Our trading partner Chris Vermeulen just shared with us his take on what most traders are missing when it comes to market rotation. It's a great reminder of what so many of us did so wrong not to long ago. Let's play this different this time.
If you remember the dot com bubble as clearly as I do and are a technical analyst then you will recall the month which the NASDAQ broke down and confirmed a new bear market has started. The date was November of 2000.
You may be wondering why I bring this up. What do tech stocks have to do with commodities?
Good question because they have nothing in common. But the key here is that when a bull market ends in one asset class that money is shifted into another. That money moved into commodities and resource stocks and in a big way. Precious metals and miners exploded, surging an average of 1000% return (10 times ROI) over the next six years, topping out in 2008. In fact, these resource stocks bottom the exact month which the NASDAQ confirmed it was in a bear market on Nov 2000.
Compare Dot-Com Bubble & Burst to Precious Metals Stocks
Over the next couple of weeks, I will be sharing some of my top stock picks in the metals sector (gold, silver, nickel, and copper). If you missed the 2001 and 2008 metals bull market then you best pay attention and be sure you don’t miss what is about to happen.
Read Chris' entire post and chart work here > Time to Move Capital into Next Bull Market – Part I
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Trade ideas, analysis and low risk set ups for commodities, Bitcoin, gold, silver, coffee, the indexes, options and your retirement. We'll help you keep your emotions out of your trading.
Tuesday, June 9, 2015
Time to Move Capital into Next Bull Market – Part I
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Monday, June 8, 2015
Cleaning Out the Attic
By John Mauldin
Three weeks ago I co-authored an op-ed for the Investor’s Business Daily with Stephen Moore, founder of the Club for Growth and former Wall Street Journal editorial board member, currently working with the Heritage Foundation. Our goal was to present a simple outline of the policies we need to pursue as a country in order to get us back to 3–4% annual GDP growth. As we note in the op-ed, Stephen and I have been engaging with a number of presidential candidates and with other economists around the topic of growth.
We spent a great deal of time going back and forth on a variety of topics, trying to get down to a few ideas that we think make the most sense. I should note that few people will read the piece below without being upset by at least one of our suggestions. The goal was to not just list the standard Republican “fixes” but to actually come up with a plan that might garner support across the political spectrum on ways to address the critical problem of how to get the country back to acceptable growth.
Part of the challenge was reducing what could have been a book to just 800 words. Today’s letter will start with the actual op-ed, and then I will expand on some of the points. Readers and friends have been pressing me to offer some ideas as to what policies I think we should pursue, so here they are. I hope the op-ed will create some thoughtful response. It would be nice if we could get a few candidates to embrace some or all of what we are suggesting, even (or maybe especially) some of the more radical parts.
(I have made a few very minor edits to the op-ed.)
By John Mauldin and Stephen Moore
The dismal news of 0.2% GDP growth for the first quarter only confirmed that the US is in the midst of its slowest recovery in half a century from an economic crisis. Could it be that at least some of the rage we've seen in the streets of Baltimore is a result of a paltry recovery that hasn't benefited low-income inner-city areas? We are at least $1.5 trillion a year behind where we would be with even an average post-World War II recovery.
While many blame a lack of sufficient demand and even insufficient government spending, our view is that the primary factors behind the growth slowdown are an increasingly intrusive regulatory environment, a confusing and punitive tax scheme, and lack of certainty over healthcare costs.
Each of these factors has contributed to a climate where growth is slow and incomes are stagnant. These are problems that cannot be solved by monetary and fiscal policy alone. To get real growth and increased productivity, we need to deal with the real source of economic progress: the incentive structure. The coming presidential race offers an opportunity for candidates to put forth concrete and comprehensive ideas about what can be done to create higher economic growth – as opposed to platitudes and piecemeal ideas that don't address the entire problem. The two of us have met with several candidates and discussed tax reform and other economic growth issues.
We offer here some solutions of our own for them to consider.
1. Streamline the federal bureaucracy.
Government has become much like the neighbor who has hoarded every magazine and odd knick knack for 50 years. The attic and every room are stuffed with items no one would miss. The size of the US code has multiplied by over 18 times in 65 years. There are more than 1 million restrictive regulations. Enough already. It's time to clean out the attic. The president, with some flexibility, should require each agency to reduce the number of regulations under its purview by 20%, at the rate of 5% a year. And then Congress should pass a sunset law for the remaining regulations, requiring them to be reviewed at some point in order to be maintained. Further, if new rules are needed, then remove some old ones. Stop the growth of the federal regulatory code. We have enough rules today; let's just make sure they're the right ones.
2. Simplify and flatten the income tax.
Make the individual income rate 20% (at most) for all income over $50,000, with no deductions for anything. Reduce the corporate tax to 15%, again eliminating all deductions other than what is allowed by standard accounting practice. No perks, no special benefits. Further, tax foreign corporate income at 5%–10%, and let companies bring it back home to invest here. This strategy will actually increase tax revenues.
