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Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders

Transportation Index Warns of Trouble Ahead

Any weakness in the Transportation Index near current levels would indicate investors and traders believe the global economy may continue to contract going forward and may be an ominous sign for the global stock markets.

The Transportation Index is a measure of the current expectations related to shipping, trucking, trains and all measure of forward expectations for goods, products and raw materials to be moved across nations, seas, states, and locations. When the economy is gaining strength, we typically expect to see the Transportation Index moving higher. When the economy is weakening, we typically expect to see the Transportation Index moving lower.

Since the peak in September 2018, the Transportation Index has moved much lower to establish a base near $8625 in December 2018. After that base formed, a series of price rotations pushed the Transportation Index up to $11,148, where it peaked, then began to trail a bit lower since May 2019. Our concern is that the Support/Resistance level, highlighted by the GREEN rectangle on this Weekly chart, represents a critical historical price that must be breached before any renewed strength in the global markets will be seen.

After the G20 meeting, last weekend, and the rally in the U.S. stock market on Monday, we were a bit surprised that the Transportation Index failed to move dramatically higher following the global markets. This leads us to believe investors were taking advantage of a pricing issue related to the G20 and US/China trade war news that was not rooted in strength seen in the global economy. In other words, buy the rumor, sell the news. It would appear the rumor hit the markets Sunday in Tokyo and the news hit the U.S. markets on Monday.

We talked about the G20 meeting results and how G20 will move gold and the U.S. stock indexes.

Skilled technical traders already know we must be cautious near these current all time highs. Volatility can increase dramatically on news or other earnings data which may drive prices higher or lower over the next few weeks. As we start July (Q3) 2019, we should be preparing for earnings data to be released over the next 30+ days as well as continued news related to global trade issues. Additionally, the items which will be sold for Christmas and the holidays are already being shipped across the globe and being distributed to warehouses over the next few months prior to the start of the holiday season.

Historically, July through September are somewhat weak for the Transportation Index. Overall, the Transportation Index loses approximately 500 to 600 points over this 90 day span with a range (potentially) of over $3000 points in volatility. Bullish trending strength returns in October and November where the Transportation Index typically rallies approximately $5000 pts with a volatility range of about $7000 points. These historical trends suggest we could see quite a bit of volatility over the next 90 days with a decent chance at seeing a downward price move targeting recent December 2018 lows.

Concluding Thoughts

In previous articles, we’ve suggested a simple trade setup technique we use to identify entry and exit points – the 100% Fibonacci Extension Move. If this move holds true for the Transportation Index, then a move to levels near $8250 is about to unfold based on the move from Sept 2019 to Dec 2019. It would make sense that this move would likely happen between now and September 2019 – followed by a solid rally into the end of 2019 as our historical data suggests.

Now is the time to stay on top of these moves and to target the opportunity these bigger price rotations provide for technical traders. Simply put, we have just described a downside price move of about $2000 points in the Transportation Index followed by an upside price move of over $4000 to $5000 points. You don’t want to miss this one, folks.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these super cycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short term swing trading and long term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life changing if handled properly.

I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2 year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.

Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders

Waiting for the Russell 2000 to Confirm the Next Big Move

While we have recently suggested the US stock market is poised for further upside price activity with a moderately strong upside price “bias”, our researchers continue to believe the U.S. stock markets will not break out to the upside until the Russell 2000 breaks the current price channel, Bull Flag, formation. Even though the U.S. stock markets open with a gap higher this week, skilled traders must pay attention to how the Mid-Caps and the Russell 2000 are moving throughout this move.

As we continue to advise our clients that the upside pricing cycle in the U.S. stock market is being underestimated, see this research post: we also believe that increased volatility and price rotation will continue to drive larger rotations in price before the final breakout upside move takes place. We want to continue to warn traders that we still don’t have any confirmed upside breakout with price continuing to stay within this price channel in the Russell 2000. Eventually, when and if the price does breakout to the upside, we will have a very clear indication that continued higher prices and a larger upside move is happening. Until then, we need to stay cautious about the types and levels of rotation that continue within the markets.

Recently, volatility has started to increase as can be seen in this VIX chart. If the Russell 2000 is not able to break this trend channel with this current upside price move, then we fully expect continued price rotation in the U.S. stock markets and another increase in the VIX as this rotation takes place. The NQ recently rotated downward by nearly 4% while historical volatility continues to narrow. When volatility diminishes in extended price trends, we’ve learned to expect aggressive price rotation can become more of a concern. We expect the VIX to spike above 16~18 on moderate volatility as we get closer to the cycle inflection date near June/July 2019.

Volatility Index – VIX chart by TradingView

Overall, our researchers believe the upside price bias in the U.S. stock market will continue for another 30+ days as our research and predictions regarding precious metals and the longer term equities price cycles continue to play out. Skilled traders need to be aware that this upside price bias may include larger price rotation and volatility as we get closer to the May/June/July 2019 cycle inflection points. Stay aware of the risks as 4~6%+ price rotations should be expected over the next 30+ days throughout this upside price bias.

Do you want to find a team of dedicated researchers and traders that can help you find and execute better trades in 2019 and beyond? Please visit The Technical Traders to learn how we can help you prepare for the big moves in the global markets and find better opportunities for greater success in the future. Our team of researchers and traders continue to scan the markets for new trades and unique opportunities.

Has Gold Reached Upside Resistance Near $1340 - 1360?

Our research has indicated that precious metals should be setting up for a period of rotation and sideways trading over the next 20-30 days. We issued a research post on January 28, 2019 warning that precious metals would be consolidated over a 30-45 day period before setting up for a massive upside price move, here. This research was based on our Adaptive Dynamic Learning price modeling system and from our Adaptive Learning Cycles system. We believe this research is still very valid and want to alert metals traders that resistance in GOLD can be easily identified near $1340-1360.

