Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Friday

Crude oil's rebound from 72.43 should have completed at 78.04 already and fall from 83.95 is resuming. Break of 72.43 low will target 68.59 support next. On the upside, above 74.50 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 78.04 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development revives the case that medium term rise from 33.2 has topped out at 83.95 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Break of 68.59 will confirm this case and target 58.32 support next. On the upside, however, above 78.04 resistance will dampen this view and argue that the medium term rise might still be in progress. Nevertheless, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to look of reversal signal as crude oil approaches 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Wednesday Morning

With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, some more sideway trading could be seen in crude oil and another recovery might be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 76.52). Nevertheless, fall fro 83.95 is still in favor to continue as long as 79.16 resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 68.59 to 83.95 at 74.46 will target a retest on 68.59 support. However, note that break of 79.16 will indicate that fall from 83.95 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, upside momentum is clearly diminishing as seen in bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. However, there is no confirmation that medium term rise has topped out yet as long as 68.59 support holds. Such medium term rise could still continue and above 83.95 will target 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. Nevertheless, even in such case, we'll continue to look for reversal signal and expect crude oil to top out finally as it approaches 90 level. On the downside, break of 68.59 support will confirm that a medium term top is in place and will turn outlook bearish for a retest on 33.2 low as correction from 147.27 resumes.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning

While downside momentum is diminsihing a bit, intraday bias is still on the downside. Crude oil's fall from 83.95 is expected to continue and sustained d break of 61.8% retracement of 68.59 to 83.95 at 74.46 will target a rest on 68.59 support. On the upside, above 76.68 resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 79.16 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, short term risk will remain on the downside.

In the bigger picture, upside momentum is clearly diminishing as seen in bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. However, there is no confirmation that medium term rise has topped out yet as long as 68.59 support holds. Such medium term rise could still continue and above 83.95 will target 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. Nevertheless, even in such case, we'll continue to look for reversal signal and expect crude oil to top out finally as it approaches 90 level. ON the downside, break of 68.59 support will confirm that a medium term top is in place and will turn outlook bearish for a retest on 33.2 low as correction from 147.27 resumes.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Monday

Crude oil dips further to 70.07 earlier today and recovers. Nevertheless, intrady bias remains on the downside and the correction from 83.95 could still extend further towards 61.8% retracement of 68.59 to 83.95 at 74.46. But downside should be contained there and bring rally resumption. On the upside, above 80.69 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 83.95 resistance first. Further break of 83.95 high will target upper trend line resistance at 87/88 level again. However, note that sustained trading below 74.46 fibo support will argue that rise from 68.59 has completed and will turn focus back to this key support level.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress but after all, there is no change in the view that it's merely a correction to fall from 147.27. Therefore, we'd continue to look for reversal signal in case of another rise and as crude oil approaches 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. On the downside, however, considering continuous bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, a break of 68.59 support will confirm that a medium term top is in place and will turn outlook bearish for a retest on 33.2 low as correction from 147.27 resumes.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Wednesday Morning

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Upside momentum in crude oil remains unconvincing with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line. Bias remains neutral for the moment and some more sideway consolidation could be seen. But still, downside should be contained by 76.19 support and bring another towards 82.0 resistance. However, a break of 76.19 will argue that rebound from 68.59 has completed and deeper fall should then be seen to 71.21 support first.

In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from put crude oil back above 55 days EMA and dampens the bearish view that it has topped out at 33.2. We'll stay neutral for the moment with focus on 82.0 resistance. Break there will indicate that whole medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Nevertheless, focus will remain on reversal signal as we'd expect such rise to conclude inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Natural gas retreats again after rising to 6.035 and continues to lose upside moment. Intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. Considering bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD, a short term top might be in place at 6.035 already. Break of 5.76 will bring deeper pull back towards 5.29 resistance turned support. On the upside, though, above 6.035 will indicate that recent rise is still in progress for 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005 and might have completed at 2.409 already. Rise from 2.409 is still in progress and should target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. On the downside, break of 4.157 support is needed to indicate that medium term rise from 2.409 has completed. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at worst even in case of deep pullback.....Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Friday Morning

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's rebound extends further and further rise could still be seen as long as 71.21 minor support holds. Nevertheless, we'd still expect upside to be limited by 61.8% retracement at 76.87 and bring resumption of the fall from 82.0. On the downside, below 71.21 will indicate that recovery from 68.58 has completed and will flip intraday bias for this support first. Break will target 65.05 key support next.

