Crude Oil Oversold, Is The Short Term Low In?

March crude oil closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. If March renews this month's decline, psychological support crossing at 30.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 40.46 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 48.59 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 38.19. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 40.45. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 33.55. Second support is psychological support crossing at 30.00.

Transocean Profits Fall, China To Prop Up Russia With Loan

"Oil Falls Below $35 as Deepening Recession Slows Global Demand for Fuels"
Crude oil fell below $35 a barrel in New York on speculation a deepening recession in the U.S., Europe and Asia will reduce fuel demand....Complete Story

"Transocean's Profit Falls as Tumbling Energy Prices Reduce Value of Rigs"
Transocean, the world’s largest offshore oil driller, said quarterly profit fell for the first time in more than two years after tumbling energy prices cut the value of some rigs and well-management services....Complete Story

"Eyes on Saudis As OPEC Weighs Output Cuts"
As OPEC ponders its next move at its March 15 meeting, analysts said the scope for further output cuts by the Saudis may be limited by domestic energy needs for natural gas to cool the desert kingdom as spring approaches....Complete Story

"Russia, China Ink $25B Oil Loan Deal"
Russia signed its biggest ever energy deal with China on Tuesday, under which its oil companies will receive $25 billion in loans in exchange for long-term crude supplies....Complete Story

IEA, Exxon and Russia All Eye The Future Of Oil Inventory

"IEA Chief Urges OPEC Against More Output Cuts"
The International Energy Agency on Monday urged OPEC nations against cutting oil production further when they meet next month....Complete Story

"ExxonMobil To Carry On Spending Despite Oil Price"
U.S. oil giant Exxon Mobil Corp will not cut back on investments in new crude production, despite the collapse in oil prices, the company's regional head of exploration said on Monday....Complete Story

"Russia Studies Large Crude Inventory"
Russia is working towards creating a state reserve to buy crude from producers when prices are low, potentially removing up to 16 million tonnes of Russian oil from export markets....Complete Story

NYMEX Trading and Processing Schedule

Monday February 16, 2008 (President's Day)

* NYMEX and COMEX trading floors will be closed.
* The DME intraday settlement price (OSP) to be published at the normal
time of 3:30 AM for February 16 calendar date. No post-close
settlement to be published.
* NYMEX and COMEX products on CME Globex and NYMEX ClearPort (including
DME Direct) will open for trading/trade submission for the February 19
trade date until the trading halt at 5:15 PM.
* Day/session orders entered on CME Globex or DME Direct will be for the
February 17 trade date and will continue until Tuesday's close at
5:15 PM.
* NYMEX trading at settlement (TAS) products on CME Globex will be
available for trading for the February 17 trade date.
* NYMEX TMS will be available for trade management for February 19 trade
date.
* NYMEX cleared trades API will be available.
* Markets will not be settled and settlements will not be published, as
February 16 is not a trade or processing date.
* NYMEX intraday files will not be produced, no clearing will occur, and
no clearing functionality will be available.
* Daily SPAN and erosion files will not be produced (an additional
erosion file will be produced on February 17).
* Options cannot be exercised.
* There will not be any allocation of energy and metal deliveries or
delivery notices, and related forms will not be accepted.
* The first normal intraday file generated on calendar date February 17
will contain trades from calendar date February 16.
* NYMEX and COMEX products on CME Globex and NYMEX ClearPort (including
DME Direct) all reopen for trading/trade submission at 6:00 PM
(February 19 Trade Date).


Tuesday February 17, 2008

* Normal schedule resumes.
* Banking for February 15th clearing cycle will occur.
* Large trader reporting for NYMEX and COMEX for February 15th trade date
for any clearing members not holding DME positions are due by 8:00 AM.
* "Double Erosion" will occur to account for the February 18 Peak Day.
Two erosion files will be produced.

Crude Oil Futures Price Updates

Just click on the graph to enlarge......

Crude Oil Closes Higher But Remains Bearish Near Term

March crude oil closed sharply higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends this week's decline psychological support crossing at $30.00 is the next downside target.

The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $40.82 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at $48.59 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at $38.67.

Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $40.82.

First support is Thursday's low crossing at $33.55.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $30.00.

