Are you ready? Gold Traders and Investors Better Get Ready To Rumble!

We have talked about how gold, silver and gold mining stocks have been flying under the media radar for over a year and that they were not catching the attention of traders, investors and the public anymore. I also said it would take some sharp price action (breakdown or rally) for it to be front and center again on TV, Radio and Newspapers.

But since gold has plummeted 17.5% dropping from $1600 down to $1320 per ounce with silver and gold stocks falling also they are now headline news once again. This move has caused some serious damage to the charts when looking at it from a technical analysis point of view. Below are some basic analysis points that show a new swing trading entry point.

The Technical Traders Chart Analysis

Broken Support – Once a support level has been broken it becomes resistance. Gold is trading under a major resistance level.

Momentum Bursts - Since the April 15th low, gold has been setting up for another short selling entry point. Remember the market tends to move in bursts of three, seven or ten days then price reverses direction or pauses. It has now been 10 days.

Moving Average Resistance – Gold has worked its way up to the 20 day moving average which can act as resistance.

Bearish Inside Bars – This type of chart pattern points to lower prices. When there is a big down day followed by 3, 7 or 10 up days inside the price action of the down bar we can typically expect another sharp drop which tests the recent lows as shown with the arrow on the chart.



Gold Short Selling Conclusion:

In short, gold is setting up for a low risk entry point that should allow us to profit from lower gold prices. Using an inverse ETF like DZZ or even the gold mining stock inverse ETF DUST could be played. These funds go up in value as the price of gold falls.

While I expect gold to pullback, I do not think it will make another leg lower. Instead, a test of the recent low or pierce of the low by a few bucks then reverse and start building a bullish basing pattern before going higher.

From our trading partner Chris Vermeulen.

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Monday's Earnings Reports.....Atlas Pipeline Partners [APL] and Ensco [ESV]

Atlas Pipeline Partners (NYSE: APL) today reported adjusted earnings before interest, income taxes, depreciation and amortization ("Adjusted EBITDA"), of $67.7 million for the first quarter of 2013, driven primarily by a continued increase in volumes across the Partnership's gathering and processing systems. Processed natural gas volumes averaged 1,033 million cubic feet per day ("MMCFD"), a 63% increase over the first quarter of 2012.

Distributable Cash Flow was $43.5 million for the first quarter of 2013, or $0.67 per average common limited partner unit, compared to $35.2 million for the prior year's first quarter. The Partnership recognized a net loss of $27.5 million for the first quarter of 2013, which included a $26.6 million loss on the early retirement of the Partnership's 8.75% Senior Notes due 2018, compared with net income of $6.5 million for the prior year first quarter.

Adjusted EBITDA and Distributable Cash Flow are non-GAAP financial measures, which are reconciled to their most directly comparable GAAP measures in the tables included at the end of this news release. The Partnership believes these measures provide a more accurate comparison of the operating results for the periods presented......Read the entire Atlas Pipeline Partners earnings report.

Ensco plc (NYSE: ESV) reported diluted earnings per share from continuing operations of $1.36 in first quarter 2013, compared to $1.20 per share in first quarter 2012. Discontinued operations primarily related to rigs and other assets no longer on the Company’s balance sheet resulted in a loss of $0.05 per share a year ago. Diluted earnings per share increased 18% year to year to $1.36 from $1.15 in first quarter 2012.

Earnings increased $52 million to $317 million and operating income grew 17% to $402 million on record revenues of $1.150 billion in first quarter 2013. These increases were driven by a $28,000 increase in the average day rate and a 6% increase in floater rig days as new rigs were added to the active fleet......Read the entire Ensco earnings report.

Make sure to catch all of Doc Severson's video series and download the PDF's while the links still work....

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Ever wonder why 70% of mutual fund managers can't beat the S&P?

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After watching the presentation please feel free to leave a comment and let us [and our readers] know what you really think about Doc's new system. And since you can put this method right to work...no matter what the size of account is....we'll see you in the markets next week.

Ray C. Parrish
The Crude Oil Trader

Where is the Larger Bubble: the S&P 500 Index or U.S. Treasuries?

Today we have a plethora of companies reporting earnings and are moving through the 1st Quarter earnings season at a rapid pace. Thus far, earnings have been far from exciting and have made the previous 2013 forward earnings estimates laughable.

The only way we get to the proposed valuations is through multiple expansion which is simply going to require the Federal Reserve to continue to pump $85 billion into Treasury’s and MBS securities each month. I am confident they will comply.

There are a few analysts out there who are discussing the potential bubble forming in equities and other risk assets as Bernanke’s plan is working to the extent that asset prices are rising. However, even fewer analysts are pointing out that both retail and institutional money is constantly chasing yield at this point.