The Weekly gold chart, below, highlights the resistance channel that originates in 2016 and continues with multiple peaks in 2017, 2018 and now. We believe this resistance will act as a price ceiling over the next few weeks before metals prices attempt an upside breakout as we suggested in our January 28 research post.

Pay attention to the Fibonacci downside projected price targets near $1270-1295. These levels are very likely to be retested if the current resistance level holds. In other words, gold prices rotate back to below $1300 on moderate price rotation over the next 30 days before attempting to break resistance and move higher. Be prepared for a potential “washout high” price pattern setting up early this week.

We are still actively seeking a deeper price rotation/retracement in Gold/Silver before we initiate any new trades. We believe the upside pricing pressure has reached a level that will prompt a move back to below $1300 on healthy price rotation. If we are wrong, we will know soon enough. If we are right, then the momentum rally setup that will occur near or below $1300 will be a great trading opportunity for all investors. Follow our research to stay informed of this future price movement.

We believe 2019 and 2020 will be incredible years for skilled traders and we are executing at the highest level we can to assist our members. In fact, we are about to launch our newest technology solution to better assist our members in creating future success.

Visit The Technical Traders to learn more.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

Here We Go - Get Ready for the Breakout Pattern Setup

We are writing this post today with a few forward-looking expectations while attempting to warn traders that some extended rotation is likely to enter the markets over the next 30+ days. If you’ve been following our research, you’ll know that we’ve been calling these move months in advance of other researchers and analysts. Our September 17, 2018 research post highlighting our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive modeling system suggested the U.S. stock markets were poised for a massive price rotation followed by a very unique price setup that we are experiencing now.

Currently, the YM (Dow Futures Contracts) are leading the pack on a dramatic upside breakout move. This is likely a result of the US government spending bill that is recently working its way towards approval and the fact that this new spending bill clears the way for at least 8+ months of uninterrupted market optimism (or at least we hope). This 300+ point upside move clearly breaks price highs and puts the U.S. stock market, at least the Dow/Blue-Chips, back into “new high trending mode”. As many of you are likely aware, our Fibonacci price study teaches us that price must ALWAYS seek to establish new price highs or new price lows AT ALL TIMES. Thus, these new price highs are a very strong indication that the upside trend is dominant and should continue for a while.

Additionally, we want to highlight what we believe will be a similar price pattern to 2015/2016 in the U.S. markets – a multiple Price Wedge formation that could ultimately set up another price leg (which we believe will be higher, to the upside, at this time).

In the next article “PART II” pay close attention to the charts and images as we are attempting to clearly illustrate how and why price rotation is about to hit the US markets and why you need to be prepared for this move.

We continue to read that large amounts of capital are sitting on the sidelines or have been pulled from the markets over the past 12+ months. We understand this as the rotation in early 2018 frightened many investors and the continued sideways price action, global market concerns and geopolitical issues have caused international investors to want to protect their investments from risk – thus they move their capital into cash. We get it. But we also believe the next breakout in the U.S. markets will be a great opportunity for skilled traders to identify and prepare for an incredible profit potential no matter which way the market breaks up or down because technical analysis allows us to closely follow the direction of the market.

The amount of capital that is sitting on OUTSIDE the markets, currently, represents a massive amount of resources that could re-enter the markets when traders/investors decide the timing is right. We’ve termed this a “Capital Shift”.

In simple terms, it reflects capital/cash moving from one market to another or from actively invested to cash, then back to actively invested. Our belief is that capital operates in a manner to always protect itself from risk while attempting to identify suitable returns. The best environment for capital is always a relatively safe investment with protective values and a high probability of decent returns. Therefore, this massive amount of capital not being deployed in the global markets will, at some time, re-enter the markets and will likely increase pricing valuations.

How and when will this capital re-enter the markets? What will price activity look like and how will we know when the timing is right for our own strategic deployment of our trading capital? Continue reading to learn why we believe we are only 30~45 days away from an incredible trading setup. You won’t want to miss this one.

Please take a minute to visit The Technical Traders to learn how we can help you find and execute better trade in 2019 and stay ahead of these market moves. We are confident that you will find our Daily Video, Detailed Market Research, Proprietary Research Tools and Detailed Trading Signals will help you make 2019 an incredibly successful year.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

Gold Prices Continue to Breakdown

On January 28, 2019, our research team issued a research post indicating we believed that Precious Metals would rotate lower over the next 45+ days in preparation for a momentum base/breakout that would initiate sometime near the end of April or early May. Recent price weakness in Gold has begun to confirm our analysis and we believe this price weakness will continue for the next 2~4 weeks while traders identify a price bottom and hammer out a momentum base/support level.

Gold is currently down another -1% this week and testing the $1307 level after rotating back to near $1320. Our analysis continues to suggest price weakness in the Precious Metals markets going forward for at least 2~3 more weeks. We are expecting the price of Gold to fall below $1290 and ultimately, potentially, test the $1260 level where we believe true support will be found.

If you’ve been following our analysis, you were alerted the day of when we signaled the top as it formed near $1330 and to close out our GDXJ position for a quick 10.5% profit as we had been preparing for this top and rotation for a couple weeks.

This 240 minute Gold chart highlights our Adaptive Fibonacci price modeling system and suggests the $1295~1302 could become immediate support for this current downside price move.

Please take a minute to review some of our most recent research by visiting The Technical Traders Free Research and to learn why our team of researchers, software developers, and traders provide insight and knowledge that you just can’t get anywhere else on the planet.

The link to our research post, above, highlights our ADL predictive modeling system that is capable of identifying price moves many months in advance. Our most recent U.S. stock market forecast highlights the power and capabilities of our proprietary price modeling tools. As a member of our newsletter, you gain insights, training, daily market videos and many more resources that will help you identify and execute for greater success in 2019.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

Crude Oil Will Find Strong Resistance Between $52 - $55

Our Adaptive Fibonacci modeling system is suggesting Crude Oil may have already reached very strong resistance levels just above $50 ppb. It is our opinion that a failed rally above $55 ppb will result in another downward price move where prices could retest the $42 low – or lower.

