Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Crude oil's rebound from 72.43 was limited at 78.04 last week and fall from 83.95 then resumed by diving to as low as 69.50 before closing at 71.19. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and deeper decline should now be seen to 100% projection of 83.95 to 72.43 from 78.04 at 66.52 next. On the upside, above 73.94 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside should be limited below 78.04 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line support added much credence to the case of reversal. Medium term rise from 33.2, which is treated as a correction to fall from 147.27, should have completed at 83.95 already, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Current fall from 83.95 should extend through 68.59 support towards next key cluster level at 58.32 (50% retracement of 33.2 to 83.95 at 58.58). Decisive break there will strongly suggest that whole decline from 147.27 is resuming for a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 78.04 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.....
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Phil Flynn: PIGS in Space

When I go down on the trading floor and talk about pigs, normally I am referring to hogs or pork bellies. But this week is something different. We'll focus our attention on Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain. Or you can exchange or add another I if you want to throw in Italy. In this case PIGS - or PIIGS - is not the other white meat, but a cause of great concern on the global economic scene.

Portugal now seems to be the main epicenter of the constantly shifting risk factors in the ongoing global economic crisis. Even casual observers of the global market place have been aware of the recent problems growing in the Eurozone particularly with Greece. The massive debt in Greece has roiled the global market for most of the year and now there are fears that their problems may be spreading throughout the region. Oh sure, the other countries within the designation PIGS or PIIGS if you prefer, did not want to be coupled together with Greece perhaps because they did not want to be part of something called PIGS or because they were fearful that the association with Greece and their problems could spread to them faster than a winter cold. Spain’s Finance Minister Elena Salgado was one of the first to speak out and said that Spain's situation is not like that of Greece. Yet earlier this week it seems that when one of these little PIGS’s went to the market and found that things were not that good.

The market really got fearful after Portugal basically had a failed bond auction. The Portuguese treasury and Government Debt Agency tried to sell €500 million in 12 month bills but was only able to sell €300 million. This raised concern that buyers of debt are getting tired of getting low rates of return when sovereign countries credit worthiness is not what should be. Last year Portugal’s debt was 9% of its GDP and with a potential softening in the EURO zone, bond buyers think that their chances to be paid back might not be that good. Obviously that means that bond buyers will demand a higher rate of return to take on more risk thus ultimately driving up interest rates in Portugal and throughout the region as debt strapped nations vie for capital to fund their out of control spending.....Read the entire article.

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Oil Futures Plunge, Bond Markets Vote America

Statsweeper registered alerts across the entire WTI oil futures complex yesterday.

Prices fell dramatically, with all six of the nearest contracts down over 5%. Four-month futures took the biggest percentage dive, dropping 5.6% from $78.60 to $74.21 per barrel.

Front month futures fell 5.1%, from $77 to $73.06.



As widely reported, the fall in WTI was part of a larger sell off in commodities. Triggered by strengthening of the U.S. dollar.

With all the focus on yesterday's selling, there was less press on the things being bought. Most notably U.S. Treasury notes.

Alerts registered for falling yields on three-, five- and ten-year Treasury securities. Yields plunged as traders piled into these investments, driving up prices.

This is significant. Many analysts recently predicted investors would shun U.S. government debt as America's deficit spending rises and the nation's monetary base remains ballooned by more than $1 trillion compared to just 18 months ago.

But it appears when the markets get shaky, buyers still see U.S. bonds as the safe haven investment of choice.

Particularly interesting was investors' choice of Treasuries. Yields fell most notably for the three year note, dropping nearly 7% to 1.34% yield. This is the lowest yield registered since late December 2009.



Buying was also strong on the five-year note, which fell 4.6% to 2.29% yield. And the ten-year, falling 2.9% to 3.62% yield.

This contrasts with previous "flight to safety" buying of Treasuries, where purchases were focused on short-dated notes and bills. Often with maturities of 52 weeks or less.

Bill yields did fall yesterday. With the 52 week bill down 12.1% to 0.29% yield. But overall buying of these securities hasn't been as strong as might be anticipated.

52 week bills are still trading in the same range that's prevailed over the last few weeks. By contrast, two-, three- and five-year note yields appear to have broken resistance, moving markedly lower than recent trading ranges yesterday.



If this trend continues, it suggest investors are willing to lock in their money with the U.S. government for longer periods than they were previously comfortable with. A big vote of confidence for America and the U.S. dollar.

From The Staff at Oil Price .Com

Statsweeper is the financial community's premier data monitoring engine. The site tracks commodities, economics and finance data from around the globe, and alerts investors to critical changes and emerging trends. Visit www.statsweeper.com for more, and sign up for Pierce Points daily e-letter (www.piercepoints.com) for commentary on what the data mean for your commodities investments.
info@statsweeper.com

The information provided here is based on data collected by www.statsweeper.com and is intended solely for informative purposes and is not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade any securities or commodities named herein. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is in no way assured. All materials and related graphics provided herein and any other materials which are referenced herein are provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. No assurance of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Readers using the information contained herein are solely responsible for verifying the accuracy thereof and for their own actions and investment decisions.
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Where is Oil Headed Next week?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed next week.




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Crude Oil Bears Take a Clear Advantage Into The Weekend

I must admit, I have been looking forward to posting my bear waiting for his steak dinner, and it looks like he is getting it. Crude oil closed lower on Friday and tested the 87% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 69.58. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends the decline off January's high, September's low crossing at 67.46 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.85 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 74.36
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.85

First support is today's low crossing at 69.50
Second support is September's low crossing at 67.46

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Natural gas closed higher on Friday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.489 confirming that a low has been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends today's rally, the reaction high crossing at 5.804 is the next upside target. Closes below Thursday's low crossing at 5.227 would temper the near term friendly outlook.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.598
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.804

First support is Thursday's low crossing at 5.227
Second support is last week's low crossing at 5.060

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The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Friday as it extended this week's rally above the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 79.71. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways prices are possible near term.

If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.47 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 80.82
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 81.32

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.34
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.47

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Crude Oil Futures Fluctuate in New York After U.S. Unemployment Rate Drops

Crude oil fluctuated after a government report showed the U.S. unexpectedly lost jobs last month while the unemployment rate declined.

Oil rose as much as 1.1 percent and slipped 0.9 percent after the Labor Department report was released in Washington. Employment fell by 20,000 in January as the jobless rate dropped to 9.7 percent, the lowest level since August. Prices plunged 5 percent yesterday, the biggest decrease since July 29.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty about how to interpret the payroll data,” said Tom Bentz, a senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. “After yesterday’s big drop the market looks shaky, and it will be hard to maintain any moves higher.”

Crude oil for March delivery declined 8 cents to $73.06 a barrel at 10:38 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures were little changed this week and are up 77 percent from a year ago.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.1 percent to 1,064.35. The dollar climbed 0.3 percent versus the euro to $1.3677, from $1.3723 yesterday.

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Goldman: Oil Will Get Expensive Now That The Tankers Are Done Hoarding It

Goldman's David Greely is making a near-term bullish case for oil. His optimism is driven by A) The strong U.S. ISM Manufacturing data we had two days back, B) the fact that renewed Nigerian violence threatens supply, and C) the reduction in overhang caused by oil hoarded at sea in tankers (floating storage).

While the relationship appears far from perfect, he argues that U.S. oil demand tends to track ISM Manufacturing Index readings:

Most interestingly for short-term traders, Falling floating storage implies a tighter market, since less supply is basically out there ready to be sold into the market.

David Greely @ Goldman: [emphasis added] The area where the improvement in near-term fundamentals has been most pronounced in recent weeks is in the amount of oil in floating storage. The use of tankers to store excess supplies of crude oil and gasoil over the past year has been emblematic of the weakness in supply demand fundamentals during the recession, and the unloading of these tankers has been broadly viewed as a necessary precursor to a cleanup over the overall oil market.

Consequently, reports that anywhere from 0 to 50 million barrels of the total oil in floating storage has been recently unloaded have suggested a potential turn around in oil market fundamentals.



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Crude Oil Higher on Better then Expected Unemployment Numbers, Short Covering

Crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.94 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Crude oil pivot point, our line in the sand is 74.24

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 74.53
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.94

First support is Thursday's low crossing at 72.42
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.70

The "Super Cycle" in Gold and How It Will Affect Your Pocketbook in 2010

Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates above the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.378. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional strength is possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.487 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919 is the next downside target.

Friday's pivot point for natural gas is 5.381

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.487
Second resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 5.558

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 5.060
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919

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The U.S. Dollar was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally above the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.45 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 80.59
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.31
econd support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.45

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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Friday

Crude oil's rebound from 72.43 should have completed at 78.04 already and fall from 83.95 is resuming. Break of 72.43 low will target 68.59 support next. On the upside, above 74.50 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 78.04 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development revives the case that medium term rise from 33.2 has topped out at 83.95 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Break of 68.59 will confirm this case and target 58.32 support next. On the upside, however, above 78.04 resistance will dampen this view and argue that the medium term rise might still be in progress. Nevertheless, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to look of reversal signal as crude oil approaches 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Despite Sell Off in Oil, Bulls Maintain a Slight Near Term Advantage

Crude oil closed sharply lower on Thursday as a result of today's bearish jobs data, which leaves any economic recovery in question. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish despite today's decline signaling that a low might be near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.42 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.70 is the next downside target.

Crude oil's pivot point for Thursday evening is 74.19

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.42
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of January's decline crossing at 78.43

First support is today's low crossing at 72.42
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.71

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Natural gas closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidates above the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.407. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.501 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919 is the next downside target.

Thursday evenings pivot point for natural gas is 5.398

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.501
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.804

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 5.060
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919

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The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Thursday and above the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 79.71. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways prices are possible near term.

If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.32 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 80.13
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 81.32

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.12
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.32

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Phil Flynn: Worms in Space

Yesterday the petroleum markets were all about trying to digest the weekly inventory reports. Refineries are running at the lowest level since the 1980’s if you exclude time when refineries were shut down for hurricanes and this shows that demand is lousy. Yet at the same time there are fears that we are finally getting down to a point where refiners have cut back enough to meet slowing demand. Despite this fascinating study of supply versus demand, we will get more into what really made the market pop and drop and that was a story from the AP that was released again by the AFP on the Dow Jones commodity wire.

A breaking oil market seemed to rally quickly after a headline crossed that said, “WHITE HOUSE: Reported rocket launch by Iran would be a provocative act.” Oh my gosh! Rocket launch! What was that, Get Me Out! Well that seemed to be the reaction or a higher buy got triggered but the story had come out earlier. The report did say that the White House reported a rocket launch by Iran would Be a "provocative act.", but the White House was still checking out reports of the launch. The Kavoshgar 3 (Explorer) rocket was launched Wednesday, Iranian state-owned Al-Alam television reported.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Drops the Most in 6 Months as Stocks Tumble, Dollar Strengthens

Crude oil tumbled the most in six months as the dollar gained and a drop in stocks bolstered skepticism that the economic recovery will be sustained. Oil fell as much as 5.4 percent as the greenback climbed versus the euro, curbing the appeal of commodities as an alternate investment. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped after more Americans filed first time claims for unemployment insurance last week, raising concern that an improvement in the job market is stalling.

“Oil is down because of the dollar’s strength and the poor fortunes of the S&P, especially after the jobs report,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “The whole commodity sector is looking weak today.” Crude oil for March delivery fell $3.83, or 5 percent, to $73.15 a barrel at 11:49 a.m. New York time. Oil declined as much as $4.12 to $72.86, and is heading for the biggest daily drop since July 29. Prices are up 81 percent from a year ago.

“Everything on the screen is red because of negative economic news,” said Chip Hodge, who oversees a $9 billion natural resource bond portfolio as senior managing director at MFC Global Investment Management in Boston. “Unless the economy rebounds, prices should move in one direction, south.” The dollar climbed to the highest level against the euro since May after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the economic outlook is subject to “uncertainty.”

The dollar traded at $1.3745 per euro, up from $1.3893 yesterday. It traded earlier at $1.3728, the highest level since May 21.

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Trends for Stocks & Commodities: Gold, Oil and Indexes

Stocks and metals have been on a steady rise this week. The US Dollar drifting lower has helped to add fuel to the oversold bounce in equities and metals we are seeing.

Stocks – NYSE 65 Minute Chart
Stocks have started to show signs of a possible reversal to the upside. So far this week we have seen the major indices form a higher high and as of today are stuck under the key resistance level shown on the chart below. The rally seen this week has been on light volume indicating there is not much strength behind it at this time.

If buying volume picks up and we see the NYSE break this resistance level then money should start to pour back into the market as the first set up of higher highs and lows will have formed and that is the definition of an up trend.



Gold – 24 Hour Trading Chart Using 8 Hour Bars
This chart allows us to look far enough back to see key support and resistance levels. Today we saw gold sell down with rising volume which is bearish.



Oil – 10 Hour Candle Chart
The Oil fund is currently in the same situation as gold. It had a nice rally/bounce which was expected from the rather large sell off over the past couple weeks.



US Dollar Index – 2 Hour Chart
This chart shows the dollar rally that triggered the recent sell off in gold & silver from Jan 25th to Jan 31st. So far in February, the dollar has drifted lower into a support level and bounced sharply on Wednesday. This is very bullish price action and points to higher dollar prices in the near future.



Stock & Commodity Trading Conclusion:
In short, stocks and metals rallied on light volume which is a sign of weakness. They are both stuck under a key resistance level and selling volume has started to pickup. To add more logs to the fire, the US Dollar appears to be picking up speed for another surge higher in the next couple days.

All of this leads me to believe this weeks rally is just a dead cat bounce and lower prices are just around the corner. But, because the 60 minute intraday charts have made a higher high, the down trend is now in question. When in doubt, just stay out. During possible tops or bottoms I find it best to stay clear of the market, even for day traders unless there are very strong price and volume surges occurring.

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Crude Oil Drops a Second Day on U.S. Inventory Gains, Stronger Dollar

Crude oil declined for a second day after a U.S. government report yesterday showed a bigger than forecast increase in inventories, while a stronger dollar dulled the appeal of commodities. The Energy Department reported that crude stockpiles rose by 2.32 million barrels last week, compared with an expected 400,000 barrel gain, as refineries operated at their lowest rate outside of a hurricane period since 1989. Supplies of distillate fuels such as heating oil declined less than forecast.

“Strong contraction in distillate demand, which belies the recovery in the U.S. suggested by the latest GDP and manufacturing data, is weighing on sentiment,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity derivatives research at BNP Paribas SA in London. “It will be the second half of the year before oil breaks its range centered around $75 and sustainably rallies.” Crude oil for March delivery fell as much as 88 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $76.10 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $76.35 at 1:21 a.m. London time. Futures, which gained 78 percent in 2009, are down 3 percent so far this year.

Crude declined in tandem with European stock indexes. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index slipped 0.9 percent to 247.21 as of 1:22 p.m. in London, erasing an earlier gain of 0.3 percent, led by losses among companies in Greece, Portugal and Spain.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Pivot, Support and Resistance Numbers For Thursday Morning

Crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last week's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this week's rally, the 50% retracement level of January's decline crossing at 78.43 is the next upside targets. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 74.96 would temper the near term friendly outlook.

Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 77.18

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 78.04
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of January's decline crossing at 78.43

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 74.96
Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 72.43

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Natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rebound off last week's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that additional strength is possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.500 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919 is the next downside target.

Natural gas pivot point for Thursday is 5.446

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.500
Second resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 5.558

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 5.060
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919

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The U.S. Dollar was higher overnight and is trading above the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.31 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 79.89
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.09
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.31

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Bulls Lose Some Momentum on Unexpected Oil Inventory Build

Crude oil closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signal that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.95 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.95. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of January's decline crossing at 78.43. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 74.94. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 72.43.

Natural gas closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.527 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.527. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.804. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 5.060. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Wednesday ending a two day correction off Monday's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways prices are possible near term. If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.22 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 79.76. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 81.32. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.97. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.22.

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Crude Oil Falls After Report Shows Bigger Than Forecast U.S. Supply Gain

Crude oil fell after an Energy Department report showed a bigger than forecast increase in stockpiles as refineries idled units and imports climbed. Supplies rose 2.32 million barrels to 329 million last week, the report showed. A 400,000 barrel gain was forecast, according to the median of 16 analyst responses in a Bloomberg news survey. Refineries operated at the lowest rate in more than a year as fuel demand lagged behind year earlier levels.

“The crude number was surprisingly large,” said Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics LLC, an Austin, Texas based energy consultant. Crude oil for March delivery fell 24 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $76.99 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices jumped as much as 81 cents and slipped 71 cents during the session. Oil traded at $77.17 a barrel before the release of the inventory report at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.

Gasoline inventories unexpectedly dropped 1.31 million barrels to 329 million, the report showed. Supplies were 2.3 percent higher than the five year average for the period, according to the department. Stockpiles were forecast to climb by 1.4 million barrels. “The fact that gasoline inventories were down in an environment where demand is so paltry shows that refiners are serious about reducing fuel stockpiles,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Round Earth Capital, a New York based hedge fund that focuses on food and energy commodities.....Read the entire article.

The "Super Cycle" in Gold and How It Will Affect Your Pocketbook in 2010

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Phil Flynn: You Have Got to Love that Groundhog

The Energy Report Wednesday February 3 2010

Maybe that ground hog is something special after all. Oil futures fly after the ground hog say his shadow and predicted 6 more weeks of winter. And by the way no I did not see my shadow and yes I heard that one before. Still oil joined the stock market in the biggest two day rebound in over three months. Oils sudden resurgence comes on the backs of some renewed economic optimism especially in the manufacturing sector but also because of some concerns about the disruption of supply.

RBOB Gasoline lead the rally gaining even more support from refineries that are closing on purpose and some that are not. Oh sure most of the move in oil seemed to be macro economically motivated but word that Valero Energy Corp. shut a fluid catalytic cracker at its Quebec City refinery after a fire sure helped gasoline lead the way. Bloomberg news said that the fire was reported at about 2 a.m. local time at pumps on the gasoline making cat cracker, Bill Day, a company spokesman, said in an e-mail. No injuries were reported. The blaze was extinguished at 4:40 a.m.

The 66,000 barrel a day cat cracker has been shut down and an estimate for the restart of the unit is pending a damage assessment, according to Day. The refinery has a capacity of 265,000 barrels a day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.....Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil: Verge of Collapse?

Stephen Schork, editor of The Schork Report, and Bruce Lanni, of Nollenberger Capital Partners, share their energy outlooks.




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Crude Oil Moves Higher, Signals Turn Bullish

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last week's low. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Tuesday's close above the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.01 confirms that a short term low has been posted.

If March extends this week's rally, the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.90 then the 50% retracement level of January's decline crossing at 78.43 are the next upside targets.

Wednesday's pivot point for crude oil is 76.35

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.90
Second resistance is the overnight high crossing at 78.04

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.01
Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 72.43

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Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it extends the rebound off last week's low crossing at 5.060. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish signaling that additional short covering gains are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.533 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919 is the next downside target.

Natural gas pivot point for Wednesday is 5.457

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.533
Second resistance is overnight high crossing at 5.537

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 5.060
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919

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The U.S. Dollar was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates below resistance marked by the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.19 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 79.76.
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.91
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.19

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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook Wednesday Morning

Crude oil's rebound from 72.43 extends further to as high as 78.04 so far today an breaks mentioned first target of 38.2% retracement of 83.95 to 72.43 at 76.83. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 75.44 minor support holds and further rally could be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 79.55 next. On the downside, though below 75.44 will suggest that rebound from 72.43 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, crude oil managed to hold above medium term trend line support and rebounded strongly from 72.43. The development argues that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet even though upside momentum is clearly diminishing. Another high above 83.95 might still be seen. Nevertheless, as rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to down trend from 147.27, we'd continue to look of reversal signal as crude oil approaches 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. On the downside, break of 72.43 will now be an important signal that crude oil has topped out and will turn focus to 68.59 support for confirmation.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Your Closing Numbers.....Oil, Natural Gas, Heating Oil and Gasoline

Crude oil closed up $2.88 at $77.31 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh two week high on more short covering and fresh speculative buying interest following recent bullish U.S. economic data and cold weather gripping much of the U.S. A steep three week old downtrend on the daily bar chart was negated today. Bulls gained fresh upside near term technical momentum today as it now looks like a big double bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart.

Heating oil closed up 804 points at $2.0353 today. Prices closed near the session high again today on more short covering and fresh speculative buying. The bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.1500.

Unleaded gasoline (RBOB) closed up 888 points at $2.0209 today. Prices closed near the session high on short covering and fresh speculative buying. A steep three week old downtrend on the daily bar chart was negated today.

Natural gas closed up 3.1 cents at $5.464 today. Prices closed near mid range today and were supported on more short covering in a bear market and some cold weather in the U.S. forecast. Bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $5.80.

The U.S. dollar index closed down 24 points at 79.18 today. Prices closed near the session low on more profit taking. No chart damage has occurred. Bulls still have some upside near term technical momentum.

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Where is Crude Oil Headed Wednesday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




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New Video: Crude Oil…What Does the Chart Say?

It appears as though crude oil has an amazing cyclic quality that can be timed quite accurately with MarketClub’s “Triangle” technology. In this new short video, I showcase this cycle and how you can take advantage of it.

Just click here to watch the new video and as always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. All we ask for is that you comment on this video if you find it interesting and informative.

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Crude Oil....What Does the Chart Say?

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Is a Short Term Low In For Crude Oil? Here's the Numbers

Crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 74.82 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March extends this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.70 is the next downside target.

Crude oil's pivot point for Tuesday, our line in the sand is 73.95

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 75.44
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.13

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 72.43
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.70

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Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it extends the rebound off last week's low crossing at 5.060. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish signaling that additional short covering gains are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.535 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919 is the next downside target.

Tuesday's pivot point for natural gas is 5.373

First resistance is overnight high crossing at 5.491
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.535

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 5.060
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of natural gas ETF UNG

The U.S. Dollar was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates below resistance marked by the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.13 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 79.76
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.88
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.13

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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Tuesday

Break of 75.04 resistance argues that a short term bottom is formed at 72.43 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Intraday bias is flipped back to the upside and stronger rebound should be seen towards 38.2% retracement of 83.95 to 72.43 at 76.83 first. On the downside, though, a break below 72.43 will indicate that fall from 83.95 has resumed for 68.59 key support.

In the bigger picture, the case of medium term reversal continued to build up with fall from 83.95 extended. As noted before, whole medium term rise from 33.2 is viewed as a correction to fall from 147.27 only. Break of trend line support (now at 71/72) level will be the first signal that such rise has completed. Further break of 68.59 will support will confirm this bearish case and will target a retest on 33.2 low as correction down trend from 147.27 resumes. On the upside, though, in case of another rise, crude oil we'd continue to look of reversal signal as crude oil approaches 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Crude Oil Rises for a Second Day on Increase in U.S. Manufacturing

Crude oil rose for a second day in New York after manufacturing in the U.S. increased at the fastest pace since August 2004, signaling that fuel use in the world’s biggest energy consuming country may gain.

Oil advanced the most in four weeks yesterday after the Institute for Supply Management’s factory index climbed to a higher than anticipated 58.4 in January, from December’s 54.9. European manufacturing also increased as companies raised output to meet reviving global demand, a separate report showed. Energy Department data tomorrow may show a drop in U.S. distillate fuel inventories.

“We can see that manufacturing is improving,” said Jonathan Barratt, managing director at Commodity Broking Services Pty in Sydney. “We now want to see that number backed up with good fundamentals in the inventory data.”

Crude oil for March delivery gained as much as $1.01, or 1.4 percent, to $75.44 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $74.83 at 11:59 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract rose 2.1 percent to settle at $74.43, the biggest one day increase since Jan. 4.

The U.S. manufacturing figure exceeded the median forecast of 55.5 from 67 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Readings higher than 50 signal an expansion. Manufacturing accounts for about 12 percent of the economy.

European companies raised production in January as a global economic recovery spurred exports. An index of manufacturing in the 16 nation euro region climbed to 52.4 from 51.6 in December, London based Markit Economics said yesterday. Asian shares climbed, driving the MSCI Asia Pacific Index up the most in more than two weeks.....Read the entire article.

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New Video: Oil May Have Seen Short Term Bottom

Crude prices may have seen a short term bottom and keep an eye on indium as the metal has potential for sky high prices, says John Licata, chief investment strategist at Blue Phoenix. He speaks to Bill Evans of Westpac, Kumar Palghat of Kapstream Capital and CNBC's Karen Tso.




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Crude Oil High Range Close Brings Out The Over Confident Bulls

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signal that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.47 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Crude oil Pivot point for Monday evening is 74.16

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.23
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.47

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 72.43
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.70

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO

Natural gas closed higher on Monday as it rebounds off the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.114. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.555 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919 is the next downside target.

Natural gas pivot point for Monday evening is 5.377

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.434
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.555

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 5.060
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of natural gas ETF UNG

The U.S. Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Monday after testing resistance marked by the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 79.71. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways prices are possible near term.

If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 79.76
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 81.32

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.71
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.06

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New Video: Hot Stocks in The Energy Sector

Stocks in the sector kick off the month with gains, based on higher oil prices and bullish economic data, as well as on Exxon Mobil's earnings. A joint venture in ethanol also is drawing attention. Steve Gelsi reports.



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Crude Rises After Dollar Weakens, Report Shows Gain in Consumer Spending

Crude oil rose after the dollar dropped against the euro and U.S. manufacturing increased at the fastest pace since August 2004, signaling that fuel use in the world’s biggest energy consuming country will gain.

Oil climbed as much as 1.8 percent as the weak dollar bolstered the appeal of commodities. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index advanced to 58.4, higher than anticipated, from December’s 54.9, figures from the Tempe, Arizona-based group showed. A separate report showed that European manufacturing gained last month.

“The first factor at work is the weaker dollar,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “The ISM number was very strong. The strength isn’t just here, European manufacturing is also expanding.”

Crude oil for March delivery rose 95 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $73.84 a barrel at 11:31 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures fell to $72.89 on Jan. 29, the lowest settlement since Dec. 21.

The greenback slipped 0.4 percent versus the euro to $1.3911, from $1.3863 on Jan. 29.

The U.S. manufacturing figure exceeded economists’ median forecast of 55.5, according to 67 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Readings higher than 50 signal an expansion. Manufacturing accounts for about 12 percent of the economy.

European manufacturing also accelerated more than estimated in January. An index of manufacturing in the 16-nation euro region increased to 52.4 from 51.6 in December, London-based Markit Economics said today.....Read the entire article.

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Traders Ditching Oil Hoarded At Sea As Market Tightens

The amount of oil held in tankers at sea has halved from its April 2009 peak of 90 million barrels according to ship broker ICAP. Given that much of this oil was held in order to arbitrage current vs. future oil prices, a reduction in floating storage implies a tightening of the oil market.

WSJ: ICAP said there were currently 21 trading VLCCs offshore with some 43 million barrels of crude. Seven of these are expected to discharge in February and one more in March. So far, it appeared those discharged cargoes wouldn't be replaced by new ones.

"I haven't seen any fixtures for VLCC storage in the last two weeks," said Simon Newman, ICAP's senior tanker analyst. "That would imply that storage looks set to fall in the short term."

Assuming there are no new fixtures, the amount of crude in storage could sink to 27 million barrels by March, the lowest level since the current contango play began in late 2008.

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Weaker Dollar Pushes Crude Oil Higher, Bears Still have The Advantage

Crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.10 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Crude oil pivot point for Monday, our line in the sand is 73.38

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.10
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.41

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 72.43
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.70

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Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends last week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.547 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Monday's pivot point for natural gas is 5.170

First resistance is broken trading range support crossing at 5.327
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.417

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 5.060
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919

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The U.S. Dollar was slightly lower due to light profit taking overnight after testing resistance marked by the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.07 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 79.76
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.73
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.07

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