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It might just be tough talk, but Interior Secretary Ken Salazar has warned the energy industry that expansion could be much harder than under the Bush administration.
Americans should be amply rewarded when companies win exploration and production rights, but let's hope this doesn't mean that new exploration will be significantly restricted.
Especially when it comes to natural gas, which could provide the U.S. with an enormous source of relatively cheap energy.....Read the entire article.
Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If February extends this rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008 decline crossing at 84.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.59 would signal that a short term top has been posted.
Friday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 82.76
First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 83.52 Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008 decline crossing at 84.82
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.59 Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.12
Natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If February extends December's rally, October's high crossing at 6.300 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.701 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Natural gas pivot point for Friday is 5.892
First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 6.077 Second resistance is October's high crossing at 6.300
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.795 econd support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.701
The U.S. Dollar was higher as it extends Thursday's rally. However, stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish hinting that additional weakness is still possible near term.
Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 77.39 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March renews last month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72 is the next upside target.
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 78.32 Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.77
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.84 Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at 77.39
Crude oil is losing some upside moment with 4 hours MACD back below signal line again. Nevertheless, another rise is still in favor with 80.79 support intact and current rise from 68.59 could extend to upper trend line resistance at 87/88 level. On the downside, break of 80.79 will argue that a short term top might be formed with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and deeper pull back could be seen.
In the bigger picture, the break of 82.0 resistance confirms that whole medium term rise from 33.2 has resumed. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that it's a correction to fall fro 147.27. Hence, we'd continue to look for reversal signal as crude oil approaches 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. However, break of 68.59 support is still needed to confirm that rise from 33.2 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will be neutral at worst even in case of deep pull back.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
Natural gas rally stalled at 6.108 and retreated sharply and with 4 hours MACD back below signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral again. Nevertheless, another rise is still in favor as long as 5.615 minor support holds. Above 6.108 will bring rally resumption to 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 next. On the downside, below 5.615 support, however, will indicate that rise from 4.157 has completed and in such case, deeper pull back could be seen to 4.157/5.318 support zone.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005 and might have completed at 2.409 already. Rise from 2.409 is still in progress and should target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. On the downside, break of 4.157 support is needed to indicate that medium term rise from 2.409 has completed. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at worst even in case of deep pullback.....Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If February extends this rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008 decline crossing at 84.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.02 would signal that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 83.52. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-decline crossing at 84.82. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.02. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.63.
Natural gas closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.659 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at 6.300 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 6.108. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 6.300. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.803. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.659.
The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Thursday, as it appears to be forming a wave 4 correction off December's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 77.39 would open the door for a larger degree correction during the first half of January. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.77. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 77.59. Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at 77.39.
Crude oil declined in New York for the first time in 11 days as the dollar climbed against the euro and China moved to slow bank lending. Oil fell as much as 1.1 percent after the greenback rose as the number of Americans filing first time jobless claims climbed less than forecast. A stronger dollar curbs the appeal of commodities to investors. China’s central bank sold three month bills at a higher interest rate for the first time in 19 weeks after saying it will focus on controlling expansion in lending. “The rising dollar is the biggest influence right now,” said Tom Bentz, a senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. “It’s weighing on just about all of the commodities.”
Crude oil for February delivery declined 52 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $82.66 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil climbed to $83.52 yesterday, the highest level since Oct. 14, 2008. The U.S. currency increased 0.6 percent versus the euro to $1.4323, from $1.4408 yesterday. The Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against currencies including the yen, pound and Swedish krona, rose 0.6 percent to 77.933. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities fell 1 percent to 290.93, the first decline this year. “Today’s small move is nothing after 10 days of gains,” said Stephen Schork, president of consultant Schork Group Inc. in Villanova, Pennsylvania. “We could fall for a couple days and it would still be the bulls just catching their breath”.....Read the entire article.
Ok, the easy way to start today’s report is to say that oil hit a 15 month high in yesterday’s trade. Yet how we got there and why we are pulling back has more subplots than a daily television soap opera. There were so many stories pulling at the heart strings of the oil trader it is hard for anyone to keep them all straight. Some happy and some sad and some just plain freaky. Over night oil is pulling back on news that China's central bank raised interest rates on its three month bills for the first time since August, a day after it promised to keep credit growth in check. This slowdown helped end some bullish momentum that was achieved in yesterday’s session.
