Showing posts with label downside. Show all posts
Showing posts with label downside. Show all posts

Thursday, September 12, 2013

COT Market Summary for Thursday Sept. 12th - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, SP 500, Gold, Coffee

October crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Multiple closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 107.54 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October renews this summer's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 114.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 112.24. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 114.83. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 107.54. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 103.50.

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October Henry natural gas closed higher on Thursday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.556 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near term. If October renews the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.680. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.556. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.154.

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The December S&P 500 closed lower due to light profit taking on Thursday. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 1684.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1646.44 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1683.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1684.40. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1646.44. Second support is August's low crossing at 1621.00.

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October gold closed sharply lower on Thursday extending the decline off August's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If October extends this week's decline, August's low crossing at 1272.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1382.20 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1382.20. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1432.90. First support is today's low crossing at 1322.40. Second resistance is August's low crossing at 1272.10.

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December coffee closed slightly lower on Thursday but remains above the 20 day moving average. The high range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends Wednesday's rally, August's high crossing at 12.70 is the next upside target. If December renews this summer's decline, monthly support crossing at 10.21 is the next downside target.

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Saturday, August 3, 2013

Crude oil post a downside reversal on Friday.....Is this all the bulls have for summer 2013

September crude oil posted a downside reversal on Friday after failing to take out July's high crossing at 108.93. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above July's high crossing at 108.93 would renew this summer's rally while opening the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 110.55 later this summer. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 102.67 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 110.55. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 102.67. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27.

The September S&P 500 closed slightly lower on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the index trading into uncharted territory. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1677.36 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1703.40. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1677.36. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1670.50.

October gold closed lower on Friday. A short covering rally tempered early session losses and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1297.40 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 1395.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 1348.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1395.20. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1297.40. Second support is July's low crossing at 1208.50.

September Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off May's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the June 2012 low crossing at 3.294 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.616 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.616. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 3.833. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.341. Second support is the June 2012 low crossing at 3.294.

And of course....our new favorite trade. September coffee closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off July's high. The high range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 122.55 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

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Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Crude oil closes below the 20 day moving average, does this confirm a near term top is in?

September crude oil closed lower on Tuesday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 104.82 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 109.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 109.45. First support is today's low crossing at 102.67. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27.

The September S&P 500 closed unchanged on Tuesday. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1665.30 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the next trading into uncharted territory. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 1695.50. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1666.00. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1665.30.

October gold closed lower on Tuesday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1286.50 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October extend the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 1395.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1348.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1395.20. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1286.50. Second support is July's low crossing at 1208.50.

September Henry natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it extends this decline off May's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 3.350 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.656 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.656. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 3.833. First support is today's low crossing at 3.418. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.350.

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Sunday, May 19, 2013

Update.....Is it finally time to go long coffee? Mike Seery weighs in!

Late last week one of our trading partners Jim Robinson gave us his take on the sideways trading in coffee right now. Mike Seery jumps in to give us his take with a recap on how coffee traded last week and where he sees it headed. Is it time to go long coffee?

Coffee futures finished down 295 points and had a disappointing week finishing lower by about 800 points still in a real seesaw chart pattern finishing around 137.00 a pound creating a false breakout to the upside last week with a false breakout to the downside a couple weeks ago so were still unable to breakout of this 8 week consolidation.

We are entering the volatile season in coffee as frost season is right around the corner which could propel prices higher if there are any weather problems but this trend is sideways and I’m still recommending traders to avoid this market until a trend develops and I do believe that the three year downturn in prices is nearing an end in my opinion.

One strategy if you’re looking to get involved in coffee and avoid some of the volatility which could be coming is to look at bull call option spreads and that is an option play which limits your risk to what the premium cost and I would go out to the month of September which gives you around 3 months to hold that position before expiration.

