Phil Flynn: The Great European Gold Rush

The global oil market is trying once again to find value in a global economy gone mad. The near trillion dollar effort to save the euro from a debt laden collapse has crude oil still trying to adjust to this latest chapter in the global economic crisis. Oh sure, earlier in this crisis it was much easier for oil to find its way. The United States having a fed funds target rate of near zero and was buying back toxic assets and so it was clearer. The Fed was printing money like it was going out of style and the EU was not supposed to do the same. So it was clear what to do, buy oil, sell the dollar and buy the Euro. Oil moved inverse to the dollar. The EU you see was not allowed to buy toxic assets. Oh sure, individual countries within the union could buy all the garbage that they may have wanted.

But now the EU, with the backing of the IMF, moved to buy toxic assets and so the purity of the currency is being called into question. Within the EU citizens of the member countries are nervous. They are knocking people over to buy gold. You might say it is a European gold rush not unlike the gold rush we saw in this country post TARP and supplies in Europe are tightening as the fear quotient rises. This movement to hard assets and the Euro confidence flight means crude oil's direct inverse relationship with the dollar is being re-calibrated as the crisis revolves.

As the depth of the Greece Crisis first started to become clear, we have seen Europeans move away from the Euro and buy into gold. The Wall Street Journal says that gold has been hitting records in euro terms since February. On Tuesday it reached €960.41 in London, a increase of more than 26% this year, more than twice the gains of gold in dollar terms. Last week with the Greece debt crisis threatening to bring down global stock markets, the gold buying became a European frenzy. Now in the aftermath of the bailout, gold has hit a record in dollar terms transcending even the US dollar as a safe haven play showing the growing concern that this bailout will save the paper backed global economy from eventual collapse.

Now oil traders are justifiably confused. When oil traders for over a year took their major cue from the movement in the dollar ignoring supply and demand statistics, this changing landscape led to more swings. One thing that the market now realizes is that oil in the high eighty area was and is unsustainable at this time. Now the question is how low can we go or will oil find happiness and comfort in the mid-seventy zone. We think that oil will eventually break lower as the dollar continues to gain and currency uncertainty keeps the market focus on over supply and the rate of improving demand. The truth is that even if demand improves dramatically it will take some time to work into our supply. The API said we added to that supply reporting that crude stocks increased by 362,000 barrels last week, they reported another big build in Cushing Oklahoma of 783,000 barrels. They also showed that distillate stocks increased by 94,000 barrels. Gas stocks fell by approximately 906,000 barrels perhaps reflecting better demand.

Barbara Powell at Bloomberg reported the MasterCard Spending Pulse report showed U.S. gasoline demand at the pump rose 1.4 percent last week from near a 10-week low as fuel consumption increased in six of seven geographic regions. Motorists bought an average 9.34 million barrels of motor fuel a day in the week ended May 7. Daily fuel use over the past four weeks averaged 9.31 million barrels a day, down 0.5 percent from a year earlier. The four-week average was below the previous year for the second straight week. Year-to-date, demand is up 1.3 percent from 2009 which may be the first sign of the pickup in demand as we head toward the long Memorial Day weekend but we’re looking to see if there is a sustained pickup in demand which we have not seen the last two years. We are still long term bears but despite the big drop, crude oil could see anther rebound unless today's Energy Information Agency supply report breaks us again. Oil is a bit oversold and the bulls will try to make a stand. Still we feel the best way to trade it is by playing the wide daily ranges.


Phil can be reached at pflynn@pfgbest.com And make sure to watch him every day on the Fox Business Channel.



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Crude Oil Steady as Report Shows Higher Crude Supplies, Drop in Fuel Stockpiles

Crude oil futures were little changed after a U.S. government report showed an unexpected decline in supplies of gasoline as crude inventories rose. Gasoline inventories fell 2.81 million barrels to 222.1 million in the week ended May 7, the Energy Department said today in a weekly report. Stockpiles were forecast to increase by 400,000 barrels, according to the median of 18 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.

