Mining and the Environment — Facts vs. Fear

By Laurynas Vegys, Research Analyst

“I would NEVER invest in a mining company—they destroy land, pollute our water and air, and wreck the habitat of plants and animals.”


These were the points made to me by a woman at a social gathering after I told her what I do for living. She prided herself on her moral high ground and looked upon me with obvious disdain. It was clear that as a mining researcher, I was partly responsible for destroying the environment.

I knew a reasonable discussion with her wouldn’t be possible, so I opted out of trying. (As Winston Churchill said, “A fanatic is one who can’t change his mind and won’t change the subject.”) She left the party convinced her position was indisputably correct. But was she?

Not at all.

In fact, with few exceptions, today’s mining operations are designed, developed, operated, and ultimately closed in an environmentally sound manner. On top of that, considerable effort goes into the continued improvement of environmental standards.

My environmentalist acquaintance, of course, would loudly disagree with those statements. Many people may feel uncomfortable investing in an industry that’s so closely scrutinized and vehemently criticized by the public and mainstream media—whether there’s good reason for that criticism or not. This actually is to the benefit of those who dare to think for themselves.

So let’s examine what mining REALLY does to the environment. As Doug Casey always says, we should start by defining our terms…

How Do You Define “Environment”?

In modern mining, the term “environment” is broader than just air, water, land, and plant and animal life. It also encompasses the social, economic, and cultural environment and, ultimately, the health and safety conditions of anyone involved with or affected by a given mining activity.

Armed with this more comprehensive view of the industry’s impact on the environment, we can evaluate the effects of mining and its benefits in a more holistic fashion.

Impact on the Economy

According to a study commissioned by the World Gold Council, to take an example from mining of our favorite metal, the gold mines in the world’s top 15 producing countries generated about US$78.4 billion of direct Gross Value Added (GVA) in 2012. (GVA measures the contribution to the economy of each individual producer, industry, or sector in a country.) That sum is roughly the annual GDP of Ecuador or Azerbaijan, or 30% of the estimated GDP of Shanghai, China. Here’s a look at the GVA for each of these countries.

Keep in mind that this doesn’t include the indirect effects of gold mining that come from spending in the supply chain and by employees on goods and services. If this impact were reflected in the numbers, the overall economic contribution of gold mining would be significantly larger. Also, it’s evident that gold mining’s imprint on national economies varies considerably. For countries like Papua New Guinea, Ghana, Tanzania, and Uzbekistan, gold mining is one of the principal sources of prosperity.

Another measure of economic contribution is the jobs created and supported by businesses. The chart below shows the share of jobs created of each major gold-producing country.

The four countries with the highest numbers of gold mining employees are South Africa (145,000), Russia (138,000), China (98,200), and Australia (32,300). The industry also employs 18,600 in Indonesia, 17,100 in Tanzania, and 16,100 in Papua New Guinea. (As an aside, it’s quite telling that South Africa employs more gold miners than China, but China produces more gold than South Africa.)

Note that these employment figures don’t include jobs in the artisanal and small-scale production mining fields, or any type of indirect employment attributable to gold mining—so they understate the actual figures
For many countries, gold mining accounts for a significant share of exports. As an example, gold merchandise comprised 36% of Tanzanian and 26% of Ghana’s and Papua New Guinea’s exports in 2012.

Below, you see a more comprehensive picture of gold exports by 15 major gold-producing countries.

Other, often overlooked ways in which the mining industry supports the economy include:

• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The three mining giants—Canada, the United States, and Australia—have been dominating this category for a number of years, both as the primary destinations for investment and as the main investor countries.

• Government revenue. All mining businesses, regardless of jurisdiction, have to pay certain levies on their revenue and earnings, including license fees, resource rents, withholding and sales taxes, export duties, corporate income taxes, and various royalties. Taken all together, these payments make up a large portion of overall mining costs. For example, estimates suggest that the total of mining royalty payments in 2012 across the top gold-producing countries worked out to the tune of US$4.1 billion. This, of course, doesn’t account for other types of tax normally applied to the mining industry.

• Gold products. Gold as a symbol of prosperity and the ultimate “wealth insurance” is very important to many nations around the globe—especially in Asia and Africa. Gold jewelry is given as a dowry to brides and as gifts at major holidays. In India, the government’s ban on gold purchases by the public led to so much smuggling that the incoming prime minister is considering removing it. Chinese, Vietnamese, and peoples of India and Africa may all be divided across linguistic lines, but they all share the view of gold being a symbol of prosperity and ultimate insurance against life’s uncertainties.

It’s also important to note that jobs with modern mining companies are usually the most desirable options for poverty stricken people in the remote areas where many mines are built. These jobs not only pay more than anything else in such regions, they provide training and health benefits simply not available anywhere else.
Mining provides work with dignity and a chance at a better future for hundreds of thousands of struggling families all around the world.

Let’s now have a look at the most debated and contentious side to mining.

Impact on the (Physical) Environment

In previous millennia, humans labored with little concern for the environment. Resources seemed infinite, and the land vast and adaptable to our needs. An older acquaintance of ours who grew up in 1930s Pittsburgh remembers the constant coal soot hanging in the air: “Every day, it got dark around noon time.” Victorian London was famous for its noxious, smoky, sulfurous fog, year round.

Initially, the mining industry followed the same trend. Early mine operations had little, if any, regard for the environment, and were usually abandoned with no thought given to cleaning up the mess once an ore body was depleted.

In the second half of the 20^th century, however, the situation turned around, as the mining industry realized the need to better understand and mitigate its impact on the environment.

The force of law, it must be admitted, had a lot to do with this change, but today, what is sometimes called “social permitting” frequently has an even more powerful regulatory effect than government mandates. Today’s executives understand that good environmental stewardship is good business—and many have strong personal environmental ethics.

That said, mining is an extractive industry, and it’s always going to have an impact. Here’s a quick look at some of the biggest environmental scares associated with gold mining and how they are confronted today.

Mercury

Symbol: Hg

Occurrence in the earth’s crust: Rare

Toxicity: High

Mercury, also known as quicksilver, has been used to process gold and silver since the Roman era. Mercury doesn’t break down in the environment and is highly toxic for both humans and animals. Today, the use of mercury is largely limited to artisanal and illegal mining. Industrial mining companies have switched to more efficient and less environmentally damaging techniques (e.g., cyanide leaching).

Developing countries with a heavy illegal mining presence, on the other hand, have seen mercury pollution increase. The United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) estimates that 1,000 tons of mercury are annually released into the air, soil, and water as a result of illegal mining activity.

To help combat the problem, the mining industry, through the members of the International Council on Mining & Metals (ICMM), has partnered with governments of those nations to transfer low- or no-mercury processing technologies to the artisanal mining sector.

Sodium Cyanide

Mining compound employed: NaCN

Occurrence in nature: Common

Toxicity: High

This is one of the widely used chemicals in the industry that can make people’s emotions run high. Historically considered a deadly poison, cyanide has been implicated in events such as the Holocaust, Middle Eastern wars, and the Jonestown suicides. Given such associations, it’s no wonder that the public perceives it with alarm, without even adding mining to the equation.