Trend: Sideways – Chart structure - excellent


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Friday, July 13, 2012

What the GLD ETF Chart tells us about GOLD

Gold had remained in a rough 1550-1640 range for several weeks now. Tonight, we look at the GLD ETF, which represents the Gold spot price movements.  Over the past 5 months we can see in the chart below  the clear downtrend lines.

Recently, in the past 6 weeks we have seen a series of 3 higher lows including today where a lower gap filled in and then Gold reversed upwards.

What Gold needs to do, in terms of this GLD ETF is clear the 158 hurdle on a closing basis to set up a stage for a new advance. I would expect in the intervening months to October for Gold to continuing meandering and correcting to as low as 1445-1455, my longstanding Gold worst case low targets I’ve had since last September.

Near term key levels are 150 on the downside and 158 on the upside. If we close below 150 on GLD ETF then we should be looking for my 1445-1455 areas to be hit this summer before a low. If we clear 158 on the GLD ETF, then the triple bottom at 1520 is likely confirmed and we can start tracking some upside for Gold.



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Monday, July 2, 2012

Obviously, the Crude Oil Markets Overreacted Last Week

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CME: August crude oil prices traded lower during the overnight and early morning hours, as they corrected Friday's more than 9.0% gain. Some traders suggested that sluggish China and European manufacturing data served to tamp down global oil demand prospects and pressured crude oil prices lower. Meanwhile, there were a couple of positives in the crude oil market that might have limited early morning losses, including a European embargo on Iranian oil that went into effect over the weekend and the ongoing oil workers strike in Norway. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of June 26th showed non-commercial traders were net long 178,866 contracts, a decrease of 13,193. Non-commercial and nonreportable traders combined held a net long position of 192,382 contracts, for a decrease of 5,729 in their net long position.

COT: August crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidated some of last Friday's rally but remains above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.49. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 87.32 is the next upside target. If August renews this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.32. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 92.52. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 77.28. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28.

“The economic data doesn’t seem to suggest oil demand is going to be very explosive, and the demand expectation is softening,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group in Chicago. “The market realized that maybe people overreacted last week and we are pulling back to a more normal area.”

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Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Commodities Get a Boost From New "It Isn't That Bad" Data in the U.S.

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this spring's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.92 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If August extends this spring's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 73.28 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.92. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.32. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 77.56. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 73.28.

Natural gas closed higher on Wednesday as it extended this month's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends this month's rally, February's high crossing at 3.104 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.446 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.946. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3.104. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 2.610. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.466.

Gold closed higher on Wednesday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends last week's decline, May's low crossing at 1529.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1602.30 are needed to temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1602.30. Second resistance is reaction high crossing at 1642.40. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1556.40. Second support is May's low crossing at 1529.30.

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Crude Oil Traders Whisper....U.S. Inventories on the Rise

CME: August crude oil prices trended lower throughout the overnight and initial morning hours. Traders noted that some of the late day advance yesterday was tempered by private industry data that suggesting that U.S. crude stocks might have unexpectedly increased last week. The market also appears to be under a degree of pressure in front of this week's EU summit, which is largely expected to show little progress in resolving the European debt crisis. The crude oil market garnered support in yesterday's session from mounting concerns over a tightening North Sea supply situation.

COT: August crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below the 62% retracement level of the 2009-2012 rally crossing at 80.33. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. If August extends this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.86 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.86. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.32. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 77.56. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28.

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Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Is this technical support for oil or a lift on tensions in Syria?

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CME: August crude oil prices took a slightly higher track during the initial morning hours, helped by a modest lift in outside market sentiment and expectations that week's EIA inventory report will show a draw. August Brent crude oil broke out to a new three day high during the initial morning hours, supported by a modest level of short covering, as well as expectations that US crude oil inventories drew down last week. The crude oil market also appears to be getting a modest lift from rising tensions in Syria. Meanwhile, the supply situation looks more than ample given soft economic data that continues to weigh on demand prospects and as Saudi Arabia continues their active production pace.

