Thursday, August 15, 2013

Three urgent steps to take right now as interest rates begin to explode higher

FIRST, other than for trading purposes, exit all sovereign bond holdings. There is the possibility of one more drop in interest rates, but the long term reality is that bond prices are going to fall.

SECOND, exit the most vulnerable interest sensitive stocks. See our list below of 25 STOCKS TO DUMP RIGHT NOW.

THIRD, beef up your income portfolio with these three rock solid companies my research analysts have found that thrive on rising interest rates."

Just click here to read John Mauldins, Chairman of Mauldin Economics, entire article "Three urgent steps to take right now as interest rates begin to explode higher"



What makes THIS different? In this 7 minute video, John Carter shows his REAL account and trades
 

Crude oil bulls hold their ground as the markets fall around them

September crude oil closed higher on Thursday. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above July's high crossing at 108.93 would renew this summer's rally while opening the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 110.55 later this summer. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 102.22 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 110.55. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 102.22. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27.

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The September S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends this month's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the decline off last week's high, the 38% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1647.42 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1688.79 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1688.79. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1705.00. First support is today's low crossing at 1656.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1647.42.

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September Henry natural gas closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off last week's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.448 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September renews this year's decline, psychological support crossing at 3.000 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.448. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.478. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.129. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.000.

Here's Statistical Edge Floor Traders use to Beat the Market

October gold closed sharply higher on Thursday renewing the rally off June's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October extends the aforementioned rally, June's high crossing at 1424.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 1315.40 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1369.20. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1424.00. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1315.40. Second resistance is last Wednesday's low crossing at 1272.10.

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Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Crude oil bulls maintain a "weak" technical adavantage

September Nymex crude oil closed up $0.04 at $106.87 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the overall near term technical advantage mostly due to supply disruptions in Libya and escalating violence in Egypt..

September natural gas closed up 5.7 cents at $3.342 today. Prices closed near mid range today on more short covering. Prices last week hit a 13 1/2 month low. The natural gas bears still have the solid near term technical advantage, but may now be exhausted following the recent selling pressure. Prices are in a steep three month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

"How to beat the Market Makers at their OWN GAME"

December gold futures closed up $12.00 an ounce at $1,332.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and saw more short covering and bargain hunting. Gold bears still have the overall near term technical advantage.

The September U.S. dollar index closed down .060 at 81.775 today. Prices closed near mid range in quieter trading today. The bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. Prices are in a five week old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

Can't forget our favorite trade for 2013.....October sugar closed down 3 points at 17.22 cents today. Prices closed near mid range today and saw mild profit taking from recent gains as prices Tuesday hit a six week high. The sugar bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. However, prices are in a three week old uptrend on the daily bar chart.

John Carter releases DVD version of "Spread Trading Strategies for any size Account"....Click Here to get your copy!


Tuesday, August 13, 2013

John Carter's "Dirty Secrets of Weekly Options".... New Video

2013 will be remembered as the year the retail investor was introduced to the world of trading options. And our readers have been lucky enough to follow our trading partner John Carter of Simpler Options as he teaches us how to successfully trade options using his "unique weekly model".

A couple of times a year John is willing to produce a new video and bring us his latest take on trading options including showing us his recent trades from his personal account. What do you need to do to understand this system?

Just click here to watch his new video!

Here's what you'll be learning......

    *   How he has made $650,000 this year beating the market makers at their own game

    *   The Dirty Little Secret of Weekly Options

   *   Why weekly options are his favorite way to trade options

    *   The account size you need to trade weekly options....[Here's a hint...any size]

    *   Your goal as an options trader

    *   And so much more...


Watch the video and please feel free to leave a comment and tell us what you think about the video and what you think about using his weekly options trading model.

Ray @ The Crude Oil Trader


Watch "What Wall Street Doesn't Want You to Know about Trading Options"


Monday, August 12, 2013

The SP500 Enters Major Correction Period

Our trading partner David A. Banister of Market Trends Forecast releases his call that the SP 500 is close to confirming new correction. Says 1685 support is the key. Here's the details based on his Elliot Wave research.