3. Replace the payroll tax with a business transfer tax of 15%
which will give lower income workers a big raise. Companies would pay tax on their gross receipts, minus allowable expenses in the conduct of producing goods and services. Nearly every economist agrees that consumption taxes are better than income taxes. Further, this tax can be rebated at the border, so it should encourage domestic production and be popular with union workers since it makes US products more competitive internationally.
The article Thoughts from the Frontline: Cleaning Out the Attic was originally published at mauldineconomics.com.
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Friday, June 5, 2015
A Rare Breed....Commodity Bull, Equity Bear
Senior Analyst Phil Flynn talks bullish commodity and bearish equity perspectives with Steve Meyers, Florida Branch Manager of The PRICE Futures Group.
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Saturday, May 30, 2015
Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Silver and Coffee Markets Recap with Mike Seery
Our trading partner Mike Seery is back this week to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.
Crude oil futures exploded this Friday afternoon in New York trading higher by $2.60 a barrel currently at 60.26 reversing recent losses as yesterday prices hit a 6 week low and traded down to $56.51 rallying $5 since as there are rumors of facilities being shut down due to the Texas and Oklahoma floods but time will tell to see if that’s actually true.
Crude oil futures are now trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average showing high volatility as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices hit a four week low around the $58 level and if you took that trade we are underwater currently so place your stop loss above the 10 day high which remains at 61.75 risking around $1.50 or $750 per mini contract plus slippage and commission from today’s price level.
This is a perfect example of why I use my 2% rule of risk on any given trade because anything can happen on any given day as I did not expect oil prices to trade nearly $3 higher today and this trade has been a loser as the risk was $1,800 or approximately 2% of a 100,000 account balance as you must admit you are wrong sometimes but we are still in this trade and not stopped out yet as Monday could be a different story.
Today’s action in my opinion was massive short covering as prices remained weak before today but we will see if there’s any follow through in Monday’s trade and if you did not take this trade the risk/reward is your favor at the current time so take advantage of price spikes while maintaining the proper stop loss.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Improving
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Gold futures in the August contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside after settling last Friday at 1,205 an ounce currently trading at 1,190 down about $15 this week in a very nonvolatile manner as prices are still trading in a 9 week consolidation. The true breakout to the downside is around the 1,170 level as the U.S dollar remains strong continuing to put pressure on gold in the short term, however the chart structure is poor at the current time but that will improve in next week’s trade as a possible short could be in the cards.
As I talked about in many previous blogs I don’t see any reason to own gold at the current time as the stock market despite today’s selloff still remains very strong and the trend in the U.S dollar remains in a secular bullish trend so be patient and wait for a breakout to occur. I have a theory that states the longer the consolidation more powerful the breakout as the breakout is below 1,170 then I would suggest selling a futures contract placing your stop loss above the 10 day high which could happen in next week’s trade as investors are waiting for the U.S monthly unemployment report which comes out next Friday and certainly should send high volatility and price direction back into this market.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor
Silver futures in the July contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed after settling last Friday at 17.05 while currently trading at 16.70 an ounce down about $.35 for the trading week hitting a two week low. Silver prices broke out two weeks ago and traded as high as 17.75 hitting a 3 month high, however I did not give any trade recommendation because the chart structure was so poor and the risk was way too high to enter so I’m still sitting on the sidelines at the current time.
The U.S dollar has regained its bullish momentum which is putting pressure on silver prices as the trend is mixed at the current time and I don’t like trading choppy markets as its extremely difficult to trade successfully in my opinion as lower prices look to be ahead in my opinion but I’m not recommending any type of position currently.
Volatility in silver at the current time is relatively mild as silver historically speaking is one of the most volatile commodities as something sure will develop in the coming weeks ahead so keep an eye on this market and wait for a better chart structure to develop lowering monetary risk as that’s the main key to successful trading in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor
Coffee futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 127 while currently trading at 125 a pound down about 200 points for the trading week as I’m sitting on the sidelines in this market and certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as the trend is to the downside but the chart structure is poor as the 10 day high is too far away & does not meet my criteria to enter into a new trade.
Production estimates in Brazil are expected to be very large and that’s what pushing prices lower as the Brazilian Real remains extremely weak against the U.S dollar which is negative anything that’s grown in the country of Brazil as volatility has slowed down this Memorial shortened holiday trading week but look at other markets with better chart structure.
Coffee prices are trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average as I do think there’s a possibility that prices could trade down to the 105 level over the next 4 to 6 weeks as there’s very little bullish fundamental news to dictate prices to the upside in my opinion except possible short covering at this time.
Many of the soft commodities have been going lower including sugar, orange juice, and coffee in recent weeks as global supplies are just very large and that’s what continuing to pressure prices as I don’t see that situation changing anytime soon or at least until the next growing season.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor
Get more of Mike's calls for this week on Corn, Oats, Sugar, Live Cattle and more....Here's this weeks entire article.
