The Gold Meltdown – What Happened?

In today’s Trade School video, we’re going to be looking into what caused the recent meltdown in gold prices. How could gold drop so precipitously in such a short time, given what’s going on in the world? Did it have anything to do with the ETF GLD or was a country forced to sell its precious metals to satisfy creditors?

We will share with you how you could have systematically made money in gold using our Trade Triangle technology, which has produced some very positive results over the years.

Since 1975, there have been 13 bear markets with an average drop around 14%. This would put gold below the $1,300 level, around $1,280.

In this short 4 minute video on gold, we will illustrate the importance of having a solid game plan and a market proven approach. We will go through each trade in gold and share with you the results of using our Trade Triangle approach from the beginning of the year.

This approach is not for everyone, but we think you will agree that the results certainly speak for themselves.

For more information on the tools we use in this video just click here to >  visit The MarketClub

Friday’s Precious Metals Melt-Down….. How to Manage It!

Friday’s Precious Metals Meltdown is an understatement. I love seeing all this fear in the market and panic selling volume jump through the roof. This is or is the “start” of the washout bottom in metals I have been talking about for a few months. Critical support levels have been broken on gold, silver and miner stocks today. This is running the stops juicing up the sell side volume.

This size of a move WILL trigger a wave of margin calls come the end of the session and it could start another strong wave of selling into the closing bell. While I like this prices for both gold and silver, I know this could be just the start of more selling. I sound like a broken record but I am not trying to catch a falling knife unless it looks like a perfect setup. I still feel we could get another 1-3 days of selling or chop down here before things go higher so I will just watch the gold and bugs get stepped on again.



The last day of the week is always the most important for long term trends and investors. Friday was wild and may have triggered a massive wave of selling which could be really good for those who know how to take advantage of it.

Chris Vermeulen


Click here to get my newsletter and take advantage of it with me!
 

Hedging your account.....Internationalizing Your Assets Webinar

Our trading partners at Casey Research are hosting a great webinar on April 30th that will give you a new insight into protecting you and your investments as we are faced with hedging our investments against the dozens of future challenges we face as investors in the U.S. markets in the years to come. Expansion of the fiat currency, inflation, forced debt reduction, rising taxes and so much more.

None of this worries you? Here are just a few of the topics we will cover in this webinar.....

1.    Increasingly desperate governments are trying to prevent citizens from transferring assets abroad

2.    Governments are increasingly desperate for money due to out-of-control spending that has created historic deficits

3.    This is especially true in the US, which is indebted to the tune of over $16.6 trillion

4.    $5.56 trillion of that debt is held by foreign investors in the form of US Treasuries, who sooner or later will want a better return on their money because current interest rates are extremely low right now

5.    They will also want a better return because the US is not demonstrating a willingness to pay off this debt, which of course raises the risk for Treasury holders

6.    The U.S. will attempt to pay down its debt through increasing the money supply and repaying Treasury holders in diluted dollars

7.    This expansion of the money supply, coupled with foreign Treasury holders' demands for a better return on their money, will exacerbate rising inflation, perhaps catastrophically

8.    This inflation will reduce the purchasing power of the dollar, which in turn reduces the value of assets denominated in dollars

9.    This means that wealth inside the U.S. and wealth denominated in dollars is doomed to depreciate in value

10.  The best way to protect your assets from this depreciation is to diversify them internationally

11.  Dollar depreciation isn’t the only reason to internationally diversify your assets
12.   The risk of asset seizure is another reason – the government can’t seize your assets if they are abroad

13.  The threat of capital controls is another reason to diversify because the government doesn’t want you to stash your money abroad – that’s why they placed severe restrictions on Americans who try to open foreign bank accounts. It’s likely they’ll make these restrictions more onerous

14.  The current U.S. administration has been playing up the concept of the rich not paying their fair share and hiding their money overseas for tax evasion purposes. Becoming more aggressive, including:

a.  Went after UBS in Switzerland to break longstanding tradition and give up the names of US account holders

b.  FACTA law in 2012 forces foreign banks to do the IRS’s bidding and reveal American account holders

c.  Current limitation of under $10,000 in cash transfers without reporting to the government

d.  Dogs in airports specifically trained to sniff US currency, just like the drug-sniffing dogs

e.  Other broke countries, like Spain, are doing the same thing

15.  Rising taxes are another reason to internationally diversify – with the government’s debts continually rising, it’s all but certain that income taxes and taxes on investments will rise in order to fund out-of-control spending