It is important, however, to understand that cyanide:

• is a naturally occurring chemical;
• is not toxic in all forms or all concentrations;
• has a wide range of industrial uses and is safely manufactured, stored, and transported every day;
• is biodegradable and doesn’t build up in fish populations;
• is not cumulative in humans and is metabolized at low exposure levels;
• should not be confused with Acid Rock Drainage (ARD; see below); and
• is not a heavy metal.

Cyanide is one of only a few chemical reagents that dissolves gold in water and has been used to leach gold from various ores for over a hundred years. This technique—known as cyanidation—is considered a much safer alternative to extraction with liquid mercury, which was previously the main method used. Cyanidation has been the dominant gold extraction technology since the 1970s; in Canada, more than 90% of gold mined is processed with cyanide.

Despite its many advantages for industrial uses, cyanide remains acutely toxic to humans and obviously is a concern on the environmental front. There are two primary environmental risks from gold cyanidation:

• Cyanide might leach into the soil and ground water at toxic concentrations.
• A catastrophic spill could contaminate the ecosystem with toxic levels of cyanide.

In response to these concerns, gold mining companies around the world have developed precautionary systems to prevent the escape of cyanide into the environment—for example, special leach pads lined with a plastic membrane to prevent the cyanide from invading the soil. The cyanide is subsequently captured and recycled.

Further, to minimize the environmental impact of any cyanide that is not recycled, mine facilities treat cyanide waste through several processes that allow it to degrade naturally through sunlight, hydrolysis, and oxidation.

Acid Rock Drainage (ARD)

Target chemical: Sulfuric acid

ARD occurrence in nature: Common

Toxicity: Varies

Contrary to popular belief, ARD is the natural oxidation of sulfide minerals such as pyrite when these are exposed to air and water. The result of this oxidation is an increase in the acidity of the water, sometimes to dangerous levels. The problem intensifies when the acid comes into contact with high levels of metals and thereby dissolves them, which adds to the water contamination.

Once again, ARD is a natural process that can happen whenever such rocks are exposed on the surface of the earth, even when no mining was involved at all. Possible sources of ARD at a mine site can include waste-rock piles, tailings storage facilities, and mine openings. However, since many mineral deposits contain little or no pyrite, ARD is a potential issue only at mines with specific rock types.

Part of a mining company’s environmental assessment is to conduct technical studies to evaluate the ARD potential of the rocks that may be disturbed. Once ARD has developed, the company may employ measures to prevent its spread or reduce the migration of ARD waters and perhaps even treat the water to reduce acidity and remove dissolved metals.

In some places where exposed sulfide minerals are already causing ARD, a clean, modern mine that treats all outflowing water can actually improve water quality.

Arsenic

Symbol: As

Occurrence in the earth’s crust: Moderate

Toxicity: High

Similar to mercury, arsenic is a naturally occurring element that is commonly found as an impurity in metal ores. In fact, arsenic is the 33rd most abundant element in the earth’s crust and is present in rocks and soil, in natural waters, and in small amounts in all living things. For comparison, silver (Ag) is 47th and gold (Au) 79th (see the periodic table of elements). Arsenic is toxic in large doses.

The largest contribution of arsenic from the mining industry comes from atmospheric emissions from copper smelting. It can also, however, leach out of some metal ores through ARD and, when present, needs to be removed as an impurity to produce a saleable product.

Several pollution-control technologies have been successful at capturing and removing arsenic from smelting stacks and mine tailings. As a result, between 1993 and 2009, the release of arsenic from mining activities in Canada fell by 79%. Similar figures have been reported in other countries.

Mythbusters

Now, here’s our quick stab at dispelling the three most widespread myths environmentalists commonly bring up in their rants against the mining industry.

Myth 1: Mining Uses Excessive Amounts of Land

Reality: Less than 1% of the total land area in any given jurisdiction is allotted for mining operations (normally far less than that). Even a modest forestry project affects far more trees than the largest open-pit mine. Mining activities must also meet stringent environmental standards before a company can even get a permit to operate.

The assessment process applied to mining operations is very detailed and based on a long string of policies and regulations (e.g., the National Environmental Policy Act in the US). Environmentalists may claim that the mining industry is rife with greedy land barons, but there’s more than enough evidence to the contrary.

Myth 2: Mining Is Always Detrimental to the Water Supply

Reality: Quite the opposite, actually. Before mine operations start, a mining company must submit a project proposal that includes detailed water utility studies (which are then evaluated by scientists and government agencies). Many companies even install water supply systems in local communities that lack easy access to this basic resource. It’s also common for the rocks to be mined to be naturally acid-generating—a problem the mine cleans up, by its very nature.

Some die hard zealots blame the mining industry for consuming huge amounts of water, but in fact it normally only uses +1% of the total water supplied to a given community, and 80% of that water is recycled continuously.

Myth 3: Mining Is Invasive to the Natural Environment

Reality: Yes, mining activity in certain countries has led to negative outcomes for certain plants and animals—not to mention the rocks themselves, which are blasted and hauled away. However, the industry has progressed a long way in the last few decades and, apart from rare accidents, the worst is behind us now.

The key determinant here is compliance. All mining activity must comply with strict environmental guidelines, leading up to and during operations and also following mine closure. After mining activity ends, the company is required to rehabilitate the land. In some cases, the land is remediated into forests, parks, or farmland—and left in better condition than before.

It’s worth reiterating that in some cases—where there’s naturally occurring ARD or where hundreds of years of irresponsible mining have led to environmental disasters—a modern mine is a solution to the problem that pays for itself.

Can You Be Pro-Mining and an Environmentalist? Absolutely.

Gold mining (and mining in general) is extractive and will always leave some mark on our planet. Over time, however, the risks have been mitigated by modern mining technologies. This is an ongoing process; even mining asteroids instead of planet Earth is now the subject of serious consideration among today’s most visionary entrepreneurs.

Meanwhile, the (vastly diminished) risks associated with mining are far outweighed by the economic contribution and positive effects on local communities and the greater society. This net positive contribution is here to stay—unless our civilization opts for collective suicide by sending us all back to the Stone Age.

Right now, gold and gold stocks are so undervalued that you can build a sizable portfolio at a fraction of what you would have had to spend just a few years ago. To discover the best ways to invest in gold, read Casey Research’s 2014 Gold Investor’s Guide—Get it for Free Here.

The article Mining & Environment—Facts vs. Fear was originally published at Casey Research

Sign up for one of our Free Trading Webinars....Just Click Here!

Looking at the Middle Kingdom with Fresh Eyes

By John Mauldin

I am writing this introductory note from London during a layover on my way to Rome, and I’ll append a personal ending tonight after I finally make my way back from dinner to the hotel.

One of the few consensus ideas that I took away from the Strategic Investment Conference is that China has the potential to become a real problem. It seemed to me that almost everyone who addressed the topic was either seriously alarmed at the extent of China’s troubles or merely very worried. Perhaps it was the particular group of speakers we had, but no one was sanguine. If you recall, a few weeks back I introduced my young colleague and protégé Worth Wray to you; and his inaugural Thoughts from the Frontline focused on China, a topic on which he is well versed, having lived and studied there. Our conversations often center on China and emerging markets (and we tend to talk and write to each other a lot). While I’m on the road, Worth is once again visiting China in this week’s letter, summing up our research and contributing his own unique style and passion. I think regular TFTF readers are going to enjoy Worth’s occasional missives and will want to see more of them over time. Now, let’s turn it over to my able young Cajun friend.

