Crude oil fell the most in more than five weeks as U.S. orders for durable goods dropped in January by the most in three years, signaling slower economic growth and lower fuel demand.
Futures declined 1.9 percent in New York as data from the Commerce Department showed bookings for goods meant to last at least three years slumped 4 percent. An Energy Department report tomorrow will show U.S. crude supplies rose to the highest level in five months last week, according to the median of analyst responses in a Bloomberg News survey.
“The durable goods numbers do not paint a picture of robust demand going forward,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “We’re going to see builds in this week’s report, which is also putting downward pressure on prices.”
Read the entire Bloomberg article
Secrets of the 52 Week High Rule
Trade ideas, analysis and low risk set ups for commodities, Bitcoin, gold, silver, coffee, the indexes, options and your retirement. We'll help you keep your emotions out of your trading.
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Crude Oil Declines the Most in Five Weeks
Labels:
Addison Armstrong,
Bloomberg,
Crude Oil,
demand,
supplies
Monday, February 27, 2012
Low Range Close in Crude Oil Gives The Bears Technical Advantage For Tuesday
Crude oil [April contract] posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off October's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If April extends this month's rally, the 2011 high crossing at 114.09 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 101.75 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 109.95. Second resistance is the 2011 high crossing at 114.09. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 104.95. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 101.75.
Natural gas [April contract] closed lower on Monday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near term. If April renews the multi year decline, monthly support crossing at 1.960 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 2.942 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.942. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 3.210. First support is January's low crossing at 2.438. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.960.
Gold [April contract] closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December decline crossing at 1825.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1706.40 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1789.50. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December decline crossing at 1825.20. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1706.40. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1652.20.
What To Expect in the Final Week Of February for Precious Metals, Gold Stocks & Dollar
Natural gas [April contract] closed lower on Monday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near term. If April renews the multi year decline, monthly support crossing at 1.960 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 2.942 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.942. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 3.210. First support is January's low crossing at 2.438. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.960.
Gold [April contract] closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December decline crossing at 1825.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1706.40 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1789.50. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December decline crossing at 1825.20. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1706.40. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1652.20.
What To Expect in the Final Week Of February for Precious Metals, Gold Stocks & Dollar
Labels:
Crude Oil,
diverging,
gold,
Natural Gas,
retracement,
RSI,
support
What To Expect in the Final Week Of February for Precious Metals, Gold Stocks & Dollar
This morning we are seeing the US Dollar index move higher retesting a short term breakdown resistance level. What this means is that the dollar fell below support and is not slowing drifting back up to test the breakdown level. As we all know once a support level is broken it then becomes resistance. So if that holds true with the current move in the dollar we should see stocks and commodities find a short term bottom and continue higher today or tomorrow from the looks of things.
Gold has been pulling back the past couple trading session on light volume which healthy price action. It has done the opposite of what the dollar did above. Gold broke through a key resistance level and is slowly drifting back down to test the breakout level to see if it is support. If so then gold should continue higher in the coming days.
Both silver and gold miner stocks are lagging the price of gold. They have yet to break through their key resistance levels. That being said it could happen an day now as they have both been flirting with that level for a couple trading sessions now.
Crude oil continues to hold up strong and is headed straight for its key resistance levels without any real pullback. Chasing price action like this is not something do often because risk reward is not in your favor. I am staying on the sidelines for oil until I see a setup that has more potential and less risk.
The equities market remains in a strong uptrend at this time. I do feel a 1-3 weeks pause/pullback could take place at any time but in the grand scheme of things we could be only half way through this runaway stock market rally as noted in the video.
The equities market is going to gap down this morning which is typical in a bull market. Remember. in an uptrend the stock market tends to gap lower at the open and close higher into the close. And it’s the opposite in a down trend with stocks gapping higher and sell off through the trading session.
Watch Chris Vermeulens detailed video analysis for this week at The Gold and Oil Guy Videos
Chris Vermeulen
The Gold and Oil Guy .Com
The Gold and Oil Guy .Com
Labels:
bull market,
Chris Vermeulen,
Crude Oil,
Dollar,
gold,
Gold Trading,
rade gold,
silver trading,
Trade Silver
Sunday, February 26, 2012
EIA: Asia is the World's Largest Petroleum Consumer
2010
Asia surpassed North America as the largest petroleum consuming region in 2008. Asian demand surged nearly 15 million barrels per day from 1980 to 2010, an increase of 146%. North America's petroleum consumption increased 16% between 1980 and 2010. Global petroleum consumption increased 36%, nearly 23 million barrels per day, during the period.
Together, the Middle Eastern, Central & South American, and African share of total global oil demand grew from 11% in 1980 to 20% in 2010 (see chart below). European demand for petroleum decreased 5% from 1980 to 2010, while consumption in the Former Soviet Union fell 55% in the same period.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics.