You can see from this Daily Crude oil chart that price has formed a consolidated price channel between $50 and $53 ppb. This price channel aligns with a November 2018 price consolidation zone. It is our belief that any advance above $55-56 ppb, will result in a new upward price move to $64-65 ppb.

This Weekly crude oil chart highlights the Fibonacci projected price zones that represent the incredibly strong resistance level currently setup in Crude. The Weekly chart shows a zone between $50-56 as a critical resistance zone. One key element of Fibonacci price theory is that price must always attempt to seek out new highs or new lows as it rotates. Thus, if this current upside move fails to establish new highs above this resistance zone, then it must move lower to attempt to establish new lows. This means the $40 price target is a very viable immediate objective.

Global demand for oil, as well as global economic data, could be key to understand the future demand and price for oil. At this point, a new upper fractal top formation will generate new Fibonacci price targets to the downside. If our opinion proves to be correct, we will learn of these new price targets within a few weeks.

Want to learn how we called the move in Oil from $76 to $43?

Visit The Technical Traders Free Research Right Here to read all of our recent research posts.

We help traders find and execute better trade by using our proprietary tools to keep them informed and to alert them to new trade opportunities. Visit The Technical Traders to learn how we can help you make 2019 a fantastic year.

Chris Vermeulen

What to Expect Within the First 3 to 5 Months of 2019

As we put an end to 2018 we watched the incredible price rotation in the U.S. stock market. Now it is time for traders to take stock of the incredible opportunities that are set up for early 2019 and beyond. Our research team, at The Technical Traders, has put together some truly incredible longer term Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive price modeling system charts that will help you understand and identify incredible opportunities that should play out in early 2019. We know you will not find this type of analysis anywhere else on the planet and we know just how valuable these charts are too skilled traders. So, get ready for some incredible moves – as impossible as they may seem.

Let’s get started with crude oil. This Monthly chart of Crude showing our ADL price modeling system is clearly indicating the first few months of 2019 will include increased price volatility. One thing to pay attention to as we review these charts are the BLUE TRIANGLES, which is where we asked the ADL predictive modeling system for a detailed analysis, and the CYAN, YELLOW, and WHITE DASHED LINES, which is where the ADL system is showing us the highest probability price outcome into the future. On this chart, we can see that the predicted price levels of the past have been relatively close to where the price has closed on each monthly price bar.

Going into the future, we can see 3 to 4 months of price volatility between $50 and $65 (roughly) with rotating higher/lower price objectives. We interpret this as greatly increased price volatility with the potential of supply events disrupting global expectations in oil. These could be intermediate term price rotations that keep the price within our $50-65 price range, or they could be large range, very dramatic price rotations as a result of massive global supply events.

What we can suggest to you, today, is that early 2019 should provide some very interesting short to intermediate term price triggers in oil before price settles back below $50 near June or July 2019.

Next, the Financials/Banks appear to be setting up a very deep “price anomaly” pattern that could become one of the biggest price reversals of early 2019. It is not very often that a 90%+ price move sets up in the markets and this could be just such an event. The ADL predictive price modeling system identifies the highest probability price outcomes by mapping and tracking price and technical setups. You can see from this chart we are asking the ADL modeling system to show us what to expect from the February 2018 price bar.

This price bar is critical because it was a wide range price rotation setup that should be very unique in the ADL DNA mapping. This bar only had 5 similar DNA markers and projected some of the predicted price level, the ones drawn in WHITE, as 50/50 outcomes. The last few outcomes, drawn in YELLOW, reported as 100% probabilities for these predicted target price levels. Therefore, we consider this a very high probability outcome of a very deep “price anomaly” setup that should result in some incredible upside opportunities for skilled traders.

Additionally, if this analysis is correct, the U.S. stock market may, very quickly, rally to attempt to establish new all time highs again in early 2019. This move could happen well before May or June 2019. Be prepared for this move because, currently, there are a bunch of shorts that are predicting a 1929 style market crash. Those shorts are going to get crushed in a massive short squeeze if our ADL predictive modeling results are accurate.

Next, we’ll review the SPY Monthly chart. And, as you can likely see, this chart is similar to the FAS chart above with a very deep price anomaly setup. In fact, you are going to see a few of these types of price anomaly trigger setups in this research post because the very deep downside price move, recently, has prompted these types of price triggers. One thing to consider about price rotation and the recent downside price move is that these types of price swings are very healthy for the overall markets. They act as a method of re-confirming value, support and future expectations by devaluing/deleveraging over extended price levels and shaking up the markets. We think of these types of moves as a “healthy price rotation” that allows the markets to re-establish value and future expectations vs. a type of crisis event.

In addition to this being a very healthy price rotation, we also believe, fundamentally, very little has changed in the past 4+ months in regards to global market events. Europe and China/Asia are still working through their own issues. Credit cycles and global market valuations have been decreasing since early 2018. Overall, the global markets have decreased in value by over 27% since January 2018.

What many traders have failed to understand is that the U.S. markets broke lower on a reaction to the U.S. Fed’s recent rate raises while the rest of the global markets had already experienced a 24% valuation decline. In other words, the U.S. markets broke lower in “capitulation” of expectations that the U.S. Fed may have pushed rates beyond expected boundaries. Now that the U.S. markets have revalued near these recent lows and 2019 is about to start, new expectations are settling into traders minds regarding the current market values and future expectations.

