Will 1,650 Offer Buying Support for the SP500?

Earlier this week we shared with our readers a great article from our trading partner J.W. Jones where he covered in detail the loomimg correction in the equity markets. Now what? Here's a follow up article that includes the trades J.W. closed this week.......

In my most recent article, I discussed how I was expecting U.S. financial markets to reverse to the downside in the near future. I illustrated the various divergences in a variety of underlying technical indicators which have issued warnings in the past.

Unlike many financial journalists or newsletter operators, I am an option trader first and a writer second. My primary focus is typically to sell option spreads that focus on the passage of time for profitability and/or take advantage of large implied volatility spikes which help to improve my probability of success on each trade taken. Unfortunately in 2013 Mr. Market has not accommodated my style of trading as we have had very low volatility most of the year.

Low volatility levels many times force option traders to take more directional trades which ultimately leads to lower probabilities of success. I still take advantage of stocks that have had implied volatility spikes, but ultimately this market has forced theta sellers to get more aggressive, take more risk, and accept less potential profitability.

I have recently closed several winning positions with members of Options Trading Signals service during the August expiration. Several positions were actually closed Thursday August 15th for gains.

However, what might surprise readers is that several positions that I closed for gains this week and even today were long biased positions. In fact, one of my largest winning trades for the August monthly option expiration cycle was the EWZ Call Debit Spread that was essentially long Brazilian equities.

Here are the detailed results of J.W.'s recent trades


New video....John Carters weekly options method to beat the market makers at their own game!

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They say that those who can't DO...teach. Does THIS prove that phrase wrong? 

In this 7 minute video, John Carter of Simpler Options shows his REAL account balance, his winning AND losing trades that has racked up amazing profits. How did he grow his account? Simple.

Using the methods he teaches in this 7 minute video. See his account and learn his methods. Please feel free to leave a comment and tell us if you can see yourself using these methods to trade commodities, equities or even currencies.

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Three urgent steps to take right now as interest rates begin to explode higher

FIRST, other than for trading purposes, exit all sovereign bond holdings. There is the possibility of one more drop in interest rates, but the long term reality is that bond prices are going to fall.

SECOND, exit the most vulnerable interest sensitive stocks. See our list below of 25 STOCKS TO DUMP RIGHT NOW.

THIRD, beef up your income portfolio with these three rock solid companies my research analysts have found that thrive on rising interest rates."

Just click here to read John Mauldins, Chairman of Mauldin Economics, entire article "Three urgent steps to take right now as interest rates begin to explode higher"



What makes THIS different? In this 7 minute video, John Carter shows his REAL account and trades
 

Crude oil bulls hold their ground as the markets fall around them

September crude oil closed higher on Thursday. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above July's high crossing at 108.93 would renew this summer's rally while opening the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 110.55 later this summer. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 102.22 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 110.55. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 102.22. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27.

John Carter's new video "Dirty Secrets of Weekly Options"

The September S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends this month's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the decline off last week's high, the 38% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1647.42 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1688.79 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1688.79. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1705.00. First support is today's low crossing at 1656.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1647.42.

Get our Advanced Crude Oil Study – 15 Minute Range

September Henry natural gas closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off last week's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.448 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September renews this year's decline, psychological support crossing at 3.000 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.448. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.478. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.129. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.000.

Here's Statistical Edge Floor Traders use to Beat the Market

October gold closed sharply higher on Thursday renewing the rally off June's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October extends the aforementioned rally, June's high crossing at 1424.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 1315.40 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1369.20. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1424.00. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1315.40. Second resistance is last Wednesday's low crossing at 1272.10.

John Carter releases DVD version of "Spread Trading Strategies for any size Account"....Click Here to get your copy!

Crude oil bulls maintain a "weak" technical adavantage

September Nymex crude oil closed up $0.04 at $106.87 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the overall near term technical advantage mostly due to supply disruptions in Libya and escalating violence in Egypt..

September natural gas closed up 5.7 cents at $3.342 today. Prices closed near mid range today on more short covering. Prices last week hit a 13 1/2 month low. The natural gas bears still have the solid near term technical advantage, but may now be exhausted following the recent selling pressure. Prices are in a steep three month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

"How to beat the Market Makers at their OWN GAME"

December gold futures closed up $12.00 an ounce at $1,332.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and saw more short covering and bargain hunting. Gold bears still have the overall near term technical advantage.

The September U.S. dollar index closed down .060 at 81.775 today. Prices closed near mid range in quieter trading today. The bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. Prices are in a five week old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

Can't forget our favorite trade for 2013.....October sugar closed down 3 points at 17.22 cents today. Prices closed near mid range today and saw mild profit taking from recent gains as prices Tuesday hit a six week high. The sugar bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. However, prices are in a three week old uptrend on the daily bar chart.

John Carter releases DVD version of "Spread Trading Strategies for any size Account"....Click Here to get your copy!

John Carter's "Dirty Secrets of Weekly Options".... New Video

2013 will be remembered as the year the retail investor was introduced to the world of trading options. And our readers have been lucky enough to follow our trading partner John Carter of Simpler Options as he teaches us how to successfully trade options using his "unique weekly model".

