Crude Oil Falls on Speculation U.S. Supplies to Rebound on Delayed Cargoes

Oil rose above $80 a barrel after the government reported that U.S. crude and fuel supplies dropped as refineries idled units and imports declined. Oil inventories dropped 887,000 barrels to 336.8 million last week, the Energy Department said. Stockpiles were forecast to increase by 300,000 barrels, according a Bloomberg News survey of analysts. Inventories of gasoline and distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, also declined.

“There were draws in crude oil, gasoline and distillates, so the initial numbers looked very bullish,” said Rick Mueller, a director of oil markets at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. Crude oil for December delivery rose 43 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $79.57 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have traded between $74.79 and $82 since Oct. 15. Prices are up 78 percent this year.....Read the entire article.

Weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 13.8 million barrels per day during the week ending November 13, 31 thousand barrels per day below the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 79 percent of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.1 million barrels per day. Distillate
fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.0 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 8.6 million barrels per day last week, down 77 thousand barrels per day from the previous week.

Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 8.6 million barrels per day, 1.5 million barrels per day below the same four week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 584 thousand barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports
averaged 152 thousand barrels per day last week. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 336.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil
inventories are slightly above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.3 million barrels, and are above the upper boundary of the average range for this time of year.....Read the entire report.

Some OPEC Nations Charge Ahead Despite Slow Oil Demand

Energy forecasters increasingly predict slowing growth in global oil demand in the years ahead, but some OPEC nations are heading in the opposite direction and ramping up their capacity to pump oil. Qatar, for example, is set to raise its oil production capacity early next year from an existing field known as Al Shaheen. The more than $6 billion expansion project brightens the revenue prospects of the Mideast state but highlights a bigger problem brewing for its partners in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

After keeping a tight tether on supply in recent years by cautiously investing, the 12 nation cartel finds itself battling an untimely convergence of lackluster consumption that magnifies its own rising supply capacity, which may in turn reignite old battles between members over market share and ultimately push oil prices lower.....Read the entire article.

What do market wizards have in common?

Stronger Dollar Limits Buying Interest in Crude Oil

Crude oil closed up $0.21 at $79.11 a barrel today. Prices closed near mid range today. A stronger U.S. dollar limited buying interest in crude today. Bulls have the near term technical advantage in crude oil. The next downside price objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at last week's low of $75.57.

Natural gas closed down 7.3 cents at $4.541 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. Serious near term chart damage has occurred recently. Bears have the solid near term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $5.00.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 47 points at 75.39 today. Prices closed near mid range today and were supported on tepid short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 77.00.

For a free online tour of MarketClub....a risk FREE 30 day test drive...Just Click Here

Oil Supply Set to Grow Through 2030 with No Peak Evident

Global oil productive capacity will grow though 2030 with no evidence of a peak of supply before that time, according to a new report by IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates based on analysis of more than 10,000 projects around the globe. The report, The Future of Global Oil Supply: Understanding the Building Blocks extends IHS CERA's global oil outlook through 2030 and expects global oil productive capacity to grow to as much as 115 million barrels per day (mbd) through that period from the current level of 92 mbd, a 25 percent increase. Post 2030 supply could struggle to meet demand but this would take the form of a decades long "undulating plateau" rather than a sharp fall, the report says.

"There is more than an adequate inventory of physical resources available to increase supply to meet anticipated levels of demand through 2030," said Peter Jackson. "It would be easy to interpret the market and oil price trends from 2003 through 2009 in isolation to support the belief that a peak in global supply has passed or is imminent. But this only illustrates that the market continues to act as the shock absorber of major volatility".....Read the entire article.

Oil Gains as Dollar Strengthens, Fuel Supplies Forecast to Drop

Crude oil rose in New York as the dollar climbed and before a report that will probably show that U.S. fuel supplies declined. Oil rebounded after slipping as much as 1 percent as the U.S. currency rose against the euro for the first time in three days. An Energy Department report tomorrow will probably show that supplies of gasoline and distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, declined last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

“Everything we have been seeing can be pegged to what’s happening in the equities and the dollar,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. Attention is now shifting to the weekly supply reports, he said.
Crude oil for December delivery rose 31 cents to $79.21 a barrel at 12:24 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange after dropping as low as $78.14. Prices are up 78 percent this year.....Read the entire post.

Crude Oil Bulls Appear to Regain The Momentum

Crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.95 would signal that a short term low has been posted. If December renews last week's decline, the 50% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 73.76 is the next downside target.

