Wednesday, March 16, 2016

How Negative Interest Rates Will Turbocharge the Migrant Crisis

By Nick Giambruno

In the 1989 Batman movie, the Joker (played by Jack Nicholson) showers a crowded Gotham street with free money. In the scene, it looks like it’s raining hundred dollar bills. The people love it. Little do they know, the money is actually a trap. Once the Joker has lured them into the street, he unleashes poisonous gas.

I think the latest gimmick to stimulate the economy is pretty much the same thing. It’s one of the most absurd ideas I’ve heard in a while. And that’s saying something, considering the outrageous schemes our economic luminaries have recently come up with, like..…
  • Faking a space alien invasion to help stimulate the economy.
  • Minting a trillion dollar coin.
  • Negative interest rates.
  • Banning physical cash.
  • Cash for clunkers.
  • Increasing rounds of money printing, euphemistically called “quantitative easing.”
These ideas would be comical if people in power didn’t actually take them seriously. But they do. It’s the same bad medicine the economic witch doctors have been prescribing for years. With a track record like this, it’s hard to imagine they could come up with something even more ridiculous. But they have. This latest gimmick goes well beyond the absurdity of their previous ideas. It’s verifiably insane. And the scariest part is, this dangerous idea is gaining currency. It’s spreading across the world like a smallpox outbreak.

Helicopter Money

Politicians and establishment economists call this scary idea “a basic income.” I call it sheer lunacy. It’s where the government gives you money just because. There’s no requirement to work or even display a willingness to work. You could sit at home all day, watch TV, and still get a check from the government. Simply put, a basic income is “free” money the government hands out to everyone unconditionally. European politicians are heavily pushing this policy.
  • Finland wants to pay its citizens around $1,000 a month.
  • The Netherlands and the U.K. have also proposed dishing out free money.
  • In Switzerland, there’s a proposal to hand out around $2,800 a month to everyone. This one is surprising since the Swiss are generally sensible about money.
  • The basic income virus has also infected Canada, which recently announced a pilot program in Ontario.
It’s just a matter of time before the idea gains traction in the U.S. In fact, U.S. central economic planners are already discussing it. You might recall former Fed chair Ben Bernanke’s nickname, “Helicopter Ben.” He got the name after he spoke publicly about using helicopter drops of money to “stimulate” the economy. This is just another flavor of a basic income.

Whether you call it free money, a basic income, or helicopter money, the idea is spreading. It’s the next potion the economic witch doctors will use once their latest scam—negative interest rates—not only fails to cure our economic ailments, but predictably makes them worse. No matter, the idea will be politically popular. Who would protest free money?

And, once a country adopts a basic income, it would be next to impossible to get rid of it until the system collapses under its own weight. Who would vote for a politician that stops (or even slows down) the gravy train? The Joker used free money to lure the people of Gotham to poisonous gas. Now real world politicians are using the same trick. They’re using free money to lure the masses into perpetual dependence on government.

More Problems Ahead for Europe

If Europeans think they have a migrant problem now, just wait until they institute a basic income. It’s obvious what will happen….Once European governments start handing every person thousands of dollars in free money each month (more than many in Africa make in a year), everyone will be scrambling for Europe.

A basic income is a sure recipe for economic disaster and increased cultural tensions. It’s an environment where blowhards and demagogues flourish. Unfortunately, this has happened repeatedly throughout Europe’s history. Once again, it’s going to lead to some very bad things.

I think a basic income will greatly accelerate this recurring trend.

Without a basic income and other welfare benefits, immigrants are usually skilled and the very best of people. But the average European will surely forget that once free money draws in the world’s riffraff. This is why, although the financial effects will be severe, the sociopolitical ones will be much worse.

Here’s the bottom line: All you can do is protect yourself from the consequences of all this stupidity. This is a big reason why I think everyone should own some gold. Gold is the ultimate form of wealth insurance. It’s preserved wealth for thousands of years through every kind of crisis imaginable. It will preserve wealth during the next crisis, too.

Unfortunately, most people have no idea how to prepare for the next economic collapse…..

How will you protect your savings in the event of a crisis? This just released video will show you exactly how. Click here to watch it now.




