Is Gold and the Miners About to Explode Upward?

After many weeks of pricing pressure as the U.S. Dollar extended a rally delivering nearly unending devaluation pricing in most commodities, Gold is setting up for a big upside rally and is likely to extend beyond $1240 in this initial run higher. We believe the immediate bottom has formed in Gold and we believe the upside move will consist of two unique legs higher. The first leg is likely to run to near $1240 - 1250 and end near the middle of November 2018. The second leg of this move will likely run to near $1310 and end near May 2019.

This move is the precious metals and miners will likely coincide with some moderate U.S. Dollar weakness as well as extended global market concerns related to the trade war with China, economic factors originating from China and the EU as well as concerns stemming from the existing emerging market issues. The bottom line is that all of these global concerns are setting up a nearly perfect storm for Gold, Silver and the mining sector to see some extended rallies over the next 6+ month – possibly longer.

Get our Free Newsletter Right Here

This Weekly Gold chart shows our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system and we’ve highlighted key price points that are currently being predicted as targets. The CYAN colored line on this chart (near $1245) shows a number of key Fibonacci projected price levels align near this level. These coordinated price targets usually result in key price levels that price will target. So, $1240 - 1250 is setting up as our first upside target.

The second key level is the MAGENTA level near $1300. This lone target well above the other aligns with historical support going back to October/November 2017.

Ultimately, our Fibonacci price modeling system is showing projected price targets as high as $1435 and $1570 – see the YELLOW ARROWS on the chart below. These levels are valid targets given the current price rotation and the potential for these levels to be reached, eventually, should not be discounted. Our Fibonacci price modeling systems are adaptive and learns from price activity as it operates. It identifies these levels based on price activity, relational modeling and active learning of Fibonacci price structure and price theory. We believe these levels will become strong upside targets over the next 12+ months which indicates we have a potential for a massive 18% to 30% upside potential in Gold.

Please take a moment to read some of our other research posts at The Technical Traders to learn how we keep our members keenly aware of these market moves before they happen and help our members find profits with strategic trading signals. Our most recent trade has already gained over 8% in less than 2 days.

Our team of researchers are dedicated to helping you find and execute greater success and our advanced proprietary price modeling solutions are some of the best in the industry. Isn’t it time you decided to invest in your future by finding a solid team of professionals to help you create greater success?

See How Our Predictive Model Suggest a Massive Market Rotation During the U.S. Elections

Just in time for what appears to be a potentially massive market price rotation, our researchers have put together this post to highlight what we believe will become a surprise price correction in the US Equities markets. Our team of researchers believes the correlation of our predictive modeling tools, predictive cycle tools, and other indicators are set up for what may become a massive 5 - 8% price rotation over the next 60 days.

We were expecting this rotation to start unfolding around mid-September (now) but at this time the technical are still bullish so we are not betting against the market just yet.

The combination of new US tariffs ($200 Billion about to hit in the China trade war), as well as a combination of technical issues with regards to Technology Stocks and retail expectations, could jolt the market if a correction does take place as our predictive modeling tools suggest. A simple rotation of 2 - 3% is fairly common in the markets. These predictive modeling solutions are suggesting we are just 4 - 5 days away from the start of a much bigger correction in the US Equities and Indexes.

We believe the coming US elections in combination with the other aspects of the global economy are going to drive a downward price correction that many people are not expecting right now. But there is one pocket of stocks that could benefit from this tariff stuff which members or our Wealth Building Newsletter just got long today!

Anyway, Let’s take a look at some of our index charts to see how this will likely play out.

This first chart is a Daily ES chart showing our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive price modeling tool. The YELLOW/CYAN dashed lines over the price bars and into the future show the highest probable outcome from the ADL predictive modeling analysis. This instance that predicts a 5 - 6 day price advance before a price peak sets up consisted of 105 unique instances of correlative price data making up this predictive analysis. In other words, 105 unique instances of similar predictive price patterns and predicts future price moves based on the highest likely outcome of all instances of data.

