We Adjusted Our Retirement Account Positions with This Major Signal Issued - Did You Get The Signal?

Our trading partner Chris Vermeulen, who are readers have followed for a while now, is loving what is happening in the markets for the last three weeks. He wants a big bounce here because it is going to set us up with a huge long-term investment position once price confirms this next entry signal.

Last week Chris issued a trade alert to members of his long-term investing newsletter. This allows you to protect your wealth and assets while continuing to take advantage of opportunities generated by the U.S and global markets over the next several months and possibly into next year. This is the first trade alert issued in 2020 of this kind, and he may have another very soon, but it's not too late to take advantage of the first signal.

If you are a trader or investor, with a retirement account of any type, or have assets in the stock market, then you need to take action and sign up to get these important investment trade signals.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes.

If they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose another 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow out long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and Chris shows us how.

Check It Out Here

Sincerely,

Chris Vermeulen
Founder of The Technical Traders

Three Charts Every Trader and Investor Must See

Understanding the stock market and its potential through the use of technical analysis and historical price events has been proven repeatedly to outperform all forms of fundamental trading styles. The following is a story that walks you through my experience, the shift in my mindset and how I came to the conclusion that the three charts I share in this article are critical to your understanding of to make money in today’s market!

When I first learned to trade, I got all caught up with researching companies and finding the ones with the best earnings and future growth. I did that for several years after studying and following many “professional traders” who said it was the best way to trade and invest long term. We lost our shirts during the 2000 bear market by continuing to trade on fundamentals as stocks fell in value week after week. Even the companies that showed quarterly earnings growth fell in value – none of it seemed to make any sense to me, and it was very frustrating.

Losing money when buying the best companies made no logical sense, making me step back from the markets and ask myself, ‘what am I doing wrong here‘. People today are asking themselves the same question given today’s dizzying markets:

· Telsa shares fell from $971 a share down to $347, whopping 63% drop, in only a few weeks and then rebounded again too xx

· Netflix is down 30%, even though people are stuck at home desperately trying to find things to watch)

· Amazon has fallen 26% in the past couple of weeks despite soaring demand for their delivery services

· GDXJ, the gold miners sector that is typically a safe haven during times of volatility, crashed 57% even though gold is usually a safe haven during times of volatility.

So, what was I doing wrong? I started calling and visiting traders who were making money during the bear market to see what they were doing, and 100% of them were doing the same thing – Trading with Technical Analysis. I wasn’t doing anything wrong, per se. I was simply using the wrong tools and analysis for success!

What is Technical Analysis? In short, it’s the study of price, time, and volatility of any asset using price charts and indicators. Traders use technical analysis to find cycles and patterns in the market and trade on the analysis of preferred indicators as opposed to the fundamentals of a company and/or the economy in general.

When you start studying technical traders, you will notice every trader has a particular time frame, a preferred set of indicators, and trading frequency that fits their unique personality and lifestyle. Their brains can see the charts in ways you and I may not see them to predict future price direction over the next few hours, days, weeks, or months ahead. I quickly learned there are infinite ways to trade using technical analysis.

I was very surprised by how much these pro traders allowed me. While standing over their shoulders, I was looking at their charts to try to divine their high-level strategies and learn how they think, analyze, and trade. It was amazing how different each of them traded the market. Some traded currencies; others traded stocks, indexes, options, futures, etc. Most were day traders, swing traders, or a mix of the two. But none of them gave me their secret sauce. That is why I turned 100% of my focus to technical analysis. I was excited at the prospect of being able to profit from both rising and falling prices and no concern for anything other than price action reduced my research time dramatically. It was and is the biggest AH-HA moment of my life and a turning point for my career as a trader.

The year was 2001, when I made the shift to technical analysis. I unsubscribed from everything fundamental based. I canceled my CNBC, stopped listening to news, and stopped reading other people’s reports altogether. My goal was to create my own technical trading strategy that best suited my personality and lifestyle. I would have to discover the securities I was most comfortable trading, the frequency I would trade, and the type and amount of risk I was prepared to take.

I traded options, covered-calls, currencies, stocks, ETFs, and futures. From day trading to position trading (holding several months), I tried it all, hoping something would click for me to pursue at a much deeper level. Day trading, momentum, and swing trading were my sweet spots. Having three of them was a bonus as I know some traders only ever master one in their lifetime if they are lucky. I grew a liking for trading the major indexes like the DJIA, S&P 500, and Nasdaq… great liquidity with big money always at play.

Along my journey, I realized that if I could predict the overall market trend direction for the day or week, then I could day trade small cap stocks in the same direction as the index, knowing 80+% of the stocks follow the general stock market trend. I could generate much larger gains in a very short period of time. As time went on, I became comfortable predicting, trading, and profiting from the indexes, and my new trading strategy began to emerge.

