Tuesday's Short Covering Has Crude Oil Closing Higher

April crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it extends last week's trading range.

The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday.

Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at $47.99 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If April renews this month's decline, psychological support crossing at $35.00 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $42.90.

Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $47.99.

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at $37.12.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $35.00.

Nymex Up First Time In Three Days, Exxon and Chevron Lift Broader Market

"Nymex Oil Advances for First Time in Three Days as U.S. Equities Rebound"
Crude oil rose for the first time in three days as the U.S. stock market advanced, signaling that fuel use in the world’s biggest energy consuming country may rebound....Complete Story

"Gasoline in New York Has First Gain in Three Days as Stock Futures Climb"
Gasoline futures rose for the first time in three days as U.S. stock indexes advanced after yesterday’s losses and on speculation that supplies of the motor fuel were unchanged last week....Complete Story

"ExxonMobil, Chevron Boost Broad Market"
ExxonMobil and Chevron outpaced gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday as the oil giants bolstered the broad market. A rise in crude oil prices and positive earnings reports from smaller players encouraged buying....Complete Story

"38 Foreign Cos Register for 2nd Iraq Oil Bid Round"
Thirty-eight international oil companies registered at the Iraqi oil ministry to bid for the 11 groups of oil and gas fields put up for a second bidding round by Iraq at the end of last year....Complete Story

Changes Coming For Controversial Oil Leases, Total Denies Deal

"US Interior Sec to Review Oil Companies Controversial Leases"
U.S. Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said Friday that changes regarding oil companies' leases would likely be part of a comprehensive energy bill Congress is drafting....Complete Story

"Total CEO Denies 'Sealed Deal' with Iran for South Pars Development"
Total's Chief Executive Officer has denied that the French oil giant and Iran are signing a deal before the end of March for the next phase of development at the massive South Pars gas field....Complete Story

"AEA: Offshore Drilling Could Deliver Huge Payoff in Jobs, Revenue"
The American Energy Alliance said lifting the U.S. prohibition on new offshore drilling would provide 1.2 million jobs and substantial revenue....Complete Story

Crude Oil Higher On Short Covering, Still Below 10 Day Moving Average

April crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at $41.26.

Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $43.41 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If April renews this year's decline, psychological support crossing at $35.00 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at $41.26.

Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $43.41.

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at $37.12.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $35.00.

Crude Oil's High Range Close Sets The Stage For Higher Open On Monday

March crude oil closed slightly lower on Friday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally.

The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday.

Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at $42.68 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If March renews this month's decline, psychological support crossing at $30.00 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $39.70.

Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $42.68.

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at $33.55.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $30.00.

Crude Oil Falls On Deepening Worldwide Recession

Crude Needs to Close Above 5-Day Moving Average to Prompt Rally, PVM Says
Oil futures prices need to close above their five-day moving averages to make a sustained rally, broker PVM Oil Associated Ltd. said....Complete Story

"Crude Oil Falls as Equities Drop on Concern Global Recession Is Deepening"
Crude oil fell, retreating from its largest gain in seven weeks, as global stock markets declined on concern the recession is deepening....Complete Story

"Chu Focuses on US Energy, Not What OPEC Should Do"
Energy Secretary Steven Chu, whose agency has long taken the lead on global oil market policy, said he doesn't know what the Obama administration would urge OPEC to do at its meeting next month....Complete Story

Learn How To Effectively Use Stops In This New Video

This simple trading tip can and will make a difference in your trading results in 2009.

Stops are enormously important part of a traders arsenal of trading tools. Some traders confirm that stops are the most important part of their trading armour.

So here are three ways to use stops to protect your capital and lock in profits from a trade. These three money management techniques can be used in stock, futures and forex trading.

The important rule is that you do use a real stop in the marketplace. A friend of mine joked with me that that he had never seen a “mental stop” filled electronically or in the pits.

If the market is good your stop will not be hit. If the market is bad or changing direction then you’ll want to be out of it anyway. That is why stops are so crucial to trading success.

Click Here To Watch Video

Here are the three most commonly used types of stops. Which one do you use?

(1) Dollar stop.
(2) Percentage stop.
(3) Chart stop.

If you chose (1) you’d be correct, but, you would also be correct if you had chosen 2 or 3. All three are money management stops and are used to either lock in profits or protect capital.

1) A dollar stop, is when you set a predetermined dollar amount to a trade. Let’s say you want to risk $500 on a grain trade or $750 on a stock trade. Once you get your fill back from your broker or electronically online you simply figure from your fill price where to put your stop.