Simply take a look at the 2013 price action in high yield dividend paying stocks, high yield bonds, preferred stocks, and master limited partnerships. It is safe to say that a bubble has formed not just in equities, but in various fixed investments as well.

Consider the following chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) shown as the dotted trendline and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) shown as the solid black line.....Read the entire article "Where is the Larger Bubble: the S&P 500 Index or U.S. Treasuries"


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Friday's Earnings.....Chevron [CVX], National Oilwell Varco [NOV] and Total [TOT]

Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) today reported earnings of $6.2 billion ($3.18 per share – diluted) for the first quarter 2013, compared with $6.5 billion ($3.27 per share – diluted) in the 2012 first quarter. Sales and other operating revenues in the first quarter 2013 were $54 billion, down from $59 billion in the year - ago period, mainly due to lower prices for crude oil.

“Our first quarter earnings were strong, ”said Chairman and CEO John Watson. “Our consistent financial performance has enabled us to significantly increase the dividend again, and fund major development projects that are the foundation of the company’s future growth in production, earnings and cash flows.” “Our key development projects remain on track,” Watson added.

“Construction is progressing well on the Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG projects in Australia. Important milestones have been reached recently for our Jack/St. Malo and Big Foot deepwater projects in the Gulf of Mexico, and both remain on schedule for start - up in 2014”......Read the entire Chevron earnings report.

National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV) today reported that for its first quarter ended March 31, 2013 it earned net income of $502 million, or $1.17 per fully diluted share, compared to fourth quarter ended December 31, 2012 net income of $668 million, or $1.56 per fully diluted share. The first quarter 2013 results included transaction costs primarily related to the Robbins & Myers acquisition and Venezuela currency devaluation charges, which combined for a total of $73 million in pre tax costs and charges. Excluding these costs and charges, earnings were $553 million, or $1.29 per fully diluted share.

Revenues for the first quarter of 2013 were $5.31 billion, a decrease of seven percent from the fourth quarter of 2012 and an increase of 23 percent from the first quarter of 2012. Operating profit for the quarter, excluding the transaction charges, was $816 million, or 15.4 percent of sales. Sequentially, first quarter operating profit decreased 14 percent, while year-over-year first quarter operating profit decreased seven percent......Read the entire National Oilwell Varco earnings report.

Total (TOT) reports 1st quarter adjusted net profit -7.1% to €2.86B, slightly below consensus of €2.95B. Net profit -58% to €1.54B, due to higher taxes and a €1.25B loss related to the sale of a Canadian oil sands project. Revenues -6% to €48.13B. Oil prices -5%. As expected, oil and gas output -2% to 2.32M barrels of oil equivalent a day, with the decline due to the shutdown of the U.K.'s Elgin-Franklin gas fields, natural decline rates, and maintenance. Remains confident of achieving targets. Total declares a 1st quarter dividend of $0.59 per share, unchanged from previous quarter. ADR timetable: Ex dividend date September 19th, record date September 23, Payment date October 15th......Read the entire Total earnings report.

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More earnings reports.....ExxonMobil [XOM], ConocoPhillips [COP], Hercules Offshore [HERO] and Occidental Petroleum [OXY]

Exxon Mobil (XOM) reports 1st quarter EPS of $2.12 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $108.8B misses by $11.03B. E&P earnings declined 9.8% to $7.04B as total oil and natural gas production fell 3.5% Y/Y to 4.395M boe/day. Refining and marketing earnings fell 2.6% to $1.55B while refining driven margins increased earnings by $780M. Chemical profits rose 62%; corporate and financing expenses fell sharply due to "favorable tax impacts." Shares -0.5% premarket.

Chairman Rex W. Tillerson comments....“ExxonMobil achieved strong results during the first quarter of 2013, while investing significantly to develop new energy supplies. ExxonMobil’s financial performance enables continued investment to deliver the energy needed to help meet growing demand, support economic growth, and raise living standards around the world......Read the entire ExxonMobil earnings report.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) today reported first-quarter 2013 earnings of $2.1 billion, or $1.73 per share, compared with first-quarter 2012 earnings of $2.9 billion, or $2.27 per share. First-quarter 2012 reported earnings included $0.7 billion from downstream operations prior to the separation of Phillips 66 on April 30, 2012.

Excluding special items, first-quarter 2013 adjusted earnings were $1.8 billion, or $1.42 per share, compared with first-quarter 2012 adjusted earnings of $1.8 billion, or $1.38 per share. Special items for the current quarter primarily related to asset sales and discontinued operations.

Following previous announcements to dispose of the company’s interests in Kashagan and the Algeria and Nigeria businesses, the associated earnings and production impacts for these assets have been reported as discontinued operations. This decreased adjusted earnings for first-quarter 2013 by $62 million, or $0.05 per share......Read the entire ConocoPhillips earnings report.