In this case, the ADL modeling system is suggesting we have about 4 - 6 more days of moderately higher price activity before a price top/peak will setup – prompting a new downward price trend.

This ES Weekly ADL price chart correlates with the Daily chart almost perfectly. The Weekly chart predicts one additional week of upward price action before a massive 5 - 6% price decline drives prices lower. This massive price rotation executes over a 1 to 2 week span before briefly stalling, then an additional price decline of about 2% sets up driving prices to a predicted low near $2670 (-8.58%) on November 1, 2018 (just before the US elections).

This ADL analysis was generated by 112 unique instances of similar price data and the combined highest probability outcome is shown by the YELLOW and CYAN dashed lines on the chart. Simply put, we have a very high probability of a 5 - 8% price correction setting up over the next 20+ days in the U.S. Equities markets with a projected bottom setting up near $2670.

This last Weekly Transportation Index chart displaying the ADL predictive modeling system paints a very interesting picture when you combine it with the two earlier charts. The Transportation index typically leads the major markets by about 3 to 6 months. We have seen continued upside price advances in the Transportation Index over the past 6 months which leads us to think the US equities markets will continue to push higher overall.

Yet, this Weekly ADL predictive modeling chart shows two massive price rotations are likely to unfold before the end of 2018. The first one is set up for a downside price rotation, ending near $10,800, starting the week of September 17, 2018, and lasting about 3 - 4 weeks. Then, the ADL predicts the Transportation Index will rocket higher, near $11,800, for about 5 - 6 weeks before falling again to retest the $10,800 lows near early December 2018.

We believe critical global news and expectations regarding global trade, banking and credit may become the catalysts for these moves. The US is expected to enact over $200 billion in trade tariffs this week with China. We believe the ADL predictive modeling system is capable of identifying these massive price rotations and predicting the future rotations simply because of the massive amounts of data that it is capable of crunching. This Weekly ADL prediction consisted of 112 unique price instances and displays only the highest probable outcome. In other words, our predictive modeling system is suggesting these price moves are likely to happen based on its analysis with a greater than 50% probability.

Please pay close attention to our research posts and other articles throughout the end of this year and early into 2019. As we have been attempting to warn our followers, expect increased volatility and wider price rotation throughout the end of this year.

We expect to find a number of incredible opportunities for our members over the next few months and we have already been incredibly successful throughout this recent price rally. Our ADL systems predicted this upside price move in February of 2018 and we have stuck with it. Now, the ADL is predicting a massive rotation is about to take place – somewhat similar to February 2018. If you want to learn how to profit from these moves, visit The Technical Traders to learn how we help our members stay ahead of these types of market moves.

Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders Ltd.

How Bitcoin Will Make You Big Money Again

If you are a Bitcoin fan or looking for the next opportunity for a Bitcoin rally, you may not have long to wait before a price breakout takes place. Our research team at The Technical Traders believes a price breakout may occur before the end of 2018 – the only question is will it be a breakout rally or a breakdown crash before the next mega rally?

Cryptos and, in particular, Bitcoin has increased in popularity and adoption over the past 24 months across the globe. Recently, Citigroup has announced new technology making Crypto transactions more secure and reducing the risk of such transactions. Additionally, Circle recently announced a US Dollar based Crypto currency that is backed by Goldman-Sachs. News from Europe is that the EU has been urged to adopt common Crypto Currency rules that will fuel more attention and enterprise on developing suitable Crypto solutions for the European markets.

All of this plays into our research that a breakout/breakdown is inevitable and it is just a matter of time before this coiling price consolidation “apexes” and expands.

This chart shows massive breakdown washout below $6000 taking it back to prices before crypto became popular in early 2017.

This next chart below shows our cycle analysis and how much bitcoin moved from our cycle bottoms to tops. We are now at NEARING a critical juncture of a $6000 breakdown which is clearly a support level, and a potential major cycle bottom or continuation down cycle. Huge money can be made from this extreme volatility that is about to unfold and savvy technical traders can see the profit potential unfolding.

