a barrel at 12:59 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $81.73, the highest since Oct. 14, 2008. Prices are up 82 percent this year.

Oil traded at $78.76 a barrel before the release of the report at 10:30 a.m. in Washington. Gasoline for November delivery climbed 5.78 cents, or 2.9 percent, to $2.0455 a gallon in New York. Futures touched $2.0534, the highest since Aug. 31. Prices are up for an eighth day.....Read the entire article.

Is the NASDAQ Now in Thin Air?

Of the three major indexes we track: DOW, NASDAQ and the S&P 500, only the NASDAQ is in thin air.

What do I mean by thin air? So far the NASDAQ is the only index to make it past the 50% Fibonacci retracement levels as measured from the highs seen in 2007 and the lows that were made in March of this year.

Both the Dow and the S&P 500 have rallied strongly from their March lows but have not made it over the 50% retracement level.

Many professional traders - myself included - are looking at the NASDAQ’s Fibonacci retracement as it represents a potentially key turning point for this year’s market.

While not all the pieces are in place to go short or get out of long positions, one of the first clues is being put in place today by the Japanese candlestick charts.

In our new video, we share with you the NASDAQ retracement levels, as well as one of the key components that could lead to a potential reversal to the downside.

Just Click Here to watch the video, and as always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register.

Please feel free to leave a comment and let our readers know what you think of the video and the direction of the NASDAQ.

Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending October 16, 2009

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.1 million barrels per day during the
week ending October 16, 27 thousand barrels per day under the previous week's
average. Refineries operated at 81.1 percent of their operable capacity last
week. Gasoline production was virtually unchanged last week, averaging 8.5
million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased slightly last
week, averaging 3.9 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 8.7 million barrels per day last week, down 32
thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks,
crude oil imports have averaged 9.0 million barrels per day, 310 thousand
barrels per day below the same four week period last year. Total motor gasoline
imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components)
last week averaged 649 thousand barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports
averaged 120 thousand barrels per day last week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.3 million barrels from the previous week. At
339.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper boundary
of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories
decreased by 2.3 million barrels last week, and are near the upper limit of the
average range. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending
components increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.8
million barrels, and are above the upper boundary of the average range for this
time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 1.4 million barrels
last week and are at the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial
petroleum inventories decreased by 4.2 million barrels last week, and are above
the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

Total products supplied over the last four week period has averaged 18.8
million barrels per day, down by 0.1 percent compared to the similar period
last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged about
9.2 million barrels per day, up by 4.2 percent from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel demand has averaged 3.5 million barrels per day over the last
four weeks, down by 12.1 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel
demand is 3.2 percent lower over the last four weeks compared to the same
four week period last year.

Crude Oil Lower on Profit Taking, Euro Weakness

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

While the Euro was slightly higher overnight day traders are looking at bearish set ups in the Euro with a possibility of trading as low as 148.34 putting additional pressure on crude oil.

If December extends this rally, weekly resistance crossing at 84.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 72.69 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 79.12

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 80.40
Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 84.83

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.27
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 72.69

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Natural gas was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last Thursday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If December extends this rally, June's high crossing at 6.170 then the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 6.450 are the next upside targets. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 5.200 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Natural gas pivot point for Wednesday is 5.077

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 5.989
Second resistance is June's high crossing at 6.170

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.634
Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 5.280

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The U.S. Dollar was lower overnight as it extends last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 73.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.47 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.91
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.47

First support is Monday's low crossing at 75.25
Second support is monthly support crossing at 73.39

Oil Falls From a One Year High as Stocks Decline, Dollar Climbs

Crude oil fell from a one year high as U.S. equities dropped and the dollar rebounded, reducing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. Oil declined for the first time in nine days as a disappointing report on housing starts overshadowed better than estimated earnings at companies from Apple Inc. to Pfizer Inc. Futures traded above $80 early today as the Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, weakened to its lowest level since August 2008.

“Oil is mainly taking its cue from what’s happening in the financial markets,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates, a Galena, Illinois, consultant. “This shouldn’t be too much of a surprise after the good run we’ve had to the upside.” Crude oil for November delivery fell 81 cents, or 1 percent, to $78.80 a barrel at 10:39 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, prices rose as much as 0.6 percent to $80.05 a barrel, the first time the front-month contract has traded above $80 since Oct. 14, 2008. Futures are heading for the biggest drop since Oct. 7. The November contract expires today. More active December futures declined 84 cents.....Read the entire article.

Bloomberg Analysis: Oil Breaks Resistance, May Climb to $90

Crude oil has breached a key resistance level of $76.28 a barrel, giving it the “capacity” to rise to just under $90 based on Fibonacci retracements, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said. Oil, which is trading near a one year high in New York, is “taking a pause” to consolidate before moving up toward $89.85 a barrel, said Geoff Clear, the Singapore based head of Asian commodities at ANZ.

“We saw a break above $76.28 a barrel, that was the big ‘break up’ level,” Clear said. “We’re in a new range.” Crude prices have surged 83 percent since March 5 while the Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against those of six major U.S. trading partners, has fallen 16 percent since then. The sliding U.S. dollar and a recovery in equity markets prompted investors to buy commodities as an inflation hedge.

Crude may encounter its next resistance level at $83.60, according to Clear. “If we start to get close to the $83.60 level, it’s the next targeted Fibonacci retracement that I can see in the market,” Clear said. “Prices will do a bit of work below $83.60 initially, and then we’ll go on from there”.....Read the entire article.