Back to our ADL chart of the SPY, you can see the predicted levels of the ADL system matching with price bars fairly accurately. The current bar, the big red one, is reported as a “neutral probability” (WHITE) target price level which means the ADL system could not determine any viable probability for this price target. The following YELLOW price targets range from 57% probability to 94% probability going out 8+ months. Our interpretation of this is that the current price bar, being a neutral price target near $279.60 reports as a “basis price” in the range of previous price rotation. We believe this level, $279.60, will quickly be recovered in early 2019 before a continued rally pushes prices above $300 sometime around April or May 2019.

Next, one of our favorite charts to gauge the markets and the future expectations of market sectors, the Transportation Index. And, again, you can see a similar price anomaly setup on this chart. The one thing that is very interesting on this chart is that the current price target level for the December 2018 bar has a relatively high ADL probability (68.373%) and the next targeted price level (Jan 2019, near 11,210) has a very high 88.25% probability.

It is our opinion that the Transportation Index will rocket higher in early 2019 and reach levels above 10,800 before the end of March 2019 (possibly much earlier). The ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting that the Transportation Index will stay near 11,500 for much of 2019 and we believe the U.S. stock market and major indexes will reach new all time highs near the start of Q2 2019 and continue to push a bit higher through the middle of 2019.

It is very likely that the U.S. market continues to outperform many other global markets throughout much of 2019 and beyond. We’ve read many expectations that the U.S. markets may fall into some level of “complacency” in 2019, but we are not seeing that in our research. We are seeing the US markets continue to report pricing strength in comparison to other global markets and we believe the US economy will continue to stay strong throughout at least the first 2 to 3 quarters of 2019 – possibly much longer.

Again, this incredible opportunity for skilled traders is showing a potential +23% upside rally that should start in early 2019. Be prepared for some great trades in 2019.

Lastly, the US Dollar. With so many people expecting the US markets to push lower in 2019 and the resulting pressures on the U.S. Dollar (as some analysts expect the Yuan to strengthen while the US Dollar weakens), our ADL predictive modeling systems is suggesting that the US Dollar is currently undervalued by nearly 8%. The early 2019 ADL price targets are near or above $27.50 with the current price being near $25.50. This represents a 7.8% to 8.3% upside price anomaly if our ADL predictive price targets are accurate. This ADL trigger bar, where the BLUE TRIANGLES are on this chart, was a fairly rare price/technical pattern, or DNA marker. It is predicting a 100% probability of these price levels being accurate based on this rare DNA marker. We interpret that outcome as a breakout above $26 in UUP would help to confirm this ADL analysis and the potential that $27.50 to $28.00 is a viable longer term price objective.

Overall, we don’t see any reason to be bearish the U.S. Dollar at the moment. Our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting the U.S. Dollar is currently undervalued by about 8% and is predicting early 2019 upside potential which indicates the potential for greater global currency volatility in the Euro, the Yuan, and other widely held currencies. If out ADL predictive pricing levels are accurate, it would indicate that we are going to see global currency pricing pressures hit many global currencies fairly early in 2019. Possibly, this could be related to some geopolitical event or some type of isolated credit market event (Italy, Spain, EU, China, Asia). Again, we don’t know what the event will be, but we can assure you that our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting the U.S. Dollar will increase in value by about 8% in early 2019.

These incredible setups and opportunities for skilled traders can only be found with our proprietary Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling tool. Call it a New Year’s gift or whatever you want to call it. Within this research article, we’ve shown you what we believe are some of the most incredible trading setups to start 2019 and we’re confident in our model’s ability to accurately find and call these moves. Want to learn what other setups our predictive cycle, Fibonacci and ADL systems are showing us? Want to know what the metals are going to do in 2019? Want to know which sectors are going to move and when? Visit The Technical Traders to learn how we help our members find and execute better trades.

Visit The Technical Traders Free Research to review some of our earlier research posts and to see how we’ve been calling these moves accurately for months.

Want to make 2019 a great year with incredible opportunities for success? Join our other members at The Technical Traders today and make 2019 an incredibly successful year.

Chris Vermeulen

Natural Gas Setup For a Big Move Lower

Our proprietary Fibonacci predictive modeling system is suggesting Natural Gas is about to break down below the $4.30 level and move aggressively toward the $3.05 - 3.25 level. This could be an incredible move for energy traders and a complete bust for existing longs.

This Weekly Natural Gas chart is showing our Fibonacci Predictive modeling system and highlighting the lower support price targets just above $3.00. We believe price weakness will break the $4.30 level very quickly and drive prices well below the $3.40 level – very likely towards support near $3.25 over the next few weeks.

Our Advanced Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive price modeling system is showing similar results. It suggests a major price anomaly is setting up in Natural Gas that will prompt a massive downside price move over the next 2 - 3 weeks before an equally incredible price recovery takes place. The total of this predicted price swing is nearly $2.00 ($1.00 down and then $0.85 back to the upside). If this move takes place as our modeling systems are suggesting, this will drive a massive “washout move” pushing the long traders out of their positions on the way down and then pushing a massive short squeeze on the way back up to near $4.00.

This is the type of price swing that makes for incredible success stories if traders can play this move properly. Pay attention to the fact that the lower predicted levels of our ADL system (shown near $3.20) may not be reached in this downward price swing. Our predictive modeling system is suggesting these are the highest probability price outcome based on its internal price and technical analysis. Still, when one takes a good hard look at this chart, it is easy to see the “price anomaly” setup where the current price of Natural Gas is nearly $0.80 above the currently predicted price levels (shown as YELLOW DASHES) and how the ADL Predictive modeling system is suggesting a big downward move is about to unfold.

Want to keep receiving incredible trade setups like this one and learn how our research team and specialized price modeling systems can help you find and execute better trades? Then please visit Technical Traders Ltd. to learn more about our services and tools. We have been helping traders find and execute better educated trading decisions with our specialized tools and research for years. Visit The Technical Traders Free Research to read all of our most recent public research posts and to see how we’ve been calling these market moves over the past few months.