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Crude oil futures exploded this Friday afternoon in New York trading higher by $2.60 a barrel currently at 60.26 reversing recent losses as yesterday prices hit a 6 week low and traded down to $56.51 rallying $5 since as there are rumors of facilities being shut down due to the Texas and Oklahoma floods but time will tell to see if that’s actually true.
Crude oil futures are now trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average showing high volatility as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices hit a four week low around the $58 level and if you took that trade we are underwater currently so place your stop loss above the 10 day high which remains at 61.75 risking around $1.50 or $750 per mini contract plus slippage and commission from today’s price level.
This is a perfect example of why I use my 2% rule of risk on any given trade because anything can happen on any given day as I did not expect oil prices to trade nearly $3 higher today and this trade has been a loser as the risk was $1,800 or approximately 2% of a 100,000 account balance as you must admit you are wrong sometimes but we are still in this trade and not stopped out yet as Monday could be a different story.
Today’s action in my opinion was massive short covering as prices remained weak before today but we will see if there’s any follow through in Monday’s trade and if you did not take this trade the risk/reward is your favor at the current time so take advantage of price spikes while maintaining the proper stop loss.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Improving
Our free webinar replay "The 5 Step Checklist You Can Use to Find the Next Hedge Fund Darlings "....Just Click Here to Watch!
Gold futures in the August contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside after settling last Friday at 1,205 an ounce currently trading at 1,190 down about $15 this week in a very nonvolatile manner as prices are still trading in a 9 week consolidation. The true breakout to the downside is around the 1,170 level as the U.S dollar remains strong continuing to put pressure on gold in the short term, however the chart structure is poor at the current time but that will improve in next week’s trade as a possible short could be in the cards.
As I talked about in many previous blogs I don’t see any reason to own gold at the current time as the stock market despite today’s selloff still remains very strong and the trend in the U.S dollar remains in a secular bullish trend so be patient and wait for a breakout to occur. I have a theory that states the longer the consolidation more powerful the breakout as the breakout is below 1,170 then I would suggest selling a futures contract placing your stop loss above the 10 day high which could happen in next week’s trade as investors are waiting for the U.S monthly unemployment report which comes out next Friday and certainly should send high volatility and price direction back into this market.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor
Silver futures in the July contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed after settling last Friday at 17.05 while currently trading at 16.70 an ounce down about $.35 for the trading week hitting a two week low. Silver prices broke out two weeks ago and traded as high as 17.75 hitting a 3 month high, however I did not give any trade recommendation because the chart structure was so poor and the risk was way too high to enter so I’m still sitting on the sidelines at the current time.
The U.S dollar has regained its bullish momentum which is putting pressure on silver prices as the trend is mixed at the current time and I don’t like trading choppy markets as its extremely difficult to trade successfully in my opinion as lower prices look to be ahead in my opinion but I’m not recommending any type of position currently.
Volatility in silver at the current time is relatively mild as silver historically speaking is one of the most volatile commodities as something sure will develop in the coming weeks ahead so keep an eye on this market and wait for a better chart structure to develop lowering monetary risk as that’s the main key to successful trading in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor
Coffee futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 127 while currently trading at 125 a pound down about 200 points for the trading week as I’m sitting on the sidelines in this market and certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as the trend is to the downside but the chart structure is poor as the 10 day high is too far away & does not meet my criteria to enter into a new trade.
Production estimates in Brazil are expected to be very large and that’s what pushing prices lower as the Brazilian Real remains extremely weak against the U.S dollar which is negative anything that’s grown in the country of Brazil as volatility has slowed down this Memorial shortened holiday trading week but look at other markets with better chart structure.
Coffee prices are trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average as I do think there’s a possibility that prices could trade down to the 105 level over the next 4 to 6 weeks as there’s very little bullish fundamental news to dictate prices to the upside in my opinion except possible short covering at this time.
Many of the soft commodities have been going lower including sugar, orange juice, and coffee in recent weeks as global supplies are just very large and that’s what continuing to pressure prices as I don’t see that situation changing anytime soon or at least until the next growing season.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor
Get more of Mike's calls for this week on Corn, Oats, Sugar, Live Cattle and more....Here's this weeks entire article.
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Tuesday, May 26, 2015
Free Webinar: The 5 Step Checklist You Can Use to Find the Next Hedge Fund Darlings
Our trading partner John Carter of Simpler Stocks and Options is back this Tuesday evening June 2nd at 8 pm eastern with another one of his game changing free trading webinars and the trading methods he is covering this time are soooo simple.
You probably already know that John's webinars are wildly popular and always fill to capacity so reserve your asap and log in 10 minutes early to guarantee you don't lose your seat to someone on the waiting list.
Register Today
In this Free Webinar John Carter is going to share....
* How do you find these stocks in today's unpredictable market
* The fundamental criteria every stock should meet before you buy
* The technical analysis tool that I almost named my first child after
* Why the market conditions are perfect for this opportunity right now
And much more....