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Saturday, March 12, 2016

Four Trading Strategies That Work

If you have been following us this year you already know that our trading partner Chris Vermeulen has been spot on in 2016 and has helped our readers make profitable trade after profitable trade this year. We have followed and worked with many traders over the years so we know what trading information is useful and what is just junk information.

Chris' connects with most readers through his complimentary stock trading and education newsletter which includes simple trading strategies to use with stocks, options, futures or forex.

Get Chris' newsletter "The Four Trading Strategies That Work" right HERE!

We hope you enjoy the free content and learning from some new tips and tricks for your own trading toolbox. To further add value Chris has put together a way for you to learn some of his trading strategies which cover stocks, options, futures and forex.

Bookmark this link since you can only select one free trading strategy at a time when you optin to the form on this special webpage below. But I should note, if you want a second or third strategy you just need to revisit the optin page, optin, and select another strategy.

These strategies are only available for a couple days then Chris takes them down so click the link below and optin to be presented with the four trading strategies.

Click here to get the free "Four Trading Strategies That Work"


See you in the markets.
Ray C. Parrish
aka the Crude Oil Trader



Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Friday, March 11, 2016

Join us for Private Training and Live Trading Sessions with John Carter

It’s no secret that most traders are getting wrecked by this year’s volatile market conditions, but not John Carter. Just this week he proved once again that his safe and simple option setups are crushing it. He texted his traders a live trade on TSLA that pulled in $42,750 in just 90 minutes. And consider this, his account was already up over $101,000 this year. Clearly he’s doing something right.

What’s his secret? It's the extremely powerful option setups he’s refined over 25 years. It’s simple, really High leverage, limited risk, precise timing and it's all equals explosive profits. I’m telling you this because John’s doing a private online training tomorrow and there are a few spots left. And if you hurry, you might still be able to attend his live trading sessions next week. This class is not open to the public and space is limited.

Click Here to Claim Your Spot

Why all the buzz about John’s high profile trades that ended with astonishing gains? Here's why......

  *  Turning $3,300 into $119,202 in GOOGL

  *  Turning $6,600 into $36,450 in AMZN

  *  And making $1 million in ONE day on TSLA

If you can still get in, this training is a rare opportunity for you to learn from a very successful trader who is 100% transparent and loves to teach others how to succeed. I highly recommend you check this out, even if you are a newer trader with limited capital. His training is easy to understand and a lot of fun, too.

Get the Whole Story Here

See you in the markets,
Ray C. Parrish
aka the Crude Oil Trader


Get John's latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!




Monday, March 7, 2016

Never Get Crushed by Volatility Again, How to Safely Use Volatility to Make Extreme Gains



Did you catch John Carter’s webinar the other night? It was all about how to safely make extreme profits, even in volatile market conditions. If you didn’t make it, then you really missed out and here’s why. As promised, John revealed the setups he used recently to turn $3,300 into $119k in just 3 weeks on GOOGL and a million dollars in one day on TSLA.

No doubt those are astounding case studies. But this simple ‘bread and butter’ trade is what got everyone’s full attention. Right after John started his presentation he put on a live trade following one of his simple setups. As the webinar continued, John calmly managed the trade while he explained in detail how he’s been able to rack up more than 48% gains already this year.

Let’s just say that John proved that he’s cracked the code and is beating Wall Street institutions at their own game. He spelled out how he’s able to get on the right side of this volatility again and again. Everything was super easy to understand, and even newer traders should be able to take advantage of these simple setups.

Just before John wrapped up the webinar, he sold the last of his position with more than $500 in gains. Like he said, not every trade is a winner, but seeing him put real money on the line for thousands of attendees to see was pretty impressive. Listen, you’ve really got to see what John’s doing for yourself.

Most traders are getting wrecked right now with all this volatility, but John’s adapted the setups he’s refined over 25 years to take advantage of these crazy conditions. The good news is that you now have a second chance. By popular demand, next Tuesday March 8th John’s doing an encore webinar on how he is pin pointing these major reversals in advance for such massive gains.

Click Here to Register

You do not want to miss this!

From now on, you won’t fear volatility… It could become your best friend!

See you in the markets,
Ray C. Parrish
aka the Crude Oil Trader

P.S. If you’re a newer trader with a smaller account, John’s simple setups are especially powerful. Find out how it’s possible to pinpoint major market reversals in advance and safely rack up massive gains while strictly limiting risk.