The SP 500 has been on a tear since late 2012 with the SP 500 bottoming at 1266. The rally though we have been charting out as part of a “Primary wave 3″ uptrend for this Bull market cycle from March 2009, and we are likely entering a Major correction or what we would label “Major wave 4″. Since the 1266 lows, we have had Major Wave 1, 2, and now 3 completed at 1710. We are entering Major wave 4 which should correct 23-38% of the entirety of Major wave 3, which was 444 points.

This correction will be confirmed with any close below 1674 and nails in the coffin begin with any close below 1685 on the SP 500 index. Primary wave 1 of this super bull cycle ended at 1370, a 704 point rally. Primary wave 3 will likely be larger than Primary wave 1 and I am projecting a top between 1900-2000 on the SP 500 before it’s completed. The current correction is Major wave 4 of Primary wave 3, which has 5 Major waves required. With that said, our projections are for 1605 on the shallow side and 1540 on the deeper side for Major wave 4 of Primary wave 3.

Now it is possible that we may extend a bit higher yet in Major wave 3 to 1736-1772, but only if we hold the 1685 support lines which the market is basing around currently. In any event, at our Trading service we have been aggressively taking profits in the past two weeks on multiple positions while still holding a few open at this time.

Below is a chart showing our projected correction pivots of 1605 and 1540, subscribers will be updated on a regular basis. Just click here to join Banister with a 33% discount on his trading service and also receive Precious Metals (GOLD) forecasts on a regular basis every week.

812 SP 500


John Carter releases DVD version of "Spread Trading Strategies for any size Account"....Click Here to get your copy!


Federal Railroad Administration tightens crude oil regulations

In an effort to improve safety, the Federal Railroad Administration discussed plans to begin asking shipping companies to provide its supply data for crude oil shipments, according to The Wall Street Journal. The FRA believes that some crude oil shipments are transported in unsafe tanker cars.

By using the supply data, the FRA will investigate whether certain oil companies are shipping crude oil with chemicals that would make the transport more hazardous than their current classification.

Some tanker cars have been reported to show "severe corrosion," possibly as a result of the dangerous chemicals included in the mixture.

If shipping companies are unable to provide their supply data, the FRA will work with the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration to independently test specific cars.

The aggressive approach by the FRA comes after a runaway train derailed and exploded in the Quebec town of Lac-Mégantic. The train was carrying 72 crude oil tanker cars. Forty seven people were killed in the blast.

"They seem to be saying, 'Get your house in order or we'll do it for you,'" said Grady Cothen, a former FRA safety official.

More information about integrity management issues in the United States can be found at PennEnergy's research area.

Posted courtesy of our friends at PennEnergy


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Saturday, August 10, 2013

You pushed oil higher on Friday....was it China Demand or Middle East Disruption?

September crude oil closed higher ending a five day correction off last Friday's high. Yet shares of some top oil companies were down at the close of trading on Friday. BP fell $.01 to $41.27, Chevron fell $.57 or .5 percent, to $122.50, ConocoPhillips fell $.26 or .4 percent, to $66.83, Exxon Mobil Corp. fell $.43 or .5 percent, to $90.72, Marathon Oil Corp. fell $.12 or .3 percent, to $34.55. The high range close in Sept. oil sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes in oil below last Tuesday's low crossing at 102.67 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. Closes above July's high crossing at 108.93 would renew this summer's rally while opening the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 110.55 later this summer. First resistance is July's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 110.55. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 102.67. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27.

The September S&P 500 closed lower on Friday. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1687.33 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the index trading into uncharted territory. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1705.00. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1687.33. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1670.50.

October gold closed higher on Friday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Today's close above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1307.90 confirms that a short term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 1208.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1339.40. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1348.00. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1272.10. Second support is July's low crossing at 1208.50.

September Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday leaving Thursday's key reversal up unconfirmed. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends this year's decline, psychological support crossing at 3.000 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.520 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.349. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.520. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 3.129. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.000.

Last but not least, our favorite trade for 2013.....September coffee closed higher on Friday and the high range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Today's close above the 20 day moving average crossing at 122.22 confirms that a short term low has been posted. If September extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 126.50 is the next upside target.