In the bigger picture, we're favoring the case that medium term rise from 33.2 has completed at 82.0 with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. The break of medium term trend line support last week affirms this case and should pave the way to 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60) for confirmation. As noted before, rise from 33.2 is treated as part of the correction pattern that started at 147.27. Firmed break of 58.32 support will argue that the down trend from 147.27 might be resuming for another low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 79.04 resistance is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Natural gas rises further to as high as 5.926 so far and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 2.409 to 5.318 from 4.157 at 5.955. Break will target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 next. On the downside, below 5.57 minor support will suggest that an intraday top is formed and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained well above 4.837 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005 and might have completed at 2.409 already. Rise from 2.409 resumes as expected after consolidations from 5.318 completed. Current rally should now be targeting 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. Break of 4.432 support is needed to indicate that natural gas has topped. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.....Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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New Video: Let’s Take a Fresh Look at Crude Oil

Today we are looking at a January crude oil contract, but this can be any of the other contract months.

We’ve looked at this market before and were expecting it to go higher. It did not, however, fulfill that promise and with a red weekly “triangle” in place, it appears as though this market is heading down, but is it?

Just click here to watch today’s short video and discover an interesting cycle that we want to share with you. This cycle along with our MACD indicator, daily and weekly “triangles” are beginning to look extremely interesting.

We strongly recommend taking a few minutes out of your day to watch this educational and informative video on crude oil.

Good trading,
Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO The Crude Oil Trader

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Friday Morning

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil fall sharply to as low as 72.39 today and the development is inline with our bearish view that fall fro 82.00 is still in progress. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 65.05 to 82 at 71.52. Sustained break there will pave the way for even deeper decline to 65.05 support next. On the upside, while some recovery might be seen, upside should be limited by 75.57 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, we'd continue to slightly favor the bearish case as long as 80.51 resistance holds. That is, a medium term top is formed at 82.0 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD as whole rise from 33.2 has completed. Break of trend line support (now at 70.60) will add more credence to this case and bring deeper fall to 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60) for confirmation. However, break of 80.51 will indicate that price actions from 82.0 are merely consolidations in the medium term rise only. Further break of 82.0 will bring medium term rise resumption. However, as we expect such rise to conclude inside resistance zone of 76.77/90.24 (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2), focus will remain on loss of momentum and reversal signal even in case of another rise.....Here is the charts!

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Natural gas retreat mildly after the rise from 4.157 was limited below 5.318 resistance. With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral again. Some more consolidations would be seen between 4.157 and 5.318. Nevertheless, note that break of 5.318 resistance will confirm that whole rally from 2.409 has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 2.409 to 5.318 from 4.157 at 5.955 next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 5.318 are merely consolidations and should have completed at 4.517 already. Rise from 2.409, which is still in progress and will likely extend to 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. Nevertheless, break of 4.157 support will indicate dampen this bullish case and turn outlook mixed.....Here is the charts!

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Daily Technical Outlook

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil turns sideway after reaching 82 level and met 100% projection of 58.32 to 75 from 65.05 at 81.72. Upside momentum is diminishing a bit but after all, further rise is still expected with 77.61 remains intact. Sustained trading above 81.72 will pave the way to next medium term fibonacci level at 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. On the downside, though, below 77.61 will indicate that a short term top is likely in place, possibly with bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Deeper decline should then be seen to 75 resistance turned support and below.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 75.0 resistance confirms that medium term rebound from 33.2 has resumed and further rally should be seen. Note that crude oil is now in an important resistance zone of 76.77/90.24 (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2). As we're expecting rise from 33.2 to conclude in this zone, we'll look for sign of loss of momentum in the current rise, as well as reversal sign. Nevertheless, note that break of 65.05 is needed to indicate that crude oil has topped out. Otherwise, further rise is still in favor.....here is the charts.

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Natural gas' retreat from 5.318 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, further rally is still in favor as long as 4.35 support holds and break of 5.318 will target 38.2% retracement of 13.64 to 2.409 at 6.7 next. However, considering bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD, break of 4.35 will indicate that a short term top is formed and deeper pull back should then be seen instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005. The whole consolidation might have completed at 2.409 after meeting 100% projection of 15.78 to 4.593 from 13.69 at 2.50. We'll prefer the bullish case as long 55 days EMA (now at 4.119 holds) and expect the current rise from 2.409 to extend further to 61.8% retracement of 13.64 to 2.409 at 9.38 in medium term.....here is the charts.