Inventories of crude oil rose 1.95 million barrels to 362.5 million, the department said. Supplies were forecast to increase by 1.6 million barrels. Crude oil for June delivery fell 12 cents, to $76.25 a barrel at 10:35 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil traded at $76.53 a barrel before the release of the report at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.

Prices also moved lower as the International Energy Agency cut its estimate of world oil demand this year by 220,000 barrels to 86.4 million barrels a day in a monthly report. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries bolstered oil output by 40,000 barrels a day in April, according to the IEA. Supplies from the 11 members bound by quotas rose to 26.79 million barrels a day, 70,000 barrels a day more than in March. That means the group’s compliance with the record output cuts slipped to 54 percent last month. Iraq has no output target.

OPEC members will need to pump 28.7 million barrels a day to balance global oil demand and supply this year, according to the IEA. That is 400,000 barrels fewer than the Paris based agency estimated last month. Iran, holder of the world’s second largest oil reserves, may be storing as much as 38 million barrels of crude at sea as demand declines for the heavier, sour grades the Persian Gulf country sells, according to the IEA.

Reporter Mark Shenk can be contacted at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.


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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook Wednesday Morning

Crude oil is still staying in tight range above 74.51 as consolidation continues. Intraday bias neutral and more sideway trading could still be seen. But after all, even in case of another rise, upside should be limited by double top neck line (80.53) and 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 79.35) and bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 74.51 will target 69.50 key support next.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, 33.20 is viewed as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27. Such rise might have completed at 87.15 already, ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Break of 69.50 support will break the series of higher low pattern from 33.2 and will be an important indication that the trend has reversed. In such case, we'll turn bearish on crude oil and expect the then down trend to target a new low below 33.2.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Where is Crude Oil & Gold on Wednesday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson on gold's bull run to a new nominal record closing high, the reasons for the rally, and a look stronger gains for silver (a cheaper safe haven). Meanwhile, oil prices retreat on expectations for bearish inventory data.




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Crude Oil Bulls Fading Fast as Signals Remain Bearish

Crude oil closed lower on Tuesday and is poised to resume last week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June renews last week's decline, the 87% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 72.86 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.64 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.86. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.64. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 74.51. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 72.86.

Natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's rally but remains above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.118. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends Monday's rally, the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.438 is the next upside target. If June renews this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.502 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.235. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.438. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.855. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.502.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Tuesday ending a two day correction off this month's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.39 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June extends this month's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 85.85 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 85.46. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 85.85. First support is Monday's low crossing at 83.07. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.39.

Gold closed higher on Tuesday and posted a new all time high and at the same time renewing the rally off February's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets are hard to project. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1169.20 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1235.20. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1189.20. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1169.20.


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Growing Natural Gas Storage Fails to Slow Drilling

Natural gas production continues to grow while demand remains stagnant. As a result, the amount of natural gas flowing into storage continues to grow and generally at a faster pace than most commodity experts and petroleum analysts have been expecting. The latest weekly storage injection of 83 billion cubic feet (Bcf) exceeded analyst estimates by 3 Bcf. For the week ending April 30th, total gas in storage was 1.995 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), which was 5.1% ahead of the volume in storage at this time last year and 18.8% above the five-year average.

The latest weekly storage injection of 83 billion cubic feet (Bcf) exceeded analyst estimates by 3 Bcf.....

As shown by the chart below, after falling back into the middle of the five year average range of storage volumes beginning in January, storage volumes are now at or above the top end of the five year range. April is the start of the shoulder season for natural gas demand. That means demand is low because winter is over and the air conditioning load from hot summer weather has yet to arrive. Industrial and commercial gas demand remains weak as the economic recovery is advancing at a slower than desired pace. But the bigger problem is the continued high level of gas related drilling, especially in the gas shale basins.

