Last Week's Volatility Could Be A Harbinger Of Things To Come

There's a war going on right now and I don't mean overseas, I mean right here in the markets. Last week was a perfect example as the intraday swings of the S&P500 clocked in at a staggering 6.5%. Market volatility often is a precursor of things to come, and the irony of all this action was that the market closed with a loss of -0.65% for the week.

The net weekly change for the DOW was -0.53% and there was an even smaller loss of -0.42% for the NASDAQ. All three indices formed an important Japanese candlestick pattern, a weekly doji candle. Why is this important? A doji candlestick often signals indecision in the market. When the doji forms in an uptrend or downtrend, this is normally seen as significant, as it is a signal that the buyers are losing conviction when formed in an uptrend and a signal that sellers are losing conviction if seen in a downtrend.

What To Watch For This Week

A lower weekly close would indicate to me that the buyers are beginning lose control of this aging bull market. Here is the "line in the sand" for each of the indices that I am watching. Once below this line, watch for heavy liquidation to come in across the board.

DOW: 17.262 S&P500: 1,992 NASDAQ: 4.090

Gold Is Now Officially On The Move

You might remember on January 7th, I wrote a post on gold (FOREX:XAUUSDO) and the key neckline level. The key neckline in gold was broken to the upside last Friday when gold closed out the week with a very positive 2.9% gain. I now have a confirmed upside target zone of $1,340, which equates to about $132-$134 on the ETF, GLD. To follow all of the entry and exit points for gold, check in daily with the World Cup Portfolio.

How High Can The Dollar Go?

The U.S. Dollar Index (NYBOT:DX) continues to push higher against most currencies with another weekly gain of 0.85% in the Dollar Index. The question on everyone's mind is, how high can the dollar go without a correction? To this observer, it appears that there are technical storm clouds gathering that could spell trouble for the dollar. Take a look at the RSI indicator and check out the negative divergence that is building on the weekly charts. If you are long the dollar, you might want to review and tighten your stops.

How Low Can Crude Oil Go

That's a question better asked to Saudi Arabia as they continues to keep their oil spigots open to the world. Here is my analysis, the trend is down and picking bottoms or tops in markets is not a high percentage game. Before crude oil (NYMEX:CL.H15.E) changes trend, it needs to begin to base out and find a floor. I will leave picking bottoms to others. Meanwhile, the trend is your friend.

Have a Different View?

I invite your comments, pro or con. As always, we appreciate your feedback.

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Every success with MarketClub,
Adam Hewison 
President, INO.comCo-Creator, MarketClub



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New Video: This Weeks Nasdaq Shorting Opportunity

It looks as though the Nasdaq is about ready for another leg lower. Chris Vermeulen shows us what key resistance levels to look at for a possible short trade on the Nasdaq this week.

Get These Trade Alerts Every Week with Chris Vermeulen's ETF Trading Newsletter
 



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Marc Faber: Don’t Keep Your Gold and Silver in the U.S.

Gloom, Boom and Doom Report publisher Marc Faber discusses the fragile state of the U.S. and global financial systems. How rising inflation will affect the average American. How soon the bubble will burst and why gold and silver will triumph.  

 

Here are a few highlights:

 

“The U.S. is a country that likes to create trouble, but they don’t like to clean up things.”

“We’ve now been five years into the bull market and the U.S. economy bottomed out in June 2009. We already had a crack up boom—not in the economy of the typical household, but in the economy of the "super well to do people", whose asset prices rose dramatically and as a result created a huge wealth inequality.”

“My view would be that we have already printed so much money, and to accelerate it will be bringing about numerous other problems, so my time frame is that the [bubble], maximum, will burst in three years’ time.”

“Once the collapse happens, the power of central banks will be curtailed greatly because people will realize who brought along first the Nasdaq bubble in 1999: The Federal Reserve. Who brought about the housing bubble between 2001 and 2007? The Federal Reserve. And who is bringing now along another great credit bubble and asset bubble? The Federal Reserve.”

“I don’t think that anything is very cheap, but if I have to compare different asset prices, say real estate, stocks, bonds, commodities, gold, art, and so forth—and old cars—then I think that gold and silver [are] relatively inexpensive because they have had big corrections already, and you should not forget that the global bond market now is over $100 trillion.”