Click Here to Register Now



Get John's latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!


Sunday, March 6, 2016

Hillary’s Scary New Cash Tax

By Justin Spittler

Have you heard of “negative interest rates?” It’s become a phenomenon with economists and the media. There’s a good chance you’ve read an article about it. We’ve covered it many times in the DispatchI’m writing to tell you something about negative interest rates you haven’t heard. You certainly won’t hear about it in the mainstream press.

What’s coming at you is a historic event. It’s something our grandchildren will hear stories about...much like the Great Depression or the Cold War. What’s coming could send the price of gold much higher in the coming years...and hand gold stock owners 500%+ gains. If you know what’s coming, it could mean the difference between having lots of free cash in retirement or barely getting by.

To understand the gravity of this moment, let’s cover one of the most bizarre ideas in the world...Negative Interest Rates. In a normal world, your bank pays you interest on your savings. It takes your money, pools it with other people’s money, and loans it out. The bank makes money by paying out less in interest on your deposit than it earns in interest from borrowers.

For example, it might pay out 3% to depositors while earning 6% from borrowers. This is how it has worked for decades. Negative interest rates turn your “normal” bank account upside down. Negative interest rates could only exist in a crazy world where idiot politicians are in control. Unfortunately, that’s just what we’re dealing with right now. Politicians all over the world are ordering banks to charge depositors (you) a fee for storing cash.

It’s a perversion of saving. It’s a perversion of capitalism. It’s a perversion of planning for the future.
And it’s going to result in disaster. Politicians think that by making it unattractive for you to keep money in the bank, you’ll save less money. Instead, you’ll spend more money on things like smartphones and cars. You’ll invest in things like stocks and real estate. This would “stimulate” the economy.

This thinking is very, very wrong. No matter what the government does, it can’t force you to spend money. It can’t force you to make investments if you don’t see good opportunities. Forcing people to pay banks to hold their money is a tax. It is wealth confiscation for the digital age.

The government and the mainstream press won’t dare call it a tax. But that’s exactly what it is. A negative interest rate policy is a tax. Any time you hear a politician, central banker, or news anchor say “negative interest rates,” just think “TAX.” Think “TAX ON MY CASH”. I’ll say it again: Negative interest rates are going to result in financial disaster.

The coming disaster will wipe out many people. But you don’t have to be one them. I’ll explain how you can sidestep this disaster—and even make a lot of money as a result of it—in a moment. But let’s quickly cover one more thing about negative interest rates.

The Ugly Twin Sister of Negative Interest Rates

If the government makes it unattractive for you to keep cash in the bank, you can pull cash out of the bank. You can simply store it in a safe or under the mattress. Politicians know this. That’s why they’ve created another dangerous policy that works hand-in-glove with negative interest rates. That policy is banning cash.
You see, if you pull your money out of the banking system and stuff it under the mattress, you aren’t doing what the government wants you to do.

You’re not spending money or investing in stocks. This is a major reason why governments are banning large cash transactions and large denomination bills.

They are fighting a War on "Cash". In just the past few years…

  • Spain banned cash transactions over 2,500 euros
  • Italy banned cash transactions over 1,000 euros
  • France banned cash transactions over 1,000 euros, down from the previous limit of 3,000 euros

And just a few weeks ago, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers called for a ban on the $100 bill!
Historians aren’t surprised by Summers’ idea. Franklin Delano Roosevelt banned $500 and $1,000 bills in the 1930s. You can bet that Big Government types like Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will do the same thing in a financial emergency.

By making it so difficult (or illegal) to buy and sell things with cash, the government wants to force people into the banking system. That way it can monitor us and coerce us into whatever it wants...like pay outrageous new taxes.

It’s all a dream come true for government central planners.

The governments say these new currency laws are for fighting terrorism, money laundering, and drugs.
But the ultimate goal is control of society…and to confiscate the wealth of private citizensAs congressman Ron Paul said, “The cashless society is the IRS’s dream: total knowledge of, and control over, the finances of every single American.”

Whether you agree with these regulations or not, the conclusion is obvious. By driving us more and more towards trackable digital payments, the government has made it much, much easier to confiscate our wealth. We’re like sheep that have been “herded” into a corral, ready for shearing. And Hillary Clinton (and her Big Government cronies) is holding the clippers. However, you don’t have to be sheared. You can avoid the shearing by learning how to navigate what will become the largest underground currency market in history.

