OPEC: No Need to Increase Supply

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said Wednesday it wouldn't need to boost its supply after cutting demand forecasts for its crude and boosting supply estimates for rival producers, despite the impact of a U.S. oil spill. In its monthly report for June, the organization also warned of likely downgrades in global consumption estimates in the second half, and slightly cut its annual forecast amid a slowing recovery.

OPEC cut 2010 demand estimates for its crude by 70,000 barrels a day and now sees a year on year decline of 175,000 barrels a day. "This would leave no room for additional crude oil supplies in the market," it said. OPEC's next meeting is not due until October. The organization, which members currently produce over a third of the oil consumed worldwide, is loosing market share to non members, which include Russia and the U.S.

It boosted non OPEC oil supply estimates by 110,000 barrels a day for 2010, making it an increase of 640,000 barrels a day. The largest upgrade came from U.S. supply, despite OPEC warning production there could be affected by an extension of a Gulf of Mexico drilling moratorium and a hurricane season expected to be worse than usual. The moratorium, which follows an explosion and a huge spill at BP's Macondo well on Apr. 20, is affecting 35 wells "which will have a heavy influence on production in 2010 and 2011," OPEC said.

The group also warned "an expected moderation in the pace of the economic recovery is likely to impact demand growth forecasts for the second half." It cut its global oil demand forecast for the year by about 10,000 barrels a day to 85.37 million barrels a day, but kept consumption growth unchanged at about 950,000 barrels. Despite the challenges they face in finding buyers for every new barrel they produce, OPEC members have been steadily increasing their output in the past twelve months.

In May, quota bound members increased production by 19,600 barrels a day to 26.83 million barrels a day, despite agreeing to 4.2 million barrels a day in cuts late 2008. Iraq, the only OPEC not subject to quotas, experienced the largest rise in the month, with 121,300 barrels a day.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Rises for Second Day After Industry Shows Drop in U.S. Oil Inventories

Crude oil advanced for a second day as an industry report showed a drop in U.S. crude inventories and confidence among U.S. small businesses rose, bolstering optimism that fuel demand will increase in the world’s largest user. Oil gained as much as 1 percent after the American Petroleum Institute said crude inventories dropped for a second week.

An Energy Information Administration report today will probably show stockpiles fell 900,000 barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 15 analysts. The National Federation of Independent Business’s optimism index increased last month to the highest level since September 2008.

“There is some optimism with the macro data, especially in the U.S.,” Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne, said by telephone. “The last few weeks there’s been decent draws in the oil inventories in the U.S., and so the EIA data will be important to see if that trend continues.”

Crude oil for July delivery gained as much as 71 cents to $72.70 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $72.52 at 2:11 p.m. Singapore time. The contract rose 55 cents, or 0.8 percent, to settle yesterday at $71.99. Oil has declined 8.9 percent this year.

Risks to the global economic outlook have “risen significantly” and policy makers have limited room to provide support to growth, International Monetary Fund Deputy Managing Director Naoyuki Shinohara said in a speech in Singapore today.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Dollar Commentary For Tuesday Evening

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 75.72 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, last July's low crossing at 66.11 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 73.39. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 75.72. First support is Monday's low crossing at 69.51. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 67.15.

Natural gas closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends this week's rally, the 50% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.151 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.389 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.995. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.151. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.479. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.389.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 88.80. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 89.71. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 87.28. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.70.

Gold closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday hinting that a double top with May's high could have been posted today. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extends this week's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 1198.10 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1254.50. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1216.60. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 1198.10.

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Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Tuesday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil & gold are likely headed tomorrow.




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Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Dollar Commentary For Monday Evening

Crude oil closed down $0.54 at $70.97 a barrel today. Prices closed near mid range today. Bears have regained the near term technical advantage and have resumed a five week old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next near term upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at $76.00 a barrel.