Tuesday's pivot for crude oil is 78.23

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.95
Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 81.06

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 75.57
Second support is the 50% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 73.76

While it last, Get 10 Trading Lessons FREE

Natural gas was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally but remains above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.571. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish signaling that additional short covering gains are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.901 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, monthly support crossing at 3.996 is the next downside target.

Natural gas pivot point for Tuesday is 4.551

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.656
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.901

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 4.287
Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.996

Learn to Trade Forex in Just 90 Seconds!

The U.S. Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.75 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market. If December extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 73.39 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.45
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.75

First support is Monday's low crossing at 74.75
Second support is monthly support crossing at 73.39

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

Open Forex Demo Account

Oil Rises the Most in Six Weeks on Weaker Dollar, Equity Gain

Crude oil rose the most in six weeks as the dollar weakened and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index strengthened to a 13 month high, bolstering confidence that the global economy and energy demand are recovering. Oil gained 3.3 percent as the U.S. currency’s drop encouraged the purchase of alternative investments. Stocks climbed after U.S. retail sales increased more than forecast and Asian government leaders pledged to maintain economic stimulus spending. The gross domestic product of Japan, the third biggest oil consumer, grew at a 4.8 percent pace in the third quarter.

“The dollar is weaker and stocks are up, both of which are helping send prices higher,” said Ric Navy, a broker at BNP Paribas SA in New York. “The funds are still coming in, and that should push the market higher.” Crude oil for December delivery rose $2.55 to settle at $78.90 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the biggest gain since Sept. 30. Oil has traded between $74.79 and $82 since Oct. 15. Futures are up 77 percent this year.....Read the entire article.

ETF Commodity Trading Analysis & Charts - USO & UNG

Commodities continue to perform well as the US dollar tests the October lows. If we step back and take a look at the weekly charts of the gold, silver, oil and natural gas ETFs we can get a better feel for what to expect in the coming week.

Trading commodity ETFs can be a very fun and profitable experience when done correctly. The first things I always analyze are the longer time frame charts. This allows me to see past support and resistance levels and determine whether the investment is trending up, down or sideways.

Let’s take a look at crude oil and natural gas.

USO Fund – Weekly Chart
The USO fund continues to look bullish as it consolidates the breakout with volume getting lighter. We could see a bounce this week and if we do I will be watching for a low risk entry setup.


UNG Fund – Weekly Chart
UNG continues to trend down and under perform the market. The last time UNG dropped to this level we had a nice bounce generating a 30% move in 3 weeks. But I don’t think that will happen this time. The price has been sliding lower slowly on light volume. This type of price action is not as predictable when compared to others. I will wait for a proper setup before buying an oversold bounce or shorting after a bounce.


Commodity ETF Trading Conclusion:
The weekly charts don’t lie. Trade with the underlying weekly trend and you will put the odds in your favor. I use the daily chart and 30 minute intraday charts for timing my trades as those time frames have proven to be very accurate with commodity ETF investments.

WE continue to be hold our golden rocket stocks and GLD fund. If the market co operates this week we could get some trading signals for both Canadian and US ETF funds.

Just Click Here to receive the weekly Gold and Oil Guy.Com Trading Newsletter

What Do Stock Market Wizards Have in Common?

How much do you think you could learn if you had a chance to sit down with over 15 of the most successful day, value, and long term investors of all time? Do you think you’d finally get that one piece of advice that takes your trading from OK to extraordinary? Today you have the chance to pick the brain of one man who has sat down with experts and got your top questions answered.

The key ingredient with ‘Super Traders’ isn’t as complicated as you think, as most of them share the same traits and behavioral patterns, but it’s how they put them to work in the markets that sets them apart.

Just visit this link to watch the seminar that brings the experts to you!

Don’t delay and once you visit the seminar you’ll notice 3 other seminars....that’s a special bonus just for you, from me!

Happy Trading!
Ray C. Parrish
CEO/President The Crude Oil Trader

Oil Rises From One Month Low on Speculation Demand to Increase

Crude oil rose from a one month low on speculation demand will increase as the global economy recovers from its worst recession since World War II. A report today in the U.S., the world’s largest oil user, will probably show New York manufacturing expanded for a fourth month in October, based on the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Oil also rose as the dollar declined, increasing the investment appeal of commodities and pushing up the price producers must seek to maintain purchasing power.

Oil “has been a trade based on the recovery story and that hasn’t changed,” said Toby Hassall, a research analyst with CWA Global Markets in Sydney. “The weakness in the U.S. dollar should remain a pretty supportive factor.” Crude oil for December delivery rose as much as 72 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $77.07 a barrel in after hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $77 at 8:29 a.m. in Singapore. The contract fell 59 cents to $76.35 a barrel on Nov. 13, the lowest settlement since Oct. 14, after an unexpected decline in U.S. consumer confidence. Prices fell 1.4 percent last week as U.S. jobless claims increased, fuel stockpiles rose and the nation’s refiners reduced operating rates to a 13 month low.....Read the entire article.