I was fortunate enough to start learning about the markets and trading in college with a $2,000 E-Trade account, and then retiring (kinda) in 2009 at the age of 28. I built my dream home on the water, bought cars and boats, and spent time traveling with my growing family. I love trading and sharing my analysis with others – it is better than I had ever imagined and why I continue to help thousands of traders around the world every day with these video courses Trading System Mastery, and Trading As Your Business.

I contribute 100% of my trading success and lifestyle to the fact that I embraced technical analysis, where my strategy involves nothing more than price movement, position-sizing, and trade risk management techniques. All these allow me to easily reduce exposure, drawdowns, and losses with proper position sizing and protective strategies. If you want quick and simple, read about my journey and core trading tools in my book Technical Trading Mastery – 7 Steps to Win with Logic. My strategy is represented by human psychology and historical trading, as expressed in the three charts below.

Chart 1 – Human Psychology is What Drives Price Action

This chart is my favorite as it explains trader and investor psychology at various market stages. It also includes a simplified market cycle in the upper right corner, letting you know where the maximum financial risk is for investors and the highest opportunity for a trade.

Chart 2 – 2000 Stock Market Top & Bear Market That Followed

The chart may look a little overwhelming, but look at each part and compare it to the market psychology chart above. What happened in 2000 is what I feel is happening this year with the stock market sell-off.

In 2000, all market participants learned of at the same time was that there were no earnings coming from their darling .com stocks. Knowing they were not going to make money for a long time, everyone started selling these terrible stocks, and the market collapsed 40% very quickly.

What is similar between 2000 and 2020? Simple really. COVID-19 virus has halted a huge portion of business activity, travel, purchases, sporting events, etc. Everyone knows earnings are going to be poor, and many companies are going to go bankrupt. It is blatantly clear to everyone this is bad and will be for at least 6-12 months in corporate earnings; therefore, everyone is in a rush to sell their stock shares and are in a panic to unload them before everyone does.

Chart 3 – The 2020 Stock Market Top Looks to Be Unfolding

As you can see, this chart below of this year’s market crash is VERY similar to that of 2000 thus far, it’s based on a similar mindset, which is the fear of losing money, which causes everyone to sell their positions.

I am hopeful that we get a 25-30% rally from these lows before the market starts to fall and continue the new bear market, which I believe we are entering. Only the price will confirm the direction and major trend to follow, and since we follow price action and do not pick tops or bottoms, all we have to do is watch, learn, and trade when price favors new low risk, high reward trade setups.

It does not matter which way the market crashes from here, we will either profit from the next leg down, or will miss/avoid it depending on if we get a tradable setup. Either cause is a win, just one makes money, while the worst case scenario just preserves capital in a cash position, you can’t complain either way if you ask me.

Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

Concluding Thoughts

In short, is if you lost money during the recent market crash, then you likely have not mastered a technical trading strategy and do not have proper trade management rules in place. All traders must manage risk and trades to be sure you lock in profits and limit losses when prices start pullback or collapse. Without either of these, you will not be able to achieve long term success/gains, and that’s a fact.

While we can all make money during a bull market when stocks are rising, if you cannot retain or grow your account during market downturns, then you may as well be a passive buy and hold investors. You are better at riding the emotional investor rollercoaster without wasting your time and effort as a trader if you are not going to spend the time and money to learn to follow someone to become a successful trader. Without proven trading strategies or someone to follow, you are more likely to underperform a long term passive investor.

I get dozens of emails from people every week trying to trade this wild stock market and use leveraged ETFs, which doing so during these unprecedented market conditions is absolute craziness if you ask me.

These people think that because there are big moves in the market, they should be trading. That big money should be made trading them, which drives me crazy because it could not be further from the truth unless you are a scalp or day trader. To me, in this market condition, it’s about preserving capital, not risking it, in my opinion.

A subscriber to my market video analysis and ETF trading newsletter said it perfectly:

“Always intrigues me how many amateur surfers get to the north shore beaches in Hawaii, take one look at monster waves and conclude it’s way too dangerous. Yet the amateur trader looks at treacherous markets like these and wants to dive right in!!” Richard P.

I have to toot my own horn here a little because subscribers and I had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark for our accounts. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over we profited from the sell off in a very controlled way.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts, visit my ETF swing trading visit my website at The Technical Traders.

Chris Vermeulen
Founder of The Technical Traders 

Revisiting Our July 2019 Crude Oil Predictions & Our 2020 Forecast

When it comes to our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system, we get asked questions from our friends and followers about how it could predict a virus event or how it could predict a price event so far out into the future. The truth of the matter is the ADL predictive modeling system doesn’t predict unknown virus, banking or other types of events.