Natural gas closed up 14.4 cents at $4.941 today. Prices closed near the session high today and closed at a fresh three month high close. Prices have seen a bullish upside "breakout" from a recent trading range at lower price levels. Recent price action suggests a major market low is in place in natural gas. Bulls have gained fresh upside near term technical momentum recently.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 23 points at 89.02 today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh 14 month high. European Union sovereign debt troubles will continue to support the dollar index. The bulls still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand.

Gold futures closed up $23.10 at $1,240.80 today. Prices closed near the session high today on short covering and fresh speculative buying. There was a rumor that one big hedge fund was a major buying of gold with the Euro currency today. More safe haven buying interest in gold was also seen today. The gold bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage and regained upside momentum today. There are still no early technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand.


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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Thursday

Crude oil's recovery was limited at 84.64 and subsequent break of 82.85 minor support argues that such recovery is completed. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 87.09 at 80.37. Note that sustained trading below 80.37 fibo support will confirm that rise from 69.50 has completed after hitting 61.8% projection of 69.50 to 83.16 from 78.56 at 87.00. In such case, deeper fall should be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 76.22 and below. On the upside, above 84.64 will turn focus back to 87.09 high.

In the bigger picture, note again that medium term rise from 33.20 is viewed as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27. Our preferred view is that rise from 33.2 is in form of a three wave structure (73.23, 65.05, ?) and should be near to completion. Strong resistance is expected around 90 psychological level, which coincide with 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 and 61.8% projection of 33.2 to 73.23 from 65.05 at 89.79, and bring reversal. Hence, even though another rally cannot be ruled out, upside potential should be limited. On the downside, break of 69.50 support will break the series of higher low pattern from 33.2 and will be an important indication that the trend has reversed. In such case, we'll turn bearish on crude oil and expect the then down trend to target a new low below 33.2.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Friday Evening

Crude oil closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline below the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.34. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that a short term top is in or is near. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 79.41 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 85.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.34. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.47. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 80.89. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 78.86.

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Natural gas closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.502 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.424 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.209. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.424. First support is today's low crossing at 3.923. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.502.

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The U.S. Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally but remains above February's high crossing at 81.70. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's rally, the May 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 83.34 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.86 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 82.52. Second resistance is the May 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 83.34. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.03. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.86.

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Could There Be....More Upside in Chevron?

Stephanie Link, director of research for Action Alerts Plus Portfolio, reveals why they still love Chevron and are buying the stock despite its recent 40% move.



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Chevron Squeezes New Oil from One of World's Oldest Fields

Chevron Corp. is employing new technologies in hopes of extending the life of one of the world's oldest and most prolific oil fields, a process that is being replicated elsewhere to help the energy industry squeeze more out of aging oil basins. The Kern River field has produced more than 2 billion barrels of oil in its 110 year history, but Chevron estimates it still holds another 1.5 billion barrels.

Chevron is using the Kern River field as a real world laboratory, testing enhanced recovery techniques and bringing in engineers from around the world to learn them. "The thing about being in this old oil field," said Chevron engineer Joe Fram, "you can try stuff." To get as many of those barrels as possible out of the ground and do so cheaply enough to turn a profit Chevron is deploying high tech temperature sensors to monitor its production, using three dimensional computer models to plan its wells and filtering waste water from the fields through walnut shells so it can be re-used .....read the entire article.

Conoco Says Australia Could Be Biggest LNG Exporter

Australia could become the world's biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, by 2020, the head of ConocoPhillips' (COP) Australian unit said Thursday. The comments came as Chevron Corp. (CVX) said it has signed three binding sales agreements to supply nearly three million tons a year of LNG from the proposed Gorgon project in Western Australia state to Japanese and Korean energy companies. ConocoPhillips Australia President Joseph Marushack said that a final investment decision is still expected to be made for its massive Gladstone LNG joint venture in Queensland state with Origin Energy Ltd. (ORG.AU) by the end of 2010, with first gas to be shipped in 2014.....Read the entire article

BP: Best in Class

Stephanie Link, director of research for Action Alerts Plus Portfolio, argues that BP's recent oil discovery provides much needed growth potential.