COT: August crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. If August extends this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.31 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.31. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.32. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 77.56. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28.

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Monday, June 18, 2012

SP 500 and Crude Oil Monday Morning Madness

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Crude oil prices are trading lower in early trading today. Trading has turned choppy but bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. In July crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $84.00 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $83.00 and then at $82.50.

In S&P 500 futures Prices hit a fresh four week high overnight. The shorter term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18- day) are bullish early today. The 4 day moving average is above the 9 day and 18 day. The 9 day is above the 18 day moving average. Short term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.

Today, shorter term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,347.00 and then at 1,360.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Friday's low of 1,324.40 and then at 1,305.80. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

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Thursday, June 14, 2012

Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Market Commentary For Thursday Evening June 14th

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Crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates above the 87% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 81.36. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July renews this spring's decline, last October's low crossing at 77.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.21 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.03. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.21. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 81.07. Second support is last October's low crossing at 77.05.

Natural gas closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.487 signaling that a double bottom with April's low appears to have been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish with today's rally hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.487 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 2.136 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.522. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 2.838. First support is today's low crossing at 2.168. Second support is April's low crossing at 2.136.

Gold closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's rally off last Friday's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August renews the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 1674.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1591.10 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1632.00. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1674.30. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1591.10. Second support is May's low crossing at 1529.30.

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Friday, June 8, 2012

Bullish Signals Creeping in to the Crude Oil Market

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Crude oil closed lower on Friday but remains above the 87% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 81.36. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Sunday's evening session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 89.54 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July renews this spring's decline, last October's low crossing at 77.05 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 86.17. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 89.54. First support is Monday's low crossing at 81.21. Second support is last October's low crossing at 77.05.

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Natural gas closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.547 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If July renews the aforementioned decline, the reaction low crossing at 2.166 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.547. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.838. First support is today's low crossing at 2.231. Second support is April's low crossing at 2.096.


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Gold closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Sunday's evening session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. If August renews the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2010-2011 rally crossing at 1461.30 is the next downside target. If August extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 1674.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1632.00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 1674.30. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1580.90. Second support is May's low crossing at 1529.30.

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Monday, June 4, 2012

Crude Oil Bulls Get Some Help From 87% Retracement Level

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Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it bounced off the 87% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 81.36. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July extends this month's decline, last October's low crossing at 77.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 92.14 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 88.86. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 92.14. First support is today's low crossing at 81.21. Second support is last October's low crossing at 77.05.

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Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 2.166 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.576 would confirm that a short term low has been posted First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.576. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.838. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 2.313. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.166.

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Gold closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of last Friday's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extends last Friday's rally, April's high crossing at 1674.30 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2010-2011 rally crossing at 1461.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1632.00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 1674.30. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1529.30. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2010-2011 rally crossing at 1461.30.

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Thursday, May 31, 2012

King Dollar Dominates Crude Oil and Gold....Again!

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Crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off March's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 85.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 93.86 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 90.60. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 93.86. First support is today's low crossing at 85.86. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 85.69.

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Natural gas closed slightly higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 2.338 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off April's low, February's high crossing at 3.104 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.838. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3.104. First support is today's low crossing at 2.377. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.338.

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Gold closed lower on Thursday as it extended the trading range of the past two weeks. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1601.40 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2010-2011 rally crossing at 1461.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1583.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1601.40. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1529.30. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2010-2011 rally crossing at 1461.30.

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Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Crude Oil Closes Below 62% Retracement Causing Severe Chart Damage

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Crude oil closed lower on Wednesday and below the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 90.26 as it renewed the decline off March's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 85.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 94.79 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 91.22. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 94.79. First support is today's low crossing at 87.39. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 85.69.

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Natural gas closed lower on Wednesday as it extended yesterday's breakout below the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.576. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 2.338 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off April's low, February's high crossing at 3.104 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.838. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3.104. First support is today's low crossing at 2.393. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.338.