What it does do, quite well we might add, is identify historically accurate price events (almost like unique DNA markers) and attempts to identify future price events that align with recent price bar (DNA) setups. In other words, it maps the markets highest probability outcomes by studying past price activity and using a unique DNA like mapping system. Once this analysis is complete for any chart, we can ask it what is likely to happen in the future.

On July 8, 2019, our researchers did exactly that and posted an article regarding our findings that many people continue to write us about. Some, at first, in total disbelief that Crude Oil could fall to levels below $40 ever again and others that wanted to know how we came up with these numbers. We set our ADL system to show us what is expected on a Monthly Crude Oil chart going forward and it draws the likely outcome and volatility (highs & Lows).

Here is a link to the original article....Just Visit Here

This Screen Capture From The Original July 2019 Article Clearly States

If our ADL predictive modeling is correct, we will see rotation between $47 and $64 over the next 3+ months before a breakdown in price hits in November 2019. This will be followed by two fairly narrow price range months (December 2019 and January 2020) where oil prices will tighten near $45 to $50. After that tightening, we believe an extremely volatile price move will happen in February through April 2020 that could see oil prices trade as low as $22 and as high as $51 over a two to three-month span.

The most critical component of this early research is the statement we have timed perfectly with our system was “we believe an extremely volatile price move will happen in February through April 2020” and the following price predictions.

The ADL predictive modeling system provided us with a hint that volatility would skyrocket throughout this time in Crude Oil. And, as we all know, this next Daily Crude Oil chart highlights the incredible collapse from early January 2020 (near $65.00) to levels just below $50 in early February. After that, the high price level was near $54.50 and the current low price level is $27.34. We believe this downward price rotation in Crude Oil completely validates our earlier ADL predictive analysis.

Imagine having this type of forecast for our trading and investing! Be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter before closing this page so you don’t miss our next special report!

What's Next With The Price of Crude Oil?

Based on short term Fibonacci price momentum targets we could see fall as low as $17 per barrel, but this price target will change dramatically over the next few days depending on if oil bounces higher from here it is now.

If our research is correct, Crude oil may find a bottom somewhere near $17 to $24, the potential rally back up to somewhere above $37 - $41 ppb before staging another massive selloff. The massive volatility suggested by the ADL system also suggests a broad price range over the next 60+ days.

Thus, we believe crude oil will attempt to form a bottom below $30, then attempt a brief rally to “fill the gap” (or partially fill the gap). After that, supply side economics will take over and crude oil should begin to move back towards the to $30 price level again – just as our ADL predictive modeling system suggested.

As of today, we are getting dozens of emails asking about what we see for the US major markets and global markets with our systems. Everyone wants to know “what’s next?”. Most of that research is delivered to our active subscribers/members and you can gain access to that information simply by visiting my website. You really don’t want to miss these next huge moves.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short term swing traders.

Visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders

Gold Rallies as Fear Take Center Stage

Gold has rallied extensively from the lows near $1560 over the past 2 weeks. At first, this rally didn’t catch too much attention with traders, but now the rally has reached new highs above $1613 and may attempt a move above $1750 as metals continue to reflect the fear in the global markets.

We’ve been warning our friends and followers of the real potential in precious metals for many months – actually since early 2018. Our predictive modeling system suggests Gold will rally above $1650 very quickly, then possibly stall a bit before continuing higher to target the $1750 range.

The one thing all skilled traders must consider is the longer term fear that is building in the markets. Many traders are concerned about the global economy with the Coronavirus spreading economic worries throughout Asia, Japan, and Europe. We believe this fear will push precious metals continually higher over the next 24+ months with a real upside target above $2100 eventually.

Right now, skilled traders need to understand that wave after wave of higher price rotation will continue to happen in Gold and Silver. If you missed the $1450 level and missed the $1550 level, this is your time to attempt to find your entry point near $1650 or below that level. Ultimately, real fear has yet to result in a parabolic rally in Gold and Silver – but it is likely going to happen within the next 24+ months.

As skilled traders, our Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting that any price rotation below $1550 would be an excellent buying opportunity. These levels really depend on where the current rally ends and what happens in the global markets over the next 60+ days.

Less than 7 days ago, we published this research article suggesting that our ADL predictive modeling system was telling us that Gold would rally above $1650 within 15 to 30 days. It is very likely this rally will start a multiple leg upside price advance in precious metals where Silver will finally breach the $20 to $21 level as Gold advances higher.