Editors’ note: With John up to his eyeballs in prosecco and peaches there on the patio in Trequanda this morning and with Worth just getting the sleep out of his eyes in Houston, we are hereby making an executive decision to split this 22 page beast masterpiece right up its middle and bring you the second half next week … which will give both these guys some well earned rest!  – Charley & Lisa Sweet

Looking at the Middle Kingdom with Fresh Eyes

By Worth Wray (Houston, TX)

In my Thoughts from the Frontline debut this past March (“China’s Minsky Moment?”), I highlighted the massive bubble in Chinese private sector debt and explored the near term prospects for either (1) a reform induced slowdown or (2) a crisis induced recession. Unfortunately, it was not an easy or straightforward analysis, considering the glaring inconsistencies between “official” state compiled data and more concrete measures of real economic activity.

More Questions Than Answers

Although John and I spend hours every week searching for the truth in a murky stream of official and unofficial reports, we always reach the same conclusion about the People’s Republic: There is really no way to know what is happening in China today, much less what will happen tomorrow, based on widely available data. The primary data is flawed at best and manipulated at worst. Sometimes the most revealing insights lie in the disagreement between the official and unofficial reports… suggesting that official data is useful only to the extent that we think about it as state-sanctioned propaganda. In other words, it tells us what Chinese policymakers want the world to believe.

This shortfall in credible and actionable data from one of the global economy’s largest and most interconnected members leaves us with more questions than answers – especially in the presence of a massive Chinese credit bubble, with clear signs of overinvestment and unsustainably high debt-service ratios. These are troubling signs for all investors, in every asset class, everywhere in the world today… and everyone should be paying close attention.

(I should note that John has access to a massive amount of research from a very wide variety of both traditional and nontraditional sources… and I say that after having extraordinary access myself as the portfolio strategist for an $18B Texas money manager. I am seeing and reading things every day that I could only imagine before, and the information flow is addictive. John’s sources give us a big, if sometimes overwhelming, head start on thinking through all the implications for investing around the constant collisions of macroeconomic forces. While we legally and ethically cannot share some of the best research we see, we can share a lot of the core ideas and do our best to give you a head start, too. That’s what this letter is about.)

Read the Tea Leaves Carefully & Expect Miscues

Most China economists – who do the best they can to read the economic tea leaves by focusing on a handful of economic indicators ranging from gross domestic product (GDP), purchasing managers’ indices (PMI), consumer/producer inflation (CPI/PPI), total social finance, and industrial production – end up expressing a rather bipolar view on Chinese economic activity, with wild swings in their outlooks from quarter to quarter.

On this front, I was particularly impressed by an explosive letter (viewable by Over My Shoulder subscribers only) from our friends at Political Alpha, which remains one of the elite political intelligence/analysis firms on the Street. While China watchers tend to trade reactively around official and unofficial manufacturing PMI releases as monthly proxies for the broader economy, very few investors realize that “not only is manufacturing no longer the bellwether of the [Chinese] economy, more often than not it now performs counter cyclically.”

Although China is the world’s largest producer of value added manufactured goods, it has not been an export led economy for a very long time. As I detailed in last month’s letter, China’s growth has largely relied on extraordinarily high levels of fixed investment, supported by even higher levels of domestic savings and an unsustainable rise in private sector credit.


Source: Wayne M. Morrison, China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, & Implications for the United States. Congressional Research Service, February 3, 2014

Even so, industry experts often fall into the trap of extrapolating flash manufacturing readings into forecasts for the broader economy.

Our friends at Political Alpha describe one such situation where HSBC’s China team (which puts out the unofficial monthly PMI each month in partnership with MarkIt) “was forced to backpedal from its September 23^rd announcement that the flash PMI data was ‘further evidence [of] China’s ongoing growth rebound’ to a much more somber conclusion just seven days later: ‘There are still a lot of structural headwinds ahead. This is as good as it gets for the time being…. [D]on’t expect too sharp an acceleration from here."

Feel free to compare the clips yourself:

• HSBC release on 9/23: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101053388

• HSBC release on 9/29: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101071631

On a side note, I don’t mean to disparage the China research team at HSBC or question their competency by reprinting the comments above. I’m sure they get up each morning (just like I do) with a genuine intent to understand changing economic conditions as best they can and to help their clients protect and grow their savings. If anything, this example is a broader indictment of investors’ widespread reliance on a handful of flawed or misunderstood data points in the absence of credible Chinese economic data.

I don’t mean to be cute or coy on this issue. The lack of transparency of the Chinese economy is not just a problem for individual and institutional investors who make the choice every day to put their money at risk; it also carries enormous policy implications for central bankers and elected politicians in a highly unstable global system where total debt-to-GDP has risen across the world’s major economies by nearly 35% since 2008… and continues to rise.


Source: Hoisington Investment Management Company, May 2014

As you can see in the table above (which Dr. Lacy Hunt was kind enough to share with us at this year’s Strategic Investment Conference), China has seen its total debt to income ratio jump by more than 100% (another full turn of GDP) in the last five years… more debt growth than any other major economy on the planet, including Japan.

Pulling Back the Bamboo Curtain 

Fortunately, my last letter on China’s debt build up sparked a flurry of introductions and fresh conversations with investors, economists, and policymakers from around the world – in places like London, Spain, South Africa, Singapore, Dubai, Australia, Hong Kong, and Finland. Of course, John has also eagerly introduced me to many of his close friends (who happen to be serious A-list economists and money managers)… so needless to say, it has been an incredibly fun and enlightening couple of months.

But John introduced me to one man, in particular, who was able to pull back the curtain on the Chinese economy in a way I had not imagined… and it feels like I am looking at the Middle Kingdom with fresh eyes.
Meet Leland Miller, President of China Beige Book International. Along with Dr. Craig Charney, who oversees the firm’s vast research efforts, Leland spearheads the effort to supply the world’s elite institutions (from central banks and heads of state to multinationals, mega banks, and hedge funds) with a comprehensive look into China’s economy, by applying the same survey methodology employed by each of the regional U.S. Federal Reserve Banks in preparing their submissions for the national Beige Book. 

Aside from the fact that Leland is an Oxford-educated China historian, a brilliant economist, and a genuinely nice guy, what first caught my attention was his remarkable track record of contrarian calls since the inaugural issue of the China Beige Book in Q1 2012… from the initial slowdown; to unexpected bounces in economic activity; and even the June 2013 cash crunch where interbank interest rates spiked dramatically in a matter of weeks, signaling that a wave of defaults was on the way. (I should note that John has sat on China Beige Book International’s advisory board and has worked closely with Leland for most of the firm’s history.)
Before we proceed, here is a short but important description of the history and methodology behind the China Beige Book. Although survey data has its limits in any economy, this is as good as it gets for a semi-closed economy like China’s.

