Where is Crude Oil Headed on Thursday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




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Crude Oil Bulls Gain Fresh Near Term Momentum

Crude oil closed up $2.10 at $76.50 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh two week high today. Crude was supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and firmer U.S. stock index prices today. Bulls today gained fresh upside near term technical momentum.

Natural gas closed up 11.7 cents at $5.889 today. Prices closed near the session high and closed at a fresh two month high close today. Bulls have gained upside near term technical momentum recently. Prices are in a steep three week old uptrend on the daily bar chart.

Heating oil closed up 570 points at $2.0270 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and scored a fresh two week high. Bulls gained some fresh upside near term technical momentum today. The bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.1000.

Unleaded gasoline (RBOB) closed up 644 points at $1.9770 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh two week high. Bulls gained some fresh upside technical momentum today. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.0500.

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Oil Inventories Saw Huge Declines Across the Board

The inventory report by the US Energy Department surprised the market as crude inventory fell -4.84 mmb to 327.5 mmb in the week ended December 18. The draw was significantly more than market expectation and represented the third consecutive decline. Although stockpile at Cushing, Oklahoma rose +0.57 mmb, the pace of increase has moderated and should narrow the discount of WTI crude to Brent crude.

Distillate stockpile declined -3.03 mmb, following a -2.95 mmb draw in the prior week. This is the second consecutive weekly fall. The market anticipates further draw in coming weeks as the weather gets abnormally cold. Gasoline inventory dipped -0.88 mmb to 216.3 mmb, offsetting the build in the previous week.

Rally in crude oil price accelerated after the report. The benchmark contract surged to 76.53, the highest in 3 weeks. For oil products, heating oil price jumped to 2.038 while RBOB gasoline also climbed to 1.965.....Here is the charts!

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Crude Oil Bulls Keep The Momentum as They Look to Wednesday Inventory

Crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates above the 10 day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.30 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 68.86 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.30
Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 75.65

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 73.44
Second support is last week's low crossing at 70.83

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Natural gas was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.196 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If January extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 6.036 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.929
Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 6.036

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.541
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.196

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The U.S. Dollar was slightly lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral signaling that additional gains are possible near term.

If March extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.64 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 78.77
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.66
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.64

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Oil Trades Above $74 on Speculation Supplies Dropped Last Week

Oil held steady above $74 a barrel in New York before a U.S. Energy Department report likely to show crude stockpiles fell last week as temperatures dropped. The report today is expected to show oil inventories in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy consumer, shrank by 1.6 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 18, according to the median estimate of 16 analysts polled by Bloomberg News. Data from the industry funded American Petroleum Institute yesterday showed commercially held U.S. inventories fell by 3.71 million barrels.

“Due to cold weather, we are seeing stock draws in crude and that is the supporting factor these days,” said Hannes Loacker, an analyst at Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich. “It brings the inventory levels nearer to the five year average.” Crude oil for February delivery rose as much as 47 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $74.87 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract was at $74.66 as of 10:36 a.m. London time. Futures closed yesterday at $74.40, the highest settlement since Dec. 4. There will be no trading on Dec. 25 for Christmas and on Jan. 1 for New Year’s Day.....Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Wednesday Morning

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's recovery from 68.58 is still in progress and further rise cannot be ruled out. But still, upside is expected to be limited by 61.8% retracement of 82.0 to 68.58 at 76.87 and bring resumption of the fall from 82.0. On the downside, below 71.21 will indicate that recovery from 68.58 has completed and will flip intraday bias for this support first. Break will target 65.05 key support next. However, decisive break of 76.87 fibo resistance will argue that fall from 82.0 has completed and will turn focus back to this resistance.