Just Click Here to Reserve Your Seat Right Now
John sent out a great free video as a primer for this event.....Watch it Here
See you Tuesday night,
The Crude Oil Trader
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You probably already know that John's webinars are wildly popular and always fill to capacity so reserve your asap and log in 10 minutes early to guarantee you don't lose your seat to someone on the waiting list.
Register Today
In this Free Webinar John Carter is going to share....
* How do you find these stocks in today's unpredictable market
* The fundamental criteria every stock should meet before you buy
* The technical analysis tool that I almost named my first child after
* Why the market conditions are perfect for this opportunity right now
And much more....
Just Click Here to Reserve Your Seat Right Now
John sent out a great free video as a primer for this event.....Watch it Here
See you Tuesday night,
The Crude Oil Trader
Get out latest FREE eBooK "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here
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Sunday, May 24, 2015
Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Coffee and Sugar Markets Recap with Mike Seery
Our trading partner Mike Seery is back this week to give our readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.
Crude oil futures settled last Friday in New York at 60.54 a barrel in July contract while currently trading at 59.72 down about $1.00 this Friday afternoon trading below its 20 day but above its 100 day moving average as the trend currently is mixed. I will be recommending a short position if oil breaks $50 a barrel then placing your stop loss above the 10 day high but at the current time I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for a breakout to occur as the U.S dollar was up 300 points this trading week reversing much of its recent losses putting pressure on many commodity prices in the last several days.
Sometimes as a trader the best thing to do is sit on the sidelines and be patient and wait for a trend to develop as this market could be headed to the downside in my opinion next week so keep a close eye on this market as a possible trade is coming. Its Memorial Day weekend here in the United States which creates high demand for unleaded gasoline as millions of Americans will be on the road in the next several days, however I think that’s already been priced into the market as the fundamentals I do believe will turn bearish once again but avoid choppy markets as they are very difficult to trade successfully in my opinion and wait for the breakouts to occur which could happen in Tuesday trade.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Improving
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Gold futures in the June contract are trading above their 20 day but below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend remains mixed as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines in this market for quite some time as prices are stuck in an eight week consolidation. The U.S dollar was up over 300 points for the trading week as the ECB basically stated that they will add more stimulus to push the Euro currency lower as the tide has turned and I see no reason to own gold at the present time coupled with the fact that the stock market is hitting another all time high as interest is in the equities and not in the precious metals. The next breakout is around 1,230 to the upside but the chart structure is poor at the current time so look at other markets that are beginning to trend as the U.S dollar in my opinion looks to break 100 in the coming weeks which will continue to put pressure on gold prices. Gold settled last Friday at 1,225 an ounce while currently trading at 1,205 down $20 for the trading week as Memorial Day weekend is upon us.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor
Coffee futures in July contract are lower for the 4th consecutive trading session at 126.50 a pound hitting a fresh contract low trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average as world production was raised to 154.5 million bags above recent estimates sending coffee prices sharply lower as I was recommending a short position, however I got stopped out as prices hit the 10 day high and I’m now sitting on the sidelines as the risk is too high in my opinion. The chart structure in coffee is terrible at the current time but I’m certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as prices could retest the September 2013 lows around 105 a pound in the coming weeks as worldwide production seems to be growing on a weekly basis. As a trader I look for the risk/reward to be in your favor coupled with very solid chart structure but at the current time this market does not meet either of those theories so I have to wait for better chart structure to develop as it might take a week or so depending on market activity, however lower prices look to be ahead as many of the agricultural markets especially the soft commodities continue to move lower in the short term, however oversold conditions currently exist in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor
Sugar futures in the July contract are trading lower for the 3rd consecutive trading session as I was recommending a bullish futures position when prices broke out around 13.55 getting stopped out this week around the 12.66 level losing around 90 points or $1,000 plus slippage and commission as that trade went south immediately. Sugar futures are now trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average hitting a 7 week low as I’m now sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure remains poor at the current time. Sugar futures settled last Friday at 12.86 while currently trading at 12.37 down about 50 points for the trading week as this market remains extremely choppy as I will wait for a lower risk entry point which could be several weeks away in my opinion. Many of the commodity markets remain choppy as I have very few recommendations at the current time as I’m trend follower but the one thing that I do understand is that the trends will come back it just may take some time so be patient as volatility will come back.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor
Get more of Mikes calls on soybeans, cotton, wheat, corn and more....Just Click Here!
Crude oil futures settled last Friday in New York at 60.54 a barrel in July contract while currently trading at 59.72 down about $1.00 this Friday afternoon trading below its 20 day but above its 100 day moving average as the trend currently is mixed. I will be recommending a short position if oil breaks $50 a barrel then placing your stop loss above the 10 day high but at the current time I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for a breakout to occur as the U.S dollar was up 300 points this trading week reversing much of its recent losses putting pressure on many commodity prices in the last several days.