Beginning in early 2010, our team set out to craft a Chinese analogue of the US Federal Reserve’s Beige Book. Over the next twelve months, we conducted a study of the Beige Book and the methods used to prepare it, including contact with officials at each of the regional Federal Reserve Banks involved in its preparation. We then worked to develop a method that would be similar, but more comprehensive and systematic, in its approach to the world’s second largest economy – a Beige Book “with Chinese characteristics.”

Our approach triangulates three methods, repeated every quarter: a quantitative survey of over 2,000 leading firms from key sectors across the country; qualitative one-on-one in-depth discussions with C-Suite executives in the same industries across every region; and a separate, targeted banker survey of loan officers and branch managers, designed to home in on the complexities of both the official and shadow economies. With the data from this approach, we are able to compare regions and industries within a quarter, as well as track changes over time, both in near and real time.

The result of these efforts is the largest and most comprehensive survey series ever conducted on a closed or semi-closed economy…

I cannot share the report in its entirety or reveal too much of its contents, but Leland did give me permission to share part of the regional overviews and research highlights from the Q1 2014 report. If you are able and willing to pay the six figure annual subscription fee, Leland’s work will blow your mind and dramatically change your perspective. For the rest of us, the following excerpt can at least point us in the right direction… and I am discovering that Leland’s media interviews and tweets (@ChinaBeigeBook) are quite telling, as well. (You can also follow John and me on Twitter at @JohnFMauldin and @WorthWray, respectively.)

China Beige Book, Regional Overview (Excerpts from the Q1 2014 report)

China Beige Book regions [listed below]

Region 1: Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang

Growth slowed – retail & real estate gains weakening sharply – despite stability in manufacturing and pickups in services, transport, and agriculture. Borrowing was stable with rates down at banks and up at non-bank lenders. Hiring slowed, as did margin growth. On quarter weakness was modest, but the on-year drop was worrisome.

Region 2: Guangdong, Fujian

Despite the national slowdown, Guangdong’s pickup continued, driven by manufacturing and transport. Growth was steady in retail, off in services and property. Wage growth remained high but costs inflation eased, boosting margins. Borrowing ticked up, with bank rates steady and shadow rates up. The export power-house found an encouraging second wind.

Region 3: Beijing, Tianjin, Shandong, Hebei

The capital region saw Q1’s worst results, due to trouble in services and manufacturing. Property and mining were stable, retail slightly better. Margin growth suffered. Borrowing was stable and moved to banks, on the country’s lowest interest rates. Beijing is leading the national economic slowdown.

Region 4: Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning

The Northeast slowed as mining contracted and manufacturing, property, and farming growth eased. Services was stable and retail saw a pick-up. Hiring and wages strengthened, while pricing weakened, pressuring margins. Borrowing ticked up, rates easing. Rebalancing does not look easy in this old industrial region.

Region 5: Hubei, Henan, Chongqing, Sichuan, Anhui, Jiangxi

Growth slowed sharply, slipping in retail, services, property, farming, and mining, with only manufacturing stable. Hiring was steady but input costs grew faster, narrowing margin gains. Borrowing slid again, with lower interest rates in both formal and shadow finance – not an encouraging trend.

Region 6: Shaanxi, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia

Growth took a hit, gains slowing in this crucial mining sector. Manufacturing, real estate and, especially, retail weakened. Services and transport were the bright spots. Hiring and margin growth both eased. Borrowing was flat as rates went up. The North remains dependent on struggling mining.

Region 7: Guizhou, Guangxi, Yunnan, Hainan, Hunan

Again out of sync with the rest of China, the Southwest sped up. Manufacturing, transport, and mining improved, but retail, services, and real estate saw growth slow. Hiring and input costs picked up, but so did pricing and margins. Borrowing ticked up, as shadow lenders’ rates moved back above banks’ rates.

Region 8: Xinjiang, Tibet, Gansu, Qinghai

The West again boasted China’s best overall growth, though manufacturing, retail, and services slowed. Only property picked up, with mining and transport stable. Hiring and input cost growth were steady, but pricing and margin growth eased. Borrowing remained China’s least frequent as rates jumped.

China Beige Book, Research Highlights (Excerpts from the Q1 2014 report)

Manufacturing is fine, yet the economy is not

The pace of Chinese economic expansion has painfully slowed. Revenue, sales, profit, and wage growth are all weaker than a year ago. The slowdown is particularly steep in the North [region 6] and Northeast [region 4] and also pronounced in Beijing [region 3] and Central China (region 5).

By sector, stable first-quarter growth in manufacturing confirms our long-standing thesis that it is no longer the economy’s bellwether...

A bounce-back later this year is possible

The worst performer according to CBB figures, both on-quarter and on-year, is real estate and construction. While property companies are getting crushed, the sector is also notoriously unstable for both structural and political reasons. It would be no surprise if real estate were to rally before the end of the year.

More immediate reason for optimism: Growth in new domestic orders was solid (save in the Northeast), and domestic orders and export orders were both stronger in powerhouse Guangdong. The results do not indicate a boom later in 2014, but they do suggest that linear forecasts of continued deterioration are overly simplistic.

Financial segmentation is profound

The ongoing debates about monetary policy assume that anticipated loosening or tightening applies across the spectrum of borrowers. CBB data say otherwise, and in multiple ways. First, while the number of firms reporting that they borrowed stabilized in Q1, it did so at a very low level. Shoving more liquidity at the credit market will have limited effects until participation expands. This includes RRR cuts – though of course these may occur for political reasons.

Second, shadow finance may be revving up for a comeback. CBB numbers show a recovery in the sales of wealth management products (WMPs), likely due to competition from online banking. This is cash leaving the traditional banking sector and, while non-bank lending did not pick up in the first quarter, the groundwork is being laid for it to do so.

Online banking may be encouraging riskier behavior

Online lenders are typically viewed as a force for liberalization, as well as a potentially healthier alternative to unregulated shadow finance. Yet our data show their proliferation would impart significant costs as well…

What appears to be happening is the higher returns available in online banking are forcing banks to move more transactions off-balance sheet, in order to avoid the interest rate cap. While this may accommodate policy goals in the short term, an uptick in off-balance sheet funding portends more shadow bank lending down the line.

Interest rate spread between banks & shadow banks highest in a year

Bank loan rates and bond yields eased slightly this quarter, but the cost of capital increased again for those borrowing from non-bank lenders. While the shifts were not dramatic, the spread between bank and non-bank loan rates nationwide is now the largest since Q1 2013. This highlights the still more challenging road for those firms, principally domestic private entities that are pushed outside formal lending channels.

Growth Is Slowing But Not Collapsing (So Far…) 

After reading through the latest report, consulting with friends who are also familiar with the research, and bombarding Leland with a never-ending stream of questions for the last month, John and I still cannot claim to have enough information to make a directional call on the world’s most powerful (and least understood) macro force… but we know more about the inner workings of China’s economy than we did when we wrote to you a couple of months ago.

Great data often has that effect – it’s like shining a light into the shadows (including China’s shadow banks). We can see the nuanced regional contrast in economic activity, the modest (but still insufficient) rebalancing between sectors, and pressure points in the credit markets that suggest last summer’s interbank volatility may return in 2014.