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Friday, August 9, 2013

A Monetary Master Explains Inflation

By Terry Coxon, Senior Economist

One of the best things about being a partner in a research firm employing about 40 analysts is that I have unfettered access to really smart people. While we have a great team with expertise across the spectrum, when it comes to monetary matters, my go to guy is Terry Coxon, a senior editor for our flagship publication, The Casey Report.


Terry cut his teeth working side by side for years with the late Harry Browne, the economist and prolific author of a number of groundbreaking books, including the 1970 classic, How You Can Profit from the Coming Devaluation. The timing of Harry's book should catch your eye, because his analysis that the dollar was headed for a big fall was spot on. Anyone paying attention made a lot of money.

As coeditors of Harry Browne's Special Reports, Terry and Harry made a formidable team for over 23 years. During this period, the two deeply researched the operating levers of the global economy, with a focus on the nature of money and impact of monetary policy. They also looked for ways to apply what they learned about macroeconomics into practical investment strategies, coauthoring Inflation-Proofing Your Investments. On his own, Terry wrote Keep What You Earn and Using Warrants.

Putting his expertise into action, Terry founded, and for 22 years served as the president of, the Permanent Portfolio Fund, one of the top performing funds in history.

Having Terry on the Casey Research team as a senior economist has been a huge personal boon. By the time you finish reading my brief interview with him, I suspect you'll understand why.......David Galland

David: Let's start by defining terms. What exactly is inflation? Most people view inflation as a noticeable increase in the prices of everyday things. How do you define inflation?

Terry: The original use of the term in financial matters referred to money, not to prices. It meant an increase in the total amount of money held by the public. Such a monetary inflation can be engineered by government printing or, under a gold standard, by increasing the official price of gold, as in 1933.

Monetary inflation can also be engineered by inventing a new category of legal tender, as in the case of the silver dollars minted in the 19th century. And inflation of the money supply can happen without government tinkering, such as through the discovery and development of new gold deposits (as in the cases of the California and Klondike gold rushes), or through decisions by commercial banks to operate with thinner cash reserves in order to issue more deposits.

Today "inflation" usually refers to price inflation, which is a rise in the general level of consumer prices. That second use grew out of the public's experience of episodes of monetary inflation being followed by periods of rising prices.

Notice that with either use of the word, there is a little mushiness. During some periods, depending on what you include as "money," you may find either an increase or a decrease in the supply of the stuff. Suppose that the supply of hand-to-hand currency goes up while the quantity of bank deposits goes down by a larger amount. Is that monetary inflation or monetary deflation? And what exactly does an increase in the "general level of consumer prices" mean? There's more than one way to define an index of prices, and there are many ways to tinker with it.

David: In your view, have the US government and the Fed been following an inflationary policy?

Terry: Yes. Since the Lehman swoon in 2008, the M1 money supply (hand to hand currency plus checkable bank deposits) has increased by 72%, so the policy is clearly one of monetary inflation. And the Fed is avowedly committed to avoiding price deflation at all costs. They'll do whatever it takes to prevent price deflation, up to and including sacrificing virgins. That deflation phobia is necessarily a commitment to price inflation, and Mr. Bernanke has indicated that consumer prices rising at a rate of 2% per year would be ideal. So either way you define inflation, the Fed is all for it.

David: Based upon your studies, just how extreme or extraordinary has inflation been since the beginning of this financial crisis?

Terry: A 72% growth in the money supply over a period of five-plus years is a gigantic increase. Take a look at the chart. It shows the annual growth rate in M1 over all five year periods from 1959 to the present (dates on the chart indicate the end of a five-year period). As you can see, the only episode of monetary inflation that comes close to what is happening now is the money printing spree of the high price inflation 1970s and early 1980s.


David: How certain are you that the monetary inflation here in the US is going to ultimately manifest as price inflation?

Terry: You're asking for a lot when you say "certain", certainly more than you're going to get from me. But here's why price inflation seems inevitable. The Federal Reserve can easily create more money. There's no limit to that power, as they've already demonstrated. At any hint of deflation, they will produce more cash. They can never know how much new cash would be enough, but because they see deflation as a vastly more serious problem than price inflation, they always will err on the side of too much new money. That attitude is a guarantee of price inflation.