The article Don’t Keep Your Gold and Silver in the US, Says Marc Faber was originally published at Casey Research

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Why has it been hard to make money as a trader?

When you look forward to the next 12 months, do you want your trading results to be different than they are now? In fact, most traders today are feeling frustrated and disappointed with their trading performance.

But truthfully, it’s not your fault…

You see, most of the popular trading strategies of the 80s and 90s are not working today. In fact, they stopped working in the year 2000.

And surprisingly, many trading educators are still teaching them (and too many traders are still using them!) Why? Because they don't know where else to turn.

However, there’s a small community of traders who did find a way to achieve consistent profits in these markets and they're doing it by using a secret trading methodology that ís been proven to work for over 100 years!

Amazing when you really think about it, the only difference between now and then is the revealing way in which they've perfected the methodology for reduced risk, increased profitability, and more consistency.

Watch the proof here. Watch "PowerStock Strategies....are you Ready?

Why Investors Must Be Cautious At These Prices

Last week on October 8th the financial market experienced a broad based sell off. Every sector was down with utilities being the only exception.

The individual leadership stocks, which are typically small to mid-cap companies (IWM – Russell 2K) that have a strong history and outlook of earnings growth, were hit hard as well.

Whenever the broad market experiences a price correction, one of the most important factors I analyze is how well leading stocks hold up and show relative strength to the broad market.

So, where does this leave us going forward?

When stocks that have been leading the market higher and only pausing during market corrections in the S&P500, Dow, and NASDAQ, it’s a positive sign. This tells us investors and big money continues to flow into the risk on assets (stocks).

Conversely, when these leading stocks/sectors begin succumbing to the selling pressure of the broad market, it quickly grabs my attention and tells us it’s time to be aware that a major top may be forming.

It looks as though the broad market rally is just barely hanging on. If the leading stocks and sectors begin breaking below their 50 day moving averages, my proprietary SP500 Market Timing & Trading System will shift to sell mode and things could get ugly for those who do not know how to trade a bear market.

Here's our chart work including videos for "Why Investors Must Be Cautious At These Prices"



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NASDAQ Flash Freeze and Digesting the FOMC Minutes

The U.S. stock indexes closed higher today. The Nasdaq was shut down for three hours in the afternoon, and that took some buying interest away from all the indexes. The stock index bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage, but are fading. The market place had some time to digest Wednesday afternoon's FOMC minutes that revealed no clear consensus from FOMC members on when to start to wind down the Fed's monthly bond buying program, also known as quantitative easing.

While the minutes were not all that different from the last minutes of the FOMC that were released several weeks ago, the “take away” the market place garnered from this latest Fed event was that “tapering” of quantitative easing is coming, and likely sooner rather than later. The FOMC minutes reinforced ideas that the long, long road of very easy money from the world's major central banks will reach an end in the coming months. Such was deemed bullish for the U.S. dollar, and bearish for world bond markets and periphery currencies. U.S. 10 year note yields hit a two year high of 2.925% overnight. German and U.K. bond yields also hit multi year highs overnight. Asian currency and financial markets remained strained Thursday.

The Indian rupee and Turkish lira hit new record lows versus the U.S. dollar Thursday. Indian and Indonesian central bank officials have taken steps to stabilize their currencies, but with only very limited success. There are worries about an “Asian contagion” that has in the past roiled markets worldwide. Rising interest rates in the major world economies have put pressure on the periphery currencies. Chinese manufacturing data Thursday showed improvement from the prior month.

The HSBC purchasing managers index rose to 50.1 in August from 47.7 in July. A reading over 50.0 suggests economic growth. China is the world's second- largest economy, but the leading worldwide importer of many key raw commodities. The China data somewhat assuaged the Asian markets, but the concerns of an Asian contagion outweighed the positive China data. Traders and investors have moved the ongoing Egypt unrest to the back burner for the moment, as there are no major, new developments there.

However, any escalation in violence is likely to impact the market place. News reports that Syria has used chemical weapons against its civilians, with hundreds killed, is a matter that will be closely monitored by the market place, and is yet another geopolitical hotspot that could flare up to become a major markets factor.

So why not consider adding this simple set up in the Crude Oil market?

Seven Keys in Timing Stock Market Tops – Part II

Timing stock market tops and bottoms is risky business and we all know the more the more risk we take the more potential gain would could also made. Correctly timing a top or bottom for any investment is flat out exciting not to mention financially rewarding. But this high risk trading tactic does come with some major issues which you must FULLY understand so that you can protect your capital and self confidence.