We also see a far more mixed picture of economic activity than a lot of the widely followed headline data suggests. The overall pace of Chinese economic growth is clearly slowing but not collapsing. The credit transmission mechanism is obviously broken, as you can see in the chart below (with government and government-sponsored borrowers in zombie industries consuming the majority of the country’s credit… in turn forcing households to borrow through shadow banks at massive risk premiums); but so far, the credit bubble is not imploding.

On that note, China Beige Book International is the only independent research firm in the world that tracks the non-bank (shadow) lending rates not just nationally, or by region, but for every sector in every region over time. Leland and his team have essentially solved the most difficult China puzzle of all: what is true cost of capital in the Chinese economy, and who is able to actually access it?


Source: Wei Yao, “China: A whiff of debt deflation.” Societe Generale Research, May 9, 2014

Of course – and Leland was emphatic on this point – China’s greatest challenge will lie in deleveraging the economy while also rebalancing toward a consumption-driven growth model for the first time in modern history. That cannot happen as long as households remain repressed by unequal access to credit markets or intentionally suppressed exchange rates, which essentially represent a transfer of household wealth from workers to state-favored firms. But reforming the system will require a greater slowdown than China’s policymakers are letting on. And, Leland warns, Beijing runs the risk of blowing its credibility and instigating capital flight if the divergence between official forecasts and China’s actual economic experience grows too large.

To be continued next week 

Trequanda, Nantucket, New York, and Maine

It is very early Saturday morning here in Rome (still late Friday night in the US) as I finish this letter, or at least my part of it. Worth is still up and reworking this piece (I really can’t keep up with him); then the editors, Charley and Lisa Sweet, will do their final runs; and then a whole team will make sure you get your letter. A far cry from the early days when your humble analyst did everything. And the mistakes I made showed up in print far more often. I am grateful to have a whole group of dedicated people working to keep the machine humming.

In a few hours I will meet George Gilder at the train station. I will buy a few local phones (I already have local sim cards for the iPads from the airport yesterday), find some cash, and have lunch before we hop the train to Chiusi with my daughter Melissa and some friends and then meet Tiffani and Lively, who are already there with the cars. We’ll drive to Sinalunga to shop for groceries and other stuff for the week before going the last short leg to Trequanda.

Other guests will come and go over the next few weeks, using the villa as a base to explore the Tuscan region; but I will probably stay “home,” reading and thinking and working out, doing some preliminary writing on my next book, and trying to take the speed of life down a gear or two. Vacation for me is being in the same place for an extended period. And getting to talk with Gilder in the evenings about our books is such a treat. He is one of the finest philosophical/sociological/economic/technological minds in the world (in my opinion), and having him to talk with in the evening will help me lay the proper intellectual framework for my book, though I have to work on not distracting him too much.

Last night I had dinner arranged here in Rome with my friend Steve Cucchiaro, his daughter (who was celebrating her birthday), and his son. My group was running late, even though our driver from the airport was driving like we were in a Formula One race. That is typical, but it was not long before we realized he was also drunk and half mad, talking and gesturing to himself the entire time. Obviously, we survived. When we got to our hotel, I was busy getting people to get ready ASAP so we would not be too late. I asked the concierge for directions, and he gave them to me but then said, “Signor Mauldin, you cannot wear that to the Imago restaurant. It is a very nice place.” I pointed out that I had not brought a tie, and he offered me one. So I went to the room and called Steve to tell him we would be a little late. He said jackets were required but no ties.

It turned out he had booked one of the finest places in Rome and got the corner window table overlooking the Spanish Steps and St. Peter’s, with a spectacular sunset/nighttime view. Another special night for the memory book.

It is time to hit the send button, as trains will not wait. I will report from Tuscany next week, by which time Worth and I should have China all figured out – not! But we’ll keep after it. Also, I hope to summarize the speech I did in San Diego. Until then have a great week!

Your thinking I need to get to China analyst,

John Mauldin, 

The article Thoughts from the Frontline: Looking at the Middle Kingdom with Fresh Eyes was originally published at Mauldin Economics

Get our "Beginner's Guide to Trading Options"....Just Click Here!

EIA: Mexico's Energy Ministry Projects Rapid Near Term Growth of Natural Gas Imports from U.S.

 A combination of higher natural gas demand from Mexico's industrial and electric power sectors and increased U.S. natural gas production has resulted in a doubling of U.S. pipeline exports of natural gas to Mexico between 2009 and 2013. Mexico's national energy ministry, SENER, projects that U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico will reach 3.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2018. This would be more than double U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico in 2013, which averaged 1.8 Bcf/d. This projected growth is driven mainly by higher demand from Mexico's electric power sector in both the north and interior of the country.



Nearly three quarters of the projected growth in Mexico's natural gas consumption between 2012 and 2027 is projected to occur in the electric power sector (see graph). This growth is largely driven by private and independently operated power plants, whose natural gas consumption is expected to rise at a 7.9% average annual rate, from 1.6 Bcf/d in 2012 to 4.9 Bcf/d in 2027. By contrast, natural gas consumption from plants operated by national energy company CFE grows at just 0.4% per year, from 1.1 Bcf/d in 2012 to 1.2 Bcf/d in 2027. The growth comes largely from new combined cycle plants, which benefit from greater operational efficiencies and lower emission levels compared to other generation sources. Growth sharply accelerates over the near term but continues through 2027, when power sector consumption reaches 58% of total gas consumption, compared to 47% in 2012.

Mexico's projected growth in natural gas consumption occurs in each of its five market regions: Northeast, Northwest, Interior-West, Interior, and South-Southeast. According to SENER, demand growth is particularly strong in the northern and interior regions of the country.



All natural gas pipeline imports from the United States into Mexico enter the country's Northeast and Northwest regions. Some of these imports enter the country as logistical imports on pipelines owned by private entities, as well as by Pemex's natural gas subsidiary PGPB. The term logistical imports refers to imports that arrive in areas with no other form of access to natural gas. The largest growth in projected pipeline imports takes place from nonlogistical imports on PGPB owned pipelines in the Northeast. An increasing portion of this gas flows through the Northeast south to the interior regions, but much of it also serves increased consumption from the Northeast's industrial and electric generation facilities. Higher natural gas pipeline imports from the United States into the Northeast region meet both higher demand from consumers there and the increased pipeline flows from the Northeast to regions further south.

About three quarters of Mexico's natural gas production comes from associated gas that is produced at Pemex's offshore oil platforms in the South-Southeast region. Natural gas production in the South-Southeast is expected to grow by only 0.4% per year through 2019. Pemex consumes increasing amounts of this production in the near term for its exploration, production, and refining activities. With stagnant growth in the production of associated gas in the South-Southeast and limited capacity for future growth in LNG imports, pipeline imports from the United States become the primary means for Mexico to satisfy national demand growth.

SENER has previously made projections that assumed more robust investment in the development of new gas fields, and a more aggressive and diverse range of well productivity rates. SENER's high natural gas production growth projections included the undertaking of an initiative to enhance recovery rates in the South-Southeast of both gas and oil extracted from offshore fields in the Yucatan Peninsula, as well as development in the Northeast of the Sabinas Basin's La Casita shale gas play and Mexico's portion of the Eagle Ford shale play.