February 13, 2020: Predictive Modeling Suggests Gold Will Break Above $1650 Within 15 - 30 Days

Once fear really enters the markets, we’ll see huge sector rotation and a massive price reversion event take place. Historically, Gold and Silver will react to this move, but the parabolic price move in precious metals will come 4 to 6+ months after the reversion event in the global markets. So, from a historical standpoint, any entry-level near current price levels is exceptional.

Trust us, you really don’t want to miss this next move in precious metals. Our Fibonacci price modeling system and Adaptive Dynamic Learning modeling system are suggesting price levels above $2400 as an ultimate upside price target for Gold.

Join my Swing Trading ETF Wealth Building Newsletter if you like what you read here and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own.

Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders

2020 - A Close Look at What to Expect

Quite a bit has changed in the global markets and future expectations over the past 4+ weeks. Q4 2019 ended with a bang. U.S./China Trade Deal, U.S. signing the USMCA Continental Free Trade Agreement, BREXIT and now the Wuhan Virus. On top of all of that, we’ve learned that Germany and Japan have entered a technical recession. As Q4-2019 earnings continue to push the U.S. stock market higher – what should traders expect going forward in 2020?

Volatility, Sector Rotation, and Continued U.S. Stock Market Strength.

Our researchers have been pouring over our charts and predictive modeling tools to attempt to identify any signs of weakness or major price rotation. There are early warning signs that the US Stock Market may be setting up for a moderate downside price rotation within the first 6 months of 2020, but we believe the continued Capital Shift that has been taking place over the past 24+ months will continue to drive foreign investment into the U.S. and North American stock markets for quite a while in 2020 and 2021.

The interesting component to all of this, which should keep investor’s attention and really get them excited, is the chance that some type of foreign market disruption may take place in 2020 and 2021. There are a number of things that could potentially disrupt foreign market expectations.

First on the list is this virus event in China (that seems to be spreading rapidly). Second would be the news that Japan and Germany have entered a recession. Further down the list is the very real possibility that many Asian and foreign nations could see a dramatic decrease in GDP and economic activity throughout much of 2020 and 2021.

It is far too early to make any real predictions, but traders need to be aware of the longer term consequences of global markets entering a contraction phase related to a confluence of events that prompts central bank intervention while consumers, financial sectors and manufacturing and industrial sectors are pummeled. Imagine what the global markets would look like if 25% to 55% of Asia, Europe, and Africa see a dramatic decrease in economic output, GDP and financial sector activities (on top of the potential for massive loan defaults). It may spark another Credit Crisis Event – this time throughout the Emerging and Foreign markets.

A massive surge in U.S. stock market valuation has taken place since the start of 2020. It is very likely that foreign capital poured into the U.S. stock market expecting continued price advancement and very strong earnings from Q4 2019. This valuation appreciation really started to take place in early 2019 and continued throughout the past 14+ months. We believe this valuation appreciation is foreign capital dumping into the U.S. markets to chasing the strong U.S. economic expectations.

We believe this surge into the U.S. stock markets will continue until something changes future expectations. The U.S. Presidential election cycle would usually be enough to cause some sideways trading in the U.S. stock market – maybe not this time.

The fact that Japan and Germany, as well as China very soon, have entered an economic recession would usually be enough to cause some sideways price rotation in the U.S. stock market – maybe not this time. The potential widespread economic contraction related to the Wuhan virus would normally be enough to cause some contraction or sideways trading in the U.S. stock market – maybe not this time.

There is still a risk that price could revert to middle or lower price channel levels at any time in the future. We’ve highlighted these levels on the charts below. Yet, we have to caution traders that the foreign markets may be setting up for one of the largest capital shift events in recent history. If any of these contagion events roil the foreign markets while the U.S. economic activity and data continue to perform well, then we could be setting up for a massive shift away from risky foreign markets/emerging markets and watch global capital pour into Safe-Havens (metals/miners) and pour into the U.S. stock market (U.S., Canada, Mexico).

We’ve authored numerous articles about how the foreign markets gorged themselves on debt after 2009 while easy money policies allowed them to borrow U.S. dollars very cheaply. We’ve highlighted how this debt is now hanging over these corporations, manufacturers and investors heads as a liability. The recent REPO market activity suggests liquidity risks already exist in the global markets. If these liquidity issues extend further, we could see a much broader market rotation within the U.S. and foreign markets.

Dow Jones Industrial Average – Quarterly Chart

Currently, the U.S. stock market appears to be near the upper range of a defined price channel. Near these levels, it is not uncommon to see some downside price rotation to set up a new price advance within the price channels. This INDU chart highlights the extended price channel trend, originating from 2008, and the more recent price channel (yellow) originating from 2015. Any breakdown of these channels could prompt a much broader downside price move.