Crude Oil and Natural Gas Daily Technical Outlook For Friday Morning

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's rally extends further to as high as 78.17 before retreating mildly. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise should be seen to next target of 100% projection of 58.32 to 75 from 65.05 at 81.72 next. On the downside, below 74.57 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But downside should be contained by 71.55 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress and could extend further. Nevertheless, strong resistance should be seen in 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) to conclude the medium term rise finally. Hence, we'd look for sign of loss of momentum in the current rise. However, note that break of 65.05 is needed to indicate that crude oil has topped out. Otherwise, further rise is still in favor.

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
While consolidation from 5.12 may extend further, note that with 4.351 support intact, we'd expect to consolidation to be relatively brief and maintain the short term bullish outlook. Above 4.75 minor resistance will flip intraday bias for 5.12 first. break will bring rally resumption to 38.2% retracement of 13.64 to 2.409 at 6.7 next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 4.351 will indicate that a short term top is formed and will bring deeper pull back instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005. The whole consolidation might have completed at 2.409 after meeting 100% projection of 15.78 to 4.593 from 13.69 at 2.50. We'll prefer the bullish case as long 55 days EMA (now at 3.94 holds) and expect the current rise from 2.409 to extend further to 61.8% retracement of 13.64 to 2.409 at 9.38 in medium term.

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Crude oil retreats sharply after rising to 7.197 and hit near term trend line resistance. With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday outlook is turned neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, another rise is still mildly in favor with 68.16 support intact. Above 71.97 will bring rise resumption. Further break of 73.16 will indicate that fall from 75.0 has completed at 65.05 already. The corrective structure will in turn indicate that medium term rally is still in progress for another high above 75.0 before completion.

On the downside, below 68.16 will suggest that rebound from 65.05 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Break of 65.05 will reaffirm the original bearish view that crude oil has topped out at 75.0 already and will bring fall resumption towards 58.32 key support next. In the bigger picture, the lack of follow through selling so far dampens the bearish view that crude oil's medium term rise from 33.2 has completed at 75.0.....read the entire article and charts!

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook From ONG Focus

Break of 67.02 minor resistance indicates that an intraday low is in place at 65.05 and some consolidation could now be see. Nevertheless, recovery is expected to be limited well below 71.11 resistance an bring fall resumption. Below 65.05 will target 61.8% projection of 75.0 to 67.05 from 73.16 at 60.30 next, which is close to next psychological level of 60.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading below medium term trend line support solidifies that case that medium term rebound from 33.2, which is treated as correction whole down trend form 147.27, has completed at 75.0 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD and RSI. Further break of 58.32 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 33.2 to 75.0 at 59.03) will confirm this case and pave the way for a retest of 33.2 low. On the upside, break of 71.77 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.....Here is the charts!

Oil to Rise Above $65 After Support Holds

Crude oil may extend gains above $65 a barrel as an indicator of technical momentum suggests the market has rebounded after failing to break support levels last week, according to National Australia Bank Ltd. The Moving Average Convergence-Divergence oscillator on the weekly continuation chart is “a whisker away” from turning positive, said Gordon Manning, a Sydney based technical analyst. Technical buyers usually step in when the MACD rises above its signal line, a so called bullish crossover.....Complete Story

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Have You Missed The Move In Crude?

Have you missed the move in crude oil? Here's a quick score card on ticker DXO. You be the judge.

Feel free to leave a comment to let our readers know where you think crude is headed.

MACD
DXO is trading above its 200 minute moving average. This is considered to be the sign of a bullish trend. There is added weight to this indication because the moving average is rising and suggests that there has been buying interest in this stock.

Bollinger Bands
DXO is trading within its Bollinger Bands. This is a normal condition and suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold relative to the recent price action.

Parabolic SAR
Today, DXO closed above the trigger point for the Parabolic SAR and is currently registering a bullish signal. The current Significant Point, below which a reversal to the bearish side would occur, is 4.12.

Williams %R
According to the %R which is currently at -6.67% and above the critical level of -20, DXO may be overbought. While a stock that is overbought may continue to rally, investors should be especially careful when DXO begins to lose strength and the %R dips below -20.

Directional Movement Index
The +DI line is above the -DI line and the ADX is greater than 20. This is a bullish signal that indicates the stock is in a confirmed uptrend.

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