New Video: Has Gold Topped Out for the Year?

Yesterday the gold market took its first corrective action on the downside. The question many traders will have now is, have we hit the high end for gold this year?



In our latest video we examine that question in some of the internals that we see and feel are important in this market.

Just Click Here to watch the video and as always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. Please take a minute to leave a comment and let us know what you think about the direction of gold.

Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO The Crude Oil Trader

Phil Flynn: Jobless Friday!

Is it possible that our US jobless recovery might not be so jobless after all? Weekly jobless claims fell 12,000 to 502,000 giving the dollar a boost and the crude a trouncing even before the bearish Energy Information Agency weekly inventory report. Oh sure the overall jobless rate is still lousy but that puts the four week average at the best level in over a year and that gave some life the beleaguered dollar. Now with Obama on his way to China, the dollar could be poised for more short covering. We may see that happen when the Census Bureau releases the September balance, or should I say the imbalance, of trade data. The U.S. trade deficit is expected to widen to $32 billion from $30.7 billion in August. Most of that is with China.

There is growing global pressure on China to allow the Yuan to appreciate. The goal is to take some of the heat off the dollar and at the same time global commodity prices. All commodity prices have been as dependant on the dollar as the US is dependent on China buying our debt and as the Chinese are dependent on us buying their stuff. The Wall Street Journal says that the Federal Reserve's trade weighted dollar index, which measures the greenback against a broad basket of currencies including the Chinese yuan, has fallen nearly 22% since 2002. Some argue that the 63% increase in U.S. exports during that time is no coincidence.....Read the entire article.

Get 4 FREE Trading Videos from INO TV!

Weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage Report

Working gas in storage was 3,813 Bcf as of Friday, November 6, 2009, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 25 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 350 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 409 Bcf above the 5 year average of 3,404 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 118 Bcf above the 5 year average following net injections of 8 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 223 Bcf above the 5 year average of 976 Bcf after a net injection of 10 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 67 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 7 Bcf. At 3,813 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range.

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2004 through 2008.
Source: Form EIA-912, "Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Report." The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year ago weekly periods.

Get 10 Trading Lessons FREE

Two Major Forces Collide in the Index Markets

On Wednesday, 11/11/09, the Dow Jones Industrial Index rallied to a 50% retracement level based on MarketClub’s Fibonacci measuring tool. The action today indicates that this level is very important and that it could be an important top for this market.

In our latest video we cover both the Dow and the S&P 500 and tell you what we think is going to happen to both of these markets in the near and intermediate term.

Just Click Here to watch our latest video and as always our videos are free to watch and there’s no need to register. Please take a moment to let us know what you think of the video by leaving a comment.

Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO, The Crude Oil Trader

Phil Flynn: Strange Bed Fellows

What does OPEC and the International Energy Agency have in common? Well usually not too much but there are exceptions.

OPEC represents the interests of oil producers whose club pumps about 40 percent of the of the global oil supply and the International Energy Agency (IEA) which acts as energy policy advisor to 28 oil consuming nations rarely see eye to eye to eye on many of the big energy issues of the day. Yet it seems in this era of economic stress even this odd couple may share some of the same ideas on energy without driving the other one crazy.

Well for one thing they both generally believe that the demand for oil is getting better. The IEA was the latest agency to upwardly revise its forecast for global oil demand predicting a consumption average rate of 86.2 million barrels a day up 140,000 barrels from their October report. That was the day after OPEC predicted a demand increase to 85.07 million barrels a day 50,000 barrels a day higher than their last report. Usually the IEA likes to estimate demand on the high side and OPEC on the low side yet a demand increase. Yet it is not just increasing demand that they agree on. They agree that the increasing price of crude may be a threat to the economic recovery.....Read the entire article.

Get 10 Trading Lessons FREE

Weekly EIA Crude Oil Petroleum Status Report Highlights

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 13.8 million barrels per day during the week ending November 6, 145 thousand barrels per day below the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 79.9 percent of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 8.9 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.1 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 8.7 million barrels per day last week, up 530 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 8.6 million barrels per day, 1.5 million barrels per day below the same
four week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 732 thousand barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 177 thousand barrels per day last week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 337.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are slightly above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by
2.5 million barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.3 million barrels, and are above the upper boundary of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 1.2 million barrels last week and are in the upper half of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 1.0 million barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

Get 10 Trading Lessons FREE

Total products supplied over the last four week period has averaged 18.7 million barrels per day, down by 4.7 percent compared to the similar period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 8.9 million barrels per day, down by 1.0 percent from the same period last year. Distillate fuel demand has
averaged 3.6 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, down by 13.8 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is 4.0 percent lower over the last four weeks compared to the same four week period last year. The average world crude oil price on November 6, 2009 was $76.34 per barrel, $0.15 less than last week’s price but $17.68 above a year ago. WTI was $77.40 per barrel on November 6, 2009, $0.36 more than last week’s price and $16.34 above a year ago.