Of course any good energy report should start with an analysis of the weekly inventories from the Energy Information Agency which is always a factor in the decisions of both the buyers and the sellers. This inventory report, like some of the others before it, was supposed to be all about the impact of colder weather. Heating oil bulls were hoping that this recent cold snap would lead to another large drawdown in overall distillate supply. Yet the EIA reported that distillate inventories fell only by a mere 300,000 barrels. This was a disappointment to the bulls that were hoping supplies had melted away faster than the polar ice caps. When they failed to live up to expectations, the entire petroleum complex that had rallied in anticipation of this report, broke hard in an instant.....Read the entire article.
Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover, talks oil and natural gas inventories as crude backs off a two week rally. Chinese cities are extending gas and electricity rationing in their coldest winter in decades. The military says a natural gas pipeline explosion at Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana has killed a civilian. Google tries to get into the wholesale electricity market. And Clean Skies' Tyler Suiters takes a look at how Iceland may hold some answers for the U.S. When it comes to effectively utilizing the earth's energy resources.
Iraqi and Iranian officials will meet next week to try to solve their border issues, including the dispute over a southern Iraqi oil well which Iranian forces occupied last month, foreign ministers of the two neighboring countries said Thursday. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki made the announcement after meeting his Iraqi counterpart, Hoshyar Zebari, in Baghdad. "Everything will be solved," Mottaki told a joint news conference. "Joint technical committees will start meetings in a week from now, and the borders between the two brotherly countries will be marked," he added.
"We have agreed to normalize the situation on the two countries' borders and bring it back to where it was standing before," Zebari said. The issue of the oil well and all other issues can be solved bilaterally between the two countries, he added. Iraqi officials said last month that Iranian forces occupied Well No. 4 on the al-Fakkah field, in Missan Province in southern Iraq, which straddles the two countries' frontier. The field has estimated reserves of 1.55 million barrels and is part of a cluster of fields Iraq unsuccessfully put up for auction last June.
Iraqi officials said Iranian forces have since withdrawn 50 meters away from the well but they still control the area and are preventing Iraqi oil workers from reaching the well.....Read the entire article.
Jeff Rubin, the former CIBC World Markets Inc. chief economist who accurately predicted oil’s surge during the last decade, expects crude to reach $90 a barrel this quarter and $100 by the year’s end. Accelerating demand in Asia and the Middle East will force consumers to rely on costlier non-conventional energy sources such as oil sands, said Rubin, who spent 20 years with the Toronto based bank and last year published a book on energy economics, “Why Your World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller.” Rubin correctly forecast in 2007 that crude would reach $100.
“It’s safe to say that we’ll see triple digit oil prices by the fourth quarter of this year,” Rubin, 55, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “I would expect prices to move pretty close to that level, and be in the $90 range probably by the end of March.” Crude oil futures rose as high as $83.52 a barrel yesterday, surpassing last year’s peak of $82, after the U.S. Energy Department reported a decline in inventories of distillate fuels like heating oil. In 2008, oil reached an all time high of $147.27. It last traded at $82.40 as of 12:05 p.m. London time. The increase in oil consumption will be driven by emerging economies such as China and India rather than the industrialized nations of western Europe and the U.S., where demand has probably already peaked, according to Rubin.....Read the entire article.
Crude oil surges to as high as 83.52 and the firm break of 82.0 resistance confirms that whole medium term rise from 33.2 has resumed. Intraday bias will now remain on the upside as long as 80.79 minor support holds. Current rise should now be upper trend line resistance at 87/88 level. On the downside, below 80.79 will indicate that an intraday top is formed and bring retreat, probably to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 79.72, before rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, the break of 82.0 resistance confirms that whole medium term rise from 33.2 has resumed. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that it's a correction to fall fro 147.27. Hence, we'd continue to look for reversal signal as crude oil approaches 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. However, break of 68.59 support is still needed to confirm that rise from 33.2 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will be neutral at worst even in case of deep pull back.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
Natural gas' break of 6.035 indicates that consolidations has completed at 5.505 already and whole rally from 4.157 has resumed. Intraday bias now remains on the upside and further rise should be seen to 6.035 will target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 next. On the downside, below 5.615 support, however, will indicate that rise from 4.157 has completed and in such case, deeper pull back could be seen to 4.157/5.318 support zone.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005 and might have completed at 2.409 already. Rise from 2.409 is still in progress and should target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. On the downside, break of 4.157 support is needed to indicate that medium term rise from 2.409 has completed. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at worst even in case of deep pullback.....Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If February extends this rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008 decline crossing at 84.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.98 would signal that a short term top has been posted.
Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 82.52
First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 83.52 Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008 decline crossing at 84.82
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.98 Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.61
Natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If February extends December's rally, October's high crossing at 6.300 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.670 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Natural gas pivot point for Thursday is 5.911
First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 6.077 Second resistance is October's high crossing at 6.300
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.825 Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.670
The U.S. Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight. However, stochastics and the RSI remain bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 77.39 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March renews last month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72 is the next upside target.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.05 Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.77
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.75 Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at 77.39
Overall this week has not been that exciting. Volume is below average as the big money traders slowly get back into action and wait for Fridays economic data to come out.
We have seen gold, silver and oil put in a nice rally this week but they are still not in the clear. If we get flat or better unemployment numbers we should see the US dollar rally. This seems to be exactly what the chart is telling us when using technical analysis. Here are the numbers for Friday.
Friday unemployment numbers come out for both the US & Canada. 7:00 AM ET – Canadian Unemployment Rate, Forecast 8.5%, Previous 8.5% 8:30 AM ET – USD Nonfarm Payrolls, Forecast 0%, Previous -11K 8:30 AM ET – USD Unemployment Rate, Forecast 10.1%, Previous 10%
Here is a table I created for understanding what economic data moves stocks, bonds, US$ and gold: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/Economic-Indicators.pdf
US Dollar Daily Trend The current trend of the dollar is now up when looking at the daily chart (higher highs and lows). The strong price thrust in December has formed a nice flag pattern. This is a continuation pattern meaning the dollar should continue higher once this pause is complete.
Gold Futures Trading Trend – 60 Minute Candle Chart As you can see from the chart below gold has made a short term bottom and is trading at a major resistance level. The question is, does gold reverse and head sharply lower or does it break through the resistance level?
Could this be the start of a new leg higher or a C wave lower (ABC retrace)? I hope it is an ABC retrace which is a bullish price pattern and it flushes out the weak positions before heading higher.
These are questions no one knows for sure but understanding where the current price is trading and that volatility could pick up very quickly in the next couple days is crucial. When volatility is about to increase managing your open positions or adjusting any possible new trades is an important part of being a successful trader.
Rule #1 Keep overall risk per trade low If volatility is about to increase I usually trade smaller positions unless I am in the zone and feeling the markets each and every move.
Rule #2 Never let a winning trade turn into a loser I scale out of positions a little quicker during volatile times to lock in a small profit (20-30% of position) which minimizes my overall risk. This also alleviates some stress as you now have a small profit and you feel good mentally.
Crude Oil – Daily Trend Trading Chart Many of us have had a great run with oil. Some of us traded the USO fund which is equivalent to buying oil at $71. Volatility was high during the time of the trade so we scaled out of the position at $75, $77.50 and $80. Some of you still have a small core position still in place which is fantastic to see!
Currently oil looks long in the teeth and ready for a pullback which could end up working perfect with Friday’s Economic news. Only time will tell so lets take it one candle at a time.
Commodity Trend Trading Conclusion: In short, this is the first week of the year with light volume as traders get back in the groove and wait for 2010’s first big economic news to hit the wires. No many of us want to stick their necks out just yet.
I don’t know what will happen but my thoughts are the news will be positive, even if its not. Some very well educated individuals think the unemployment numbers are false giving everyone the impression things are getting better. I don’t really know what to think, but I did just see Mr. Moores most recent file on Tuesday and I think it is very possible the US is pulling a long con on Americans. All I can say is thank god I’m Canadian Eh! lol
Anyways if the numbers are positive we will see money move into the US dollar, gold and oil will reverse back down. Stocks I think are decoupling from the inverse relationship with the dollar and if that is the case stocks should do well.
Trading before big news can be deadly so I continue wait until Friday or next week before doing much.
Natural gas futures rose to their highest settlement price in a year, exceeding $6 per million British thermal units as cold weather across the U.S. lifted demand for heating fuel. Temperatures in St. Louis, Memphis and Dallas will be below normal for the next week, according to a forecast from MDA Federal Inc.’s EarthSat Energy Weather. Cold weather in recent weeks cut a stockpile surplus to 14 percent for the week ended Dec. 25 from 16 percent at the start of the month. “Storage is going from materially oversupplied to more manageable inventory levels,” said Tom Orr, director of research at Weeden & Co., a brokerage in Greenwich, Connecticut. “It looks like it’s going to continue to be pretty cold here.”
Natural gas for February delivery advanced 37.2 cents, or 6.6 percent, to settle at $6.009 per million Btu at 2:50 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price was the highest since Jan. 5, 2009. The Energy Department may say tomorrow that U.S. stockpiles dropped 155 billion cubic feet last week, based on the median of 21 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The “seasonal norm” withdrawal is 83 billion, Scott Speaker, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s natural gas strategist in New York, said in a note to clients yesterday. “We see a net withdrawal of 144 billion cubic feet, a draw that would significantly tighten the current year over year surplus and the surplus compared to the past five year average,” he said.....Read the entire article.