Pros: Easy to implement and use.
Cons: Can place stops too close in a volatile market

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2) Percentage stop, is a very simple way for you to place a stop on a position. Here’s how it works. Let’s say your trading account is 100,000 dollars and let’s say you only want to risk 1% of your total portfolio on any one trade. You simply take a $1,000 risk which represents 1% of your over all portfolio. This can help enormously in avoiding taking BIG LOSSES. A 1% loss is easy to absorb. A 30% or 40% loss in a trade is an account killer, and should be avoided at all costs.

Pros: Easy to implement and use.
Cons: Can place stops too close.

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3) Chart stop, a chart stop is where you place a stop that is either above or below a crucial chart level. The good thing about a chart stop is that this level is often used by other traders. That can both be a good thing and a bad thing, here’s why. Using either one of our first two examples only you know where the stop is. With a chart stop, a great many traders/brokers know that is where the stops are. In an illiquid market this type of stop should not be used, as many times brokers gun for the stops. In a highly liquid and active market this is a good stop to use.

Pros: Very easy to implement and use.
Cons: Can’t be used in thinly traded markets.

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So there you have it. Now you have all three ways to manage your money and protect your profits in 2009.

Use stops…let them work for you.

Click Here To Watch Video

Crude Oil Rally May Be One And Done, Near Term Low Might Be In

March crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally but remains above the 10 day moving average crossing at $37.18.

Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $39.66 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If March renews this year's decline, psychological support crossing at $30.00 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $39.66.

Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $42.68.

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at $33.55.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $30.00.

Crude Oil Closes Above 10 Day Moving Average

March crude oil closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 10 day moving average crossing at $37.51 signaling that a short term low might be in place.

The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday.

Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at $42.68 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If March renews this month's decline, psychological support crossing at $30.00 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $39.93.

Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $42.68.

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at $33.55.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $30.00.

Crude Oil Increases On Lower Inventory, Petrobras Next Up For Chinese Loan"

"Crude Oil Jumps After Report Shows Unexpected Decline in U.S. Inventories"
Crude oil rose more than 10 percent in New York after a U.S. government report showed an unexpected drop in inventories....Complete Story

"Petrobras Signs a $10 Billion Loan Agreement With China Development Bank"
Petroleo Brasileiro SA signed a loan agreement for $10 billion with China’s Development bank, Chief Executive Officer Jose Sergio Gabrielli said today....Complete Story

"Majority of OPEC Governors Against Cut in March"
The majority of OPEC governors are opposed to a new output reduction being decided at a scheduled conference of the group in March but may support a 1.6 million barrels a day cut later, according to a Dow Jones News report....Complete Story

"Low Oil Prices Set to Delay Chevron Project in Cambodia"
Falling oil prices are likely to delay U.S. oil giant Chevron's development of Block A near southwestern Cambodia....Complete Story

Crude Oil Consolidates Below Broken Support

March crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates below broken support marked by December's low, which crosses at $38.00.

Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $39.75 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If March extends this year's decline, psychological support crossing at $30.00 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at $37.11. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $39.75.

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at $33.55.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $30.00.

Crude Oil Market Key Events For Thursday

10:30 AM ET. Feb 13 EIA Natural Gas Inventories, in billion cubic feet

Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 2020)

Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous –159)

11:00 AM ET. Feb 13 US Energy Dept Oil Inventories

Crude Oil Stocks (previous 350.78M)

Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (expected +2.7M; previous +4.71M)

Gasoline Stocks (previous 217.55M)

Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (expected -400K; previous -2.66M)

Distillate Stocks (previous 141.56M)

Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (expected -1M; previous -1.03M)

Refinery Usage (expected 81.6%; previous 81.6%)

Crude Oil's Low Range Close Sets The Stage For Possible Lower Opening On Thursday

March crude oil closed lower on Wednesday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $40.46 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at $48.59 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If March renews this month's decline, psychological support crossing at $30.00 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at $37.57.

Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $40.14.

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at $33.55.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $30.00.

Oil Futures Fall Ahead Of Thursday Inventory Numbers

"Oil Futures for April Fall on Expectations of Further U.S. Inventory Gain"
Crude oil for April delivery fell on speculation that a government report tomorrow will show U.S. supplies climbed for the 19th time in 21 weeks as the recession cuts demand....Complete Story

"Oil Companies Bet on Swift Price Rebound Has Its Risks"
Major oil companies are promising to maintain investment through the current price dip, but the risk is growing that a prolonged slump could stymie their plans....Complete Story

"How Much Is Oil Really Worth?"
Is crude oil in the mid $30s per barrel, or in the low-$40s? Both, it turns out, which makes it increasingly difficult to figure out the headline price of crude, the world's heaviest traded commodity....Complete Story

"Sakhalin 2 Project Starts Russia's First LNG Plant"
Sakhalin Energy, the Gazprom-led consortium developing the Sakhalin 2 project in Russia's Far East, Wednesday started up Russia's first LNG liquefaction plant....Complete Story

Crude Oil Slightly Higher Overnight On Short Covering

March crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline.

Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $40.16 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If March extends this year's decline, psychological support crossing at $30.00 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at $37.61.

Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $40.16.

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at $33.55.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $30.00.


4:30 PM ET. Feb 13 API Oil Industry Report

Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous +1.99M)

Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -2.92M)

Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous -853K)

Refinery Runs (previous 81.9%)

Crude Oil Oversold, Is The Short Term Low In?

March crude oil closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. If March renews this month's decline, psychological support crossing at 30.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 40.46 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 48.59 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 38.19. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 40.45. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 33.55. Second support is psychological support crossing at 30.00.

Transocean Profits Fall, China To Prop Up Russia With Loan

"Oil Falls Below $35 as Deepening Recession Slows Global Demand for Fuels"
Crude oil fell below $35 a barrel in New York on speculation a deepening recession in the U.S., Europe and Asia will reduce fuel demand....Complete Story

"Transocean's Profit Falls as Tumbling Energy Prices Reduce Value of Rigs"
Transocean, the world’s largest offshore oil driller, said quarterly profit fell for the first time in more than two years after tumbling energy prices cut the value of some rigs and well-management services....Complete Story

"Eyes on Saudis As OPEC Weighs Output Cuts"
As OPEC ponders its next move at its March 15 meeting, analysts said the scope for further output cuts by the Saudis may be limited by domestic energy needs for natural gas to cool the desert kingdom as spring approaches....Complete Story

"Russia, China Ink $25B Oil Loan Deal"
Russia signed its biggest ever energy deal with China on Tuesday, under which its oil companies will receive $25 billion in loans in exchange for long-term crude supplies....Complete Story

IEA, Exxon and Russia All Eye The Future Of Oil Inventory

"IEA Chief Urges OPEC Against More Output Cuts"
The International Energy Agency on Monday urged OPEC nations against cutting oil production further when they meet next month....Complete Story

"ExxonMobil To Carry On Spending Despite Oil Price"
U.S. oil giant Exxon Mobil Corp will not cut back on investments in new crude production, despite the collapse in oil prices, the company's regional head of exploration said on Monday....Complete Story

"Russia Studies Large Crude Inventory"
Russia is working towards creating a state reserve to buy crude from producers when prices are low, potentially removing up to 16 million tonnes of Russian oil from export markets....Complete Story

NYMEX Trading and Processing Schedule

Monday February 16, 2008 (President's Day)

* NYMEX and COMEX trading floors will be closed.
* The DME intraday settlement price (OSP) to be published at the normal
time of 3:30 AM for February 16 calendar date. No post-close
settlement to be published.
* NYMEX and COMEX products on CME Globex and NYMEX ClearPort (including
DME Direct) will open for trading/trade submission for the February 19
trade date until the trading halt at 5:15 PM.
* Day/session orders entered on CME Globex or DME Direct will be for the
February 17 trade date and will continue until Tuesday's close at
5:15 PM.
* NYMEX trading at settlement (TAS) products on CME Globex will be
available for trading for the February 17 trade date.
* NYMEX TMS will be available for trade management for February 19 trade
date.
* NYMEX cleared trades API will be available.
* Markets will not be settled and settlements will not be published, as
February 16 is not a trade or processing date.
* NYMEX intraday files will not be produced, no clearing will occur, and
no clearing functionality will be available.
* Daily SPAN and erosion files will not be produced (an additional
erosion file will be produced on February 17).
* Options cannot be exercised.
* There will not be any allocation of energy and metal deliveries or
delivery notices, and related forms will not be accepted.
* The first normal intraday file generated on calendar date February 17
will contain trades from calendar date February 16.
* NYMEX and COMEX products on CME Globex and NYMEX ClearPort (including
DME Direct) all reopen for trading/trade submission at 6:00 PM
(February 19 Trade Date).


Tuesday February 17, 2008

* Normal schedule resumes.
* Banking for February 15th clearing cycle will occur.
* Large trader reporting for NYMEX and COMEX for February 15th trade date
for any clearing members not holding DME positions are due by 8:00 AM.
* "Double Erosion" will occur to account for the February 18 Peak Day.
Two erosion files will be produced.

Crude Oil Futures Price Updates

Just click on the graph to enlarge......