Has the Gold Market Topped Out?

That is the big question on many traders’ minds as gold fell from a high around $1,070 to the lows seen on Tuesday.

In our new video that was shot at noon on Tuesday 10/27, we go into detail on what we think is going to happen to this market. We think you will see a refreshing view of the gold market and also the strategies that we’re employing to take advantage of the next big move in gold.

Just Click Here to Watch the Video and as always our videos are free to watch and there is no registration requirement.

Please take a moment to leave a comment and let us know where you think Gold is headed.

New Video: Has the S&P Index Topped Out for the Year?

From Adam Hewison at The MarketClub......

There is compelling evidence that we may have seen a top in the S&P index. In my new short video, I show you the evidence that I have found which may point to the fact that we are going to see a correction in this index.

While the S&P index needs to put in more work to create a major top, there are early signs that this may be happening. I think when you watch this video you will come to the same conclusion as I did in regards to this market.

As always our videos are free to view and require no registration. Please feel free to leave a comment to let us know what you are thinking about the potential top in the SP 500.

Just click here to watch Has the S&P Index Topped Out for the Year?

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Bottoming U.S. Dollar Threatens Crude Oil Rally

Crude oil was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.48 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December extends this month's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 84.83 is the next upside target.

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 79.39

First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 82.00
Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 84.83

First support is Monday's low crossing at 77.97
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.48

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Natural gas was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Monday's close below the reaction low crossing at 5.280 confirms that a short term top has been posted.

If December extends the decline off last week's high, the 62% retracement level of the September-October rally crossing at 4.970 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.581 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at 5.473
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.581

First support is the overnight low crossing at 5.173
Second support is the 62% retracement level at 4.970

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The U.S. Dollar was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.16 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If December renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 73.39 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.16
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 76.85

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.65
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 75.08

Oil Little Changed Around $78 on Forecast U.S. Supplies Grew

Crude oil was little changed around $78 a barrel in New York before a report forecast to show that U.S. crude inventories expanded for a third week. An Energy Department report due tomorrow will probably show that U.S. stockpiles of crude oil rose 1.5 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Analysts forecast that supplies of gasoline and distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, declined last week.

“It’s overvalued and it may be time for a correction,” said Carsten Fritsch, an analyst with Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “The fundamental picture is bearish. Demand outside China is still weak and global stockpiles are ample.” Crude oil for December delivery was at $78.55 a barrel, down 13 cents, at 8:49 a.m. London time. Yesterday, it dropped 2.3 percent to close at $78.68 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest decline since Sept. 24 and the lowest settlement since Oct. 16. Prices have gained 76 percent this year and reached a one- year high of $82 a barrel on Oct. 21......Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas ETF Trading

The past week in gold, silver, oil, natural gas and the broad market wasn’t anything to write home about. We are seeing controlled profit taking which is making the market choppy. Many traders are getting very bearish on the market which is a good thing in my opinion. According to my market internals, sentiment and volume analysis we should get a shake out (sharp dip) which would make traders exit their positions before the market continues higher.

Some trader’s say we are in a bull market, others say we are in a major bear market. Either way the trend is up on the daily and weekly charts and companies are making money. Buying on over sold dips has been very profitable this year. Until I see things drastically change, this is my strategy for the broad market.

Lets take a look......

Crude Oil – USO Exchange Traded Fund
Oil has been making a strong rally after breaking out of is multi month consolidation pattern. We are now looking for some type of pullback or test of breakout for another low risk entry point.


Natural Gas – UNG Exchange Traded Fund
Natural gas is having some trouble breaking out above the multi month resistance trend line. Buying here is a 50/50 bet and I will wait for another entry point before putting our money to work.


Crude Oil and Natural Gas Conclusion:
Overall, the market feels ready for quick snapback to shake traders out of profitable positions. I expect a resumption of the up trend as the market slowly creeps higher at a steady pace digesting each rally with sideways movement.

I know many people are shorting the broad market and that is not something I am willing to do yet. Until I see a drastic change, long positions are my bread and butter. Once the market does reverse, there will be plenty of time to play the short side using the Leveraged ETFs.

Commodities are taking a breather but with our support trend lines nearing I expect some movement this week.