a. The Social Security Payroll Tax Cut enacted in 2010 was not extended during the fiscal cliff negotiations; as a result, an American household with a $50,000 annual income will pay $1,000 more in taxes in 2013

b. The Committee on Ways and Means says Obamacare will cost Americans $1 trillion in taxes, and that it leaves in place 21 tax increases

c.  The top marginal tax rate increased from 35% to 39.6% for taxable incomes over $450,000 (over $400,000 for single filers) as part of the fiscal cliff deal

d.  Personal exemptions for adjusted gross filers’ income (over $300,000) will be phased down ($250,000 for single filers)

e.  Increase in the rate of dividends and capital gains from 15% to 20% for taxable incomes over $450,000 ($400,000 for single filers)

f.   Death-tax increase from 35% to $40% for on estates larger than $5 million

g.  Tax increases on business investment – expiration of full expensing – the immediate deduction of capital purchases by businesses

16.  The heirs of individuals with wealth will be hit with huge estate taxes if that wealth is in the US – yet another reason to internationally diversify

17.  The government has given consideration to taking control of 401(k) plans and IRAs to make pensions more “fair.” This will take control of your retirement funds out of your hands and put it into the government’s hands… unless those funds are abroad and out of reach of greedy politicians

a.  Argentina nationalized private pension plans in 2008

b.  Ireland earmarked 4 billion euros from the country’s pension reserve fund in 2009 to rescue banks; in 2010 the remaining $2.5 billion euros was seized to support the bailout of the rest of the country. Hungary forced its citizens in 2011 to remit their individual retirement savings to the state or lost the right to a basic state pension

18.  Anyone with means is also at risk of predatory lawsuits if their means are concentrated in their home countries (this is especially true for Americans)

19.  For all of these reasons and more, you need to protect at least some of your wealth abroad

20.  Your first step toward doing that is to watch the Internationalize Your Assets webinar on April 30th

21.  It features top expert advice you’ll find on asset expatriation from: contrarian investing legend Doug Casey; CEO and Euro Pacific Capital Chief Global Strategist Peter Schiff; GoldSilver.com founder Mike Maloney; Casey Research Managing Director David Galland; and World Money Analyst Editor Kevin Brekke. Link to bios: ((link to full bios))

22.  When these experts talk about international diversification, smart investors listen, as they have been featured in numerous well known media, including the Washington Times, Newsweek, and Bloomberg

23.  During the webinar, they will reveal actionable advice on how to protect your assets from increasingly intrusive governments, including low cost options for international diversification, the best countries to do business in, and the best ways to move your savings abroad without triggering invasive reporting requirements

24.  The webinar is free – the only thing you have to do is tell us where to email the details and webinar link.

Visit the "Internationalizing Your Assets Webinar" here and get signed up today.

See you in the markets,

Ray C. Parrish

President/CEO The Crude Oil Trader

The 2 Energy Sectors You Should Invest in This Year

Adam's Video Update: Gold and Crude Oil Prices Head South

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, President of INO.com and Co-creator of MarketClub, with your mid day market update for Friday, the 12th of April.

Gold
Gold (XAUUSDO) continues to come under pressure and is going to close out the week on a negative note. It would appear as though nobody wants to hold gold anymore. The gold market is close to a key area of support around the $1,500 area. A close below that area today does not auger too well for this market. Rumors that Cyprus is selling gold to improve its bank balances is also adding downside pressure on an already depressed market. We will be checking in on gold today and analyzing just how far this market can go from here.

Watch Today's Video Update Here

Crude Oil
The crude oil market (CL.M13.E) flashed another negative Trade Triangle this morning is quickly entering a critical juncture were it needs to find support. At the moment, we are in choppy trading markets that are indicative of potential trend changes in the future. We will be jumping into the oil patch today and analyzing just what's going on with this market using our Trade Triangle technology.

The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ
The key thing in trading is not to fight the major trend, the odds favor letting the trend develop and then move with the trend. At the beginning of 2013, many analysts were thinking the fundamentals and debt load was too great for stocks to move higher. Since that time, we have seen double digit moves in the major indices.

Using our Trade Triangle technology, we were able to capture 95% of the move up and remain positive on the market. Providing that the Fed keeps pumping money into the system to the tune of $85 billion a month, will the market continue to move higher? On the other hand, markets have a tendency to over shoot both on the upside and downside. Technical analysis can help in deciphering when the market is changing course.