In the bigger picture, at this point, crude oil is still limited by 55 days EMA (now at 74.47) and hence, we're favoring the case that medium term rise from 33.2 has completed at 82.0 with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Another fall is expected after finishing the current recovery from 68.58 and a break there will target 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60). Break there will confirm this bearish case and indicate that the down trend from 147.27 might be resuming for another low below 33.2. However, sustained trading above mentioned 76.87 will dampen this bearish view and argue that another high above 82.0 might be seen before crude oil tops in 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Natural gas' consolidation from 5.929 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. More sideway trading should be seen with risk of another fall to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 5.535) and below. But downside is expected to be contained well above 4.837 support (61.8% retracement of 4.157 to 5.929 at 4.834) and bring rally resumption. Above 5.930 will target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005 and might have completed at 2.409 already. Rise from 2.409 should not be completed yet and we would continue to anticipate an upside breakout of the recent range of 4.157/5.138 eventually. Above 5.318 will target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. Nevertheless, break of 4.432 support will dampen this bullish case and turn outlook mixed again.....Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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CNBC Video: Crude Oil Predictions for 2010

John Licata, chief investment strategist at Blue Phoenix Inc tells CNBC's Sri Jegarajah and Karen Tso that he sees the price for crude at $87/barrel by the later half of 2010.




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Crude Oil Closes Higher, Ending Two Day Correction

Crude oil closed higher on Tuesday ending a two day correction. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.45 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 68.16 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.45
Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 74.69

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 73.27
Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 68.59

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Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.149 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market. If January extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 6.036 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.929
Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 6.036

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.459
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.149

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The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends its current rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.44 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the Dollar.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 78.77
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.45
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.44

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Oil Falls as U.S. Growth Revised Lower, OPEC Maintains Quotas

Crude oil fell after the U.S. economy expanded at a slower pace than anticipated in the third quarter and OPEC agreed to maintain production targets. Oil slipped after the Commerce Department said that the gross domestic product grew 2.2 percent from July through September, down from a 2.8 percent gain previously reported. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will hold quotas at 24.845 million barrels a day. “This was a significant revision,” said Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics LLC, an Austin, Texas-based energy consultant. “This should weigh on prices.”

Crude oil for February delivery dropped 47 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $73.25 a barrel at 10:14 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up 64 percent this year. This was the fourth time this year that OPEC ministers met without revising production figures. Today’s meeting was held in Luanda, Angola. Rising prices have encouraged some OPEC members to renege on their pledge in 2008 to reduce output by 4.2 million barrels a day. Members complied with 58 percent of cuts in November, down from 60 percent the previous month, according to International Energy Agency estimates.....Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

With 71.21 minor support intact, crude oil's recovery from 68.58 might still extend further. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 61.8% retracement of 82.0 to 68.58 at 76.87 and bring resumption of the fall from 82.0. On the downside, below 71.21 will indicate that recovery from 68.58 has completed and will flip intraday bias for this support first. Break will target 65.05 key support next. However, decisive break of 76.87 fibo resistance will argue that fall from 82.0 has completed and will turn focus back to this resistance.

In the bigger picture, at this point, crude oil is still limited by 55 days EMA (now at 74.47) and hence, we're favoring the case that medium term rise from 33.2 has completed at 82.0 with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Another fall is expected after finishing the current recovery from 68.58 and a break there will target 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60). Break there will confirm this bearish case and indicate that the down trend from 147.27 might be resuming for another low below 33.2. However, sustained trading above mentioned 76.87 will dampen this bearish view and argue that another high above 82.0 might be seen before crude oil tops in 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, an intraday top should be in place at 5.929 and bias is turned neutral for the monument. Some consolidations could be seen with risk of retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 5.499). But downside is expected to be contained well above 4.837 support (61.8% retracement of 4.157 to 5.929 at 4.834) and bring rally resumption. Above 5.930 will target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005 and might have completed at 2.409 already. Rise from 2.409 should not be completed yet and we would continue to anticipate an upside breakout of the recent range of 4.157/5.138 eventually. Above 5.318 will target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. Nevertheless, break of 4.432 support will dampen this bullish case and turn outlook mixed again.....Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Where is Crude Oil Headed on Tuesday?