A couple of times a year John is willing to produce a new video and bring us his latest take on trading options including showing us his recent trades from his personal account. What do you need to do to understand this system?

Just click here to watch his new video!

Here's what you'll be learning......

    *   How he has made $650,000 this year beating the market makers at their own game

    *   The Dirty Little Secret of Weekly Options

   *   Why weekly options are his favorite way to trade options

    *   The account size you need to trade weekly options....[Here's a hint...any size]

    *   Your goal as an options trader

    *   And so much more...

Watch the video and please feel free to leave a comment and tell us what you think about the video and what you think about using his weekly options trading model.

Ray @ The Crude Oil Trader


Watch "What Wall Street Doesn't Want You to Know about Trading Options"

The SP500 Enters Major Correction Period

Our trading partner David A. Banister of Market Trends Forecast releases his call that the SP 500 is close to confirming new correction. Says 1685 support is the key. Here's the details based on his Elliot Wave research.

The SP 500 has been on a tear since late 2012 with the SP 500 bottoming at 1266. The rally though we have been charting out as part of a “Primary wave 3″ uptrend for this Bull market cycle from March 2009, and we are likely entering a Major correction or what we would label “Major wave 4″. Since the 1266 lows, we have had Major Wave 1, 2, and now 3 completed at 1710. We are entering Major wave 4 which should correct 23-38% of the entirety of Major wave 3, which was 444 points.

This correction will be confirmed with any close below 1674 and nails in the coffin begin with any close below 1685 on the SP 500 index. Primary wave 1 of this super bull cycle ended at 1370, a 704 point rally. Primary wave 3 will likely be larger than Primary wave 1 and I am projecting a top between 1900-2000 on the SP 500 before it’s completed. The current correction is Major wave 4 of Primary wave 3, which has 5 Major waves required. With that said, our projections are for 1605 on the shallow side and 1540 on the deeper side for Major wave 4 of Primary wave 3.

Now it is possible that we may extend a bit higher yet in Major wave 3 to 1736-1772, but only if we hold the 1685 support lines which the market is basing around currently. In any event, at our Trading service we have been aggressively taking profits in the past two weeks on multiple positions while still holding a few open at this time.

Below is a chart showing our projected correction pivots of 1605 and 1540, subscribers will be updated on a regular basis. Just click here to join Banister with a 33% discount on his trading service and also receive Precious Metals (GOLD) forecasts on a regular basis every week.




John Carter releases DVD version of "Spread Trading Strategies for any size Account"....Click Here to get your copy!

Federal Railroad Administration tightens crude oil regulations

In an effort to improve safety, the Federal Railroad Administration discussed plans to begin asking shipping companies to provide its supply data for crude oil shipments, according to The Wall Street Journal. The FRA believes that some crude oil shipments are transported in unsafe tanker cars.

By using the supply data, the FRA will investigate whether certain oil companies are shipping crude oil with chemicals that would make the transport more hazardous than their current classification.

Some tanker cars have been reported to show "severe corrosion," possibly as a result of the dangerous chemicals included in the mixture.

If shipping companies are unable to provide their supply data, the FRA will work with the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration to independently test specific cars.

The aggressive approach by the FRA comes after a runaway train derailed and exploded in the Quebec town of Lac-Mégantic. The train was carrying 72 crude oil tanker cars. Forty seven people were killed in the blast.

"They seem to be saying, 'Get your house in order or we'll do it for you,'" said Grady Cothen, a former FRA safety official.

More information about integrity management issues in the United States can be found at PennEnergy's research area.

Posted courtesy of our friends at PennEnergy


John Carter releases DVD version of "Spread Trading Strategies for any size Account"....Click Here to get your copy!

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You pushed oil higher on Friday....was it China Demand or Middle East Disruption?

September crude oil closed higher ending a five day correction off last Friday's high. Yet shares of some top oil companies were down at the close of trading on Friday. BP fell $.01 to $41.27, Chevron fell $.57 or .5 percent, to $122.50, ConocoPhillips fell $.26 or .4 percent, to $66.83, Exxon Mobil Corp. fell $.43 or .5 percent, to $90.72, Marathon Oil Corp. fell $.12 or .3 percent, to $34.55. The high range close in Sept. oil sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes in oil below last Tuesday's low crossing at 102.67 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. Closes above July's high crossing at 108.93 would renew this summer's rally while opening the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 110.55 later this summer. First resistance is July's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 110.55. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 102.67. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27.

The September S&P 500 closed lower on Friday. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1687.33 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the index trading into uncharted territory. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1705.00. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1687.33. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1670.50.

October gold closed higher on Friday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Today's close above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1307.90 confirms that a short term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 1208.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1339.40. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1348.00. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1272.10. Second support is July's low crossing at 1208.50.

September Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday leaving Thursday's key reversal up unconfirmed. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends this year's decline, psychological support crossing at 3.000 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.520 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.349. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.520. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 3.129. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.000.

Last but not least, our favorite trade for 2013.....September coffee closed higher on Friday and the high range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Today's close above the 20 day moving average crossing at 122.22 confirms that a short term low has been posted. If September extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 126.50 is the next upside target.

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