The bigger problem is the continued high level of gas related drilling, especially in the gas shale basins.....

There are many pressures on oil and gas companies to drill their gas shale leases even in the face of weak natural gas prices. The need to hold the leases for which many of the companies have spent large sums of money is one pressure. Another is to use the money raised on Wall Street or through joint ventures and/or creative financing ventures. Lastly, the companies have pledged to investors that they will grow their production volumes at above industry growth rates. As a result, when we examine the pattern of changes in rigs drilling.....



For natural gas and rigs drilling horizontal wells compared to the trend in natural gas futures prices, we see why the industry seems reluctant to slow down its drilling.....Read the entire article.


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How to Take Money and Emotion Out of The Gold Market

From guest blogger Adam Hewison....

Perhaps no other market in the world elicits such emotion and passion than the world's gold market. One only has to mention gold, and theories just come out of the woodwork in regards to conspiracy, market manipulation, and a host of other less than savory subjects.

So what's a trader to do?

Regardless of how you feel about gold, this market presents some great trading opportunities that you can capitalize on using our "Trade Triangle" technology.

Now, hard core gold bugs will not subscribe to this method of trading as they prefer to buy physical gold and hold onto it or bury their bars in their backyard, and to be honest with you, there is nothing wrong with that belief.

I've been asked to update our outlook on gold, so I thought that today I would make a short video to share with you some of the points I see in the current market.

As always, our videos are free to watch and have no obligation. The only thing that we ask is that you share your views on our blog. The views can be bullish on gold or bearish on gold, the choice is yours to make.

Just click here to watch How to Take Money and Emotion Out of The Gold Market

Enjoy the video,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub.com


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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning

Intraday bias in crude oil remains neutral for the moment as consolidations from 74.51 is still in progress. Some more sideway trading cannot be ruled out. But after all, even in case of another rise, upside should be limited by double top neck line (80.53) and 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 80.08) and bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 74.51 will target 69.50 key support next.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, 33.20 is viewed as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27. Such rise might have completed at 87.15 already, ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Break of 69.50 support will break the series of higher low pattern from 33.2 and will be an important indication that the trend has reversed. In such case, we'll turn bearish on crude oil and expect the then down trend to target a new low below 33.2.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Systemic Risk in the Market

From guest blogger Jonas Miller at
Ticker House.Com....

There will be no charts this week. There will be no picks or guidance on commodities. There will only be this. I have voiced my concerns over the interconnectivity of the global financial marketplace for quite some time. On Thursday, we were reminded again that a system so complex and interconnected is doomed to fail at times. Even worse when they are interconnected yet following different rules, guidelines and requirements for trading the same securities and/or vehicles.

My friend who knows nothing about stocks or commodities told me has shares of UCO and GLD because he hears that commodities are a good investment. This shouldn’t happen! With the invention of ETF’s and ETN’s the market has not only exponentially increased its complexity but has increased the danger of market crashes by allowing participants who have no business trading in certain markets access without the cost of risk associated with it. The risk is thereby transferred throughout the system for the simple purpose of transactions…

I was supposed to write some stories on the moves last week. But after reading Barron’s, The Financial Times and the Economist over the weekend and today, I’d be repeating what has already been said. A couple weeks back I posted a small blurb about the systemic risk in the market place caused by ETF’s. In what world does an ETF gain 230% intraday (Think SKF and SRS during the peak of crisis)? Levered ETF’s just exacerbate the problem further by using swaps and futures to gain the 200% move of the underlying holdings. I also warned that an un-orderly mass liquidation of global assets will freeze the financial system solid! And it will…Thursday my fears were confirmed!

Last week’s hellish moves shouldn’t have happened! There is no reason for One Trillion dollars of market value be “taken” from the system for any reason let alone a computer glitch, human error or the combination of them both. One has to wonder if this is what occurred on late 2008. It felt the same at the open, it felt the same right before the crash and it occurred almost the same way. I was short via calls on the VIX and the VIX rallied over 90% last-week. I also voiced my concerns about the complacency in the marketplace and that for the VIX to trade under $20 is simply a mispricing of risk in the system that will correct….and it did!