Sometimes as a trader the best thing to do is sit on the sidelines and be patient and wait for a trend to develop as this market could be headed to the downside in my opinion next week so keep a close eye on this market as a possible trade is coming. Its Memorial Day weekend here in the United States which creates high demand for unleaded gasoline as millions of Americans will be on the road in the next several days, however I think that’s already been priced into the market as the fundamentals I do believe will turn bearish once again but avoid choppy markets as they are very difficult to trade successfully in my opinion and wait for the breakouts to occur which could happen in Tuesday trade.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Improving
Our next webinar “The fundamental criteria every stock should meet before you buy”....Sign Up Now
Gold futures in the June contract are trading above their 20 day but below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend remains mixed as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines in this market for quite some time as prices are stuck in an eight week consolidation. The U.S dollar was up over 300 points for the trading week as the ECB basically stated that they will add more stimulus to push the Euro currency lower as the tide has turned and I see no reason to own gold at the present time coupled with the fact that the stock market is hitting another all time high as interest is in the equities and not in the precious metals. The next breakout is around 1,230 to the upside but the chart structure is poor at the current time so look at other markets that are beginning to trend as the U.S dollar in my opinion looks to break 100 in the coming weeks which will continue to put pressure on gold prices. Gold settled last Friday at 1,225 an ounce while currently trading at 1,205 down $20 for the trading week as Memorial Day weekend is upon us.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor
Coffee futures in July contract are lower for the 4th consecutive trading session at 126.50 a pound hitting a fresh contract low trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average as world production was raised to 154.5 million bags above recent estimates sending coffee prices sharply lower as I was recommending a short position, however I got stopped out as prices hit the 10 day high and I’m now sitting on the sidelines as the risk is too high in my opinion. The chart structure in coffee is terrible at the current time but I’m certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as prices could retest the September 2013 lows around 105 a pound in the coming weeks as worldwide production seems to be growing on a weekly basis. As a trader I look for the risk/reward to be in your favor coupled with very solid chart structure but at the current time this market does not meet either of those theories so I have to wait for better chart structure to develop as it might take a week or so depending on market activity, however lower prices look to be ahead as many of the agricultural markets especially the soft commodities continue to move lower in the short term, however oversold conditions currently exist in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor
Sugar futures in the July contract are trading lower for the 3rd consecutive trading session as I was recommending a bullish futures position when prices broke out around 13.55 getting stopped out this week around the 12.66 level losing around 90 points or $1,000 plus slippage and commission as that trade went south immediately. Sugar futures are now trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average hitting a 7 week low as I’m now sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure remains poor at the current time. Sugar futures settled last Friday at 12.86 while currently trading at 12.37 down about 50 points for the trading week as this market remains extremely choppy as I will wait for a lower risk entry point which could be several weeks away in my opinion. Many of the commodity markets remain choppy as I have very few recommendations at the current time as I’m trend follower but the one thing that I do understand is that the trends will come back it just may take some time so be patient as volatility will come back.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor
Get more of Mikes calls on soybeans, cotton, wheat, corn and more....Just Click Here!
Tuesday, May 19, 2015
New Video: Secret Strategy to Get into Stocks Before the Hedge Funds Do
When our trading partner John Carter of Simpler Stocks and Options makes a claim like this we listen and so should you. John has put together a new free video that shows us how to use the habits of most hedge funds to know exactly when to enter positions. And this is easy.
Just click here to watch "Why Now is the Best Time to Buy Stocks"
In this free video John will share:
* Why money coming out of a large cap stocks is an opportunity for you
* What's the magic price that gets stocks on the hedge funds radar
* Why there is still an opportunity in buying stocks today if you know where to look
* Why the opportunity is no longer in the stocks you probably own right now
And much much more.....
This free video will show you the secret strategy John uses to ride stocks UP when the hedge funds start doing the driving.
Watch it here and put this to work NOW!
See you in the markets!
Ray C. Parrish
aka the Crude Oil Trader
Secret Strategy to Get into Stocks Before the Hedge Funds Do
Just click here to watch "Why Now is the Best Time to Buy Stocks"
In this free video John will share:
* Why money coming out of a large cap stocks is an opportunity for you
* What's the magic price that gets stocks on the hedge funds radar
* Why there is still an opportunity in buying stocks today if you know where to look
* Why the opportunity is no longer in the stocks you probably own right now
And much much more.....
This free video will show you the secret strategy John uses to ride stocks UP when the hedge funds start doing the driving.
Watch it here and put this to work NOW!
See you in the markets!
Ray C. Parrish
aka the Crude Oil Trader
Secret Strategy to Get into Stocks Before the Hedge Funds Do
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Sunday, May 17, 2015
Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Silver and Coffee Markets Recap with Mike Seery
Our trading partner Mike Seery is back this week to give our readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.