CNBC's Bertha Coombs discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




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Low Range Close in Crude Oil Set's The Stage For Lower Opening on Tuesday

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.04 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 68.16 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.04
Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 74.69.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 71.51
Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 68.59

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Natural gas closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of this month's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If January extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 6.036 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.104 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.929
Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 6.036

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.401
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.104

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The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Monday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends its current rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.29 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the Dollar.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 78.50
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.25
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.29

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China's Oil Demand for November Up by 18.7%

According to Platts, China's apparent oil demand in November soared 18.7% from a year ago as the country's economic recovery picked up momentum. November's surge in oil demand marked the third straight month that the world's second largest oil consumer posted double digit yearly growth in oil demand. Chinese oil demand was estimated to reach 33.67 million mt (8.22 million barrels per day) in November, versus 28.36 million mt a year ago, a Platts analysis of official data showed on December 21. November oil demand was slightly less than the 33.89 million metric tons (8.01 million b/d) seen in October.

"China has pulled out all the stops this year to be sure that its economy has performed well throughout the global financial crisis. That has had a dramatic impact on oil demand in the country," said Dave Ernsberger, Platts senior editorial director for Asia. "Lifting demand for oil by double digits month after month was not Beijing's goal when it injected half a trillion dollars into its economy this year, but it was one of the most significant consequences".....Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil Continues Climbing as Recovery Makes Most Accurate Forecasters Bullish

Oil’s biggest annual rally since 1999 is poised to continue with gains of at least 19 percent next year as the global economy recovers and OPEC curtails production, the most accurate crude forecasters say. Societe Generale SA’s Mike Wittner and Hannes Loacker at Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich AG, whose predictions this year that were within 9 percent of market levels, now say oil will average $92.50 and $88, respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2010, up from current prices of about $74 in New York. The median Wall Street estimate is for an increase to $83.

Oil is set to rise as China and India lead the world economy from its biggest economic shock since World War II, while the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries caps output, Wittner and Loacker said. Analysts say OPEC will keep supply targets unchanged at a meeting in Luanda, Angola, tomorrow, even as the International Energy Agency predicts fuel consumption will rise 1.7 percent next year. “With global demand growing and OPEC holding production flat, stockpiles are going to come down, and that’s bullish for prices,” said Wittner, 48, the head of oil market research at Societe Generale in London. Commodities will also benefit from the weak dollar and U.S. interest rates close to zero percent, he said.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Bull's Take Firm Near Term Advantage

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends last week's rally above the 10 day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.08 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 68.16 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.08
Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 74.29

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 71.60
Second support is last week's low crossing at 68.59

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Natural gas was higher overnight and is extending this month's rally above the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 5.807. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If January extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 6.036 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.116 would temper the near term bullish outlook in the market.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 5.926
Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October- December decline crossing at 6.036

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.425
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.116

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Monday Morning

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

As noted, recovery from 68.58 might still extend further for the moment. But still, upside is expected to be limited by 61.8% retracement at 76.87 and bring resumption of the fall from 82.0. On the downside, below 71.21 will indicate that recovery from 68.58 has completed and will flip intraday bias for this support first. Break will target 65.05 key support next. However, decisive break of 76.87 fibo resistance will argue that fall from 82.0 has completed and will turn focus back to this resistance.