Hillary Doesn’t Want Your Gold. She Wants Your Cash

On April 5th, 1933, president Franklin Delano Roosevelt issued one of the most controversial orders in U.S. history. It went by the name “Executive Order 6102” Not one American in 1,000 knows about this order. But to this day, many experts consider it to be one of the most destructive acts in U.S. history. It violated sacred principles held by our founding fathers. It impoverished millions and confiscated the savings of honest, hardworking Americans.

Executive Order 6102 made it illegal for private citizens to own gold. Citizens were ordered to turn in their gold to the government. Why would the government confiscate the wealth of private citizens? You can fill a book on the history surrounding Executive Order 6102. But in a nutshell, it was the act of a desperate government in the midst of a financial crisis. The government wanted the gold in order to increase the nation’s money supply. It believed an increase in the money supply would revive the struggling economy.

Please review those last two paragraphs.....

An increase in the money supply...a struggling economy...a desperate government. Sound similar to what is happening right now? Since the answer to that question is “YES,” we have to ask another question. Could such a confiscation happen again?

As the crisis develops, our deeply indebted government will act like a giant wounded beast, lashing out in all directions. It will grow more desperate for control. It will grow desperate for money. And just like FDR did in the 1930s, it will confiscate the wealth of private citizens. But Hillary Clinton (or Donald Trump, or whoever wins the election) won’t go after your gold. Nowadays, the gold market is very small compared to the overall economy.

Going after gold would be too much work for the government. The government is going to go after YOUR CASH. It will regulate your cash. It will tax your cash. It will take your cash. This has all kinds of implications for banking and the economy.

But here’s the most important thing you need to know as an investor. Negative interest rates and their partner, the War on Cash, will create a renewed interest in gold. This could cause gold to double or even triple in valueEven children know what the government is doing is crazy. And people aren’t going to take this lying down.

Rather than participate in the government’s mgovernment, onetary farce, people will go underground. They will pull cash out of banks and hoard it in safe places. And they will seek the safety, anonymity, and reliability of gold and silver. Gold and silver have served as money for centuries. Gold is the ultimate currency because it doesn’t rot or corrode...it is durable…easily divisible...portable...has intrinsic value…is consistent around the world...and it cannot be created from thin air. It cannot be debased by the government.

By enforcing negative interest rates and fighting a War on Cash, the government will create a huge underground currency market. And the ultimate underground currency will be gold and its sister metal, silver. Gold is trading for around $1,260 an ounce right now. As the government blunders into a negative interest rate disaster, gold will likely rise 50%...100%...possibly even 200% higher. There’s an underground currency market coming to your neighborhood.

If you own enough gold, you’ll be its king.
If you don’t yet own gold, buy it now.
If you own a lot of gold, buy more.

Regards,
Brian Hunt

Editor’s Note: Brian just alerted readers to an extremely rare opportunity in the gold market…one that could lead to 500%+ gains in a short period. This situation has only occurred a handful of times in the last 20 years. But every time it occurs, some investors see gains as large as 1,700%, 4,300%, and 5,000%.

If you’re interested in this idea, please act now. With gold prices surging, the window of opportunity won’t be open long. And once it closes, we likely won’t get another one for years. Read more here. The article Hillary’s Scary New Cash Tax was originally published at caseyresearch.com.


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Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Thursday, March 3, 2016

The Secret Behind the $1 Million Option Setup....Here’s Your Private Replay (expires soon)

If you missed John Carter’s special training Tuesday night then you are in luck. The limited replay is online now.

Watch the Private Replay Here [Expires soon] 

Get ready to take notes! Unfortunately, I have no idea how long this replay will be up, so watch it while you can. But I can tell you the feedback from those who attended live is beyond awesome. This was not just another ‘webinar’ featuring ‘hypothetical results’.

John detailed, step by step, how to be consistently profitable in these volatile conditions using just a handful of very simple options setups. There was ZERO hype and total transparency. He showed actual trading accounts with winning AND losing trades for all to see. You gotta see this for yourself.

Here’s just some of what John revealed....