Crude oil futures in the June contract are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average as I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I’m sitting on the sidelines in this market but I do think prices have topped out around $62 which seems to be major resistance as prices settled last Friday at 59.37 while currently trading at 59.70 up slightly for the trading week. If you are currently long this market I would place my stop loss below the 10 day low which currently stands around 58.40 as Saudi Arabia this week stated that prices will never get to $100 again and actually said in the next decade prices could stay below $40 as the world is awash with crude oil at the current time. The U.S dollar hit a 4 month low this week and that has pushed up oil prices and many of the commodity prices as the CRB index hit a five month high as well but I do think this rally as long in the tooth as lower prices are ahead but I’m still sitting on the sidelines waiting for better chart structure to develop.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Improving
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Gold futures in the June contract are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average looking to breakout after a 7 week consolidation after settling in New York last Friday at 1,189 currently trading at 1,220 rallying about $30 over the last week as the U.S dollar hit a 4 month low pushing up the precious metals and many commodity prices in general. I am currently sitting on the sidelines in this market as I’m waiting for better chart structure as the 10 day low needs to be raised before we enter, however we could be looking at possibly getting into a bullish position sometime next week as I’m certainly not recommending any type of short position as that’s countertrend at the current time.
The 10 day low is over $40 away so before entering this trade I would like to see the stop loss around $25 away which could happen in week’s trade as the risk factor is my number one formula before entering into a trade so sit on the sidelines and wait for 1,225 to be broken with solid chart structure as my last two recommendations were both to the downside & both were small losers. As a trader you must have thick skin and have to forget about past winners and losers and stay with your trading system and my trading system is a trend following system as I will enter this trade on the upside without blinking twice if the trade meets criteria.
Trend: Higher
Chart structure: Poor
Silver futures in the July contract are trading higher for the 4th consecutive trading session after settling last Friday in New York at 16.47 an ounce up over $1 for the trading week hitting an 11 week high, however the chart structure is extremely poor at the current time so I’m sitting on the sidelines but I’m certainly not recommending any short positions as the trend clearly is to the upside due to the U.S dollar which is down around 800 points over the last 2 months supporting prices here in the short term. Silver futures are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the upside, however the 10 day low it’s too far away to meet criteria so keep an eye on this market and take advantage of any price dips as silver certainly looks to be moving higher in my opinion.
Silver prices continued to flirt with the 15.50 level and was unable to break so now prices are looking at the critical 17.50 level as major resistance and then 18.45 as conditions are overbought at the current time so look for profit taking to ensue before entering a bullish position in my opinion. Volatility in silver has increased in the last several days as silver historically speaking is one of the most volatile commodities on a daily basis so make sure you place the proper amount of contracts risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade as the last two recommendations in silver were to the downside and both were small losses.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Poor
Coffee futures in the July contract settled last Friday at 134.65 while currently trading at 138 as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices broke the 135 level and if you took the original trade continue to place your stop at 138.30 on a closing basis as we could be stopped out possibly in today’s trade. The volatility in coffee is extremely low at the current time with outstanding chart structure but if you are stopped out move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend as I’m very surprised to see this little volatility in such a highly volatile commodity.
Coffee prices have stalled out around the 130 level over the last several months as I would have to think that volatility will start to increase as we’re hanging in there by the skin of our teeth and if you did not take this trade look at other markets as well as it looks like this trend is starting to fizzle out in my opinion.
When you trade the commodity markets you must accept many small losses and that’s what occurring to me over the last several weeks as the loss will be around $1,200 but percentage wise was very small and that’s what I always try to stipulate that you must make sure that you risk 2% maximum on any given trade because you will have more losers than winners over the course of time in my opinion as the object is to let your winners run and cut your losses.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Excellent
Get more of Mike's calls for this week on Corn, Oats, Sugar, Live Cattle and more....Here's this weeks entire article.
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Crude oil futures in the June contract are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average as I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I’m sitting on the sidelines in this market but I do think prices have topped out around $62 which seems to be major resistance as prices settled last Friday at 59.37 while currently trading at 59.70 up slightly for the trading week. If you are currently long this market I would place my stop loss below the 10 day low which currently stands around 58.40 as Saudi Arabia this week stated that prices will never get to $100 again and actually said in the next decade prices could stay below $40 as the world is awash with crude oil at the current time. The U.S dollar hit a 4 month low this week and that has pushed up oil prices and many of the commodity prices as the CRB index hit a five month high as well but I do think this rally as long in the tooth as lower prices are ahead but I’m still sitting on the sidelines waiting for better chart structure to develop.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Improving
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Gold futures in the June contract are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average looking to breakout after a 7 week consolidation after settling in New York last Friday at 1,189 currently trading at 1,220 rallying about $30 over the last week as the U.S dollar hit a 4 month low pushing up the precious metals and many commodity prices in general. I am currently sitting on the sidelines in this market as I’m waiting for better chart structure as the 10 day low needs to be raised before we enter, however we could be looking at possibly getting into a bullish position sometime next week as I’m certainly not recommending any type of short position as that’s countertrend at the current time.
The 10 day low is over $40 away so before entering this trade I would like to see the stop loss around $25 away which could happen in week’s trade as the risk factor is my number one formula before entering into a trade so sit on the sidelines and wait for 1,225 to be broken with solid chart structure as my last two recommendations were both to the downside & both were small losers. As a trader you must have thick skin and have to forget about past winners and losers and stay with your trading system and my trading system is a trend following system as I will enter this trade on the upside without blinking twice if the trade meets criteria.