In the bigger picture, at this point, crude oil is still limited by 55 days EMA (now at 74.49) and hence, we're favoring the case that medium term rise from 33.2 has completed at 82.0 with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Another fall is expected after finishing the current recovery from 68.58 and a break there will target 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60). Break there will confirm this bearish case and indicate that the down trend from 147.27 might be resuming for another low below 33.2. However, sustained trading above mentioned 76.87 will dampen this bearish view and argue that another high above 82.0 might be seen before crude oil tops in 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Intraday bias in natural gas remains on the upside with 5.57 minor support intact. Current rally is still expected to extend further to 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 next. On the downside, below 5.57 minor support will suggest that an intraday top is formed and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained well above 4.837 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005 and might have completed at 2.409 already. Rise from 2.409 should not be completed yet and we would continue to anticipate an upside breakout of the recent range of 4.157/5.138 eventually. Above 5.318 will target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. Nevertheless, break of 4.432 support will dampen this bullish case and turn outlook mixed again.....Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Natural Gas Trading Trend – Daily Chart

Trend lines provide excellent levels for support and resistance and this chart is a perfect example of that. Not much to say about this chart other than UNG is trading at resistance and volume is big. This tells me we could see lower prices from here or some sideways price action first.




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Crude Oil Trend – Daily Chart

Oil had a great setup last week with many readers profiting from the oversold bounce off support which I pointed out on the daily chart last week. When buying into an oversold setup like this I scale in over 2-3 days in case prices dip lower as the selling dissipates. Average price was $35.75 and sold at first target of $37 for a 3.5% profit. Many of us still hold a core position with a tight stop.

The 60 minute chart shows this play and how the price popped once the sellers were cleared out.






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Crude Oil Trades Near $73 on Signs of Global Economic Recovery

Crude oil traded near $73 a barrel in New York after rising last week amid optimism demand will increase as the global economy recovers from its worst recession since World War II. Oil prices may gain this week on expectations that increasing fuel demand in the U.S., the largest energy consumer, will reduce inventories, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Reports this week are forecast to show increasing sales of existing and new homes in the country. “If the sentiment around demand recovery continues to improve I’d see upward support for oil prices,” Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd., said in Melbourne. “But an oversupply problem overshadows the market, and it’s hard to see oil pushing much higher.”

Crude oil for January delivery was at $73.29 a barrel, down 7 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 1:51 p.m. Singapore time. The contract, which expires today, rose 1 percent to $73.36 on Dec. 18, the highest settlement since Dec. 7. Futures climbed 5 percent last week, the most in two months, and have gained 64 percent this year. Prices had jumped after Iranian troops occupied an oil field in a disputed border region with Iraq. The troops withdrew from the al-Fakah well in the East Maysan field late Dec. 19 after an armed confrontation, Iraq’s deputy minister of oil Abdul Kareem al-Luaibi said yesterday. Separately, Iraqi television cited government spokesman Ali Al-Dabbagh as saying Iranian soldiers remained in Iraqi territory.....Read the entire article.


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Where is Crude Oil Headed This Week?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed next week.





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Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Crude oil's recovery from 68.58 extend further to as high as 74.69 last week and is probably still in progress. Further rise could still be seen initially this week. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 61.8% retracement at 76.87 and bring resumption of the fall from 82.0. On the downside, below 71.21 will indicate that recovery from 68.58 has completed and will flip intraday bias for this support first. Break will target 65.05 key support next. However, decisive break of 76.87 fibo resistance will argue that fall from 82.0 has completed and will turn focus back to this resistance.

In the bigger picture, at this point, crude oil is still limited by 55 days EMA (now at 74.52) and hence, we're favoring the case that medium term rise from 33.2 has completed at 82.0 with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Another fall is expected after finishing the current recovery from 68.58 and a break there will target 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60). Break there will confirm this bearish case and indicate that the down trend from 147.27 might be resuming for another low below 33.2. However, sustained trading above mentioned 76.87 will dampen this bearish view and argue that another high above 82.0 might be seen before crude oil tops in 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone

In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Growing Power of Iraqi Kurdistan Could Backfire on Tehran

Iran's strategy to break Iraq into three component territories, and to dominate those territories in order to reduce regional opposition and to gain unfettered access to Syria and the Mediterranean as a result of the Western invasion of Iraq in 2004, has had profound success. The country is now, at best, a federation, with elements of a slide toward confederacy or even the breaking away of some territory. Iran dominates, and will increasingly dominate, the Shi'a controlled central heartland and the Government of Iraq, particularly when US and Coalition forces depart. Iraq's northern, and predominantly Kurdish, region is now virtually an independent state. It is certainly an autonomous state.