On May 13th I wrote a special report on how to spot market tops just before they happen and how to do it with a very high probability of success. I also explain the major pit falls to be aware of so you stay on the right side of the market.

I recommend you read this special report right now.... "How to Spot and Time Stock Market Tops"

That special report truly showed you what was going to happen a few weeks before it did. Much like how this report shows you what is likely to happen in June.

Looking at the market with my YOU ARE HERE type of using cycles, volume, price patterns and momentum to forecast what is likely to unfold in the coming weeks. Depending on the time frame used for my analysis I can figure out with a high probability where price will be in a few minutes, hours or days also. Mall Market Directory – You Are Here

Stock market tops are tough to trade and time. That is because there are so many things happening in the media and emotions running wild that it’s tough to get a grasp on what you should really be focusing on to keep a level head trade around it.

Market tops are typically not an event but rather a progression that takes much longer than most individuals expect. I still find myself jumping the gun at times and I know this and have been through this process hundreds of times in various investments. The human brain is a powerful tool but emotions can force you to override your rules/strategy still.

Stop Fighting! – Bulls & Bears are BOTH Correct at this Stage

It does not matter where you go to get your stock market news and reports… Everyone is arguing their bullish or bearish case more than EVERY. There is a reason for this and it’s because the SP500, DJIA, RUT and NASDAQ appear to be entering a cycle top. What does this mean? It means the uptrend is almost over from a technical analyst point of view, and those who are have been bearish for a long time feel the market topping out more now than ever in their gut that this is the top.

Keeping it simple removing news, economic data, emotions and biases we are left with one thing which is technical analysis. This is based on price alone and that is important to remember because the only thing that pays you money for an investment is when price moves in your favor. Believe it or not price only has blips on the charts here and there which is based off news, economic data etc… In the big picture stock prices tend to lead economic data by several months and in some cases years.

So the big question is this… If price action is the only thing that pays you when trading why bother worrying about all the other opinions, news out there. That stuff only adds to the confusion and in most cases gets you on the wrong side of the market.

Timing the Market Top Conclusion:

In short, from a technical point of view the SP500 remains in an uptrend. But according to technical analysis the upside momentum is starting to slow. If we get a few more down days then the trend will flip and be down but it has not yet happened.

When the trend does reverse down you must remember that 80% of the time price will bounce back up to test near the recent highs before truly rolling over and collapsing. Think of it like a zombie movie. Just when you think you killed one it comes back to life for one last scare before its dead.

Just to touch on stock market bottoms so you do not get confused. Stock market bottoms are little different than tops so they are traded differently. I will cover them when the time comes.

Trading the market is not easy during this type of condition, which is why members and myself got long SSO on the 23rd and two days later sold out for a 3.5% gain. I am now looking to reload this week for another bounce/rally play but only time will tell if we get another setup.

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Adam's Video Update: Gold and Crude Oil Prices Head South

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, President of INO.com and Co-creator of MarketClub, with your mid day market update for Friday, the 12th of April.

Gold
Gold (XAUUSDO) continues to come under pressure and is going to close out the week on a negative note. It would appear as though nobody wants to hold gold anymore. The gold market is close to a key area of support around the $1,500 area. A close below that area today does not auger too well for this market. Rumors that Cyprus is selling gold to improve its bank balances is also adding downside pressure on an already depressed market. We will be checking in on gold today and analyzing just how far this market can go from here.

Watch Today's Video Update Here

Crude Oil
The crude oil market (CL.M13.E) flashed another negative Trade Triangle this morning is quickly entering a critical juncture were it needs to find support. At the moment, we are in choppy trading markets that are indicative of potential trend changes in the future. We will be jumping into the oil patch today and analyzing just what's going on with this market using our Trade Triangle technology.

The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ
The key thing in trading is not to fight the major trend, the odds favor letting the trend develop and then move with the trend. At the beginning of 2013, many analysts were thinking the fundamentals and debt load was too great for stocks to move higher. Since that time, we have seen double digit moves in the major indices.

Using our Trade Triangle technology, we were able to capture 95% of the move up and remain positive on the market. Providing that the Fed keeps pumping money into the system to the tune of $85 billion a month, will the market continue to move higher? On the other hand, markets have a tendency to over shoot both on the upside and downside. Technical analysis can help in deciphering when the market is changing course.