The spot price for conventional gasoline in the New York Harbor was 192.15 cents per gallon, 5.70 cents less than last week’s price but 51.75 cents above last year. The spot price for No. 2 heating oil in the New York Harbor was 195.44 cents per gallon, 1.03 cents less than last week’s price and 0.91 cent under a year ago. The national average retail regular gasoline price decreased to 266.6 cents per gallon on November 9, 2009, 2.8 cents per gallon less than last week but 44.2 cents above a year ago. The national
average retail diesel fuel price decreased to 280.1 cents per gallon, 0.7 cent per gallon less than last week and 14.3 cents below a year ago.....Read the entire report.

Crude Oil Falls on Larger Than Expected U.S. Supply Increase

Crude oil fell after a government report showed a larger than forecast gain in stockpiles as sinking demand pushed refinery operating rates to the lowest level in more than a year. Supplies of crude oil rose 1.76 million barrels to 337.7 million last week, the Energy Department report showed. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast a 1 million barrel gain. Refinery operations declined to the lowest level since September 2008, when units were shut in the aftermath of hurricanes Gustav and Ike.

“The big problem is that demand is week, and refiners are starting to feel pain,” said Carl Larry, president of Oil Outlooks & Opinions LLC, a Houston based energy adviser. “It’s good for consumers that crude oil stocks increased, but with demand so low, refiners aren’t going to need it to make gasoline and other fuels.” Crude oil for December delivery fell $2.14, or 2.7 percent, to $77.14 a barrel at 11:59 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up 73 percent this year. Futures traded at $77.32 before the report’s release at 11 a.m. in Washington.....Read the entire article.

USO and UNG Mid Week Trading Tips

Crude oil has a nice bull flag and we are waiting for a breakout and setup while natural gas continues to see selling pressure.

USO Fund Trading – Daily Fund Chart
The USO oil fund broke out a few weeks ago from the large pennant pattern. The price has been flagging for about 3 weeks now. It looks like we are getting close to a low risk setup so I am keeping a close eye on this fund.


UNG Fund Trading – Daily Fund Chart
Natural gas continues to under perform the rest of our commodities. This fund is starting to look like another good by point but we need a few things to fall into place before that happens. Let’s not jump the gun because this fund is still in a bear market. Waiting for a setup.


Waiting for these exchange traded funds to generate low risk setups and watching our current positions mature is the boring part of trading. It’s these slow times when traders get bored and start taking more risk by entering positions that do not have clear entry and exit points. Not having clear entry and exit points will lead to traders holding on to losing trades and not taking profits on winning trades. Be sure you enter positions which you know where you should get out if the trade goes against you and where to take some money off the table if it rallies higher.

ETF Trading Conclusion:
We continue to wait for trading opportunities to unfold. We focus on taking advantage of low risk setups and avoiding times the market when things are choppy and unclear.

Get these trading reports sent directly to your inbox, Just click here to sign up at The Gold and Oil Guy .Com

Crude Oil in New York Fluctuates as Chinese Imports Gain, Dollar Climbs

Crude oil rose as Chinese crude imports neared a record and the dollar weakened to a 15 month low, buoying demand for commodities. China’s net oil imports were almost 19 million tons, or 4.5 million barrels a day, the second highest level ever, according to data from the Beijing based customs office. Oil rose and gold surged to a record as the dollar’s slide bolstered purchases of raw materials by investors seeking alternative investments. “The Chinese numbers are obviously very supportive,” said John Kilduff, partner at Round Earth Capital, a hedge fund that focuses on food and energy commodity investments, in New York.

“The consistently high import numbers fly in the face of those who say there is nothing fundamental about the rise in oil prices.” Oil for December delivery rose 82 cents, or 1 percent, to $79.87 a barrel at 10:01 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have climbed 79 percent this year. Chinese imports increased as industrial production soared 16 percent from a year earlier, spurring fuel use. Last month’s net imports were the highest since July’s record 19.2 million barrels. China is the second largest oil consumer after the U.S.....Read the entire article.