And yet the solution which Tehran sought, the break-up of Iraq, may hold more problems for it than a unified Iraq, as the modern Iraqi state was created under British tutelage in 1922. Indeed, the Kurds, who had been financially swayed by both Baghdad and Tehran for decades, may feel sufficient strength that the foundations of a sovereign state can be laid. That sovereign state would, as the Iraqi Kurds have made clear — have aspirations on territory inside Iran, in Syria, and, significantly, Turkey (and possibly Azerbaijan and Armenia). In that respect, the Turkish-Iranian-Syrian rapprochement could not have come at a more propitious time. This reality, too, fuels the momentum in Ankara toward phasing out its strategic relationship with Israel. A Turkey-Armenia-Iran arrangement would help curtail Kurdish dreams of unity (even though the Kurdish tribes have historically been anything but trusting of each other, in many respects). And, fueling Ankara's concerns has been the heavy Israeli commercial involvement in the.....Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil Closes Higher, Signaling Higher Prices Are Possible Near Term

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it extends this week's rally. Profit taking tempered early session gains and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish with this week's rally signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.27 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 68.16 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.27
Second resistance is today's high crossing at 74.69

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 71.62
Second support is Monday's low crossing at 68.59

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Natural gas closed slightly higher on Friday as it extends this month's rally. Profit taking tempered early session gains and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If January extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 6.036 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.058 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.926
Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 6.036

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.330
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.058

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The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Friday as it extends this month's rally. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends its current rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.14 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the Dollar.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 78.50
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.02
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.14


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Iraq Accuses Iran of Violating Border, Demands Withdrawal From Territory

Iraq’s National Security Council said today that Iran violated their shared border and Iraq’s “territorial integrity” and called on the Islamic republic to withdraw its forces from the region. Iraq summoned the Iranian ambassador in Baghdad and has begun “diplomatic steps” to resolve the situation, Iraqi government spokesman Ali Al Dabbagh said in a statement after a meeting of the security council.

Iranian forces entered Iraq at dawn yesterday and occupied an oil well in the East Maysan oil field, Zafer Nazmi, a border guard general, said earlier today. The Iranian forces positioned tanks around the well in the al-Fakah region, 450 kilometers (280 miles) south of Baghdad. The two neighbors have disputed the border of southeast Iraq for decades.

“The council stressed that the incursion is a violation of Iraq’s border and territorial integrity and called on Iran to withdraw from well 4 and lower the Iranian flag from the well tower immediately,” according to the statement. Crude oil for January delivery rose 71 cents, or 1 percent, to settle at $73.36 a barrel today on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It rose as much as 2.8 percent in intraday trading on news of the incursion.....Read the entire article.


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New Video: As the Dow Goes, So Goes the Country

The Dow has managed to claw back 50% of the losses that occurred in 2007 and 2008. The question now is, what’s ahead?

In our new video we share with you some of the ideas that we are looking at for this index. We believe we are at a very important crossroads and would not be surprised to see this market lose ground in the next 3 to 6 months. In the video we also show you exactly what we are looking at that will confirm a major top for this index.

Just click here to watch the new video and as always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register.

Good trading,

Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO
Crude Oil Trader

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Crude Oil Bulls Attempt to Gain The Momentum Trading Above The 10 Day Moving Average

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends this week's short covering rally above the 10 day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.33 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 68.16 is the next downside target.

Friday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 72.33

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 74.29
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.33

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 71.74
Second support is Monday's low crossing at 68.59

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of USO

Natural gas was higher overnight and is extending this month's rally above the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 5.807. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If January extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 6.036 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.065 would temper the near term bullish outlook in the market.