Hercules Offshore (Nasdaq: HERO) today reported net income of $35.2 million, or $0.22 per diluted share, on revenue of $205.3 million for the first quarter 2013, compared with a net loss of $38.3 million, or $0.28 per diluted share, on revenue of $143.3 million for the first quarter 2012. First quarter 2013 results include a non-cash tax gain of $37.7 million, or $0.24 per diluted share, relating to the Seahawk acquisition which was completed in April 2011.

John T. Rynd, Chief Executive Officer and President of Hercules Offshore stated, "Market conditions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico remain strong, as dayrates continue to trend higher and contract backlog stays near record levels. Our first rig reactivation, the Hercules 209, is nearing completion, and we are assessing market demand for a second reactivation. Internationally, we continue to add scale and upgrade our global fleet. We recently commenced operations on the Hercules 266 under its long term contract, and closed on the acquisitions of the Hercules 267 (formerly Ben Avon) and the White Shark (formerly Titan 2).

These acquisitions demonstrate our ability to successfully deploy capital toward high return opportunities, while de-risking the investments with assets that have strong long term demand prospects and through long term contracts. We continue to look for acquisition opportunities to enhance our international footprint and high-grade our asset base"......Read the entire Hercules Offshore earnings report.

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY) announced income from continuing operations of $1.4 billion ($1.69 per diluted share) for the first quarter of 2013, compared with $1.6 billion ($1.92 per diluted share) for the first quarter of 2012. Net income for the first quarter of 2013 was also $1.4 billion ($1.68 per diluted share).

In announcing the results, Stephen I. Chazen, President and Chief Executive Officer, said, "Our first quarter domestic production of 478,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, of which 342,000 barrels per day were liquids, set a record for the tenth consecutive quarter. Our total company production of 763,000 barrels of oil equivalent in the first quarter of 2013 was 8,000 barrels higher than production in first quarter of 2012.

"We executed well in the first quarter and to date are running ahead of our full-year objectives in our program to improve domestic operational and capital efficiencies. We have reduced both our domestic well and operating costs by about 19 percent relative to 2012. Overall, we generated cash flow from operations of $2.9 billion before changes in working capital for the first quarter of 2013 and invested $2.1 billion in capital expenditures"......Read the entire Occidental Petroleum earnings report.

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See you in the markets,
Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO
The Crude Oil Trader


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More earnings....Cabot Oil and Gas [COG] and Hess [HES]

Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation (NYSE: COG) today reported its financial results for the first quarter of 2013. Highlights for the quarter include:

*    Production of 89.3 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe), an increase of 50 percent over last year's comparable quarter and 13 percent over the fourth quarter of 2012.
*    Net income of $42.8 million, or $0.20 per share.
*    Net income excluding selected items of $54.2 million, or $0.26 per share.
*    Cash flow from operations of $212.7 million and discretionary cash flow of $234.4 million.

"The success of our drilling program in the Marcellus continues to drive record operating and financial metrics for the Company, including all-time highs for quarterly production, revenues, operating cash flows and discretionary cash flows, despite historically low realized natural gas prices," said Dan O. Dinges, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer......Read the entire Cabot Oil and Gas earnings report.

Hess Corporation (NYSE: HES) today reported net income of $1,276 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2013. Adjusted earnings, which exclude gains on asset sales and other items affecting comparability of earnings between periods, were $669 million, or $1.95 per common share, representing a 30 percent increase on a per share basis over the same quarter last year.

The Corporation generated net cash flow from operations of $819 million during the first quarter while reducing capital and exploratory expenditures by $355 million, a reduction of 18 percent in the year over year period. The Company continues to make progress on its asset sales.

In the first quarter, the Corporation completed the sales of its interests in the Beryl area fields in the United Kingdom North Sea, the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli (ACG) fields in Azerbaijan, and announced the sale of its acreage in the Eagle Ford shale play in Texas, relieving Hess of approximately $500 million of future capital requirements over the next three years......Read the entire Hess earnings report.



Picking the top "Dividend Paying Stocks"
 

Earnings Reports...Ecana, FMC Technologies, Nabors Industries and Newfield Exploration ECA, FMC, NBR, NFX

In the first quarter of 2013 Encana (NYSE:ECA) achieved significant milestones in a number of its oil and liquids rich natural gas plays including strong well results from the Duvernay and Peace River Arch plays and confirmation of the commerciality of its San Juan play. Solid operational performance resulted in a 48 percent increase in oil and natural gas liquids (NGL) volumes with average production rising to 43,500 barrels per day (bbls/d) in the first quarter of 2013 compared to 29,300 bbls/d in the first quarter of last year. Encana's average natural gas production volumes for the first quarter were 2,877 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d). "We are pleased with the progress made to date in a number of our emerging plays and the growth in our overall liquids production," says Clayton Woitas, Interim President & CEO. "Proving the commercial success of emerging plays is one of our main goals this year and we intend to do so while preserving the financial strength and flexibility of the company".....Read the entire Encana report.