Crude oil closed sharply higher on Wednesday and spiked above October's high crossing at 83.19. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If February extends this rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008 decline crossing at 84.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.18 would signal that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 83.52. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008 decline crossing at 84.82. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.18. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.22.
Natural gas closed sharply higher on Wednesday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish with today's rally signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If February resumes the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 6.077 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.626 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 6.038. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 6.077. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.798. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.626.
The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Wednesday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.68. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 77.39 are needed confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.77. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72. First support is today's low crossing at 77.59. Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at 77.39.
Baby you can park my car. Yes it might even start, baby you can park my car and baby it is still cold outside. America hibernates and parks their cars as gas consumption hits a 13 month low. The drop in demand led to big surge in gasoline inventories according to two widely followed industry reports.
The first hint that America seemed to stay home for the holidays came from the MasterCard Spending pulse report that showed that gasoline purchases fell to 8.93 million barrels a day which was down 3.5% from the week before and the lowest level of gasoline demand since September 2009. That drop in demand probably explains why in another report by the American Petroleum Institute that showed gasoline inventories surged by 5.58 million barrels.
These reports suggest the obvious, bad weather and the holidays had an adverse impact on gasoline demand. Yet it may also show that demand may still be a bit price sensitive. Retail gas prices also surged last week as the national average pump price rose 4 cents last week to $2.62 a gallon. That according to Bloomberg is 63% higher than it was a year ago at this time.
Of course the increase in price should help inspire a bit more refinery activity. The February gasoline crack spread that indicates the profitability for a refiner to turn crude into gas, improved to $7.48 cents up 65 cents from the beginning of the week. For heating oil the crack spread tightened a bit but is trading at $10.49 cents. Improving margins hopefully will get refiners back in the game producing more product to meet what we hope will be an improving demand picture.....Read the entire article.
Crude oil fell from a 14 month high after a U.S. Energy Department report showed that supplies unexpectedly increased as refineries reduced operating rates and imports gained. Stockpiles climbed 1.33 million barrels to 327.3 million in the week ended Jan. 1. Supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, where New York traded West Texas Intermediate oil is stored, surged to the highest level since tracking began in 2004. Imports rose to the highest amount since November as refinery utilization rates dropped to the lowest total since that month.
“This report shows that there is plenty of crude oil on hand,” said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president of energy with MF Global in New York. “There are also enough shut refinery units to meet any increase in fuel demand.” Crude oil for February delivery dropped 50 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $81.27 a barrel at 10:47 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil traded at $82.47, the highest since Oct. 14, 2008, before the release of the report at 10:30 a.m. in Washington. Prices are up 67 percent from a year ago. Stockpiles of crude oil were forecast to decline 1 million barrels, according to the median estimate of 15 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.....Read the entire article.
Crude inventories and gasoline supplies rose last week, the government said Wednesday. Crude inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels, or 0.4 percent, to 327.3 million barrels, which is half a percent above year ago levels, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report. Analysts had expected a drop of 1.6 million barrels for the week ended Jan. 1, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.
Gasoline inventories increased by 3.7 million barrels, or 1.7 percent, to 219.7 million barrels. That was above analyst expectations and 2.9 percent above year ago levels. Demand for gasoline over the four weeks ended Jan. 1 was 0.3 percent higher than a year earlier, averaging nearly 9 million barrels a day. At the same time, U.S. refineries ran at 79.9 percent of total capacity on average, a drop of 0.4 percentage point from the prior week. Analysts expected capacity to build to 81.05 percent.
Inventories of distillate fuel, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 300,000 barrels to 159 million barrels for the week ended Jan. 1. Analysts expected distillate stocks to drop by 1.8 million barrels. Crude prices fell 72 cents to $81.05 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.....Read the entire article.
Crude oil was slightly lower due to light profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If February extends this rally, the reaction high crossing at 82.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.14 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 81.57
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 82.00 Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 82.28
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.02 Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.14
Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight but remains below broken support marked by the 10 day moving average, which crosses at 5.772. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.613 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If February resumes December's rally, the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 6.077 is the next upside target.
Natural gas pivot point for Wednesday is 5.703
First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 6.038 Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 6.077
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.613 Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 5.505
The U.S. Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight but remains below initial support marked by the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.13. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.
Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.69 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March renews last month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72 is the next upside target.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.13 Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.77
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.69 Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at 77.39
