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Crude oil's sharp retreat from 80.61 argues that rebound from 69.50 is not ready to resume yet and turned intraday bias neutral again. More sideway trading might be seen. But after all, outlook remains bullish as long as 77.05 support holds. Break of 80.61 will indicate rally resumption and should target 83.95 high next. However, note that below 77.05 support will argue that rebound from 69.50 is completed with a double top. In such case, focus will be shifted back to 69.50 support instead.
In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The strong rebound from 72.43 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Monday. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top is in or is near.
Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.32 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 81.63 is the next upside target.
First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 81.15 Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 81.63
First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 77.44 Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.32
Natural gas closed lower on Monday and below the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.819. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If May extends this winter's decline, December's low crossing at 4.656 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.236 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.036 Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.236
First support is today's low crossing at 4.740 Second support is December's low crossing at 4.656
The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Monday but remains below the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are neutral to bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near.
Closes below the reaction low crossing at 79.61 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March renews this winter's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 82.92 is the next upside target.
First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 81.43 Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 82.92
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.34 Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 80.15
Strong data out of Europe and weak data out of China should give us a mixed picture. In the Euro Zone manufacturing hit 30-month high in February. The unemployment rate in Europe came in at a better than expected 9.9%. This seemed to over shadow the fact that the HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to 55.8 in February from 57.4 in January. While still showing expansion it also shows that the world’s second largest oil consumer may be slowing its demand for oil. We see that demand is still weak with ample global supply.
In fact just last week the Energy Information Agency estimated that supply in OECD countries was 2.69 billion barrels at the end of 2009 which is the equivalent of about 58 days of forward demand cover and a whopping 90 million barrels above the 5-year average. With supplies so strong it is hard to imagine that even an increase in demand will really start getting us going.
The EIA says that they expect the world oil market will gradually tighten in 2010 and 2011, as the global economic recovery continues and world oil demand begins to grow again. Of course for that to happen they are counting on OPEC to hold back supply. And as the EIA said OPEC cut its crude oil production by 2.2 million barrels per day in 2009 and is one reason why WTI crude oil prices stabilized between $70 to $80 per barrel since the middle of last year. This range is consistent with the "fair price" range for crude oil proposed by King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia at the beginning of 2009.
Oil prices hovered in this range despite sustained high levels of oil inventories and rising spare production capacity, which rose, in part, because of cuts in OPEC production. OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity currently stands at about 5 million bbl/d and could grow to 6 million barrel per day. However the EIA warns that most of this surplus capacity is concentrated in Saudi Arabia, which is not likely to use it as long as the oil market is stable and its price target range is being met. Yet the Saudis might get tired of carry the burden as the rest of the cartel cheats away. Bloomberg News reported that OPEC increased crude oil production to a 14 month high in February, led by a Saudi Arabian gain.
According to the Bloomberg Survey OPEC output rose 125,000 barrels a day, or 0.4 percent, to an average 29.17 million barrels a day, the highest level since December 2008. January production total was revised 45,000 barrels a day higher. Bloomberg says that OPEC cut its production quotas by 4.2 million barrels to 24.845 million barrels a day beginning in January 2009 as fuel demand tumbled during the worst global recession since World War II. The Saudis boosted output by 100,000 barrels to 8.25 million barrels a day, the highest level since December 2008. It was the largest increase of any member. The kingdom exceeded its quota by 199,000 barrels a day.
Despite oil marching in like a Lion, we fully expect the month to go out like a lamb. With OPEC cheating and demand still weak we feel the bulls are on borrowed time!
You can contact Phil directly at pflynn@pfgbest.com You can also see him each day on the Fox Business Network!
Crude oil rose to a six week high after U.S. consumers increased spending for a fourth consecutive month in January, signaling that fuel demand may climb.
Oil climbed as much as 1.2 percent after the Commerce Department reported a 0.5 percent increase in purchases. Prices advanced on Feb. 26 following a report by the department that U.S. gross domestic product increased by the most in six years, renewing optimism about the strength of the economic recovery.
“If consumer spending is up, we can expect to see higher demand going forward,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in Chicago.
Crude oil for April delivery rose 46 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $80.12 a barrel at 9:48 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $80.62, the highest level since Jan. 13. Oil is up 79 percent from a year earlier.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 6.95, or 0.6 percent, to 1,111.44. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 52.76, or 0.5 percent, to 10,378.02.
“The consumer spending numbers were positive,” said Tom Bentz, a broker at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. “We finished last week strongly and the momentum is still on the bullish side.”
European manufacturing accelerated at the fastest pace in more than two years in February as reviving global demand boosted export orders. A manufacturing index for the 16 member euro region increased to 54.2 from 52.4 in January, London based Markit Economics said today. That’s above an initial estimate of 54.1 published on Feb. 19 and the highest since August 2007.
“Since late last week we’ve been seeing some economic optimism creep back into the oil market,” Flynn said.
Brent crude for April settlement rose 47 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $78.06 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
To contact the reporters on this story you can email Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net
Crude oil's break of 80.51 suggests that rise from 69.50 has resumed and intraday bias is on the upside for 83.95 high next. On the downside, however, below 77.05 support will argue that rebound from 69.50 is completed, possibly with bearish divergence conditions. In such case, focus will be shifted back to 69.50 support instead.