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Chevron Profits Tumble 71 pct Because of Cheap Oil

Chevron Corp. says its second quarter profit fell 71 percent as demand for crude oil and gasoline plunged. Chevron, the second largest U.S. oil company, said Friday its net income amounted to $1.75 billion, or 87 cents per share, for the three-month period that ended June 30. That compared with $5.98 billion, or $2.90 per share, in the same period last year. The company said its net income suffered from a weak U.S. dollar, amounting to $453 million in reduced earnings. That compares with an income benefit of $126 million in the same period last year. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected earnings of 95 cents per share. Those estimates typically exclude one time items.....Your keyword

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How Can You Tap Into Oil's Potential?

Dan Dicker of The Street .Com breaks down crude's recent run up and reveals two stocks that could pop, if oil pushes even higher.

Natural Gas Closes Lower Posting an Inside Day

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of this spring's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 65.67 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 73.23
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 69.46
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 65.67

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Natural gas posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends Thursday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 4.284 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 3.395 is the next downside target.

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 4.068
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.29

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.56
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.50

“How Low Can The Dollar Go”

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Friday due to short covering as it consolidated some of this week's losses. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 78.18 is the next downside target.

If June renews the rally off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 83.33 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 81.53
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.33

First support is Thursday's low crossing at 79.20
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 78.18

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Crude Oil High Range Close Sets Up Possible Higher Open Thursday

Crude Oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the Tuesday's rally above the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.34 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 71.79
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 68.12
Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.34

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Natural Gas closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it extends this week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If July renews last month's decline, April's low crossing at 3.395 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.945 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.88
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.95

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.55
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.50

Trading Video: “How Low Can The Dollar Go”

The U.S. Dollar closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near term.

If June extends the rebound off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 83.33 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 81.53
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.33

First support is today's low crossing at 79.48
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 78.18

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Dollar Closes Below 10 Day Moving Average, Sets Up Higher Open For Crude Oil Wednesday

Crude oil closed higher on Tuesday and above the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 63.77 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 70.32.
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 67.34.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 63.77.

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The U.S. Dollar closed sharply lower on Tuesday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of the rally off last week's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday.

Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near term. However, today's close below the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.85 tempers the near term friendly outlook in the market.

If June extends the rebound off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 83.33 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 81.53
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.33

First support is today's low crossing at 79.70
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 78.18

Video: “How Low Can The Dollar Go”

Natural gas closed slightly higher on Tuesday due to light short covering as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If July renews last month's decline, April's low crossing at 3.395 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.988 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.871
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.988

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.550
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.500

Lower Prices Still Possible For Natural Gas

Natural gas was higher in overnight trading Monday night as it consolidated below the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.875. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If July extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.500 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.990 would signal that a short term low has been posted.

Closes above last Tuesday's high are needed to renew the rally off the late May low and would open the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at 4.690.

Tuesday's pivot point for natural gas is 3.76

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.875
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.990

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.550
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.500

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Some Things Never Change, Another Summer Of Rising Gas Prices

Just like every other summer, gas prices will likely be rising. Gas prices will likely be a thorn in the side of consumers who are starting to feel more optimistic about the U.S. economic recovery.

Chevron 4th Quarter Conference Call

Chevron Corp. (ticker CVX) reports fourth-quarter 2008 results Friday January 30, in a conference call at 11:00 AM ET hosted by Dave O'Reilly, Chevron's chairman and chief executive officer, Pat Yarrington, Chevron's vice president and chief financial officer, and James Aleveras, Chevron's general manager of investor relations. To take in the conference call by phone just dial 703-639-1116 or 866-219-5256. The conference ID is 1320201. Or on the internet you can catch the live webcast of the call on the company's website. Just Click Here!