I am a bit concerned about the state of the global markets right now. That goes for all of them. Equities, currencies, commodities and everything else because they are ALL connected somehow. It wasn’t until the point was raised that Greece might have as much systemic risk (in terms of the complexity not size) as the Lehman failure in 2008 that the EU finally gave in to bailing out Greece and any other Euro zone member who may need funding to avoid default and ponied up a cool Trill to do it! Fact is the bailout will not work…the math isn’t there and regardless of what they may think it will be much harder to shake the wolves and speculators from shorting the EUR and buying CDS against their debt. The market is up 400 points today and I have no conviction whatsoever that it will hold…

Time will tell…I would like to go more into detail on the subject but unfortunately I haven’t the time, Volatility is back in the market and nimble is the word. Sell it when it is high and buy it when its low (relatively speaking).

My next few articles will be on the practice of bidding on options using the Black-Sholes model. Legging into trades. Trading the Greeks (again not those Greeks) and trading the Greeks....YES THOSE GREEKS!


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Crude Oil Declines on Concern European Debt Bailout Is Insufficient

Crude oil fell to near $76 a barrel on concern that Europe’s almost $1 trillion bailout may not be sufficient to end the region’s sovereign debt crisis. Oil pared an increase of as much as 0.8 percent earlier today after the euro dropped against the dollar and investors questioned whether the European plan will reduce deficits accumulated by Greece, Spain and Portugal. U.S. crude supplies probably rose for the 14th time in 15 weeks, reinforcing concern that demand in the world’s biggest consumer is lagging.

“The package will just buy Europe some time,” said Clarence Chu, a trader at options dealers Hudson Capital Energy in Singapore. “Portugal and Spain now have a safety net so there is less incentive for them to cut their budget deficits.” Crude oil for June delivery fell as much as 62 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $76.18 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $76.20 at 2:22 p.m. Singapore time. The contract earlier rose as much as 59 cents to $77.39. Yesterday, it gained 2.3 percent to settle at $76.80.

Leaders of the 16 European nations using the single currency agreed yesterday to lend as much as 750 billion euros ($957 billion) to the most-indebted member countries. The euro declined to $1.2727 as of 6:46 a.m. in London from $1.2787 in New York yesterday, when it reached $1.3094, the highest level since May 4.....Read the entire article.


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Where is Crude Oil Headed on Tuesday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




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Crude Oil Rallies on Crisis Relief.....Bears Still Hold The Advantage

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends last week's decline, the 87% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 72.86 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.10 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.52. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.10. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 74.51. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 72.86.

Natural gas closed higher on Monday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.123. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends today's rally, the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.438 is the next upside target. If June renews this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.502 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.235. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.438. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.855. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.502.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this month's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 85.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.19 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 85.46. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 85.85. First support is today's low crossing at 83.07. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.19.

Gold closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off February's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this year's rally, December's high crossing at 1230.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1165.30 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1214.90. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 1230.00. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1182.10. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1165.30.


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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Monday

Crude oil's strong recovery today suggests that a temporary low is formed at 74.51 and turns bias neutral. Some consolidations would probably be seen. However, strong resistance should be seen at double top neck line (80.53) and 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 80.84) to limit upside and bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 74.51 will target 69.50 key support next.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, 33.20 is viewed as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27. Such rise might have completed at 87.15 already, ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Break of 69.50 support will break the series of higher low pattern from 33.2 and will be an important indication that the trend has reversed. In such case, we'll turn bearish on crude oil and expect the then down trend to target a new low below 33.2.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Oil Rises First Time in Five Days as Europe Leaders Agree on Fund Package

Crude oil surged more than 4.5 percent in New York, its biggest jump in seven months, on speculation an emergency fund by European policy makers will contain sovereign debt risks and maintain economic growth. Oil climbed from a 12 week low on May 7 after the European Union and the International Monetary Fund agreed to a lending mechanism of about 720 billion euros ($928 billion). Prices may return to $80 to $85 a barrel once the debt crisis is resolved, Algerian Energy Minister Chakib Khelil said today.