Trend: Higher
Chart structure: Poor
Silver futures in the July contract are trading higher for the 4th consecutive trading session after settling last Friday in New York at 16.47 an ounce up over $1 for the trading week hitting an 11 week high, however the chart structure is extremely poor at the current time so I’m sitting on the sidelines but I’m certainly not recommending any short positions as the trend clearly is to the upside due to the U.S dollar which is down around 800 points over the last 2 months supporting prices here in the short term. Silver futures are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the upside, however the 10 day low it’s too far away to meet criteria so keep an eye on this market and take advantage of any price dips as silver certainly looks to be moving higher in my opinion.
Silver prices continued to flirt with the 15.50 level and was unable to break so now prices are looking at the critical 17.50 level as major resistance and then 18.45 as conditions are overbought at the current time so look for profit taking to ensue before entering a bullish position in my opinion. Volatility in silver has increased in the last several days as silver historically speaking is one of the most volatile commodities on a daily basis so make sure you place the proper amount of contracts risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade as the last two recommendations in silver were to the downside and both were small losses.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Poor
Coffee futures in the July contract settled last Friday at 134.65 while currently trading at 138 as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices broke the 135 level and if you took the original trade continue to place your stop at 138.30 on a closing basis as we could be stopped out possibly in today’s trade. The volatility in coffee is extremely low at the current time with outstanding chart structure but if you are stopped out move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend as I’m very surprised to see this little volatility in such a highly volatile commodity.
Coffee prices have stalled out around the 130 level over the last several months as I would have to think that volatility will start to increase as we’re hanging in there by the skin of our teeth and if you did not take this trade look at other markets as well as it looks like this trend is starting to fizzle out in my opinion.
When you trade the commodity markets you must accept many small losses and that’s what occurring to me over the last several weeks as the loss will be around $1,200 but percentage wise was very small and that’s what I always try to stipulate that you must make sure that you risk 2% maximum on any given trade because you will have more losers than winners over the course of time in my opinion as the object is to let your winners run and cut your losses.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Excellent
Get more of Mike's calls for this week on Corn, Oats, Sugar, Live Cattle and more....Here's this weeks entire article.
What are the stock market life cycles that help you predict where the market is headed tomorrow....Just Click Here!
Friday, May 15, 2015
Phil Flynn on the Growl of the Crude Oil Bears
While the bearish oil traders have been missed out on a rally for almost $20 a barrel, they are now doubling down on their bearish calls .This comes after today may set a near record 9th week of gains for the most consecutive weekly gains in at least 30 years. Yet despite that prices run bearish, market talk is getting louder and at least for right now some market participants are starting to listen. As oil tried for new highs for the years this week the bearish calls came from high and low and the press has been widely covering them and may have caused some traders to take profits. Many Bears still think that the market has been wrong for the last 9 weeks and an inevitable price collapses is just around the corner.
Bearish traders focused on the fact that U.S. production had held steady last week and talk that refiner demand has fallen. Refiners cut runs by the most in four months but have been refining product at a near record pace for this time of year. They point out that even though that U.S. supply is starting to fall it does not take away from the fact that we put away over 117 million barrels in storage over the last 6 months. Yet oil has rallied 9 weeks in a row in spite of that. Or that refined product increased in March despite the fact that normally refined product falls. Yet it may not be the lack of demand that caused that but strong refining margins that is encouraging refiners to ramp up production ahead of what should be an uptick in demand.
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We also hear some bears complain that the only reason that oil did not go down to $25 a barrel was an increase in the value of the dollar! Well they might also argue that oil would not have gone down into the $40 handle unless the dollar soared. If you look at the chart of the dollar it went straight up after the November OPEC meeting because of the thought that the U.S. was going to start raising interest rates while the rest of the world either lowered rates. While that is going to happen the fear that the U.S. would start rate increases almost immediately obviously is not going to happen. So know these dollars has adjusted by falling as U.S. data is weaker than expected. Still today an uptick in the dollar is weighing on oil.
Oil is also anticipating an uptick in demand as global easing will spark demand. Despite talk of weak demand in China they just imported a record amount of oil. Oil products did show strength as RBOB futures rallied off of refining problems. Glitch in the Mid-west could help provide some back door support for oil.
Uncertainty about the success of President Obama's Camp David Iran Deal initiative. The President tried to assure Mid-East Leaders that the U.S. would rise up and defend them from any attack. It looks like we could have an arms race in the Middle East. Gold is giving back a big part of its recent rally as the dollar tries for a comeback. The talk that India's demand was rising had been a supporting factor. Support also came from The World Gold Council report that said that Germany's demand for gold and coins spiked by 20% in the first quarter from the year before. Do you think the average German is a little worried about the impact of QE and a Greek bail out on their purchasing power? Yet global gold demand fell 1% in the first quarter, as Chinese jewelry demand fell hard. The Report now expects India to overtake China as the world's largest gold consumer.