Natural gas pivot point for Friday is 5.711

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 5.920
Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 6.036

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.344
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.065

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of UNG

The U.S. Dollar was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral signaling that additional gains are possible near term.

If March extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.13 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 78.28
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.99
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.13



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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Friday Morning

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's rebound extends further and further rise could still be seen as long as 71.21 minor support holds. Nevertheless, we'd still expect upside to be limited by 61.8% retracement at 76.87 and bring resumption of the fall from 82.0. On the downside, below 71.21 will indicate that recovery from 68.58 has completed and will flip intraday bias for this support first. Break will target 65.05 key support next.

In the bigger picture, we're favoring the case that medium term rise from 33.2 has completed at 82.0 with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. The break of medium term trend line support last week affirms this case and should pave the way to 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60) for confirmation. As noted before, rise from 33.2 is treated as part of the correction pattern that started at 147.27. Firmed break of 58.32 support will argue that the down trend from 147.27 might be resuming for another low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 79.04 resistance is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Natural gas rises further to as high as 5.926 so far and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 2.409 to 5.318 from 4.157 at 5.955. Break will target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 next. On the downside, below 5.57 minor support will suggest that an intraday top is formed and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained well above 4.837 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005 and might have completed at 2.409 already. Rise from 2.409 resumes as expected after consolidations from 5.318 completed. Current rally should now be targeting 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. Break of 4.432 support is needed to indicate that natural gas has topped. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.....Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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New Video: It’s Official Silly Season for Gold

We are already in the “silly season” and what we mean by that is after December 15 most traders are not serious about the markets and they’re not committed to any large positions for the balance of the year.

We’ve had a number requests to do a video on gold, so here it is. As you will see in the video, gold has fallen back to an area that should provide support, however it will remain choppy and thinly traded for the balance of the year.

We strongly recommend that if you’re not in gold, to wait until we see more interest and activity coming into 2010.

Just click here to watch the new video and as always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. Please take a minute to leave a comment and let us know where you think Gold is headed.

Good trading,

Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO
The Crude Oil Trader

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Where is Crude Oil Headed on Friday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.





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Crude Oil Gains Limited By Stronger U.S. Dollar

Crude oil closed steady at $72.66 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Gains were limited by a stronger U.S. dollar and weaker U.S. stock indexes. Crude prices are still in a two month old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next downside price objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at this week's low of $68.59.

Natural gas closed up 30.5 cents at $5.767 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another fresh six week high. A bullish weekly storage report boosted nat gas today, along with recent cold U.S. weather and more in the forecast. Bulls have gained solid upside near term technical momentum recently. Prices are in a steep two week old uptrend on the daily bar chart.

Unleaded gasoline (RBOB) closed down 225 points at $1.8514 today. Prices closed near mid range today. Bears still have the near term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $1.9500.

The U.S. Dollar index closed up 76 points at 78.10 today. Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh three month high today. The bulls have recently gained good upside near term technical momentum to suggest that a near term low is in place.

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Has the dollar bottomed out?

We have made a number of videos on the dollar index and in our latest video we show you some of the aspects we outlined in our previous video that have come to pass.

The positive divergences on the MACD indicator which we discussed last time have kicked in and pushed the dollar index higher. Longer term major trend for the dollar index continues to be negative. In this short video you’ll see what the market is doing now and what we expect it to do in the future.

Just click here to watch the video and as always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. Please take a minute to leave a comment and let us know what you think of the video and the direction of the dollar.

Good trading,

Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO Crude Oil Trader


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Crude Oil Falls as Dollar Reaches Three Month High Against Euro

Crude oil fell for the first time in three days as the dollar strengthened against the euro, limiting the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. Oil dropped as much as 2 percent as the dollar rose to a three month high against the European currency and U.S. equities declined. Futures are 12 percent below the year’s high of $82 a barrel reached Oct. 21. U.S. oil supplies are 6.4 percent above the five year average, the Energy Department said yesterday.