Note: Percents on graph represent that region's share of global petroleum production in that year. Percents do not sum to 100% for each year because the graph does not include Oceania, which only accounted for 1% of global consumption each year.
Saturday, February 25, 2012
Just Released, 50 Top Movers in 2012
What does a successful trader do that an unsuccessful trader can't seem to master? They quickly find and get in and out of the winning trades with expert precision. What does this better than anyone else? Smart money of course!
Big banks and financial institutions have the capital and agility to persuade large and medium cap stocks to move in a preferred direction. It may sound like they have the upper hand, but individual traders can join them in a move and profit from the ride.
Finding where the smart money is can be similar to a shell game, so how can you find where the smart money is going to strike next? The answer is simple: You find the top trending stocks! Strong trending stocks have major volume, a clear direction, and lots of liquidity - A.K.A where the smart money is. Wouldn't it be nice to find a list of current strong trending stocks?
MarketClub.com has been in the business of trend following for decades, and they are happy to announce that you can take a look at Today's Top 50 Trending Stocks now...for free! This dynamic report will compile a daily list of market movers that can make a difference in your portfolio for 2012.
It costs you nothing, and it could be the game changer you have been looking for.
It's time you started trading like the smart money, get started today for free!
Enjoy,
Ray @ The Crude Oil Trader
Ray @ The Crude Oil Trader
Labels:
Crude Oil,
MarketClub,
money,
stocks,
Trend
ONG: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday February 25th
From the staff at Oil N Gold......
Crude oil's rally continued last week as expected and reached as high as 109.95 so far. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and current rise should target a test on 114.83 key resistance next. On the downside, below 107.95 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first before staging another rise.
In the bigger picture, the medium term up trend from 33.2 shouldn't be completed yet. Rise from 74.95 is indeed tentatively treated as resumption of such rally. Sustained break of 114.83 will target 61.8% projection of 33.2 to 114.83 from 74.95 at 125.40. On the downside, though, break of 95.44 support will indicate that correction pattern from 114.83 is going to extend further with another falling leg to 74.95 and below before completion.
In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly, Monthly Charts
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
Crude oil's rally continued last week as expected and reached as high as 109.95 so far. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and current rise should target a test on 114.83 key resistance next. On the downside, below 107.95 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first before staging another rise.
In the bigger picture, the medium term up trend from 33.2 shouldn't be completed yet. Rise from 74.95 is indeed tentatively treated as resumption of such rally. Sustained break of 114.83 will target 61.8% projection of 33.2 to 114.83 from 74.95 at 125.40. On the downside, though, break of 95.44 support will indicate that correction pattern from 114.83 is going to extend further with another falling leg to 74.95 and below before completion.
In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly, Monthly Charts
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
Labels:
consolidation,
Crude Oil,
Oil N Gold,
reversal,
Stochastics
Friday, February 24, 2012
Is Crude Oil Topping Out or Resting to go Higher?
April crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If April extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of 2011's decline crossing at 109.54 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 101.23 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 108.74. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of 2011's decline crossing at 109.54. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 103.83. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 101.23. Todays pivot point for crude oil is 107.34.
After the recent run up in crude oil, we feel the market is now regrouping to gather strength to move higher. See our special report on crude oil. We are looking for crude oil to make it’s highs probably somewhere in the May period. With a Score of +100, this market is in a strong trend to the upside.
We remain longer term positive on this market. With our monthly, weekly and daily Trade Triangles in a positive mode, we expect we will see further gains in crude oil. Traders should be long this market with appropriate money management stops.
Make Sure to Check out today's 50 Top Trending Stocks
First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 108.74. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of 2011's decline crossing at 109.54. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 103.83. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 101.23. Todays pivot point for crude oil is 107.34.
After the recent run up in crude oil, we feel the market is now regrouping to gather strength to move higher. See our special report on crude oil. We are looking for crude oil to make it’s highs probably somewhere in the May period. With a Score of +100, this market is in a strong trend to the upside.
We remain longer term positive on this market. With our monthly, weekly and daily Trade Triangles in a positive mode, we expect we will see further gains in crude oil. Traders should be long this market with appropriate money management stops.
Make Sure to Check out today's 50 Top Trending Stocks
Labels:
Crude Oil,
RSI,
Stochastics,
trade triangles,
traders
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Natural Gas Pipeline Capacity Additions in 2011
The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that U.S. natural gas pipeline companies added about 2,400 miles of new pipe to the grid as part of over 25 projects in 2011. New pipeline projects entered service in parts of the U.S. natural gas grid that can be congested: California, Florida, and parts of the Northeast (see map above). Only a portion of this capacity serves incremental natural gas use; most of these projects facilitate better linkages across the existing natural gas grid.
By convention, the industry expresses annual capacity additions as the sum of the capacities of all the projects completed in that year. By this measure, the industry added 13.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of new capacity to the grid in 2011. The six largest projects put into service in 2011 added 1,553 miles and about 8.2 Bcf/d of new capacity to the system. Much of this new capacity is for transporting natural gas between states rather than within states. Golden Pass, Ruby Pipeline, FGT Phase VIII, Pascagoula Expansion, and Bison Pipeline projects added 6.1 Bcf/d, or about 80%, of new state to state capacity.