  •   Why extreme volatility is the new normal. If you don’t want to crash and burn, you MUST adapt
  •   The setup John used to turn $3k into $119k in just 3 weeks (and how to spot these rare, explosive moves)
  • The simple signal that allowed John to make $1 million in a single day on TSLA options
  • How to pinpoint major reversals in advance by legally ‘spying’ on Wall Street Insiders
  • The publically available intel that allowed John to catch the Nasdaq’s historic January collapse, AND then get long for the February rally
  • The braindead simple option system that turns crazy market volatility into potentially giant gains (sometimes literally overnight , with strictly limited risk)
  • How it’s possible to consistently pull in $100 to $1000 a day by trading from your smart phone (even if you have a job)

Like I said, you don’t want to miss this training. John’s refined these simple strategies over more than 25 years. He shows you what’s really working now and the account killing mistakes that you want to avoid like the plague.

Watch the Limited Replay Now

See you in the markets!
Ray C. Parrish
aka the Crude Oil Trader


Get John's latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!

Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Will Your Favorite Oil Company Go Bankrupt?

By Justin Spittler

Oil companies are getting desperate. If you’ve been reading the Dispatch, you know oil is in a horrible bear market. The price of oil has crashed 69% since June 2014. Last month, oil hit its lowest price since 2003.

The world has too much oil..…
For years, many folks thought the world was running out of oil. The price of oil soared more than 1,200% from 1998 to 2008. The “Peak Oil” crowd saw this as proof that oil production was in terminal decline. They were very wrong. “Peak Oil” believers failed to understand that high prices would create huge incentives to develop new ways to produce oil. Oil companies developed new methods like “fracking” to unlock billions of barrels of oil that were once impossible to reach. U.S. oil production has nearly doubled over the last decade. Last year, it hit its highest level since the 1970s. World oil production levels are also near record highs.

The world isn’t consuming oil fast enough..…
The global economy produces about 1.7 million more barrels a day than it needs. With U.S. oil reserves at their highest level since the Great Depression, companies are running out of places to store the extra oil. To deal with the surplus, companies have started storing oil on tankers floating at sea and in empty railcars. Other companies are selling barrels at huge discounts just to get rid of them.

Low oil prices have hammered major oil companies..…
The world’s five biggest oil companies—Exxon (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Total S.A. (TOT), BP (BP), and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A)—have fallen an average 34% since June 2014. Oil services companies, which supply “picks and shovels” to the oil industry, have crashed, too. Schlumberger (SLB), the world’s largest oil services company, has plunged 36% since 2014. Halliburton (HAL), the world’s second biggest, has plunged 53%.

Oil companies have cut spending to the bone..…
Companies have walked away from billion dollar projects. They’ve sold pieces of their businesses. As Dispatch readers know, some have even cut their prized dividends. The industry has laid off more than 250,000 workers since oil prices peaked. Last year, oil and gas companies cut spending by 22%. Reuters reports that the industry could cut spending another 12% this year.

On Thursday, Halliburton laid off 5,000 workers..…
It’s now laid off 29,000 workers, more than a quarter of its workforce, since 2014. Like most companies in the oil business, Halliburton is struggling. Its sales have fallen four straight quarters. Last year, the company lost $671 million, its first annual loss since 2004. The latest round of layoffs suggests Halliburton doesn’t expect business to pick up anytime soon.

The oil market is cyclical..…
It goes through big booms and busts. Right now, it’s going through its worst bust in decades. Eventually, the oil market will boom again. After all, the world needs oil. Companies that survive this bust should deliver huge gains during the next boom. If you can buy great oil companies near the bottom, you could set yourself up for huge gains when the next boom comes. So…is this the bottom?

According to The Wall Street Journal, one third of U.S. oil producers could go bankrupt this year. To be profitable, many companies would need the price of oil to get back up $50. With oil at $32.84 a barrel on Friday, those companies are in trouble. We expect a wave of bankruptcies to rip across the oil industry. This would likely trigger another leg down in oil stocks. So we’re not ready to buy oil stocks yet.

Instead, we recommend “stalking” your favorite oil companies..…
Nick Giambruno, editor of Crisis Investing, just added a world-class oil company to his watch list.
If you don’t know Nick, his specialty is buying beaten-down assets during a crisis. Most investors run away from crisis. But if you can keep your head and buy when everyone else is panicking, you can often pick up a dollar’s worth of assets for a dime or less.