“The dollar’s stronger, and that’s for the most part the big thing here,” said Carl Larry, president of Oil Outlooks & Opinions LLC in Houston. Crude oil for January delivery fell 70 cents, or 1 percent, to $71.96 a barrel at 1:50 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, futures touched $71.21 a barrel. Oil has risen 61 percent this year. The dollar strengthened to $1.4329 per euro at 1:51 p.m. in New York from $1.4531 yesterday. Earlier it touched $1.4305, the highest since Sept. 7......Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil: Lower Levels Ahead?

The crude oil market continues to soften and is now close to some important levels that we think we should look at. In our new video we look at what is happening in this market right now and what we expect to happen in the future.

As we have indicated in our earlier posts, we are now in the official “silly season” for trading. What we mean by that is the markets will be very thin, choppy and can be moved by a relatively small amount of money.

Just click here to watch the new video and as always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. Please feel free to leave a comment and let us know what you are thinking about the direction of crude oil.


Good trading,

Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO Crude Oil Trader


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Crude Oil Falls on Overnight Rally in the U.S. Dollar

Crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's short covering rally but remains above the 10 day moving average crossing at 71.80. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.49 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 68.16 is the next downside target.

Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 72.27

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 73.55
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.49

First support is Monday's low crossing at 68.59
Second support is the 87% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 68.16

What do Super Traders have in common?

Natural gas was higher overnight and is challenging the 62% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 5.565. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If January extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 5.807 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.993 would temper the near term bullish outlook in the market.

Natural gas pivot point for Thursday is 5.484

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 5.569
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 5.807

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.188
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.993

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The U.S. Dollar was sharply higher overnight as it extends this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral signaling that additional gains are possible near term.

If March extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.03 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 78.16.
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.82.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.03.

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Thursday Morning

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's recovery from 68.58 might still be in progress for 38.2% retracement of 82.0 to 68.58 at 73.71 and possibly above. But after all, we'd expected upside to be limited by 61.8% retracement at 76.87 and bring fall resumption. Below 68.58 will target 65.05 key support next.

In the bigger picture, we're favoring the case that medium term rise from 33.2 has completed at 82.0 with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. The break of medium term trend line support last week affirms this case and should pave the way to 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60) for confirmation. As noted before, rise from 33.2 is treated as part of the correction pattern that started at 147.27. Firmed break of 58.32 support will argue that the down trend from 147.27 might be resuming for another low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 79.04 resistance is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Intraday bias in Natural gas remains on the upside with 5.37 minor support intact and current rise is still expected to continue to 61.8% projection of 2.409 to 5.318 from 4.157 at 5.955 next. On the downside, below 5.37 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat, probably to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 5.221). Nevertheless, downside should be contained above 4.837 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005 and might have completed at 2.409 already. Rise from 2.409 resumes as expected after consolidations from 5.318 completed. Current rally should now be targeting 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. Break of 4.432 support is needed to indicate that natural gas has topped. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.....Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Crude Oil Falls as Dollar Reaches Three-Month High Against Euro

Crude oil fell for the first time in three days as the dollar strengthened against the euro, limiting the appeal of commodities as a currency hedge. Crude gained as the dollar rose to a three month high against the euro as Greece’s latest debt downgrade fanned concern that spiralling national debts may hamper the global economic recovery. The U.S. currency also gained after the Federal Reserve said yesterday the economy is strengthening and the deterioration in the labor market is abating.

“It is the dollar mainly because even though the Fed kept interest rates unchanged they did admit things are stabilizing in the U.S. economy,” said Andrey Kryuchenkov, a VTB Capital analyst in London. “Sentiment in the dollar is turning positive.” Crude oil for January delivery fell as much as $1.01, or 1.4 percent, to $71.65 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $72.05 a barrel at 11:35 a.m. London time. Yesterday, the contract added $1.97 to $72.66 in New York, the biggest gain in a month, after the Energy Department said U.S. crude inventories declined to the lowest since the week ended Jan. 9. Prices have gained 61 percent this year.....Read the entire article.