Chris Vermeulen

U.S. Equities Roar to Life After Elections

Our research team is writing this message to alert all investors and traders of a pending rotation in the U.S. stock market that may happen between now and November 15th. The upside price breakout that is occurring on November 7th, the day after the US mid-term elections, is an incredible display of global investor sentiment regarding the GOP success in the Senate and the continued business friendly expectations originating out of Washington DC. The move, today, shows how clearly a global capital market shift is still engaged in the U.S. markets and how much global investors are counting on the US to drive ROI and economic growth going forward.

Yet, we feel it is important to urge investors that our modeling systems are still suggesting an ultimate price bottom should be setting up near November 8th - 15th and that we could still see a bit of downward price rotation over the next few days before this ultimate price bottom completes. It might be too easy to get caught up in this move, today, and fail to properly understand the price rotation risks that are still active in the time/price horizon.

The ES is currently +48.00 as of the creation of this post (+1.74%). This is an incredible move higher and the 2790 level becomes critical support for the markets as long as price is able to stay above that level.

The NQ is currently +172.50 (+2.45%) and shows just how clearly investors are piling into technology, healthcare and bio-tech after the US elections. This is a real vote from investors that they believe President Trump will be able to navigate any issues going forward and that the US economy will continue to push out strong numbers.

Follow our analysis to read our most recent research posts. We have already positioned our members for this “ultimate bottom” that our predictive modeling systems suggest is in the midst of forming. We called this entire downside move, bottom rotation and the ultimate bottom pattern setting up near November 12th back on September 17. If you want to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades, visit The Technical Traders to learn more.

Chris Vermeulen

Check out Chris' "Three Hour Mastery Trading Course" Right Here

Detailed Map of Expected Price Movement Before the Breakout

Our research team was hard at work over the past few days. Not only were they able to call this downside price swing 3+ weeks in advance, they also called the market bottom within 0.5% of the absolute lows. Now, they have put together a suggested “map” of what to expect in regards to price rotation, support, resistance and the eventual price breakout that we are expecting to happen near or after November 8~12. Today, we are sharing this detailed map with all of our followers.

Our research team, at The Technical Traders, have honed their skills over the past few decades by studying market correlations, price relationships, advanced price modeling and more. Our objective is to be able to identify price patterns, opportunities, and setups while attempting to accurately predict the future of price so that we can keep our followers and members uniquely aware of future opportunities. As you can imagine, it is not an easy job and we often take heat for some of our research posts.

Today, we are sticking out neck out (again) and attempting to predict the future of the ES price rotation as this deeper rotation continues to play out. Our research team believes it has identified key price levels and dates/times that are relevant to this future price rotation. By no means is this research set in stone in regards to exact dates/times. These are suggestions which we believe to be accurate based on our research and analysis of the markets. Use them as guides to how this price rotation plays out.

This first chart is a Daily ES chart that shows three very important components of the current market price rotation.

   *  The Support Zone below the recent lows is actually very critical to the true understanding of price rotation. As long as this support zone is not completely breached, prices should continue to push higher overall.

   *  The Rotation Zone is where we believe the price will continue to consolidate within a fairly tight range before the November 8 - 12 bottom sets up. Volatility will continue to be greater than normal throughout this Rotation Zone.

   *  The post November 8 -12 breakout is likely to attempt to target 3131 initially (a Fibonacci extension target) and we believe this move higher could explode fairly quickly.

Now that we have explained the general sense of our research, let’s dig into the numbers a bit.

Our expectation is that a price peak will occur near early morning trading on October 26 (morning session in NY). We believe this peak will end near 2830 (a Fibonacci 50% retracement level) and we believe an extended basing pattern will precede this price peak. The extended basing pattern, which is expected to end near 2770 (a Fibonacci 25% retracement level) is already starting to form and should last from now until near October 23 or 24. We believe the upside move between the end of the basing pattern and the October 26th peak will be very fast and end fairly quickly – so be prepared.

The October 26th price peak will set up a very important component of our final analysis – the peak-to-peak price channel (highlighted in YELLOW now) and will allow us to determine when and where price volatility predicts the breakout move to occur. Our research team believes another bout of extended basing will occur after the October 26th peak that will likely push just below the 2771 support levels (to near 2750) retesting the Support Zone and presenting a “false low price breakout” pattern that may sucker many longs out of the market (and potentially set up massive short seller pressures in the market). This move may be critical to the eventual upside breakout that we are predicting.

Think of it like this, Fibonacci price theory suggests that price MUST attempt to establish new higher high prices or lower low prices at all times. Failure to accomplish these new price levels results in a consolidating/congesting price trend that typically forms as Pennants or Flags in price. Near the Apex of these pennant/flag formations, false breakouts (or what we call “washout lows or highs”) are common. These are price functions that operate as a “shakeout move” where price searches for direction and where buyers and sellers are stacked on top of one another attempting to ride the next wave. Price MUST attempt to establish a new higher high or lower low – so it must attempt to rally up and break the 2945 level or it must sell off and attempt to break the 2712 level. We expect extreme volatility near or after the November 8 - 12 apex setup. Price could fall deep into the Support Zone before reversing higher with a bigger rally that attempts to run well above the 2945 level.

The vertical blue line is the November 8 date where we expect the absolute bottom to form and where we expect the next big price rally to initiate. Near after this date, we expect the price to rotate with greater volatility and attempt an upside breakout move near or after November 12. The key Fibonacci levels at 2771 & 2829 are certain to become key price rotation levels near this November 8 - 12 price breakout.

At this point, we have outlined some very detailed and structured price rotation levels that should clearly help you understand what is transpiring within the US Equities markets right now. If you take only one thing away from reading this article, please understand the Support Zone that we’ve highlighted on our charts is super critical to the ability for the US Equities markets to continue to push higher. If this level is completely breached by lower prices (prices falling all the way below these price channels on the Daily chart, above), then our predictions of price rotation, extended basing and an ultimate upside price breakout are invalid. This Support Zone MUST hold for our analysis to become valid.