Shale oil stocks are in crisis today. Even the largest shale companies have been obliterated. Major shale oil producer Apache (APA) has plunged 51% since June 2014. Anadarko (APC), another larger shale company, has plummeted 65%. Shale oil is more expensive to extract than conventional oil. And at today’s prices, most shale oil projects can’t make money.

Many shale companies borrowed too much money during oil’s boom times. Now that oil is in a bust, they can’t generate the cash flow to pay back their debts. Last month, investment bank Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. warned that half of all U.S. shale oil producers could go bankrupt before oil prices recover. To survive, these companies would need the price of oil to more than double.

Nick has found a shale company unaffected by these problems. It’s a world-class shale oil company that has virtually no risk of going bankrupt. However, its stock has gotten extremely cheap along with all other shale oil stocks. Nick says this company has “trophy assets in the major U.S. shale basins. It has a solid balance sheet.

And, unlike many of its peers, it didn’t over leverage itself during the last boom.” The company also has the industry’s highest profit margins. Nick plans to buy this company at once in a generation prices. He will tell Crisis Investing readers when it’s time to pull the trigger.

In the meantime, Nick is investing in Cuba..…
As you may know, the U.S. has had a trade embargo against Cuba since 1962. The embargo bans all trade, making it illegal for Americans to invest in Cuba. But that could soon change. About a year ago, Cuba and the U.S. announced they were working to repair diplomatic and economic relations. In August, the two countries reopened their embassies in each other’s capitals. President Obama is going to Cuba next month. He will be the first sitting president to visit Cuba since Calvin Coolidge in 1928.

Nick thinks the embargo could soon “become a page in the history books”..…
The end of the embargo will create the “potential for enormous profits,” as Nick explained in Crisis Investing.
When the embargo goes away, American tourism to Cuba will explode. The International Monetary Fund estimates there could be up to 10 million visits from Americans every year as soon as the embargo comes down.
Today, it’s still illegal to invest in Cuba. But Nick has a “back door” way to profit from the opening up of Cuba’s economy. Nick’s investment in Cuba legally trades on the NASDAQ stock exchange. It should deliver huge gains when the embargo is lifted…which may happen very soon. You can get in on Nick’s Cuba investment by signing up for Crisis Investing. You’ll also learn about the world class shale oil company on Nick’s watch list. Click here to begin your risk-free trial.

Chart of the Day

Shale oil stocks have been decimated. Today’s chart shows the performance of the Market Vectors Unconventional Oil & Gas ETF (FRAK). This fund tracks 50 companies involved in the shale oil and gas industries. FRAK has crashed 65% since June 2014. Last month, it hit an all-time low. As we mentioned, most shale oil companies simply can’t make money right now.



The article Will Your Favorite Oil Company Go Bankrupt? was originally published at caseyresearch.com.


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Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Monday, February 29, 2016

How to Spot Big Market Reversals in Advance and Beat Wall Street Silly

Thinking about living a ‘dream lifestyle’ is tough for a lot of traders right now, because they’re getting their faces ripped off. And there’s no doubt, these conditions are some of the craziest that we’ve ever seen. Stocks were down 9% in January, that’s the worst market performance in history.

Predictably, some expected the world to end and loaded up on the short side. Of course, then the market reversed in February and is already up 1.4%. Take a look at the Nasdaq roller coaster that traders just rode for nasty losses or pretty awesome gains.

Nasdaq Daily


It’s clear that the bulls got destroyed in January, and then bears gave back all of their profits and then some in February. In other words, both sides got creamed. Classic Wall Street shenanigans, right? In case you were wondering, the markets are designed to deliver maximum pain to the most traders possible. How would you like to turn the tables and finally beat those guys at their own game?

Well, on Tuesday, March 1st at 7pm Central, John Carter is going to show you why his account is up 48% already this year.

For starters, he’ll show you the signal that told him to get short the NQ on the way down, and then buy for the ride back up. As you can imagine, spotting those kinds of reversals in advance would give you an almost unfair advantage. Well, it’s easier than you think and you don’t have to be a psychic. What John is doing isn’t magic. He is just trading simple setups that have passed the test of time.

If you’re getting your clock cleaned by this volatility, we can all relate. It took John years to figure this stuff out. If you join him this Tuesday, March 1st at 7 pm Central, he’ll show you how to use a simple indicator to spot major reversals and piggyback your trades on what the biggest Wall Street institutions are doing. He’ll cover that and a whole lot more.