Bailout Nation
Once again, Cyprus is in the headlines over confusion with the state of the financial bailout and it has led to some sharp moves in European markets this Friday. The negative market action wiped out most of the positive reaction and the better-than-expected Euro-zone industrial production figures. The story on Cyprus has not yet been written and I still believe that Cyprus is the tip of the iceberg for Europe.

Watch Today's Video Update Here

Potential Chaos Ahead
North Korea - ticking down towards ...
Japan - Kuroda is the king risk
Europe - Portugal and Ireland - economic risk
The Fed - Hints QE is coming to an end
May 19th – Debt ceiling suspension expire

Have a great trading day,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub

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Adam Hewison: Don’t Underestimate Yesterday’s Market Action

Yesterday’s action in the equity markets is a grim reminder of just how fragile the economic and financial system is globally. We would not dismiss the market action as just another pullback in the market.

The sharp down move should not be ignored, in my opinion. We are looking at a key support level on the S&P 500 at $1220. A close below that level will accelerate the decline to the next key level of support, which is $1180. That move may have to wait until Friday as traders jockey for positions today. For the year, the S&P at the moment is down, the NASDAQ is flat, and the DOW is barely higher with gain of 3%.

The copper market gave a pretty strong negative signal yesterday, as it moved below the $3.50 level. The copper market is telling us that demand is just not there for this industrial metal. For some time now, we have been discussing the trials and tribulations of Europe and all the drama that has become a Greek tragedy. The fact that they have a new prime minister in Greece does not change one thing, in my opinion.

Italy is now the star of the show, and we are not convinced that Prime Minister Berlusconi is going to step down off his pedestal anytime soon. Politicians still have a “quick fix” mentality and are counting on that to solve this mega financial mess. The reality is, there is no quick fix. It is going to take years for this mess to be cleaned up, and in all likelihood it will get ugly.

The best thing a trader can do at the present time is to watch the market action, as it will tell you exactly what to do. We believe the rest of this week is going to be a very important one, particularly where we close tomorrow. If we have a negative close on Friday below $1220 on the S&P 500, we would then expect to see this index move lower for the balance of November.

Now let's take a look at our trend analysis for crude oil........

We suspect that the crude oil market, basis the December contract, will have problems between the $97 a barrel to $100 a barrel level. With a Chart Analysis Score of +70, this market may be trying to move out of its broad trading range and reach the $100 mark. The $100 level represents a 61.8% retracement of the entire down move starting from the highs seen earlier this year in April. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines. Long term traders should continue to be short the crude oil market.


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How to Gauge the Equities Market so You Don’t Buy to Early!

From Chris Vermeulen at The Gold and Oil Guy......

Over the years I have found an indicator/trading tool which I find help spot intermediate trend reversals. I am going to quickly cover in this report. As most of you know the 20 simple moving average is a great gauge for telling you if you should be looking to buy the dips or sell the bounces. It’s an indicator I keep on the broad market charts like the SP500, Dow and NASDAQ.

The chart below shows the percentage of stocks trading above the 20 moving average. When this indicator falls below 20%, I make sure I start to protect my short positions with more aggressive protective stops and keep an eye on short term sentiment, volume ratios, options and price action as a bottom can take place at any time and very quickly. Bottoms tend to be more of an event happening quickly with a washout/panic selling day followed by a sharp rally, while intermediate market tops drag out taking weeks if not months to roll over and are very difficult to trade which is what we have been experiencing so far this year.

Mr. Jones once of my trading buddies who focuses strictly on Options Trading has been cleaning up with the current volatility making 21%, 50% and 67% returns on his last threes trades. This guy loves volatility and always seems to have an options strategy for every situation the market dishes out. Check out his service at OptionsTradingSignals.com

As you can see this indicator is currently trading in the lower reversal zone and I feel a bottom will form before March is over.

SP500 Daily Chart
The SP500 continued lower today, which is what I mentioned, would most likely take place in my pre market video this morning. The trading session was a roller coaster with news on Japans reactors causing large waves of buy and selling throughout the day. I have not seen traders follow the news so close like this in some time… Everyone has their fingers hovering over the buy and sell button these days.