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Gold closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1591.30 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1487.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1586.30. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1599.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1526.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1487.50.

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Let's Compare Notes....ONG Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

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If you are a regular reader here you know we like to include trade ideas and opinions from many different sources. Here's is the "Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook" from the staff at ONG. They really take the emotion out of trading and stick to the facts. And the fact is, the bulls are in trouble here.

Crude oil's decline resumed by taking out 89.28 temporary low and reaches as low as 87.75 so far. 61.8% retracement of 74.95 to 100.55 at 88.55 is broken firmly, suggesting downside momentum is building up again. Deeper decline should be seen to 80 psychological level and then 74.95 support. On the upside, break of 92.21 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 114.84 are developing into a three wave consolidation pattern. And, the third leg should have already started at 110.55. Deeper fall should eventually be seen to 74.95 low and possibly below. Though, we'd likely see strong support from 64.23 cluster level, 61.8% retracement of 33.20 to 114.83 at 64.38 and bring another medium term rise. Hence we'll look for reversal signal below 74.95.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts


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Friday, May 25, 2012

Low Volume Crude Oil Trading Day Ends with a Fractional Gain

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Crude oil [July contract now] closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it bounces off the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 90.26. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 85.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 96.47 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 92.35. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 96.47. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 89.28. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 85.69.

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Natural gas closed lower on Friday and below the 10 day moving average crossing at 2.613 signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.492 would signal that a short term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off last week's low, February's high crossing at 3.040 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 2.759. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3.040. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.492. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.387.

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Gold closed higher due to short covering on Friday. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1487.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1597.00 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1597.00. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1672.30. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 1526.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1487.50.

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Thursday, May 24, 2012

Has Crude Oil Found Support at 90.26? How Indicators Say......

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Crude Oil

Crude oil [July contract now] closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it bounces off the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 90.26. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 85.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 97.19 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 92.91. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 97.19. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 89.28. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 85.69.

Monthly Long Term Trend = Bearish
Weekly Intermediate Term Trend = Bearish
Daily Short Term Trend = Bearish

Natural Gas

Natural gas [still June contract] closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's trading range. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends the rally off last week's low, February's high crossing at 3.040 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.474 would signal that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 2.759. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3.040. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 2.608. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.474.

With a Trade Triangle Analysis Score of -90, this market is in a strong trend to the downside. Long term, intermediate term, and short term traders are in short positions in crude oil with appropriate money management stops.

GOLD

Gold closed higher [June contract] due to short covering on Thursday. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1487.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1601.70 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1601.70. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1672.30. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 1526.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1487.50.

With a Trade Triangle Analysis Score of -100, the gold market is in a strong downtrend. Long term, intermediate term, and short term traders are in short positions in gold with appropriate money management stops.

Monthly Long Term Trend = Bearish
Weekly Intermediate Term Trend = Bearish
Daily Short Term Trend = Bearish

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Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Crude Oil Charts Collapse Including Trades Below the $90 Level

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Crude oil closed lower on Wednesday and below the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 90.26. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 85.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 97.93 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 93.63. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 97.93. First support is today's low crossing at 89.28. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 85.69.

Natural gas closed higher on Wednesday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends the rally off last week's low, February's high crossing at 3.040 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.448 would signal that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 2.759. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3.040. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 2.593. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.448.

Gold closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1607.60 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1487.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1607.60. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1672.30. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 1526.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1487.50.

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Monday, May 21, 2012

Crude Oil Bulls Start the Week Higher, Bears Still Have the Advantage

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Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 89.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 98.88 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 94.53. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 98.88. First support is today's low crossing at 90.84. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 89.90.

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Natural gas closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends the rally off last week's low, February's high crossing at 3.040 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.388 would signal that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 2.759. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3.040. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 2.535. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.388.

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Gold closed slightly lower on Monday but remains above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1579.00. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1615.10 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1487.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1615.10. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1672.30. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 1526.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1487.50.

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