David: When price inflation begins, how significant do you think it will be? A little inflation? A lot? Hyperinflation?

Terry: Mr. Bernanke will get to visit his ideal world of 2% price inflation, but it will only be a whistle stop. The price inflation that lies ahead will be at least as bad as what happened in the 1970s episode, when the annual inflation rate approached 15%. The money that's already been printed so far may be enough to produce such a 1970s size problem. And more new dollars are coming, because the Fed won't stop printing until price inflation becomes obvious.

Making matters worse is that the devices for paring down the amount of cash that you need for the sake of convenience, such as credit cards, ATMs, and online banks, are now far more widely available and cheaper to use than they were in the 1970s. When price inflation becomes noticeable, people will turn more and more to those devices to reduce their holdings of value leaking cash. That drop in the demand for money will reinforce the price inflation that originated in the Federal Reserve's increase in the supply of money.

David: I know it can only be a wild guess, but based on your observations, how long do you think it will take for price inflation to become obvious?

Terry: Within twelve months after you hear that the economy has at last fully recovered from the recession.

David: What is the biggest flaw with the deflation argument?

Terry: Whatever process someone might have in mind as a driver of price deflation, no matter how powerful that process might be, the Federal Reserve has the power and the will to carpet bomb it with more new money. What the deflationists overlook is that if deflation ever seems to be winning, the Fed will simply extend the game for as many innings as it takes for inflation to win. In a fiat-money system, inflation always gets another chance.

David: What would make you change your view that price inflation is inevitable?

Terry: Brain surgery.

A time tested way of protecting wealth is to move it out of one's native currency and into a location that's more economically sound. But is that even possible for US citizens these days? If so, what are the best places to explore for moving wealth offshore, and how is that best accomplished? Should you and your family follow your money and expatriate your home country?

All these questions, and many more, are answered in a new, free report by legendary speculator Doug Casey. Titled Getting Out of Dodge, it offers specific, actionable advice for moving your wealth and your life safely offshore. Get started while you still can: governments around the world are beginning to tighten their nooses.


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Thursday, August 8, 2013

Crude Oil Bulls Continue to Fade Despite Positive News out of China

The U.S. stock indexes closed firmer today. The stock index bulls still have the solid overall near term technical advantage as prices hover not far below the recent for the move highs. Chinese economic data released overnight was bullish for most of the market place and especially for the raw commodity sector. China exports were up a much higher than expected 5.1% year on year in July, compared to a 3.1% drop in June.

Chinese imports rose by a much higher than expected 11%, year on year. The European Central Bank released a forecast Thursday that shows it expects Euro zone economic growth to contract by 0.6% in 2013, citing weak consumer demand worldwide. The ECB forecast Euro zone growth in 2014 at up 0.9%. The ECB report comes out at a time when recent Euro zone economic data has shown generally slight improvement.

September Nymex crude oil closed down $0.87 at $103.49 today. Prices closed near mid range today on more profit taking and weak long liquidation. Bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage but are fading. If prices back off on Friday then a bearish double top reversal pattern would be confirmed on the daily chart.

September natural gas closed up 6.9 cents at $3.315 today. Prices closed near the session high on short covering after hitting a fresh 13 1/2 month low early on today. The nat gas bears have the solid near term technical advantage, but may now be exhausted following the recent selling pressure. Prices are in a steep three month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

December gold futures closed up $24.70 an ounce at $1,310.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and saw heavy short covering and some fresh bargain hunting. A lower U.S. dollar index also boosted the gold market again today. Gold bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. However, a bullish weekly high close on Friday would give the bulls some fresh upside near term technical momentum.

September silver futures closed up $0.682 an ounce at $20.19 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a two week high close. Bears still have the near term technical advantage. A weaker U.S. dollar index today boosted the silver bulls.

September coffee closed up 65 points at 121.70 cents today. Prices closed near mid range today and saw more short covering in a bear market. The coffee bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage.

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