This level of research and understanding as related to technical and price analysis is not something one stumbles upon blindly. This takes years of study, practice, research, and understanding to be able to “see into the future” as we do. Sure, anyone that understands basic trend lines and Fibonacci concepts can draw some lines on a chart – but their overall success rate will quickly illustrate their true understanding of the markets. Take a minute to visit the Technical Traders website and read some of our recent research posts and pay attention to how we accurately predicted a 5 - 8% price correction 3+ weeks before this recent move happened.

Ask yourself, how did we know it was going to happen and how did we know it would stop near 2700? Visit The Technical Traders "Free Research"

To read all of our recent research posts or read how we predicted this downside price move by clicking here: Trading Model Suggests Falling Stock Prices for U.S. Elections

Chris Vermeulen

Let’s Look at the Three Issues That Might Drive Crude Oil Lower

Crude Oil has been a major play for some traders over the past few months. With price, rotation ranges near $5~$7 and upside pressure driving a price assent from below $45 to nearly $75 peaks. This upside price move has been tremendous.

Over the past few weeks, many things have changed in the fundamentals of the Oil market. Supply continues to outpace demand, trade tariffs and slowing global economies are now starting to become real concerns, foreign suppliers have continued to increase production, US Dollar continues to strengthen and social/political unrest is starting to become more evident in many foreign nations.

In fact, we felt so strongly that big downside move in crude oil was about to happen we posted a warning to oil traders two days before the drop started.

When we consider what could happen with oil in the future with regards to over-supply and the potential for constricting global markets, we have to understand that support will likely be identified at levels that are much lower than current price – possibly below $60. Yet, at the same time, we must understand that disruptions in supply and/or regional chaos, such as war or political turmoil, in specific regions could cause the price of oil to skyrocket as these disruptions continue.

RIGHT NOW, THREE KEY ISSUES ARE DRIVING OIL LOWER

* A stronger US Dollar is making it more expensive for foreign nations to purchase Oil on the open market as well as moving capital away from foreign local investments and migrating capital into the US Equities markets

* Supply issues (the increased capacity for greater supply) is resulting in a glut of oil available on the open market when we have dozens of supply ships still waiting to offload throughout the world. In other words, we have an over-supply of oil at the moment.

* A lack of any urgency or crisis event to support Oil above $65 at the moment. Given the slow, but consistent, transition towards cleaner more energy efficient vehicles and energy as well as the lack of any real conflict or crisis event to disrupt supply, it appears there is no real support for Oil above $65 – at least so far.

DAILY CRUDE LIGHT CHART

This Daily Crude Light chart shows a simple price channel that correlates recent price lows into a channel and shows a Fibonacci Retracement range for recent price rotations. We can see that the price of Crude is holding just above the 50% retracement level right now and any breach below $70 would be a very strong downside price breakout. Should price drop below $68, we could see a selloff to below $64 as price may attempt to establish a new “price low” to the downside.

MONTHLY CRUDE CHART

This Monthly Crude chart below shows us where we believe support and resistance price zones are located. You can see from the highlighted areas that resistance is located between $70~86 and support is located between $44~56 on this longer-term monthly chart. You can also see that the Fibonacci retracement levels for the current upside move are currently nearing 55~57% (above the 50% level and nearing the 61.8% level). The combination factor that Crude has recently rotated lower, near the upper price channel, within the resistance zone, above 50% and nearing 61.8% Fibonacci level, strongly suggests that we could see a stronger downside price swing in the near future. Until $60 is breached, consider this move simple rotation. Once $60 is breached to the downside, then consider this a deeper downside price move.

With so many factors in play throughout the world, one has to be aware that Crude Oil is a commodity that correlates to expected economic activities, global crisis events, and supply/demand factors. Right now, an almost perfect storm is setting up for Oil to continue to fall to new lows which will likely push Crude below $60 ppb (eventually) and may push it down to near $55 ppb (our upper support zone). We caution traders/investors through – any crisis news item, war or other disruption in supply could dramatically alter the factor that makes up this price prediction. Right now, without any of these issues, we see Oil continuing to fall towards the $60 price level.

Also, visit The Technical Traders Free Market Research to read all of our most recent free research posts. We believe you’ll quickly see the value in what we provide our members and our visitors by reading and understanding how we have continued to stay ahead of these market moves for months.

53 years experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

Get our advanced research and market reporting, Daily market videos, detailed trading signals and join the hundreds of other traders that follow our research every day and profit.

Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders Ltd.

How to Predict the Maximum Profit on Each Trade - Free Webinar

Every trader discovers this cold hard truth. Your profit isn’t made when you get in a trade, but when you get out. In fact, we constantly receive questions from our readers about how to avoid leaving money on the table in trades.

Sometimes people get out of a trade too early just to watch it take off and turn into a huge winner without them. Other times you watch your profits disappear because you hung onto your position too long. The key to winning trades is managing your position and timing your exit. Easier said than done, right?

That’s why we reached out to our friend John Carter at Simpler Trading. If you’re not familiar with John, he’s a 25 year trading veteran with a track record for spotting big moves and timing trades in the market for maximum profit. He’s also the author of the best selling book for traders, Mastering the Trade.

John is putting on a special free webinar for our readers this Wednesday May 23rd to show us how we can know exactly when to exit a trade for maximum gains.

Claim My Seat Now

John’s been working on something really special, and he’s sharing it with our readers. Plus, he’s going to explain in detail....

   ●   How to Catch the Biggest Turning Points in Real Time

   ●   Why ‘One Size Fits All’ Systems Can Burn Your Account

   ●   How to Get in Earlier on Explosive Moves with Confidence

   ●   The Simple Exit Rule that Can Generate ‘Easy Money’

   ●   How to Rapidly Grow a Smaller Account Part Time

   ●   How to Get Rid of Guesswork from Entries and Exits

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These strategies work whether you’re trading Options, Futures, or any other derivatives. The key is understanding when the market is telling you to get out. You’ll see exactly what I mean on the free webinar.