SP500 – Quarterly Chart

This SPY chart highlights the extended upside price trend in the US stock markets. The SPY has recently breached the upper price channel level. It may be setting up a new faster price channel, yet we believe this rally in early Q1 2020 is more of a reaction to the very strong 2019 US economic data and the continued capital shift pouring capital into the U.S. markets. A correction from these levels to near $275 would not be out of the question.

Transportation Sector – Quarterly Chart

This Transportation Index (TRAN) chart presents a very clear price channel and shows a moderate weakness recently in this sector. The fact that the TRAN has consolidated into a middle range of the price channel while the other US stock market indexes continue to push higher suggests the valuation advance in the U.S. stock market is mostly “capital chasing strength of the U.S. economy” than a true economic expansion event.

2020 will likely continue to see more volatility, more price rotation, more US stock market strength and further risks of a reversion event. We believe forward guidance for Q1 and Q2 will be revised lower as a result of these new global economic conditions originating from Asia, Europe, and Japan.

If the virus event spreads into Africa and the Middle East (think Belt-Road), then we could see a much broader correction event. In the meantime, prepare for weaker future earnings related to the shut down of industry and consumer sectors throughout much of Asia.

If this “shut down” type of quarantining process extends throughout other areas of the world, then we need to start to expect a much broader economic contraction event. Minor events can be absorbed by the broader markets. Major events where global economies contract for many months or quarters can present a very dangerous event for investors.

Overall, we may see another 20 to 40+ days of “sliding higher” in the U.S. stock market before we see any real risks become present for investors. This means you should start preparing for any potential unknowns right now. Plan accordingly as this event will likely result in a sudden and potentially violent change in price trend.

Join my Swing Trading ETF Wealth Building Newsletter if you like what you read here and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own.

Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders

The Black Swan Event Begins

As the Asian markets opened on late Sunday, traders expected a reactionary price move related to the threat of the Wuhan virus and the continued news of its spread. The U.S. Dow Jones futures markets opened close to -225 points lower on Sunday afternoon and were nearly -300 points lower within the first 25 minutes of trading. Gold opened $10 higher and continued to rally to a level above $15 higher.

If this is early price activity, or a reactionary price move, related to fear of what may come, then the warnings signs are very clear that global traders and investors believe this virus outbreak may very well turn into a major Black Swan event.

Our research team believes a 5% to 8% rotation should be considered a normal reversion range where price may find immediate support and attempt to rally from these support levels. Anything beyond 10% may set up a much bigger price reversion event, something akin to a Black Swan event. Therefore, we are advising our friends and followers to take the necessary steps to protect your wealth and assets as this move continued to extend.

30 Minute YM Futures Chart 

This 30 minute YM futures chart highlights the reactionary downside price move (GAP) taking place on the open of the Asian markets. This GAP lower may be just the beginning of a much broader downside price move. We are going to have to wait and see what happens related to the Wuhan virus over the next 14+ days.

30 Minute Gold Futures Chart

Gold shot up nearly 1% in early trading on Sunday. Fear is driving investors to pile into the precious metals markets. As news of this virus continues to hit the news cycle, we expect metals will continue to push higher and higher – likely targeting the $1750 level in Gold.

If you want to see what the big money players own check out these gold charts and a very different interpretation of the gold COT Data here.

If you have not been following our research and if you have not already positioned your portfolio for this potential reversion event, then now would be a good time to start taking action. Do some research on the 1855 Third Plague Event in China where more than 15 million people died (nearly 1.25% of the total global population at the time). If those levels hold for this event, then possibly 60 to 80 million people may die over related to this event.

Crude oil is collapsing again and just his out downside target of $53. Our energy sector trade idea is up over 15% already.

Remember, all of this is speculation at this point. Yet we urge traders to act now to take action to prevent further erosion of their wealth and retirement accounts. Visit the Technical Traders website to learn how we can help you plan for these events, protect your wealth, and find great trades.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997 I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles, I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life changing if handled properly.

Join my Wealth Building Newsletter if you like what you read here and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own.

Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders

Energy Continues Basing Setup - Next Breakout Expected Near January 24th

After watching crude oil fall from the $65 ppb level to the $58 ppb level (-10.7%) over the past few weeks, we still believe the energy sector is setting up for another great trade for skilled investors/traders.

We are all keenly aware that winter is still here and that heating oil demands may continue to push certain energy prices higher. Yet winter is also a time when people don’t travel as much and, overall, energy prices tend to weaken throughout Winter.

Over the past 37 years, the historical monthly breakdown for crude oil is as follows....