However, there are significant factors that could inhibit the development of shale gas and other basins in Mexico, including the geologic complexity and discontinuity of its shale gas areas, the availability of required technology and water resources, security concerns, and a focus on development of crude oil resources. Even if additional development did occur, Mexico's northern regions would likely still see high growth in pipeline imports from the United States, particularly in areas that lack pipeline connectivity to other parts of the country.

Get our "Beginner's Guide to Trading Options"....Just Click Here!

Encore Presentation....."The Insiders Guide to Growing a Small Trading Account into a Big Account"

Thanks for all the positive feedback on John Carters webinar “The Insider’s Guide to Growing a Small Trading Account into a Big Account”. Many of you have requested an encore presentation. So we are happy to say that we’ll be hosting a "live" encore webinar on this Tuesday June 3rd

You can attend at either 1:00 pm or 8:00 pm New York time. Both webinars will be live encore presentations.

Just Click Here to Register

One of the reasons we are doing this is that it turns out that a lot of traders were shut out of last week’s webinar because we were over capacity. We apologize to all that were and hope you get a seat for this week. Make sure you log on 10 minutes early to claim your seat.

So join us for a live encore presentation on Tuesday.

Click Here to Choose the 1 p.m. Webinar

Click Here to Choose the 8 p.m. Webinar

See you on Tuesday!
Ray @ The Crude Oil Trader


Get ready for this weeks webinar by watching John's video primer "The Big Trade"

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery - Crude Oil, SP 500, Gold and Coffee

We've ask our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets......

Crude oil futures in the July contract finished the week down about $1.50 closing around 102.70 a barrel after hitting 1 year highs earlier in the week. The crude oil market is trading above its 20 & 100 day moving average continuing its bullish trend in recent months as economies around the world are improving as well as the U.S stock market hitting new all time highs on a daily basis helping support crude oil prices. We have entered the strong demand season for unleaded gasoline as there will be a lot of drivers on the road increasing demand which could propel prices back up to last August highs of around 112 a barrel. If you are looking to take advantage of this recent dip in crude oil prices I would remain a buyer as long as prices stay above the 10 day low of 101 a barrel which is about $1.75 away or $900 risk per contract.

Don't miss this weeks webinar "The Insiders Guide to the Big Trade"

The S&P 500 hit all time highs once again along with the transports this week as the Vix or fear index is at a 7 year low as the S&P 500 traded up another 20 points this week at 1917 as Apple Computer was also up $20 this week currently trading at 635 a share which is propelling the rest of the equity markets higher as the trend seems to be getting stronger and stronger and I’m still recommending a long position in this market .The S&P 500 is trading far above its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is higher and with the 10 year note trading at 2.45% which is also propelling stock prices higher as companies are able to borrow large amounts of money at practically nothing while increasing dividends while also buying back their shares decreasing their float therefore increasing earnings per share. I love this market to the upside for one reason because the market has very little volatility and continues to grind higher with solid chart structure to continue to play this to the upside.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Gold futures in the August contract finished down for the 5th straight trading session finishing lower by 45 dollars this week at 1,245 an ounce continuing its bearish trend trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average as I remain bearish gold prices as I think there’s a high probability of a retest of 1,200 and if that level is broken look at a re test near the contract low of 1,180 as prices look very bearish in my opinion. You have to ask yourself at this time would you rather own gold or stocks as investors are choosing to sell their gold and are buying stocks and it seems like on a daily basis. The problem with gold right now is everybody’s buying the S&P 500 which hit another all time high today as there is a very little interest in purchasing gold at the current time especially with bond yields continuing to move lower as the money is going into bonds and stocks and out of gold. Gold futures are still higher by about $60 in the year 2014 but traded as high as 1,390 earlier in the year and has given back much of this year’s gains that it had and I do think the trend continues to the downside and if you took my original recommendation place your stop above the 10 day high minimizing risk in case the trend does change. Gold is famous for having large washout days meaning it will sell off $50 in one day and volatility will spike as I said in yesterday’s blog & I sense one of those days is coming as the trend seems to be getting stronger.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Coffee futures in New York are sharply lower this Friday afternoon trading down 445 points at 177.50 a pound trading down for the week continuing its short term down trend as prices spiked to a low of 170.80 on Tuesday as I have been recommending a long position in this market between 165 – 170 so currently I’m still sitting on the sidelines waiting for the opportunity to arrive. A large coffee exporter named Ipanema Coffee is suggesting that yields could drop by as much as 40% as there are small beans in the cherries which could spike up prices if they are correct on their assessment as the numbers will be coming in the next couple of weeks as in the beginning of the season we were expecting 53 million bags then down to 43 million bags due to the severe drought and anything lower than 43 million bags would be bullish this market and I do expect volatility to rise here in the next couple of weeks. Prices have been going sideways to lower in the last couple of weeks because of the fact that we have very little fresh fundamental news on crop size but that will change quickly so continue to look to be a buyer at 165 – 170 level as you will never pick a bottom in coffee but I do not think prices are headed back down 140 as this whole rally started at 125 as there was significant damage done as I talked to many producers down in Brazil and this was no joke as this was one of the worst droughts in history. Coffee prices are trading below their 20 day moving average in the right near their 100 day moving average which has not happened in more than 4 months telling you that the trend is mixed at the current time as I’m laying in the weeds waiting for an entry.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Get more of Mikes calls on orange juice, soybeans, cotton, corn, wheat, hogs and cattle....Just Click Here!


Sign up for one of our Free Trading Webinars....Just Click Here!

The Colder War and the End of the Petrodollar

By Marin Katusa, Chief Energy Investment Strategist

The mainstream media are falling over themselves talking about Russia’s just-signed “Holy Grail” gas deal with China, which is expected to be worth more than $400 billion. But here’s what I think the real news is… and nobody’s talking about it—until now, that is. China’s President Xi Jinping has publicly stated that it’s time for a new model of security, not just for China, but for all of Asia. This new model of security, otherwise known as “the new UN,” will include Russia and Iran, but not the United States or the EU-28.

Don't miss this weeks webinar "The Insiders Guide to the Big Trade"

This monumental gas deal with China does so much more for Russia than the Western media are reporting. First off, it opens up Russian oil and gas supplies to all of Asia. It’s no coincidence that Russian President Putin announced the gas deal with China at a time when the tensions with the West over Ukraine were growing. Putin has U.S. President Obama exactly where he wants him, and it’s only going to get worse for Europe and America. But before I explain why that is, let’s put this deal in terms we can understand. The specific details have not been announced, but my sources tell me that the contract will bring in over U.S. $10 billion a year of revenue to start with.

The 30 year deal states that every year, the Russians will deliver 1.3 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas to China. The total capital expenditure to build the pipeline and all other infrastructure for the project will be more than $22 billion—this will be one of the largest projects in the world. You can bet the Russians won’t take payment in US dollars for their gas. This is the beginning of the end for the petrodollar.

The Chinese and Russians are working together against the Americans, and there are many countries that would be happy to join them in dethroning the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency. This historic gas deal between Russia and China is very bad news for the petrodollar. Through this one deal, the Russians will provide about 25% of China’s current natural gas demand. In a word, this is huge. It’s also not a coincidence that Putin sealed the deal with China before the Australian, US, and Canadian liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals are completed. If you read our recent Casey Energy Report issue on LNG, you know to be wary of the hype about LNG’s “bright future.” Take note: this deal is a serious negative for the global LNG projects.