Looking at the bottom indicator which is my gauge of panic selling within the market, it has yet to close above 15 which is the minimum number I typically look for before I start zooming into the intraday charts for a long entry (market bottom). We still could see much lower prices before we see that.

Gold 4 Hour Chart
This chart is the same one I showed in my Sunday night report, which explained why gold should test the $1380-1390 level in the coming days. We did see that unfold this week but now the chart is pointing to possibly even lower prices with a support range between $1360-1380 taking place this week. Keep an eye on it as it should be swift if it does occur.

Mid-Week Trend Report:
In short, we are finally getting the correction everyone has been waiting for and now that it’s started and we are short, we must start watching closely for a bottom because they can take place very quickly.

My focus is still on playing the short side but I have my antennas up just in case signs of a bottom start showing up.

If you would like to get my free weekly reports just Click Here to visit The Gold and Oil Guy.Com


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New video: Are These Markets in Trouble?

The recent run up in the markets and the fact that the markets have exceeded some key Fibonacci retracement levels has lured many investors into believing that this will be a "V" shaped recovery this time around.

For months now we have voiced our concerns that all the major indexes are in the "thin air". This new short video explores that and looks at a key Japanese candlestick formation that could really make a difference and be the first clue in the demise of the Dow.

We also want to share with you a specific number to look for in February. Should this level be broken, then it will signal a major reversal to the downside for the Dow.

Just click here to watch the new video and as always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to sign up or register to watch them. Please take a minute to leave a comment and let us know what you think.


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New Video: How Long Will The Dow Stay Bullish?

The Dow jumped to new highs for the year, extending its gains from the lows seen in March.

What does this mean for the future?

The Dow is now within 100 points of being into thin air as it has retraced close to 50% of its down move. The NASDAQ has already done this, and the S&P 500 has come very close to achieving this goal. Clearly the trend continues to be positive for the Dow with today’s new highs. The other two indices, while closing very well and on an upbeat note, must clear their previous highs to start another push to the upside. It remains to be seen whether or not that will take place.

Clearly this is an emotional market that’s been driven more by sentiment then hard economic news.

Having said that, one must take into consideration the perception of the marketplace, and as of right now that perception continues to be friendly towards the long side of these markets.

In our new video we show you some of the key points to look at in terms of where these markets could potentially break down, and possibly reverse to the downside.

Just Click Here to watch the video, and as always please feel free to leave a comment and let us know where you think the Dow is headed.


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Is the NASDAQ Now in Thin Air?

Of the three major indexes we track: DOW, NASDAQ and the S&P 500, only the NASDAQ is in thin air.

What do I mean by thin air? So far the NASDAQ is the only index to make it past the 50% Fibonacci retracement levels as measured from the highs seen in 2007 and the lows that were made in March of this year.

Both the Dow and the S&P 500 have rallied strongly from their March lows but have not made it over the 50% retracement level.

Many professional traders - myself included - are looking at the NASDAQ’s Fibonacci retracement as it represents a potentially key turning point for this year’s market.

While not all the pieces are in place to go short or get out of long positions, one of the first clues is being put in place today by the Japanese candlestick charts.

In our new video, we share with you the NASDAQ retracement levels, as well as one of the key components that could lead to a potential reversal to the downside.

Just Click Here to watch the video, and as always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register.

Please feel free to leave a comment and let our readers know what you think of the video and the direction of the NASDAQ.

Serious Near Term Chart Damage Inflicted on Crude Oil

Crude oil closed down $3.05 at $65.92 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session low again today and hit a fresh nine week low. Serious near term chart damage was inflicted today as prices saw a big and bearish downside "breakout" from the recent trading range at higher price levels. Crude bears now have the near term technical advantage.

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Natural gas closed up 14.0 cents at $4.894 today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today and hit a fresh six week high. Prices are in a two week old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls gained upside technical momentum today, but have more work to do to suggest prices can continue to trend higher.

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The U.S. dollar index closed up 80 points at 77.09 today. Prices closed near the session high today on a short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 78.00.

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The Nasdaq Cut Open and Broken Down

Since we follow the NASDAQ as a market direction indicator and crude oil future demand concerns rely on the markets right now we thought it would be a good idea to examine the NASDAQ Index. This market, which made its peak in 2000 at the height of the dot com bubble, remains in a secular bear market.