Natural gas pipeline capacity additions in 2011 were well above the 10 Bcf/d levels typical from 2001-2006, roughly the same as additions in 2007 and 2010, but significantly below additions in 2008 and 2009 (see chart below). Capacity added in 2008 and 2009 reflected a mix of intrastate and interstate natural gas pipeline expansions, related mostly to shale production, liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, and storage facilities.
Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of FCG, the Natural Gas ETF
Labels:
FCG,
intrastate,
LNG,
Natural Gas,
Pipeline,
storage,
UNG
Crude Oil Bulls Maintain Advantage Inside New Trading Range
Crude oil Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If April extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of 2011's decline crossing at 109.54 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 100.75 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 106.72. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of 2011's decline crossing at 109.54. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 102.88. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 100.75. Thursdays pivot point is 106.20.
Check out today's 50 Top Trending Stocks
First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 106.72. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of 2011's decline crossing at 109.54. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 102.88. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 100.75. Thursdays pivot point is 106.20.
Check out today's 50 Top Trending Stocks
Labels:
bullish,
Crude Oil,
moving average,
RSI,
Stochastics,
upside target
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Understanding The Basic Language of Option Trading
The peculiar vocabulary and concepts inhabiting an options trader’s thoughts are often the source of confusion to visitors to my world. I have often pondered that learning to understand options is a lot like learning a foreign language. When you arrive in the country whose language you seek to learn, you need a functional vocabulary immediately.
In order to be able to understand my world, I thought it would be helpful to discuss a bit of my language since it is helpful to grasp a few basics. I want to touch on some of the basic concepts necessary to form the basis for a functional language we can use to communicate concepts underlying a rational (hopefully) thought process leading to trade design and management.
In ruminations to come we will return to these fundamental concepts and begin to understand their function in the dynamic world of an options trader. The nuances of their specific structures are beyond the scope of this blog. We will return to consider these factors in virtually every trade because they re-appear each and every day in my world. For today, just shake their hands and remember their names.
One point not often discussed is the way in which options are priced. The quoted option price is in reality the sum of two separate components. These are referred to as the intrinsic and the extrinsic portions of the premium. I think of these as steak and sizzle respectively.
As I type, AAPL has closed at around $395. The January 390 call has 41 days to expiration and could have been bought for $18.90. Of this sum, $5 represents intrinsic premium and $13.90 represents extrinsic or time premium.
This is an important distinction because it is the extrinsic premium which is subject to time decay and change due to variations in implied volatility. We will get to a discussion of implied volatility in next week’s missive.
The intrinsic premium is subject to change solely due to changes in the price of the underlying security. There is no sizzle in the intrinsic premium; you can buy the option today, exercise it to buy stock, sell the stock, and pocket the $5. Of course, your trading career will not last long with that sort of trade, but my point is that the intrinsic premium has an easily calculable true value.
The situation with the extrinsic premium is quite different. The value changes not only with time to expiration but also with the constantly changing implied volatility. It is for this reason that an option trader must be very careful with this extrinsic component. Depending on the specific option under consideration, extrinsic premium may represent all, a portion, or a trivial amount of the entirety of the option premium.
Another important concept is that of the “moneyness” of an option. An individual option can be classified in one of three categories of “moneyness:”
- At the money
- In the money
- Out of the money
At the money options by definition consist of a single strike price. Both in the money and out of the money strikes usually contain several individual strikes within their groups.
In our example of AAPL, the at the money strike is the 395 strike. The in the money strikes consist of all calls with strike prices below 395 and all puts with strike prices above 395. The out of the money strikes consist of all calls above the 395 strike and all puts below the 395 strike.
Obviously since the price of the underlying defines the category into which an option is classified, the category into which an individual option fits is fluid and changes dynamically with the price of the underlying asset.
The reason for taking the time to discuss in some detail this classification of “moneyness” is that there are important reliable characteristics of each type of option.
At the money options characteristically contain the absolute greatest dollar amount of extrinsic premium. In the money options have the least amount of extrinsic premium. Out of the money options consist entirely of extrinsic premium, and therefore only contain sizzle......no steak can be found there.
Because the functional characteristics of these three categories of options differ, it is a basic strategy to combine options of different “moneyness” to achieve trades with the best probability of success and the highest risk/reward scenarios.
For example, buying an in the money call and selling an at the money call gives birth to a call debit spread, a high probability trade structure for the trader who is bullish in the underlying.
Next week we will cover the stealth concept of option trading, implied volatility. Failure to understand the impact of this variable is the most common cause of beginning options traders’ failure to succeed.
Join My Premium Options Writing Trading Service to Start Earning Monthly Income at Option Trading Signals.com
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)