In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The strong rebound from 72.43 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
Three weeks ago on February 5th, we saw an extremely high level of fear in the market with selling vs. buying volume at a 9:1 ratio. We note that in 2009 this extreme level of fear occurred at the bottom of each significant pullback.
Since this panic selling low in February 2010 we have seen stocks and commodities work their way higher, which we expected. Overall the broad market looks as though it’s trying to make a move higher.
Below are some ETF charts of gold, silver, oil and the indexes.
Gold lead the market higher in 2009 and also lead the market lower in December of 2009. It looks as though gold could be starting a new trend higher.
You can see the clean breakout of the down channel and then a test of the channel at support. This type of price action also forms an inverse head and shoulders pattern for those who like trading patterns. This is very bullish price action.
SLV Silver ETF – Daily Trading Chart Silver has much of the same chart features as gold, but is slightly skewed. This is not particularly surprising though, as silver virtually always behaves with less defined chart patterns due to its characteristically funky price action.
USO Oil Fund – Daily Trading Chart
As with gold and silver, oil’s trading chart has formed a pivot low also, but the trend line is much steeper than what I am looking for. I prefer a flatter trend line as price growth is more sustainable.
As you can see in on the USO chart, back in December price rallied at almost the same angle as is currently the case, and then notice what happened. Once the momentum died out the price dropped straight back down. I call steep trends like this a Parabolic Rally.
Scroll up and look at the first chart (GLD) and observe the parabolic rally going into December. It too suffered a sharp drop straight back down when momentum died out.
Stock Indexes – SP500, Dow Jones, Russell 2000
Last week the market sold down the first half of the week, then bounced back up forming a possible pivot low. The daily chart for these indexes look virtually the same as the GLD, SLV and USO charts above for the past 5 trading sessions.
But, one little thing has me concerned…. When looking at the 5 minute intraday charts (posted below) you can see at the very last minute before the market closed HUGE selling volume flooded the ETFs. The market ended up losing all of its gain for the day.
With any luck this was just end of the month hedge, mutual fund, etc. portfolio rebalancing. But I am somewhat concerned that more of this selling could step back into the market Monday or Tuesday.
Weekend Trading Conclusion:
Overall, last week started on a negative note but ended strong after forming a reversal pattern.
It looks as though stocks and commodities have formed an ABC retrace pattern and are now ready to move higher.
How much higher you ask?
Well, I believe 2010 is going to be a traders market. I envision an 8-12 month sideways consolidation (large bull flag) forming. If this materializes then buying on over sold dips, as we did on Feb 5th, and scaling out on strength at resistance levels will be our goal in the coming months.
A bunch of 4-8% trades is what I’m figuring, but with leveraged etfs we can double and triple those type of returns. Now that is something to anticipate with delighted optimism!
Crude oil turned into consolidation after edging high to 80.51 initially last week and turned and dipped to as low as 77.05. Nevertheless, with 75.69 resistance turned support intact, rise from 69.05 should still be in progress. Indeed, Friday's strong rebound indicates that consolidation from 80.51 might have completed already. Initial bias is cautiously on the upside this week. Break of 80.51 will confirm rise resumption and should target a retest on 83.95 high next. On the downside, in case of another fall, outlook will remain bullish as long as 75.69 support holds. However, break of 75.69 will argue that rebound from 69.50 has completed and will turn focus back to this low.
In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The strong rebound from 72.43 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27..... Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top is in or is near.
Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.06 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If May resumes this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 81.63 is the next upside target.
First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 81.15 Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 81.63
First support is Thursday's low crossing at 77.44 Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.06
Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidates above the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.819. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If May extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 4.656 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.257 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.110 Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.257
First support is today's low crossing at 4.803 Second support is December's low crossing at 4.656
The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Friday as it consolidates below the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near.
Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.27 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March extends this winter's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 82.92 is the next upside target.
First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 81.43 Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 82.92
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.27 Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at 80.15
The Obama administration failed to meet a deadline for submitting a court-ordered analysis of the environmental effects of offering new leases to drill in Alaskan coastal waters, the oil industry said Thursday.
A federal appeals court last year had invalidated the Interior Department's current five year plan for offering oil and gas leases, saying that the government hadn't conducted an adequate review of the environmental impact in the Beaufort, Bering and Chukchi seas off the Alaskan coast. The Interior Department's Minerals Management Service has been conducting such a review and is supposed to respond to the court.
"We are disappointed MMS has again missed a deadline to provide the court with the analysis it ordered last April," Jack Gerard, the chief executive of the American Petroleum Institute, said in a statement. "This will delay investment decisions, delay the production of much-needed oil and natural gas and delay the creation of much-needed jobs."
An Interior Department spokeswoman said that the federal government was working on an approach to drilling in the Outer Continental Shelf soon.
"The secretary expects to be making an announcement about a comprehensive approach on the OCS in the coming weeks," spokeswoman Kendra Barkoff said.