December: Generally lower by -$0.33 to -$0.86. Averages to the downside: -3.65 to +3.08
January: Generally lower by -$4.57 to -$6.72. Averages to the downside: -2.68 to +2.27
February: Generally higher by +$8.41 to +13.73. Averages to the upside +3.07 to -2.54
March: Generally higher by +7.33 to +$15.62. Averages to the upside by +2.84 to -2.14

Over the past 25 years, the historical monthly breakdown for natural gas is as follows....

December: Generally lower by -$2.34 to -$5.26. Averages to the downside: -0.81 to +0.69
January: Generally lower by -$5.14 to -$7.97. Averages to the downside: -0.69 to +0.45
February: Generally lower by -$1.48 to -$3.62. Averages to the downside -0.50 to +0.49
March: Generally higher by +0.63 to +$1.88. Averages to the upside by +0.41 to -0.70

Over the past 35 years, the historical monthly breakdown for heating oil is as follows....

December: Generally lower by -$0.16 to -$0.37. Averages to the downside: -0.14 to +0.09
January: Generally lower by -$0.52 to -$0.96. Averages to the downside: -0.09 to +0.10
February: Generally higher by +$0.48 to +$1.06. Averages to the upside +0.11 to -0.08
March: Generally higher by +0.03 to +$0.11. Averages to the upside by +0.09 to -0.10

This data suggests an extended winter in the U.S. may prompt further contraction in certain segments of the energy sector that may prompt an exaggerated downside price move in crude oil and natural gas. heating oil may rise a bit if the cold weather continues well past March/April 2019.

Conversely, if an early spring sets up in the U.S., then crude oil may begin to base a bit as people begin to traveling more, but heating oil and natural gas may decline as cold weather demands abate.

Heating oil has almost mirrored crude oil in price action recently. Our modeling systems are suggesting that crude oil may attempt to move below $40 ppb. This move would be a result of a number of factors – mostly slowing global demand and a shift to electric vehicles. We authored this research post early in January 2020 – please review it.

January 8, 2020: Is The Energy Sector Setting Up Another Great Entry?

We believe any price level below $40 in ERY is setting up for a very strong basing level going forward. We have identified two “pullback zones”. The first is what we call the “Deep Pullback Zone”. The second is what we call the “Deeper Pullback Zone”. Any upside price move from below $40 to recent upside target levels (above $50) would represent a 25%+ price rotation.

Historically, February is a very strong month for ERY. The data going back over the past 12 years suggests February produces substantially higher upside price gains (+1899.30 to -394.28) – translating into a 4.8:1 upside price ratio over 12 years. Both January and March reflect overall price weakness in ERY over the past 12 years. Thus, the real opportunity is the setup of the “February price advance”.

We believe any opportunity to take advantage of this historical technical price pattern is advantageous for skilled traders/investors.

This is a pure technical pattern based on price bar data mining. This is something you may not have ever considered unless you had the tools to search for historical price anomalies and rotation patterns. We have created a suite of tools and price modeling systems we use to help our members find incredible opportunities – this being one of them.

Get ready, February will likely prompt a very nice rally in ERY if historical price triggers confirm future price activity. The price pattern in February suggests a large upside price move is likely in ERY and we believe these low price basing patterns are an excellent opportunity for skilled traders.

Join my Wealth Building Newsletter if you like what you read here and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own.

Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders

ADL Gold Prediction Confirms Our Targets

The Gold rally we predicted to happen in late 2018 took place, almost perfectly, based on our ADL predictive modeling systems results. This rally took place in May through September 2019 and pushed Gold up to levels near $1600. The rest of the year, Gold consolidated near $1500 as a strong US Stock Market rally took hold in Q4 of 2019.

Our original prediction was that Gold would rally to levels near $1750 before the end of 2019 based on our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive modeling system (ADL). This did not happen in 2019 as out ADL modeling systems suggested, but it appears Gold is setting up for another massive upside rally in 2020.

Taking a look at our ADL predictive modeling systems on Monthly charts for Gold and Silver, we see two very interesting suggestions setting up :

• First, Gold may attempt a rally to a level above $1700 before March/April 2020 and potentially extend this rally to well above $1850 by August/September 2020.

• Second, Silver appears to lag behind this Gold rally by about 7 to 8 months. Silver does not appear to want to start a rally until well after July or August 2020.

If we consider what happened in 2008/09 with the global credit market crisis, both Gold and Silver contracted lower near the start of this crisis (in late 2008). Eventually, Gold began to move higher in August/September 2009 (well into the crisis event). Silver didn’t really start to accelerate higher will August 2010 – a full 12 months after the Gold rally started.