I also stated in our April 2012 newsletter:

Putin has positioned Russia to play an increasingly dominant role in the global gas scene with two general strategies: first, by building new pipelines to avoid transiting troublesome countries and to develop Russia’s ability to sell gas to Asia, and second, by jumping into the liquefied natural gas (LNG) scene with new facilities in the Far East.

Pretty bang on for a comment that was made over two years ago in print, don’t you think?

So, what’s next? Lots. Putin will continue to outsmart Obama. (Note to all Americans: the Russians make fun of you—not just for your poor choice of presidents, but also for your failed foreign policy that has led to most of the world hating America. But I digress.) You will see Russia announce a major nuclear deal with Iran, where the Russians will build, finance, and supply the uranium for many nuclear reactors. The Russians will do the same for China, and then Syria. With China signing the natural gas deal with Russia and the president of China publicly stating that it’s time to create a new security model for the Asian nations that includes Russia and Iran, it’s clear China has chosen Russia over the U.S.

We are now in the early stages of the Colder War.

The European Union will be the first victim. The EU is completely dependent on Russia for its oil and natural gas imports—over one-third of the EU-28’s supply of oil and natural gas comes from Russia. I’ve been writing for years about this, and I’m watching it come true right now: the only way out for the EU countries is to use modern North American technology to revitalize their old proven oil and gas deposits.

I call it the European Energy Renaissance, and there’s a fortune to be made from it. Our Casey Energy Report portfolio has already been doing quite well from investing in the European Energy Renaissance, but this is only the beginning. If Europe is to survive the Colder War, it has no choice but to develop its own natural resources. There are naysayers who claim that Europe cannot and will not do that, for many reasons. I say rubbish.

Of course, to make money from this European dilemma, it’s imperative to only invest in the best management teams, operating in those countries with the political will to do what it takes to survive… but if you do, you could make a fortune. Doug Casey and I plan on doing so, and so should you.

For example, two weeks ago in this missive, I discussed “The Most Anticipated Oil Well of 2014,” where if you invested, in just two weeks you could be up over 40%. Not only did I write in great detail about the company, I even interviewed the CEO because of the serious potential this high-risk junior holds. I said in that Dispatch that the quality of the recorded interview wasn’t first class, but the quality of information was. The company just put together a very high-quality, professional video showing its potential, and I include it here for all to watch.

Since my write-up, the company has announced incredible news. It’s only months away now from knowing whether or not it has made a world-class discovery. Subscribers to the Casey Energy Report are already sitting on some good, short-term profits with this story, but it keeps getting better.

The more the tension is building in Ukraine (and it’s going to get worse), the more money we’re going to make from the Colder War. There’s nothing you can do about the current geopolitical situation, but you can position yourself and your family to benefit financially from the European Energy Renaissance.

Now You Can Take the Lead… We Make It Simple

We expect great things from this company and other companies that are exposed to the European Energy Renaissance. You can read our ongoing guidance on this and our other top energy stocks every month in the Casey Energy Report. In the current issue, for example, you’ll find an in-depth report on the coal sector, uranium, and updates on all of our portfolio companies that are poised to benefit most from the European Energy Renaissance.

There’s no risk in trying it: If you don’t like the Casey Energy Report or don’t make any money within your first three months, just cancel within that time for a full, prompt refund. Even if you miss the cutoff, you can cancel anytime for a prorated refund on the unused part of your subscription.

You don’t have to travel 300+ days a year to discover the best energy investments in the world—we do it for you. Click Here to Get Started.

The article The Colder War and the End of the Petrodollar was originally published at Casey Research

Get our "Beginner's Guide to Trading Options"....Just Click Here!

 

You Can’t Shoot Fish in a Barrel Without Ammunition

By Dan Steinhart, Managing Editor, The Casey Report

"FOMO"


I heard this acronym on a podcast last week. Having no clue what it meant, I consulted Google. Turns out it stands for “Fear of Missing Out.” Kids use it to describe their anxiety about missing a social event that all of their friends are attending. It struck me that investors experience FOMO too. And it usually leads to bad decisions.

From Prudent to FOMO

 

In the comfort of your home office, investing rationally is pretty easy. You think a bull market might be emerging, so you invest in the S&P 500.

But you’re not stupid. No one really knows where the stock market is headed, so you keep a healthy allocation of cash on the side to deploy the next time stocks trade at bargain prices. A prudent, rational plan.
But leave the house and things start to change. You notice that others seem to be making more money than you. First it’s the “smart money” raking in the dough—those who had the foresight and fortitude to buy during the last panic, when everyone else was retreating. You’re OK with that. Investing is their full-time job.

You can’t expect to compete with them.

But as the bull market charges higher, the caliber of people making more money than you sinks lower. The mailman starts giving you stock tips. And your gardener’s brand new Mustang, parked in your driveway just behind your sensible, 2011 Toyota Corolla, starts to irritate you.

Your brother-in-law is the last straw. He thinks he’s so smart, but he’s really just lucky to somehow always be in the right place at the right time. I mean, just last month you had to pick him up from a NASCAR tailgate after security kicked him out for lewd behavior—and now he’s taking the family to Europe with his stock market winnings?

If that guy can make $30,000 in the market in six months, you should be a millionaire. Now you feel like a sucker for holding so much cash. Why earn a pitiful 0.5% interest when you could be making… hang on, how much did the S&P 500 gain last year? 29.6%? Some quick extrapolation shows that if you invest all of your cash right now, you can retire by 2023. Factor in a couple family trips to Europe, and we’ll call it 2024 to be safe.

Cash Is Trash… Until It’s King

 

Such is the (slightly exaggerated) psychology of a bull market. FOMO is a powerful motivator and causes smart investors to do stupid things, like go all-in at the worst possible moment. Which is no small concern, since it undermines one of the most powerful investment strategies: keeping liquid cash in reserve to invest during market panics.

Take the roaring ‘20s as a long ago but pertinent example. The surging stock market of that era caused a whole lot of FOMO. Seeing their friends get rich, people who had never invested before piled into stocks.
Of course, we know how that ended. But there’s a fascinating angle that you may not have given much thought. I hadn’t until yesterday, when I finished reading The Great Depression: A Diary [click here to purchase on Amazon.com]. It’s a firsthand, anecdotal account written by attorney Benjamin Roth.

Roth emphasized that during the Great Depression, everyone knew financial assets were great bargains. The problem was hardly anyone had cash to take advantage of them.

Here are a few quotes from the book:

August 1931: I see now how very important it is for the professional man to build up a surplus in normal times. A surplus capital of $2,500 wisely invested during the depression might have meant financial security for the rest of his life. Without it he is at the mercy of the economic winds.

December 1931: It is generally believed that good stocks and bonds can now be bought at very attractive prices. The difficulty is that nobody has the cash to buy.

September 1932: I believe it can be truly said that the man who has money during this depression to invest in the highest grade investment stocks and can hold on for 2 or 3 years will be the rich man of 1935.