And let’s take advantage of this "once in a decade" volatility. The next twelve months could offer the best opportunity to rapidly grow your accounts since the 2008 crash. Don’t buy into the myth that volatility automatically means high risk. John will show you how to strictly manage risk and still position your account for major gains.

Put this special webinar on your calendar....Sign Up Right Here!

See you Tuesday.
Ray C. Parrish
aka the Crude Oil Trader

P.S.   John gave us a video primer earlier in the week......Watch That Here



Get John's latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Sunday, February 28, 2016

Here’s Why Nobody Understands the Markets

By Jared Dillian

I used to be a big astronomy nerd when I was a kid, locked up in my room, reading space books. I actually was once interested in planetary science. Now I study finance. How depraved. Nassim Taleb is right—finance actually is depraved. If you study finance, you study money, of course. But why is money interesting?  Because it doesn’t sit around in static piles that you shuffle and count. It can grow asymptotically, or else simply disappear.

This is true not just of stocks and bonds, but also of currencies, which are supposed to be worth something, and even commodities, which are really supposed to be worth something. Then you have gold, which is totally useless from a practical standpoint and whose value fluctuates dramatically.

Funny thing about money exploding or disappearing is that it’s so hard to understand that we hire physicists to figure it out.  And then they come up with these really mundane solutions, like an options pricing model that doesn’t work, or a way to forecast future volatility (that also doesn’t work).  None of this ever comes close to figuring out why money explodes or disappears.

Human Behavior is Unquantifiable

The reason we aren’t any closer to the answer is because we keep using the wrong methods.  You can get the math geeks to come up with equations to describe human behavior, but then human behavior changes or does something new, and you are back to square one. The study of money is the study of people, and people behave in sometimes predictable, but often unpredictable ways. Just when you think you have a rubric (like Nate Silver with elections, a related field), along comes a Trump who blows apart the whole model.

I’ve always felt that finance is a very qualitative discipline. You are no worse off hiring English or history majors. It’s no accident that all the heavy hitters in this business are also really great writers. The quants are starting to catch on, and a lot of the algorithmic traders are writing programs to mimic and predict human behavior… though it’s really just technical analysis and trend following in a computer program. Technical analysis has an uneven reputation, but when you can quantify and backtest it and it works, the reputation gets markedly better.

Hard to argue nowadays that even weak-form EMH holds when you have a cottage industry of very profitable systematic strategies. Of course, there is a lot of math behind the quant stuff, and the guys doing it are mathematical geniuses, but the best of them are also very sharp market folks with a nose for when trades start to get crowded.  The quant blowup of 2007 happened because all the smart quants were in all the same ideas. So even in the world of high level mathematics, you still have to deal with unquantifiable stuff: human behavior.

When someone like hedge fund manager Bill Ackman sees his portfolio get slaughtered by about 20% in 2015 and then double digits in the first month of 2016, that’s not just bad stock picking. This is what happens when crowded trades become un-crowded. Computers may be computers, but the people who program the computers are just human and utterly fallible.

Why I Believe in Behavioral Finance 

When I taught my college finance class last semester, I’d say the most consensus long among the students was Disney (DIS) because of Star Wars.

Here’s Why Nobody Understands the Markets

Of course, I had been doing a bunch of work on the short side for months.

Disney has some serious problems like declines in sports viewing and superhero movies and cable industry trends—secular stuff that’s completely out of their control.  Suffice it to say that by the time the MBA students in South Carolina get bulled up on a stock, it is probably pretty close to the end.

That’s behavioral finance in a nutshell.

This is what I do for a living. I watch the market, not the stocks, if that makes any sense. I am always collecting data. Every person I talk to on the phone, every chart I look at, every tweet or article I read, it all goes into the soup, and from that soup, I am trying to gauge sentiment. Sentiment tells you everything. Cheap things get cheap, and expensive things get more expensive. Markets are alternately rational and irrational because people are alternately rational and irrational. Seems like a crazy way to allocate resources, but it works better than all the alternatives. If you want to read more about my investment process, you can choose between the monthly version or the daily.

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The article Here’s Why Nobody Understands the Markets was originally published at mauldineconomics.com.


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