Bailout Nation
Once again, Cyprus is in the headlines over confusion with the state of the financial bailout and it has led to some sharp moves in European markets this Friday. The negative market action wiped out most of the positive reaction and the better-than-expected Euro-zone industrial production figures. The story on Cyprus has not yet been written and I still believe that Cyprus is the tip of the iceberg for Europe.

Watch Today's Video Update Here

Potential Chaos Ahead
North Korea - ticking down towards ...
Japan - Kuroda is the king risk
Europe - Portugal and Ireland - economic risk
The Fed - Hints QE is coming to an end
May 19th – Debt ceiling suspension expire

Have a great trading day,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub

Check out our "Trade Triangle Technology" and give it a test drive!

Dominick Chirichella: Natural Gas Prices Remain Firm

In spite of the downside miss in the weekly EIA Nat Gas inventory report the market has been in rally mode as prices have currently cleared the $4.16/mmbtu resistance area for the spot Nymex contract. Although the temperatures have been warmer the eastern half of the US has not yet seen consistent spring like temperatures which is keeping the bulls interested in pushing prices higher. In addition, the fact that total inventories are now 32.5 percent below last and 3.8 percent below the so called normal or five year average for the same week has put the market on alert that any unscheduled supply interruptions or sudden demand surges will send prices strongly higher.

The Nat Gas futures contract is entering a trading zone that has not been seen since the middle of 2011 or before the large imbalance of supply over demand started to take hold. If the spot contract can remain above the $4.16/mmbtu level it has a relatively clear area all the way to around the $4.40/mmbtu level. From a technical perspective the market is clearly in a bullish pattern as long as the spot contract remains above the new support level of around $4.16/mmbtu.

From a fundamental viewpoint the market is in the midst of a changing weather pattern as most of the country starts to experience spring like temperatures against a backdrop of the inventory cushion now solidly below normal as well as strongly below last year at this time. The fundamentals are going to have to provide support for the technical to remain in the new higher trading range.

The latest six to ten day and eight to fourteen day NOAA forecasts are providing a modest level of potential fundamental support as both forecasts are now projecting a large portion of the middle section of the US expecting below normal temperatures for the April 17th to April 25th timeframe. The forecast does not mean that there will be a significant amount of heating demand but it does mean there will be some in various parts of the country and it could result in injections coming in below both last year and the five year for the same timeframe thus widening the deficit further versus current levels.

Yesterday's EIA report was bullish versus the historical data but neutral to slightly bearish versus a comparison to the market consensus. The report showed a net withdrawal that was below the market expectations but greater than both last year and the five year average net injections for the same period. The 14 BCF withdrawal (strongly atypical for this time of the year) was below the market consensus calling for a withdrawal of around 21 BCF. The draw of 14 BCF was very near my model forecast (-15 BCF withdrawal) this week. The year over year inventory situation remains in a strong deficit position versus last year and has widened this week while the deficit versus the more normal five year average has also widened. The current inventory deficit came in at 66 BCF versus the normal five year average or about a negative 3.8 percent.

Read the entire CME Group article


Time to catch up on the Trend Jumper trades from this week
 

True or False....Do you feel like you have a "Gun to your Head"

True or False? Whether you are an experienced trader or just getting started scalping is like playing Russian Roulette. With the massive risk and suffocating pressure, it can be hazardous to your health.

It's true....if you're not careful, you could wind up losing your shirt. And the majority of traders that try to scalp end up regretting it. But done right, scalping can be deeply rewarding. The key phrase is, "done right."

Click here to watch this video from our trading partner TJ Noonan as he takes us through the breakneck mistakes and how to avoid them when scalping and includes a walk through of what he's currently doing keep the energy, action, and results while eliminating the aggressive risk.

If you've ever scalped the "old fashioned" way, it can really feel like a gun to the head. Todays scalping lesson takes the fear out of the equation but leaves all the reward. Watch the video now to find out how to scalp the right way.


True or False.....Do you feel like you have a "Gun to your Head"

Mid Week Commodities Report

May crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off last week's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 95.04 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If May renews this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 91.84 is the next downside target.

May Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.290 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 3.861 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

April gold closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1589.30 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If April renews last week's decline, the June 2011 low crossing at 1504.00 is the next downside target.

Are you afraid of the high pressure and heavy risk in scalping?

ConocoPhillips Suspends 2014 Alaska Drilling Plans

ConocoPhillips [COP] will place on hold its 2014 drilling plans for Alaska's Chukchi Sea due to the uncertainties of evolving federal regulatory requirements and operational permitting standards.