Our ADL system is suggesting that the Silver rally will lag behind the gold rally by about 10 to 14 months given the ADL predictions for price activity in 2020. Thus, Gold may continue to rally much higher fairly early in 2020, yet we won’t see much upside movement in Silver till after July 2020.

Monthly Gold ADL Chart

This first Monthly Gold ADL chart highlights the ADL predictive modeling systems suggestion related to future price targets. We can see the upside move in Gold should begin with an upside target near $1600-1625 over the next 60+ days. After that, the rally should accelerate higher in April/May 2020 with another move higher towards $1700-1725. By August/September 2020, Gold should attempt a rally to levels above $1800-1850 and then begin to consolidate above $1800 for a few months.

Silver Monthly ADL Chart

This Silver Monthly ADL chart suggests that Metals will react very similar in 2020 to what happened in 2008-09. While Gold began to rally in August 2009, Silver did not begin to accelerate higher till August/September 2010. This delay in the understanding that Silver presents valid protection against risk may take place in this current upside rally in Gold. If the ADL predictions are accurate, then Silver will continue to provide buying opportunities for many months near $17.50-$18.00 before a major upside price advance begin.

By July 2020, Our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting Silver will advance to levels above $18.25, then begin a major price advance to levels above $19-20 fairly quickly. Please keep in mind the scope of these predictions related to the global markets and the U.S. Presidential elections. We read into this that a lot of chaos/turmoil may be taking place in the US/World after June/July 2020.

Weekly Gold Chart

This last chart is a Weekly Gold chart highlighting our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs and the major resistance level that has just been broken in Gold. The heavy GREEN arc and the BLACKLINE that we’ve drawn on this chart represent massive resistance originating from the lows near August 2018 in Gold. We believe this resistance level, once broken, will prompt a major upside price move in Gold to levels closer to or above $1700. If this price advance in Gold aligns well with our ADL predictions, then we believe fear will continue to drive future a future price advance in Gold and that fear may be related to continued Global stock market concerns and the U.S. elections.

2020 may be a very good year for precious metals traders who are able to identify solid entry trades for these moves. If our ADL predictions are accurate, Gold should rally over 25% before the end of 2020. Silver may rally as much as 15% before the end of 2020. The timing of these moves suggests Gold traders will have opportunities for bigger price advanced early in 2020 and will begin a larger upside price move after February/March 2020. Silver will begin an upside price move after basing near the March/April 2020.

2020 is going to be a fantastic year for skilled technical traders. Join us and our valued members in finding great trades and incredible opportunities in the markets by joining The Technical Traders.

Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders Ltd.

American Shale Oil In High Demand

The narrative a while back was that the world would face a shortage of heavy crude because sanctions on Iran and Venezuela had reduced production and exports. Some also implied that shale oil would fill up U.S. storage because American refiners were designed to process the heavy, high sulfur crudes from Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and the like.

But the light, sweet crude is in high demand for export, and that appetite is likely to continue to grow with the implementation of IMO 2020 around the corner, going into effect January 1st. Freight rates from the U.S. Gulf to Europe have surged to record highs.

Equinor ASA and Unipec, the trading arm of China's top refiner Sinopec, have provisionally chartered Aframax tankers for $60,700 per day, an increase of almost 30 percent in a week, a new record high, according to shipbroker Poten & Partners. Aframax tankers are the “workhorse” of the U.S.-Europe oil trade, which has risen more than 60 percent in 2019 compared to 2018.

The EPIC pipeline began service in August. It has the capacity to deliver 400,000 b/d from the Permian Basin to terminals on the Gulf Coast. The new Cactus II pipeline system also started shipping crude oil in August. It has the capacity to deliver 670,000 b/d of crude oil from the Permian.

And the Gray Oak pipeline began service in November and will be capable of delivering 900,000 b/d at capacity. This new takeaway capacity will effectively reduce the production breakeven costs of substantial Permian crude oil because the pipeline charges are significantly lower than trucking costs.

This should provide stimulus to shale oil production growth, which had slowed due to takeaway pipeline capacity constraints.

Exports Rising
U.S. crude oil exports averaged 3.412 million barrels per day for the weeks ending December 13, 2019. Crude oil exports were 33 percent higher than the same weeks last year. But in the year-to-date, exports are over 50 percent higher.

Exports of crude oil and petroleum products have surged to almost 9 million barrels per day. This makes the United States the largest petroleum exporting country in the world.

Net oil imports have recently dropped below zero, making the U.S. a net oil exporter for the first time in modern history. As a result, the U.S. economy is no longer vulnerable overall to a spike in oil prices, though such a development would hurt consumers while helping domestic oil producers.