“Europe has clearly swung the pendulum back to optimism,” said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president of energy at MF Global in New York. Crude oil for June delivery rose $1.64, or 2.2 percent, to $76.75 a barrel at 9:03 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures rose as much as $3.40 to $78.51, the biggest gain since Sept. 30. Crude has increased 31 percent in the past year.

U.S. stock index futures rallied, with the contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index touching its daily limit. June contracts on the S&P 500 Index increased 4.1 percent to 1,152.10 at 9:05 a.m. in New York after earlier reaching the limit of 1,162. The euro is heading for its biggest two day gain in more than a year, rising to $1.2913 from $1.2755 May 7 and restoring the appeal of dollar price assets as an alternative investment.

Reporter Margot Habiby can be reached at mhabiby@bloomberg.net.


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This Week's Commodity & Index ETF Trading Strategy

As we all know, last weeks stock market blip/mini crash was very emotional for those of you watching or trading it live. A lot of money changed hands last week and you either lost a bundle or made a bundle…

I did send out some charts and a video on Thursday night about the market crash/recovery if you have not seen it. It’s called “Stock Market Micro Intraday Crash Shows Us Where The Safe Havens Are”.

Below are my ETF charts for the commodities and index I actively follow and trade.

GLD – Gold Bullion ETF – Daily Chart
GLD is a great ETF to trade as it generates 10-20 quality low risk setups each year for subscribers. The chart clearly shows the large rally in late 2009 and the correction as it formed patterns moving from a down trend – base – and back to an uptrend.



$USD – US Dollar Index – Monthly Chart
This weekly chart I think shows some serious potential for gold and silver prices. The US Dollar is now trading at a key resistance level which I think it will have a tough time moving higher. The dollar has been moving up for several months and looks ready for a pullback or at least a pause. If the dollar starts to roll over in the next few months then we should see gold and silver move substantially higher.



SLV – Silver Bullion ETF – Daily Chart
Silver like gold bounced off a key support level last week as investors started to buy silver as a safe haven. Gold moved up sharply on the day of the intraday market crash while silver traded sideways for a day before joining the party. The following day investors starting buying up silver because it was lagging its big sister “yellow Gold”.



USO – Oil Fund – Daily Chart
Several weeks back I posted this chart showing how volume was drying up as oil tested resistance on declining volume. This indicated to us that once/if the price started to roll over it would trigger a sharp sell off as short term traders who bought in anticipation of a breakout to the up side sold out of their positions once support was broken. This is what caused the heavy volume and sharp price drop.



SPY – SP500 INDEX Trading ETF – Daily Chart
It’s tougher now to read the index charts as last weeks heavy volume market crash could be seen in two very different ways…

One – We are starting a correction and had a jump start with the human error of selling billions of dollars worth of investments instead of millions prematurely pushing pulling the market down to a level where I think it should/will test again before moving up.

OR
Two – This extremely heavy sell off is just the start of what is to come....

Since the government owns the largest banks and the banks are unloading/selling massive amounts of shares calling it an error how do we know it’s not a scam for them to completely short the market in anticipation for a collapse which would make them unheard of amounts of money as the market drops… It is tough to trust anyone sitting up there in those power positions after everything they have been caught for already…

I personally think we could see lower prices in the coming month then the market will bottom and we will see new highs for 2010.