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Stocks and Commodities Are Trading Predictably

It’s been a great week so far. Stocks and commodities are moving as expected from my weekend trading report. I like to see the market unfold in a calm collected manner.

The US dollar has made a nice move in the past couple weeks. Although it has broken out of its down channel I think there is a lot of short covering going on making this bounce more powerful than others. Also it is important to note that it is near resistance which could dampen things around the $77-77.5 level. If the dollar heads back down I expect gold to start making a move back up which it started to do Wednesday.

Below are my thoughts and charts about what I think is unfolding for both stocks and commodities.

DIA – Dow Jones Index Fund
The DIA fund has performed just the way I thought it would. Push to a new high then sell down. Generally I would expect this move down to test my support level or trade near that level, but because we are heading into the holiday season and volume is light the market has a natural tendency to drift higher. I’m sure this is why it’s still trading near the high.

This new yearly high was enough to suck in breakout traders and only time will tell if they get follow through or get shaken out of this trade also. Oh, the joys of buying a breakout in an over bought market condition.



GLD – Gold Exchange Traded Fund
Gold broke down sharply from its trend channel and has settled into a support zone. Wednesday we saw a nice bounce but the question is, is this a rally or a sucker’s bounce?
I’ve found the best setups and moves occur after an ABC retrace. The black lines on the chart show exactly that type of price action. These retraces shake out most short term traders before starting a new rally. There is a thin dotted blue line showing a possible resistance trend line which would need to be broken after the ABC retrace pattern has formed if we want a low risk setup with a sizable win/loss ratio.



SLV – Silver ETF Trading Fund
Silver is in the same boat as its big sister (Yellow Gold). We just need to wait for a high probability setup to present its self before putting any of our hard earned money to work.



USO – Crude Oil Fund
USO has provided some great short term gains for anyone who used my analysis from my Sunday night report. The quote and chart below covers my thoughts for USO.

Sunday night report:
“Oil broke down out of its bull flag last week and is currently testing both trend line support and horizontal support levels. We could see a short term bounce here to the $37, 38 or 40 levels. Taking money off the table at each resistance level and raising your stop is an important money management strategy I use for this type of play.”



UNG – Natural Gas Trading Fund
Natural gas is still very much a speculative play as everyone thinks they will make huge money from this commodity.

This means two things in my opinion:
1. It’s still headed lower
2. After rallies the sellers jump back in.

UNG is trading near resistance and it could provide a great shorting opportunity in the coming days.



ETF Trading Conclusion:
Although it’s been a quite week in the market, I have really enjoyed it. Not sure if it is related to everything unfolding in a controlled manner or the holiday season nearing, or maybe both?

November and December have been quiet for our ETFs but I know we are on the verge of either a large move up or down in the coming weeks. Let’s watch the market and funds unfold and see if we can get another trade or two in before year end.

Just click here to receive Free ETF Trading Newsletter from Chris Vermeulen The Gold And Oil Guy.









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Where is Crude Oil Headed on Thursday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.








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Crude Oil Closes Higher, Above the Critical 10 Day Moving Average

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday and above the 10 day moving average crossing at 72.24 thereby signaling that a short term low has likely been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish with this week's rally signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.89 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 68.16 is the next downside target.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 73.55
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.89

First support is Monday's low crossing at 68.59
Second support is the 87% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 68.16

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

Natural gas closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If January extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 5.807 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.949 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.569
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 5.807

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.080
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.949

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The U.S. Dollar closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends its current rally, the reaction high crossing at 77.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.91 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the Dollar.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 77.57
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 77.82

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.52
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.91

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