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See you in the markets!
Ray @ The Crude Oil Trader

P.S. This is going to be one of the most popular webinars we’ve ever had, so make sure you register as early as possible to Secure Your Spot Right Here

This Week's Stock Market Analysis & Warning in Layman's Terms

As you likely know, the stock market, trading, and even long term investing are not easy. That’s why in this post we want to make the complex simple for you. We will do this in a way that will give you that “Eureka!” moment regarding knowing what the stock market is doing now, and where it is headed over the next 12-36 months.

Last August we spotted trends in the underlying financial system that are very early warning signs that the bull market in stocks will be coming to an end, along with this growing economy. There is a ton of data taken into account for this information, but we have broken it down into simple bite size points that simply make logical sense, from a technical analysts perspective.

First Warning

Back in April 2017, we posted an article showing the first set of data that most traders and investors do not see or follow, mortgage delinquency rates. Delinquency rates in Single Family Residential Mortgages and other Consumer Loans began to climb through the second half of 2016 and continue to rise today. We shared with readers a way to take advantage of this using the Real Estate Bear Fund (DRV). This fund is now up over 20% and climbing as it rises when real estate falls. The rise and timing of this delinquency rate increase coincide almost identically with the Fed when they raise rates. And the problem is not just mortgages defaulting, the same is happening with commercial loans, and credit card debt.

Just look at what has the fed being doing like a mad-man of late? Ya, jacking up rates like they are going out of style!

The graph below shows a red line which is the fed rate, and as that rises so do loan delinquency rates (blue line). You will also see the grey shaded areas on the graph, and these are bear markets (falling stock prices). It’s obvious that we are headed towards financial issues once again with debt and the stock market.

Mortgage Rates and Delinquency Rates on the Rise

On March 18th 2018 we post an update showing how real estate foreclosures are starting to rise dramatically! Subscribers to our Wealth Building Trading Newsletter took advantage of this as we got long SRS inverse real estate fund which jumped over 5% in the first two days of owning it.

Second Warning – Asset and Business Cycles

Because we are traders and investors our focus is on making money, so we are only looking at the blue wave/cycle on the diagram below. The blue cycle is the stock market, and the numbers posted along that cycle indicate which stocks/assets should be the most in favor, rising.

As you can see the numbers 9 and 11 at the top are both commodity based (precious metals and energy). And knowing that commodities typically perform well just before a bear market in stocks unfolds, we are on the cusp of a new trade that could last a few months and post significant gains.

COMMODITY PRICE INDEX

Take a look at the commodity index chart below. Without getting to deep in to stage analysis I will just say commodities have formed a very strong “Stage 1” and are primed and ready for a multi-month rally.

Third Warning – Psychology of the Market

This market appears to be in a EUPHORIC “wonderland” moment driven by the fact that the global central banks have created a waterfall event of cheap money that is driving all of this asset valuation recovery. And, as capital is continually searching for the best environment for ROI, it is moving into the best areas of the global economy for survival purposes which we feel should soon be commodity-related assets, then eventually cash once the bear market takes hold.

Stock Market Conclusion

In short, as long as the capital continues to flow into the securities (stocks) and commodities in search for the best return on investment, we will continue to see markets hold up. But, stay cautious because when the markets turn and money is no longer looking for the next top performing sector or commodity, but rather just wants to exit investments as a whole and convert to cash (cash is king), that is when the bear market starts, and it could be very quick and violent.

Additionally, as we’ve shown with these charts and graphs today, we are entering a frothy period in the markets, and we would urge all investors to be critically aware of the risks involved in being blind to these facets of the current stock market and housing bubbles.

With 53 years experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

Could a Bitcoin Blowout coincide with a Major Market Blowout?

Our team of researchers continues to attempt to identify market strengths and weakness in the US major markets by identifying key, underlying factors of the markets and how they relate to one another.

Recently, we’ve been warning of a potentially explosive bullish move in Metals and our last article highlighted the weakness in the Transportation Index as it relates to the US major markets. 

On November 2, 2017, we warned that the NQ volatility would be excessive and that any move near or below 6200 would likely prompt support to drive prices higher as our Adaptive Dynamic Learning model was showing wide volatility and the potential for rotation moves.

This week, we are attempting to highlight a potential move in Bitcoin that could disrupt the global economy and more traditional investment vehicles.  For the past few years, Bitcoin has been on a terror to the upside.  Recently, a 30% downside price rotation caused a bit of panic in the Crypto world.  This -30% decline was fast and left some people wondering what could happen if something deeper were to happen – where would Crypto’s find a bottom.  From that -30% low, Bitcoin has recovered to previous highs (near $8000) and have stalled – interesting.

While discussing Bitcoin with some associates a while back, I heard rumor that a move to Bitcoin CASH was underway and that Bitcoin would collapse as some point in the near future. The people I was meeting with were very well connected in this field and were warning me to alert me in case I had any Bitcoin holdings (which I do).  I found it interesting that these people were moving into the Bitcoin CASH market as fast as they could.  What did they know that I didn’t know and how could any potential Bitcoin blowout drive the global markets?

Panic breeds fear and fear drives the markets (fear or greed).  If Bitcoin were to increase volatility beyond the most recent move (-30% in 4 days) – what could happen to the Crypto markets if a bubble collapse or fundamental collapse happened?

How would the major markets react to a Crypto market collapse that destroyed billions in capital?  For this, we try to rely on our modeling systems and our understanding of the major markets.  Let’s get started by looking at the NASDAQ with two modeling systems (the Fibonacci Price Modeling System and the Adaptive Dynamic Learning system).