We urge all traders to keep Cryptos in focus over the next few weeks and months. Our research team shares our proprietary analysis and research with our paid members regarding the Crypto currency trends and trades.

If you want to learn what we believe will be the next big move in the Crypto markets, then visit The Technical Traders to learn more. Our proprietary modeling systems are clearly showing us what we should expect over the next few weeks and months. As a member, you will have access to this research and benefit from our Daily Research Videos.

Chris Vermeulen

Crude Oil Likely to Find Support in this Uptrend

I have focused my attention on the recent price rotation in the Crude Oil market. I believe the recent downside rotation in price, while technically still in a bullish trend, is an excellent opportunity for traders to identify entry positions for a potential price rally to levels near of above $70 - 71 ppb.

My proprietary price modeling systems and price cycle systems are clearly illustrating that Oil prices should find support, bottom and rotate higher within the next 5 - 7+ days. I rely on these proprietary indicators and modeling systems to help understand when opportunities exist in the markets.

When I can determine that price is moving counter to a primary trend and creating what I call a “price anomaly”, where enhanced opportunity exists for a profitable outcome, I attempt to determine if this trigger warrants alerting our followers. In this case, I believe the opportunity for upside price action following this price rotation is exceptional.

This first chart shows our proprietary price cycle modeling system at work and clearly shows the key Fibonacci support levels that I believe will act as a floor for the price of oil. I believe a bottom will form near $67 ppb and a new price rally will result in prices moving quickly back above $70 ppb.

This second chart shows the XLE price cycles on a Daily basis and I want to highlight the potential for a price move from near $73 to well above $76 (or higher) if our analysis is correct. This reflects a +4~8% price move that I believe could happen within the next 5~10+ days.

The research here shows a long entry trade over the next 2 - 3 trading days is ideal and that this move will likely end before September 21 (if the market does not change its current cycle patterns). Overall, this could be an opportunity for skilled traders and investors.

Often, followers and subscribers find my research of finding and alerting them to these types of opportunities. Most of the time, these types of triggers are ones that members would have missed or ignored. These proprietary price modeling tools provide us with a strong advantage over other traders. If you want to learn what it is like to have forward looking prediction systems backing you up every day with Daily video analysis, detailed global market research, clear trading triggers/signals and more, then join me at The Technical Traders to learn how I can help you.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

Is Gold on the Verge of a Bottom - See for Yourself

The recent downward price swing in Gold has kept Goldbugs frothing at what they believe is a very unusual and unexplained price function in the face of so much uncertainty throughout the globe. With Turkey, Russia, China and many others experiencing massive economic and currency crisis events, Gold has actually been creeping lower as the U.S. Dollar strengthens. It is almost like a “Twilight Zone” episode for Gold Bulls.

The setup for a gold rally has been in place for over a decade. Much like in 2006 through 2008, the current price and volatility of Gold is simply mundane. For the past two years, Gold has rotated between $1190 and $1360 – within a $180 range. Certainly, Gold traders were able to find some profits within this range, but no breakout trends have been established since early 2016 when the price of Gold changed from Bearish to Bullish and a 31% rally took place driving prices $328.80 higher from the lows.

Our team of researchers, at The Technical Traders, believe something very interesting may be taking place in Gold right now – almost like a “Deja Vu” of the past. A double setup appears to have taken place recently and we believe the bottom may have already formed in Gold for now.

In early 2016 through November 2016 where price rallied 31% then retraced nearly 75% to form the second leg higher. This deep retracement of price was indicative of a wide price rotation before another leg higher pushed back up to near the all time highs.

From 2017 until now the Gold chart shows another 75% price retracement from recent highs once again. This second 75% retracement could be a massive bottom formation setting up in Gold and could be a huge “wash out” low price. We believe this unique retracement is indicative of a massive price breakout over the next year or so as the price of gold is forming what Stan Weinstein calls a Stage 1 Accumulation.

