Friday, December 4, 2009

Crude Oil Bears Appear to Have The Upper Hand


Crude oil was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If January extends the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 70.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.96 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Friday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 76.50

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.95
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.96

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 72.39
Second support is the 75% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 70.23

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Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If January extends this week's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.157 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.819 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

Nat gas pivot point for Friday is 4.499

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.781
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.819

First support is Thursday's low crossing at 4.432
Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.157

What do all market wizards have in common?

The U.S. Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidated some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 73.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.40 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.14
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.40

First support is last week's low crossing at 74.55
Second support is monthly support crossing at 73.39

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