June 1933: I am afraid the opportunity to buy a fortune in stocks at about 10¢ on the dollar is past and so far I have been unable to take advantage of it.

July 1933: Again and again during this depression it is driven home to me that opportunity is a stern goddess who passes up those who are unprepared with liquid capital.

May 1937: The greatest chance in a lifetime to build a fortune has gone and will probably not come again soon. Very few people had any surplus to invest—it was a matter of earning enough to buy the necessaries of life.

In short, by succumbing to FOMO and investing all your cash, you might be giving up the opportunity to make a literal fortune. You can’t shoot fish in a barrel without ammunition.

Of course, the parallels from the Great Depression to present day crises aren’t exact. The U.S. was on the gold standard back then, meaning the Fed couldn’t conjure money out of thin air to reflate stock prices. Such a nationwide shortage of cash is unthinkable today, as Yellen & Friends would create however many dollars necessary to prevent stocks from plummeting 90%, as they did during the Great Depression.

That’s exactly what happened during the 2008 financial crisis, as you can see below. The Fed injected liquidity, and stocks rebounded rapidly. Compared to the Great Depression, the stock market crash of 2008 was short and sweet:

What does that mean for modern investors?

When the next crisis comes—and it will—there will be bargains. But because of the Fed’s quick trigger, investors will have to act decisively to get a piece of them.

What’s more, now that the US government has demonstrated beyond the shadow of a doubt that it will prop up the economy, bargains should dissipate even quicker next time around. After all, the hardest part of buying stocks in a crisis is overcoming fear. But that fear isn’t much of a detriment when Uncle Sam is standing by with his hand on the lever of the money-printing machine, ready to rescue the market.

Crises can creep up on you faster than you think. You may never know what hit you--unless you knew what to look for ahead of time. Watch Meltdown America, the eye opening 30-minute documentary on how to recognize (and survive) an economic crisis—with top experts including Sovereign Society Director Jeff Opdyke, investing legend Doug Casey, and Canadian National Security Council member Dr. Andre Gerolymatos.

Be prepared… it can (and will) happen here. Click here to watch Meltdown America now.

The article You Can’t Shoot Fish in a Barrel Without Ammunition was originally published at Casey Research.

Get our "Beginner's Guide to Trading Options"....Just Click Here!

Free trading webinar: The Insiders Guide to Growing a Small Account into a Big Account

Growing your account is not as hard as you think. And it won't take you decades to grow it if you do it the RIGHT (and safe) way. Let John Carter show you how he does it and how you can do it too.

Just click here to grab a seat to this Tuesdays [June 3rd] FREE webinar

He's pulling back the cloak on how he personally grows his accounts with super low risk, and max gains and control. He'll show you........

   *   His favorite low risk strategy to grow his account

   *  What stops to use and WHEN

   *  How to control risk without being timid

   *  How to secure your financial future.

   *  And a lot more...plus he'll be taking question

Seats are limited for this 'Insider Meeting', so get your name on the list TODAY:

Just Click Here to Reserve Your Seat to John's Meeting 

See you Tuesday!
Ray @ The Crude Oil Trader

Weekly futures recap with Mike Seery for week ending May 23rd

We've asked our trading partner Mike Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the commodity futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets......

Crude oil futures in the July contract rallied another $.70 this Friday afternoon trading at 104.45 a barrel hitting new 1 year highs as the trend continues to move to the upside at least here in the short term. The true breakout was when prices broke above 103 in Wednesday’s trade as I would place my stop loss at the 10 day low which is around 98 risking $5 or $5,000 per contract as the chart structure will improve over the next several days as there is strong demand going into the Memorial Day weekend for energy products. Crude oil futures rose almost $3 this week as prices look to head up to the next resistance level of 106 and if that level is broken I think we can retest the 110 level which was hit last August when we had the Syrian conflict and then prices dropped very quickly however this market is quite different as prices are rising due to demand and improving economies around the world as the U.S stock market hit all time highs once again today and with extremely low interest rates looking to stay for many years to come that recipe is very bullish crude oil and all other commodity and equity assets. If you look at this market on a seasonality basis prices generally tend to rise in the months of June, July and August as drivers are hitting the road and it looks like that same trend is already beginning so continue to play this market to the upside and if you currently have missed the recent rally look for a dip to enter.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Don't miss this weeks free webinar "The Insiders Guide to Growing a Small Account into a BIG Account".....Just click here!

Gold futures in the June contract basically traded unchanged for the trading week with very little volatility as this market has gone sideways over the last 7 weeks and is looking to breakout soon in my opinion. If you look at the daily chart we are starting to form a tight wedge and I do think if prices break the critical level of 1,265 the bear market will continue however if prices break out above 1,310 a bottom might be in place and time will only tell so at this point I’m sitting on the sidelines as there is no trend in this market, however this is starting to become an interesting chart, so keep a close eye on those 2 price levels as the longer we consolidate the more powerful the breakout becomes. Gold futures are trading just an eyelash below their 20 and 100 day moving average as volatility is extremely low at the current time so if you’re bullish this market I would look at bull call option spreads because the premiums are relatively cheap and if you’re bearish this market I would look at bear put spreads limiting your risk to what the premium costs as gold certainly will become extremely volatile once again it’s just a matter of time.
TREND: SIDEWAYS
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Coffee futures in the July contract are up 55 points this afternoon in New York currently trading at 182 a pound still trading below its 20 day but above its 100 day moving average settling last Friday at 185 as prices are still near 5 week lows. I’m recommending buying the coffee market if you’re lucky enough to get in at the 170 – 175 level as I do think crop estimates which should be coming out in the next couple weeks will show a worse production than anticipated sending prices higher and volatility higher as coffee can have tremendous price swings. The drought in central Brazil was very severe and I don’t think prices can head back down to the 140 level so if your trading a large enough account keep a very close eye on this market because the risk reward is always in your favor if you use a proper money management technique so look to be a buyer if prices should tumble into the low 170s.
TREND: SIDEWAYS
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Get more of Mikes calls on cotton, cocoa, silver, orange juice and more......Just click here!

How to Grow a Small Trading Account into a BIG One

He's back! Our friend and trading partner John Carter of Simpler Options is back to answer the number one question he gets at the Simpler Options phone bank...."how can I trade using a small trading account"?

As you have probably already learned [like all of us] trading fees quickly erode our trading accounts even when we have some success when using a small account. Today John shows us how to put that all behind us.

Growth is on our minds, and I'm sure it's on yours.....so watch this free video from the industries leading educator and start growing and protecting your account today.

How to Grow a Small Account into a BIG One

Here's what you'll learn from John......

   *   The difference between trading for income vs. growth and what no one else will tell you about this

   *   The # 1 job of every trader has to accomplish or look for a new job

   *   Why you don’t want to focus on being right in trading and yes this is counter intuitive

   *   Examples of my favorite trades for growing a small account

   *   Position sizing appropriately for a small account and the types of stocks and ETFs to trade

John shows us all of his trades in his real 5K account that he'll be growing right before our eyes. And John explains in detail every method he uses to make it all happen.

Watch the video here...and thank me later

See you in the markets,
Ray @ The Crude Oil Trader

P.S.  please feel free to leave a comment after watching the video, we want to hear your take on what John is doing.