Weekend Commodity & Index ETF Trading Strategy Conclusion:
Stepping back and looking at the above charts it looks as thought we could see stocks and commodities digest the recent moves. In short, gold and silver have rallied strong and now trading near resistance. Oil dropped last week and is now trading near a key support level. I feel it the market will trade sideways and stabilize before for a while as the SP500 had that crazy drop last week and now the market is in shock. I figured it would see 3-4 weeks to reach those prices yet it happened in 1 day so now the market could do very little for 3-4 weeks…

The US dollar is something we will be watching more closely because it’s trading at key resistance level. In the past it has taken a month or two for a rally to roll over and head back down. This could play out very nicely if the dollar tops and the rest of the market trends sideways to digest the recent moves. Once the dollar starts to fall it will provide fuel for the next rally in both stocks and commodities.

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The Charts Say we Aren't in a New Bear Market

From guest blogger Kevin Kiefer at Ticker House.Com

Everyone is bearish now... should you be selling after a nearly 10% correction now? I don't think so. Even if your a believer in a double dip recession and a market crash, the charts show that now is probably not the time for that. For predicting the future, we are using the S&P 500 monthly 10 year chart. Over the last 10 years, we have never entered a bear market while the MACD was positive. With this 10% correction, the RSI is now down back to 50 and the MACD is still positive.

That leads me to believe that the RSI will not break 50 and that we are exactly laying the foundation for a bottom here. Remember the 50 level on the RSI is pivot point because below 50 signals a bear market while above 50 signals a bull market. Not only are the charts saying this is not the start of a crash but the fundamentals in the US also do not support it. Last time we broke the 200 day moving average in late 2007, we were losing jobs, our banking system was reporting huge write downs and home prices were falling.

April's job report was very good with around 220,000 private sector jobs being created and March's numbers were revised upwards. Before we panic out of the market, let's wait to see what happens this week. We'll be watching the 200 day on the SPY daily chart and the RSI on the 10 year monthly SPY chart. The RSI needs to hold 50 on that chart for us to remain bullish. Below is the chart of the SPY 10 year monthly. I have circled the areas of importance.



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Natural Gas Weekly Technical Outlook

Despite edging lower to 3.855 last week, Natural gas managed to stay above 3.81 support and basically engaged in sideway trading only. The development argues that down trend might not be ready to resume yet and we'll turn neutral first. Some more consolidations could be seen above 3.81 and stronger recovery cannot be ruled out. But after all, we'd expect upside to be limited by 4.386 resistance conclude the consolidation and finally bring down trend resumption. Decisive break of 3.81 low will target 3.0 psychological level next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 2.409 has completed at 6.108 and the three wave corrective structure of the rebound argues that it's merely a correction, or part of the consolidation in the larger down trend. Current fall from 6.108 might extend further for a retest on 2.409 low next after sustaining below 61.8% retracement of 2.409 to 6.108 at 3.822. Sustained trading above 4.386 resistance is needed to be the first sign that the trend in natural gas has reversed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, while the bounce from 2.409 was strong, it's been limited below 55 months EMA (now at 6.035) and reversed. The failure to sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 4.730) also argue that 2.409 might not be the bottom yet. We'll stay bearish as long as this year's high of 6.108 holds and favor a new low below 2.409 going forward.




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Phil Flynn: Could A Big Trading Error Save The Stock Market?

Was it real or was it all just a dream? Someone might say we were living in a dream or maybe it was more of a nightmare. Fat fingers and Greece rioters set up one of the most jaw dropping and surreal days in market history.

With Europe embroiled in economic and political turmoil as riot police faced protesters assembling near the Greek Parliament after passing an austerity package, the market was already in panic mode. And then the bottom just fell out. In just in a short ten minute free fall the Dow dropped nearly 700 points bringing the Dow down close to 1000 points before rebounding very quickly. After the smoke settled there were rumors that a major trading error occurred that sparked the record drop leading many to question what was real and what was not. Those questions might have actually been a stabilizer for a market that obviously was not stable at all. In fact we may want to thank whoever made that error because that error may help restore some confidence and bring buyers back into the market!