After making a low in March of 2001, this market has had multi-year recovery which has rallied it very close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement level. After a nearly 50% recovery, this market now appears to be faltering.

The months of September and October are now with us and both of these months tend to be treacherous for the equity markets. We would not be surprised to see more of a two way trading market before it eventually falls on its own weight and resumes a downward path. This is what we expect to happen, however, we are going to rely on our Trade Triangle technology to give us the perfect timing for that event.

Click Here For Today’s Video and we will show you graphically what we expect to happen to the NASDAQ Index.

New Video: Major Signal Issued on The Nasdaq

They Say That Timing In Life Is Everything. Today we witnessed an important “Trade Triangle” signal in this major index that should not be ignored.

In our new video, we share with you this same signal that thousands of MarketClub members witnessed and will discuss some of the potential downside targets for this index.

This is a video that is worth watching as we think we should all be prepared for what lies ahead.

There is no need to register for this video and of course you can watch it with my compliments. Enjoy the video and please give us your feedback on our blog.

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Double Tops and Pivot Points Explained

Today we want to share with you a chart pattern that the pro’s use everyday to great effect. The chart pattern we will be looking at, is one of my favorites as it has a high reliability factor.

The chart pattern in this short video is well known inside the professional trading community. However, outside of the pro circle it seems to be shrouded in mystery.

In this short 3 minute video, we peel away the layers of mystery and show you step by step how you can personally benefit from this chart pattern that occurs in all time frames.

What’s amazing to me about this chart pattern, is the fact that after over 3 decades of real world trading, it continues to repeat itself.

Click Here To Watch The Video

With that fact on our side, we think it’s a safe bet that this chart pattern is likely stick around for the next generation of traders.

Please feel free to leave a comment to let us know what you think of the video.

The Psychology of Commodity Price Movement

From guest blogger Adam Hewison...

The price of a futures contract is the result of a decision on the part of both a buyer and a seller. The buyer believes prices will go higher; the seller feels prices will decline. These decisions are represented by a trade at an exact price.

Once the buyer and seller make their trade, their influence in the market is spent except for the opposite reaction they will ultimately have when they close the trade. Thus, there are two aspects to every trade: 1) each trade must ultimately have an opposite reaction on the market, and 2) the trade will influence other traders.

The price of a futures contract is the result of a decision on the part of both a buyer and a seller. The buyer believes prices will go higher; the seller feels prices will decline. These decisions are represented by a trade at an exact price.

Once the buyer and seller make their trade, their influence in the market is spent except for the opposite reaction they will ultimately have when they close the trade. Thus, there are two aspects to every trade: 1) each trade must ultimately have an opposite reaction on the market, and 2) the trade will influence other traders.....Read Complete Article

Crude Oil High Range Close Sets Up Possible Higher Open Thursday

Crude Oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the Tuesday's rally above the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.34 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 71.79
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 68.12
Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.34

New Video:The #1 Predictor of Inflation or Deflation.

Natural Gas closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it extends this week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If July renews last month's decline, April's low crossing at 3.395 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.945 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.88
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.95

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.55
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.50

Trading Video: “How Low Can The Dollar Go”

The U.S. Dollar closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near term.

If June extends the rebound off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 83.33 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 81.53
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.33

First support is today's low crossing at 79.48
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 78.18

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Crude Oil Bulls Still Have The Technical Advantage

July crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this spring's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 58.54 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 62.97

First resistance is today's high crossing at 63.82
Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 68.49

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 60.57
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 58.54

US Energy Dept Oil Inventories 11:00 AM ET.

Crude Oil Stocks...................368.52M
Crude Oil Stocks...(Net Change)....-900K....-2.11M
Gasoline Stocks....................203.95M
Gasoline Stocks...(Net Change).....-2M......-4.34M
Distillate Stocks..................148.13M
Distillate Stocks...[Net Change)...+1.2M....+672K
Refinery Usage.....................82%......81.8%

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The June Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.

If June extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 78.77 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.46 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.28
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.46

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 79.90
Second support is weekly support crossing at 78.77

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The June S&P 500 index closed lower on Wednesday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near term.

From a broad perspective, June needs to close above 929.00 or below 875.40 to clear up near term direction in the market.

Thursday's pivot point for the SP 500 is 899

First resistance is today's high crossing at 913.80
Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 923.20

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 876.90
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40