IEA Projects Higher Oil Prices On Projected OPEC Cuts

"New OPEC Cut Would Push Oil Prices Higher-IEA"
If OPEC decides to cut oil production levels again at its March meeting, that would further tighten global petroleum supplies and put upward pressure on oil prices, the head of the International Energy Agency said on Friday. "Our current projection suggests that (world oil supplies are) tightening, and a further (OPEC) cut.....Complete Story

"Crude Oil Surges on Speculation Plunge Earlier This Week Was Unjustified"
Crude oil rose the most in three weeks on speculation that a 9.6 percent drop in prices this week was larger than justified as governments implement stimulus programs....Complete Story

"Norwegian Oil Firm Goes to Energy's Last Frontier"
A Norwegian oil company has gone to the ends of the earth to get at some of the world's last untapped energy resources....Complete Story

"OPEC Members Carry Out 65% of Production Cuts So Far"
Members of OPEC have implemented nearly two-thirds of the production cuts of 4.2 million barrels per day that they agreed to last September, an OPEC report showed Friday....Complete Story

Crude Oil Slightly Higher Overnight On Short Covering

March crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends the decline, psychological support crossing at $30.00 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $40.66 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at $48.59 are needed to confirm that a trend change has taken place.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at $38.36.

Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $40.66.

First support is Thursday's low crossing at $33.55.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $30.00.

Crude Oil Remains Oversold, Signals Bearish Prices Near Term

March crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline and closed below psychological support crossing at $35.00.

If March extends this week's decline psychological support crossing at $30.00 is the next downside target.

The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $41.14 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at $48.59 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at $39.12.

Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $41.14.

First support is today's low crossing at $33.85.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $30.00.

Total Beats Estimates and Eni Sells Livorno Refinery

"Total Beats Profit Estimates, Will Maintain Investment Spending in 2009"
Total SA, Europe’s third largest oil company, reported fourth quarter earnings that beat analyst estimates and pledged to maintain investment spending at a similar level to last year to revive production growth....Complete Story

"Api Said to Join Investors in Offering to Buy Eni's Livornro Oil Refinery"
Anonima Petroli Italiana SpA, an Italian gas station company, together with a group of investors, has made an offer to buy an Eni SpA refinery in Livorno, Italy, said Enrico Risaliti, a businessman who is part of the bid....Complete Story

"Unconventional Gas Boosts Outlook for Future Supply"
CERA has augmented its expectations for North American gas supply in the wake of successful unconventional gas production....Complete Story

"Shell Declares Force Majeure on Nigeria Bonny Oil"
Royal Dutch Shell declared force majeure on its Nigerian Bonny oil shipments due to insecurity in the Niger Delta....Complete Story

Crude Oil Testing First Support At $35.18

March crude oil was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline below December's low crossing at $38.00.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends the decline, psychological support crossing at $35.00 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $41.20 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at $48.59 are needed to confirm that a trend change has taken place.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at $39.26.

Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $41.20.

First support is the overnight low crossing at $35.18.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $35.00.

Crude Oil Set To Open Lower On Thursday

March crude oil closed lower on Wednesday confirming yesterday's breakout below December's low crossing at $38.00.

The stage is set for a test of psychological support crossing at $35.00.

The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $41.65 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at $48.59 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at $39.88.

Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $41.65.

First support is today's low crossing at $35.65.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $35.00.

IEA Cuts Demand Forecast and Saudi Arabia Doubles Spare Capacity

"Big Oil Leaders Bet on Long Term Energy Growth"
Touting an optimistic message, some Big Oil executives insist that long-term growth in energy demand remains unchanged....Complete Story

"Nigerian Oil Workers Mull Full Scale, Nationwide Strike"
Two main oil workers' unions are insisting on a full scale, nationwide strike against insecurity in the Niger Delta....Complete Story

"IEA Cuts 2009 Oil Demand Forecast on Recession, Sees 1 Million-Barrel Drop"
The International Energy Agency cut its global oil demand forecast for 2009, projecting consumption will decline by 1 million barrels a day as the worldwide recession deepens, the biggest drop since 1982....Complete Story

"Saudi Arabia to More Than Double Spare Capacity by Mid-Year"
Al-Naimi Says Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, will more than double its spare capacity by the middle of the year to 4.5 million barrels a day as it brings....Complete Story

Stock Market Winners and Losers

Winners

Magellan Petroleum 18.03%
Boots & Coots International Well Control 9.17%
Comstock Resources 1.34%
ICO 0.42%
Edge Petroleum 0.00%

Losers

TETRA Technologies -28.05%
Energy Partners -19.30%
Meridian Resource -18.18%
Stone Energy -11.98%
Parallel Petroleum -11.64%

Change based on the last 2 days of trading

Crude Oil Breaks Through $38 Support

March crude oil was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline but remains below broken support marked by December's low crossing at $38.00.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends the decline, psychological support crossing at $35.00 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $41.74 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at $48.59 are needed to confirm that a trend change has taken place.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at $40.06.

Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $41.74.

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $37.35.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $35.00.

Crude Oil Sets Stage For Possible Lower Opening On Wednesday Morning

March crude oil closed lower on Tuesday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends this year's decline, December's low crossing at 38.00 is the next downside target.

Closes below December's low crossing at $38.00 would open the door for a possible test of psychological support crossing at $30.00 later this winter.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $42.15 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at $48.59 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $42.15.

Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $48.59.

First support is today's low crossing at $38.41.

Second support is December's low crossing at $38.00.

"Chevron Locked Into Contracts.......Also Trying To Unload Big Foot"

"Chevron, BP Locked Into $200 Million Oil Wells Amid Crude Price Declines"
Chevron Corp. other oil producers are locked into drilling offshore wells that cost as much as $200 million each because of rig contracts that were signed when crude was soaring above $140 a barrel....Complete Story

"Pemex May Weather Financial Crisis by Avoiding Marginal Projects, CEO Says"
Petroleos Mexicanos, the state owned oil company, is in better shape to weather the global financial crisis because it avoids marginal projects such as oil sands, Chief Executive Officer Jesus Reyes Heroles said....Complete Story

"Chevron Approaches Oil Cos over Big Foot Farm Out"
Chevron Corp. has approached rival oil producers about the possibility of acquiring part of its stake in the Big Foot oil field in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico....Complete Story

"Mitsubishi, Petrobras Team Up to Build $830MM Deepwater Drillship"
Mitsubishi Corp and Petrobras have agreed to jointly build an $830 million ultra-deepwater drillship, slated for delivery in June 2010....Complete Story

Crude Oil Signals Bearish Pricing Possible Near Term

March crude oil was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it continues to trade sideways to lower off the late January high.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends the decline, January's low crossing at $39.11 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $42.23 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at $48.59 are needed to confirm that a trend change has taken place.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at $40.77.

Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $42.23.

First support is last Friday's low crossing at $38.60.

Second support is December's low crossing at $38.00.

Crude Oil Industry News For Monday

"Crude Oil Rises on Speculation Economic Stimulus Plan Will Revive Demand"
Crude oil rose the most in two weeks on speculation that a U.S. stimulus plan will revive demand in the world’s largest energy consuming country....Complete Story

"Oil Sands Explorer UTS Energy Rejects Total's $506 Million Takeover Offer"
UTS Energy Corp.’s board said Total SA’s C$617 million ($506 million) offer for the Canadian oil sands explorer is inadequate and recommended shareholders reject the bid by Europe’s third largest petroleum company....Complete Story

"Saudi Arabia Keeps China Oil Cos at Arm's Length"
Despite burgeoning trade between China and Saudi Arabia, progress is slow for China's biggest oil and gas companies in securing equity stakes in Saudi's oil and natural gas fields....Complete Story

"OPEC Shelves 35 Oil Projects, Warns of Falling Investment"
OPEC nations have collectively postponed 35 oil drilling projects that had been in various stages of development a sign that the cartel is starting to feel the impact of low crude prices....Complete Story

"Nigerian Oil Workers Strike over Attacks, Kidnappings"
Oil workers in Nigeria's oil-producing Niger Delta went on strike Monday to complain about a lack of protection from militant groups who attack oil facilities and kidnap workers....Complete Story

Crude Oil Industry Headline News For Friday

"Venezuela Oil Workers Pressure Rig Companies As Woes Mount"
Oil workers aligned with the government of President Hugo Chavez are pressuring rig companies to continue drilling, despite the state's failure to pay for those services at a time of rock-bottom oil prices....Complete Story

"Surge in US Crude Stocks Blunts OPEC Cuts"
Despite OPEC's cut of 1.3 million barrels a day in January, the growing supply glut is a serious setback to the cartel's efforts to curb the crude oil contango....Complete Story

"Crude Oil Falls as U.S. Unemployment Rate Surges, Signaling Lower Demand"
Crude oil fell to a two week low after unemployment in the U.S. climbed in January to the highest level since 1992, signaling that the recession in the world’s biggest energy consuming country is deepening....Complete Story

"Korea National Oil, Ecopetrol Acquire Peru's Petro Tech for $900 Million"
Korea National Oil Corp. and Ecopetrol SA bought Petro-Tech Peruana SA of Peru for $900 million to increase production as falling crude prices reduce the cost of acquiring commodity assets....Complete Story