This first chart is a Daily Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) model representation of what this modeling system believes will be the highest probability outcome of price going forward 20 days.  Notice that we are asking it to show use what it believes will happen from last week’s trading activity (ignoring anything prior).  This provides us the most recent and relevant data to review.

We can see from the “range lines” (the red and green price range levels shown on the chart), that upside price range is rather limited to recent highs whereas downside prices swing lower (to near 6200 and below) rather quickly.  Additionally, the highest probability price moves indicate that we could see some downside price rotation over the Thanksgiving week followed by a retest of recent high price levels throughout the end of November.

This NQ Weekly chart, below, is showing our Fibonacci price modeling system and the fact that we are currently in an extended bullish run that, so far, shows no signs of stalling.  The Fibonacci Price Breach Level (the red line near the right side of the chart) is showing us that we should be paying attention to the 6075 level for any confirmation of a bearish trend reversal.  Notice how that aligns with the blue projected downside support level (projected into future price levels).  Overall, for the NQ or the US majors to show any signs of major weakness, these Fibonacci levels would have to be tested and breached.  Until that happens, expect continued overall moderate bullish price activity.  When it happens, look out below.

The next charts we are going to review are the Metals markets (Gold and Silver).  Currently, an interesting setup is happening with Silver.  It appears to show that volatility in the Silver market will be potentially much greater than the volatility in the Gold market.  This would indicate that Silver would be the metal to watch going into and through the end of this year.  This first chart is showing the ADL modeling system and highlighting the volatility and price predictions that are present in the Silver market.  Pay attention to the facts that ranges and price projections are rather stable till about 15 days out – that’s when we are seeing a massive upside potential in Silver.

This next chart is the Fibonacci Price Modeling system on a Weekly Silver chart.  What is important here is the recent price rotation that has setup the Fibonacci Price Breach trigger to the upside (currently).  This move is telling us that as long as price stays above $16.89 on a Weekly closing price basis, then Silver should attempt to push higher and higher over time.  The projected target levels are $19.50, $20.25 and $21.45.  Notice any similarity in price levels between the Fibonacci analysis and the ADL analysis?  Yes, that $16.89 level is clearly identified as price range support by the ADL modeling system (the red price range expectation lines).

How will this playout in our opinion with Bitcoin potentially rotating lower off this double top while the metals appear to be basing and potentially reacting to fear in the market?  Allow us to explain what we believe will be the most likely pathway forward…

At first, this holiday week in the US, the markets will be quiet and not show many signs of anything.  Just another holiday week in the US with the markets mostly moderately bullish – almost on auto-pilot for the holidays.  Then closing in on the end of November, we could start to see some increased volatility and price rotation in the metals and the US majors.  If Bitcoin has moved by this time, we would expect that it would be setting up a rotational low above the -30% lows recently set.  In other words, Bitcoin would likely fall 8~15% on rotation, then stall before attempting any further downside moves.

By the end of November, we expect the US markets to have begun a price pattern formation that indicates sideways/stalling price activity moving into the end of this year.  This ADL Daily ES Chart clearly shows what is predicted going forward 20 days with price rotating near current highs for a few days before settling lower (near 2540~2550 through early Christmas 2017).  The ADL projected highs are not much higher than recent high price levels, therefore we do not expect the ES to attempt to push much higher than 2595 in the immediate future.  It might try to test this level or rotate a bit higher as a washout high, but our analysis shows that prices should be settling into complacency for the next week or two while settling near the lower range of recent price activity.

What you should take away from this analysis is the following : don’t expect any massive upside moves between now and the end of the year that last longer than a few days.  Don’t expect the markets to rocket higher unless there is some unexpected positive news from somewhere that changes the current expectations.  Expect Silver to begin to move higher in early December as well as expect Gold to follow Silver.  We believe Silver is the metal to watch as it will likely be the most volatile and drive the metals move.  Expect the major markets to be quiet through the Thanksgiving week with a potential for moderate bullish price activity before settling into a complacent retracement mode through the end of November and early December.

If Bitcoin does what we expect by creating a rotational lower price breakout setup from recent highs, we’ll know within a week or two.  If this $8000 level holds as resistance, then we will clearly see Bitcoin rotate into a defensive market pattern (a flag formation or some other harmonic pattern above support).  The US majors will likely follow this move as a broader fear could begin gripping the markets.

Lastly, as we mentioned last week, pay very close attention to the Transportation Index and it’s ability to find/hold support.  Unless the Transportation index finds some level of support and begins a new bullish trend, we could be in for a more dramatic move early next year.  Our last article clearly laid out our concerns regarding the Transportation Index and the broader market cycles.  All of our analysis should be taken as segments of a much larger market picture.  We are setting up for an interesting holiday season where the market could turn in an instant on fear or news of some global event (like a Bitcoin collapse).  The volatility we are seeing our modeling systems predict is increasing (especially in the Silver market over the next few weeks).  We could be headed for a bumpy ride with a classic top formation setting up.

Overall, protect your investments and your long positions.  Many people will be away from their PCs and away from the markets over the holidays.  It is important that you understand the risks that continue to play out in the markets.  Pay attention to market sectors that are at risk of showing us greater fear or weakness in the major markets.  Pay attention to these increases in volatility and price rotation.  Most of all, pay attention to the market’s failure to move higher over this holiday season because we should be traditionally expecting the Christmas Rally to push equities moderately higher at this time.

Should we see any more clear signs of weakness or market rotation, you will know about it with our regular updates to the public.  If you want to know how Acitve Trading Partners can assist you in staying up to day with the market cycles and analysis, then visit the Active Trading Partners and learn how we can assist you with detailed market research, daily updates, trading signals and more.

We are dedicated to helping you achieve success in the markets and do our best to make sure you are prepared for any future market moves.  See how we can assist you now and in 2018 to achieve greater success.

Chris Vermeulen