FMC Technologies (NYSE:FTI) today reported first quarter 2013 revenue of $1.6 billion, up 18 percent from the prior-year quarter. Diluted earnings per share were $0.43 compared to $0.41 in the prior-year quarter. Total inbound orders were $1.8 billion and included $1.2 billion in Subsea Technologies' orders. Backlog for the Company was $5.4 billion, including Subsea Technologies' backlog of $4.6 billion.

"We are pleased to report another quarter of strong subsea orders and revenue," said John Gremp, Chairman and CEO of FMC Technologies. "Additionally, we are encouraged by the overall subsea industry awards this quarter and believe we are on pace for a record year." "Surface Technologies' international surface wellhead business delivered strong performance again in the first quarter. We expect this to continue as activity in both the Middle East and Europe continues to grow".....Read the entire FMC Technologies.

Nabors Industries (NYSE:NBR) today reported its financial results for the first quarter of 2013. Adjusted income derived from operating activities was $149.6 million, compared to $315.5 million in the first quarter of 2012 and $149.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2012. Operating cash flow (EBITDA) was $423.0 million for the first quarter compared to $563.2 million and $427.0 million, respectively, in the first and fourth quarters of last year. Net income from continuing operations was $97.2 million ($0.33 per diluted share), compared to $142.6 million ($0.49 per diluted share) in the first quarter of 2012 and $129.3 million ($0.44 per diluted share) in the fourth quarter of 2012.

Operating revenues and earnings from unconsolidated affiliates for this quarter totaled $1.58 billion, compared to $1.82 billion in the comparable quarter of the prior year and $1.60 billion in the fourth quarter of 2012. First quarter results included a gain on the sale of a large portion of marketable securities net of charges related to the previously disclosed CEO employment contract restructuring. The quarter's results also benefited from a lower effective tax rate, principally attributable to the settlement of a long outstanding tax dispute.....Read the entire Nabors earnings report.

Newfield Exploration (NYSE: NFX) today reported its unaudited first quarter 2013 financial results and provided an update on its operations. The Company's year-to-date operational highlights are detailed in a "new" @NFX publication, located on Newfield's website. Newfield will host a conference call at 8:30 a.m. CDT on April 24, 2013. To listen to the call and view the slide deck, please visit Newfield's website at http://www.newfield.com. To participate in the call, dial 719-325-4824.

For the first quarter, the Company posted a net loss of $8 million, or $0.06 per diluted share (all per share amounts are on a diluted basis). Net income for the first quarter includes a net unrealized loss on commodity derivatives of $111 million ($69 million after-tax), or $0.51 per share. Without the impact of this item, net income for the first quarter of 2013 would have been $61 million, or $0.45 per diluted share.

Revenues for the first quarter of 2013 were $651 million. Net cash provided by operating activities before changes in operating assets and liabilities was $323 million. See "Explanation and Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures" found after the financial statements in this release.....Read the entire Newfield earnings report.


The 2 Energy Sectors You Should Invest in This Year

Ever wonder why 70% of mutual fund managers can't beat the SP 500?

What a coincidence, I make my rare stop into the used book store around the corner from our house and am lucky enough to find a like new copy of Jack Bogles "Common Sense on Mutual Funds". After getting started reading I realized, I have to get in the office and create this article for our new launch...."Ever wonder why 70% of mutual fund managers can't beat the SP 500". Totally a coincidence, I swear.

Bogle is the father of the modern day fund in my book. And he has taken a lot of criticism for his finger pointing at the majority of new fund managers that have come into this game. While the number of fund managers have more then tripled in the last couple of decades the number of customers has stayed pretty much the same. And profits have fallen off dramatically. How do they stay in business?

Twenty years from now we will only be talking about a hand full of "out of the box thinkers" who helped the average investor beat the fund managers and one of them I would bet will be Doc Severson.

Doc is one of the world's top options traders, and he just created an eye opening presentation that exposes much of the truth behind what it takes to make a consistent income in the markets and why countless financial planners (who people hire to supposedly protect their assets!) lose a shocking amount of money in market crashes.

Even if you are an advanced trader it's nearly impossible for you to watch the video and not find a few nuggets of information that could change the way you look at your own trading and keep you from making some of the same ordinary mistakes that everybody else is making.

Click here to watch > "Ever wonder why 70% of mutual fund managers can't beat the SP 500"

After you watch the video, please feel free to leave a comment and tell us if you were making any of the same mistakes he mentions in the report? I think you'll be surprised, I was....because I have.

Watch this video today....this just might change everything.