What? Is he crazy? Well indeed I am but that has nothing to do with it. The reason why I say that is because prior to this alleged error the Dow was already having one of its worse days of the year. The fears surrounding Greece, while very real, were being exasperated by fear and emotion. The market started to react to live news reports of Greek protesters and started to sense that Europe was going to go up in flames. That caused the markets to go into flight to quality mode and because of someone probably hurrying to sell stocks as the market started to break while watching TV news at the same time probably made that monster error.

Yet later in the day news reports surfaced that told the world the drop was not that bad and that probably will bring back even more buyers back to the market. I guess you can call it artificial capitulation. The error sold off many stocks so far under their true value that the markets started to focus less on Greece and more on scouring the trading board for stocks that may had been undervalued. Proctor and Gamble was the stock that seems to have started the route and of course that company does a lot of business in Greece but not enough to justify anything near the value of the drop.

So the crash may have stock traders putting Greece on the back burner so that now all we have to worry about is the monthly jobs situation in the US. Oh Boy.
Of course for oil that now means the move down in was too much too soon and no one has to question whether yesterday's close in oil was real or an illusion. The close in oil was determined during the heat of the stock market battle which means technical traders may want to throw that close out and wait for today's close as a barometer of where we are going on the longer term charts! Do Over! Wait, there's no do overs in trading! Well unless they throw out trades.

Another risk to the upside in oil is the threat that the oil slick can slow oil imports. Bloomberg News reported yesterday that oil leaking from BP Plc’s damaged Gulf of Mexico well has drifted within 1.5 miles of the buoy marking the entrance to Southwest Pass, the main approach to the Port of New Orleans. Bloomberg says that Wayne Mumphrey, Secretary Treasurer of the Port of New Orleans said in an interview in New Orleans, “Once it passes the buoy, we have to start decontaminating every ship coming into the port.” Mumphrey said two floating decontamination stations have been set up near the buoy to scrub oil from the hulls of ships entering the Mississippi.

It will take 10 to 12 hours to decontaminate each ship, which will dramatically slow incoming port traffic and that may cause ships to begin backing up into the Gulf, he said. Mumphrey said a port study commissioned in the wake of a tanker spill that closed the Port of New Orleans for several days last year showed the economic impact of a total port closure on U.S. Midwestern communities from the mouth of the Mississippi to Minnesota is roughly $250 million a day. “All the grain from the Midwest ships out through the Port of New Orleans,” Mumphrey said. “It can’t get out any other way. Slowing oil imports may also give sellers some pause.


Phil can be reached at pflynn@pfgbest.com and don't forget to catch him daily on The Fox Business Network


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Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Crude oil's sharp fall last week indicates that rise from 69.50 is completed at 87.15 on a double top reversal pattern (87.05/87.15). Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to test 69.50 key support next. On the upside, above 78.19 resistance will argue that a temporary bottom is formed and bring consolidations. But we'd expect strong resistance at double top neck line (80.53) and 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 81.55) to limit upside and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, 33.20 is viewed as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27. Such rise might have completed at 87.15 already, ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Break of 69.50 support will break the series of higher low pattern from 33.2 and will be an important indication that the trend has reversed. In such case, we'll turn bearish on crude oil and expect the then down trend to target a new low below 33.2.

In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Stage is Set For Lower Crude Oil Numbers Next Week

Crude oil closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's decline, the 87% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 72.86 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.51 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.23. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.52. First support is today's low crossing at 74.51. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 72.86.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidates above trading range support crossing at 3.914. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June renews this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.502 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.119 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.119. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.438. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 3.855. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.502.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of this month's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this month's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 85.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.01 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 85.46. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 85.85. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.04. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.01.

Gold closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this year's rally, December's high crossing at 1230.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1163.20 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1214.90. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 1230.00. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1177.10. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1163.20.




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