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Dollar Bounces After Slumping Against Euro, Crude Reverses

U.S. crude futures fell on Monday, reversing direction as the dollar bounced off early lows and as Wall Street slumped after opening higher. Sources also said crude's earlier rise above $81 a barrel, which failed to take out the 2009 peak of $82 from last week, and mild U.S. weather provided pressure on heating oil.

The dollar rallied from 14 month lows versus the euro as riskier assets like commodities and U.S. equities fell. The dollar struggled earlier after an opinion piece in a Chinese newspaper said China should increase its holdings of euros and yen in its foreign reserves. U.S. stocks fell, dragged lower by materials and financial shares, erasing earlier gains.

"Crude is trying to consolidate and it's definitely sensitive to swings in the dollar," said Gene McGillian, analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut ......Read the entire article.

Crude Oil Falls Below $80 as the Dollar Rebounds Against Euro

Crude oil fell below $80 a barrel as the dollar advanced from a 14 month low against the euro, reducing the appeal of commodities, and U.S. equities declined. Energy and metal futures dropped as much as 1.4 percent after the U.S. currency rebounded. Oil also slipped as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slumped on analyst downgrades that dragged banking shares lower.

“The strengthening of the dollar is shifting the landscape under the oil market,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst with Citi Futures Perspective in New York. Crude oil for December delivery fell $1.55, or 1.9 percent, to $78.95 a barrel at 11:58 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have gained 77 percent this year. The dollar climbed 0.3 percent to $1.4957 per euro from $1.5008 on Oct. 23. It traded as low as $1.5063 earlier today, the weakest level since.....Read the entire article.

New Video: An Indicator we Can't Ignore, an Insight Into The CRB Index

In our latest video we look into an important indicator that none of us can ignore. Including our elected officials!

This is an indicator which has been around since 1957 and has accurately forecasted every inflationary and deflationary cycle since.

If you only watch one of our videos today make it this one. Weather you trade stocks, futures or commodities you have to pay close attention to world trade trends, and this is the indicator to track.

Just Click Here to watch our third video on this indicator.

Take a few minutes to watch today's short video and see how you can benefit from this indicator. As always the video is free to watch and there is no need to register.

Here is the most recent video in the series from June 9th My Favorite Indicator Of Inflation....And It's Not Gold!.

Please take a minute to leave a comment to us and our readers know what you think of the video.

Refining Stocks with Dan Dicker

Expert trader Dan Dicker says to buy stocks of refining companies when they report earnings and then sell the stocks next spring.

Weekend Update: UNG - US Natural Gas Fund ETF

Considering how UNG has been trading in the past few months, this weeks trading was "relatively" stable. This is evidenced by the width of its Bollinger Bands which are tighter than normal. Additionally, UNG is trading within its Bollinger Bands. This is a normal condition and suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold relative to the recent price action.

UNG's MACD is indicating a weak bearish signal. Although the indicator is above the critical level of 0, which implies that the underlying moving averages are bullish, the MACD has crossed below its 9day moving average or signal line. This suggests that positive momentum has begun to slow.

On Friday one of our favorite buy/sell indicators, the Parabolic Sar, showed the UNG closing above the trigger point for the Parabolic SAR and is currently registering a bullish signal. The current Significant Point, below which a reversal to the bearish side would occur, is 10.99.

The Stochastic Oscillator is registering a bearish signal as the %K is below the %D. However, UNG is neither overbought nor oversold.

The RSI is currently at 46.56%, just below the critical 50% line which indicates that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. Keep an eye on the trend of the RSI to see if the internal strength of UNG is improving or weakening.

Smart Scan Chart Analysis of UNG

Our "Smart Scan" technology shows a strong downtrend in place and that downtrend looks to continues negative longer term and for this market to remain weak. If trading this strong Downtrend make sure to use tight money management stops. The triangle Smart Scan is showing indicates the presence of a very strong trend that is being driven by strong forces and insiders.

Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, UNG scored -90 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

+10......Last Hour Close Above 5 Hour Moving Average
-15......New 3 Day Low on Thursday
-20......Last Price Below 20 Day Moving Average
-25......New 3 Week Low, Week Ending October 17th
-30......New 3 Month Low in September
-90......Total Score



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