While the company is confident in its expertise and ability to safely conduct offshore Arctic operations, ConocoPhillips believes it needs more time to ensure that all regulatory stakeholders are aligned, said ConocoPhillips Alaska President Trond-Erik Johansen in a statement.

"We welcome the opportunity to work with the federal government and other leaseholders to further define and clarify the requirements for drilling offshore Alaska," Johansen commented. "Once those requirements are understood, we will reevaluate our Chukchi Sea drilling plans. We believe this is a reasonable and responsible approach given the huge investments required to operate offshore in the Arctic."

ConocoPhillips in 1998 was awarded 98 exploration lease tracts in the Chukchi Sea Outer Continental Shelf. The company is Alaska's largest oil producer and is operator of the Kuparuk and Alpine fields. ConocoPhillips' leases will expire in 2019. As of year end 2012, the company had invested $650 million net in its Chukchi Sea operations, including leases, seismic, biological studies and well planning, a ConocoPhillips spokesperson told Rigzone in an email.

Royal Dutch Shell plc in February suspended its 2014 offshore Alaska drilling plans, saying it needed more time to ensure the readiness of its equipment and employees for future drilling.

Last month, the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) concluded that Shell failed to finalize key components of its 2012 Alaska Arctic drilling program. DOI called on the industry and government to collaborate to develop an Arctic specific model for offshore Alaska oil and gas exploration.

DOI Secretary Ken Salazar said the agency would proceed with ConocoPhillips using the same regime it did with Shell. While the Obama administration is interested in pursuing Arctic resources, Salazar said they wouldn't allow shortcuts in terms of requirements, and that exploration would only be carried out with the "utmost safety."

Greenpeace International called decisions by ConocoPhillips and Norway-based Statoil ASA to shelve Arctic drilling plans on admission that the oil industry is still not capable of meeting the enormous challenges posed by operating in the world's most extreme environment.

"The time has come for governments around the world to call for a permanent halt to the reckless exploitation of the far north," said Greenpeace International Arctic campaigner Ben Wycliffe in a statement.

Posted courtesy of the staff at Rigzone


The 2 Energy Sectors You Should Invest in This Year

Are you afraid of the high pressure and heavy risk in scalping?

If you are then you and I have a lot in common, I just got tired of living my life that way. Most traders I talk to tell me they to have grown tired of the high pressure and heavy risk associated with scalping. And most times, the profit is just not worth it.

But there's a group of traders that the commodity traders are talking about on Facebook that have truly mastered the art of scalping. And they are making these trades and profits without all of the stress that goes along with scalp trading.

You may recognize these traders. These are the same traders that brought you the free Trend Jumper trading system that everyone is talking about on the social media networks..

Click here to watch this video lesson now

Please feel free to leave a comment and let us know what you think of the video.

Gold Chart of The Week

After the worst weekly decline of the year in US equities, we are slowly on the mend as we enter a week full of FED activity.

A few standouts from last week included a terrible Non Farm Payroll number on Friday and a full throttle campaign from the BOJ to continue to crush the Yen. Fridays jobs number was a big miss as 88,000 jobs were added and some real numbers regarding the drop in individuals that are actively looking for jobs was revealed. Even after these figures were announced, the stock indexes were only rattled for a short period of time before the realization that the FED will step up Quantitative Easing set back in. Since then, the stock market seems to be holding up fairly well.

The Japanese Yen had a wild week last week after the BOJ doubled down on its asset purchase program and effectively wiped out two week’s worth of recovery, and more. I think it will be interesting to see how the Yen responds to this weeks FOMC announcement that will be held on Wednesday.

The week ahead of us may be tricky as Wednesday’s Interest Rate decision looms. Traders will be less concerned about the actual rate decision, and will focus on the language used by Bernanke and other FED members throughout the week. The standout will be Bernanke’s view on the amount and the length of time the FED plans to participate in easing the market.

Keep in mind that in last month’s report, the FED maintained its focus on the labor market and we also saw a less divided FED panel on the length of Quantitative Easing. After a big miss in the Non Farm Payroll, it would be difficult to expect anything but a more aggressive campaign to keep Interest Rates row in an effort to stimulate growth.

After Wednesdays news, the markets will begin to use this information along with first quarter earnings and Fridays Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence numbers. Overall, this week should be very active for the US markets as well as commodities like Gold. The question for Gold prices is whether last week’s drop to test last Summers low is actually the low. I think after Wednesday, we should have the information necessary to make a confident decision.

The chart shows last week’s test of support, which will continue to be the focal point as Wednesdays FOMC announcement comes to pass.




Posted courtesy of Brian Booth and the staff at INO.com