Now, let’s zoom in and take a look at the weekly chart and our Adaptive Dynamic Learning model, the predictive analysis suggests that Gold prices should begin to bottom within the next week or two and begin to climb much higher over the next 3 to 10+ weeks.

This pattern consists of 12 unique instances of data and suggests that the future upswing will start rather mild for the first 2 weeks, then begin to accelerate as time progresses. It appears we have a strong potential to see prices above $1400 within the next 5 - 8 weeks or so and you look at the previous chart above, what is the $1400 level? You got it! Resistance, and if price breaks out above $1400 a new bull market would be triggered!

As many of you are aware, Gold is often a move to safety when the global economy begins to show signs of chaos or weakness. We believe the move in the U.S. Dollar will stall and possibly correct as this move takes place. If Gold were to rally while the U.S. Dollar continued to strengthen, you can clearly assume that a flight to safety is taking place and it includes a massive capital migration toward U.S. equities and GOLD. If the rally in gold is seen while the U.S. Dollar weakens or stalls, then we are seeing a move to safety while the currency markets address regional and global currency market issues.

Either way, we expect Gold to begin a new rally higher off of this 75% retracement level to complete the Pennant formation that is currently set up for a Wave 5 upside price expansion. Some of this technical analysis may be over your head as it can be confusing, but you should get the gist of things which is that precious metals should find a bottom and there is the potential that a massive bull market could be on the horizon if price rallies quickly. Be prepared for this move because the Gold shorts will likely be forced to cover their positions within the next few weeks as this move begins to accelerate higher.

Visit The Technical Traders to learn how we can help you find these types of swings in the major markets. We alert our clients well in advance of these swings and deliver daily video content to all of our members before the market opens each day. Our objective is to make you a better trader and to help you find successful setups to create greater success. Visit our website to learn how we can help you become a better trader today.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

U.S. Markets Moving Higher Until November 2018 - Part I

Our trading partners at The Technical Traders Ltd. have been laboring over the recent market moves attempting to identify if and when the market may be likely to turn lower or contract. They’ve been pouring over all types of various data from numerous sources and have concluded the following is the most likely outcome for when the US stock markets may find a reason to pause of contract.

As you read this research post, please allow us a brief introduction of the facts that supported our research.

                              Source: Palisade Research

First, our research team started this investigative work after watching the Buffet Indicator climb from the 2015-16 rotation levels to new highs and achieve some recent news events. This indicator, being one of Warren Buffett’s favorite tools for understanding market valuations in comparison to debt levels provides some interesting components for our team to study. Yet, we believed this indicator chart lacked something relating to the global markets and the use of the debt capital to spur future global economic activity.

Therefore, our team went off in search of something that could help us rationalize these high Buffet Indicator levels in true relation to the global markets and in relation to the capital shift that we believe is currently taking place throughout the planet. The first component of our assumption about the global markets is that capital is rushing away from riskier markets and towards more stable markets. The second component of our assumption is that national debt obligations are being re-evaluated based on perceived risks and contagion issues throughout the globe. The last component of our assumption is that the new US President is shaking up quite a bit of the old constructs throughout the globe and that the processes and policies put in place by President Trump are creating a very dynamic global capital market environment at the moment.

When you consider these three components and their combined results on the global capital markets, we have to understand that there is a very strong possibility that the largest GDP producing countries on the planet, and their banking, institutional and investor classes, are all operating within some aspect of these three components. This means there is a potential for at least $7 to $15 Trillion (10~20% of total global GDP) US Dollars that are actively sourcing and seeking secure returns while avoiding risks and debt contagion. This is a massive capital shift that is taking place currently – likely the largest the planet has ever seen.

As the Buffet Indicator is showing, the US stock market is nearing or passing all-time highs in valuation in relation to US debt levels. Yet, how does the Buffet Indicator correlate the global capital shift that is taking place and equate these dynamics into fair value. The US market, being the likely target of this massive capital shift, is a fair source for valuations comparisons, but we are experiencing a capital shift that has never before been seen at the levels we are currently experiencing. Sure, there have been shifts of capital before – but not at the $10 to 20 trillion USD level.

If we compare the Buffet Indicator to this Fred Global Stock Market Capitalization to GDP chart, some interesting facts begin to take shape. First, the peaks in 1974, 1999, 2008 and 2018 on the Buffet Indicator are not as evident on this chart. The 1974 peak is relatively nonexistent. The 1999 peak is a much more muted (28%) peak than on the Buffet Indicator chart and the 2008 and 2018 peaks are relatively correlated to the Buffet Indicator chart. One should be asking the question, “why are the two most recent peaks more correlated than previous peaks on this global capitalization to GDP chart?”. Our answer to that question is that after the 1999~2000 US market peak, the globe entered into a much more cooperative economic phase with the EU, China, South America and many other nations operating as global peers vs. global competitors. It was after this time that the capital markets began to “sync” in some form to the central banks policies and the unification processes that were taking place throughout the globe.

We should, therefore, assume that any global market contagion or crisis will likely take place in some measured form throughout nearly all global markets when it happens. Additionally, as regional debt or capital market crisis events occur in certain nations, capital that was deployed in these nations or capital markets will likely rush to new, safer environments for periods of time. Capital is always hunting for the safest and most secure returns while attempting to avoid risk and devaluation.

The central bank policies of the past two decades have allowed a massive increase in the available capital throughout the globe. Global GDP has risen from $33.57 Trillion in 2000 to $80.68 Trillion today – a whopping 140% increase in only 18 years. Historically, global GDP has risen by approximately these levels every 15~20 year for the past 50+ years. This is likely the result of the US moving away from the Gold standard and foreign nations following along with fiat currency central banks since after the 1960s-70s.

This tells us that the peak in 2000 on this global capital market to GDP chart resulted in a moderately isolated capital market peak that was uniquely available within the US and major economies – not globally. The 2008 peak represented a more globally equal capital market peak. This means the majority of the global capital market experienced capital appreciation. The same thing is happening right now – the global markets are experiencing an overall capital market appreciation that is a result of the past 20+ years of central bank policies and economic recovery efforts.

Stay Tuned for PART II Next with Charts and Trading Analysis!

53 years experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

Technical Analysis and Rates Unchanged – Here We Go

The U.S. Federal Reserve is one of the only central banks to attempt to raise rates consistently over the past few years, has possibly learned a very valuable lesson – no good comes from raising rates to the point of causing another market collapse. The news that the US Fed will leave interest rates where they are, temporarily, is good news for a number of reasons.

First, this allows the markets to shake out weaker players and weaker components of the corporate world. Where corporate debt levels are concerned, interest rates are tied to debt repayment liabilities and refinancing costs. Firms that are unable to manage at current interest rates certainly would not be happy about rising rates. This allows these corporations to either struggle to resolve their debt issues or collapse under the weight of their own debt. This will also play out in the foreign markets as well.

Second, it allows the housing market and private debt markets to shake out some of the “at risk” consumers. We authored an article a few months ago about how foreclosures and pre-foreclosures were starting to increase in nearly all markets. At the time, many people in the real estate field shrugged off these increases as par for the course. With the decreasing foreign investment in real estate and the increasing pressures on the local consumer markets, we saw a dramatic slowdown in housing starts and sales activities recently. This is because the demand side of the market is falling much faster than the supply capacity.

The uncertainty in the foreign markets, global central banks, and foreign investments have prompted many people to pull out of the local markets – even the hot markets. The at-risk consumers that were trying to sell near this top suddenly found the buyers were just not there or ready to make the commitment. This put the at-risk consumers in a difficult position as they could not flip their houses as easily as they could 6 months ago.

Yet, in the global equity markets, investors can sell or buy with much faster transaction times – at the click of a mouse button in most cases. This allows equity investors to pull capital away from risky investments and migrate that capital into more secure investments in a matter of minutes or hours – not weeks or months. And that is exactly what has been happening over the past 30+ days in the global markets.

Capital is repositioning for the next phase of this market; where the US economy is strong, housing continues to weaken and at-risk consumers continue to feel the pressures of the US Fed interest rate policies. Where foreign consumers attempt to deal with their own version of “central bank hell” and asset devaluations in an attempt to find more secure investment vehicles for their capital. Money market funds, investment funds and, of course, the US value/blue-chip equities are looking very promising right about now.

This Daily SPY chart shows our recent ADLC indicator (price cycle turning points) and our oversold extreme price levels shaded with lime green. When these two things align the market tends to rally for 1-3 days with strong momentum. During pre-market last week, we told our followers that the big gap lower in price was going to be bought and price should rally for 2-3 days, which is exactly what has unfolded thus far.

Global capital will continue to rush into the US markets as long as the US Fed does not do anything to derail things. Our research team believes the US Fed may even decrease the interest rates by 0.25% before the end of the year depending on how much pressure is placed on the economy by these “at risk” participants.

We will continue to keep you updated as to our findings and we want to urge you to visit The Technical Traders Free Market Research to read all of our most recent research posts. You really owe it to yourself to understand what is happening in the global markets right now and how we have continued to stay 30-60 days ahead of these moves for our valued members. There are so many opportunities setting up in the markets for traders it is almost hard to understand the dynamics at play right now. If you want a dedicated team of researchers and traders to help you navigate these markets, then visit The Technical Traders to learn how we can provide you with even more detailed daily research and support.

Chris Vermeulen

How the Fall in Crude Oil Price is Affecting the Gold Market

Gold prices started to fall following a stronger dollar and falling oil prices. The precious yellow metal lost more than 10% since its peak of $1,365.23 (C$1791.82) in April. Apart from falling oil prices, higher US interest rates are contributing to gold’s decline.

“In this environment where we also see oil prices falling, and so less concern from investors about rising inflation, that’s another negative for the gold price,” said Senior Analyst at Danske Bank in Copenhagen Jens Pedersen. “There are still some concerns about the geopolitical environment…so if these stories start to flare up again, it could lead investors back into gold.”

Gold and oil have a high correlation, meaning both commodities move together in the same direction. A strong dollar is an indicator that gold and oil prices will fall since both assets have an indirect correlation with the greenback.

Brent crude oil hit a 3 month low in July after a rise in US crude inventories recorded an increase in global supply and weak global demand. Crude oil fell by $0.49 (C$0.64) in an intraday low of $93.64 (C$0.64) a barrel — its lowest since April 17.

In response, gold also traded lower. The precious metal hit a 6 month low as the US dollar moved higher. Fears of an escalating trade war between the US and China did very little to support the increasing prices of gold. Based on FXCM’s gold prices, an ounce of gold only costs around $1,218 (C$1,598) – a sharp slide considering the prices of the precious metal in June, which was at $1,277 (C$1,676).

As for oil, the energy market recorded a slight price increase for crude as the US asked its trade partners to stop importing oil from Iran. The intraday trading for oil remained positive for MCX Gold but the upside is predicted to be limited to its current key resistance levels.

Higher interest rates tend to push the dollar up and make dollar denominated gold more expensive for investors. Gold is often seen as a safe haven asset, which is why it does not move in the same direction with the USD. A weakness in oil demand means that investors are putting more of their money in the dollar. High-interest rates make dollar investments attractive, weakening the demand in global commodities such as oil and gold.

“With the dollar on a solid footing, gold prices should stay pressured lower for the foreseeable future,” said Oanda’s Asia/Pacific Trade Chief Stephen Innes. “Gold has wholly lost its appeal in this enduringly bullish equity and dollar environment.”

Oil and gold’s correlation was discovered as early as 1983. Based on Tableu’s infographic, there have been 5 key moments in both commodities’ relationship that shows its direct correlation. In August 2011, gold skyrocketed to record highs and had peaked to $1,814 (C$2,380) due to a weak dollar and economic uncertainty. In the mid-2000s, the combination of declining production and increasing demand in Asia sent the prices of gold up. However, the 2008 global financial crisis caused a bubble-bursting trend, and both commodities’ prices declined by 78.1% from July to December.

As the US trade war with China, Canada, and Europe shows no sign of abating in the near future, investors will be looking to see if this does eventually have a positive impact on the price of gold and crude oil.

Follow Chris Vermeulen's Oil and Gold Trade Signals with his "Wealth Building Newsletter"

Get it Right Here

Bitcoin Rallies to Upper Channel - What Next?

Even we were concerned with Bitcoin briefly traded below $6k in late June. Yet, the recent upside price move was incredibly quick and the price of Bitcoin ran right up to our upper price channel. We believe this will become a new price peak over the next few days/weeks where the price of Bitcoin should continue to drop from these levels near $7500. We know there are many Bitcoin investors that want to hear us state that it should continue to push higher, but there are other factors at play here that may limit this movement.

The price channels that are currently constraining the price of Bitcoin originate back in February and March of 2018. The low and high price rotation within these months start the points of interest for our research team. From these points, we have continued to identify key price levels that appear to contain breakouts.

You can see from the chart below, the upper BLUE channel line is our downward sloping price channel that is acting like an upper ceiling for the price. Additionally, you can see our “drawn Red and Green arrows” showing what we believed Bitcoin would potentially do over the next few months. We believed that Bitcoin, as it traded lower, towards $6k, may find support and rally (based on our time/price cycles) towards a peak near July 16 (showing as the end of the Green Arrow). From this point, we believe the price of Bitcoin will trail off, heading lower, with the intent to retest channel support near $5700 if the price cannot break through and hold above the blue upper channel.

This longer term daily Bitcoin chart shows a larger picture of our analysis work. You can clearly see the channels that are constraining price at the moment – the BLUE support channel and the RED resistance channel. The most recent lows established a new lower price point for the Blue channel – which indicated a downward sloping pennant formation is in place.

There are two things we want to caution Bitcoin investors and traders about. First, the rotation that we are expecting to complete this pennant formation could happen very quickly within a fairly tight range ($7400 to $5700). For traders, this is an excellent range for some quick profits. For investors, this could create some stress as price rotates.

Second, by our estimates, at least one more low price rotation is required before any real breakout will be attempted. If our analysis is correct, this current price peak will end with prices falling back below $6k, forming another “lower bottom” and rallying again to near the upper price channel (near $6700 or so) before trailing off for the last time – nearing the apex of the pennant formation. We believe the current outcome of this price setup will be a low price breakout, forming a potential wave 5 that should end near or below $5500. After that bottom is reached, we should be looking for a new bottom formation setting up a new advancement leg higher.

Could our analysis change, of course, it could depending on what price action shows us. Right now, this pennant formation and the wave counts are driving our analysis. The Time/price cycle analysis helps us to determine when and where price target/peaks/troughs may happen, but they are not set in stone. If you are a trader and are long Bitcoin, this may be the highest price you will see over the next few months.

 If you are an investor and think this is the start of a bigger move higher – we don’t agree with you. We believe we are very close to the final leg lower that should form the new price bottom – at least for a while. Once this bottom forms, we’ll be able to provide a better understanding of what we believe will happen in the future. For right now, our target low for the bottom is $4400 on or near August 20, 2018. We’ll see how it plays out.

We keep a close eye using our proprietary ADL Fibonacci and ADL Cycle forecasting systems using the Bitcoin investment trust which trades like a stock/ETF, the symbol is: GBTC.

If you want to learn how we can help you stay ahead of these global market moves and help you plan for and execute greater trades, please visit The Technical Traders site to learn how we assist you. We offer comprehensive research, analysis, daily video, trading signals and much more to our valued subscribers. We also offer access to our specialized proprietary price modeling systems that have proven to be timely and accurate.

Let’s Look at the Three Issues That Might Drive Crude Oil Lower

Crude Oil has been a major play for some traders over the past few months. With price, rotation ranges near $5~$7 and upside pressure driving a price assent from below $45 to nearly $75 peaks. This upside price move has been tremendous.

Over the past few weeks, many things have changed in the fundamentals of the Oil market. Supply continues to outpace demand, trade tariffs and slowing global economies are now starting to become real concerns, foreign suppliers have continued to increase production, US Dollar continues to strengthen and social/political unrest is starting to become more evident in many foreign nations.

In fact, we felt so strongly that big downside move in crude oil was about to happen we posted a warning to oil traders two days before the drop started.

When we consider what could happen with oil in the future with regards to over-supply and the potential for constricting global markets, we have to understand that support will likely be identified at levels that are much lower than current price – possibly below $60. Yet, at the same time, we must understand that disruptions in supply and/or regional chaos, such as war or political turmoil, in specific regions could cause the price of oil to skyrocket as these disruptions continue.

RIGHT NOW, THREE KEY ISSUES ARE DRIVING OIL LOWER

* A stronger US Dollar is making it more expensive for foreign nations to purchase Oil on the open market as well as moving capital away from foreign local investments and migrating capital into the US Equities markets

* Supply issues (the increased capacity for greater supply) is resulting in a glut of oil available on the open market when we have dozens of supply ships still waiting to offload throughout the world. In other words, we have an over-supply of oil at the moment.

* A lack of any urgency or crisis event to support Oil above $65 at the moment. Given the slow, but consistent, transition towards cleaner more energy efficient vehicles and energy as well as the lack of any real conflict or crisis event to disrupt supply, it appears there is no real support for Oil above $65 – at least so far.

DAILY CRUDE LIGHT CHART

This Daily Crude Light chart shows a simple price channel that correlates recent price lows into a channel and shows a Fibonacci Retracement range for recent price rotations. We can see that the price of Crude is holding just above the 50% retracement level right now and any breach below $70 would be a very strong downside price breakout. Should price drop below $68, we could see a selloff to below $64 as price may attempt to establish a new “price low” to the downside.

MONTHLY CRUDE CHART

This Monthly Crude chart below shows us where we believe support and resistance price zones are located. You can see from the highlighted areas that resistance is located between $70~86 and support is located between $44~56 on this longer-term monthly chart. You can also see that the Fibonacci retracement levels for the current upside move are currently nearing 55~57% (above the 50% level and nearing the 61.8% level). The combination factor that Crude has recently rotated lower, near the upper price channel, within the resistance zone, above 50% and nearing 61.8% Fibonacci level, strongly suggests that we could see a stronger downside price swing in the near future. Until $60 is breached, consider this move simple rotation. Once $60 is breached to the downside, then consider this a deeper downside price move.

With so many factors in play throughout the world, one has to be aware that Crude Oil is a commodity that correlates to expected economic activities, global crisis events, and supply/demand factors. Right now, an almost perfect storm is setting up for Oil to continue to fall to new lows which will likely push Crude below $60 ppb (eventually) and may push it down to near $55 ppb (our upper support zone). We caution traders/investors through – any crisis news item, war or other disruption in supply could dramatically alter the factor that makes up this price prediction. Right now, without any of these issues, we see Oil continuing to fall towards the $60 price level.

Also, visit The Technical Traders Free Market Research to read all of our most recent free research posts. We believe you’ll quickly see the value in what we provide our members and our visitors by reading and understanding how we have continued to stay ahead of these market moves for months.

53 years experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

Get our advanced research and market reporting, Daily market videos, detailed trading signals and join the hundreds of other traders that follow our research every day and profit.

Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders Ltd.