Phil Flynn
The PRICE Group
See Phil on the Fox Business Network! Market Watch says he is a must follow, follow him on Twitter @energyphilflynn or email Phil at pflynn@pricegroup.com.
Protecting Yourself with Gold, Oil and Index ETF’s....Just Click Here!
Bearish traders focused on the fact that U.S. production had held steady last week and talk that refiner demand has fallen. Refiners cut runs by the most in four months but have been refining product at a near record pace for this time of year. They point out that even though that U.S. supply is starting to fall it does not take away from the fact that we put away over 117 million barrels in storage over the last 6 months. Yet oil has rallied 9 weeks in a row in spite of that. Or that refined product increased in March despite the fact that normally refined product falls. Yet it may not be the lack of demand that caused that but strong refining margins that is encouraging refiners to ramp up production ahead of what should be an uptick in demand.
Get our latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!
We also hear some bears complain that the only reason that oil did not go down to $25 a barrel was an increase in the value of the dollar! Well they might also argue that oil would not have gone down into the $40 handle unless the dollar soared. If you look at the chart of the dollar it went straight up after the November OPEC meeting because of the thought that the U.S. was going to start raising interest rates while the rest of the world either lowered rates. While that is going to happen the fear that the U.S. would start rate increases almost immediately obviously is not going to happen. So know these dollars has adjusted by falling as U.S. data is weaker than expected. Still today an uptick in the dollar is weighing on oil.
Oil is also anticipating an uptick in demand as global easing will spark demand. Despite talk of weak demand in China they just imported a record amount of oil. Oil products did show strength as RBOB futures rallied off of refining problems. Glitch in the Mid-west could help provide some back door support for oil.
Uncertainty about the success of President Obama's Camp David Iran Deal initiative. The President tried to assure Mid-East Leaders that the U.S. would rise up and defend them from any attack. It looks like we could have an arms race in the Middle East. Gold is giving back a big part of its recent rally as the dollar tries for a comeback. The talk that India's demand was rising had been a supporting factor. Support also came from The World Gold Council report that said that Germany's demand for gold and coins spiked by 20% in the first quarter from the year before. Do you think the average German is a little worried about the impact of QE and a Greek bail out on their purchasing power? Yet global gold demand fell 1% in the first quarter, as Chinese jewelry demand fell hard. The Report now expects India to overtake China as the world's largest gold consumer.
Phil Flynn
The PRICE Group
See Phil on the Fox Business Network! Market Watch says he is a must follow, follow him on Twitter @energyphilflynn or email Phil at pflynn@pricegroup.com.
Protecting Yourself with Gold, Oil and Index ETF’s....Just Click Here!
Wednesday, May 13, 2015
Prognosticators Who Cried Wolf about Dollar & Global Economic Collapse – Part 1
Over the years, hundreds of various self proclaimed prognosticators who said a global economic collapse were to happen on this date or that date have failed. Sort of like the old story about the shepherd who cried wolf.
Unfortunately this is EXACTLY what looks to be getting ready to happen. But first let me mention that the most accurate doomsday/sky is falling talking heads out there who have predicted several life changing events correctly in the past always seem to be 3 - 5 years early.
I believe it is because they focus almost strictly on fundamentals and economic data and ignore price analysis of various assets which could help in timing these events. There is no doubt in my mind they are correct about the fundamentals being out of whack and unsustainable, but I know from trading that fundamental data can lead or lag the actual markets themselves by several years.
In 2011 and 2012 several global economic collapse scenarios started to float around the market place. Now 4 - 5 year later we have yet to have a global collapse. But, what is interesting is the fact that many of the things they said would start to happen HAVE started happening in the past few months.
What scares me the most is the fact that the US bond bubble may burst, the USA will not be able to service their debt, the dollar will collapse in value, and a new currency will emerge.
If this happens everyone will experience some rough times for a while. Keep in mind that most of the US dollars are held outside the United States. The dollar is global and will send a shockwave into several countries financial systems.
Barack Obama has been working secretly on a new treaty and potentially new world currency. Only members of Congress are allowed to look at the treaty and they are being banned from saying anything to the public.
Americans could lose most of their wealth overnight and thanks to all of this secrecy they won’t even see it coming. There is the potential for a massive devaluation in the dollar which could happen literally overnight. This means Americans (individuals holding primarily U.S. Dollars) will wake up one morning with a fraction of the wealth they had 24 hours ago. Its scary stuff to say the least.
This new treaty is the “Trans Pacific Partnership”, and is being touted as perhaps the most important trade agreement in history. Very few people in this country are talking about it.
Currently, there are 12 countries in negotiations: the United States, Canada, Australia, Brunei, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam. These countries have a total population of 790 million people which accounts for an astounding 40 percent of the global economy. If the EU, China, and India join then this treaty will likely pass.
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Chris Vermeulen
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