The U.S. balance of payments and trade would not be adversely impacted. This is a positive tailwind for the value of the U.S. dollar.

It also has political and defense spending implications. For example, following the attacks on Saudi Arabia in September, President Trump did not put the U.S. military at risk to defend KSA. He also did not counter-attack Iran on behalf of Saudi Arabia. The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia reportedly began talks with Iran to defuse the situation, something the Kingdom did not have to try when the U.S. felt obligated to protect its oil supply for economic reasons.

Conclusions
The U.S. shale revolution is being re-booted by the opening up of new pipes in the second half of 2019. Given strong foreign demand and lower effective breakeven costs, a new surge may be in the works. Market observers who saw growth slowing may be in for a wake-up call over the coming six months when the new economic conditions take hold.

Check back to see my next post!

Best,
Robert Boslego
INO.com Contributor - Energies

Seven Year Cycles Can Be Powerful and Gold Just Started One

Our research and predictive modeling systems have nailed Gold over the past 15+ months. We expected Gold to rally above $1750 before the end of this year, but the global trade wars and news cycles stalled the rally in Gold over the past 2 months. Now, it appears Gold is poised for another rally pushing much higher.

But wait, if you’re thinking I’m just another one of those traders who is always bullish on gold, just know I have been telling the truth about where gold was headed (lower) for years, but finally, the tide has changed!

Gold broke down from a bull market in 2012/2013 – nearly 7 years ago. Now, Gold has broken resistance near $1375 and is technically in a full fledged Bull Market. The importance of this is the seven year cycle and how the rotation in Gold, between the high near $1923 and the low near $1045 represent an $878 price range. The upside (expansion) rally in Gold may very well move in expanding Fibonacci price structures – just like it did in 2005 through 2012. If this is the case, then we may expect to see an ultimate peak price in Gold well above $3500.

The rally that started in the last 2015 and ended in July 2016 totaled +$331.1 (+31.67%). The next price rally that started in August 2018 and ended in September 2019 totaled +$399.4 (+34.22%). If we take the current rally range (399.4) and divide it by the previous rally range (331.1), we end up with an expansion range of 121%. The two unique rallies that happened just before the 2009 parabolic rally in Gold represented (+315.8: 2006) and (394.8: 2008). The ratio of these two rallies is 125%. Could Gold have already set up for another parabolic rally well beyond the $1923 target level?

Before finding out what is next quickly join our free trend signals email list.

Monthly Price of Gold Chart – Bull and Bear Market Trends

Our research team believes Gold has already entered a technically valid Bullish Market trend. We believe Gold miners will follow higher as Gold begins this next move higher. The reason we have not engaged in Miners, yet, is because we have not received any technically valid signals related to the Gold miners indicating they have also entered a new Bullish Market trend.

Gold is the safe haven for the global market. It is a store of value and offers price appreciation when the global market risks are excessive. Because of this, the sentiment across the global markets appears to be weakening in regards to forward expectations and valuation appreciation within the investment/asset classes. If Gold continues to rally higher, consider it a strong indicator that the foundation of the global market valuation levels is weakening considerably.

U.S. Dollar Will Start to Support Higher Gold Prices

Should the U.S. Dollar retrace lower, Gold will see a price increase based on the renewed weakness of the U.S. Dollar. This would also assist in re-balancing global trade and economic issues with the US Dollar moving moderately lower as weakening global markets contract.

Gold Mining Stocks – Monthly Chart

Miners are set up much like Gold was in early 2018. Resistance has been set up with multiple price tops and any momentum rally above this level would technically qualify as a new Bullish Market trend for miners.

At this point, we believe the bottom in miners has already formed and we are simply waiting for the qualifying technical confirmation of the bullish trend to begin. Jumping into this trade too early could result in unwanted risks as the price could still waffle around within the Stage 1 Base range.

If you want to learn more about market stage analysis I will be covering it a new article shortly. Once you grasp the basic concept you will see these stages on every chart no matter the time frame and know when to focus on trading and when to ignore the charts.

If you like new fresh big trend trades then check out this real estate article I just posted and how the real estate ETF could allow your to profit from home prices but you don’t even need to own or buy a home!

Concluding Thoughts

The recent weakness in the US and global markets has prompted a moderately solid upside move in Gold and Silver over the past few days. We still need to see a Gold move above recent resistance to qualify as a new upside rally though. Miners are set up for a breakout technical move which we must also wait for. We believe these two may move somewhat in unison if the global markets continue to contract throughout the end of 2019 and into 2020.

Stay tuned for more updates and alerts when all these key sectors and asset classes start new trends because that is when you want to get involved for immediate oversized gains. See my stock, index, and commodity trade alerts here.

Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders